#145981 - 10/12/08 12:52 AM
10/19
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FREAK
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#146220 - 10/13/08 07:48 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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tinfw17
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Randall the Handle
CHICAGO –3 –1.15 over Minnesota
I really have to believe that this line is about as soft as it gets and expect it to come off of three and rise to at least 4½ or more by game time. The Vikes are a bad football team with a very vanilla offense and a coach that is about as bad as they come. Yeah, the Vikes went into New Orleans and beat the Saints on a Monday Night two Sundays ago. However, that 30-27 had to be one of, if not the most misleading score in the history of the NFL. The Vikes were brutalized by the Saints in every way other them costly mistakes and the Bears are a team that seldom make costly errors, instead they cause them. The Vikes followed that up with a last minute win against the Lions and they scored 12 points in doing so. Scoring 12 on the Lions and almost losing the game is about as low as a team can get in this league. Gus Frerotte was sacked five times and, that, too, is embarrassing. Also, the Vikes kick coverage unit is a complete mess and that means Devin Hester will be a huge threat on every punt return and there should be plenty of those. Remember, Reggie Bush returned two to the house in that Monday night contest. The Bears are a quality club with a damn strong defense while the Vikes have nothing except a useless QB, a useless coach that is predictable and a one-dimensional offense that has virtually no chance of success in this setting against this host. This line is way off my friends. Play: Chicago –1.15 (Risking 3.45 units to win 3).
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#146412 - 10/17/08 06:30 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: tinfw17]
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bug
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NORTH COAST
COMP TOTAL POW
Buf/Mia...UNDER 37
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#146503 - 10/18/08 05:18 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: bug]
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FREAK
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RON RAYMOND
5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!!
Carolina Panthers -3
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#146509 - 10/18/08 08:09 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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pitt
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Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers October 19, 2008
Filed Under (Nevada Sharpshooter)
The Colts travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. The up and down Colts found their swagger in a 31-3 whipping of Baltimore. Offensively Indy seems to be hitting their stride, scoring 31 points in each of their last 2 games. At QB Peyton Manning has been solid completing 63 percent of his passes and throwing 8 TDs to 5 INTs. The running game has faltered with Joseph Addai averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. Defensively the Colts have struggled until the Baltimore game. They gave up 29 points to Chicago and 27 to Houston.
Green Bay has also been up and down. After starting the season 2-0 they have lost 2 of their last 3 games with the only win coming against a bad Seattle team without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck. Offensively the Pack has been one dimensional. The passing game has been strong with Aaron Rodgers (11TDs and only 4 INTs) and big play WR Greg Jennings (653 yds, 4TDs). While Rodgers has been everything the Pack could hope for the running game has been horrible. Ryan Grant is averaging 3.4 yards a carry and has yet to cross the goal line. Defensively the Pack gets former 1st round pick Justin Harrell back from injury, but overall the team has been crippled with injuries to key players, some who will be held out like Al Harris and many who will play hurt like AJ Hawk.
This Packer defense was unable to stop Atlanta at home 2 weeks ago and I do not believe that they can stop the Colts either. While the Packer offense should have some success vs the Colts they will not be able to keep up. Take the Indianapolis Colts -1.5 over the Green Bay Packers.
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#146510 - 10/18/08 08:10 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Preview: Minnesota @ Chicago - Sunday, October 19th, 2008
Filed Under (Razor Sharp Sports)
So when you are talking about a division lead being up for grabs in the NFL, you usually aren’t talking about a pair of 3-3 teams doing battle. That is exactly what we have this week as the Minnesota Vikings take on the Chicago Bears. Both teams look like they have plenty of holes, but then again both teams also look like they have plenty of potential to be good football teams. In both cases, they will go as far as their defenses will take them. Let’s take a look at each team a little closer.
