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#197847 - 03/10/10 09:14 AM
Re: 3/10
[Re: Joeaveragefan]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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PICK 'N' ROLL
Today's best NBA bets
Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat
The Miami Heat don’t have much in their backcourt besides Dwyane Wade but the cupboard is even more bare since Rafer Alston jumped ship.
Carlos Arroyo is manning the point and he’s taking the job seriously. Arroyo has got in the face of some teammates (read Michael Beasley) for not being in the right place offensively.
Beasley doesn’t mind Arroyo aggressive temperament though.
"There's no egos right now on this team," he told the Florida Sun-Sentinel. "With Carlos as the point guard, we understand that when I come back and get the ball, that he's going to get shots, as well, that a lot of guys are going to get shots.”
Beasley scored 22 points on Saturday, just as many as he totaled over his prior three games. Seems like he’s on the same page with Arroyo.
All you need to know about the Clippers is that Drew Gooden is their most productive player right now.
Pick: Heat
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs (-8.5, 207)
If there’s one good thing for the Spurs about Tony Parker’s broken hand it’s that Manu Ginobili will get more touches. Ginobili, who’s been in a funk for most of the season, nearly willed San Antonio to a win over the LeBron James-less Cavs on Monday.
“Manu Ginobili is a bad boy,” Cavs coach Mike Brown told San Antonio Express-News after the game.
The Argentinean scored 38 points dished out five assists and pulled down seven rebounds.
Without Parker running the show, the Spurs don’t push the tempo as much and usually get fewer points in the paint.
The Knicks still love to run ‘n’ gun but Mike D’Antoni is putting out a different starting five almost every game.
Pick: Under
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#197848 - 03/10/10 09:14 AM
Re: 3/10
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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ICE PICKS
Today's best NHL bets
Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks (-177, 5.5)
The Blackhawks were handed a rude awakening by division rival Detroit Sunday. The Red Wings proved to the young Chicago roster that they still run the Central with a 5-4 win.
That game marked the seventh straight game in which the Blackhawks have played over the total. Chicago has averaged more than 4.5 goals during this stretch. And more notable, it has given up an average of almost four goals a night in that same span. Detroit scored all five of their goals in the middle frame of Sunday’s game.
"We seem to let down in the second period, and it's been happening way too much lately," winger Andrew Ladd told the Daily Herald. "It's something we've got to figure out in this room or we're not going to go as far as we want to. We've got to play for 60 minutes instead of in bits and pieces."
It seems the entire club is focusing on playing better defense and putting themselves between the puck and their goaltenders. With Chicago tightening up on the blueline, goals could be tougher to come by Wednesday night.
Pick: Under
Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres (-193, 5.5)
If American sports fans didn’t know who Ryan Miller was before the Olympics, they know now. The Team USA goaltender, who claimed the tournament MVP at the Vancouver 2010 games, is back on NHL ice and maintaining his high level of play.
Miller was on the Today Show while in New York earlier this week. Buffalo edged the Rangers 2-1 in overtime while Miller stopped 35 shots.
"It felt amazing, usually you go to opposing rinks and hear a lot of boos," Miller told the Today Show. "Hopefully we built some hockey fans."
Miller has made fans out of NHL bettors. He has allowed two or less goals in his past four starts, winning three of those contests. Under bettors are thrilled that Miller has avoided an Olympic hangover like some players, keeping scores below the betting total in all four of those outings.
