#144821 - 09/28/08 12:04 PM
10/3
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
Offline
|
|
Rules of the Service Play Area
1. Do not post Newsletter Selections, please refer to the weekly newsletter topic for information.
2. Please try not to post duplicates.
3. Take part in the rest of what the forum has to offer.
4. Use this information as a guide to help you but don't make your picks solely off of one handicapper. It's your money, use it wisely.
5. The overall goal is to win $, remember bet with your head not over it.
6. If you're not a member of the site Click here to become one
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144937 - 09/29/08 06:56 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
Online
|
|
NORTH COAST SPORTS EARLY BIRD POW
FLORIDA -24
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145188 - 10/02/08 11:08 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: bug]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Thanks for being a member and supporting the community.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145192 - 10/03/08 10:12 AM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Dr Bob
3* Utah St
BYU has won their 4 games by an average score of 43-11 and Utah State has lost their two games to good teams by scores of 24-66 at Oregon State and 10-58 at home against Utah . Those scores are the reason that BYU is favored by 4 touchdowns on the road, but the reality is that Utah State is not as bad as those two games make them look and BYU is not as good as their scores make them look. BYU is a good team that is 0.9 yards per play better than average with starting quarterback Max Hall on the field (6.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl). Those are good numbers, but they are not as dominating as their scores suggest and the absence of senior receiver Michael Reed (16 receptions in 3 games before getting injured) hurts the pass offense, as Hall had his worst game without Reed two weeks ago against Wyoming as the receiver filling in for Reed in the rotation caught just 1 pass. Wyoming was the best pass defense that Hall has faced (the Cowboys are about average) and Utah State is solid in pass defense too (6.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team). The Aggies were actually 0.1 yppp better than average against good passing teams Oregon and Utah (6.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.9 yppp). Utah State ’s defensive issue is a run defense that has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp). Oregon’s awesome rushing attack overwhelmed the Aggies for 425 yards at 8.3 yprp, but Utah State has given up a decent 4.7 yprp in their other 3 games (against teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team. Utah 58 points against the Aggies were very misleading, as the Utes averaged a modest 5.6 yppl at home in that game. Overall, Utah State’s defense rates at just 0.4 yppl worse than average, but they’ve been average or slightly better than average in 3 of their 4 games, with only the Oregon game really being a bad defensive performance. BYU should fall well below their average of 43 points against an underrated Utah State defense. Utah State ’s offense isn’t that bad either, especially now that Diondre Borel has taken over the starting job at quarterback. Borel is a very good runner (241 yards on 44 rushing plays) and his passing numbers (5.8 yppp on 82 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) are slightly better than former starter Sean Setzer’s numbers and Setzer couldn’t run. Borel had come off the bench in the Aggies’ first 3 games and rallied the offense more than Setzer could and Utah State ’s attack gained 580 yards at 8.5 yppl while scoring 42 points in Borel’s first start two weeks ago against Idaho . Idaho does have a horrible defense (the Vandals would allow 7.4 yppl on the road to an average team), but 580 yards and 8.5 yppl is impressive regardless of the opponent and Utah State rates at just 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively for the season and 0.2 yppl worse than average with Borel at quarterback. That’s good enough to score a decent number of points against a good but not great BYU defense. My ratings favor BYU by just 23 ½ points in this game and Utah State applies to a very strong 64-16-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 34-83-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation. I’ll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +27 points or more and for 2-Stars from +27 ½ down to +24 points
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145193 - 10/03/08 10:13 AM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Brandon Lang
10 Dime Marshall
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145194 - 10/03/08 10:13 AM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Insider Sports Report
Boston +130
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145195 - 10/03/08 10:14 AM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Jim Feist