If you have ever heard me on the radio, or have read any of my other articles, you may know that my heart is with the Vikings. As a handicapper, I try to keep my heart out of it and this year I have done a pretty good job. I have cashed in by going against Minnesota quite a bit including last week against Detroit. The way they played last week, you can see how easy it is to keep my heart out of it, because that team surely didn’t play with any heart either. Still they did get the win and after a 1-3 start, they have put together 2 wins and are now tied for the division lead. It is the defense that is the strength of this team. Currently they are allowing less than 20 points per game. They rank 7th overall in yards allowed at 284 yards per game and are 4th in rushing defense at 73.7 yards/game. This unit is led by their front line. DTs Kevin and Pat Williams anchor this unit. Kevin Williams has 29 tackles and 6 sacks and Pat Williams has added 24 tackles. They have been helped out by the addition of 2007 sack leader DE Jared Allen. Allen has 16 tackles and 3 sacks. The linebacking unit is banged up. Captain and team leader E.J. Henderson has been lost for the year. Henderson’s back-up David Herron left last weeks contest with a ankle injury. Vinny Ciurciu then stepped in. Ciurciu had just returned from injury himself. Of course, if you are going to talk about the Vikings offense, you have to talk about Adrian Peterson. Peterson currently ranks #3 in the NFL in rushing with 563 yards. Last week, Peterson bounced back with 111 yards, after being held to just 32 against New Orleans, 2 weeks ago. I truly expected Peterson to be helped out with the return of suspended OT Bryant McKinnie two weeks ago, but it has taken a while to get the line that includes 3 Pro Bowlers to gell.
If Peterson and that line is going to get going this week it is going to be against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Chicago Bears are also going to go exactly where their defense takes them. Currnetly the Bears are allowing just 18.2 points per game. They are 12th in the NFL overall in yards allowed at 310.7 yards per game, but are 5th versus the rush at 74.3 yards per game. The names are all still there on the Bears defensive unit. LB Brian Unlacher is the man in the middle and is still the leader. He has 33 tackles this season. He is only behind All-Pro LB Lance Briggs with 37 and S Charles Tillman with 36. Up front Alex Brown (3 sacks )and Adewale Ogunleye (1.5 sacks) lead the pressure on the QB, while Mike Brown and and Kevin Payne handle the defensive backfield. Offensively, QB Kyle Orton has taken over as the starting QB and had done a pretty good job. He is completinig 61.6% of his passes for 231 yards per game 8 TDs and just 4ints. Rookie RB Matt Forte has done a solid job with the ground duties. He has run for 459 yards and has found the endzone 5 times (3 rushing & 2 receiving)>
As I mentioned before, both of these teams are lead by their defensive unit and I again expect a defensive struggle here. Over the last 2 years 3 of the 4 games have had 35 points or less scored in them. Look for another one here. As a free winner for this week take the MINNESOTA/CHICAGO game UNDER the total of 38.5.
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#146513 - 10/18/08 11:52 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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FREAK
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EZ Winners
5* Dallas -7
5* Houston -9.5
3* Indianapolis -1
3* Tampa Bay -10.5
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#146514 - 10/18/08 11:52 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Brandon Lang
30 Dime Colts
5 Dime Rams
5 Dime Dolphins (be sure to buy the half-point if for some reason the line goes to 3-1/2. ONLY LAY 3 POINTS in this football game)
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#146515 - 10/18/08 11:53 PM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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Scott Spreitzer
Blowout Of The Month
Tennessee
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#146516 - 10/18/08 11:53 PM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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Bob Akmens
8 units
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
5 units
New York Giants -10.5
Cleveland Browns +7.5
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#146517 - 10/18/08 11:54 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Lenny Del Genio
25* AFC Game of the Year **60% NFL Run**
Play on Tennessee at 1:00 ET. Larger favorites have not been the way to go this year in the NFL, but considering the matchup, this number is very manageable. In fact, it's way low. Throw Kansas City's 33-19 win over Denver, three weeks ago, right out the window. They came right back the next week and were crushed 34-0 by Carolina, gaining only 127 yards of total offense in the process. Before the 4th quarter started (when the game was far out of reach), they only had 77 yards! Now, they are switching back to Brodie Croyle at QB, the team's FIFTH change under center already this season. Herm Edwards might say "You play to WIN the game," but his team must not be listening as they have lost 13 of 14 games going back to last season and are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 home games. There goes the old homefield advantage that used to exist at Arrowhead. Meanwhile, the 2008 season couldn't be going any more differently for Tennessee. They are the only unbeaten team in the league (both SU and ATS) and while we would normally go against such a team, expecting a letdown, that's not the case with Jeff Fisher who is on a 13-3 ATS run away from home against teams with a win % of .250 or less. They are 13-5-1 ATS their last 19 games overall. The favorite has won and covered three straight in this H2H series. All of these streaks include a 26-17 Titans win here in KC last December. Over their last 10 games, the Titans have not allowed a single opponent to score more than 19 points. Over the same time, they are averaging 23 PPG on offense. They are #1 this year in the league in scoring defense, allowing an average of just 11.2 PPG. KC is also experiencing OL issues with promising rookie Branden Albert possibly out, meaning they have no chance against Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. As a team, they have no chance either. Tennessee is our 25* AFC Game of the Year!
