#144816 - 09/28/08 11:58 AM
Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
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FREAK
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Post em if you have them.
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#145003 - 09/30/08 06:48 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
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bug
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NORTH COAST POWER SWEEP
KEY SELECTIONS
4* MICHIGAN
3* FSU
3*TULANE
UNDER DOG POW TOLEDO
OTHERS
2*'S
DUKE
W. MICHIGAN
NOTRE DAME
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
4* TENNESSEE
3* ARIZONA
OTHERS
2*'S
GIANTS
MIAMI
Edited by bug (09/30/08 06:52 PM)
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#145005 - 09/30/08 06:59 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
[Re: bug]
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bug
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NORTH COAST
POWER PLAYS 4* POW
TCU 37-7
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#145015 - 09/30/08 09:23 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
[Re: bug]
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FREAK
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Point Wise
College Key Selections
1 OKLAHOMA STATE over Texas AM 54-20
1 TCU over San Diego State 54-10
2 Missouri over NEBRASKA 45-20
3 NEW MEXICO over Wyoming 38-7
4 ARIZONA over Washington 44-14
4 VANDERBILT (+) over Auburn 17-14
5 Texas over COLORADO 45-17
5 Nevada over IDAHO 52-17
OKLAHOMA STATE 54 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) -- Check it out. Cowboys piled
up 55 pts, 35 FDs, & 612 yds vs Troy's #12 "D", which held OhioSt to 309 yds.
Robinson, Hunter, Toston, & Co. A steamroller. Contrast that to Ags' #101 "O"
(14 FDs vs Army) & #103 run "O". 'Boys in consecutive series heartbreaks
TCU 54 - San Diego State 10 - (6:00) -- Frogs were overmatched at Okla, but
who isn't? Were +80½ pts ATS in previous 8 gms, & allow just 29 RYpg. The
Aztecs & QB Lindley (school-record 433 PYs) did their thing vs hapless Idaho,
but remember a 293-6 RY deficit in last RG (19-pt ATS loss). Romper Room!
Missouri 45 - NEBRASKA 20 - (9:00) -- Home series, & 'Huskers averaging 45
ppg in last 5 hosters. But also allowing 46 ppg in last 7 conference games, &
managed only 55 RYs in loss to VaTech. Rested Tigs at 42.4 ppg last 18 lined
gms, on 14-4 ATS run, with Daniel in off Big12 record 20 straight completions.
NEW MEXICO 38 - Wyoming 7 - (9:30) -- 'Boy woes continue. Eleven TOs last
2 wks, with 4 QBs tossing 4 INTs vs BG. Now at 10 INTs & just 6 TDs this yr.
Lobos sputtered LY, but check 297-48 RY edge vs NMexSt. WY 0-12-1 ATS!
ARIZONA 44 - Washington 14 - (7:30) -- What little hope Huskies had is now
gone with loss of Locker (thumb). No running, rank behind only SMU in "D"
column, & 0-4 start is Willingham's worst ever. Rested Wildcats have a 111-16
pt edge at home, & own nation's 6th ranked "D". Tuitama (10/2) leads this rout.
VANDERBILT 17 - Auburn 14 - (6:00) -- Tigers have had their way with 'Dores
(Wise Points), but enter off 3 wars (1-pt, 5-pt, 2-pt margins). Spectacular "D"
(9 FDs LW), but <100 RYs "O" last 2 wks. Vandy rested, & 4-0 for only 4th
time since WorldWarII. Solid overland game, & +62 pts ATS in the early going.
Texas 45 - COLORADO 17 - (7:00 - ABC) -- Steer QB McCoy 80-of-100 TY (17-
of-19 LW), with astounding 14/1. Balance, & a 28 RYpg "D" last 2 weeks. UT
has scored 59, 52, 52, 42, 52, & 52 pts in last 6 wins, & Buffs have allowed 30+
pts 7 times since LY. Buff QB Hawkins: just 47% LW, after entering at 70%.
Nevada 52 - IDAHO 17 - (5:00) -- Vandals the pits. Now -95½ pts ATS, allowing
43 ppg in last 20 outings. Made to order for 'Pack, which is in off 2nd 49-pt
effort of the year (444-54 RY edge), behind QB Kaepernick (5 TDs, 416 yds).
WEDNESDAY
BOISE STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00) -- Broncos a spectacular 19-3
ATS league HFs of <28 pts. QB Moore: 3 TDs & 386 yds in first start (upset of
powerful Oregon). Note a 227-38 RY, but Tech won't do much denting of Boise
"D". As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs have a 136-20 pt deficit in their last 3 RGs.
THURSDAY
SOUTH FLORIDA 33 - Pittsburgh 13 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Grothe has Bulls in full
mode. Check 245 RYs, 275 PYs in rout of NCSt, allowing 6, 12, 9, 13 FDs in
4 of 5 games. At 41.2 ppg last 6 HGs. Pitt RB McCoy finally over 100 RYs
(149 LW), but ranked 84th on "O" previously. Dog now 18-3 ATS in Pitt games.
Memphis 27 - UAB 22 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- What has happened to that Tiger "D"?
Allowed 45 ppg in 4 outings prior to recent 17, 10, 17 showings. Have run for
276 & 243 yds past 2 weeks (Steele: 203 LW). Blazers similar: 41 ppg "D", in
9 games before allowing only 2 TDs at SoCaro. But are now on 1-10 SU slide.
UTAH 41 - Oregon State 14 - (9:00 - VER) -- Epic Beaver upset of USC no fluke
(34:50-25:10 time edge), behind Rodgers' 186 RYs, with QB Moevao a steady
influence. But lost last RG 45-14, & will be hard pressed to keep it going vs Ute
outfit, which is averaging 36 ppg 14 of last 16. Held last 2 foes to 42 & 56 RYs.
FRIDAY
Cincinnati 31 - MARSHALL 21 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Pike for Grutza has been a joy
thus far (43-of-64 for 551 yds & 5 TDs) mainly to WR Gilyard. And a solid run
"D" for Cincy. But 'Cats needed 48-yd FG to get by Akron. On 19-7 ATS run,
& catch Herd off WVa buzzsaw, but MU allowing only 10 & 16 pts at home TY.
Byu 51 - UTAH STATE 10 - (8:00) -- Coogs a 103-0 pt edge last 2 outings, with
QB Hall now at 15/2 (10 TDs last 2). Won only other RG by just 28-27, & Ags
covered last HG by 20, in QB Borel's debut (97 RYs, 191 PYs). But not here.
SATURDAY
Boston College 31 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 13 - (12:00) -- Yes, we know
the dog is 7-1-1 in Eagle ACC games, but BC allowing only 8.7 ppg in lined tilts.
'Pack "D": >23 pts each of last 8 games, & going it without QB Wilson.
Replacement Beck: 3 INTs in 41-10 loss to SoFla. And just 26 RYs (1.0 ypr).
WEST VIRGINIA 30 - Rutgers 14 - (12:00) -- Now they're cooking. Knights piled
up 93 RYs (2.4 ypr) vs powerful MorganSt. Pathetic. And RU ranks 107th in
run "D" in lined tilts. Eleven TOs so far. As figured, Mounties bounced back off
2 losses with rout of Marshall (Devine: 125 RYs). Despite White's sore thumb.
Penn State 41 - PURDUE 20 - (12:00) -- Put it this way: Purdue has no defense
(103rd in nation). Sure Painter can throw it (359 yds vs NoDame), & Sheets
can run it (358 yds last 3), but check Lions with 1,426 RYs & 1,243 PYs thus
far, along with 6th best "D". Royster (518 RYs), Clark (9/1), et al. It continues.
MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Iowa 22 - (12:00) -- Stellar Spartan RB Ringer now at
681 yds last 3 wks, with MSt averaging 34 ppg last 7 regular season affairs.
Hawks may have lost RB Greene (head), who averaged stellar 10.0, 6.0, 6.4, &
7.6 ypr last 4 gms. Five Iowa TOs in loss to N'Western. MSt steadier of the 2.
MINNESOTA 34 - Indiana 20 - (12:00) -- More running room for Gopher's Eskridge,
than he had vs OhioSt (279-81 RY deficit). Covered in final 1:13 at Columbus,
& now +76 pts ATS last 6 outings. Hoosier "D": 42, 42 last 2 wks, but moved
it well vs decent MichSt "D", behind Thigpen's 12.6 ypr. This is a home series.
Maryland 27 - VIRGINIA 10 - (7:00) -- Another host series, but how can anyone
back the Cavs, who've been outscored 128-20 in lined affairs, along with a RY
deficit of 684-163? Six TOs vs Duke (14 in '08). Terps in off overcoming 17-6
halftime deficit in upset of Clemson, despite 100-RY deficit &11 FDs. Payback.
NORTH CAROLINA 24 - Connecticut 13 - (7:00) -- No stopping Donald Brown,
who now has 906 RYs, but UConn lost QB Lorenzen (foot) in upset of L'Ville
(508-279 yd deficit). Huskies -51 pts ATS last 5 RGs. Sexton for Yates for
Tars: 2 TD passes in final 9 minutes at Miami. Running "O" cause for concern.
MISSISSIPPI 24 - South Carolina 20 - (2:00) -- Blocked PAT provided the edge
in Reb shocker vs Fla. Snead: 85-yd pass in final 5:26, after 4 INTs vs Vandy.
Just 2 TDs for 'Cocks vs UAB's 118th rated "D", & now Spurrier has a QB
dilemma (Garcia, Smelley, or Beecher?). And SC ranks 97th in rushing. Rebs.
KANSAS STATE 45 - Texas Tech 41 - (3:30) -- Wow! Rested Raiders ran for
179 yds vs UMass, but an anomaly, to be sure. Harrell: 12/3, with Crabtree at
114 receiving yds pg. However, KSt averaging 39.3 ppg in last 9 hosters, with
Freeman now schools all-time yardage leader (6,238). Defense take a holiday.
Kansas 43 - IOWA STATE 17 - (12:30) -- Can't buck Jays, who've covered 17-3
lately, with their last 14 covers by 200 pts (just 8 & 1 TY). Reesing: 11/2: 70%.
Last 2 Cyc games decided by 1 & 1 pt ATS, with QB Arnaud coming from 3
INTs vs Iowa, to 4 TDs (2 running) vs Unlv. We buck home series trend here.
GEORGIA TECH 38 - Duke 13 - (12:00) -- Rested Jackets had 438 RYs vs fine
MissSt "D" (24-pt cover), & have 11 TAs in their 3 wins. Imps in off snapping
25-game ACC slide, beating Va, 31-3, despite a 46-yd deficit. GT keeps it up.
COLORADO STATE 34 - Unlv 31 - (2:00) -- Back-to-back OT games proved too
much for Rebs, in 49-27 pasting by Nevada, with a 390 RY deficit, altho QB
Clayton a super 12/1. Rams actually outstatted Cal, but 3 INTs, & Bear TDs on
punt return & blocked punt decided it. Rams, despite their Cal/TCU sandwich.
WESTERN MICHIGAN 24 - Ohio U 23 - (2:00) -- Four straight wins for WM, but
managed just 36 RYs LW, altho Hiller is a superb 15/3 (TDs to INTs). OU did
its thing vs VMI, but check just 4 RYs week before vs N'Western. To the wire.
NOTRE DAME 35 - Stanford 24 - (2:30 - NBC) -- Call it somewhere near LW's
Irish win. Clausen was flawless vs Purdue (275 PYs, 3/0), with Allen staking
ND to 100-RY edge. Irish have covered last 2 HGs by 35½ pts. Card Kimble
for Gerhart (concussion) LW: 157 RYs; & Pritchard in off 222-yd, 3-TD effort.
TULANE 40 - Army 10 - (3:00) -- Greenies couldn't be trusted as huge chalks in
7-pt win over SMU, after leading 31-7 at the half. Anderson: 376 RYs last 2 ,
with 3 TDs for QB Moore LW. Ten straight losses for Cadets, but check 280-
133 RY edge over A&M (Bowden: 128 yds). However Wave run "D" just fine.
Temple 22 - MIAMI-OHIO 20 - (3:30) -- Owls in every game but 1 (PennSt), with
"D" stepping up after loss of QB DeMichele, holding 136-36 RY edge over
WM. 'Hawks can't run (69.6 ypr in lined contests), & can't stop the run either.
Illinois 31 - MICHIGAN 24 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Wolves in off their biggest comeback
win ever in the Big House (19-0 deficit), but the visitor is still a 27-17 ATS play
when UM takes the field. Illini have allowed 49, 52, & 38 pts in last 3 away tilts,
but check a 971-900 yd edge over Mizzou & PennSt. Stay clean & take this.
Florida State 22 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 20 - (3:30) -- 'Noles came from 102 RYs to
259, in rout of Colorado, with Smith motoring for 154 (3 TDs). QB Ponder still
a question, but not that run "D". Remember, 7 TOs in their only loss. 'Canes
have held all 4 foes <90 RYs, but minus 76½ pts ATS in last 4 hosters. Tight.
CALIFORNIA 31 - Arizona State 21 - (3:30) -- Don't like this one a bit. Rested
Suns can't run, ranking 108th (176-4 RY deficit vs Georgia), but Carpenter is
decent 7/2. Misleading Bear rout of ColoSt (3 TDs on special teams & INT), &
Cal may have lost RB Best (elbow). Chalk 19-9 ATS in ASU tilts, so mildest.
Florida 48 - ARKANSAS 13 - (12:30) -- Bounceback time for Gators, who had
allowed only 6 ppg TY, before 31-pt explosion by OleMiss. No INTs for Tebow
so far, & 319 PYs vs the Rebs, altho run "O" at 120 ypg. Hogs have no "D"
(39.4 ppg last 8 lined games), with only TD vs Texas on 80-yd fumble recovery.