Chicago has a terrific offense, 5th in the AL in runs scored, and Tampa Bay is a great, indoor, hitter's park. The White Sox go with veteran lefty Mark Buehrle, who knows about big games having been an anchor on their 2005 World Series championship team. The team is 8-3 his last 11 starts. One of those was a 6-5 win over Tampa Bay, allowing 2 earned runs in 6+ innings. He fanned 5 and walked just 2. Rays lefty Scott Kazmir doesn't come in on a roll, at 1-2 his last 3 starts, giving up 13 runs in 14 innings! He allowed 7 walks in those 13 innings, a terrible ratio. He went 1-1 with an 8.36 ERA in his last three starts. The Sox enter October with Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko all producing. After almost blowing a 15-game division lead in 2005, the Sox played free and easy in the postseason. This is the same scenario as they squeezed into the playoffs. They caught a huge break by advancing to the AL series and are a dangerous team when they're counted out too soon. Play the White Sox.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145196 - 10/03/08 10:14 AM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Dave Cokin
Did the Cubs look just a little tight Thursday night against the Dodgers? If you read my free play analysis, that's exactly what I predicted and I suspect the same thing could take place in Game Two between the Red Sox and Angels. Despite dominating the regular season series this year, the Halos have a disastrous playoff history with the Bosox, and I have to believe the opening game blunders will be in their heads here. Daisuke Matsuzaka never makes it look easy, but he's got an amazing record and he just keeps winning both home and away. I've got to tab the Red Sox to pick up another win.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145197 - 10/03/08 10:16 AM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Marc Lawrence
Game Two of this series finds the Rays going with staff ace Scott Kazmir against Chicago's Mark Buerhle as Tampa looks to go up 2-0 with a win tonight - and we feel they'll get it. Kazmir has been spectacular at home this season, going 12-2 with a 2.90 ERA. He's also 15-3 with a 2.89 ERA at night this season. With Mark Buerhle 3-12 in his last 15 road starts, look for Kazmir to improve to 5-0 on Fridays this season here this evening.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145198 - 10/03/08 10:16 AM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Jimmy The Moose
The under is 21-8-2 in the White Sox last 31 games vs. AL East opponents. The under is a profitable 4-0-1 in Chicago's last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The under is 7-2-1 in Buerhle's last 10 road starts. The under is 7-3 in his last 10 starts on 4 days rest. The under is 5-1 in the Rays last 6 games vs. a left-hande starter. The under is 17-7 in their last 24 home games vs. a lefty. The under is 21-6 in Chicago's last 26 trips to Tampa. The under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings overall between the clubs. Play the under.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145200 - 10/03/08 01:39 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
EZWINNERS
5 STAR: (966) LA ANGELS (-$128) over Boston
(Listing Santana only)(Risking $640 to win $500)
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145204 - 10/03/08 04:33 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
MR A
BYU Cougars -28
Utah State Aggies will have a difficult time containing the eighth-ranked Cougars powerful offense. Brigham Young will be in total command of Utah State, seizing their ninth straight win against them. Utah State is 1-8 in its last 9 games at home, 2-7 ATS.
Chicago White Sox (89-75) at Tampa Bay Rays (98-65)
(L) Mark Buehrle (15-12, 3.79 ERA) vs. (L) Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49)
Chicago White Sox are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings versus Tampa Bay Rays, including Friday's 6-4 defeat in Game 1 at Tropicana Field. Take the Rays at home to take a 2-0 lead in the series and fifth straight win versus the White Sox in Tampa Bay. Ray's left-hander Scott Kazmir is 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 14 starts at Tropicana Field and is 3-1 with a 3.34 ERA in five starts against the White Sox. The Rays have won four of Kazmir's last 5 starts versus the White Sox.
Tampa Bay Rays -155
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145205 - 10/03/08 04:34 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
JB'S Computer Plays
Tampa Bay Rays -150
Los Angeles Angels -130
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145206 - 10/03/08 04:34 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, October 03, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed:
5000* LATE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Kazmir -154 6:05 EST
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145207 - 10/03/08 04:35 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Eddie Roman
5000 Unit College Football Weeknight Total of the Year
Under 48 Points Cincinnati @ Marshall
I can't see this game getting above 34 points. I really can't. I mean, maybe there might be a defensive score or a special teams TD that will lead to some points but even with that, getting this game to go over in my mind will require double overtime and if that happens, there's nothing we can do.
