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#197454 - 03/04/10 11:05 AM
Re: 3/4
[Re: FREAK]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, MARCH 4
NBA
L.A. Lakers (46-15, 26-32-3 ATS) at Miami (30-31, 29-32 ATS)
The Lakers open a three-game East Coast trip with a stop inside the American Airlines Arena for a matchup against the Heat. Los Angeles has won three straight (1-1-1 ATS) overall, including Tuesday’s 122-99 rout of Indiana, cashing as an 11½-point home chalk. The Lakers got 24 points and six assists from Kobe Bryant, while Pau Gasol added 14 points and pulled down 16 boards. The Lakers are 17-10 on the highway this season, but only 11-15-1 ATS away from home. They snapped an 0-5-1 ATS slump with Tuesday’s blowout of the Pacers. A 110-106 home win over Golden State on Tuesday snapped Miami’s four-game losing streak, but it came up well short as a 10½-point favorite, dropping to 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Dwyane Wade poured in 35 points and dished out 12 assists to lead the way as the Heat erupted offensively after averaging just 82.3 ppg in their previous four contests. The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series, including the Lakers’ last-second 108-107 victory on Dec. 4, falling well short as a 12½-point home favorite. Miami has cashed in five of the last seven – including the last three in a row – all as an underdog. Los Angeles is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 Thursday games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine against a team with a losing record, but it is on ATS slides of 1-5-1 overall, 1-4-1 as a favorite, 1-3-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 1-5-1 as a road chalk of less than five points. The Heat have cashed in four of five as an underdog and 10 of 14 against Pacific Division teams, but they are on ATS skids of 1-5 at home, 1-5 on Thursday and 9-23 at home against teams with a winning road record. The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 on the road, 7-1 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 21-7 on Thursday and 20-8-1 after a spread-cover. Miami has also been on several “under” streaks, including 25-10-1 overall, 19-7-1 on Thursday, 7-1 at home, 42-20 after a straight-up win and 5-1-1 as an underdog. In this series, the “under” has been the play in seven of the last 10 meetings overall and five straight in South Beach.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Utah (38-22, 36-21-3 ATS) at Phoenix (39-24, 37-26 ATS)
The red-hot Suns look for their seventh win in their last eight games when they welcome the Jazz to the US Airways Center for a key Western Conference matchup. Utah has alternated wins and losses in its last six (3-3 ATS), including a 108-104 loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles on Monday, failing as a 6½-point favorite. The Jazz were outrebounded by Los Angeles and shot just 38-for-89 from the field for 42.7 percent. They have now dropped two straight on the highway after rattling off seven consecutive road wins (SU and ATS). The Suns scored a 127-101 victory over the Clippers in Los Angeles on Wednesday, easily cashing as a 4½-point favorite. Amare Stoudemire led the way for Phoenix with 30 points and 14 rebounds as his team cashed for the eighth straight game, and sixth straight as a favorite. The Suns have won five straight in front of the home fans, cashing in each contest. The home team has won five straight in this rivalry, with Utah scoring a 124-115 win in Salt Lake City back on Jan. 25, cashing as a seven-point favorite. The Jazz have cashed in six of the last eight series clashes and is the last road team to score a win in this matchup, winning 126-118 back in March 2008 as a 5½-point pup. In fact, Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to the Arizona desert. Utah is on several positive ATS streaks, including 34-15-3 overall, 10-2-1 on the road, 14-4-2 against Western Conference teams, 9-1-1 on Thursdays and 5-0-1 as an underdog. Phoenix is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 Thursday contests, but otherwise is on several positive pointspread runs, including 14-3 overall, 5-0 at home, 6-0 against Western Conference teams, 6-0 as a favorite and 8-1 against teams with a winning percentage higher than .600. The Jazz have topped the total in five straight overall, 28 of 41 as a road ‘dog, 34 of 51 as an underdog regardless of venue and five of six against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Suns are on several “under” runs, including 10-4 overall, 6-2 as a favorite, 4-0 on the second night of a back-to-back and 5-1 at home. In this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Dayton (19-9, 13-12 ATS) at Richmond (22-7, 16-9 ATS)