ALABAMA 27 - Kentucky 17 - (2:30) -- Super 'Tide upset of Georgia moved dog
edge in 'Bama contests to 26-13 ATS. Just 3 punts vs 'Dawgs (led 31-0 at the
half), & check 8th best run "D". 'Cats 4-0, even without Woodson, with 5th
ranked run "D". Off 3 HGs but covered 1st RG by 28½. Bit of a Tide letdown?
CENTRAL FLORIDA 38 - Smu 24 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Comedown for the Knights,
who averaged 41 ppg in 12 of 14 games LY, but just 15 ppg this yr (115th "O").
Seven TOs & a blocked punt in 58-13 loss to Utep. Ponies have worst run "O"
in nation, & can't stop anyone, but 3 Mitchell 2nd half TDs got the bacon LW.
BOWLING GREEN 45 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) -- Falcons latest team to
take advantage of Wyoming ineptness. Can't run (#96), but should repeat vs
Eastern, which has allowed 52, 39, 45, 42, 41, 51, & 37 pts in last 7 lined gms.
Navy 33 - AIR FORCE 30 - (4:00) -- Series dog rears its head again, as Mids in
off 1st win over a ranked team in 23 years! A 292-43 RY edge over Wake with
4 TAs. Falcs 10-1 ATS of late, & are 6-0 ATS at home by 54½ pts, but came
from 358 RYpg to 53, along with 9 FDs in luckout cover vs Utah. A Middie call.
UCLA 40 - Washington State 14 - (10:15) -- What a defense! Coogs now at a
213-47 pt deficit in lined games. Can't run, can't stop the run, & are minus 123
pts ATS in just 4 games. Astounding! Bruins finally got off schneid (90-10
deficit prior 2), coming from 51 RYpg to 234 vs Fresno. WSt doom continues.
TENNESSEE 34 - Northern Illinois 17 - (7:00) -- Huskies catch Vols off Florida
& Auburn, with Georgia up next. UT held Gators & Tigers to just 96 & 97 RYs,
but check QB Crompton at just 8-of-23 LW. So chance to explode, but NIU is
at 34.5 ppg, so may crack scoreboard. However, may have lost fine RB Brown.
Ball State 38 - TOLEDO 31 - (7:00) -- Cards at 5-0, despite losing WR Love.
Lewis: 4 straight 100 RY games & 10 TDs, with QB Davis at 11/3. Dedication.
Rocket effort vs Fresno took its toll in 38-pt ATS loss to FlaInt. May carry over.
Akron 33 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) -- Only way to go. Kent on 0-11 ATS run,
including minus 146½ pts ATS in last 6 games. Decent running, but no "D".
Zips in off playing solid Cincy even-up, holding 'Cats to 3.4 ypr. Lay the wood.
SO MISSISSIPPI 42 - Utep 24 - (7:00) -- How's that for snapping a 9-gm losing
streak? A 58-13 Miner rout, after entering at 39 ppg "D". And QB Vittatoe did
play (263 yds, 3 TDs). But jubilation short-lived, as rested Eagles regroup off
Marshall upset. Just 96 RYpg last 3 outings, but Fletcher & Co change all that.
Oklahoma 48 - BAYLOR 23 - (12:30) -- Sooners in TCU/Texas sandwich, & in off
just 25 RY effort. But not much overland production needed with QB Bradford
now at a brilliant 16/2 (408 PYs & 4 TDs vs Frogs). Rested Bears are vastly
improved behind QB Griffin's leadership. Check plus 37 pts ATS last 2 games.
WISCONSIN 26 - Ohio State 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Badgers in middle of Michigan,
OhioSt, PennSt stretch. Just 158, 154, & 158 RYs since opening at 404, & in
off blowing 19-pt lead. But have won last 5 HGs by combined 203-58 score.
Bucks have Wells back (106 RYs LW), & QB Pryor a true force. This is a war.
TULSA 68 - Rice 40 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Katie, bar the door! 'Canes bring #1 "O"
(>600 ypg) into this one, with QB Johnson (19/4) tossing 12 TDs last 2 weeks
(52.3 ppg in lined games TY). But Owl QB Clement threw 5 TDs in 77-20 rout
of NTx, & has teamed with Dillard for NCAA-record 41 TDs. Scoring explosion!
SO CALIFORNIA 41 - Oregon 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Regrouping time for Troy, off
shocker at OregSt (21-0 deficit, lost 27-21). A 30-yd deficit, after 626-yd edge
in first 2 outings. But Ducks shouldn't go down easily, as they're averaging 47
ppg TY, with 4th best overland game. Visiting series, with this one near spot.
FRESNO STATE 41 - Hawaii 14 - (10:00) -- Bulldogs in off 3 grinders, allowing
297 & 234 RYs last 2 wks. Balanced, behind Brandstater (8/2) & Matthews
(470 RYs). Spells trouble for 'Bows, who, amazingly, rank 102nd in scoring, &
in off losing on 47-yd FG. Hawaii has a 142-27 pt deficit in last 3 away games.
NFL Key Selections
3 New England over SAN FRANCISCO 24-13
4 DENVER over Tampa Bay 27-20
4 NY GIANTS over Seattle 33-16
5 HOUSTON(+) over Indianapolis 27-26
5 Minnesota (+) over NEW ORLEANS 23-20
New England 24 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:15) -- Had these 2 met on opening
week, the spread would have been about 10 pts higher, but things have sure
changed. Pats had their 21-game regular season streak snapped in that 37½
pt line loss in Miami. Amazing 461-216 yds deficit in that one. Cassel: an INT
& a fumble. Now on a 1-8 ATS slide. Niners down to earth LW, with just 1 TD
at NewOrleans, after 33 & 31 pt showings previous 2 wks. Gore: 212 RYs last
2 wks, & O'Sullivan a good one. But Belichick is 7-0 ATS away, off a DD SU &
ATS loss, while the Pats are 10-0 ATS vs the NFC West, & 19-6 ATS off a loss
NEW YORK GIANTS 33 - Seattle 16 - (1:00) -- Defending champs had a bye
LW, but note that they're off to their best start since 2000. Just 2 TDs in their
OT win over Cincy, but Eli is cranking it up (46-of-72 last 2) while Jacobs &
Ward are trucking it at 4.9 & 6.8 ypr. No Burress (insubordination), but should
handle the 'Hawks, who've allowed 44, 42, & 34 pts in their last 3 RGs (lost 1st
RG 34-10). The host is on a 30-13 ATS run in Seattle games, & 'Hawks are an
anemic 4-13 ATS as non-division RDs, as well as 1-9 ATS vs an opponent off
3 straight wins. And the Giants are on an 8-1 spread run. NY is the play here.
DENVER 27 - Tampa Bay 20 - (4:05) -- Brian Griese returns to Denver. He has
thrown no less than 97 passes the past 2 weeks (6 INTs), but the Bucs are on
a 3-game run, turning a 21-20 deficit with 2:30 left, vs GreenBay, into a 30-20
win. So things are going nicely for Tampa, which held the Pack to 8 FDs, &
check Graham with 334 yds thus far. The Broncos in search of a "D", allowing
29 ppg, & in off allowing 213 RYs at KC. The host is on a nice 9-2 ATS run in
Denver games, while Tampa is 5-20 ATS on the non-division road, & 1-9 ATS
HOUSTON 27 - Indianapolis 26 - (1:00) -- Texans still winless, altho it took OT
to dispose of them LW, as Schaub tossed a franchise-record 3 TD passes vs
the Jags. Before that effort, he had 5 INTs & only 1 TD pass. And prior to that
contest, Houston was on the wrong end of a 69-39 pt differential. A year ago,
the Texans averaged 28.3 ppg at home, so they can move it. Colts have yet to
run it: RY deficits of 183-53, 180-25, & 236-114 so far, with Peyton just 3/4.
Indy is 2-8-1 ATS in division play of late, as well as 1-11 ATS as a division chalk
off a SU loss vs a losing foe. The Texans? A solid 10-5 ATS as division hosts.
MONDAY
Minnesota 23 - NEW ORLEANS 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- About time for the Vikes
to right their listing ship. Four TOs in loss to Tennessee, 3 of which were turned
into TDs. Still have the scintillating Peterson (420 RYs so far), along with one of
the league's better "D"s (7th overall). The Saints have ridden the arm of Brees
once more, as he is throwing for 336 ypg, with 8 TDs, altho he has been picked
off 4 times. NewOrleans ranks 28th overland, so won't do much vs Vikes' 3rd
best run "D". The Saints are 9-17 ATS home off a SU/ATS win, 1-11 ATS home
vs an opponent off a RG, & 0-10 ATS as an Oct HF vs a foe off a SU/ATS loss.
BALTIMORE 17 - Tennessee 16 - (1:00) -- Quite a nice start for the Titans, who
are off to their first-ever 4-0 start. Not only that, but check covering those 4 by
10, 18, 14½, & 10 pts. Not too bad, considering that they entered this season,
just 15 pts from a 1-13 spread run. They have held their last 8 foes below 18
pts, & altho they were outstatted by the Vikes, 4 takeaways provided the edge.
But the Ravens, who are in off their Monday Nighter with the Steelers, have
allowed just 10 & 10 pts as hosts, & are 30-12 ATS as non-division hosts.
Titans 3-12 ATS off scoring 28+ pts, & 0-9 ATS as RFs of <3½ pts off SU win.
San Diego 33 - MIAMI 20 - (1:00) -- Wow! Dolphins didn't fool around in the
snapping of their 11-game road slide, with that 38-13 drubbing of the Patriots
(461-216 yd edge: a 37½ pt cover). Check Brown with 4 TDs, 113 RYs (6.6
ypr), with Ricky at 98 RYs. Mixing the direct snap put the Pats in a quandary.
And how about Chad with a 17-of-20 day? But still 2-20 SU, & continuing vs
this Charger outfit may be asking a bit much. Could easily be 4-0, as they're
averaging 34.5 ppg. Rivers: 10/4. SanDiego is 13-2 ATS of late, & 15-6 ATS
off a DD division win. Miami is 5-23 ATS off a win of at least 20 pts. Chargers.
CAROLINA 34 - Kansas City 17 - (1:00) -- Finally! Chiefs snapped 12-game
slide, with 33-19 pasting of the previously perfect Broncos, with Huard a nice
21-of-28, & Johnson rolling for 198 RYs (7.8 ypr). But that Denver "D" has
been mauled all year, while the Panthers have allowed only 13 ppg as hosts so
far. And remember that KC dropped its last RG, 38-14. The return of Smith
has upped the potency of this Carolina squad by leaps. If they avoid penalties
(22 last 2 games), Panthers should breeze here. They are on a 4-0-1 ATS
home run, while the Chiefs are 5-15 ATS on the NFC road. New skein begins.
PHILADELPHIA 20 - Washington 10 - (1:00) -- The 'Skins sure showed their
worth in upset of the Cowboys, with a 164-44 RY edge, along with a 36:27-
23:33 time advantage. And how about the maturation of Campbell, who is a
brilliant 66-of-97 the past 3 weeks, with 6 TDs, & no INTs. Throw in Portis,
who motored for 121 vs the Cowboys. Wash is now on a 7-2 ATS run, & has
held 13 foes below 21 pts since LY. But the Eagles could easily be 4-0, with
excruciating 4-pt losses at Dallas & Chicago. Have allowed only 6 ppg in their
last 3 HGs. 'Skins are just 3-14 ATS off pulling an upset. Brutal war to Eagles.
DETROIT 24 - Chicago 23 - (1:00) -- Lions needed LW's bye in the worst way,
as they've opened at 0-3, while allowing 37.7 ppg. As a matter of fact, they've
been stung for 36.1 ppg in their last 9 contests, & are not only on a 1-10 SU
run, but a 2-9 spread slide. Thus far, they've been outrushed, 623-227. That's
right, nearly 400 yds. And now Kitna is hurting (knee), & Millen is gone. The
Bears, on the other hand, are +75½ pts ATS in their last 7 contests. The fly in
the ointment shows that the dog is on a 6-0-1 ATS run in Chicago games. The
Lions are 32-17 ATS off a loss of 15+ pts. Hold our noses, & make a Lion call.
GREEN BAY 24 - Atlanta 9 - (1:00) -- No early line here, due to shoulder injury
to Rodgers, but he should play. He threw 3 INTs LW, after 157 passes without
a pick (3rd longest streak in franchise history). Just 8 FDs for the Pack in that
loss to the Bucs, but still a 16-7 ATS play. The Falcons? Well, they've played
2 RGs to date, losing both by the exact same 24-9 score, so why not another?
Ryan is just 34-of-72 away, & the Falcs have allowed 29 ppg in their last 11
outings. Atlanta is 16-4 ATS on the October road vs .500 or better foes, but
McCarthy is 9-2 ATS off non-division game vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.
ARIZONA 24 - Buffalo 20 - (4:15) -- Injury to Card WR Boldin puts this one into
proper perspective. Cards piled up 33 FDs in loss to the Jets, in which they
allowed 6 Favre TD passes. Six TOs (5 by Warner) more than offset 472 PYs
from Kurt. But Cards are at 31 ppg in their last 12 contests, so should be able
to give the Bills all that they can handle. Buffalo is still perfect, despite just 14
FDs & a 100-yd deficit at StLouis (25-0 2nd half edge). The Bills are a more
than profitable 18-9-1 ATS of late, but suddenly without the services of WR/KR
Parrish, a true game breaker. And the chalk is 7-1 ATS in 'Zona games lately.
