#144819 - 09/28/08 12:04 PM
10/5
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
Offline
|
|
Rules of the Service Play Area
1. Do not post Newsletter Selections, please refer to the weekly newsletter topic for information.
2. Please try not to post duplicates.
3. Take part in the rest of what the forum has to offer.
4. Use this information as a guide to help you but don't make your picks solely off of one handicapper. It's your money, use it wisely.
5. The overall goal is to win $, remember bet with your head not over it.
6. If you're not a member of the site Click here to become one
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144978 - 09/29/08 10:25 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ben Burns
Better late than never! It's true. Detroit finally pulled the plug on General Manager Matt Millen's brutal and seemingly never-ending career. Millen's final record as president and CEO of the Lions was an awful 31-84. The Lions were 9-7 the year before he arrived and they were never better than 7-9 with him.
For now, Rod Marinelli remains the coach. When he was asked why he thinks he and his staff are the right people to coach the Lions, Marinelli responded: "I just know what I want. I see it. I just stay the course. I just keep working at it, keep evaluating what we're doing, how we're doing. I've been in these situations before. Like I've said, the two words - poise and panic. I believe in what I'm doing."
What Marinelli "believes in" is running the ball and controlling the clock. The Lions haven't been able to do that so far this year though, as they've fallen behind in each of their first three games. With Millen finally out of the picture and having had an extra week to prepare, I expect them to be more competitive this week though. If so, that will mean that they won't have to abandon the running game. Note that the last time the Lions faced the Bears (10/28/07) the teams combined for just 23 points. The Lions ran the ball effectively in that game (28- 119) and held the ball for more than 34 minutes.
This week, the Lions will face a Chicago defense which is usually very tough to run against. Note that the Bears limited the Eagles to six second half points in their most recent game, while scoring only three themselves. Additionally, note that Chicago has allowed an average of just 16.5 points in it's first two road games, both of which stayed below the total. Looking back to last season and we find that six of Chicago's last seven road games have produced fewer than 43 combined points.
It's true that the Lions have been poor on defense. Indeed, through the first three weeks, they had given up 113 points. Only the Rams (at 116) had given up more. That has helped cause their over/under numbers to be extremely generous though. They struggled again defensively in their most recent game. That game (vs. SF on 9/21) still finished below the total though, due largely to the fact that the number was so high. I successfully played on the 'under' in that game and I believe that this week's number is extremely generous once again.
The 'under' was 2-0 the last two seasons when the Lions were coming off a bye. The 'under' is also a profitable 11-5-1 the last 17 meetings in this series, which were played here at Detroit. Consider the UNDER
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145137 - 10/02/08 02:47 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
Online
|
|
NORTH COAST COMP TOTAL POW
WAS/PHI....UNDER 42'
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145296 - 10/04/08 11:07 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: pitt]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed:
ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH
426 Arizona -1 4:15 EST
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145372 - 10/04/08 07:14 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed:
"Private Investors Club" NFL GAME OF THE YEAR
430 Jacksonville -4 8:15 EST
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145373 - 10/04/08 07:14 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed:
5* Chargers at Dolphins: I'm not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. "Gimmicky," cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the "Wildcat" offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami 'D'. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn't have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145374 - 10/04/08 07:14 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$20.00 Guaranteed:
3* Chargers/Dolphins over: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami's offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the total.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145375 - 10/04/08 07:15 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Vernon Croy
**20 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK**
Take the Under, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are solid defensively. New England's defense has allowed just 19.3 ppg this season and 10 points in their only road game while the 49ers defense has allowed just 262.5 ypg at home this season and 18 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 games as a home dog of 3 points or less and the Patriots offense has struggled without Tom Brady this season averaging just 16.3 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 home games and their offense will not be able to get much done against the Patriots veteran defense. The O/U is 5-11 for the Patriots in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less and I look for an offensive struggle by both of these teams Sunday afternoon. Take the Under as my NFL Total of the Week and make sure you get on my NFL Smash of the Year which I have winning hands down Sunday as my 76% season run continues.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145376 - 10/04/08 07:15 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Pointwise
Phone Plays
2*
Philadelphia
Minnesota
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145377 - 10/04/08 07:15 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Asa
5* Arizona
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145378 - 10/04/08 07:49 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
WILD BILL
Titans -2 1/2 (5 units)
Chiefs +9 1/2 (5 units)
Giants -7 (5 units)
Over 43 1/2 Seattle-Giants (5 units)
Patriots -3 (5 units)
Over 44 Bengals-Cowboys (5 units)
Steelers +3 1/2 (5 units)
Saints -3 (5 units)
