#144379 - 09/22/08 02:26 PM
Newsletters 9/23 to 9/29
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FREAK
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Post em if ya got em!
_________________________
Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis
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#144461 - 09/23/08 09:38 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/23 to 9/29
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
11 WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Temple
Shoulder injury to Temple QB Adam DiMichele gives Western Michigan a massive QB edge in this game. HC Al
Golden said his QB (and charismatic leader of an Owl team that covered 3 of its first 4 this season) will be out
“a considerable amount of time,” with the injury. He was replaced by RS freshman Chester Stewart, who tossed
3 interceptions in relief against Penn State. The Broncos, who have never lost to Temple and outscored the Owls
56-10 in last 2 meetings, have veteran Tim Hiller at the controls. Hiller has thrown for 5457 yds. and 54 TDs in his
23-game career and has completed 72% of his passes this season. WMU RB Brandon West has run for 403
yards in the Broncos’ last 3 games. WMU’s rush defense has allowed just 3.6 ypc, and the Broncos, who have
produced All-MAC pass rushers in recent seasons, will put pressure on Stewart (Penn State had 7 sacks against
the Owls last week). Temple’s defense, which ranks 114th against the run, isn’t in good health, either, as four
starters and a backup (including 3 LBs) have missed time with injury.
Late Score Forecast:
WESTERN MICHIGAN 30 - *Temple 13
10 *N.C. STATE over South Florida
Scouts report last week’s upset of undefeated East Carolina has done wonders for the confidence of the
Wolfpack players, reflecting the cumulative effects of the solid coaching of Tom O’Brien. N.C. State had been
giving signs of improvement last year, with victories in 4 of its last 6 games. Now that quick RS frosh QB Russell
Wilson is providing an improved passing dimension and 2007 top rusher Jamelle Eugene (667 YR LY) has
returned to the offense, the athletic NCS defense should find itself both better rested and with more to fight for.
The South Florida offense, lacking marquee rushers and long-distance threats, is too often overly dependent on
QB Matt Grothe to bail it out. Bulls 0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, and 2-6 last 8 as a traveler overall.
Late Score Forecast:
*N.C. STATE 23 - South Florida 21
10 ALABAMA over *Georgia
Alabama, with its sr. QB (John Parker Wilson) and its strength in “the pits,” is one of the few teams that figures
to be able to challenge loaded Georgia where it is vulnerable. The Crimson Tide returned four starters on their
O-line, led by future NFL LT Andre Smith (6-5, 330). And the deep Bama DL (including 6-5, 365-pound NT
Terrence Cody) figures to be a problem for the still-youthful Bulldog offensive line, which was re-shuffled when
LT Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season in August. South Carolina’s veteran defense slowed the Bulldog
juggernaut to just 14 points two weeks ago, and the Crimson Tide should have some success too. Frosh RB
Mark Ingram and blue-chip WR Julio Jones have given Nick Saban more punch on offense in 2007. The Red
Elephants haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points in Saban’s tenure.
Late Score Forecast:
ALABAMA 24 - *Georgia 20
10 *MICHIGAN over Wisconsin
Big Ten scouts tell us new, crafty HC Rich Rodriquez believes Michigan has greatly benefited from the bye week,
as it has given his squad a chance to get healthier (especially on OL), as well as spending additional time working
on techniques and fundamentals. Look for Wolverines’ improving RS frosh QB Threet (16 of 23 vs. Notre Dame)
to be afforded more time to connect with WRs Matthews & emerging frosh Odoms, now that more confident,
hotshot frosh RB McGuffie (131 YR in 25 tries vs. Irish) demands more attention from Wisconsin front 7.
Meanwhile, not so sure Badgers new QB Evridge will easily dissect the Wolverines secondary, particularly if top
RB P.J. Hill frustrated by tenacious UM stop unit once again (only 25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games vs. UM). And with
Wolverines’ speedy LB corps keeping close tabs on Badgers top target TE Beckum, UM primed to avoid 1st home
loss in series since 1994. Wiscy, which was fortunate to escape in 13-10 win at Fresno (Bulldogs missed 3
FGs), not so lucky in the boisterous Big House.