Cincinnati is starting their third string QB in this game who just happens to be a freshman who has only thrown 4 passes in his career and completed just 1 of them. If this kid produces points, I'll be shocked. When you start a young inexperienced QB on the road, your gameplan has to be to run the ball and try to take pressure off him. That's what Cincy will do tonight, they will run the ball and that will keep the clock moving. A third string QB will not be allowed to win or lose the game. They'll max protect him to keep him standing and they'll run the ball all night long to keep from getting in long yardage situations.
As for Marshall, all they do is run the ball and Cincy does have a good rush defense so for this team to score tonight, they are gonna to have to convert in the passing game and since their starting QB completes just 50% of his passes, I don't see that happening as well.
Look for a low scoring game with the clock constantly moving with all the running these teams will be doing. Take the under here.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145208 - 10/03/08 04:37 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Damon Roberts
10,000 DIME COLLEGE FOOTBALL ODDSMAKERS ERROR
Marshall +3 over Cincinnati
3000 DIME BONUS DLS LOCKS
White Sox w/Buehrle over Rays
Angels w/Santana over Boston
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145209 - 10/03/08 04:38 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
NSA
20* Cincinnati
10* Marshall over
10* BYU
10* Rays
10* Red Sox
10* LAA under
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145210 - 10/03/08 04:40 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Mike Rose
3* CWS UNDER 8.5
3* LAA OVER 8 +100
2* CWS +148
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145211 - 10/03/08 04:42 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Northcoast
3*
Marshall
Opionion
BYU
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145212 - 10/03/08 04:43 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Wayne Root
Chairman Marshall
Millionaire LA Angels
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145213 - 10/03/08 04:43 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Gina
Boston Red Sox have lost eight of the last 9 meetings versus the Los Angeles Angels, but have been in command of the Angels in playoffs battles. The Red Sox have won 10 straight games against them in the postseason, including Wednesday's, 4-1 victory. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has struggle in the playoffs, 0-8 in its last eight games.
Go with the Red Sox with Daisuke Matsuzaka on the hill to continue their post season dominance over Los Angeles. The right-hander is 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA in 13 road starts this season and the Red Sox have won 13 of Matsuzaka's last 16 starts away from home. Los Angeles’ Ervin Santana had a great year, going 16-7 with a 3.49 ERA, but strangely the right-hander is just 5-5 with a 4.03 ERA at Angel Stadium.
Boston Red Sox +125
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145214 - 10/03/08 04:45 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
tinfw17
Member
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 1814
Loc: TX
|
|
Online
|
|
Northcoast Marquee Play
3* Marshall +3
Light Opinion
BYU -29
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145215 - 10/03/08 04:45 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Al McMoride
At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies plus the points over BYU.
At 9:30pm our selection is on the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels 'over' the total.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145216 - 10/03/08 04:46 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Bob Balfe
Rays -160 Kazmir/Buehrle
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145217 - 10/03/08 04:48 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Kelso Strugeon
5 units BYU -28.5
3 units Marshall +3.5
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145218 - 10/03/08 04:49 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
KBHOOPS
4* BYU OVER 58.5 -115
2* Utah St +28.5
2* Marshall +3.5
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145219 - 10/03/08 04:51 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ben Burns
FRIDAY NIGHT GOM
I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. Ok, we know that BYU is a very good team. The Cougars have been crushing teams (at home) lately and boast the nation's longest winning streak. However, everyone else is also aware of their success and that has caused tonight's line to become extremely high. I believe that it's too high. A closer look at BYU's schedule shows that this is just the second road game. The Cougars won their only previous road game (at Washington) but failed to cover, winning by only one point. Looking at the Cougars' last 20 road games and we find that they were never favored by greater than -16.5 points. That came at San Diego State last winter - the Cougars won by 21. I won't try and say that the Aggies are an elite team. However, I