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145380 - 10/04/08 11:29 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: Henryjames]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
Spylock:
5* 49ers
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145381 - 10/04/08 11:30 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: Henryjames]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
Kevin Kavitch 14-9-1 ytd (3,4 & 5 star rated plays) 3-0 on 5* plays
Early release
Buffalo is the better team but I like this setup. Arizona is off a bad loss to the Jets where they fell behind big in the 1st half and couldn't catch up. Their division is wide open and they have enough offense to play hard and bounce back at home. Buffalo is playing well but they aren't special. The last 2 weeks they've been shaky, nipping Oakland late and trailing for quite awhile vs the hapless Rams. Some teams have a hard time mentally to deal with success and the way their past 2 games have gone they seem that way. Byes next week (Buffalo) can be a big red flag and sitting at 4-0 I don't see them matching Arizona's intensity in a non-conference game. One last thing. Well over 60% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo but Arizona has moved from a pick to a small favorite. Seen this movie before, smart money is on Arizona, public is on the 4-0 "red-hot" Bills. Take Arizona -1.5 for a 4* Regular Play.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145382 - 10/04/08 11:42 PM
Re: 10/5
[Re: Henryjames]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
igz1 sports
NFL
4* Indianapolis -3 (-110)
4* New England -3 (-110)
4* Chicago -3 (-115)
3* San Diego -6.5 (-110)
3* Tennessee -3 (-110)
4* Over 48 (-110) Indianapolis vs Houston
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145385 - 10/05/08 02:38 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: Henryjames]
|
tinfw17
Member
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 1814
Loc: TX
|
|
Online
|
|
Matt Fargo
GAME: New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers Oct 5, 2008 4:15PM
PICK: New England Patriots -3
REASON FOR PICK: The 2008 Patriots are far from the 2007 Patriots and this line certainly backs it up. The loss of Tom Brady has probably put an end to New England trying to get back to the Super Bowl but this is still an above average team from the AFC playing a below average team from the NFC. This line will no doubt bring a lot of public action to the Patriots and that is why the units are relatively low here. I don’t like backing the public but there are too many factors favoring New England to pass up on it.
The 49ers return home after getting beat pretty soundly in New Orleans. They were outgained 467-312 as the defense was exposed badly. Yes, a return back home is good but let’s not forget the lone home victory this season came against the lowly Lions. San Francisco is a team on the rise but rising in the NFC West is nothing to be too excited about. The 49ers have dropped their last six games against the number after allowing 30 points last time out.
The Patriots offense is far from what it was last season but with two weeks to prepare following an embarrassing loss, they could find their stride here. Against the struggling defense of San Francisco, that helps even more. The 49ers are 22nd in the NFL in total defense, allowing 335.8 ypg including 124.5 ypg on the ground which is 21st in the NFL. New England needs to establish the run to take some pressure off Matt Cassel who had a rough game against the Dolphins.
On the other side, the 49ers offense has been up and down but the offensive line remains a huge concern. New Orleans had just four sacks entering last week's game and it added six to its total. New England has just six sacks on the year, but its defensive line is good enough to penetrate this weak line. San Francisco quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan has been sacked a league-high 19 times. The 49ers will be looking to establish the run as well with Frank Gore. The Patriots are better against the run that what they showed last week.
The loss last week was a big one for New England and the line swing here is enormous. The Patriots fall into a solid situation based on that setback. Play on road teams that are coming off a loss by 14 or more points as a favorite, in weeks five through nine. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +6.9 ppg. New England bounces back on the west coast before heading home to face San Diego next week. Play New England Patriots 1.5 Units.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145389 - 10/05/08 04:03 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: tinfw17]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Dr Bob is in the newsletter area.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145390 - 10/05/08 04:05 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ron Raymond
NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET PICK
Miami Dolphins (6.5)
5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Denver Broncos Under 46.5
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145391 - 10/05/08 04:05 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Big Al McMordie
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the SF 49ers plus the points over New England. Without Tom Brady, the Patriots' vaunted offensive attack has sputtered. As evidence, consider that, at this time last year, WR Randy Moss had 22 catches for 403 yards and 5 touchdowns. But since QB Matt Cassel took over, Moss has only nine catches for 111 yards. Perhaps we should not be surprised that New England has fallen on hard times. After all, the Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Giants last year, and for the last eight years, the loser of the Super Bowl has struggled mightily the following season. I'm not one to believe in jinxes, but it's worth noting that the only Super Bowl loser to return to the Playoffs over the past 8 seasons was Seattle in 2006 (notwithstanding the face that the Seahawks posted four less wins that year). Also, dating back to 1986, .400 (or better) Super Bowl runners-up are an awful 0-18 ATS as road favorites of -4 or less (or pk) against non-division foes! Finally, .400 to .799 home dogs of +2.5 to +10.5 points are a super 39-10 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss as a favorite of more than 10 points. With New England off a 38-13 loss as a 13-point favorite vs. Miami, we'll fade the Patriots and take San Francisco on this Sunday.
