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#197121 - 02/26/10 09:12 AM
Re: 2/26
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26
NBA
Dallas (37-21, 24-34 ATS) at Atlanta (36-20, 34-22 ATS) The Mavericks try to run their winning streak to six when they visit Philips Arena for a showdown with the Hawks. After losing its first game after the All-Star break, Dallas has rattled off five straight wins (3-2 ATS), including a 101-96 victory over the Lakers on Wednesday, cashing as a 1˝-point home favorite. Dirk Nowitzki led the charge for the Mavericks with 31 points and nine rebounds as they beat Los Angeles without the services of newcomer Caron Butler, who missed the contest with an illness. Atlanta comes in riding a two-game winning streak (1-1 ATS) after losing three of four (SU and ATS). The Hawks edged the Timberwolves on Wednesday 98-92, coming up well short as 12-point home favorites. Josh Smith had a huge game for the Hawks with 27 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. Atlanta is 22-6 in front of the home crowd, cashing in 18 of those 28 contests. Back on Dec. 5, the Hawks went to Dallas and scored an 80-75 upset as 5˝-point underdogs. They’ve now won two straight over the Mavs, including last year’s 95-87 home win as a five-point favorite. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, including 5-1 ATS at home. Dallas has been a disaster at the betting window lately, currently on pointspread skids of 6-16 overall, 1-4 as a ‘dog, 8-20 after a straight-up win, 3-12 after getting one day off, 3-13 after a spread-cover and 2-7 against Southeast Division teams. Atlanta is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a straight-up win, but is otherwise on positive ATS streaks of 29-14-1 as a home favorite, 13-5 after a non-cover and 4-1 against Southwest Division squads. The Mavericks have stayed below the total in 11 of 16 against Southeast Division teams, but topped the total in five of seven on Fridays, six of eight after a straight-up win and seven of 10 as a road ‘dog of up to 4˝ points. Meanwhile, the Hawks are on “under” streaks of 4-0 after a day off, 12-3-1 after a straight-up win and 8-3 as a home favorite of up to 4˝-points. In this series, the “under” has been the play in each of the last four.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Cleveland (45-14, 29-29-1 ATS) at Toronto (31-25, 28-28 ATS) The Cavaliers used a huge second half to blow out the Celtics on Thursday night and now turn around and head north of the border to take on the Raptors inside the Air Canada Centre in Toronto. Cleveland outscored Boston 60-32 in the second half to score a 108-88 victory Thursday, cashing as a 2˝-point road favorite to halt an 0-4 ATS slide. LeBron James led the way with 36 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. Thursday’s result aside, it’s been a tough second half of the season for the Cavs, who lost three straight after the All-Star break (SU and ATS) and who’ve failed to cash in six of eight overall. The Raptors had won five of six overall (3-3 ATS) before losing at home to Portland on Wednesday, falling 101-87 as a three-point home favorite. With All-Star Chris Bosh sidelined with an injury, Hedo Turkoglu had 24 points for Toronto, but it couldn’t stop the Blazers who shot 42-of-85 from the field. Still, the Raptors are 21-8 at home this season, cashing in 16 of those 29 contests. Both squads could be without their big men tonight, as Bosh remains questionable while Cleveland’s Shaquille O’Neal left last night’s game in Boston with a thumb injury and didn’t return. The home team has won both meetings between these two this season, including an Oct. 28 game in Toronto when the Raptors scored a 101-91 victory as seven-point home pups. Cleveland got revenge on Jan. 19, prevailing 108-100 but came up short as 10-point favorites. The Cavs have won eight of the last 10 clashes (6-4 ATS) and cashed in 10 of the last 14 meetings in Toronto. Cleveland is on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 1-4 against Atlantic Division teams and 0-4 on the second night of a back-to-back. The Raptors are just 11-27-1 ATS at home against teams with winning road marks, but they are on positive ATS runs of 13-6 against Central Division teams, 7-3 after getting a day off and 4-1 on Friday. The Cavaliers have topped the total in five of six against Atlantic Division teams and six of nine overall, but they have stayed “under” the number in eight of 11 Friday games and five of eight against winning teams. Toronto is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 at home against teams with winning road records and 8-3 against teams with winning records, but it has gone over the total in 17 of 23 against the Eastern Conference. In this series, the under is 6-2 in the last eight overall and 13-3-1 in the last 17 played in Canada.