Good luck, Lenny
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#146518 - 10/18/08 11:56 PM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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Al McMordie
100% (15-0 ATS) NFL WINNER (RARE 4* PLAY)
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens plus the points over Miami, as Baltimore falls into several bounce back systems of mine that are 78-33, 55-15, and 77-26 ATS. Last week, of course, the Ravens laid an egg in Indianapolis, and lost 31-3, but Baltimore matches up much better against a run-oriented Miami team than it did against Peyton Manning and the Colts. The Ravens rank first in rush defense and give up just 66.4 rushing yards per game. Finally, Miami is a dismal 0-15 ATS since 2003 at home when NOT an underdog of +3 or more points, and not off a 3 point or greater win. With Miami off a 29-28 loss to Houston, and now favored over the Ravens, the Dolphins fall squarely into its 0-15 ATS team trend. Look for Baltimore to pull the upset in south Florida on Sunday. Take the points.
(11-0 ATS) NFL ROADKILL OF THE WEEK
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders plus the points over the NY Jets. Last week, New York was our "Roadkill Game of the Month", as Cincinnati fell into a nasty 0-13 ATS angle, and the Flyboys rewarded us with a 26-14 win and cover. But now Eric Mangini's squad is the one that falls into a winless situation. Two games back, New York put up 56 points in a blowout win over Arizona, but NFL teams which score more than 50 points, and then follow up that game with an win, are a dismal 0-11 ATS since 1980 in competitively priced games with pointspreads less than 5 points. Look for Oakland to bounce back from its blowout loss to the Saints. Take the home dog Raiders. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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#146519 - 10/18/08 11:57 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Marc Lawrence
The Dolphins return home to host the Ravens in a battle of AFC wannabes in Miami this Sunday. The Dolphins find themselves dressing up as favorites for the first time under head coach Tony Sparano knowing they are 0-10 ATS laying points in games off a loss. On the flip side Baltimore's top-ranked defense is more than 100 YPG better than Miami's defense. Look for the Black Birds to improve to 8-1 ATS on the October road in games off BB SU and ATS losses here today. Take the points with the Ravens.
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#146520 - 10/18/08 11:58 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Big Al Mcmordie
At 1 pm, our member selection is on the New Orleans Saints plus the points over Carolina. Last week, Carolina went on the road, and took on NFC South division rival Tampa Bay. The Panthers were blown out in that game by 24 points, and could suffer a hangover vs. New Orleans on Sunday. Since 1980, NFL home favorites off a 20-point or worse road loss to a division rival are a terrible 43-67 ATS. The road team has won 12 of 15 straight up in this series, and has covered the last 13 in a row, so lets take the points here with the Saints. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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#146521 - 10/18/08 11:58 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Ben Burns
Both these teams played over the total the in their last two games which gives us some extra line value this week with the total above the key number of 44. Several shops have the line as high as 47 - another important number to pay attention to when wagering on NFL totals.