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarrassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. System Game of the Month on the Cardinals.
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarrassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. Take the Cardinals
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145392 - 10/05/08 04:09 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Maddux Sports
3 units
Baltimore +3
San Francisco +3.5
Arizona -1
Green Bay Over 40.5
Pittsburgh +5.5
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145393 - 10/05/08 04:26 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Marc Lawrence
It's a battle of America's Most Wanted team (Bengals) against America's team (Cowboys) in the Big 'D' on Sunday. While Cincinnati is winless and Dallas is mad about last week's debacle at home against the Redskins, the fact of the matter NFL double-digit favorites are 0-6 ATS this season. Toss in Dallas' 0-9 ATS mark as a favorite of 7 or more points in games off a SU home favorite loss and we'll gladly garb the generous points in this overlay today. Back the Bengals here today.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145394 - 10/05/08 04:27 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Larry Ness
Both the Bucs and Broncos enter this game 3-1. The Bucs lost their first game of '08 but have since won three in a row under the leadership of Brian Griese. The Broncos won their first three but then lost last week in KC, as the Chiefs ended their 12-game losing streak. Griese was steady in his first start of '08 against Atlanta but in each of the last two weeks, he's thrown three INTs in each game. He did throw for 407 yards (67 attempts!) at Chicago but last week vs Green Bay, he was just 15-of-30 for 149 yards. The Broncos have few problems scoring this year but the team's defense ranks 30th in YPG allowed (408.8) and 29th in PPG (29.3). The pass 'D' has been terrible (276 YPG allowed with seven TDs and only one INT) and hasn't been helped by a pass rush which has accounted for only six sacks. Griese beat the Bears at Chicago in Week 3 (played for the Bears in '06 and '07) and will have similar motivation here in Denver, having begun his career with the Broncos (from 1998 through 2002 while starting 51 games). Griese's been operating without Tampa's best WR in Galloway and he's been ruled out of this game as well (foot). Antonio Bryant and Ike Hilliard have filled in well but Galloway's a huge loss. The Broncos own the NFL's top offense (435.5 YPG) and rank second in scoring (33.3 PPG). QB Cutler is over his health concerns of last year for Denver and enters this game with a completion percentage of 65.9, while averaging 318.8 YPG with nine TDs and just two INTs (98.6 QB rating). WRs Marshall has 31 catches in just three games and rookie Eddie Royal has 27 catches after four games. Denver's running game is not as prolific as in years past (121.3 YPG ranks 14th) but before the team lost four turnovers last week at KC, the Broncos had scored 41, 39 and 34 points in their first three games. The Buccaneers defense has been known for its "cover-2" scheme and making big plays. That has been the case in the early going this year, as the Bucs have 11 sacks and have forced nine turnovers during their 3-1 start. However, I just love the way Cutler is playing. The Broncos have averaged 34.0 PPG over their last five home games but their defense has been highly questionable. Griese will want to perform well back in Denver and I expect him to force things. Against a struggling defense like Denver's, that means some big plays. However, I also expect Griese to continue to make mistakes, which could lead to some easy points for the Broncos. The Broncos have gone 'over' in 13 of their last 15 home games, as well as in 20 of their last 25 games, overall. Take the over.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145395 - 10/05/08 04:27 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Jimmy The Moose
Tampa is averaging 25.2 PPG while giving up 19.5 per contest. The Broncos are averaging 33.2 PPG while the D has been pretty bad giving up 29.2 PPG. The over is 3-1 this season for the Bucs and 4-0 for the Broncos. Tampa has played over the total in 8 of their last 10 games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The over is 13-3-1 in Denver's last 17 home games. The over is a profitable 21-5-1 in the Broncos last 27 games overall. The over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. This will be a high-scoring games easily playing the over.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145396 - 10/05/08 04:27 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Tom Freese
Denver is 10-1-1 OVER off a straight up loss and they are 13-3-1 OVER their last 17 home games. The Broncos are 10-1-1 OVER after allowing over 350 yards in their last game and they are 20-7-1 OVER off an ATS loss. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER off a straight up win and they are 6-0 OVER their last 6 road games. The Buccaneers are 5-0 OVER after allowing less than 250 in their last game and they are 5-0 OVER after rushing for over 150 yards in their last game. 10* PLAY ON 'OVER'
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145403 - 10/05/08 04:31 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Carlo Campanella
Sunday Night Football features a rematch of the NFL Playoff battle between Pittsburgh at Jacksonville. Jacksonville won that meeting at home, 31-29. Pittsburgh seeks revenge from that Playoff loss, however, they won't get it as Jacksonville hosts Sunday night's battle on a 9-1 ATS record during the last ten games played in Jacksonville! The Steelers have struggled on the road this year, posting an 0-2 ATS record and only putting up 10 and 6 points in those two road battles. Points will be tough to come by once again in Jacksonville against a tough Jaguars defense, so LAY the point, as we find these Jags at 22-9 ATS at home following a Division victory in their previous game.