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Orlando (39-19, 30-27-1 ATS) at New Orleans (30-28, 29-29 ATS) The Magic head to New Orleans Arena looking to hand the Hornets their third straight loss and seventh in their last 11 contests. Orlando has won two in a row (SU and ATS) and seven of their last 10 (6-4 ATS). On, Wednesday the Magic clobbered the Rockets in Houston 110-92, easily cashing as 4˝-point road favorites. Dwight Howard delivered a big game, going 11-of-11 from the field for 30 points and pulling down 16 rebounds. Even though they have dropped two straight, the Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. However, they’re coming off Wednesday’s ugly 115-95 loss in Milwaukee as six-point underdogs. They were outrebounded by nine and allowed the Bucks to shoot 52.2 percent from the floor. The home team has won the last three meetings between these two, including a Feb. 8 contest in Orlando when the Magic eked out a 123-117 win, but came up short as 9˝-point favorites. The Hornets are 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Magic. In this series, the road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS run while the underdog has cashed in nine of the last 12. Orlando is on ATS streaks of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as a favorite and 5-1 after getting a day off, but it is on ATS skids of 1-4 on Fridays, 2-5-1 against Western Conference teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover. New Orleans comes into tonight’s contest just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at home and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 on Fridays, but riding positive ATS streaks of 5-0 after getting one day off, 23-7 at home against teams with winning road records, 6-2 as a home pup and 18-6 against teams with winning records. The Magic are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 9-3 overall, 23-9 on the road, 21-8 against Western Conference teams, 41-18 after getting a day off and 13-3 on Friday. The Hornets have topped the total in six straight after a non-cover, seven of 10 as an underdog and 11 of 16 overall, but they are on “under” runs of 29-14 at home and 20-8-1 as a home pup. Finally, in this series, the under has been the play in nine of the last 12 meetings, including five of six in the Bayou.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(15) Butler (25-4, 12-17 ATS) at Valparaiso (15-15, 16-9-1 ATS) Butler, which has already wrapped up the Horizon League regular-season championship, looks to finish off a perfect conference season when it travels to Valparaiso. The Bulldogs ran their overall winning streak to 17 in a row with Saturday’s 70-53 rout of Siena in a “Bracket Buster” contest, easily covering as a nine-point home favorite. Butler started conference play with an 84-67 rout of Valpo on Dec. 5 (coming up just short of covering as an 18-point favorite), then split four non-conference contests before resuming Horizon League action on New Year’s Eve and ripping off 16 straight wins. Including the non-conference victory over Siena, Butler has held five straight opponents under 60 points, giving up an average of just 54.2 ppg during this stretch. Of Butler’s 17 Horizon League victories, 13 have come by double digits, including the last six in a row. Despite that, the Bulldogs are just 7-10 ATS in conference play, including 4-5 ATS on the road. The Crusaders went to Bowling Green for a “Bracket Buster” contest on Saturday and got drilled 87-70 as a two-point road underdog. Prior to that, Valparaiso had been on a 9-3 SU and ATS run (all in conference action). The Crusaders are tied for third place in the Horizon League at 10-7, but unlike Butler, they’ve been money against league rivals, going 12-4-1 ATS. They’re also 9-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season. Butler has won all seven meetings since these teams became Horizon League members in 2005-06, including three victories at Valpo by margins of 13, 3 and 13 points. However, the Crusaders are 3-1-1 ATS in lined action in this rivalry, cashing in the last two meetings (both at Butler). The visitor is 4-0-1 ATS in the five lined contests. The Bulldogs have failed to cover in five of their last seven league games and eight of nine when coming off an ATS win, but they’re 11-3 ATS in their last 14 on Friday. Meanwhile, Valpo is on pointspread surges of 9-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-2 in Horizon League action, 7-1-1 after a non-cover, 7-1-1 against winning teams and 4-1-1 on Friday. Butler has topped the total in four of its last five road games and four straight Friday contests, while the Crusaders are on “over” runs of 21-8-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home, 16-5-1 in the Horizon League, 5-2 on Friday and 4-0 after a non-cover. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the five lined meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VALPARAISO and OVER
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#197122 - 02/26/10 09:13 AM
Re: 2/26
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets
Charlotte Bobcats at Memphis Grizzlies (-3.5, 193.5)
"We're losing momentum, we're losing chemistry, and a lot of things have to change fast.''
That’s what Bobcats forward Gerald Wallace told reporters after Charlotte fell 102-93 to the Utah Jazz. The setback was the Cats’ third straight loss and seventh in their last 10 games. Charlotte is just 1-7 against the spread its last eight games.
Larry Brown’s boys seemed like a playoff lock before the All-Star break but now they find themselves on the outside looking in.
"I think everyone is in a different place from each other,” Wallace told the Charlotte Observer. "It's no longer 'team this' or 'team that,' it's 'I this' and 'I that.’”
Memphis doesn’t share the same type of problem. Look for the Grizzlies to add to Charlotte’s pain.