Richmond tries to bounce back from its first loss in more than a month when it welcomes the Flyers to the Robins Center for an Atlantic 10 clash. Dayton snapped a two-game slide in emphatic fashion Saturday, hammering UMass 96-68 as a 15-point home favorite, its most lopsided victory of the season. The Flyers, who also halted a four-game ATS drought by crushing UMass, have split their last 16 games, all within the A-10. However, they’re 1-5 on the road during this stretch (2-4 ATS), including 0-3 SU and ATS in the last three. The Spiders took an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) to Xavier on Sunday and suffered a heartbreaking 78-76 double-overtime defeat, but they easily covered as a 7½-point road underdog. Richmond has won 13 of 14 home games (6-5 ATS), and since a 12-point home loss to Charlotte on Jan. 20, the Spiders have won four in a row at home (3-1 ATS) by an average of 18.8 ppg. For the season, they outscore visitors by 14.5 ppg (72.6-58.1). Richmond crushed Dayton 83-63 as a 4½-point home underdog last year, but the Flyers got revenge twice thereafter with a 69-63 home victory as a 9½-point favorite and a 69-64 win as a 4½-point chalk in the Atlantic-10 tournament. The home team has won each of the last seven regular-season clashes (4-3 ATS). The underdog has gotten the money eight times in the last 10 meetings. In addition to failing to cover in four of its last five overall and four of its last five on the road, Dayton is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Spiders have come up short in five of their last seven on Thursday, but otherwise they’re on ATS hot streaks of 8-1 overall (all in conference), 23-7-1 after a SU loss, 6-1 following a spread-cover and 5-1 against winning teams. These teams have topped the total in each of their last five series meetings, and the over is 4-0 in Richmond’s last four against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RICHMOND and OVER
USC (16-12, 11-14-2 ATS) at Arizona State (20-9, 11-14 ATS)
Arizona State hopes to bolster its sagging Big Dance resume when it welcomes the slumping Trojans to Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe, Ariz., as the final weekend of Pac-10 regular-season play tips off. USC has dropped three in a row SU and ATS, and the offense is to blame, as the Trojans managed just 47, 44 and 44 points in the three defeats. Last weekend, they hosted Oregon and Oregon State and lost both games as a huge favorite, falling 55-44 to the Ducks as a 10½-point chalk and 49-44 to the Beavers as an eight-point choice. The three-game slide follows a four-game winning streak for USC, which is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine outings. The Trojans conclude their season tonight and Saturday at Arizona, as they’re ineligible for postseason play – including the Pac-10 tournament – because of school-imposed sanctions. The Sun Devils’ four-game winning streak ended with Saturday’s ugly 62-46 loss at Cal, falling way short as a seven-point road underdog. Arizona State actually took a 30-29 halftime lead then got outscored 33-16 in the final 20 minutes. The Sun Devils have still won six of their last eight overall and they’re 14-3 at Wells Fargo Arena this season, averaging 70.3 ppg and allowing 54.8 on their home floor. Despite that, they’re just 5-8 ATS in lined home games (1-4 ATS last five), and they’ve failed to cover in six of their last 10 overall. USC crushed the Sun Devils 47-37 as a 2½-point home favorite back on Jan. 2 in the second conference game for both squads. The Trojans are 4-1 SU in the last five series meetings and 3-1 ATS in the last four. The home team has taken the last seven regular-season battles (6-1 ATS), but the underdog has covered in 12 of the last 16. The Trojans’ 1-5 ATS slump overall is offset by positive pointspread runs of 39-18-1 after a non-cover and 8-3 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Arizona State has cashed in 18 of its last 26 after a non-cover, but is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games after three or more consecutive road contests. The low-scoring Trojans are on “under” runs of 18-7-1 overall, 6-0-1 on the road, 12-3-1 in Pac-10 action, 4-0 on Thursday, 4-0 after a SU defeat, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 against winning teams. Similarly, ASU carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all in conference), 11-3 at home and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, four of the last five meetings between these rivals have stayed low, though the over is 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Tempe.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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#197455 - 03/04/10 11:06 AM
Re: 3/4
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON –1½ +1.75 over Toronto