7* Play On Jacksonville
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145404 - 10/05/08 06:12 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
MIGHTY QUINN
Mighty missed with UNLV ( 2) and Ohio University ( 6-1/2) yesterday.
Today it's the Lions, 49ers and Cardinals. The deficit is 110 sirignanos.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145405 - 10/05/08 06:12 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: pitt]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
DR BOB
BEST BET 3* San Fran
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145406 - 10/05/08 07:57 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: pitt]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Tim Trushel
20* Detroit
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145407 - 10/05/08 07:59 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ben Burns
3-Game ULTIMATE (2 sides, 1 Total) $45.00
I'm playing on the Packers and Falcons to finish UNDER the total. Regardless of whether or not, Aaron Rodgers plays, I expect this to be a low-scoring affair. If Rodgers plays, he may not be at 100% and the Packers are likely to be a little more conservative in their play-calling in order to protect him and also due to the fact that he threw three interceptions last week. If he doesn't play, the Packers will be very inexperienced at the QB position and will be even more cautious. Either way, after a season-low in rushing yards last week, we should be able to expect a heavy dose of the run here, as the Packers look to get that part of their game going again. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons figure to have real trouble scoring against this Green Bay defense. The Packers remain excellent defensively and the Falcons have managed a mere 18 points (9 in each game) in their two road games, both of which finished with identical 24-9 scores. Including those results, the Falcons have now seen the UNDER go 14-4 their last 18 road games. Meanwhile, the UNDER is 3-0-1 the last four times the Packers were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Look for this afternoon's game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting once again.
I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. The betting public will always love Peyton Manning and the Colts while they're particularly down on the Texans at the moment. At 1-2, the Colts haven't played much better than the winless (0-3) Texans though and I believe that the "public sentiment" has given us excellent value with what will be a highly motivated home underdog. While the Colts are dealing with some key injuries (including Bob Sanders) I still believe that this is Houston team is better than it has shown. Keep in mind that the Texans were forced to play their first three games on the road due to the effects of Hurricane Ike. Last week, they traveled to Jacksonville and very nearly beat a very good Jaguars team, eventually losing by three. Note that the also lost a close one vs. Jacksonville in their last game.) Now the Texans return to Reliant Stadium where they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games and a highly profitable 8-2 SU/ATS their last 10. The Texans are 4-1 ATS their last five home meetings in this series. They had a season-high in yards last week and I look for them to earn at least the cover here.
I'm taking the points with MIAMI. I believe the situation strongly favors the home dog here. After back to back covers, the betting public is back in love with the Chargers. However, while their Monday night cover two weeks ago was reasonably impressive (that was a home game) they were very fortunate to cover in last week's win at Oakland. That game was a lot tougher than the score indicated as the Chargers were behind the entire way. Now they will be traveling across the country to play an early game (a situation which has given past Charger teams some trouble) which will also be their second of back to back road games. Note that the Chargers are just 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. While the Chargers are off a hard fought game and in a difficult travel spot, the Dolphins are coming off a bye and brimming with confidence after blowing out the Patriots prior to their break. The Dolphins are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine in this series and I look for them to give the Chargers all they can handle here, earning at least the cover.