Last year's meeting between these teams - also an October game played at New York - had a total of just 39. In other words, we're getting an extra touchdown to work with this season.
Not surprisingly, the defending champs are substantial favorites. That's worth noting because the under at 6-3 the last nine times that the Giants were favored by 10 or more points and 9-6 the last 15 times that they faced a team with a losing record.
Looking back further and we find the under at a profitable 63-41-1 the last 105 times that the G-Men faced a team with a losing record.
Both teams figure to run the ball frequently, which will help to keep the clock moving. The 49ers know that they are a much better team when Frank Gore gets numerous touches. They should be more anxious than ever to get the ball in his hands, considering that J.T. O'Sullivan has thrown seven interceptions in his last three games and been sacked more times (23) than any other QB in the league.
The Giants, meanwhile, have run the ball 30.2 times per game good for seventh-best in the league. The duo of Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward has already combined for more than 750 yards on the ground. With Eli Manning a bit banged up and coming off a three-interception game, the Giants should feature a heavy dose of the run.
The early kickoff (1:00 ET) is usually difficult for West Coast teams. Last week, the Raiders were the only West Coast team to play an early game in the Eastern Time zone. They were limited to only three points. The 49ers have played one early game this season and managed only 17 points. Last year they scored 17 points or less in all six of their games starting at 1:00 ET, averaging only 14.17 points in those games.
I won't be surprised if the Niners have trouble scoring again this week, particularly when facing a Giants defense allowing just 12 points per game at home.
Consider the under.
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#146522 - 10/18/08 11:58 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Carlo Campanella
The NY Giants (4-1) experienced a letdown on Monday Night Football after crushing Seattle, 44-6. Don't put too much stock into that loss, as the Super Bowl Champs headed to Cleveland on a 12 game road winning streak and Cleveland put on their best effort of the year following a confidence building win over the Bengals and an extra week to rest and prepare following their "Bye" week. The Giants will rebound this week hosting a San Francisco (2-4) squad that's entering this on 3 STRAIGHT losses! Giants are 13-4 ATS in October behind HC Coughlin and 49ers are 1-7 ATS on the road against a Non-Division opponent off a loss.
7* Play On NY Giants
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#146523 - 10/18/08 11:58 PM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Tom Freese
The Jets are 21-7-1 ATS their last 29 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their last game and they are 12-5-1 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last game. Oakland is 28-57-1 ATS their last 86 games and they are 26-54-1 ATS off a straight up loss by more than 14 points. The Raiders are 8-24 ATS their last 32 home games and they are 3-11 ATS after scoring 15 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON NEW YORK JETS
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#146527 - 10/19/08 12:38 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: FREAK]
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Stroker71
Sophmore
Registered: 10/01/08
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Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports
5* Tennessee
4* San Diego
3* Baltimore
3* Den/n. Eng Under
3* ST LOUIS
9-0 Last 2 Sundays
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#146529 - 10/19/08 03:01 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: Stroker71]
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Henryjames
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igz1 sports
NFL
4* Over 47 (-110) Indianapolis vs Green Bay
4* Tennessee -9 (-110)
3* Over 44.5 (-110) New Orleans vs Carolina
3* New York-A -3 (-110)
3* Indianapolis -1 (-110)
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#146530 - 10/19/08 10:03 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: Henryjames]
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pitt
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Spylock
Houston-8 1/2... 1unit
Tampa Bay-10 1/2...1 unit
Denver + 3 ....3 units
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#146531 - 10/19/08 10:04 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Norm Hitzges
3-7 Last week
YTD: 46-30
Double Play
Indianapolis -1 vs Green Bay
Single Play
Oakland +3 vs NY Jets
Cleveland +7.5 vs Washington
Tampa Bay -10.5 vs Seattle
Dallas -6.5 vs St. Louis
New England -3 vs Denver
Indianapolis/Green Bay Over 47
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#146533 - 10/19/08 10:05 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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JB's Computer Picks