DALLAS 27 - Cincinnati 19 - (4:15) -- Well, the visitor has been perfect so far, in
Cowboy games, covering all 4, by a combined 35 pts ATS. Not only that, but
their last 4 HGs have been decided by 4, 4, 4, & 2 pts SU. Check the 'Boys'
164-44 RY deficit hosting the 'Skins. The Bengals are still winless (along with
Houston, StLouis & Detroit), but in their last roadster, they covered by 10½, as
they extended the Giants into OT. Sure, they can't run (657-324 yd deficit), &
have been held below 20 pts in 7 of their last 9 games, but the dog is on a nice
11-2 ATS run in Cincy games (10 outright upsets). Very weak call for the pup.
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 16 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Not much leeway in Jag
contests, as their last 3 have been decided by just 4, 2, & 3 pts SU, with the
last 2 featuring Scobee FGs for the wins. Garrard is getting better protection
with just a single sack LW, & he has gone 39-of-54 the past couple of games.
Catching the Steelers off their Monday Nighter with Baltimore is a plus, so note
that the host is on a 14-5 ATS run in Pitt games. And note further that the
Steelers are averaging only 8 ppg on the road in the early going. Jacksonville
is 9-1 ATS as the series host, & is 28-12 ATS vs non-division opponents of late.
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#145016 - 09/30/08 09:26 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Mark Lawrence
NCAA
5* BEST BET
What in the world can Houston Nutt do for an encore? After outplaying
fearsome Florida in the Swamp and leaving Gainesville with a 31-
30 signature win (snapped a 9-game SEC losing streak), Nutt and his
rejuvenated Rebels are suddenly a ‘playuh’ in the SEC. Bear in mind with
a few lucky bounces against Wake Forest and Vanderbilt, Ole Miss could
easily be 5-0 and wearing a national ranking in addition to the 2008
‘glass slipper’. Still, we’re compelled to remind you that South Carolina’s
Steve Spurrier owns a profi table 45-22-1 SU and 45-23 ATS record on the
conference road in his college head-coaching career. The ol’ ball coach
may not have cashed the ticket in last week’s win over UAB but he finally
got to keep QB Stephen Garcia on the field for an extended period of
time and the redshirt freshman revived the moribund Gamecock offense
(completed 13-of-20 passes for 131 yards and scrambled for 86 more).
That’s good news for a team that lost SU at Columbia as 17-point favorites
in their last meeting with the Rebels. Much like the Oregon State game
on Thursday, Ole Miss falls into the ‘teams off a SU dog win of 20 or
more points’ scenario, a feeble 8-16 ATS proposition when taking on a
foe off back-to-back SU wins. Nutt appears to have his Ole Miss team on
the fast track to success but following their huge win over the Gators,
the Rebels’ feet don’t figure to hit the ground here until they go into
the locker room at halftime. The clincher is Nutt’s poor 4-15 ATS record
versus conference opponents off a SU win (0-6 if he’s off a SUATS win).
Gamecocks are 5-0 ‘ITS’ this year and will show up HUNGRY
4* BEST BET
Folks in south Florida may still despise the ground he walks on but there’s
no denying coach Nick Saban has damn near performed miracles with
the Alabama program since he arrived at Tuscaloosa in 2007. Last week’s
shocking domination of preseason No. 1 Georgia at Athens moved the
Tide up to 4th spot in the Coaches Poll – and also drove the line up on
this matchup by at least a field goal. After such a monster effort, Saban
will be hard-pressed to get his team up for a so-so Kentucky team. Bama’s
poor ATS history in today’s role doesn’t help, either. Bear’s descendants
are a woeful 0-4 ATS home off BB road games and just 3-12 ATS in Game
Six (Saban is also only 6-12-1 ATS off a SU dog win). Kentucky coach Rich
Brooks has led his Wildcats to an impressive 9-0 SU record in the first five
games of the past two seasons. UK is also 5-1 ATS away off BB homers and
5-1 ATS off a DD non-SEC win. THIS JUST IN: Since 2005, 4-0 road dogs are
11-2 ATS in Game Five. Did we mention that Bama is also a SMART BOX
3* BEST BET
Hell officially froze over last weekend in Durham, NC, when Duke
absolutely bedeviled visiting Virginia in a merciless 31-3 beating. But
even though the win elevated the Dukies’ 2008 record to a surprising
3-1, expect a rapid thaw to set in Saturday when the Blue Beelzebubs
head down I-85 to Atlanta. If you’ve yet to climb aboard the Georgia
Tech ATS train, don’t let it leave the station without you. We’ve been
Paul Johnson fans from way back and his 2-1 ATS start this season has
increased his pointspread prowess to 35-21-1 since the beginning of
2004. Even better, Johnson is 11-4 SUATS during the regular season when
playing with rest, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as chalk of more than 3
points. Our powerful database backs that up with this beauty: Game Five
teams playing their first road game off a SUATS win are only 7-17 versus
the number. Hey, Duke took this many points at home last year in a 41-24
loss and they were 25-point dogs here in a 28-point loss in 2006! Looks
like David Cutcliffe’s Devils will start a new ACC losing skein here today as
Tech males a wreck out of Duke.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
NEBRASKA over Missouri by 3
Go ahead… laugh if you want. The truth is No. 3 Missouri has beaten a
trio of 98-pound weaklings after opening the season with a diffi cult 10-
point win over Illinois. Translation: sure the Tigers are good but they’re
going to have to step WAY UP to prove it here today. The Corn Boys have
a bumper crop of good stats tucked in their silo: they’re 6-0 ATS playing
in their fourth straight at Lincoln, 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS taking on Big 12
adversaries when playing off if three in a row at home and 10-1 SU and
ATS home versus undefeated conference opponents. Whew! The big, bad
Tigers are a woeful 0-3-1 lately as double-digit road chalk and they’ve
covered just ONCE if their last fi ve tries coming off a bye week. True,
Nebraska failed its fi rst major test against Virginia Tech but the Huskers
were undone by two Hokie trademarks, special teams and defense…
not exactly Missouri’s forte. With Nebraska the subject of this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3), we can’t fade numbers like these – especially
when the series host has cashed six straight tickets. Children of the Corn
turn Memorial Stadium into a house of horrors for Mizzou today.
NFL
5* BEST BET
New England over San Fran by 15
Roll the clock back to the first week of the season and our best guess is
the line on this game would have seen the Patriots installed as doubledigit
favorites. Today, with Tom Brady on the sidelines and the Niners a
.500 squad, two touchdowns has become a field goal and suddenly this
game becomes attractive. With that we hurry off to our Bill Belichick
databank and find numbers that support our contention. For openers,
Mr. Personality is 22-9 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road in
games off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine and 7-0 ATS as a
favorite of less than 7 points. To top it off he’s squared off against teams
from the NFC West Division 13 times and – you guessed it – he’s 13-0 ATS
in those games. Toss in Frisco’s 1-10 ATS mark as a dog off a non-division
game when facing an AFC opponent and you can see why we’re taking a
patriotic approach to this game.
4* BEST BET
Philadelphia over Washington by 16
Life has been pretty much black and white at home (2-0 SU and ATS) and
on the road (0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS) for the Eagles in 2008. More important,
from a handicapping perspective, the Green Birds have been perfect, 4-
0, In The Stats this season. They will apply that notion against a fat-andhappy
bunch of Hogs, fresh off last Sunday’s underdog win as doubledigit
dogs at Dallas. That fi ts like a Michael Jackson glove given the fact
the Skins are 0-5-1 ATS on the road off a Cowboy win while Philly is
10-3-1 ATS in division games off an ATS loss of 7 or more points behind
Andy Reid. Andy is also dandy in games off a SU favorite loss, going 17-8
SU and ATS. Just like Los Lobos, he sees a red door and wants to paint
it black
3* BEST BET
Detroit over Chicago by 7
It’s been said that the best sex a man can have is right after his favorite
football team wins a game. If that’s the case then the Motor City’s been
celibate this season. With Matt Millen no longer guarding the condoms
this may actually be a breakout game for the Lions. It happens much
more often than not to winless teams after a Bye Week. The fact of the
matter is 0-3 or worse division dogs playing with an extra wink are 7-7 SU
and 11-1-1 ATS. Additionally, the Lions are 7-5 SU and 12-0 ATS as division
home dogs against an opponent that allowed 20 or more points in its last
contest. With Lovie Smith 1-8-1 ATS in games off a win against a foe off
back-to-back losses, it’s time to break out the Trojans. The Lions and the
men from Motown are looking to make a score today!
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#145017 - 09/30/08 09:28 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
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CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *MINNESOTA over Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 40 - Indiana 21
CKO scouts expect Minnesota HC Tim Brewster to rally his club off Ohio State loss for what is a crucial game in
Minny’s quest for bowl eligibility. Gophers have ample weapons to lay open a banged-up Indiana “D”, which has
suffered injuries to three 2ndary starters and its nickel back and has yielded 960 total yards & 84 pts. in last 2
games vs. Ball St. & Michigan State. Minny QB Adam Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in passing and is more efficient
this season, with an 8-2 TD-int. ratio (was 24-19 LY). WR Eric Decker not only leads the Big Ten in receptions,
but o.c. Mike Dunbar is using him as a runner as well (8 carries, 77 YR last 4 games). Running game hasn’t fallen
off much after injury to Duane Bennett, as true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (90 ypg rushing & 5 TDs last 3 games).
Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who was shaken up last week, has seen his passing production take a nosedive this
season from 234 ypg LY to 162 in ‘08. Obviously, he misses departed WRs James Hardy & James Bailey, while
new lead receiver Ray Fisher has just 4 catches this season.
10 *KANSAS STATE over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 34 - Texas Tech 31
Long-time Big XII scouts report oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to offensively-flashy Texas Tech
(leads nation in passing), which has feasted on “cupcakes” and defensively-inept teams so far in ‘08. With
KSU’s demanding HC Prince reportedly spending extra time on tackling fundamentals and techniques after too
many misses the past two weeks, doubt Red Raider QB Harrell and mates maintain those eye-popping numbers
in hostile Manhattan. Meanwhile, Wildcats 6-6, 260 dual-threat QB Freeman (67%, 11 TDs, 2 ints., hasn’t been
sacked yet) should fully exploit a still-vulnerable TT defense that yielded 490 yds. vs. Nevada. With Wildcats
ground attack suddenly having much more pop with converted 6-3, 215 soph WR Lamark Brown rumbling for 137
yds. in his debut week ago, Prince’s rising squad capable of minor upset. Red Raiders a woeful 1-7 as 7-pt. or
fewer road favorite since ‘03.
10 STANFORD over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
STANFORD 23 - *Notre Dame 20
The pointspread is rising on this game after Notre Dame pulled away from inconsistent Purdue last week. But
Pac-10 scouts report things are finally starting to “slow down” for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard, who rallied the
Cardinal in the second half two weeks ago for a 23-10 victory over stubborn San Jose and the threw three TD
passes in last week’s 35-28 road triumph at desperate Washington. Stanford power back Toby Gerhart (check
status) suffered a mild concussion in that game. But sr. Anthony Kimble is the former starter at the same spot!
And, with eight srs. on a defense that returned nearly intact from LY, you can be sure it won’t lose its poise at
South Bend. The Cardinal has already taken on Oregon State, Arizona State, and TCU—all likely 2008 bowl
teams. And you can be sure HC Jim Harbaugh (the former Michigan QB) will have the visitor properly motivated.
10 *WISCONSIN over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 27 - Ohio State 19
Wisconsin is coming off a distasteful loss at Michigan, in which the Badgers gave up an uncharacteristic four
turnovers and blew a 19-0 lead. Intense Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema will have his team ready to “man up” against
Ohio State this week, and he won’t let the Badgers forget that they led the Buckeyes 17-10 late in the third quarter
before yielding four TDs in the last 18 minutes in ‘07. Wisconsin has been a powerful play in Madison, notching
27-1 SU & 17-9 spread marks the last 4+ seasons (and the Badgers are 6-2 vs. the number following their last
8 losses). Ohio State QB Pryor has added something to the Buckeye attack, but this is a hostile environment for
a youngster. OSU defense not bringing the same type of pressure it has in past, and Buckeyes might look more
like they did in trip to USC than they did in 1st 3 Qs vs. Minny.
10 *PHILADELPHIA over Washington
Late Score Forecast:
*PHILADELPHIA 27 - Washington 13
(Sunday, October 5)
Respect progress made by Washington HC Jim Zorn in installing his offense and adapting QB Jason Campblell to
his system. However, in the yin and yang that is the NFL, prefer taking Philly coming off a disappointing loss in
Chicago over a Redskin bunch that might find it difficult to duplicate emotional peak it achieved in impressive win
in Dallas. The Eagles did a number on Pittsburgh at Lincoln Financial Field, and RB Brian Westbrook could be back
in action after sitting out the Bear game with an ankle injury. Philly QB McNabb hit nine different receivers in
Chicago, and the Washington defense ranks 22nd against the pass and has just 6 sacks this season.
TOTALS: OVER (43½) in the Seattle-N.Y. Giants game—New York has generated 67 points in last two games, and Seattle has gone “over” in all three of
its games due to a leaky defense and a balanced attack...OVER (47) in the Minnesota-New Orleans game—Prolific N.O., which is scoring 28 ppg & yielding
5.2 ypc, is “over” 3-0-1 TY and 16-6-1 last 23 since late ’06. Minny “over” in both road games this year, and Adrian Peterson should have some fun.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
MARSHALL (+3½) vs. Cincinnati (Friday night)—Cincy QB injuries and what figures to be a wild home crowd
pulling for Thundering Herd in an ESPN extravaganza reasons enough to take a flyer with Marshall...