#1 October Non-Conf. TOTAL OF THE MONTH! $40.00
I'm playing on Arizona and Buffalo to finish UNDER the total. Last week's results have helped to give us excellent value here. Buffalo rallied to beat St. Louis by a 31-14 score, sneaking over the total. Meanwhile, Arizona combined with the Jets for a whopping 91 points, suffering a 56-35 loss. Obviously, the Arizona defense will be wanting to bounce back with a significantly better effort. It should be noted that many of those points were caused by turnovers. More importantly, note that the Cardinals had only allowed an average of 15.67 points through their previous three games, showing that they are actually much stronger than the score against the Jets indicates. As for the Bills, they're allowing just 15.8 points per game. They're also limiting opponents to a 19.8% third down conversion rate, which is the best mark in the entire league. Even with last week's game (barely) finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a profitable 8-3 the last 11 times the Bills played on the road. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 19-8 the last 27 times that the Bills played a road game with a total ranging from pick'em to +3. During that same stretch, the UNDER was a highly profitable 64-38 in all Buffalo games which had a line the +3 to -3 range. The Bills played back to back road games twice last season and they averaged only 12 points in the second of those back to back games, most recently a 17-16 game vs. the Redskins. Last year's lone road game played in October saw the Bills combine with the Jets for a mere 16 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 9-2 their last 11 October road games. While the Bills will be without receiver/returner Parrish, the Cardinals may well be without star wideout Boldin. Either way, I expect a fairly heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. Note that the Cardinals average 27 running plays per game while the Bills average 29. Look for a big game from both defenses and for the final score to prove much lower than expected, finishing below the inflated number.
Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR - EARLY $50.00
I'm taking the points with DETROIT. Detroit was a dismal 31-84 record with Matt Millen calling the shots. With the Millen era finally over and having had an extra week to prepare, I fully expect the Lions to play their best game of the season. Note that the Lions were 2-0 SU/ATS after their bye week the past two seasons. Last year, they entered their bye week having been crushed by a score of 34-3. However, with the extra week to recover and prepare, they responded with a 23-16 home win over Tampa. In fact, they came out of their bye week and went 3-0 SU/ATS their next three games, outscoring those three opponents (Bucs, Bears, Broncos) by a combined score of 83-30! Those results should give them some hope and should have helped to make the extra week of practice time that much more productive. While the Lions had a much-needed week off, the Bears are coming off a hard-fought and physical Sunday night game vs. the Eagles. Prior to that, the Bears played a very hard fought overtime game vs. Tampa. Despite having a losing record overall, Detroit was actually 2-0 SU/ATS against the Bears last season. The Lions were underdogs for both those games but won by nine at Chicago and by 10 here at Detroit. Interestingly, the Bears were also coming off a hard-fought (19-16) win over the Eagles, prior to that game. Looking back further and we find that the Lions are a healthy 13-5 SU (11-6-1 ATS) their last 18 home meetings with the Bears. QB Kitna, who is expected to play, has had particular success vs. the Bears since becoming a Lion. In four games against Chicago (as a Lion) he has thrown for more than 1000 yards and has had five touchdowns without an interception. The Bears, who may be without leading receiver Brandon Lloyd, have seen three straight games come down to the wire, all of them decided by four points or less. Although they managed to upset the Colts in a game which had a total of 43, the Bears are still an ugly 4-18 SU the last 22 times that they played a road game where the total ranged between 42.5 and 45 points. The Lions know this is a huge game. A loss and the season is pretty much a complete write-off. However, with a win here, they'll be right back within striking distance in the NFC North. I'll take all the points I can get, but I look for the Lions to rise to the occasion and win this game outright.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145408 - 10/05/08 08:01 AM
Re: 10/5
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ok I am going to bed now....