Bills +1
Steelers -9½
Chiefs +8
Dolphins -3
Panthers -3
Bears -3
Giants -10½
Cowboys -7
Texans -8½
Redskins -7
Colts -2
Jets -3
Buccaneers -10½ * * * (Best Bet)
Monday, October 20, 2008
Patriots -3
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#146534 - 10/19/08 10:06 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Sports Wise Guys
5 Star Picks (Week 7):
Indianapolis -1.5 over Green Bay
NY Jets -3 over Oakland
San Diego -1 over Buffalo
San Diego/Buffalo over 46.5
Houston/Detroit under 47.5
5-Star NFL Picks Season Total: 19-10-1 (65%)
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#146535 - 10/19/08 10:06 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Jeffersonsports
Nfl Early Release
Buffalo-1
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#146536 - 10/19/08 10:07 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Larry Ness' Week 7 Las Vegas Insider (4-1 with NFL Insiders in '08)
Buffalo
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#146537 - 10/19/08 10:09 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Scott Spreitzer
Blowout Of The Month- Titans
25* BEATDOWN *GAME OF THE YEAR!
Buffalo
-----------------
BIG AL's 100% (43-0) 5* NFL BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR!
Buffalo
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#146538 - 10/19/08 10:09 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Steve Budin
50 Dimer
Chicago Bears
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#146539 - 10/19/08 10:11 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Mighty Quinn~
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7-7 last week
39-46 for the year
1-5 best bets (won his first monday on the browns)
Texans - 9 1/2 best bet ..1-5 on these plays
Giants
Raiders
Titans
Chargers
Pitt
Ravens
Rams
Vikes
Saints
Browns
Packers
Bucs
Broncos
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#146540 - 10/19/08 10:13 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Kelso's NFL Game Of The Year
200 Units
Tennessee Titans (-9) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Prediction: Tennessee by 35
Starting Time: 1:00
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#146541 - 10/19/08 10:14 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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More Kelso
10 bucs
10 pats
5 saints
3 steelers
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#146542 - 10/19/08 10:15 AM
Re: 10/19
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pitt
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Steve Merril
NFL Steamroller Blowout - DAL
NFL Game of the Week - GB
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#146543 - 10/19/08 10:16 AM
Re: 10/19
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pitt
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cappers access
Chiefs
Bengals
Raiders
Buccaneers
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#146544 - 10/19/08 10:17 AM
Re: 10/19
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pitt
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Two Minute Warning
Best Bets
Investor
Kansas City +9
San Diego +1
Cincinnati +9 1/2
Baltimore +3
St. Louis +7 1/2
Minnesota +3
New York Giants -10 1/2
Detroit +9 1/2
Oakland +3
Seattle +10 1/2
Locals Line
3-5 LW
TMW 23-15-2 YTD
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#146545 - 10/19/08 10:17 AM
Re: 10/19
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pitt
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Fatjack (2-0 last week)
NEW ORLEANS +3
THE MIAMI GAME TO GO OVER THE TOTAL OF 36 1/2
WASHINGTON-9
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#146546 - 10/19/08 10:19 AM
Re: 10/19
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pitt
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POINTWISE
NFL Key Selections
2--Dallas over St. Louis 30-10
3--Tampa Bay over Seattle 33-13
4--Washington over Cleveland 27-10
5--NY Jets over Oakland 27-20
5--Houston over Detroit 34-20
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#146547 - 10/19/08 10:21 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Erin Rynning
20* buffalo
10* baltimore
10* carolina
10* detroit
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#146548 - 10/19/08 10:22 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Tim Trushel
20* seattle
10* buffalo
10* minnesota
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#146549 - 10/19/08 10:24 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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yourwinningpicks NFL:
these guys have been hot the last three weeks especially:
***STRONG OPINION****Tennessee Titans (-8.5) VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: After the Giants lost to the Browns on Monday Night, the Titans are now the only undefeated team left in the NFL. They now are giving more than a TD on the road off a bye which is quite interesting since this offense certainly wont be confused with the New Orleans Saints.’ It appears that the odds makers got a little carried away here and this game is one to exploit from a betting angle. The biggest trend that sticks out here us the fact the Chiefs apply to the same 25-3 ATS home underdog angle off a bye that the Browns qualified for last week in their blowout of the Giants. They also qualify for an 11-2 ATS home underdog angle that plays on teams getting more than a TD at home. The Titans are a very good team but their offense is not a quick strike atta ck that can make giving this many points a given. Larry Johnson will be suspended for KC but rookie Jamaal Charles is talented and will keep the ground game on track. The trends are strongly in the Chiefs’ favor and the home underdog angle that played on the Browns last week is a great scenario to back. THE PICK: Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5)
****STRONG OPINION***Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Bengals will once again be without QB Carson Palmer this week as they look for their first win of the season. The Steelers come in off a bye looking to build off their comeback win against the Jaguars the week before. The series history heavily favors the home team as they are 44-22-1 ATS in that scenario. Cincy also qualifies for a 27-8-1 ATS angle that plays on winless teams after Week 6. The thinking goes that these teams go all out in an ef fort to finally get on the board. They certainly showed spunk with a good showing the last two weeks against the Cowboys and Jets and Pittsburgh doesn’t have=2 0the quick-strike ability on offense to run away early. THE PICK: Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5)
****BEST BET****CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) VS. New Orleans Saints: The bad Panthers showed up last week in a lopsided loss to the Buc’s which I called with a BEST BET. I am back on them this week however as this team has always been a great bet off a loss under John Fox and they welcome in a Saints team that cant stop anyone which will help Carolina get their offense back on track. New Orleans is also dealing with RB Reggie Bush being questionable with a bad knee. The key stat here is that the Panthers qualify for a great 46-19-4 ATS angle that plays on home favorites of 3 or more who scored less than 7 points the week before. THE PICK: Carolina Panthers (-3)
***BEST BET****Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Packers righted the ship last week against Seattle and they now find themselves in a very solid situation this week as a slight home underdog. They qualify for a rid iculously good 37-9-1 ATS home underdog angle against a non-division foe. They also qualify for a 22-7 ATS home momentum angle on top of the already solid angle mentioned before. The Colts looked awesome last week against a great Ravens defense but this is a letdown spot for them against a non-division opponent. THE PICK: Green Bay Packers (+1)
*****BEST BET*****WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-7) VS. Cleveland Browns: Classic bounce back/letdown angle at work here as the Redskins qualify for a 24-11-1 ATS home bounce back angle along with a 34-19-1 ATS home favorite against a non-division foe off a short week. The Browns opened some eyes with their solid play against the Giants last week but this team still has major issues on defense and the running game has been terribly inconsistent. Washington will be able to move the ball and they certainly will be more focused off such a lackluster defeat. Trends point firmly in Washington’s favor in this game. THE PICK: Washington Redskins (-7)
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#146550 - 10/19/08 10:25 AM
Re: 10/19
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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ATS Lock Club
6 units Pittsburgh -9.5
5 units Washington -7.5
4 units Saints +3
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#146551 - 10/19/08 10:33 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Rocketman Sports
5* Seattle +10.5
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#146552 - 10/19/08 10:34 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Joyce Sterling
Dallas -7
NFL Home dogs off a SU road win as a dog of 10 or more points are just 3-17 SU and ATS the last 20, they are in for a let down. (We cashed with St.Louis last week)
The Cowboys are much more talented than the Rams.
St. Louis has not scored more than 14 points in 6 of their last 9 games and have been outscored by 102 points in 5 games.
Lay the points
Green Bay +1
10 STAR Game of the Week
The first-year starter, Rodgers, is off to a much better start to the season than Manning, at least statistically. Rodgers' 98.0 passer rating ranks seventh in the league while the former Super Bowl MVP is at 87.8 to rank 14th, with three fewer touchdown passes but one more interception than Brett Favre's replacement.