COLORADO STATE (-2) vs. Nevada-Las Vegas—The real UNLV defense showed up against Nevada and allowed 444 yards on the ground. CSU 5th-yr. sr. RB Gartrell Johnson is looking for a career high...
AKRON (-3½) at Kent State—Kent State is 0-11 in last 11 games on the line, and leading RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two games with an
ankle injury. Akron is 6-1-1 vs. the number last 8, and QB Jacquemain throws for 200 yds. or more every time out...
UTEP (+8) at Southern Miss—UTEP QBVittatoe looked sharp vs. Central Florida, and the aggressive Miner defense has made some big plays the last two games. USM defense yielding an uncharacteristically high 27 ppg and ranks 110th vs. the run...
JACKSONVILLE (estimated line: -3) vs. Pittsburgh—Jaguars have had the Steelers number,
winning last four meetings, and Pittsburgh coming off important Monday night AFC North clash against Baltimore.
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#145087 - 10/01/08 07:55 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
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THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game
OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 - Tampa Bay 26—Denver’s Achilles’
Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest
to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.’s chop-busting Earnest
Graham can’t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,
with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his
3 picks nearly undid T.B.’s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay
Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and
doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ‘em) that undermined attack at
Arrowhead. “Totals” alert—Broncos “over” 13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last
25 overall since late “06; T.B. “over” 8-2 last 10.
(04-Denver -3 16-13...SR: Denver 4-2)
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13—Bill Belichick’s defense led
the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz’
Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,
Belichick’s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,
79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extrahard-
hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then,
while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film
study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the
spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O’Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More
of the same this week.
(04-NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-7...SR: San Francisco 7-3)
ARIZONA 30 - Buffalo 13—After spending two the last two weeks on
the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the
tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR
Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on
home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via
Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner’s arm is
well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona
last week. (04-BUFFALO -3' 38-14...SR: Buffalo 5-3)
Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 23—First home game for 0-3 Houston, thanks
to Hurricane Ike, which not only damaged the roof of Reliant Stadium, but also
the homes of several Texan players. Indy’s divisional home loss two weeks ago
vs. Jacksonville makes us lean to Colts for the victory, even with Indy’s depleted
defense (especially without SS Bob Sanders). Houston will be a hard-fighting,
homesick host. But Texans finding ways to lose, and New Orleans—albeit in a
more severe situation—never could shake the Katrina distractions in 2005.
Houston 16-7-1 “over” last 24.
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(07-Indianapolis -6' 30-24, INDIANAPOLIS -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 11-1)
BALTIMORE 16 - Tennessee 15—Kerry Collins still has occasional
nightmares about the Baltimore defense, which intercepted him four times
when Collins was with the Giants for a 34-7 Raven victory in Super Bowl XXXV.
Collins might have a touch of déjà vu, as Baltimore’s zone blitzers collected 7
sacks and 5 takeaways in allowing only 20 total points vs. Cincy & Cleveland in
Ravens’ first two home games. With 4-0 Tennessee lacking premier WRs,
Baltimore’s zone blitzers will be after Collins if they are able to keep RBs C. Johnson
& L. White under control. Will Flacco remain unflappable vs. Titan defense (8
ints.)? Balt. FB Le’Ron McClain a revelation with 152 YR first two games.
(06-Baltimore -7 27-26...SR: Baltimore 9-8)
San Diego 23 - MIAMI 20—You can be sure Miami will add a few wrinkles to
its “Wildcat” formation after six plays at New England produced four TDs in the
Dolphins’ 38-13 upset (Miami QB coach David Lee was o.c. LY at Arkansas).
Fortunately for S.D., starting LB Stephen Cooper (Chargers’ top tackler LY)
returns to action this week. However, QB Philip Rivers (sacked four times by
Raiders last week) absorbing more punishment than LY. Chad Pennington
(64%) a steadying influence on Dolphin offense.
(05-Miami +13 23-21...SR: Miami 13-12)
CAROLINA 27 - Kansas City 10—Herm Edwards is still rather limited in his
offensive options, as K.C.’s best alternative is to bang away with Larry Johnson
and hope for error-free work from vet QB Damon Huard (which Huard provided
vs. Denver...and which Tyler Thigpen could not). But doubt L.J. can puncture
the stout Carolina defensive interior as he did the less-assertive Broncos with
198 YR. It’s looking like the 2003 Super Bowl year in Charlotte, with old WR
buddies Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith reunited (14 combined recs., 2 TDs
last week), providing familiar targets for re-energized Jake Delhomme.
(04-Carolina +6' 28-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Washington 13—Jim Zorn having fine success tutoring
potential-laden young QB Jason Campbell (66%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) and inspiring
hard-driving runs by Clinton Portis (369 YR). But coping with the Philly pass
rush (17 sacks TY) can be tough (just ask Ben Roethliesberger). Status of Brian
Westbrook (knee) unclear, but Correll Buckhalter a serviceable sub, and rookie
WR DeSean Jackson has enlivened Eagle aerial game.
(07-Was. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(07-Phil. 33-WAS. 25...W.25-22 W.36/158 P.28/139 P.20/28/0/240 W.23/34/0/203 P.2 W.2)
(07-Washington +6' 20-12, Philadelphia +2' 33-25...SR: Washington 76-65-5)
DETROIT 23 - Chicago 20—Oh, Happy Day! That’s the tune Lions’ fans
were singing last week when lucratively-paid GM Matt Millen was fired after
Detroit was 31-84 during his tenure. The question is whether such a move will
be a positive on the field for an 0-3 team that has been outgained by more than
100 yards in each game, out-rushed 623-227 overall, out-sacked 12-3, and
outscored 63-20 in the first half. Lions could hardly be worse. However, this is
the NFL, and let’s remember Detroit swept the Bears LY, has potent weapons
at WR, and is virtually in a must-win situation to join the NFC North race.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 87-64-5)
GREEN BAY 17 - Atlanta 16—Things keep repeating for Atlanta, which has
beaten two troubled teams (Detroit & Kansas City) in similar fashion and lost by
exact 24-9 scores at both Tampa Bay & Carolina. Catching angry Green Bay at
Lambeau after The Pack dropped a pair would appear to put this contest more
in the Bucs-Panthers category for Falcs. But not so fast, as G.B. might have to
go with rookies Matt Flynn and/or Jeff Brohm at QB if Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder
injury is serious. If that’s the case, Atlanta can hang around, especially with HC
Mike Smith having rookie Matt Ryan throw mostly short and safe while Michael
Turner (422 YR) keeps the clock and chains moving.
(05-Green Bay +9 33-25...SR: Green Bay 13-11)
NY GIANTS 33 - Seattle 17—Bye week came at a nice time for Seattle, which
is getting a bit healthier on offense and fortified depleted WR crew with recent
additions of vets Keary Colbert & Koren Robinson. But Seahawks likely to catch
a focused N.Y. team after uncharacteristic flat effort that nearly cost G-Men in
last outing vs. Cincy, not to mention N.Y.’s chance to stay ahead of Dallas in
ultra-tough NFC East. D.c. Steve Spagnuolo’s sack-happy Giant defense has
a rather stationary target in Matt Hasselbeck. N.Y. has covered 10 of last 12
overall. Totals note—Both teams trending “over” lately (Giants “over” 7-3 at
Meadowlands; Seattle “over” 20-7-1 last 28 as visitor).
(06-SEATTLE -3' 42-30...SR: NY Giants 7-5)
DALLAS 30 - Cincinnati 13—Carson Palmer’s elbow expected to be okay.
Even so, it’s hard to count on the poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only
13 ppg vs. the improved Cowboy defense. Dallas underestimated Washington
last week. But another T.O. tirade is indicative that a similar occurrence unlikely
this week. Huge rush edge owned by RBs MB III and Felix Jones should make
play-action easy for Tony Romo and get winless Bengals to playing from behind
early. (04-CINCINNATI +1 26-3...SR: Dallas 5-4)
*JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 13—Jags have won last four meetings,
including LY’s controversial playoff victory in Pittsburgh. And, while
Jacksonville has plugged the early holes in its OL, the Jags now catch the
Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a sore shoulder, RB Willie Parker on
the shelf, and two starters out on Pittsburgh DL. Moreover, the Steeler OL was
overwhelmed in its last road game, giving up nine sacks in a 15-6 loss at Philly.
The healthier, more nimble David Garrard (7 for 41 rushing last week) could be
the difference. TV—NBC
(07-Jack. 29-PITT 22...J.25-13 J.42/225 P.17/111 J.17/33/1/197 P.16/33/0/106 J.0 P.0)
(07-Jack. 31-PITT 29...P.24-14 J.29/135 P.26/43 P.29/42/3/297 J.9/21/2/104 J.0 P.1)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 29-22, Jacksonville -2' 31-29 (Playoffs)...SR: Jacksonville 12-8)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24—CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over” 17 of last 23. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)
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#145088 - 10/01/08 08:00 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
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THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE by 19 over Iowa
CONNECTICUT by 3 over North Carolina
VANDERBILT by 5 over Auburn
ALABAMA by 28 over Kentucky
MICHIGAN STATE 36 - Iowa 17—MSU’s RB Ringer has 681 YR in his
last 3 games and leads the nation in scoring. Meanwhile QB Brian Hoyer
showed improved form at Indiana, throwing for 261 yds. & 2 TDs with no
interceptions. Iowa’s 5-TO performance against Northwestern shows Hawkeye
offense still has problems. QB Ricky Stanzi has 3 ints., just 1 TDP in last 54
passes, and a late-game head injury to star RB Greene clouds the offensive
picture. Iowa on 9-19-1 spread run. TV-ESPN2
(07-IOWA 34-Mich. St. 27 (OT)...M.23-13 I.44/230 M.52/160 M.25/44/0/308 I.5/15/0/53 I.0 M.1)
(07-IOWA +3 34-27 (OT)...SR: Iowa 20-17-2
*Connecticut 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 24—Both teams off uplifting
come-from-behind road wins led by reserve QBs. UConn soph QB Frazer
(Notre Dame transfer) has nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald Brown (906 YR & 11
TDs), a physical OL featuring two 5th-yr. seniors and a more veteran defense that’s
allowed just 14 ppg. Favor undefeated Huskies energized by confident HC Edsall.
TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: N. Carolina 1-0)
*VANDERBILT 22 - Auburn 17—Since Auburn QB Todd (last in SEC
in pass efficiency) struggling in new spread attack (Tigers last in 3rd-down
conversions), willing to “take” with rested, confident Vandy, led by versatile QB
Nickson, who is expected to welcome back previously-injured WR G. Smith (top
returning pass catcher). Doubt Todd or backup Burns will suddenly shine vs.
aggressive, mistake-creating ‘Dore defense (11 sacks; 10 ints.), spearheaded by
marvelous, 2-way performer D. J. Moore (37 YR vs. Rice). TV-ESPN
(07-AUB. 35-Vandy 7...A.19-17 A.39/239 V.38/133 A.14/18/1/165 V.12/31/1/88 A.0 V.0)
(07-AUBURN -7' 35-7...SR: Auburn 20-19-1)
ALABAMA 38 - Kentucky 10—Now that highly-ranked Bama is in the
thick of national title hunt, believe mastermind Saban (unhappy with “lack of
intensity” in 3rd Q vs. Georgia) can prevent major letdown with fast-starting Tide
(outscoring foes 74-0 in 1st Q). Bama owns huge QB edge with polished J.P.
Wilson (63%, 6 TDs, 1 int.), whose ground assault (215 ypg, 13 TDs) will wear
down Kentucky defense. Tide’s stifling run defense has yielded only 1 rush TD
in last 24 Qs! TV—CBS
(DNP...SR: Alabama 33-2-1)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2
*SOUTH FLORIDA 26 - Pittsburgh 17—Bulls a solid investment at Tampa
recently, covering 8 of their last 11 as host. And resourceful USF jr. QB Grothe
rates MAJOR edge over limited Pitt counterpart Stull (only 2 TDP TY). Veteran
Panther stoppers no pushovers, however, holding 9 of last 10 foes to fewer than 28
points. Visitor should hang inside roomy spread behind rushing of star soph RB
McCoy. TV-ESPN
(07-S. Fla. 48-PITT 37...P.20-18 S.44/193 P.34/95 P.24/38/3/298 S.17/23/0/159 S.2 P.0)
(07-Usf -10 48-37 06-USF +4' 22-12 05-PITT -1' 31-17...SR: South Florida 3-2)
*Memphis 34 - UAB 24—Blazers’ versatile jr. QB Webb possesses a few
weapons, especially with speedy soph WR/return man Forrest expected back
after sitting out last week. Too bad UAB defense (466 ypg) can’t hold up its end.
Tigers’ deep cast of rangy WRs and emerging juco RB Steele (203 YR in win
over Ark. St.) will eventually overwhelm hapless host (only 4 covers last 15 at
mostly-empty Legion Field).
(07-MEMPHIS 25-Uab 9...M.25-23 M.43/265 U.30/105 M.14/28/0/298 U.25/39/2/233 M.0 U.0)
(07-MEMPHIS -11 25-9 06-UAB -5' 35-29 05-Uab +2' 37-20...SR: UAB 7-3)
*UTAH 31 - Oregon State 16—Dr. Phil is probably jumping up and down at
the dynamics associated with this “psychology play” deluxe, as OSU off
emotional mega-upset of top-ranked SC, while Utah chomping at the bit in
revenge mode after LY’s opening-game loss at Corvallis when QB B. Johnson
& RB Asiata were both KO’d. Stout Ute rush “D” well-equipped to slow betweenthe-
tackles runs by frosh RB “Quizz” Rodgers that befuddled Trojans, and
more-refined components on Utah attack capable of extending margin.
