SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 18
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(5) Syracuse (24-2, 15-7 ATS) at (10) Georgetown (18-6, 11-9 ATS)
A pair of Big East heavyweights collide when the Orange travel to the D.C. area to face Georgetown at the Verizon Center.
Syracuse opened the season with 13 consecutive wins, fell as a heavy home chalk against Pittsburgh, then reeled off 11 more wins (8-3 ATS) before getting upset by Louisville 66-60 as a 7½-point home favorite Sunday. The Orange are averaging 80.8 ppg on a nation-leading 52.2 percent shooting this season, while allowing 64.3 ppg on 38.5 percent shooting. However, over its last five games, the ‘Cuse is down to 69.4 ppg and 46.9 percent shooting.
The Hoyas were on a 5-2 SU and ATS surge before being dealt a shocking 71-68 loss Sunday at Rutgers as a 10½-point road chalk, a team they had pounded 88-63 as a 19½-point home favorite three weeks ago. Like Syracuse, Georgetown also shoots the rock well, making 50.6 percent of its field goals (third), and the Hoyas are outscoring visitors by about a dozen points per game (77.6-65.5), hitting 52.6 percent from the floor at the Verizon Center. And in the last five games overall, Georgetown is shooting a hefty 55.2 percent.
Syracuse has cashed in six of the last seven in this rivalry (5-2 SU), winning and covering at home in the last two contests. That includes a 73-56 rout as a 5 ½-point favorite back on Jan. 25, as the Orange fell behind 14-0 to start the game and then rolled from there. Last year at home, Georgetown prevailed 88-74 as a 6½-points favorite, as the home team has cashed in the last four meetings. Also, the SU winner is on a 7-1 ATS run when these rivals hook up.
The Orange are on several positive pointspread streaks, including 24-9 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after a non-cover, 7-1 on the road, 20-8 against winning teams and 15-6 in the Big East. The Hoyas are on ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 at home, but they’ve also gone just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 Big East starts.
The over for Georgetown is on rolls of 5-1 at home, 6-0 after a SU loss, 5-0 after an ATS defeat and 5-2 on Thursday, but the total has stayed low in four of the Hoyas’ last five conference starts. In addition, Syracuse sports “under” streaks of 6-0 overall (all in the Big East), 6-0 as a visitor, 6-0 after a non-cover and 5-1 coming off a SU loss, though the over has hit in its last five Thursday games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings at Georgetown, and last month’s clash at Syracuse also fell short of the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(17) Vanderbilt (19-5, 12-10 ATS) at Ole Miss (17-7, 12-7-1 ATS)
Vanderbilt, winners of three of its last four games, heads south to Oxford’s Tad Smith Coliseum for an SEC contest with the Rebels, who have dropped three of their last four.
Following a 72-58 blowout loss as a four-point favorite at Georgia, Vandy whipped then-No. 12 Tennessee 90-71 as a three-point home favorite on Feb. 9 and topped LSU 77-69 on Saturday, though it failed to cash as a 15½-point chalk in that contest. The Commodores average 78.9 ppg on 48.7 percent shooting, while allowing 69.6 ppg on 41.7 percent shooting. On the road, though, their scoring dips to 72.7 ppg, and they give up 75.0 ppg. Vandy went 3-0 SU and ATS in its first three SEC roadies but has since dropped two in a row SU and ATS, losing at Georgia and Kentucky (85-72).
Mississippi has followed a 3-0 SU and ATS surge with its current 1-3 SU skid (1-2-1 ATS), including last Thursday’s 71-63 loss at Mississippi State as a four-point underdog. The Rebels have outscored foes by about 10 ppg on average (79.6-69.9), but on the home court – where they’re 10-2 this season – they put up 82.4 ppg and allow 66.7.
Vanderbilt is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, including a 71-61 home win last season giving 7½ points. The SU winner is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine.
The Commodores are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, but they’re also on pointspread skids of 1-4 overall (all in the SEC), 1-6 on Thursday, 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 after a non-cover. The Rebels are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Thursday outings, but the ATS streaks trend upward from there, including 5-2-1 overall (all in the SEC), 12-4 after a non-cover, 10-4-1 after a SU loss and 39-19 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
High-scoring Vandy is on a bundle of “over” tears, including 7-1 overall (all in conference play), 4-0 on Thursday, 7-1 after an ATS setback, 5-1 following a SU win and 8-2 on the highway. The over is also 3-1-1 with Ole Miss coming off a SU loss, but the Rebels are otherwise on “under” surges of 5-2-1 overall and 3-1-1 at home. The under is also 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, with the last two contests in a row staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI
(19) Pittsburgh (19-6, 12-8-2 ATS) at Marquette (16-8, 12-6 ATS)
Surging Marquette aims to firm up its NCAA Tournament credentials when it plays host to the Panthers in a Big East clash at the Bradley Center.
Pitt has followed a 1-4 SU slide (2-3 ATS) by winning its last three (2-0 ATS), squeaking past then-No. 5 West Virginia 98-95 in overtime last Friday as a 2½-point home favorite. That final tally was way beyond the Panthers’ season averages of 69.0 ppg scored and 61.6 ppg allowed, and on the road this year, Pitt is getting outscored by just over a point per game on average (67.3-66.0).