The Maple Leafs continue to defy logic and they continue to be the laughing stock of the NHL. What they did yesterday was for the sake of making deals because Brian Burke just loves to see his name in the paper and loves to be the center of attention. He was glowing when the media hounds were swarming him yesterday. When Burke arrived in Toronto he said he’s going to rebuild this team from the draft yet he went out and traded two first round picks for Phil Kessel. Kessel is good but he’s not a guy you build a team around. Now the Leafs are completely depleted in terms of NHL talent and the rest of this season is basically a “preseason” stretch in which players will be evaluated. So, let’s see what’s left. Only three players on the club have hit double digits in goals. Of the top five scorers on the team, three are defensemen, one is Phil Kessel and the other is injured. The Leafs top four centers are Kyle Bozak (rookie); John Mitchell (has regressed faster than Getzlaf’s hairline); Rickard Wallin and Wayne Primeau. As a group, they’ve scored 10 goals in 143 games played this season. The Leafs may not win another game this season and that’s not a joke either. Playing the Leafs will be equivalent to playing a minor league team and losing to them could not be more embarrassing, especially for desperate clubs like Boston. The Bruins should beat this team by five goals tonight and that’s all there is to it. Play: Boston –1½ +1.75 (Risking 2 units).
CAROLINA +1.00 over Ottawa
The Canes didn’t miss a beat after the break, as they had won five straight heading into it and beat the Leafs 5-1 after it. Carolina has now scored four goals or more in five of its last six games and they’re completely healthy too. Justin Peters looks like he’s been around for years. This kid is so poised, so good and so confident it’s scary and he’ll get the start again tonight. Peters is 3-0 this year and has a save percentage of 95.7%. Of all the teams in the NHL the Senators needed a break least of all. They were red-hot and came out of the gate with a 4-1 loss at home to the Gaborik-less Rangers. That was just one game and likely doesn’t mean a whole lot but this isn’t about playing against Ottawa. This is about playing on the resurgent Canes at home laying absolutely nothing. Play: Carolina +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +1.09 over DALLAS
You have to love the way the Blue Notes came out of the gate with an impressive 5-2 win over Phoenix. Scoring five on the Coyotes is significant but even more significant is the Blues determination. They’ve now won four in a row and that includes wins over Detroit and Washington as well as the aforementioned Coyotes. They’ve scored four or more in all of those wins while the Stars were buried 5-1 by the Kings upon its return to action on Tuesday. The Blues need to win a lot of games if they hope to make the playoffs but last year they were in a similar predicament and they went 13-5-2 in their last 20 games and slipped into sixth place in the Western Conference playoffs. They looked extremely sharp on Tuesday while the Stars did not and if momentum counts for anything the Blues should keep it going here. Any take-back here has to be considered tremendous value. Play: St. Louis +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.04 over NASHVILLE
Speaking of hot teams that didn’t miss a beat and one need not look further than these Kings. L.A. has now won three in a row and 11 of its last 13 games and one of those losses came in OT. No team in the NHL was hotter going into the break and after it the Kings looked even better. Its two Olympians, Jack Johnson and Drew Doughty were the two best players on the ice and its worth noting the club went 2-2 on the power play in that 5-1 win over the Stars. Nashville has labored at home with just 17 wins in 29 games, which is almost identical to its road record. The Preds are not an easy team to beat but this isn’t about wagering against them. This is about taking back a small tag on a team that has a better chance of winning than the team it’s facing, as these Kings are too hot to ignore as a pooch. Play: Los Angeles +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
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#197458 - 03/04/10 11:08 AM
Re: 3/4
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets
Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks (-230, 5.5)
With trade rumors abundant in Montreal this week, the club is silencing those whispers by announcing its plan to hang on to both goaltenders, Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak, for the remainder of the season.
The Canadiens are hoping their two-pronged attack between the pipes will prove valuable during the helter-skelter postseason schedule.
Price locked up his job following a 4-1 win in Boston Tuesday, stopping 23-of-24 shots on goal. He allowed a power-play goal midway through the first period but kept his team in the game with big saves in the final two frames.