do think that they're better than they are being given credit for. This is Coach Brent Guy's fourth season at Utah State and this is his by far his most talented team yet, one which returned a whopping nine starters on defense. The Aggies also come in with some confidence, as they pounded Idaho 42-17 last time out. After that victory, Guy was quoted as saying: "The confidence of this team is sky high right now, which is exactly what we needed heading into a bye week." The bye was important as the Aggies had some nagging injuries on defense. One important and positive move for the Aggies is that they now have Diondre Borel established as the starting quarterback. Borel, who had previously been sharing time, made his first start in the last game and USU gained 580 yards of offense. It's true that BYU wants to keep running up scores. That being said, I still believe that this game means more to the Aggies. Look for them to give a huge effort and hang within the inflated number.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145220 - 10/03/08 04:53 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Doc Sports
3 Unit Play. #11 Take Cincinnati over Marshall (Friday 8:00 pm ESPN) The Thundering Herd got run over by an average West Virginia team on last Saturday and expect history to fully repeat itself this Friday with another Big East team having their way with a mid-major for sixty minutes. Marshall has not beating anyone of significance and the Bearcats only loss in 2008 has come against Oklahoma, the number one team in the land. Coach Brian Kelly continues to improve this squad and the Cats have beaten Marshall seven of 11 times (1 tie). Coach Kelly is also fared well against non-conference teams going 7-2 against the number. The Big East continues to be a must play in non-conference games and the Cats will walk out of Huntington with a convincing victory on Friday night.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145221 - 10/03/08 05:00 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
MLB | (965) BOSTON @ (966) LA ANGELS | 10/03/2008 9:30 PM
Play ON LA ANGELS using the run line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 41 Wins and 29 Losses for the last two seasons (+26.80 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB | (963) CHI WHITE SOX @ (964) TAMPA BAY | 10/03/2008 6:00 PM
Play ON TAMPA BAY using the run line in All games as a home favorite when the run line price is +135 to +160
The record is 22 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (+17.55 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB | (965) BOSTON @ (966) LA ANGELS | 10/03/2008 9:30 PM
Play ON LA ANGELS using the run line in Home games after a loss
The record is 20 Wins and 11 Losses this season (+16.10 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB | (965) BOSTON @ (966) LA ANGELS | 10/03/2008 9:30 PM
Play ON LA ANGELS using the money line in Home games after a loss
The record is 24 Wins and 7 Losses this season (+14.00 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB | (965) BOSTON @ (966) LA ANGELS | 10/03/2008 9:30 PM
Play ON LA ANGELS using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 94 Wins and 56 Losses this season (+22.95 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB | (963) CHI WHITE SOX @ (964) TAMPA BAY | 10/03/2008 6:00 PM
Play UNDER TAMPA BAY on the total in All games against left-handed starters
The record is 17 Overs and 32 Unders this season (+12.90 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB | (965) BOSTON @ (966) LA ANGELS | 10/03/2008 9:30 PM
Play UNDER BOSTON on the total in All games when playing with a day off
The record is 3 Overs and 13 Unders this season (+9.55 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB | (965) BOSTON @ (966) LA ANGELS | 10/03/2008 9:30 PM
Play UNDER LA ANGELS on the total in All games after a loss
The record is 50 Overs and 79 Unders for the last two seasons (+20.60 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB | (963) CHI WHITE SOX @ (964) TAMPA BAY | 10/03/2008 6:00 PM
Play UNDER CHI WHITE SOX on the total in Road games after a loss
The record is 13 Overs and 26 Unders this season (+11.10 units)
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145227 - 10/03/08 05:21 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Sebastian
20* BYU
50* CINCINNATI
20* BOSTON
20* RAYS OVER
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145228 - 10/03/08 05:44 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
tinfw17
Member
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 1814
Loc: TX
|
|
Online
|
|
O.C. Dooley
"2 UNIT" LATE NIGHT BASEBALL PLAYOFF TOTAL (Red Sox at Angels OVER 8 in a 9:35 eastern start on TBS-------Matsusaka versus Santana):