Packers defense which is holding quarterbacks to a 62.3 passer rating - third-lowest in the league. Led by cornerback Charles Woodson, who tops the NFC with four interceptions,
Green Bay's pass defense ranks seventh in the NFL at 178.8 yards per game.
GB is off back to back home losses and will be entirely focused here as they are 9-1 straight up at home before a bye week.
OVER 37.5 Minnesota vs Chicago
You better believe the Bears will not play passively if they have the lead, after last week's defeat in the last 11 seconds. They will concentrate on offense,
Minny has gone over in every game they played on the road this year.
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#146553 - 10/19/08 10:36 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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VEGAS EXPERTS
Other than the fact that both these teams are coming off a bye week, they have nothing in common. The Titans come in as the NFL's only unbeaten team, SU and ATS, while Kansas City has lost 13 of its last 14 games going back to last year. The Cheifs have covered just two of their last 10 home games. Tennesee has not allowed any of their previous 10 opponents to score more than 19 points. They are #1 in scoring defense and face a KC offense that averages just 13 PPG.
Play on: Tennessee
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#146554 - 10/19/08 10:39 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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ATS Lock Club
6 units Pittsburgh -9.5
5 units Washington -7.5
4 units Saints +3
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#146555 - 10/19/08 10:40 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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Gus Marone
Non Conference GOY
Green Bay
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#146556 - 10/19/08 10:42 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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Larry Ness
Perfect Storm GOM
Miami Dolphins
Weekend Wipeout Winner
San Fran/ NYG OVER
Las Vegas Insider
Buffalo Bills
Oddsmaker's Error
Colts
ALCS Game 7 'Payday'
Boston Red Sox
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#146557 - 10/19/08 10:43 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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GINA
NFL
Sunday, October 19th 4:05 p.m. est.
Detroit Lions (0-5) at Houston Texans (1-4)
The sorry Detroit Lions are scoring an average 15 points per game this season, while giving up 31.8 points. They have been outscored, 159-76. Go with the Texans. Houston's defense will smother the Lions' dreadful offense.
Houston Texans - 9½
Sunday, October 19th 8:15 p.m. est.
Seattle Seahawks (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
The Seahawks are in a mess, injury riddle and will be without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Expect this contest to get ugly. The Buccaneers are 3-0 at home this season. Look for Jeff Garcia and his crew to blow away the struggling Seahawks and finally take a home game against Seattle. The Bucs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 at home. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10
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#146558 - 10/19/08 10:44 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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MR A
New Orleans (3-3) at Carolina (4-2) Carolina Panthers - 3
Tampa Bay. Carolina’s defense will contain the Saints and hopefully Delhomme will be effective and not damaging. The Panthers are 3-0 at home this season and have won four of the last five meetings. Lay the 3 points in a close battle at Bank of America Stadium.
Baltimore (2-3) at Miami (2-3) Miami Dolphins -3
The struggling Ravens offensive line is hurting and rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has been a big letdown. Take the wild Dolphins at home. Miami is 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread in the last four meetings versus Baltimore.
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#146559 - 10/19/08 10:45 AM
Re: 10/19
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FREAK
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Alex Smart
Buffalo Bills +1.0 / 3 units The Buffalo Bills off a bye week ,get ready to take on a San Diego side that is off a big emotional win against the New England Patriots on national TV last Sunday night. Add to that the Chargers are doing the dreaded West Coast , trek to a eastern destination, and you have a double jeopardy let down and scheduling situation .
With the added rest and QB Trent Edwards back in the lineup , after a mild concussion , this Buffalo side is a dangerous team , that remains a top dark horse super bowl contender. The Chargers have the names , and the experience but this is truly a bad spot for them.
Final notes & Key Trends: Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Teams going West to East this year are already 0-4, add one more to that pile of losers after today . The Bills are 13-6 following bye weeks, which ranks in the top 5 in that category since the break was introduced in 1990. That includes a 2-0 record after a off week under head coach Dick Jauron.