"He played a strong game, especially after we had some breakdowns in the first and second periods. We gave some odd-man rushes and he was there to close the door,” said head coach Jacques Martin.
That win kicked off a four-game road trip that heads to San Jose on Thursday then closes with dates in Los Angeles and Anaheim. Montreal is a solid under play on the road this season, posting a 12-17-3 over/under mark in opposing barns.
Pick: Under
Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes (-110, 5.5)
The Senators are crossing their fingers that the Olympic break didn’t put an end to their winning ways.
Before the two-week hiatus, Ottawa was one of the best teams in the NHL. It won 14 of the 16 games heading into the break but came back from vacation rustier than the garden gate. The Senators dropped a 4-1 loss to the New York Rangers Tuesday night, giving up all four goals in the second period.
“That’s not how we wanted to start coming out of the break,” forward Jason Spezza told the Toronto Sun. “We didn’t have good coverage in our end, we gave them some easy goals. We left Ells out to dry.”
Ottawa is hoping a trip to face the lowly Hurricanes can get them back on the right track. However, Carolina is no push over. It’s won six straight games and eight of its last 10 outings heading into Thursday.
The Canes stayed hot following the break with a 5-1 win over Toronto Tuesday. That marked the sixth game in the past 10 that the Hurricanes have allowed two or less goals against.
Pick: Carolina
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#197460 - 03/04/10 11:08 AM
Re: 3/4
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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DCI CBB
03/04/10 Predictions
Season Straight Up: 3562-1148 (.756) ATS: 1508-1502 (.501) ATS Vary Units: 4143-4221 (.495) Over/Under: 1342-1348 (.499) Over/Under Vary Units: 1989-1978 (.501)
America East Conference Tournament Albany 69, Umbc 65
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Belmont 78, MERCER 76 East Tennessee State vs. Campbell: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Big South Conference Tournament COASTAL CAROLINA 81, UNC Asheville 70 Radford 65, Winthrop 64
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Missouri State 72, Evansville 63 Southern Illinois 69, Drake 68
Northeast Conference Tournament LONG ISLAND 73, Fairleigh Dickinson 67 MOUNT ST. MARY'S 70, Saint Francis (Pa.) 53 QUINNIPIAC 76, Monmouth 58 ROBERT MORRIS 69, Central Connecticut State 54
Atlantic 10 Conference RICHMOND 66, Dayton 60
Big East Conference PITTSBURGH 89, Providence 74 Seton Hall 78, RUTGERS 75
Big Ten Conference MICHIGAN STATE 69, Penn State 57
Big West Conference CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE 75, UC Davis 74 Pacific vs. CAL STATE FULLERTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Great West Conference Houston Baptist 76, NORTH DAKOTA 75 SOUTH DAKOTA 82, Texas-Pan American 64 UTAH VALLEY 63, New Jersey Tech 57
Mid-American Conference EASTERN MICHIGAN 65, Central Michigan 58 MIAMI (OHIO) 65, Buffalo 64 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 68, Toledo 55 OHIO 72, Bowling Green State 63 WESTERN MICHIGAN 63, Ball State 58
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Bethune-Cookman 60, FLORIDA A&M 59 DELAWARE STATE 60, Umes 53 HAMPTON 67, Howard 53 MORGAN STATE 78, Coppin State 58 Norfolk State 74, NORTH CAROLINA A&T 71
Pacific-10 Conference ARIZONA 74, Ucla 67 ARIZONA STATE 59, Usc 47 OREGON STATE 62, Washington State 55 Washington 76, OREGON 70
Southeastern Conference MISSISSIPPI 79, Lsu 64
Southwestern Athletic Conference ALABAMA STATE 76, Grambling State 56 ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF 67, Mississippi Valley State 56 Jackson State 68, ALABAMA A&M 61 Prairie View A&M 61, SOUTHERN 55 Texas Southern 75, ALCORN STATE 62
Western Athletic Conference BOISE STATE 80, Hawai'i 69 IDAHO 76, San Jose State 73 LouiSIAna Tech 71, FRESNO STATE 65 New Mexico State vs. NEVADA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Non-Conference SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 73, Winston-Salem State 59
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