(07-ORE. ST. 24-Utah 7...O.18-12 O.44/241 U.30/18 U.17/37/0/178 O.12/30/2/129 O.0 U.0)
(07-OREGON STATE -6' 24-7...SR: Oregon State 9-4-1)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3
*MARSHALL 20 - Cincinnati 16—Bearcats down to their 3rd-string QB (see
Special Ticker). Clever Cincy mentor Kelly, who’s covered 66% of his games
as a head coach since ‘05, still owns superior defensive depth & speed in thismatchup. Can maturing Marshall RS frosh QB Cann find enough openings in
Bearcats’ leaky pass coverage to lead Herd to its sixth straight victory at
Huntington? TV—ESPN
(07-CINCY 40-Mar. 14...C.22-19 C.39/217 M.35/80 M.21/32/1/257 C.20/27/0/219 C.0 M.1)
(07-CINCINNATI -24 40-14...SR: Cincinnati 7-3-1)
*Byu 48 - UTAH STATE 13—WAC sources insist USU not as helpless as
recent editions, especially with unheralded QB Borel adding some spark to new
option looks in Aggie attack. But high-flying BYU in no mood to cut any slack
to lower-profile state rival, and BCS-dreamin’ Cougs might want to match the
damage done by mortal enemy Utah, which won big at Logan (58-10) a few
weeks ago.
(06-BYU -27 38-0...SR: BYU 41-33-3)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
Boston College 20 - NORTH CAROLINA ST. 17—With veteran HC O’Brien
saying he’s never seen a situation similar to the extensive list of injuries
currently plaguing his Wolfpack, any investment in N.C. State a dicey
proposition. Just not that eager to lay substantial points on road with BC side
struggling to find an offensive identity with new sr. QB Crane (5 ints., just 2 TDP)
at trigger of attack.
(07-BOS. COL. 37-Ncs 17...N.21-19 B.39/231 N.24/56 N.29/54/5/351 B.15/34/1/142 B.0 N.2)
(07-BC -13' 37-17 06-NCS +6' 17-15 05-BC -4' 30-10...SR: Boston College 3-2)
WEST VIRGINIA 28 - Rutgers 20—Check status of Mountaineer star QB Pat
White (thumb injury, but expected to be available at TGS press time Sunday
night). Even if White good to go, prefer to take points with Rutgers. Substantial
edge owned by Scarlet Knights’ WRs, and emergence of thumping RS frosh RB
Brooks (5 TDs & 199 YR in last 2 games) giving strong-armed sr. QB Teel more
time to find targets.
(07-W. Va. 31-RUT. 3...R.20-15 W.47/254 R.40/183 W.10/16/0/144 R.15/31/2/131 W.0 R.2)
(07-Wva -6' 31-3 06-WVA -10' 41-39 (OT) 05-Wva -3' 27-14...SR: West Virginia 29-4-2)
Penn State 37 - PURDUE 21—Definite defensive edges to undefeated Penn
State despite Nittany Lions’ slippage last week in yielding 24 points & 4.5 ypc
at home vs. Illinois, even with return of suspended DE Evans & DT Kuroma.
However, Purdue has far more defensive questions, as the Boilermakers rank
107th in total defense. Purdue QB Painter will move the ball, especially if PS S
Scirrotto can’t go, but Penn State has too many weapons to ask Boilers to trade
TDs for more than a half. TV—ESPN
(07-PSU 26-Pur 19...Pn.29-22 Pn.41/251 Pr.23/68 Pr.27/48/0/255 Pn.22/36/0/210 Pn.1 Pr.1)
(07-PSU -7' 26-19 06-Psu -3 12-0 05-PSU -15 33-15...SR: Penn State 8-3-1)
MINNESOTA 37 - Indiana 24—Minny got a backdoor cover at Ohio State,
scoring twice after trailing 34-6 with less than 9 minutes to play. However,
Gophers improved enough to bounce back against Indiana defense that’s
yielded 84 points & 960 yds. in last 2 games and has yet to cover TY. Will lay
reasonable number against Hoosier side making first road trip of the season (IU
0-4 SU & vs. number last 4 on the road LY).
(07-IND. 40-Minn. 20...I.22-20 I.42/228 M.29/112 M.24/44/2/280 I.24/36/1/235 I.0 M.0)
(07-IND. -13 40-20 06-MINN. -6 63-26 05-Minn. -12' 42-21...SR: Minnesota 36-26-3)
*Maryland 33 - VIRGINIA 13—Despite Terrapins’ recent surge, very
uncomfortable laying big points on road with Maryland squad that tends to play
to level of competition. Absolutely no interest in Virginia side, however, as Cavs
(just 9 ppg first 4) plumbing depths offensively while showing little spine on
defense. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Va. 18-MARY. 17...V.25-16 V.39/191 M.38/130 V.23/36/0/248 M.13/19/0/103 V.0 M.0)
(07-Va. +4 18-17 06-Mary. -3' 28-26 05-MARY. +3' 45-33...SR: Maryland 41-29-2)
MISSISSIPPI 20 - South Carolina 19—Sure, Houston Nutt got a signature
win at Ole Miss (1st victory over Top 5 squad since 1977!) faster than expected
with stunning 31-30 upset at Florida. But still interested in grabbing higher price
with defensively-stout USC (just 13 ppg, SEC-best 221 ypg), 7-2-1 as away
underdog under the Spurrier. ‘Cocks prized, good-scrambling RS frosh Garcia
(accounted for 217 yds. vs. UAB) & emerging corps of WRs able to burn Ole
Miss’ inviting red zone defense (15 scores in 16 chances; last in SEC). Rebels’
QB Snead has 8 TDP, 8 ints. (DNP...SR: Mississippi 8-5)
Texas Tech 31 - KANSAS STATE 30—TT program still ahead of K-State’s,
but Wildcats’ jumbo QB Josh Freeman (11 TDs, 2 ints.) giving all the signs he’s
ready to trade points with the Red Raiders. Sr. WR Deon Murphy, 5-7 juco
smurf Brandon Banks, and 6-6 TE Jeron Mastrud provide ample targets for
Freeman to duel TT QB Graham Harrell, while HC Prince’s STs always a threat.
REG TV—ABC (05-TX TECH -14' 59-20...SR: Tx Tech 6-3)
Kansas 34 - IOWA STATE 14—With KU supremely rested (played Sam
Houston State followed by bye week) for its Big XII opener, will side with
accurate QB Reesing (70.4%, 11 TDs, only 2 ints.) and veteran Jayhawk
defense over promising but still developing ISU QB Austen (65%, 4 TDs, 2 ints.).
Must be midful, however, of ISU’s 4-1 mark last 5 as home dog.
(07-KANSAS 45-Iowa St. 7...K.31-16 K.37/212 I.26/52 K.30/35/0/354 I.24/43/1/182 K.0 I.0)
(07-KANSAS -26 45-7 06-Kansas -1 41-10 05-KANSAS +3 24-21 (OT)...SR: Kansas 47-34-6)
GEORGIA TECH 30 - Duke 23—Go-with vs. go-with? Tech certainly
qualifies now that pointspread dynamo Paul Johnson (3-0 against line TY; 40-
23-1 his last 5+ seasons at Navy) has taken helm in Atlanta. But insiders insist
downtrodden Duke’s early-season uptick no fluke, and can-do new HC
Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils brimming with confidence after snapping 25-game ACC
losing streak last week. Poised QB Lewis (28 TDP last 1+ seasons) will keep
visitor close. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Ga. Tech 41-DUKE 24...G.21-9 G.52/259 D.28/24 G.11/25/1/218 D.12/29/0/122 G.1 D.1)
(07-Tech -13' 41-24 06-TECH -25 49-21 05-Tech -20' 35-10...SR: Georgia Tech 44-30-1)
COLORADO STATE 31 - Unlv 26—Will it be deja’ vu for UNLV? Sequence
of events eerily similar to Mike Sanford’s previous three seasons in charge,
when Rebs enjoyed similar quick breaks from gate before things went spinning
out of control after bitter loss to hated rival Nevada...which just whipped UNLV
again last week, exposing leaks fore and aft on Rebel stop unit. MWC scouts
report CSU better than advertised, so doubt Rams done in again by fluky nature of
last week’s loss at Cal (Bears scored 3 TDs via defense and STs!).
(07-Colo. St. 48-UNLV 23...U.26-21 C.49/279 U.38/222 U.25/39/3/337 C.13/19/0/218 C.1 U.2)
(07-Csu +2' 48-23 06-CSU -17 28-7 05-Csu -15 31-27...SR: Colorado State 11-4-1)
WESTERN MICHIGAN 25 - Ohio 24—Prefer underdog Ohio U. and
emerging QB Boo Jackson, who has thrown for 880 yards and 6 TDs in last 3
games. Bobcats are 16-5-1 vs. the number last 22 on the line, and experienced
Ohio HC Frank Solich will certainly try to use Temple’s defensive gameplan as
a blueprint to slow prolific Bronco QB Hiller (held to 1 TDP for 1st time this
season) & RB West (just 35 YR vs. Owls).
(06-OHIO +4 27-20...SR: Western Michigan 29-28-1)
Stanford 27 - NOTRE DAME 24—Although Stanford would gladly welcome
availability of slamming RB Gerhart (left last week’s game at U-Dub with
concussion), relief performance of sr. caddy Kimble (career-best 157 YR vs.
Huskies) indicates Jim Harbaugh indeed has some rabbits to pull out of his hat.
And though ND QB Clausen off career game (275 YP) vs. Purdue, he’s been
more apt to self-destruct than Stanford counterpart Pritchard, whose vet OL
now providing pristine protection. TV—NBC
(07-N. Dame 21-STAN. 14...N.19-18 S.44/175 N.38/117 N.19/32/1/196 S.15/33/2/152 N.3 S.0)
(07-Und +4' 21-14 06-UND -29' 31-10 05-Und -15' 38-31...SR: Notre Dame 16-6)
TULANE 30 - Army 14—Green Wave has permitted just 69 ypg rushing in
first 4 games, and hungry Tulane should ride its defensive edge to 3rd straight
victory. However, winless Army might hang around now that Black Knights
found competent triggerman (soph QB Bowden had 128 YR last week) for backto-
the-future switch to triple-option attack.
(07-ARMY 20-Tulane 17 (OT)...T.17-14 T.45/247 A.37/47 A.21/29/0/193 T.16/25/0/154 A.0 T.1)
(07-ARMY -6 20-17 (OT) 06-TULANE -5 42-28...SR: Tulane 8-6-1)
MIAMI-OHIO 22 - Temple 10—Temple has scored just a pair of field goals
since QB DiMichele was injured early vs. Penn State. Backup RS frosh QB
Chester Stewart is just 27 of 51 passing with 3 ints. & 0 TDPs and hasn’t been able
to throw deep accurately. Miami-O. jr. QB Raudabaugh gives RedHawks a
significant edge and can put pressure on game but overworked Owl defenders.
(07-TEMPLE 24-Miami 17...M.22-11 T.34/110 M.27/56 M.33/59/2/314 T.14/19/0/188 T.2 M.1)
(07-TEMPLE +6 24-17 05-Miami-Ohio -21 41-14...SR: EVEN 1-1)
Illinois 21 - MICHIGAN 19—Second-half comeback against Wisconsin
could be just the tonic Michigan needs. However, Wolverines still showed a
propensity for turnovers (5 more last week), and RS frosh QB Threet isn’t a
good fit for Rich Rodriguez’ offense. Illini QB Juice Williams has improved as
a passer, sporting the best completion percentage & TD-int. ratio of his career.
RB Dufresne has run for 6.7 ypc, and WR Benn scored 2 TDs at Penn State.
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-Mich. 27-ILL. 17...M.23-15 I.31/137 M.46/115 M.21/33/2/228 I.14/26/1/116 M.1 I.1)
(07-Michigan -1' 27-17...SR: Michigan 66-21-
*Missouri 31 - NEBRASKA 17—Strange situation, with Mizzou favored in
the Land of Corn, where the Tigers haven’t won since 1978, going 0-15! MU
coach Pinkel is quite aware of that fact, however, and has been focused on this
matchup since the end of last season. NU’s 35-point allowance last week vs.
Virginia Tech’s young skill group is an indication that the Cornhusker defense still
has plenty of holes for Mizzou’s Daniel, Maclin & Co. to exploit. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-MO. 41-Neb. 6...M.32-20 M.36/195 N.25/74 M.34/49/0/411 N.25/43/1/223 M.0 N.0)
(07-MISSOURI -6 41-6 06-NEB. -6 34-20 05-MISSOURI -1 41-24...SR: Nebraska 63-35-3)
*Texas 30 - COLORADO 23—Colt McCoy (80%, 14 TDs, 1 int.) can hardly
play much better. But questions remain about the youthful Texas secondary.
With 5-6, 175 true frosh mighty mite Rodney Stewart (107 YR last week vs. the
quick Florida State defense) balancing the offense, CU QB Cody Hawkins has
just enough weapons to hang around Longhorn team that’s just 2-6 as a road
favorite since Vince Young left. TV-ABC
(05-TEXAS -17 42-17; TEXAS -26' 70-3-Big XII championship at Houston, TX...SR: Texas 8-6)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 23 - Florida State 17—It wasn’t too long ago that annual
meetings between these heated rivals carried major national implications. Both
teams very young TY, showing only glimpses of resurgence after decided
decline of recent seasons. Sloppy Seminoles (12 penalties in each of last 2
games!) have better WRs and slight defensive edge. Young Miami QBs RS
frosh Marve & tr. frosh Harris appear further along learning curve than FSU
soph counterparts Ponder & Richardson, however. REG TV-ABC
(07-Miami 37-FLA. ST. 29...F.19-17 F.47/158 M.45/153 F.14/33/2/208 M.11/22/3/173 M.1 F.3)
(07-Miami +5' 37-29 06-Fsu +3' 13-10 05-FSU +3 10-7...SR: Florida State 27-25)
CALIFORNIA 31 - Arizona State 30—Not everything as rosy as it seemed
for Cal in last week’s romp past Colorado State, as electric soph RB Best KO’d
with dislocated elbow, and shaky effort by QB Riley perhaps re-opening
competition with former starter Longshore (who played well in relief).