Projected Score: Buffalo 27 San Diego 17 -Play on the Bills 3* selection
Tennessee Titans -8.0 / 4 units At this point of the season there is at least 1 team that starts the season on a run and reels off several wins without suffering a loss. Last year of course the New England Patriots nearly made NFL history in their attempt to become the first team to go 19-0, including the playoffs, since the regular season schedule was extended to 16 games; however, they came up short in the Super Bowl. Recent history shows that during the regular season, undefeated teams favored off a bye have continued to dominate their opponents. As long as they didn't shut out their last opponent and aren't playing in a game with a very high or low over/under line, these teams have had little problem maintaining their perfect record and covering the spread, recording a 20-0 SU and 20-0 ATS mark, winning outright by an average of 19.8 ppg. Tennessee at a perfect 5-0 fits in to the above parameters. I am usually all over a live home, dog, but this week, we're dealing with a corpse (KC), and feel very strongly the superior road team romps to a one sided victory. Last year the Titans won 26-17 at Arrowhead Stadium, but this version is even better than that version, and even more lopsided score should be expected.
Last year there were 2 active games and the games were never in doubt. In a Monday Night Football game on ESPN in Week 7, the Colts came off their bye and blasted the Jaguars on the road, covering the spread by 19 points. Then in Week 11, New England stormed out of their bye with a 46-point demolition of Buffalo, covering by 30' points.
Final notes & Injuries: KC RB Larry Johnson OUT Sunday due to a possible suspension which will effect their ground attack.Kansas City QB Brodie Croyle has been upgraded to Probable with a shoulder injury and expected to start, which has proven to not necessarily be a good thing.
Projected score: Tennessee 28 KC 9 4* selection
Pittsburgh Steelers -Cincinnati Bengals u35.0 / 3 units The Cincinnati Bengals really had a hard time moving the ball last week, and nothing will change this Sunday, as QB Carson Palmer stays out with an injury. His replacement the light armed Ryan Fitzpatrick , cannot air it out like Palmer, and with the running game also showing very little sign of life, its going to be tough sledding against a Steeler defense that will stack the line and dare the Bengal pivot to throw the ball.
Meanwhile, the Steelers Ben Roethlisberger because of a obviously weak offensive line, has been sacked 18 times in 5 games. With main stay RB Willie Parker (knee) expected to miss Sundays game , the banged up, Steelers ground attack will not be able to take the pressure off of him. It must be noted Bengals are fourth in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 167.3 yards per game through the air.
This contest has all the makings of being a grinding low scoring affair.
Final notes & Key Trends: The Cincinnati offense has averaged 9.5 PPG at home this season and have scored an average 14.7 PPG on the season. The Steelers in 3 road games have only averaged 14 PPG. Steelers have gone under in 4 of their L/5 on the road off a bye. Under is 6-0 in Bengals last 6 vs. AFC North. Under is 9-3 in Bengals last 12 vs. a team with a winning record . Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cincinnati .
Play under 3* selection
Seattle Seahawks +11.0 / 3 units Seneca Wallace is expected to start at QB this week instead of the inconsistent Charlie Frye, who had started the last game because of an injury to starter Matt Hasselback. We get a good situation to bet in to, as Seneca Wallace has played in 24 NFL games, and can beat you with his arms and legs, providing opposing defenses with a lot of head aches, because of his mobility. Add to that the expected return of WR Deion Branch and this traveling Seahawks team looks like a very good underdog bet.
The Seahawks did not play well last time out losing a 27-17 decision to the Green Bay Packers, which followed up a horrendous effort against against the defending champs the NY Giants in their previous outing. Needless to say the team as a whole, will be very motivated to perform in this spot, against a Tampa Bay franchise that they have had success in the past as is evident by winning 7 of the L/8 meetings.
This is what I am betting will happen..... I expect Seattle will pound the running game down | | | | |