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145409 - 10/05/08 09:09 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: FREAK]
|
xyz
Freshman
Registered: 03/09/08
Posts: 44
|
|
Offline
|
|
Week 5 Trends:
Trend #1: The Tennessee Titans are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. (Play Balt. +3)
Trend #2: The Miami Dolphins are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win and the SD Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. (Play Miami at +6.5)
Trends #3: The Indianapolis Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5. (Play Houston +3)
Trend #4: The Buffalo Bills are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. )Play Arizona -1)
Trend #5: The New England Patriots are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games in October. (Play SF +3)
_________________________
xyz
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145411 - 10/05/08 09:57 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: xyz]
|
salba
Sophmore
Registered: 05/26/08
Posts: 50
Loc: pa
|
|
Offline
|
|
RED ZONE SPORTS
PHILLY BIRDS BY 2 TOUCH DOWNS
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145412 - 10/05/08 10:13 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: salba]
|
amanniii
Senior
Registered: 09/08/07
Posts: 347
Loc: ohio
|
|
Offline
|
|
FOOTBALL JESUS SUNDAY EARLY PLAYS
Dolphins+7
Seahawks+7
Ravens+3
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145413 - 10/05/08 10:48 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: amanniii]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
Teddy Covers
5* Over 47 Colts
4* Jaguars -4
3* Chiefs +10.5
3* Over 45 Bears
3* Broncos -3
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145414 - 10/05/08 10:49 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: Henryjames]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
Hondo
KITTERY POINT, Maine - Hondo's investments on Chicago's Lovable Lou-sers ended in the sewer as he went down the drain with both his NLDS and World Se ries investments. Fortunately, some of the pain was eased by Mr. Aitch's Texas Tech triumph, so the earn ings were trimmed only to 580 grogans.
Today, it looks like free-money in Frisco. The bye week gave Belichick two weeks to prepare, so there's no telling how many illegal cameras he has set up in Candlestick Park. Ten units on the Pats.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145415 - 10/05/08 10:51 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: Henryjames]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
Nathan Armstrong
Highprofitsports
5* Total Of The Month Denver/tampa Under
3* Giants
3* Cardinals
3* Cinci/dallas Over
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145416 - 10/05/08 10:52 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: Henryjames]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
|
Online
|
|
NORTH COAST SPORTS
COMP PRO POW...EAGLES -6'
PRO DOG OF THE DAY....MIAMI +6'
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145417 - 10/05/08 10:53 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: bug]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
Frank Rosenthal
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 05, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
971 PHILLY-110 SB
975 RAYS+130 SB
977 ANGELS+160 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL - WEEK 5
405 COLTS-3 SB+
410 DOLPHINS+6.5 SB
415 BEARS-3 SB+
422 BRONCOS-3 -120 SB
423 PATS-3 SB
427 BENGALS+17 SB+
UNDER 45 SB
430 JAGS-4.5 SB
OVER 36 SB+
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145418 - 10/05/08 10:53 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: Henryjames]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME
ARIZONA
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145419 - 10/05/08 10:54 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: Henryjames]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
PSYCHIC
2 units Houston +3
2 units Denver -3
5 units Arizona -1.5
WISEGUY
DA STICK
5 units Kansas City +10
10 units New England -3
10 units Dallas -16
10 units Houston +3 (underdog of day)
15 units Philadelphia -6
10 unit Teaser of Week
Miami +16.5, Detroit +13.5, Arizona +8.5
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145420 - 10/05/08 10:55 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: Henryjames]
|
Henryjames
Rookie
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 525
|
|
Offline
|
|
Law Plays
2% Denver -3
2% Detroit +3 +$105
2% Arizona -1
2% Philadelphia -6
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145421 - 10/05/08 10:55 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: Henryjames]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
|
Online
|
|
DAVE COKIN
TENNESSEE -2'
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145422 - 10/05/08 10:56 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: bug]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
|
Online
|
|
LOU DIAMOND
COLTS -2'
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145423 - 10/05/08 10:57 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: bug]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
|
Online
|
|
PAUL BOVI
Ind/Hou...OVER 46
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145424 - 10/05/08 10:57 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: bug]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
|
Online
|
|
JIM FEIST
Chi/Det...OVER 44
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145425 - 10/05/08 11:01 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: bug]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
|
Online
|
|
JOHNNY GUILD....4-1 YESTERDAY
GIANTS -7
KC +9'
DENVER -3'
CINCY +16'
Edited by bug (10/05/08 11:04 AM)
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145426 - 10/05/08 11:03 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: bug]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ok I am back, tired as hell. You guys please post elsewhere, I feel like Jim Cramer and the lightning round. I am going to do rapid fire.... Show me some love just post elsewhere in the forum if you're a member, if you're not then join my community.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145427 - 10/05/08 11:05 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Kelso Sturgeon
50 Unit
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina -9.5
15 units
Jacksonville -5.5
5 units
Houston +3
3 units
Denver UNDER 47
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#145429 - 10/05/08 11:09 AM
Re: 10/5 Trends
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Brandon Lang
20 Dime - Jaguars
5 Dime 6-point teaser - Eagles and Colts/Texans Over
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
| |