Pick: Under
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#197849 - 03/10/10 09:15 AM
Re: 3/10
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 10
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
Seton Hall (19-11, 8-16 ATS) vs. Notre Dame (21-10, 14-10-1 ATS)
As the 10th seed, Seton Hall opened tourney play Tuesday, and the Pirates got a big scare from 15th-seeded Providence in an offensive explosion, holding on 109-106 but falling short as a 5½-point favorite. Seton Hall, which had a 29-point second-half lead against the Friars, has won three in a row and seven of nine, and has scored 83 points or more in four straight games – perhaps not surprising considering the Hall is averaging 81.3 ppg (eight nationally) while allowing 75.3. Notre Dame, seeded seventh, is making a late push to reach the Big Dance, despite little contributions from star Luke Harangody. The nation’s No. 2 scorer, at 24.2 ppg, missed five straight games with a knee injury and played just 11 minutes Saturday at Marquette. But the Irish have now won their last four SU and ATS, including a 63-60 overtime upset of the Golden Eagles as a 6½-point road underdog. In the last five games, Mike Brey’s troops have averaged 71.2 ppg and allowed 63.6, cashing in all five. Seton Hall ended a six-game losing streak to Notre Dame with a 90-87 victory laying 5½ points on Feb. 11, with Harangody suffering his knee injury in the second half of the contest. However, the Irish are now 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. The Pirates are 6-7 SU and 5-7 ATS outside of New Jersey (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS on neutral courts), and with last night’s non-cover, they’re on a bundle of pointspread dives, including 6-15 overall, 6-14 in Big East play, 5-13 against winning teams, 2-9 after a SU win and 7-20 on neutral floors. The Irish, who went 6-4-1 SU and 5-7 ATS away from South Bend (1-1 SU and ATS on neutral courts), own positive ATS streaks of 5-0 overall (all in the Big East), 4-0 after a SU or an ATS win, 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Wednesday. However, they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral-site starts. The Hall is on “over” stretches of 4-0 overall (all in conference play), 5-1 at neutral sites and 5-2 after a SU win, and the over is 6-0-1 in Notre Dame’s last seven against winning teams and 7-0-1 in the last eight clashes in this rivalry. The Irish, though, sport “under” runs of 4-0 overall (all inside the Big East), 6-0 at neutral sites, 7-1 after a SU win, 17-4 after a spread-cover and 8-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME
Cincinnati (17-14, 7-19 ATS) vs. Louisville (20-11, 10-16 ATS)
As the No. 11 seed, Cincinnati also had to play on Tuesday and barely got by No. 14 Rutgers, winning 69-68, but in typical fashion failed to cover as an eight-point chalk. Of 330 rated teams, the Bearcats’ 7-19 ATS mark puts them at 329th in the nation. They are 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) on neutral courts this year, averaging 66.0 ppg and giving up 61.0. Louisville is pressing for a Tourney berth, bouncing back from an ill-timed 1-2 SU hiccup to beat No. 1 Syracuse 78-68 Saturday as a one-point home pup, which also halted a 1-4 ATS slide. The sixth-seeded Cards, who won last year’s Big East tournament, have gone 7-3 SU (4-6 ATS) in their last 10 starts, all in the Big East, though on the road this season, they are getting outscored by just over a bucket per game, averaging 69.8 ppg and allowing 72.2. Louisville is 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, but has gone an even 4-4 ATS in that stretch. In this year’s lone meeting, the Cardinalss won 68-60 at home, but Cincy got the cash as a nine-point ‘dog (one of just four spread-covers in Big East play for the Bearcats). The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Bearcats are on ATS freefalls of 4-19 overall, 5-21 in the Big East, 7-20 against winning teams, 8-25 versus teams with a win percentage above .600, 3-9 after a SU win, 1-4 after an ATS setback and 0-6 on Wednesday. The Cardinals have gone 5-11 ATS in their last 16 outings overall, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after a pointspread win and 0-6 ATS in their last six after a SU victory, but they are 47-23-2 ATS in their last 72 Big East outings. The over is 5-2 in Cincinnati’s last seven games following a SU win and 8-1 in Louisville’s last eight Wednesday contests. But Louisville is on “under” surges of 6-2-1 overall (all in the Big East) and 5-1 after a SU win, Cincy is on “under” rolls of 5-1 at neutral sites and 7-3 against winning teams, and the total has gone low in seven of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including three of the last four. January’s contest stayed well short of the 141.5-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City)