Meanwhile, Sun Devils had an extra week after numbing home defeats vs.
UNLV & Georgia, and QB Carpenter and vet receiving corps well-equipped to
trade points in Berkeley. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ARIZ. ST. 31-Cal. 20...A.25-18 A.53/144 C.25/98 C.18/36/2/261 A.17/29/0/219 A.1 C.0)
(07-ASU -3 31-20 06-CAL -8 49-21...SR: Arizona State 14-13)
Florida 42 - ARKANSAS 13—Since new Arkansas HC Bobby Petrino might
be wishing he were still in Atlanta following lopsided losses vs. Alabama & rival
Texas (outscored 66-10 by intermission), must “lay it” with Florida, seething
from come-from-ahead 31-30 loss vs. Ole Miss. Gator QB Tebow (61%, 6 TDP,
no ints.), who personally apologized for the Rebel defeat, bounces back vs.
frosh-laden, sieve-like Hog defense (SEC-worst 38 ppg & 191 ypg rushing).
Urban Meyer 3-0 vs. spread following SU loss LY.
(06-Florida -2' 38-28 at Atlanta, Ga...SR: Florida 6-1)
UCF 31 - Smu 24—Can’t back bumbling Knights (10 giveaways, only 3 TDs
last 2 games) even though they’ve covered 6 of 8 as host since moving into new
on-campus stadium LY. SMU taking more lumps than expected under
respected new HC June Jones, but Mustangs’ true frosh QB Mitchell (3 TDP
last week) isn’t getting worse.
(07-Ucf 49-SMU 20...S.25-19 U.39/262 S.54/228 U.14/24/1/222 S.18/38/3/176 U.1 S.1)
(07-Ucf -11' 49-20...SR: UCF 1-0)
BOWLING GREEN 42 - Eastern Michigan 22—BG is just 2-8 last 10 laying
double digits, but that’s about all overwhelmed EMU has going for it. Eagles
have allowed 43 ppg and 234 ypg rushing in compiling 0-4 spread mark this
season, and QB Kyle McMahon (65% in two games after taking over starting
job) left the NIU game with a shoulder injury.
(07-B. Green 39-E. MICH. 32...27-27 E.52/269 B.39/193 B.21/33/1/226 E.12/18/0/134 B.1 E.0)
(07-Bgu -3' 39-32 06-BGU -10' 24-21...SR: Bowling Green 23-10-1)
Navy 27 - AIR FORCE 26—Painful 5-game losing streak vs. Annapolis rival
grates Air Force more than Bill O’Reilly does to Keith Olbermann. But even if
Navy QB Kaipo in civilian wear after reinjuring hamstring at Wake, Mids
confident they can compete on even terms after backup Bryant was at tiller for
last 2½ quarters of upset over Deacs. Falcon option certainly no mystery to
Navy, and new AFA QB Shea Smith yet to display ability to sneak a pass or two
downfield, as did predecessor Carney.
(07-NAVY 31-A. Force 20...A.25-18 N.56/302 A.52/237 A.18/23/0/237 N.4/7/0/79 N.0 A.1)
(07-NAVY -2' 31-20 06-Navy +2' 24-17 05-NAVY -1 27-24...SR: Air Force 25-15)
Nevada 52 - IDAHO 20—With Idaho (1-12 vs. spread last 13 on board!)
plumbing depths of ineptitude unfamiliar to even the longest-suffering Vandal
fans, oddsmakers are going to have to be in a very generous mood before we’d
bite on the Kibbie Dome crew. Especially since Nevada regained its swagger
last week at UNLV, when QB Kaepernick (240 YR & 176 YP vs. Rebs) did a
pretty good Vince Young impersonation. Wolf Pack HC Ault usually takes care
of business as chalk (18-8 in role since ‘04).
(07-NEVADA 37-Idaho 21...N.26-17 N.45/159 I.35/56 N.15/26/0/203 I.12/24/1/156 N.1 I.0)
(07-NEVADA -17' 37-21 06-Nevada -10 45-7 05-NEVADA -8' 62-14...SR: Nevada 16-9)
*TCU 41 - San Diego State 10—After escaping Oklahoma with limbs still
intact, facing SDSU will make TCU feel like it’s on a date with Beyonce’.
Especially since we’ve seen what can happen to Aztec RS frosh QB Lindley
when infantry provides no diversion (as was the case in blowout loss at San
Jose). TCU should similarly shut down SDSU ground traffic and limit Aztecs
thru air. TCU very reliable as home chalk for HC Patterson (11-4 in role since ‘05).
(07-Tcu 45-S. DIEGO ST. 33...T.39-15 T.69/376 S.21/75 S.26/51/0/366 T.26/42/0/318 T.3 S.0)
(07-Tcu -12' 45-33 06-TCU -17 52-0 05-Tcu -6' 23-20...SR: TCU 3-0)
*UCLA 39 - Washington State 15—After respective slow starts, perhaps
new HCs Rick Neuheisel and Paul Wulff could be excused for wishing they
were back at their previous jobs. But there appear to be more silver linings in
UCLA’s clouds than Wazzu’s, especially since vet o.c. Chow seemed to find
defibrillator for moribund Bruin attack in last week’s shootout loss vs. Fresno,
when jerry-rigged OL finally displayed some cohesion, and RB Kahlil Bell
returned to lineup. Positives harder to identify for Cougs, now reduced to their
3rd QB (RS frosh Lobbestael) and allowing 65 ppg (!) vs. Pac-10 foes.
(07-WASH. ST. 27-Ucla 7...W.31-14 W.51/274 U.29/100 W.28/47/1/271 U.17/36/0/167 W.0 U.1)
(07-WSU +6 27-7 06-Wsu +2 37-15 05-Ucla -5 44-41 (OT)...SR: UCLA 35-18-1)
*ARIZONA 45 - Washington 20—Ty Willingham’s chances of survival at UDub
now slightly less than the GOP’s of regaining majorities in the Senate and
House after yet another stinging home loss (vs. old employer Stanford),
especially with do-everything QB Locker likely sidelined by fractured thumb.
Doubt backup Fouch (though brave in relief vs. Cardinal) can help Huskies
compensate for poor-tackling “D” allowing 41 ppg. Meanwhile, Mike Stoops
showing signs of taking no prisoners (UA win margin 39 ppg in its 3 triumphs!)
as he tries to save his own job in Tucson.
(07-Ariz. 48-WASH. 41...W.25-22 W.46/236 A.24/25 A.38/51/1/510 W.17/30/2/336 A.1 W.3)
(07-Arizona +4 48-41 06-Wash. +3' 21-10 05-Wash. +13 38-14...SR: Washington 17-6-1)
*TENNESSEE 27 - Northern Illinois 14—UT in testy mood following first 1-
3 start since ‘94, as vexed Vols continuing to get unsteady play from
mistake-prone QB Crompton (just 52%, 2 TDs, 4 ints.). Senior-laden NIU (22
on roster) is used to competing in hostile environs (Ann Arbor, Columbus &
Madison L3Ys). Huskies battle-tested sr. QB Nicholson owns enough weapons
(emerging smurf-like 5-7 frosh RB M. Brown hard to tackle) to do some damage
vs. non-dominating UT defense (allowing 42% on 3rd down). NIU has covered
6 straight on board. (FIRST MEETING)
*Ball State 38 - TOLEDO 35—Since UT (4 TOs, outscored 21-0 in 3rd Q)
was clearly unable to recover from exhausting 55-54 OT loss vs. Fresno State
week before in its stunning 35-16 home loss vs. FIU, don’t mind taking extra
value with Rockets, who’re 6-1 as a Rubber Bowl underdog since ‘03. UT’s
capable QB Opelt (20 starts) & his sure-handed, rangy WRs, 6-5 S. Williams &
6-4 N. Moore, able to trade most of way with BSU’s prolific triggerman N. Davis.
(07-BALL ST. 41-Toledo 20...T.26-20 T.39/214 B.41/181 B.14/20/0/265 T.20/34/2/203 B.0 T.0)
(07-BSU -6' 41-20 06-Bsu +4' 20-17 05-Toledo -20 34-14...SR: EVEN 16-16-1)
Akron 31 - KENT STATE 20—Not difficult to go against Kent State, which
has dropped 11 in a row against the points, has given up 44 ppg in last 3 on the
line, and ranks 105th on defense & 112th in turnover margin. Add in fact that
star Flash RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two contests with an ankle
injury and is very iffy for this game, and you have enough evidence to back
Akron. Zips are on a 6-1-1 spread run, and QB Jacquemain has thrown for more
than 200 yards in each game this season.
(07-AKRON 27-Kent St. 20...A.16-15 K.49/220 A.50/133 K.8/21/2/155 A.9/23/1/112 A.1 K.2)
(07-AKRON +2' 27-20 06-KSU +2' 37-15 05-AKRON -13' 35-3...SR: Akron 28-20-2)
*SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Utep 35—Miners dug themselves out of the dumps
last week, ending 9-game losing streak with resounding 58-13 home win over
UCF. Meanwhile HC Fedora’s USM attack a work in progress under direction
of RS frosh QB Austin Davis. Confident soph Vittatoe (30 TDP, only 11 ints. last
1+ seasons) well established under center for revived UTEP, and attacking
Miner defense has scored 4 TDs in last 2 games.
(07-S. Miss 56-UTEP. 30...S.29-21 S.62/363 U.30/124 U.19/42/1/290 S.10/22/1/205 S.1 U.1)
(07-Southern Miss -3 56-30...SR: Southern Miss 2-1)
Oklahoma 48 - BAYLOR 13—OU is No. 1 in the country for the first time
since just prior to its Big XII title game loss to K-State in 2003, with Sam
Bradford (72%, 12 TDs, 2 ints.) igniting the Sooners’ no-huddle, big-play
offense to near perfection. HC Art Briles has clearly rejuvenated the Baylor
program. But it’s asking a lot of speedy true frosh QB Robert Griffin to trade
points with Bradford. Note, however, OU only 2-5 vs. the spread on the road in
2007; has Texas next.
(07-OKLA. 52-Bay. 21...O.24-20 O.37/180 B.26/170 O.20/25/1/353 B.25/42/2/280 O.0 B.0)
(07-OKLA. -38' 52-21 06-Okla. -20' 36-10 05-OKLA. -14' 37-30 (OT)...SR: Oklahoma 17-0)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 51 - Texas A&M 23—Oklahoma State has lost four
straight in series to A&M, the last three in memorable, agonizing fashion
(Cowboys blew 18-point lead LY!). So, with the Aggie defense somewhat
lacking in speed, and with the OSU offense (51 ppg TY) cooking on all cylinders
(612 yards vs. athletic Troy last week) while A&M is testing its new offense onBig XII road for the first time, will look for some Cowboy revenge.
(07-TX. A&M 24-Osu 23...O.23-19 O.41/200 T.43/150 O.17/27/0/259 T.12/21/0/218 T.0 O.1)
(07-TAM -6' 24-23 06-Tam +3 34-33 (OT) 05-TAM -20 62-23...SR: Texas A&M 17-6)
*WISCONSIN 26 - Ohio State 21—Wisconsin’s uncharacteristic generosity
at Michigan (4 TOs, including int.-return TD) unlikely to repeat itself now that
Badgers are back at Camp Randall Stadium. Return of Beanie Wells was a plus
for OSU (106 YR), but offense still adjusting to frosh QB Pryor, and the stats he
compiled at home against Minnesota won’t be as easy to come by facing stout
Badger stop unit smarting from setback at Ann Arbor. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-OSU 38-Wis. 17...O.21-15 O.36/211 W.37/12 W.18/30/0/269 O.17/28/0/166 O.0 W.2)
(07-OHIO STATE -16 38-17...SR: Ohio State 51-17-5)
*TULSA 59 - Rice 49—Torrid Tulsa, which has scored at least 45 points in 9
of its last 10 games, hasn’t missed a beat with sr. QB David Johnson (74%,
nation-leading 19 TDP, only 4 ints.) directing o.c. Malzahn’s creative attack. But
vulnerable Hurricane defense unlikely to keep irrepressible Rice sr. QB Clement
(64 TDP & 17 TDR last 2+ seasons!) from trading scores.
(07-Tulsa 48-RICE 43...R.38-28 R.37/159 T.37/151 R.40/67/1/541 T.22/39/1/441 T.0 R.0)
(07-Tulsa -13 48-43 06-Rice +14 41-38 (OT) 05-Tulsa -7 41-21...SR: Rice 7-5-1)
*SOUTHERN CAL 34 - Oregon 23—We’ll take Pete Carroll at his word and
assume there’s no chance SC will come out as flat as it did in last week’s
stunning loss at Corvallis. But we’ll also take Carroll at his word that some of
Troy’s fundamentals not where they should be (especially after his “D” proved
vulnerable to Beavers’ run game). Oregon spread scoring plenty of points with
whomever is at QB (capable juco Masoli back in lineup last week at Wazzu). And
remember Mike Bellotti has fared better than most vs. Carroll (beating him twice).
