JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP S. (G1), 10TH-BEL, $750,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4M, 5:52 P.M. EDT, 9-27

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 RAVEL PLETCHER TODD A BEJARANO R 126
2 MERCHANT MARINE JERKENS H ALLEN VELASQUEZ CORNE 126
3 TIMBER RESERVE KIMMEL JOHN C DESORMEAUX K J 126
4 WANDERIN BOY ZITO NICHOLAS P GARCIA A 126
5 CURLIN ASMUSSEN STEVEN M ALBARADO R J 126
6 ANGLIANA CONTESSA GARY C MARAGH RAJIV 126
7 A. P. ARROW PLETCHER TODD A DOMINGUEZ R A 126
8 STONES RIVER JONES J LARRY SAEZ GABRIEL 126
9 MAMBO IN SEATTLE HOWARD NEIL J PRADO E S 122

Reigning Horse of the Year CURLIN (Smart Strike) will look to join an elite group of back-to-back winners of the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational S. (G1) at Belmont on Saturday, and in the process, eclipse Cigar's earnings mark for North American-based runners. The Steve Asmussen-trained four-year-old has been an awesome creature from day one and is clearly the top handicap performer in the United States, but we feel that he may be ripe, if he ever is, for a defeat in this one.

MERCHANT MARINE (Tiznow) has been a smart performer for Allen Jerkens this campaign, picking up a pair of listed stakes wins, both of which have come over this oval. While the gelding lacks the class of many in this field, he's the type of up-and-comer who could burst onto the scene with a signature win in a race of this magnitude. We loved the tenacity the bay showed in the Devil Diver S., and we know that his conditioner is quite high on him, so maybe that one-mile work in advance of this is what he needs to propel himself past his more accomplished foes. In a year where the progeny of Tiznow have been winning all over the country, this could be his biggest coup as a stallion to date. Cornelio Velasquez has the call.

It's not easy to pick against Curlin, but the superstar has failed to wow us on two consecutive occasions. Most recently, the burly four-year-old was very workmanlike to pass an allowance winner in the Woodward S. (G1), and while we still applaud the super horse for getting the job done, a betting man should have seen that race as an opportunity to potentially beat him in his return. The defending champ should get a nice tempo to run at late under Robby Albarado, and we would obviously not be floored if he ran by them all for his 11th win from 15 starts.

MAMBO IN SEATTLE (Kingmambo), the hard-luck loser of the Travers S. (G1), will try older horses in here for Neil Howard. The blue-blooded sophomore has improved steadily throughout this campaign and looks like an obvious player in this test. The bay colt has earned triple-digit BRIS Late Pace numbers in three of his last four, and he could get a nice trip from his outside post. We love the addition of Edgar Prado on the Kentucky-bred, but he still has some work to do to win this testing race.

A. P. ARROW (A.P. Indy) has been unplaced in four consecutive outings, most recently the Woodward, and the Todd Pletcher trainee is winless in three tries over this oval. With that said, the six-year-old is generally a better horse in the fall than the summer, he's one of the few proven to endure 10 furlongs, and he exits five consecutive Grade 1 events. We'll use the well-bred chestnut in our gimmicks.

WANDERIN BOY (Seeking the Gold) is deserving of a Grade 1 win for being a hard-knocking handicapper for some time, but the Nick Zito charge will need his very best to improve on his runner-up showing in this event in 2006. The seven-year-old chestnut finished a clear third in the Woodward after chasing the early pace, and the Kentucky-bred never threw in the towel as he appeared to be gaining on the runner-up in the latter stages. The speedy horse could be compromised by the abundance of pace signed on for this one, but we would not be shocked to see the courageous one finish in the top three.

TIMBER RESERVE (Forest Camp) absolutely toyed with a decent allowance cast at Saratoga most recently, but the John Kimmel charge will need something even better to topple this proven bunch. The Grade 2 hero is really good when he's right, but too often, the dark bay throws in a clunker and never factors. The Kentucky-bred could be the speed of the speed, but if things don't go just right for him, he will not be afraid to quit early. Your call.

The light bulb went on for STONES RIVER (Monarchos) in May for trainer Larry Jones, as the sophomore turned from average into very good in a short span. A wide fourth last out in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), the gray colt has dominated four fields prior to that by a combined 22 1/2 lengths, all coming at Delaware. We do like the aggressive placement of the late bloomer and think his running style fits this group, but we can't see this one in the top three just yet. Note that he is three-for-three on off tracks, though.

RAVEL (Fusaichi Pegasus) is best known for winning a Grade 3 race in February of last year. The dark bay four-year-old comes into this one in questionable form for Todd Pletcher, and is obviously not the sturdiest of runners, so we'll let him beat us in here. ANGLIANA (Giant's Causeway) has struggled at the Grade 3 level and would need a career best to sniff the top three against these foes.

1st-MERCHANT MARINE
2nd-CURLIN
3rd-MAMBO IN SEATTLE
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Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis