#145982 - 10/12/08 12:53 AM
10/18
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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#146280 - 10/15/08 06:06 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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NORTH COAST SPORTS
EARLY BIRD POW....USF -24
POWER PLAYS 4* POW....PENN STATE -24
#2 ECONOMY CLUB POW....KENTUCKY -9
BIG DOG POW....ARMY +12
COMP UNDER DOG POW....UNLV +4'
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#146281 - 10/15/08 06:09 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
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Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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PIGSKIN PROPHET
NCAA
MARSHALL -3
NFL
PITTSBURG -9'
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#146304 - 10/16/08 02:22 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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PackerBacker
Junior
Registered: 07/28/05
Posts: 105
Loc: Oklahoma
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Bug you wouldn't happen to know what Northcoast 9 BIGDOG Plays are?
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#146370 - 10/16/08 07:18 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: PackerBacker]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Dr. Bob
9 College Best Bets this week
Rotation #304 TCU (-2) 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or less.
Rotation #339 Akron (-3 1/2) 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars at -6 1/2 or -7, 4-Stars at -2 1/2 points.
Rotation #350 Navy (+3) 2-Stars at +3 (-115 odds or better) or more.
Rotation #353 Missouri (+5) 3-Stars at +3 1/2 or more, 4-Stars at +6 or more, 2-Stars at +3.
Rotation #358 Northern Illinois (-8 1/2) 3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.
Rotation #360 Nevada (-21) 2-Stars at -23 or less.
Rotation #364 Penn State (-23 1/2) 3-Stars at -26 or less, 2-Stars at -26 1/2 or -27.
Rotation #367 Oregon State (-14) 3-Stars at -16 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -17.
Rotation #393 Stanford (-1 1/2) 2-Stars at -3 or less, 3-Stars at -1 or better.
6 Strong Opinions
Rotation #301 Florida State (-11) Strong Opinion at -13 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -10 or less.
Rotation #322 Iowa (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion at -5 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (-1.12 odds or better).
Rotation #334 Tennessee (-7 1/2) Strong Opinion at -9 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7 (-115 odds or less).
Rotation #345 Southern Miss (+2) Strong Opinion at +2 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more (-115 odds or better).
Rotation #371-372 Cal at Arizona UNDER (54 1/2) Strong Opinion Under 54 or higher.
Rotation #378 Oklahoma State (-16 1/2) Strong Opinion at -17 or less.
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#146387 - 10/16/08 08:33 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
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Loc: alabama
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NORTH COAST
PAC 10 POW
WASHINGTON +14
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#146404 - 10/17/08 04:31 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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pitt
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Loc: pa
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Dave Malinsky
6* California PK
5* Arkansas +9.5
4* Pitt -2.5
4* Georgia Tech -2
4* Miss State +8
4* Georgia Under 45
4* Utah Under 49
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#146405 - 10/17/08 04:32 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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EZ WINNERS
Saturday
5* Missouri +5
3* Mississippi +12
3* Illinois -15.5
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#146406 - 10/17/08 04:32 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Spreitzer trifecta- Baylor, Missouri, Nevada
Spreitzer 25* Early game- Iowa
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#146407 - 10/17/08 04:33 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Northcoast
Pac 10 Gow Washington. 6-1 On The Year.
early bird play
sfl.
Northcoast 9 Big Dog Plays
Memphis +9' ML +330
Miss St +8 +250
Ol Miss +13' +450
Wash +14 +450
Baylor +17 +650
Army +10' +370
UTEP +17' +700
SMU +13 +400
FLA INT +8' +330
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#146408 - 10/17/08 04:35 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Dr Bob // 3 Star Selection-
***Akron (-3.5) 35 EASTERN MICH 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
I don’t understand the line on this game. Akron is a pretty decent MAC team that has averaged 5.4 yards per play and allowed 5.7 yppl and been out-scored by an average of just 26.1 points to 27.3 points against a schedule of teams that is about 4 points worse than average. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, has been out-gained 5.0 yppl to 6.5 yppl and out-scored 14.7 points to 34.8 points in 6 games against Division 1A teams that rate at 5 ½ points worse than average. The Eagles did manage a victory a couple of weeks ago against Bowling Green, but they then lost last week to a pathetic Army squad and lost by 24 points or more in their other 4 games against 1A opposition. The Eagles are also without their best quarterback, Kyle McMahon, who is out for the season after averaging 7.1 yards per pass play on 77 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Quarterback Andy Schmitt has averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp. Schmitt doesn’t throw many interceptions (just 14 career picks on 611 passes, 2.3%) and Akron quarterback Chris Jacquemain does tend to be more careless with the ball (20 interceptions on 519 pass attempts, 3.9%), but my math model gives Akron a 58% chance to cover at -3 1/2 points even with Eastern Michigan projected to have fewer turnovers. The Zips also apply to a 63-16-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I’ll take Akron in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less, for 4-Stars at -2 ½ or less, and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points.
3 Star Selection
***NORTHERN ILL (-8.5) 31 Toledo 14
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Toledo is coming off a huge upset win at Michigan, but it’s going to be tough for the Rockets to avoid a letdown this week. Toledo, in fact, applies to a very negative 18-66 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win and the Rockets are not generally a good road team (7-19-2 ATS). Toledo isn’t really a good, a the Rockets have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) – although only 0.5 yppl worse than average with RB DaJuane Collins healthy – 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively and horrible on special teams. Toledo has been out-scored by an average of 8.2 points by teams that are 1.3 points worse than average. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, has out-scored their opponents (who are 12.8 points worse than average) by an average of 12.5 points (so they’ve been about average based on scoring) and the Huskies have been solid from the line of scrimmage – rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl) and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, yielding just 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average team. The Huskies started off the season very strong offensively with freshman Chandler Harnish at quarterback (they averaged 6.6 yppl and scored 27 points against Minnesota), but Harnish was injured early in week 2 and just came back last week. Harnish’s stats (416 yards on 44 pass plays for 9.5 yppp) are misleading since he connected on a couple of big plays, including a 91 yard play, against Minnesota, but he should be better than backups Nicholson and Grady were (although the Huskies will miss Grady’s rushing skills). The Huskies surely remember last year’s game in which the Rockets ran up the score against NIU’s injury depleted defense in a 70-21 win. That defense is now very strong and will get some payback today. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 13 points and Toledo’s very negative situation makes NIU a good bet here. I’ll take Northern Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
3 Star Selection
***PENN ST. (-23.5) 41 Michigan 6
01:30 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
I doubt that Penn State will feel sorry for a Wolverines squad that has beaten them by a combined 14 points the last 3 seasons and the Nittany Lions will get their sweet revenge today against an impotent Wolverines squad that just lost at home to Toledo. Michigan is a pretty good defensive team, allowing 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team, but that unit is not any better than the average defensive rating of the 6 Division 1A teams that Penn State has averaged 42 points against. Penn State’s attack has averaged 6.9 yards per play with starting quarterback Daryll Clark behind center in those 6 games against 1A opposition, who would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and my math model projects 7.0 yppl and 41 points for the Nittany Lions in this game. Penn State combines their explosive offense with a devastatingly good defense that has yielded just 4.0 yppl in 6 Division 1A games to a schedule of teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive unit. Michigan is pathetic offensively, averaged just 4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and the Wolverines averaged a paltry 3.2 yppl at home against the only really good defensive team that they faced (Utah). Penn State can name the score in this game and my math model projects a 35 point win if the Nittany Lions play their starters the entire game. Penn State’s backups haven’t given up many points either this season and my math model gives the Nittany Lions a 61.8% chance of covering at -23 ½ points even without factoring in the 64-20 ATS home favorite momentum situation that applies to Penn State. I’ll take Penn State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -26 points or less and for 2-Stars from -26 ½ or -27 points.
3 Star Selection
***Oregon St. (-14.0) 45 WASHINGTON 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Oregon State is not getting enough respect, which probably goes back to their opening game loss to Stanford and their 14-45 loss at Penn State in game 2. However, the Beavers are a very good team and their win over USC was no fluke. The loss to Stanford was a fluke, however, as Oregon State out-gained a better than average Cardinal team 6.0 yards per play to 4.9 yppl on the road. Losing big at Penn State is not such a negative now given how the Nittany Lions have been dominating everyone and the Beavers actually played better than average on both sides of the ball in that game after taking into account how good Penn State is. Oregon State’s other loss was by just 3 points on the road to a very good Utah team and the Beavers out played the Utes 6.3 yppl to 4.9 yppl in that game. Oregon State has played the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation and the Beavers have out-gained their opponents 5.9 yppl to 4.9 yppl, which is extremely impressive considering their opponents would combine to out-gain an average team 5.9 yppl to 4.8 yppl. Washington has played the toughest schedule in the nation, but the Huskies have been dominated to the tune of 4.5 yppl on offense while allowing 7.5 yppl and being out-scored by an average of 18.6 to 42.0. Washington is a couple of points better with sophomore quarterback Ronnie Fouch in place of injured starter Jake Locker, as Fouch is a better passer, but the Huskies rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average with Fouch at quarterback and Oregon State is 1.0 yppl better than average on defense. The Beavers have only allowed more than 4.9 yppl to Penn State and USC, two of the top 5 offensive units in the nation, and Washington has scored more than 14 points only against BYU and Stanford, who are both closer to mediocre defensively than good. Oregon State is actually the best defensive teams that Washington has faced this season so far and I just don’t see the Huskies getting more than 17 to 20 points in this game unless the Beavers are very negative in turnovers. Oregon State will probably only have to score 30 to 35 points to cover the spread in this game and the Huskies have allowed an average of 42 points to teams that are collectively 0.3 yppl worse offensively than Oregon State would be on the road against an average team. Oregon State, meanwhile, has faced only one worse than average defense and the Beavers scored 66 points in that game last week against Washington State despite turning the ball over 4 times. Oregon State has a history of beating up on mediocre and bad conference foes under coach Mike Riley, whose team is now 16-4 ATS in conference games against teams with a win percentage of .500 or lower (5-0 ATS since last season). The Huskies, meanwhile, are now just 6-17 ATS in Pac-10 games when not an underdog of at least 20 points under coach Willingham. Perhaps the line on this game is much lower than it should be because people remember Washington’s near upset of an overrated BYU team. However, Washington was out-gained 5.0 yppl to 7.4 yppl and it was a fluke that they were even close in that contest. I’ll take Oregon State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -17 points.
3 Star Selection
***Missouri 37 TEXAS (-5.0) 32
05:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
The line on this game is a bit off due to last week’s disparate results, with Texas upsetting Oklahoma and Missouri getting upset by Oklahoma State, and the Tigers apply to a great bounce-back situation this week to go along with the line value that last week provided. Missouri lost last week to a very good Oklahoma State team due to 3 rare interceptions by Chase Daniel, who had thrown just 1 in 5 previous games, but the Tigers out-gained the Cowboys 6.5 yards per play to 6.0 yppl – which is very good considering Oklahoma State would out-gain an average team 6.7 yppl to 5.1 yppl on the road. Texas, meanwhile, was out-gained by an average of 6.3 yppl to 6.7 yppl by Oklahoma but took advantage of a +2 in turnover margin to win that game. The Longhorns did actually perform very well, as Oklahoma would out-gain an average team 6.8 yppl to 4.5 yppl on a neutral field. So, Missouri was 2.1 yppl better than an average team in defeat last week while Texas was 1.9 yppl better than average in victory. The season numbers for these two teams also favor the Tigers, as Missouri has been an incredible 2.6 yppl better than average offensively with Chase Daniel in the game (8.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. Texas has been 1.4 yppl better than average offensively with Colt McCoy under center, but I rate the Longhorns attack at +1.7 yppl with RB Chris Ogbonnaya as the main back the last two games (he’s averaging 7.1 ypr while the other two main backs have averaged just 3.7 ypr). The Longhorns’ defense has been just 0.4 yppl better than average this season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and they gave up 6.7 yppl and 8.7 yards per pass play to Oklahoma last week and Missouri’s offense is better than that of the Sooners. Missouri actually has a huge advantage from the line of scrimmage using all games played by both teams (Missouri is a total of +3.1 yppl and Texas is at +2.1 yppl), but the Tigers racked up some big numbers against bad teams and I decided to do a profile analysis to get a better idea of how good each team has fared against good competition. Missouri’s offense has faced two better than average defensive teams in Illinois and Oklahoma State and the Tigers are have been a less incredible 1.6 yppl better than average on offense in those 2 games (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl) while the Texas defense was just 0.1 yppl better than average in the only game they’ve played against a good offensive team (last week against Oklahoma). Texas has faced two better than average defensive teams (the last two week against Colorado and Oklahoma) and the Longhorns’ attack has been 1.4 yppl better than average in those games (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 4.7 yppl). Missouri’s defense, meanwhile, has had to face 4 good offensive teams this season in Illinois, Nevada, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State and the Tigers have been 0.8 yppl better than average defensively in those games, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 6.4 yppl against an average team. The profile analysis reveals that Missouri has been 2.4 yppl better than average against good competition (+1.6 yppl on offense and +0.8 yppl on defense) while Texas has been +1.5 yppl better than average against better competition (+1.4 yppl on offense and +0.1 yppl on defense) – so Missouri still has a solid advantage. Neither quarterback makes a habit of throwing interceptions (I project Texas with a +0.3 turnover margin) and Missouri only has a slight edge in special teams and it is pretty clear to me that the Tigers are the better team getting nearly a touchdown. Missouri’s loss last week also sets them up in a very strong 25-1 ATS subset of a 65-12 ATS bounce-back situation that has been very good to me over the years (23-5 ATS since I discovered the situation). I’ll take Missouri in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more, for 4-Stars at +6 or more and for 2-Stars at +3 points.
2 Star Selection
**NAVY 30 Pittsburgh (-3.0) 26
12:30 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Pittsburgh is an overrated team with a 1-4 spread mark that is suddenly ranked because they beat another overrated team in South Florida two weeks ago. The Panthers have out-gained an average schedule of opponents by only 5.1 yards per play to 4.8 yppl while rating at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively. The Pitt defense, while very good overall, isn’t good defending the run (5.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team), so the match-up against Navy’s option attack is a bad one for the Panthers – whose great pass defense is a non-factor in this game. Pittsburgh had a very good run defense last season and still couldn’t handle Navy’s option attack in a 45-48 loss in which the Midshipmen racked up 497 total yards at 5.9 yppl. Navy’s offense this season is as good as ever, as the Middies have averaged 5.7 yppl in 5 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team. Navy isn’t as good with backup quarterback Jarod Bryant running the attack (just 0.4 yppl better than average), but starting quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has practiced with the first team unit this week and looks like he may be ready to play on his strained hamstring. Navy is 1.1 yppl better than average with Kaheaku-Enhada at quarterback, but I’ll assume Bryant will play the entire game just to be conservative. Navy’s defense is still an issue, as they rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average, but Pittsburgh likes to run the ball and the Middies are good against the run (4.2 yprp allowed in 5 Division 1A games against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average defense). While Pittsburgh would rate a slight edge overall from the line of scrimmage, the match-up of Navy’s run-heavy attack makes a Pitt defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average less effective and my math model projects Navy to average 6.1 yppl with 344 rushing yards while Pitt manages just 5.4 yppl with their bad offense going up against Navy’s bad defense. Navy should be favored in this game even if I assume Kaheaku-Enhada will not play for the Midshipmen, which is probably not the case. I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.15 odds or better) and I’d consider Navy a Strong Opinion from +2 ½ to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
**NEVADA (-21.0) 46 Utah St. 16
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Nevada did not match up well with New Mexico State last week, as the Aggies were able to exploit the week Wolf Pack secondary in a 48-45 upset win. Nevada is now 1.7 yards per pass play worse than average defensively (7.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppp against an average team), but Utah State’s porous pass attack is not likely to exploit that weakness today and the Wolf Pack are among the best in the nation defending the run (3.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp). Utah State’s dual quarterbacks have averaged only 5.0 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) and the Aggies have managed just 4.7 yards per play overall this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Nevada is 0.6 yppl worse than average overall defensively, but that number is skewed by the 10.0 yppl they gave up to Missouri and the Wolf Pack gave up a reasonable 4.2 yppl at Idaho, the only average or worse Division 1A offense that they’ve faced (Idaho would average 4.5 yppl at home against an average team), and they also allowed just 3.4 yppl to Grambling. Utah State may score around 20 points in this game, but Nevada has scored 45 points or more in all but the two games in which they faced good defensive teams in Texas Tech and Missouri. The Wolf Pack have averaged 7.0 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) with starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick on the field and Utah State, while not horrible defensively at 0.3 yppl worse than average, isn’t good enough to stop Nevada from scoring. Kaepernick is one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation (673 yards on 58 rushing plays) while also being a good passer (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and Kaepernick has thrown just 6 interceptions in 395 career pass attempts. Nevada also has two running backs that have averaged over 6 yards per rush and they are tough to stop. Utah State has faced just one team with good running backs and a running quarterback and the Aggies allowed 425 rushing yards at 8.3 yprp and 66 points at Oregon, so they don’t figure to have much luck stopping Nevada today. My math model only favors Nevada by 22 points, but the Wolf Pack apply to a very strong 75-17 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 10-2 ATS for me since I discovered it a few years ago. I’ll take Nevada in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Stanford (-1.5) 29 UCLA 19
01:00 PM Pacific, 18-Oct-08
Stanford starting quarterback Tavita Pritchard was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion and was playing very well at the time, but backup Alex Loukas led the game winning drive over Arizona running a spread option attack that surprised the Wildcats. Pritchard has been upgraded to probable and the Cardinal are a much better team than UCLA. Stanford’s offense has averaged 5.6 yppl when Pritchard has been in the game (against teams that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average team) and while Pritchard’s numbers are a bit below average, the Cardinal have two very good running backs in Toby Gerhart (641 yards at 5.8 ypr) and Anthony Kimble (419 yards at 6.3 ypr) and have averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow just 4.6 yprp to an average team). UCLA has given up 5.5 yprp this season (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average defensive team) and they gave up 345 rushing yards at 8.6 yprp last week at Oregon and could stop Fresno State either (219 yards at 5.8 yprp) – so Stanford’s rushing attack should work well. Overall UCLA’s defense is just 0.2 yppl better than average, so the Cardinal have an advantage when they have the ball. Stanford also has an advantage when the Bruins have the ball. UCLA’s porous attack has averaged only 4.5 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while the Stanford defense is 0.1 yppl better than average. Stanford also has superior special teams in addition to being 1.4 yppl better than UCLA on offense and only 0.1 yppl worse than the Bruins on defense. In addition to the line value, the Cardinal apply to a very strong 71-19-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.
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#146410 - 10/17/08 06:18 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: pitt]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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PACKERBACKER....THANKS TO PITT .....ON NORTH COAST BIG DOGGIES
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#146411 - 10/17/08 06:21 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
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Registered: 09/29/06
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Loc: alabama
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NORTH COAST SPORTS
BIG 12 POW
BAYLOR +17
NORTH COAST HAS..... 5* GOM...GOING TODAY?????
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#146413 - 10/17/08 06:31 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
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JIM FEIST
Mia/DUKE...UNDER 42'
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#146414 - 10/17/08 06:33 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
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Loc: alabama
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DAVE COKIN
MARSHALL -2'
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#146427 - 10/17/08 08:42 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45458
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Larry Ness
20* Big 10 Game of the Year
My 20* play is on Ohio State at 3:30 ET. Most CFB fans are probably hoping that Ohio State doesn't make it back to a third straight BCS title game, after the Buckeyes' performance in the last two. When Ohio State was humbled 35-3 by USC in Los Angeles back on September 13, a return trip to the BCS title game was the last thing on head coach Jim Tressel's mind but the Buckeyes have won four straight and do enter this game with Michigan State ranked 12th in the nation and remain unbeaten in the Big 10. Michigan State was unranked before the 2008 season began and a season-opening 38-31 loss at Cal came as no real surprise. However, the Spartans have won six straight and enter this game ranked 20th, after beating an undefeated (but probably overrated) Northwestern team last week, 37-20. I'll get to Ohio State in a minute but is MSU really a top-25 team? I say N-O! Two of the Spartans' six wins have come against Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic (a combined 3-10) plus another win came at Indiana, 42-29. The Hoosiers are one of just four current Division I-A schools which have yet to earn an ATS win (0-4-1) and one should remember that MSU win for one of this year's most dramatic "turnaround" moments. Indiana connected on a 97-yard TD pass late in the third quarter, that appeared to give the Hoosiers the lead. Instead, an OL was called for holding in the end zone, giving Michigan State a safety and a 36-29 lead. The Hoosiers never recovered. MSU's other wins this year came in home games over Notre Dame (23-7) and Iowa (16-13) plus the aforementioned win at overrated Northwestern. QB Brain Hoyer played very poorly early on, completing just 44.6 percent of his throws over the team's first four games with just one TD and two INTs. He did throw for 321 yards against Cal but averaged just 126.3 YPG over the next three. He has "picked up the pace" in his last three games (58.6 percent / 204.7 YPG / 5 TDs and 1 INT) but he is still bothered by a sore shoulder. The heart and soul of the offense is RB Ringer, who is second in the nation in rushing (158.9 YPG) and leads the nation with 14 TDs. However, he's averaged just 3.6 YPC over his last two games against Iowa and Northwestern (60 attempts) and will face an Ohio Sate defense which plays the run very well (103.6 YPG allowed / 3.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Devin Thomas (79 catches / 8 TDs) left early for the NFL, leaving Hoyer with sophomore Dell (has just 20 catches and is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury) and freshman Cunningham (19 catches) as his primary targets to go up against a veteran OSU secondary (Buckeyes are ranked 13th in defensive pass efficiency). OSU may be 6-1 but the team's 1-5 ATS mark proves the Buckeyes have underperformed in '08. However, the team was able to win at Wisconsin two weeks ago and while the offense was less-than-impressive at Purdue last week, the 'D' was in fine form (Purdue's lone score came on a 53-yard FG). Freshman QB Pryor 'exploded' on the scene with four TD passes as well as 66 yards rushing against Troy but after another solid game vs Minnesota (TD pass plus 97 yards rushing and two more TDs), has not been very productive the last two weeks. He did lead OSU on the game-winning drive in the late 4th-quarter at Wisconsin but while he's completed 69.7 percent of his throws the last two games, he's averaging only 120.5 YPG through the air, while running 29 times for only 47 yards (1.6 YPC). Beanie Wells looked very good in his first two games back (106 and 168 yards while averaging 7.6 YPC) but concerns regarding his foot returned after he gained 94 yards on 22 carries vs Purdue. In the end, I'm not even a little bit sold on MSU being an "elite" team, while the Buckeyes have been just that since 2002 (one national title and two other BCS title game losses). OSU has dominated the Big 10 since 2002, going 43-8 SU, with four of those losses coming in the '04 season. The Buckeyes have gone 25-2 SU in the Big 10 since the beginning of the '05 season and take a 12-game road winning streak in Big 10 play into this game. OSU has won six straight (11 of 13) against MSU, including a 24-17 win last year in Columbus, where the Buckeyes outgained the Spartans 422 to 185 in yards but saw the Spartans return an INT 54 yards for a TD and a fumble 25 yards for a TD. Don't expect the Spartans to be "that lucky again" and remember that the Buckeyes have won eight of their last nine road games against ranked teams. Big 10 Game of the Year 20* Ohio State.
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#146428 - 10/17/08 08:46 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Tom Stryker
6* College Late Phone Selection
#384 TULSA (-) over Texas El Paso at 8 PM EST
You'll have to forgive Tulsa for not whipping the pants off SMU last week. The Golden Hurricane didn't want to give too much away especially with a revenge war against Texas El Paso on deck.
Surprisingly, with a perfect 6-0 SU record, TU isn't getting any love from the polls. This team is NO WHERE in the Top 25! That fact will have TU motivated today. Crushing a Texas El Paso squad that enters off three consecutive straight up wins and a shiny 3-0 SU mark in the conference will certainly earn the respect of the voters! No one likes to be snubbed from the rankings especially when they deserve to be there. Rest assured, if the Golden Hurricane get a chance to pour it on, they will!
Technically speaking, there are a trio of factors that back this TU investment. First, at home off a straight up win and matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up victory, Tulsa is a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS provided they are priced as a favorite or an underdog of +9 or less. Second, as a guest going into revenge and matched up against an opponent that enters off an ATS loss, UTEP has hit rock bottom notching an ugly 0-9 ATS record. Finally, undefeated hosts at game seven or later are a respectable 23-11 ATS provided both teams enter off straight up victories and our play on side arrives off an ATS loss.
Since 1985, the Miners have posted a woeful 1-19 SU and 7-13 ATS record on the road matched up against an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage of .800 or better. The Golden Hurricane have played three games in the newly renovated H.A. Chapman Stadium and they won those by the combined score of 181-76 or an average of 35.0 points per game. With another decisive home win, TU keeps its BCS hopes alive and they'll pick up the Top 25 ranking it deserves. Take Tulsa. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
College Football System Play of the Week!
Sometimes sports investors think too much. I can’t tell you the number of times I didn’t wager on a certain team because I “felt” the situation wasn’t right. Karma has a lot to do in the mindset of a gambler. I’m guilty. I admit it.
Thankfully, I have my college football database to keep things simple for me. Hey, why bother with technical reason? If the computer says a team is in a 65 percent or 85 percent winning situation who am I to disagree! This week’s College System of the Week is an excellent example of what I mean.
You’re on your way up to the window in Las Vegas with a winning ticket in hand. Your “play on” team just crushed its opponent and already you’re thinking in your head on why you shouldn’t invest on this same team in its next game. Why? Does it state somewhere in the book “Gambling for Dummies” that a team coming off a blowout win can’t repeat its most recent performance in its next game? At times, your “gambling mind” tries to out think every possible situation and scenario in pursuit of its next victory. When you feel yourself going into this zone, try and remember the KISS philosophy – you know, Keep It Simple Stupid. You’ll see what I mean after you take a look at this incredible technical situation.
Since 1980, PLAY ON game two or later college football home dogs or home favorites of -26 or less provided they own a won/loss percentage of .500 or better, scored 55 points or more in its last game and enter off a victory of 21 points or more.
28 Year ATS Record = 188-103-7 ATS for 64.6 percent!
This Week’s Play’s = LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE
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#146429 - 10/17/08 08:49 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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EZWINNERS
*** 10 STAR GAME OF THE YEAR ***
10 STAR: (925) BOSTON (+$130) over Tampa Bay
(Action)(Risking $1000 to win $1300)
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#146431 - 10/17/08 11:43 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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Henryjames
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igz1 sports
CFB & MLB Saturday Oct. 18th picks
CFB
5* Texas -3.5 (-110) Wait till an hour before game time get it for -3 or -2.5
4* Kentucky -7 (-110)
4* Over 61 (-110) Kansas vs Oklahoma
4* Over 55 (-110) Western Michigan vs Central Michigan
3* Uconn -1 (-110)
3* Over 55 (-110) So Cal vs Washington State
3* Kansas State +3 (-110)
3* Texas Tech -20.5 (-110)
MLB
4* Over 8.5 (-125) Boston vs Tampa Bay
Good Luck Everyone Lets keep the winners coming http://www.igz1sports.com !!!
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#146432 - 10/17/08 11:44 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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Ethan Law
3% Arizona +3
3% San Jose State/new Mexico State Under 52
2% Oklahoma State -17
2% Marshall -3
2% Ohio State -3 -$115
2% Unlv +4.5
2% Washington +16
2% East Carolina -8
2% Smu +13.5
Opinion: Washington +$425
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#146433 - 10/17/08 11:45 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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Smart Betting FROM DON WAGNERS SITE - Big 10 GOY
Michigan----->confirmed
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#146434 - 10/17/08 11:45 PM
Re: 10/18
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Miami Florida Hurricanes @ Duke Blue Devils - Saturday October 18, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Duke Blue Devils +3 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: North Carolina Tar Heels @ Virginia Cavaliers - Saturday October 18, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) TOTAL: Over 44.5 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Mississippi Rebels @ Alabama Crimson Tide - Saturday October 18, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Mississippi Rebels +12 (-110)
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#146448 - 10/18/08 10:53 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: Henryjames]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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NORTH COAST SPORTS
NCAA COMP POW....RICE -2
NCAA TV POD...NORTHWESTERN -4
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#146449 - 10/18/08 10:55 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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PAUL BOVI
Idaho/LaTECH....OVER 56
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#146450 - 10/18/08 10:56 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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GREG DARABAN
ARIZONA +2
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#146451 - 10/18/08 11:05 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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GINA
TAMPA BAY -140
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#146452 - 10/18/08 11:06 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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MR."A"
NCAA
UTAH -22
USC -42'
PENN STATE -24'
MLB
TAMPA BAY -140
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#146453 - 10/18/08 11:11 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2988
Loc: alabama
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JOHNNY GUILD
alabama-11
oregon st. -16
tulsa -18'
ILLINOIS -15'
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#146454 - 10/18/08 11:20 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: bug]
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tinfw17
Member
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 1853
Loc: TX
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O.C. Dooley
"1 UNIT" PRIMETIME INJURY INTANGIBLE (Florida International +10 at Troy State in a 7:05 eastern kickoff broadcast as part of the ESPN Gametime package):
Even though this is a rare home appearance, Troy State is in a classic "letdown" spot this evening as their last game actually was on NATIONAL-TV when they went on the road during the week and defeated conference rival Florida Atlantic in front of the ESPN2 cameras. Even though they do not get any national press, one of the biggest success stories in the early stages of this collegiate campaign has been Florida International who ended up 2007 with an outright victory. What was the big deal about that? Florida International was riding a disastrous 0-23 losing skid prior to that straight-up triumph in the 2007 regular season finale which also happened to be the last game ever to be played in Miami's famed Orange Bowl Stadium. The Panthers come into tonight's contest already with THREE outright victories, so this program has come a long way in a very short period of time. Since Troy State is coming off a successful National-TV appearance, the line on this game has shot up as they actually opened as just an 8-point home chalk, so we have alot of value with the underdog. Troy State has an INJURY problem at a critical position as quarterback Jamie Hampton (knee) has just been lost for the remaider of the season. I have found out that on the practice field, young sophomore Tanner James and Levi Brown (transfer from Richmond) have actually SPLIT snaps and both will be used at the quarterback slot. Not only has Troy State just lost a signal caller, starting offensive center Danny Franks (sprained ankle) is NOT 100% healthy. I want all of you to be aware that the last time these two schools met on the Troy State field, it was a very CLOSE contest where the hometeam escaped with a 18-13 victory. In that 2005 encounter, a fumble stopped a potential Florida International scoring drive in the final minute. Not only does Florida International enter tonights game riding a 3-0 SU/ATS run, they did NOT suffer an interception or fumble in that span. This may come as a shock but Florida International's PLUS-SIX turnover ratio is the 19th-best mark in the entire country!
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#146455 - 10/18/08 11:21 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: tinfw17]
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tinfw17
Member
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 1853
Loc: TX
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Matt Fargo
Game: North Texas Mean Green at UL-Monroe Warhawks
Pick: North Texas Mean Green +19 -110
Reason: North Texas is winless on the season but there is no way it should be catching this many points against a team that is only one win better. The Mean Green have not been competitive at all this season as they are getting outscored by over 37 ppg. To their credit, the schedule has been a tough one as it is currently ranked 31st toughest in the nation. Kansas St., Tulsa and LSU starting the slate and losing big games to those teams was no surprise at all.
The Warhawks come in 1-5 on the season and while they have been more competitive, there is a good reason for it. The lone victory came against Alabama A&M so like North Texas, it has yet to defeat a FBS team. This is the first of three straight home games for UL-Monroe but with the final two coming against Florida Atlantic and Troy, it could already be lookahead time. Obviously, the Warhawks want to come out of here victorious, but I do not see and full effort in this one.
Looking at rushing offense and defense and passing offense and defense, these two teams are not far off from each other as the average ranking of those four categories is a good indicator of where the two stack up. The North Texas average is 93rd while the UL-Monroe average is 97th so the Mean Green actually have a slight edge and this is with playing a tougher schedule. The Warhawks defense was supposed to be one of the better units in the league but it is currently ranked 7th in the SBC in total defense.
North Texas can take advantage of this soft defense. The team has not been able to get many points on the board but the offense has been able to move the ball as it is 61st in the country in total offense including 38th in passing offense. The Mean Green are 71st in rushing offense and they can improve upon that here going up against the 118th ranked rushing defense. The Warhawks allowed an unfathomable 556 yards rushing against Louisiana-Lafayette.
The UL-Monroe offense does have a playmaker in quarterback Kinsmon Lancaster as he is 49th in the nation in total offense. The problem has been converting the plays that count and that namely is on third down. The Warhawks are 118th in the country in third down conversion at a mere 24.4 percent. The North Texas defense isn’t like to hold them down much but it likely won’t have to. North Texas is hoping for a shootout which is the way it can win and stay within this inflated number. 3* North Texas Mean Green.
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#146456 - 10/18/08 11:27 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: tinfw17]
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tinfw17
Member
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 1853
Loc: TX
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Randall the Handle
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
TEXAS –3½ over Missouri (8:00 PM) PINNACLE
Line opened at 4½ and has been bet down due to the letdown factor (Texas whacked the #1 team in the nation last week) but I’m not buying into that for a minute. In fact, the Longhorns have covered eight of their last 10 games after the Red River Rivalry and although Mizzou is a good team, this is a cheap lay at home for the Longhorns. There’s not a more efficient team in the red zone then the Longhorns and they should get tons of opportunities down there again. You see, the Tigers have the third worst time of possession per game in the country and that’s because they score so quickly. Thin is, that’ll work against them here because they just can’t afford to keep their defense on the field that long against this offensive juggernaut and they’ll pay the price. It might stay close for a while but you can expect the Longhorns to put this intruder away in the second half. Play: #354 Texas –3½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Vanderbilt +15 over GEORGIA (12:30 PM) SPORTSINTERACTION
The Bulldogs defense is very tough and they’re at home but this Bulldogs team does not muster up enough offense to warrant being a 15-point favorite over the ranked Commodores. The Bulldogs résumé is just not that strong, period. They surrendered 40 points to Bama, they beat South Carolina 14-7, they beat Arizona St, 27-10, they beat Tennessee last week 26-14 and surely the Commodores defense is as good as any of those. Yes, Vandy will have a tough time scoring too but we’re relying on their defense to create a couple of turnovers, get to the Bulldogs QB, Matthew Stanford because of a banged up and rather ineffective Georgia O-line and keep this one well within this margin. Play: #337 Vanderbilt +15 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
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#146457 - 10/18/08 11:29 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: tinfw17]
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tinfw17
Member
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 1853
Loc: TX
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Randall the Handle NHL
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games include OT unless stated otherwise
WASHINGTON -½ +1.35 over New Jersey (REG) PINNACLE
Both these teams are 3-1 but from what I’ve seen so far is a potent looking Capitals team that dominates the play for long stretches at a time playing an average looking Devils team that cannot even come close to keeping pace with the Caps. I’m not even convinced that the Devils are the better defensive team either. The Devils wins have come against the Islanders, an exhausted and banged up Penguin team upon their arrival home from overseas and the Thrashers. In four games they’ve scored six goals and it came against teams that are known to be not that difficult to score against. Furthermore, the Devils will play their fourth straight on the road here. The Caps are 2-0 at home, outscoring the opposition 9-3 and that includes a 5-1 pasting over the Canucks. They also beat Chicago and Pittsburgh. The Caps are an offensive juggernaut and it’s not just Alex Ovechkin. The Caps are tough, they’re quick they roll out four solid lines and they’re absolutely one of the top five teams in the NHL. The Devils try and win games 2-1 and it’ll work sometimes but this guest is just not that strong and when they did play a good team, the Rangers, they were buried 4-1. Devils get exposed again. Play: Washington -½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON -½ +1.19 over Calgary (REG) PINNACLE
The Oilers went into Calgary last night and won 4-3 but that score is a little flattering to the Flames. The Oilers got to every loose puck and they drew a bunch of penalties, scored three times on the power-play, opened up a 4-2 lead going to the third and finished the deal. It should be noted that Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers was in goal for the Oilers last night and he looked very shaky and even allowed a couple of soft goals, yet the Flames still couldn’t do much. Garon will be back in net tonight and he’s been brilliant thus far. By contrast, Mikko Kiprusoff looks lost out there. He played a little better last night but he still looked way out of sorts and it appeared that pucks hit him as oppose to him making the save. Who knows if Mike Keenan will stick with Kiprusoff tonight or go with rookie Curtis McElhinney. Either way, that decision can’t hurt the Oilers. The tension in the Flames dressing room is getting thicker by the minute, as that whack-job Keenan is about to go off any minute. I said it yesterday and it’s worth repeating that the Oilers are getting stronger with each passing period. This is a hugely talented team that is loose, racking up wins, and having fun while the Flames are the exact opposite. The Oilers won last night and there’s not a single reason they can’t repeat in their own barn tonight. Play: Edmonton -½ +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.08 over ST. LOUIS PINNACLE
The Blue Notes are playing some very decent hockey this far and what they lack in talent they make up for in heart and that often goes a long way. Having said that, this choice has very little to do with playing against the Blues but more to do with playing on the talented Black Hawks. You see, the Black Hawks fired Denis Savard and now Joel Quenneville takes over the reins behind the bench and will coach his first game tonight. Players always want to make a strong impression on their new coach and although the firing came as a bit of a shock, there’s no denying that Chicago needed a kick in the ass. Quenneville is a proven winner that gets the best out of players and it’s a move that will pay off, as Savard was just not the right guy. These Black Hawks are way too talented to be losing games to inferior opposition and you can almost be assured that a strong, 60-minute effort by the Black Hawks is forthcoming tonight. I’m playing the “first game for the new coach angle”. Play: Chicago +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.76 over SAN JOSE PINNACLE
Yeah, the Flyers are winless and yeah, the Sharkies are off to a strong start but I’m not here trying to handicap games. I’m here to look for some value, play it and let the chips fall where they may. What I do know is that the Flyers are over-valued here at this price, as they’re a quality team that can absolutely go into San Jose and emerge victorious. Besides that, I’m not as sold on the Sharks as others might be. Their wins have come at the expense of Anaheim, the Kings twice and Columbus before they went into Anaheim last night and lost 4-0. Also note they were losing to Columbus late in the second and then scored two shorthanded goals to take the steam out of the Jackets. Against the Kings they scored four times in two games but won them both. Meanwhile, the Flyers have to be hungry tonight and after playing the Rangers, Pitt, Montreal and Colorado, they just might find the pace here a little more to their liking. The Flyers are too good to remain winless for much longer but more then that is the tag here and anytime we can get a take-back like this on the Flyers you can count me in and I make no exception here. Overlay. Play: Philadelphia +1.76 (Risking 2 units).
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#146458 - 10/18/08 11:30 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: tinfw17]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 18, 2008
$49.00 Guaranteed:
6000* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR
372 Arizona +2.5 10:00 EST
5000* MAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
358 Northern Illinois -9.5 4:00 EST
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#146459 - 10/18/08 11:31 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
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Wayne Root
Chairman - Rutgers
Millionaire - Duke
Moneymaker - Michigan St
No Limit - South Carolina
Insider - Ucla
Billionaire - Missouri
Perfect - Boston College
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#146460 - 10/18/08 11:32 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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goulagirl
Freshman
Registered: 05/31/08
Posts: 47
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Northcoast
5* Ohio St.
4* UNLV
4* Rutgers
4* Ole Miss
3* Pitt
3* Memphis
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#146461 - 10/18/08 11:33 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45458
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Northcoast
5* Ohio St -3
4* UNLV +4
4* Rutgers -1-
4* OLe Miss +11
3* Memphis +8
3* Pitt -2-
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#146462 - 10/18/08 11:33 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
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Rocketman
4* Buffalo
3* Missouri
3* Fl Atlantic
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#146463 - 10/18/08 11:34 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45458
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Maddux sports
5 units on Southern Miss +3
3 units on Connecticut +1.5
3 units on Bowling Green -9.5
3 units on Virginia +4.5
3 units on Northern Illinois -8
3 units on Indiana +15
3 units on Florida Atlantic Pick
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#146464 - 10/18/08 11:34 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45458
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Offline
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Kelso Sturgeon
50 unit Nebraska -7 1/2
10 units Troy -9.5
5 units Arkansas +7.5
4 units Mich St +3.5
3 units Va Tech +3.5
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#146465 - 10/18/08 11:35 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45458
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Offline
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Brandon Lang
15 Dime Georgia Tech
15 Dime Penn State
15 Dime Virginia
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#146466 - 10/18/08 11:35 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45458
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Offline
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Bob Akmens
20 units Tampa Bay -139
8 units Oklahoma State -17
5 units Central Michigan +2
5 units UCLA +2.5
5 units Louisiana Monroe -18
5 units Oregon State -16
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#146467 - 10/18/08 11:36 AM
Re: 10/18
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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