Oklahoma (13-17, 10-17 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State (21-9, 14-9-1 ATS)
The 10th-seeded Sooners enter the Big 12 tourney on an eight-game losing streak (2-6 ATS), and Oklahoma’s 10-17 ATS mark for the season rates a lowly 306th among 330 teams. Oklahoma capped the regular season with Saturday’s 69-54 home loss to Texas A&M as a 3½-point underdog. The Sooners averaged 78 ppg at neutral sites this season, but they gave up an average of 81.2 and went 1-3 SU and ATS in those contests. Oklahoma State, seeded seventh, has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses over its last five games, though it routed Nebraska 74-55 Saturday as an 11½-point home chalk, and 11 days ago, the Pokes upended then-No. 1 Kansas 85-77 as a six-point home ‘dog. The Cowboys are averaging 74.4 ppg and giving up 67.6 ppg for the year, and on neutral floors, they put up 70.2 ppg and held foes to just 59.2 ppg on 35. 7 percent shooting, going 3-1 SU and ATS in the process. Oklahoma is 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes in the Bedlam basketball rivalry, but the two teams have split the cash in those meetings. This year, Oklahoma won 62-57 at home in overtime as a 1½-point chalk Jan. 11, and Oklahoma State returned the favor in a 97-76 beatdown laying 8½ points at home on Feb. 13. The Pokes have cashed in three of the last four contests. The Sooners are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-9 overall (all in the Big 12), 1-4 at neutral sites, 1-4 on Wednesday, 3-8 against winning teams and 2-5 after a SU loss. On the flip side, the Cowboys are on ATS rolls of 25-10-1 overall, 21-8-2 on neutral floors, 18-7-1 after a SU win, 16-7 after a spread-cover, 5-2 in the Big 12 and 4-0 against losing teams. The over for Oklahoma is on upticks of 5-0 following a double-digit home loss and 4-1-1 after a non-cover, but the under is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last five Wednesday outings. Also, Oklahoma State is on “over” runs of 6-1 at neutral sites and 16-7 after a SU victory. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
Iowa State (15-16, 15-12-1 ATS) vs. Texas (23-8, 10-17 ATS)
Iowa State, seeded 11th, was on a 1-8 SU nosedive heading into its regular-season finale Saturday, then posted a shocking 85-82 overtime victory against No. 5 Kansas State as an overwhelming 15-point road pup. It was the third straight cover for the Cyclones, who went 8-5 ATS away from Ames this year, though they were 4-9 SU in those contests (1-2 SU and ATS at neutral sites). Texas, the No. 6 seed, won its first 17 games of the year in ascending to No. 1 in the rankings, but has gone just 6-8 SU since then to drop out of the polls entirely. On Saturday at No. 21 Baylor, the Longhorns got rolled 92-77 as a three-point ‘dog, falling to 1-5 ATS in their last six games while taking their first loss in Waco since 1998. Despite its recent woes, Texas still averages 81.7 ppg (fifth nationally), shooting 47.2 percent, while allowing 69.0 ppg on 39.8 percent shooting. Texas has won five in a row in this rivalry (2-3 ATS), including a 90-83 road victory in the only meeting this season, but Iowa State narrowly covered as an eight-point pup in that Jan. 13 contest. The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, all as the underdog. The Longhorns have cashed in five straight neutral-site starts and went 3-0 SU and ATS on neutral courts this year. However, they are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games away from Austin and are on a bundle of additional pointspread freefalls, including 3-15 overall, 5-20-1 in the Big 12, 3-11 after a non-cover, 2-5 after a SU loss and 1-5 against losing teams. The Cyclones are in a 1-5 ATS rut at neutral sites and are 3-7-2 ATS in their last dozen Wednesday games, but they are on ATS surges of 3-0-1 overall (all in the Big 12), 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against winning teams. The under for Iowa State is on stretches of 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-1 after a pointspread win, but the Cyclones are on “over” rolls of 4-0 against winning teams, 16-4-1 at neutral sites and 19-7 after a SU win. In addition, the total has also gone high in Texas’ last five neutral-site outings, and in this rivalry, the over has hit in each of the last four clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Memphis (33-31, 34-29-1 ATS) at Boston (40-22, 24-37-1 ATS)