The opening game of this American League divisional series was no big surprise as it stayed below the posted total. Boston started the same Jon Lester who pitched a NO HITTER this campaign and the same Jon Lester who won the deciding contest of last year's World Series. The Angels starter on Wednesday was the same John Lackey who took a NO HITTER into the NINTH inning earlier this season at Boston's hallowed Fenway Park. Since game one of this divisional series stayed below the spot, tonight's total has DROPPED a half-run and I am taking advantage of the value. I am fully aware that Boston's "Dice K" posted an unscathed 9-0 record on the road this season, but the fact of the matter is that he led the entire American League with a grand total of 94 WALKS. The more free-passes he issues this evening, the more chances that the Angels will have to score runs, especially since Mike Sciosia teams are always very AGGRESSIVE on the basepaths. Like many Angel pitchers, Earvin Santana has had a solid season but his HOME ERA is up at the FOUR mark, which is a wake-up call for the Boston offense. While on the subject of Boston, they are slated to start ace Josh Beckett in game three and he was simply "lights out" in the postseason one year ago. The Angels come into tonight having lost an amazing TEN consecutive postseason games against the Red Sox where a lack of offense has been the main culprit. To make a long story short, if the Angels have any chance in this series, they must find a way to score some runs tonight because facing Beckett in game three will be a tough task. As mentioned earlier, Earvin Santana is on the mound for the Halos this evening which opens an interesting database angle. In the past three years, Santana just happens to be 18-5 OVER the total (78%) when facing a potent American League offense that averages at least 5.2 runs per game.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145229 - 10/03/08 05:49 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: tinfw17]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, October 03, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed:
SURE THING LATE INFO BASEBALL WINNER
Boston w/Matsuzaka +125 9:35 EST
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145232 - 10/03/08 05:58 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: husker24]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
|
Online
|
|
JOHNNY GUILD
BYU -28'
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145234 - 10/03/08 06:03 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
PPP
2% Cincinnati
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145235 - 10/03/08 06:08 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ok guys I am out for now..... get ready for a big weekend of Football and Playoffs....
Remember to visit the Newsletter area for all of those picks and please be an active member of the forum by posting.
Thanks !
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145237 - 10/03/08 06:17 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: FREAK]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
|
Online
|
|
THANKS ...FREAK...HAVE A GOOD EVENING..
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145238 - 10/03/08 06:33 PM
Re: 10/3
[Re: bug]
|
husker24
Forum Police
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 04/03/07
Posts: 5248
Loc: Omaha, Nebraska
|
|
Offline
|
|
Dr. Bob
Cincinnati (-3.0) 26 MARSHALL 23
05:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Oct-03 - Stats Matchup
This game is tough to call with Cincinnati playing an unknown at quarterback in either Chazz Anderson or Zach Collaros, who finished last week’s game after backup quarterback Tony Pike was injured. Notre Dame transfer Demetrious Jones apparently hasn’t learned the system well enough to start. Pike was doing a great job in replacing original starter Dustin Grutza, as Pike averaged 8.0 yards per pass play to Grutza’s 7.9 yppp, but it’s unlikely that a 3rd string quarterback can be that good. I’ve done some studies on backup quarterbacks and a third string quarterback is usually about 1 yards per pass play worse than the original starter. Cincinnati’s pass attack has been 1.3 yppp better than average this season (7.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team), so my best guess is that the Bearcats’ new starter will be about 0.3 yppp better than average. Cincy has a below average rushing attack (4.7 yprp against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team) and the Bearcats will probably be slightly worse than average overall offensively if Anderson or Collaros is your typical 3rd string quarterback. Marshall’s defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average, so the Bearcats should still move the ball at a decent clip in this game. The Thundering Herd have been decent offensively, averaged 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Bearcats have been surprisingly mediocre defensively so far this season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl) – although their defensive performance has been 0.3 yppl better than average in 2 games since their bye week. After making a normal adjustment for Cincinnati playing a 3rd string quarterback I get Cincinnati by 3 points with a total of 49 points. I recommend passing this game, as there are plenty of good bets this weekend on other games (I have 11 Best Bets and 7 Strong Opinions).
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
Moderator: husker24
| |