The Eagles lost five of seven games to open Big East play this year (5-2 ATS), with four of the five losses coming by two points or less. Since then, though, they’ve won five in a row, including a 63-52 victory over improving South Florida on Saturday, barely cashing as a nine-point home chalk. Marquette is second nationally in 3-point shooting (42.3 percent), and during the current run, it has hit 40.2 percent from long distance while holding opponents to just 26.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Pittsburgh is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, after a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS run by Marquette. In last year’s lone meeting, the Panthers won 90-75 as a 9½-point home chalk, meaning the SU winner is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven series clashes. The home team and the favorite are on identical 4-1 ATS runs in the last five meetings.
The Golden Eagles carry positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall (all within the conference), 5-0 on Thursday, 7-0 against winning teams, 4-1 at home and 5-2 after either a SU or an ATS victory. Likewise, the Panthers are on ATS rolls of 10-3-1 overall, 11-3-2 against winning teams, 6-2-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 in the Big East.
Marquette is on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall (all in the Big East), 4-1 on Thursday, 7-2 against winning teams and 5-2 after a pointspread win, and Pitt carries “over” trends of 4-0 following a SU win and 7-2 when facing a winning team. Additionally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last nine meetings, with last year’s shootout halting a 2-0 “under” uptick.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE and OVER
NBA
Denver (35-18, 24-26-3 ATS) at Cleveland (43-11, 28-25-1 ATS)
The Nuggets open the second half of the season with a stop at Quicken Loans Arena, where they’ll try to put a stop to the Cavaliers’ 13-game winning streak.
Denver has been idle since losing 111-92 at home to the Spurs a week ago tonight, falling as a 5½-point favorite. The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses over the last six games (2-3-1 ATS), but have won three of five on the road (3-1-1 ATS). They are 3-0-1 ATS this season after getting three or more days off, but they are just 12-13 (10-13-2 ATS) on the highway.
Cleveland wraps up a six-game homestand tonight with some familiar faces gone from the lineup and some new ones in. The Cavaliers last night acquired Antawn Jamison of the Wizards and Sebastian Telfair from the Clippers in a six-player, three-team deal that sent longtime Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas to the Wizards.
Cleveland won 13 straight (8-5 ATS) going into the All-Star break, including a 115-106 win over the Magic as a six-point home favorite a week ago tonight. The Cavs are 24-3 at home (but just 12-15 ATS) and they’re 3-1 ATS after three or more days off this season.
Denver has won six of the last eight meetings in this series (SU and ATS) dating back to 2006. That includes a 99-97 home win back on Jan. 8, cashing as a four-point pup in game Denver played without All-Star Carmelo Anthony. However, the Cavaliers won last year’s meeting in Cleveland 110-99, covering the seven-point spread.
The Nuggets are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 against Central Division teams, but they are riding positive ATS streaks of 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 7-3 on Thursday, 4-1-2 as a road ‘dog and 6-1 after a non-cover. The Cavs are on several ATS streaks as well, including 7-2 overall, 13-6-1 against Northwest Division teams, 4-0-1 on Thursday, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against Western Conference foes.
Denver is on “under” streaks of 35-16 as an underdog, 10-4 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on Thursday and 6-2 on the road against teams with winning home records. Meanwhile, Cleveland is on a plethora of “over” runs, including 3-0-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home against teams with losing road records, 7-3-1 on Thursday, 5-2-1 against Northwest Division teams and 6-2-1 as a favorite of five to 10½-points.
Finally, in this series, the under has been the play in two straight and six of the last nine.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Boston (33-18, 19-3-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (42-13, 25-28-2 ATS)
The Lakers opened the second half of the season Tuesday with their fourth straight win – all without injured superstar Kobe Bryant – and hope to continue their winning ways when they host the rival Celtics inside the Staples Center.
Boston was also in action on Tuesday, grabbing a 95-92 win in Sacramento but falling short as a 5½-point favorite. While the Celtics have won four of their last six, they have failed to cover in any of the last five contests and are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14. Doc Rivers’ squad is 18-9 (13-14 ATS) on the road this season, and the offense has stalled a bit lately, managing just 94.4 points per game over the last five overall.
Bryant is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest with his injured ankle. On Tuesday, his teammates scored their fourth straight victory with a 104-94 triumph over the Warriors, but came up short as a 13-point home favorite. All five starters managed scored in double figures, with backup guard Shannon Brown (Bryant’s replacement) leading the way with 27 points and 10 rebounds.
Los Angeles has won the last three in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS), including a thrilling 90-89 victory in Boston back on Jan. 31, pushing as a one-point road chalk. The Lakers have won all three meetings since losing in the 2008 NBA Finals to the Celtics in six games. Boston, which cashed in all six NBA Finals games, is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in Hollywood. Also, the ‘dog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight.
Currently, the Celtics are on nothing but negative ATS slides, including 1-10-1 against Pacific Division teams, 3-12-1 overall, 0-5-1 after a day off, 0-4-1 after a non-cover and 1-7 after a straight-up win. Los Angeles is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at Staples, but otherwise is on pointspread surges of 4-1 on Thursday, 4-1-1 against Atlantic Division teams and 5-2 after a non-cover.
It’s been all “unders” for Boston lately, including 4-0 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 6-1 against Pacific Division teams, 19-8 on Thursday and 28-12 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600. The Lakers have topped the total in five of seven against the Eastern Conference, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 6-1 after a straight-up win, 20-7 on Thursday and 8-3 at home against teams with winning road records.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOS ANGELES and UNDER
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