The Grizzlies look to extend a six-game road winning streak when they make their one and only trip of the season to TD Garden for a battle with the Celtics. Memphis is coming off Monday’s 107-101 home win over New Jersey, though it came up short as an 8½-point favorite. The Grizzlies have won three of their last four and four of their last six, but they’ve followed up a 6-2 ATS run with consecutive non-covers (both as a favorite). Memphis has won six straight road games both SU and ATS, and the visitor is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 contests. Boston took a four-game winning streak to Milwaukee on Tuesday and blew a four-point fourth-quarter lead, falling 86-84 as a 1½-point road underdog. The Celtics are just 11-6 SU in their last 17 games and 14-27 ATS in their last 41. Also, Doc Rivers’ squad has split its last 14 games at the Garden, going a dreadful 1-12-1 ATS. The Celtics have won the last six meetings in this rivalry, but the teams have split the cash and in fact have alternated spread-covers in the last seven series meetings. Back on Dec. 14 in Memphis, Boston pulled out a 110-105 win but failed to cash as a 7½-point road chalk. The Grizzlies are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 17 contests against the Celtics (all as an underdog), and they’ve cashed in nine straight trips to Boston. Finally, the visitor is on a 6-1 ATS roll. In addition to cashing in six straight road games, the Grizzlies are on ATS runs of 19-8 against the Eastern Conference, 6-1 against Atlantic Division squads and 5-0 on Wednesday, but their 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing after one day of rest. The Celtics are in pointspread ruts of 7-16-1 overall, 15-37-1 at home (1-12-1 last 14), 3-8-1 against winning teams, 2-9-1 versus Western Conference foes and 1-4 against the Southwest Division. The under is 9-4 in Memphis’ last 13 against the Eastern Conference, while Boston carries “under” trends of 6-1 against the Western Conference, 4-1 versus Southwest Division foes and 4-1 when playing on back-to-back days. However, the Grizzlies carry “over” trends of 22-10 on the road, 5-0 against winning teams and 9-1 against Atlantic Division foes. Also, these teams have topped the total in seven straight meetings overall and four straight at TD Garden.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS and OVER
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#197856 - 03/10/10 11:18 AM
Re: 3/10
[Re: FREAK]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Freaks Forum Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 69560
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Trace Adams
1000* - Oklahoma State Cowboys 500* - Minnesota Timberwolves
A little dicey laying these points with the Cowboys away from Gallagher-Iba, but I would rather lay the points with the surging Pokes, than take them with the sliding Sooners.
Oklahoma State comes into this Big 12 tourney with wins in 5 of their last 7 to move to 21-9 for the season - and likely an at-large bid come Sunday - but a convincing win tonight would get them firmly off the fence, and into the Dance for sure, and OU is a willing opponent this evening.
The Sooners lost Willie Warren and his 16 ppg to an ankle injury, and that is a loss Jeff Capel's team just hasn't been able to overcome. The losing streak is at 8 straight, and just 2-6 against the spread in that span as well.
Okie State has captured 2 of the last 3 in this series both straight up, and against the spread, and while they have done the majority of their best work at home, the same can be said for the Sooners, as Oklahoma is just 2-13 straight up away from Norman, and 5-10 against the number in those away games.
Gonna lay the chalk with the Cowboys tonight.
In the NBA, willing to give the Timberwolves a shot plus the generous number at home.
This is the start of a 4-game road trip for the Nuggets who will be without Coach Karl as he undergoes cancer treatment, and I can easily see Denver doing just enough to get the win against the desperate Timberwolves.
Minnesota has lost 6 in a row, and 12 of their last 13, and in that span they have lost ALL 6 of their home games! Maybe desperate is not the proper word to use, but the T-Wolves still own a 17-15-1 home spread mark, while the Nuggets are just 12-15-3 against the spread away from home this year.
Thus far these teams have met 3 times this year, Denver winning the last pair, but Minnesota covering in those 2.
I like the points to work again tonight.
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FREAK
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