Pick: Grizzlies
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns (-10, 208)
The Suns are one of the hottest teams in the league. They’re 10-2 straight up and against the spread over their last 12 games with wins over Dallas, Denver and Atlanta highlighting the hot streak.
“I like everything on the stat sheet,” Phoenix coach Alvin Gentry told the Arizona Republic following a 106-95 win over the 76ers on Wednesday.
Giving veteran point guard Steve Nash a game off to rest his back this week proved to be a great decision. Not only did Nash play great in his first game back, reserve guard Goran Dragic had a chance to shine. Dragic guided the Suns to a 104-102 win over the Thunder while collecting 16 points and 10 assists.
"Goran did a great job of running the team and finding guys," Gentry said after the game. "He doesn't try to be Steve or play the way Steve plays. He just tries to be himself. That's helped him as much as anything. You can't be Steve."
It’s tough finding value fading the Clippers. The under looks like the better play. Phoenix has played below the total in nine of its last 10 games.
Pick: Under
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#197130 - 02/26/10 01:43 PM
Re: 2/26
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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SPORTS WAGERS aka Randall the Handle & friends
USA -˝ +1.04 over Finland
Somehow the Fins are getting a little too much credit here. They opened the tourney with a 5-1 win over Belarus and followed that up with a 5-0 win over Germany. Big deal. In its third preliminary game they fell to the Swedes 3-0 and looked overmatched in doing so. To advance to this stage the Fins beat the Czechs 2-0 and it’s safe to suggest the Czechs did not have a great tournament, as they beat Latvia 3-2 to get here and it’s only notable win coming over the underachieving, and as it turned out, very beatable Russians. The Fins could not find the back of the net against Henrik Lundqvist and things sure as hell won’t be any easier against Ryan Miller. Finland has some very decent talent but all of its top players are second line NHLers with the exception of Backstrom and not top line guys. Its defense is average at best and to prove that point all you have to do is look at the roster and see Toni Lydman on the squad. The Americans have yet to lose a game and that includes its memorable win over the powerful Canadians. USA has the firepower, they have the goaltending and a date with the Canadians on Sunday for Gold is unlikely to be hindered by the Fins. Play: USA -˝ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Portland +1.46 over CHICAGO
The Bulls are a decent squad, make no mistake about that, however, they’re also a beatable squad and when they play quality teams they don’t look nearly as good. A close look reveals that the Bulls last seven wins have come against Indiana twice, the Knicks twice, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Miami. All those teams are below .500 and the win over the Heat was at home and they won by four. The Bulls last three losses were to Washington, Atlanta, and Orlando, the latter two, both teams well above .500, by 10 and 20 points respectively. The Trail Blazers are about as tough as they come, both mentally and physically. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over the Nets and Raps and should have three wins in a row after they blew a 25-point lead to the red-hot Jazz and eventually lost in OT. The Bulls stock is overvalued because of a string of very high offensive productions but again, that was against some of the league’s worst defensive squads. The same fate does not wait them here. Portland can play defense and they can play it as good as anyone. They have dominated the Bulls over the years, beating them five straight with the last three all being blowouts. We also have a case of East vs West and that, too, is significant. Play: Portland +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
NEW ORLEANS +4˝/+1.70 over Orlando
These small road favorites on Friday nights have a long history of rolling snake eyes and after those small road favorites went 3-0 last night you can be damn sure a couple or more upsets will take place tonight. The Hornets are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cav’s and Bucks but the 10-point loss to the Cav’s is a very misleading score. The Hornets were in that one right down to the wire and gave Cleveland a huge run for its money. The next night they were a bit gassed in that loss to the Bucks but Milwaukee is playing terrific ball right now. The Hornets are still 19-9 at home and remain one of the more undervalued teams in the league. By contrast, the Magic remain one of the more overvalued clubs. They have a great record but they’re not as good as last year’s squad. They’re 17-13 on the road but they’re just 5-6 on the road against Western clubs with only wins coming against the T-Wolves, Clip Joint, Sacramento twice and Houston. That’s not very impressive at all and they pretty much always lose to quality western teams on the road. The Hornets qualify as such. Play: New Orleans +4˝ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play: New Orleans +1.70 (Risking 1 unit).
OKLAHOMA CITY –9˝ over Minnesota
The best part about this game is that the Thunder are coming off back-to-back losses and will not take this night off. This is a determined group that will not take the T-Wolves for granted. Minnesota is coming off four very intense and close games in a row and that takes its toll, especially on bad teams. They very often get blown away and picking the spots when that’ll occur is tricky but this one sets up beautifully for that to happen. Aside from those four close games, the T-Wolves will play its third straight on the road before heading home to play Portland tomorrow night and asking them to stay close to the hungry Thunder is an assignment they likely won’t be prepared to deal with. Play: Oklahoma City –9˝ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
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