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ORE. 24-S. Cal 17...O.22-18 O.47/182 S.33/101 S.26/42/2/277 O.16/25/0/157 O.2 S.1)
(07-OREGON -3 24-17 06-USC -8 35-10 05-Usc -21 45-13...SR: Southern Cal 36-16-2)
*NEW MEXICO 27 - Wyoming 10—UNM hardly the archetype of a reliable big
favorite (Lobos only 1-3 as DD chalk since ‘05), especially with catalyst QB Porterie
out and RS frosh reliever Gruner spending most of his time handing off to RBs
Ferguson & Baker. But that’s more than can be said of confused Wyo (0-12-1 last
13 on board!), whose QB merry-go-round (4 took snaps last week vs. BG!) now has
Joe Glenn looking like the first HC who could be canned before season concludes.
(07-N. Mex. 20-WYO. 3...N.15-12 N.46/153 W.30/48 N.12/21/0/191 W.21/35/0/190 N.0 W.1)
(07-Unm +3' 20-3 06-Wyo. -1' 14-10 05-Unm +6' 27-24...SR: Wyoming 32-28)
*FRESNO STATE 38 - Hawaii 10—Since UH offense (skunked in 2nd H of
SJS loss week ago!) light years away from LY’s explosive, Colt Brennan-led
attack, must support class-dropping FSU side still fuming over 68-37 blowout on
this field in ‘06. Bulldogs productive QB Brandstater & his well-balanced attack will
have its way vs. overworked Warrior “D” that’s allowed 101 pts. in 1st two road tilts.
(07-HAW 37-Fres. St. 30...25-25 F.44/182 H.24/137 H.29/40/1/410 F.15/26/0/209 H.1 F.1)
(07-HAWAII -19 37-30 06-Hawaii -4 68-37 05-Fsu -12' 27-13...SR: Fresno St. 20-19-1)
ADDED GAMES
VIRGINIA TECH 35 - Western Kentucky 10—Tech off tough 3-game stretch
(wins by 3, 3, and 5 points), and Hokie HC Beamer playing it very close to the
vest on offense. Can outclassed WKU (just 26 points total in last 4 visits to BCS
teams) score enough to stay respectable? (FIRST MEETING)
*LA. MONROE 30 - La.-Lafayette 24—There’s no such thing as home-field
edge in this bayou version of Hatfields vs. the McCoys (road team has won last
5 meetings!). But scheduling dynamics might be disadvantage for ULL, which
emptied chamber in last week’s upset attempt at Kansas State, while Monroe
recuperated with needed bye. Ragin’ Cajun QB Desormeaux no mystery to
Warhawks, whose slick QB Lancaster more likely to make deciding plays thru air.
(07-Mon. 17-LAF. 11...Ll.21-18 Lm.52/196 Ll.37/180 Ll.19/38/1/240 Lm.11/19/0/99 Lm.0 Ll.1)
(07-Ulm -3' 17-11 06-Ulm +3 39-20 05-Ull +2' 54-21...SR: La.-Monroe 22-20)
*Florida Intl. 31 - NORTH TEXAS 30—Talk about contrasting performances.
FIU off 35-16 upset win at Toledo, and UNT recouping from mortifying 77-20
debacle at Rice. But still might slightly lean to Mean Green, which owns QB
edge with soph QB Vizza, who hadn’t thrown a pick until last week. Dog has
covered 3 straight between these two Sun Belt bottom-feeders.
(07-FL. INTL. 38-N. Tex. 19...N.16-15 F.40/116 N.26/92 N.31/54/2/253 F.11/20/1/228 F.0 N.1)
(07-FIU +2' 38-19 06-NTU +1' 25-22 (OT) 05-Ntu +1' 13-10...SR: North Texas 2-1)
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7
Troy at Florida Atlantic
(07-Fla. Atl. 38-TROY 32...T.27-23 T.39/175 F.37/141 F.23/34/0/291 T.36/50/1/271 F.0 T.2)
(07-Fla. Atl +15' 38-32 06-Troy -3' 24-17 05-TROY +3' 28-14...SR: Troy 4-1)
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#145090 - 10/01/08 08:10 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Posts: 45062
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Red Sheet
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OCTOBER 4, 2008
VOLUME 40, NUMBER 6
South Carolina 27 - MISSISSIPPI 20 - (2:00 EDT) --Line opened at Mississippi minus 3, and is now minus
2½. This contest sets up perfectly for the Gamecocks, not only catching the Rebs off their
epic draining upset of Florida, but also on the heels of their previous grinder vs Vandy. SC
has been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but took Georgia to the final gun, & is in off
a couple of warmups, Wofford & UAB. The 'Cocks field the 9th best "D" in the nation, & top
passing "D", which should put Reb QB Snead to the test. SEC has been dog heaven in this
type of affair, & Spurrier has been a premier road pup play. And again.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) --Line opened at OklahomaSt minus 23½, and is now
minus 24½. The Cowboys have to be the number one "under the radar" team in the land,
just now sneaking into the Top 25 (21st & 22nd in the polls). Their triumvirate of QB Robinson
(5th ranked passer in the land), Hunter (#3 rusher), & Bryant (#5 receiver) lead the nation's
3rd rated scoring offense. Contrast that to the Aggies, who've rank 101st in total offense,
are 103rd in rushing (133 RYs vs Army), & are hurting at QB. Toss in the fact that the
'Pokes have dropped 2 straight series heartbreakers. Revenge in true style.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 89
MIAMI-OHIO 30 - Temple 10 - (3:30) --Line opened at Miami minus 8, and is now minus 7. A week ago, we
went against these Owls, in their home match with WesternMichigan, figuring that their
offensive production would take a nose-dive, with the loss of QB DeMichele, & it more than
proved out, as Temple managed but a mere FG vs the Broncos. However, it ended in a
push, as Western, despite a 252-60 PY edge, & an 18-10 FD advantage, was able to post
just 7 pts itself. But the Owls must now travel to a Miami team, which has already faced a
non-conference slate of Vandy, Michigan, & Cincinnati. Another revenger.
RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 88
BOWLING GREEN 48 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) --Line opened at BowlingGreen minus 20, and is now
minus 21. The Falcons of BG are another rather unnoticed team, as their 2-2 log would
indicate. However, those setbacks came vs the likes of Minnesota & Boise. So note that the
Gophers have but a single loss, to OhioSt, while the Broncos are perfect, while holding
down the 17th spot in the nation. Not only that, but the Falcs played Minny even-up, statwise,
except for a 5-0 TO deficit. And their loss to Boise again was due to the OT (3), as BG had
22-16 FD edge. Eagles allowing 44 ppg in their last 7 lined games.
RATING: BOWLING GREEN 88
Akron 34 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) --Line opened at Akron minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As long as
the Flashes are on the board, there is only one way to go. That's right, an 0-11 spread run!
And as we noted on Pointwise, earlier in the week, they are minus 146½ pts ATS in their
last 6 games. They have actually been decent, overland, but their ace RB Jarvis is now
hurting (ankle). Defensively, they can't stop much, ranking 105th overall, including 114th vs
the run. The Zips' record is a bit deceiving, with 2 of their 3 losses coming vs Wisconsin (5½
pt cover), & Cincinnati (9-pt cover). Leadership of Jacquemain decides it.
RATING: AKRON 88
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:15) --Line opened at NewEngland minus 3½, and is now
minus 3. As we wrote earlier, had these 2 met on opening week, the spread would have
been at least 10 pts higher. The loss of Brady, of course, is monumental. However, the
defense stepped up in the Pats' 2 openers, allowing 10 & 10 pts. But it all collapsed in 3813
shocking loss to Miami, at home. Thus, this contest is a classic "backs-to-the-wall"
situation for the Patriots. No questioning the improvement of the Niners (33 & 31 pt efforts
in 2 of their last 3 outings), thus there will be no sneaking up. Pats have to take it.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Missouri, MichiganSt, UCLA -- NFL: Jacksonville, Giants, Minnesota
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): La-Lafayette (+3 to -2½); Utah (-8 to -12); FresnoSt (-20
to -22½); PennSt (-10½ to -12½); ColoradoSt (Pick to -2); Florida (-22 to -24); SanDiegoSt (26 to +24); BC
(-6½ to -8); WestVirginia (-13 to -14½); MichiganSt (-8 to -9½); Vanderbilt (+6 to +4½); BallSt (-5½ to -7);
Missouri (-9 to -10½); Arizona (-18 to -19½) -NFL: Seattle (+9 to +7); KansasCity (+10½ to +9½) -TIME
CHANGES: Alabama/Kentucky: now 3:30 - KEY INJURIES: Cal RB Best (elbow) out; Cincy QB Pike (arm)
out; UConn QB Lorenzen (foot) out; EMich QB McMahon (shoulder) questionable; GaTech QB Nesbitt (hamstring)
questionable; Iowa RB Greene (head) probable; Illinois RB Dufrene (shoulder) probable; Kent RB
Jarvis (ankle) questionable; Navy QB Enhada (hamstring) questionable); NewMexico RB Ferguson (shoulder)
probable; NoIllinois RB Brown (ankle) questionable; OregonSt WR Stroughter (hip) probable; OklaSt
TE Pettigrew (ankle) questionable; Purdue RB Sheets (shoulder) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder)
out; WashSt QB Lopina (back) out; Washington QB Locker (thumb) out; WVa QB White (thumb) probable;
NFL: Card WR Bolden (head) doubtful; Bengal QB Palmer (elbow) doubtful; Lion QB Kitna (knee)
questionable; Packer QB Rodgers (shoulder) questionable; Vike QB Frerotte (hand) probable; Eagle RB
Westbrook (ankle) questionable; Steeler RB Parker (knee) questionable.
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#145092 - 10/01/08 08:25 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/30 to 10/6
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Power Sweep
4* MICHIGAN over Illinois - LY with the game tied mid-4Q, IL fmbl’d a punt to set up a UM TD as
they lost 27-17 (+1). UM is 39-4-2 SU vs IL. IL is 5-2 as an AD (1-1 TY) but on its 2nd straight road trip
and this is Zook’s 1st trip to the Big House. Mich won as an Underdog POW on these pages and a 4H
LPS in the biggest UM comeback in Michigan Stadium history as they trailed Wisky 19-0 at the half.
Five UM 1H TO’s set up the Badgers but the Wolves, who had just 21 1H yds, exploded in the 2H for
247 yds & 27 pts (1 IR TD). Threet had a season high 58 yd run vs the Badgers but UM is #109 in the
NCAA in pass eff & #110 in ttl off. Wolves D allows 89 rush ypg (2.3) with 14 sks. IL lost at PSU 38-24
as they went for it on 4th & 2 at their own 48 early 3Q but were SOD and all’d 94 yd KR TD. QB Williams
avg 226 ypg (59%) with a 9-6 ratio and 283 rush yds. RB Dufrene (396, 6.7) suffered a shoulder inj LW
(CS). Illini allow 183 rush ypg (4.8). Wolves shutdown Williams & Co and take adv of a porous Illini D.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN 30 Illinois 20
3* Florida St over MIAMI, FL - This used to be one of the top rivalries but both have gone thru a
downturn recently (LY was 1st meeting S/’77 that neither ranked). This game is always close with the
L/7 decided by 4.4 ppg and none by more than 8. FSU was in control on LY’s game but let it slip away
(see PH) as FSU led 29-24 & UM scored 2 TD’s in :11 w/1:05 left. Miami is 7-2 SU in the series. FSU
won their last trip here in ‘06 13-10 (+3’) in a D struggle (176-134 yd edge, two tms 17 comb FD’s).
Shannon is 0-5 ATS in ACC HG’s with 4 upset losses as they were upset LW 28-24 (-8) vs NC. QB Marve
is avg 139 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. FSU is 5-9 as an AF. LW the Noles defeated Colorado 39-21 in
Bowden’s 500th game as a HC giving us our Sept GOM 5H Winner. FSU has a solid off and ST’s edge
(off #30-64, ST #37-73) but these 2 matchup pretty evenly on D (FSU #14-17). FSU QB Ponder is avg
137 ypg (51%) with a 6-4 ratio. RB Smith has rushed for 302 yds (5.7). FSU receives their final player
back from susp and you saw what they could do with their full compliment of players. The speedy D will
frustrate rFr QB Marve. FORECAST: Florida St 21 MIAMI, FL 17
3* TULANE over Army - This will be the first game at the outdoor Gormley Stadium S/‘04 and is HC.
Tulane is 5-1-1 SU at home vs Army (avg score 30-16) and the last trip here we used a 3H LPS on
Tulane (-5’) and they won easier than the 42-28 final with a 35-16 FD edge. LY was a tough loss for TU
as they led by 10 w/2:00 left but Army tied it on a Hail Mary and won in OT. TU had a 401-240 yd edge
and the departed RB Forte rushed for 202. That was Army’s last win as they have dropped 10 str. Army
is off their best off perf of the yr as their new option off finally started clicking. QB Bowden, in his first
start, led with 128 yds (3.8). They were only outgained 290-284 and had a 21-14 FD edge. The Knights
had just 1 TO, but A&M returned that fmbl 58 yds for a TD and held on to win 21-17, but Army easily
got their 1st cover of the yr (+28). Tulane does have 2 extra days to prep, which is always a plus, and is
all’g just 69 ypg rush (2.8). They led SMU 31-7 at the half but had to hang on to win 34-27 as we won
a Thur Night Marquee Play on SMU (+18). Tulane has played the tougher schedule (#59-111), has the
better off (#90-120) and D (#52-102) and catches Army in 2nd of B2B AG’s in a situation where they
had a disappointing finish in a competitive gm vs A&M. FORECAST: TULANE 38 Army 10
2* NOTRE DAME over Stanford - This marks the12th straight year these 2 have met with ND winning
the L/6 SU (last loss hosting Stanford was in ‘92) while going 4-2 ATS. Irish QB Clausen (275 pass yds,
3 TD) and RB Allen (134 rush yds) recorded career highs allowing ND to pull away in the 2H vs Pur
while delivering a 3H LPS Winner. The Irish have gone 25-12-1 SU & 23-15 ATS all-time vs the P10
but Weis has struggled as a HF going just 3-8 ATS. These schools combined for 6 TO’s, 5 missed FG’s,
4 plays overturned by replay & 9 PF’s LY with ND actually the underdog on the road in their 21-14 win
(+4’).The Cardinal are in their 4th RG in 5 weeks and now travel to the Midwest in a P10 sandwich after
gaining a ssn best 466 yds vs a weak Husky defense as bkup RB Kimble marched for a career-high
157 yds replacing an inj’d RB Gerhart (concussion-CS) midway through the 1Q. While the dog in this
series has gone 6-3 ATS in recent years, the resurgent Irish should be too much for the road weary
Cardinal in this one. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 34 Stanford 17
2* Duke (+) over GEORGIA TECH - The winner in this series has won by DD 19 of 22 gms (86%). GT
is 12-1 SU in the series, has won 6 straight in Atl, is off a bye and only has a IAA foe on deck. Duke DC
MacIntyre played football for GT for 2 years. Duke got some excellent prep work for this as they faced
Johnson’s old team Navy (held Midshipmen to a ssn low 13 FD’s & 207 rush yds) on Sept 13 and has
a bye next week. Since Duke upset GT in ‘03 the Wreck has won the L/4 by 22 ppg. Johnson is 4-9 as
a HF and Cutcliffe is 4-2 as an AD but this is their road opener. GT is avg 307 rush pg (#5 NCAA). GT
is holding opp’s to just over 14 ppg and has been especially aggressive creating TO’s (11). QB Nesbitt
suffered a hamstring 2 wks ago but Johnson said he could be back vs Duke. On the season Nesbitt
is avg 140 ypg ttl off. RB Dwyer has 389 rush yds (8.1). GT has the edge on both sides of the ball (off
#31-77, def #40-46). Duke is 1 holding pen away from being unbeaten. They snapped a 25 gm ACC
losing streak with their 31-3 win over UVA LW & are off to their best start S/’94. QB Lewis is #2 in the
ACC avg 219 ypg (61%) with a 7-2 ratio. WR Riley has 22 rec (12.2). Duke is a much improved team
allowing 117 less ypg than LY. Duke showed LW that they’re learning how to win under SEC Coach
Cutcliffe and takes the next step. FORECAST: Duke 20 (+) GEORGIA TECH 24
2* W MICHIGAN over Ohio - The Bobcats are 2-9 SU visiting Kalamazoo with wins in ‘96 & ‘98. Last
met in ‘06 and Ohio, despite just 10 FD, still won at home 27-20 (+4). This is HC for WM and their only
IA HG in a 2 month span so the fans should be hungry. Ohio is 1-4 SU (only win vs IAA tm) with their
avg loss by 6 ppg but is 4-1 ATS. WM is 4-1 SU but 1-3 ATS. WM was avg over 36 ppg but was held to
just 7 pts vs Temple. Ohio is 0-1 SU in MAC play and WM is 2-0 SU in MAC play (0-2 ATS) winning by
a comb 7 pts. Despite having just 35 yds vs TU LW, WM RB West leads w/467 (5.8) which is more than
twice the rest of the tm combined. WM QB Hiller avg 271 ypg (70%) with a 15-3 ratio. Ohio QB Jackson
in his 3 starts is avg 293 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. The Bobcats top rusher is Harden with 274 (5.3).
The Broncos have a slight def edge (#65-71) and a bigger off edge (#67-101). WM came up flat vs the
Owls without their starting QB but now stay focused at home. Nothing wrong with their D as they’ve
held their L/2 opp to 23 ttl FD’s and 474 combined yds. FORECAST: W MICHIGAN 30 Ohio 16
Thursday, October 2nd - Pittsburgh at USF - LY USF rallied from a 14-7 deficit. They outscored Pitt 38-23 in
the 2H & got IR TD’s by Allen & Williams & an int by Moffit down to the 1. Each of the 5 gms has been decided
by 9 pts or more. Pitt is 4-1 ATS as an AD while USF is 6-1 at home in BE play (3-0 conf opener). The key to
this game will be D with USF’s #16 D facing our #32 D. Both teams are off solid wins and have a bye on deck.
LY Pitt went into Morgantown and upset #2 WV so they will be confident vs the #10 tm in the nation.
Memphis at UAB - LY UM won the “Battle of the Bones” to mark the 1st time the 100 lb bronze rack of ribs
headed to Memphis. Before LY’s loss, UAB had reeled off 7 straight wins SU and ATS vs UM but Mem had a
563-338 yd edge in the win. UAB is 4-9 SU and ATS in CUSA HG’s. Memphis is 1-5 as an AF in 5 yrs. UAB is
8-4-1 as a HD. Memphis is off a win over Ark St, in which they outgained ASU 453-352. The Tigers are 19-29
off a SU win under HC West. UAB is coming off a 26-13 loss to S Car, where they hung around, but were
outgained 353-207. UAB is 0-2 off a SU loss TY, but the home tm has covered 3 out of 4 in this series.
Oregon St at UTAH - LY UT travelled to Corvallis in the opener but lost QB Johnson and RB Asiata
in the 1H (inj). It was 7-7 at half but OSU took adv in the 2H and won 24-7. UT is 5-8 (2-1 TY) ATS vs
non-conf under Whittingham. OSU is off its huge win vs USC (1st time in 41 yrs OSU knocked off a #1
tm) outgaining them 343-313 and are now loaded with confidence. UT may have been caught looking
ahead LW in their 37-21 win over IAA Weber St. After WSU tied it 7-7, UT rattled off 30 straight pts
& finished with a 450-359 yd edge (WSU garbage yds). These two match up pretty evenly on off (UT
#24-27) and D (OSU #23-26) but UT has a huge ST’s edge (#11-111).
Friday, October 3rd
Cincinnati at MARSHALL - These schools are just 153 miles apart but have only
met 3 times S/‘46, two of those in bowls (‘00 & ‘04). Marshall is 6-1-1 as a HD. LY the Herd appeared
to have the cover trailing 26-14 in the 4Q (+24) but Cincy got 2 late TD’s. LW Cincy QB Pike broke his
non-throwing arm in their 17-15 win over Akron. Mar is off a poor off showing in their 27-3 loss to WV.
Their top 3 threats (Marshall, Passmore & Slate) were all limited in the loss. Cincy is 5-10 as an AF but
Kelly is 7-2 ATS in non-conf play. This is the Bearcats’ 1st trip to Huntington.
Byu at UTAH ST - BYU is 18-1 SU S/’83 vs the Aggies with the only loss (58-56) here in ‘93. The Cougars
have won 9 of the L/11 SU in Logan, but in their L/2 trips here, they were 17 pt AF & barely escaped
winning 34-31 in 2OT (‘99) & 35-34 (‘02). USU is 2-8 ATS as a HD while BYU is 7-4 ATS as an AF under
HC Mendenhall. USU’s dual-threat QB Borel (123 ypg, 55%, 5-2 ratio, 217 rush) helped spark the Aggies
to their first win of the yr, but USU’s D will be hard-pressed to slow down BYU’s high-octane off (481 ypg)
led by Heisman hopeful QB Hall who is avg 321 ypg (74%) with a 15-2 ratio. The Cougars have been stellar
outscoring their L/2 foes 103-0 to post B2B shutouts (first time S/’85) & BYU has yet to give up a sack. The
Cougars own the nation’s longest current win streak (14). Both tms are off byes & have conf gms on deck.
Saturday Games
Boston College 21 NC STATE 17 - The Eagles defeated their former HC & the
Wolfpack 37-17 in the 1st meeting since O’Brien left for Raleigh but did benefit from +6 in TO’s (NCSt
407-373 yd edge). BC leads the series 3-2 but the HT is 3-0 in ACC play & the Eagles are 0-6 as an AF.
NCSt got a 34 yd TD pass on the final play to upset O’Brien’s BC team here in ‘06. This is the first true
road game for BC QB Crane and on the season he is avg 115 ypg (52%) with a 2-5 ratio. True Fr RB
Harris (PS#159) has 276 rush yd (7.7). BC’s D is #2 in the NCAA only allowing 6.5 ppg & are only all’g
253.5 ttl ypg while NCSt is all’g 401 ypg & 30 ppg (our ranking off BC #85-92, def #20-85). NCSt has
been plagued with inj’s and were w/o probably their top offensive & defensive players, QB Wilson and
LB Irving (CS). Wilson’s fill-in QB Beck avg 118 ypg (45%) with a 2-6 ratio. RB Brown has 320 rush yds
(4.4). Both tms have a bye next week. This is a an emotional game for O’Brien who left a BC team that
went to the ACC Title game that year for a struggling Wolfpack squad.
WEST VIRGINIA 31 Rutgers 14 - WV has won 13 in a row SU in the series. LY on a rain soaked field
RU took the field in all black uniforms for the 1st time ever. We used a 4H LPS on WV and a 3H Key in
PS. RU QB Mike Teel was playing with a bruised throwing hand but his rec’s dropped 7 passes. WV won
31-3 (-6’) on the road. We won with our 5H College Game of the Year on WV (-13’) 37-13 in 1987. LW
WV rushed for over 300 yds for the 2nd straight week in their 27-3 win over Marshall. They squandered
many chances to pile on pts and also took a knee at the MU5 to end the game. Rutgers got their 1st win
of the year vs Morgan St 38-0. An offense that has struggled (40 pts 1st 3)only put up 297 yds vs IAA
opponent. WV has the off edge (#29-86), def (#29-50) and home edge. The visitor is 6-0 ATS and WV is
1-5 as a Big East HF but Rut is 11-19 as a BE AD. WV looks to be back on track while Schiano tries to
keep his team from imploding as they might be on their way to a losing ssn.
Penn St 34 PURDUE 20 - PSt is 1-7 ATS (lost L/5) on the conf road but did win their last trip here (12-0,
-3’ in ‘06) in the lone shutout of Tiller’s career. LY PSt had a season high 29 FD’s vs Purdue but failed to
cover at home (see PH). Purdue is 10-1 SU in their Big Ten opener and has only been a Big Ten HD 9
times in 11 yrs (5-4 ATS). We went against Purdue LW winning a 3H LPS in a 38-21 loss at Notre Dame
in which the short handed Boilers D (minus starting 2 LB’s) couldn’t stop the Irish in the 3Q in which
they totalled 21 pts & 204 yds. The passing game hasn’t clicked as Painter is just #80 in the NCAA in
pass eff avg 278 ypg (57%) with a 5-4 ratio. PSt is off a 38-24 win over Illinois in which Williams (PS#1)
finally lived up to his HS hype with 241 all-purp yds & 3 TD’s including a 94 yd KR TD. QB Clark leads
the conf in pass eff avg 179 ypg (63%) with a 9-1 ratio. PSt’s D got a boost with the return of susp’d DL
Evans (12.5 sk in ‘07) & Koroma. The Lions have all of the edges (#8-52 off, #12-82 D & #5-33 ST’s) and
look like the top cats in the league right now.
MICHIGAN ST 24 Iowa 20 - LY Iowa QB Christensen threw for just 23 yds in reg but the Hawks won 34-27
in 2 OT’s (see PH) with Mich St blowing a 17-3 (252-71 yd edge) halftime lead. The home team has won 8 in
a row SU in the series. MSU is just 5-10 as a conf HF. MSU provided us with another 4H LPS Winner with a
42-29 win over Indiana LW. QB Hoyer took advantage of a banged up Hoosier secondary with 261 yds & 2
TD to compliment Ringer’s latest 40+ carry game (#2 NCAA with 897 yds). MSU’s D allows 123 rush ypg (4.4)
and now takes on the league’s 2nd leading rusher in 235 lb Greene (665, 6.7). Greene had his 5th straight
100 yd gm vs NW despite missing the final 12:00 due to a concussion. Iowa blew a 17-3 2Q lead thanks to 5
TO’s and ended the game throwing 4 straight incompletions at the NW 8. Iowa is allowing 100 rush ypg (3.1).
The Spartans have played a tougher sked (#45-83) as Hawks QB Stanzi will get his 1st road start.
MINNESOTA 38 Indiana 24 - The home team is 9-1 SU. Minny has won the L/2 in the dome by a combined
118-33 including 63-26 (-5’) in ‘06. Hoosiers last win here was in ‘93. LY Minny lost by 20 on the road but
was only outgained 463-402. The 2 have avg 69 ppg the L/7. IU is 3-11 ATS off a SU conf loss. Hoosiers’
QB Lewis has accounted for 353 ypg vs the Gophers in 2 career starts but was banged up (leg) in a 42-39
loss to Mich St. In that game IU had a 97 yd TD pass called back on a holding penalty in the EZ which
resulted in a safety. IU’s beaten up secondary (minus 3 starters) lost 2 more DB’s LW. Minny lost to 34-21 in
Columbus as the Gophers scored 2 4Q TD’s vs OSU’s reserves and allowed 279 rush yds including 97 to
OSU’s QB Pryor. QB Weber avg 231 ypg (70%) with an 8-2 ratio. WR Decker is the Big Ten’s #1 rec with 37
(13.7). This is Brew’s 1st as a B10 AF (0-1 AF LY) but the improved Gophers have edges all around (#47-54
off, #67-88 D, #38-78 ST & #48-108 sked) and need this one to get to the postseason.
Maryland 31 VIRGINIA 14 - LY Virginia needed a TD with :16 to pull out the 18-17 win (see PH). Maryland
is 4-12 SU vs the Cavs | | | | |