Late Score Forecast:
*MICHIGAN 23 - Wisconsin 20
10 *TAMPA BAY over Green Bay
Well, maybe replacing Brett Favre isn’t going to be as easy as it first seemed for Aaron Rodgers, who faced some
real pressure for the first time as a starter last week against Dallas, and couldn’t do much damage until outcome
was decided. It isn’t helping Rodgers that Green Bay infantry at less than 100% these days with Ryan Grant
slightly compromised by a sore hamstring. Things won’t get any easier at loud and distracting Raymond James
Stadium, where d.c. Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 schemes have frustrated many accomplished QBs (much less one
making only 4th career start). Moreover, must note the leadership rejuvenated vet QB Brian Griese (67 pass
attempts at Chicago!) now providing for Buc offense. Greater accumulation of edges rests with T.B., which
usually takes care of business as home chalk (7-2 last 9 in role).
Late Score Forecast:
*TAMPA BAY 30 - Green Bay 17
TOTALS: OVER (45½) in the Denver-Kansas City game—Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Denver offense (38 ppg) lighting things up with new spread
attack; Broncos have played three straight “overs”...UNDER (44½) in the Cleveland-Cincinnati game—Cleveland (9 ppg) hurting at receiver; Browns 8-0-
1 “under” last nine games.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (+8) at Iowa—Hawkeye offense limited by inconsistent play at QB; Northwestern HC Pat
Fitzgerald (a former standout Wildcat LB) is building a hard-nosed defense (11 ppg TY) in Evanston...OHIO STATE (-18½) vs. Minnesota—Buckeyes
already had the defense; frosh QB Pryor (4 TDP in his first start) should improve weekly as he boosts the offense...OKLAHOMA (-18) vs. Tcu—Sooners,
who were stunned in Norman in their opener in 2005 vs. the Horned Frogs with Paul Thompson at QB, now have revenge in mind with the prolific Sam
Bradford running OU’s no-huddle offense...NEW MEXICO STATE (+3½) vs. New Mexico—With Lobos’ Donovan Porterie gone for the season, QB edge in
this bitter rivalry goes to N.M. State’s pass-happy Chase Holbrook (5 TDP last week at UTEP) in Aggies first home game TY...WASHINGTON (+12) at
Dallas—Cowboy offense impressive, but Eagles showed Dallas pass defense still needs some work; new Redskin HC Jim Zorn has helped young QB
Jason Campbell get the ball to playmakers Moss, Randle El and Cooley.
_________________________
Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis
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#144462 - 09/23/08 09:40 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/23 to 9/29
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Pointwise
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 45 - Buffalo 20 - (4:00) -- As we've written before, the
Chips are back in their element. Despite LW's last-minute loss to Purdue, note
26-16 FD & 440-344 yd edges, & have to see patented bounceback. Are +114
pts ATS in last 12 league tilts. Bull QB Willy: 10 TDs, but suddenly no run "O".
Cincinnati 41 - AKRON 17 - (3:30) -- Pike for Grutza was certainly no detriment
for Bearcats in rout of Miami-O. He was 20-of-24 for 241 yds & 3 TDs. And
check overland domination in 2-of-3 games to date. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in Zip
tilts (by 42 pts TY), & Akron allowed 35.5 ppg in 43 outings previous to Army.
Purdue 23 - NOTRE DAME 14 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Irish still in search of an "O",
ranking 96th, with 203-16 RY deficit at MichSt. Clausen just 6/6 this yr, but
check 14.8 ppg "D" last 5 outings. Boilers in off last minute win (46-yd Sheets
run; he has 271 RYs last 2 weeks). And Painter has had his way with NoDame.
BALL STATE 50 - Kent State 20 - (12:00) -- Flashes now on 0-10 ATS slide by
145½ pts. In off 667-yd defensive effort vs Lafayette, & have allowed 46 ppg in
their 2 roadsters. BSt smoking with 4-0 start, with Lewis on fire (166 RYs & 4
TDs) in 24-pt cover at Indiana. And try Davis' 10 TD passes so far. Romper!
PENN STATE 41 - Illinois 17 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Lions just keep on doing it. Now
have a 211-44 pt edge for the year, with an enviously balanced "O": 1,182 RYs,
1,062 PYs, behind Royster, Clark, Green, etc. Illini are solid DD dogs (Wise
Points), but are down a notch from LY's Rose Bowl team, despite presence of
Juice at QB. Needed 27-yd fumble return to take Lafayette LW. Lions, easily.
Northern Illinois 48 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (1:00) -- Finally some "O" for
the Eagles after an 83-27 deficit in their first 2 lined games. But they lost their
last HG by 26 pts ATS, & have allowed 52, 39, 45, 42, 41, & 51 pts in their last
6 lined games. NIU nailed first win for Kill. Averaging 34 ppg & a solid run "D".
Colorado 20 - FLORIDA STATE 16 - (3:30 @ Jacksonville) -- 'Noles came from
57.5 ppg to just 3, in a week. Seven TOs vs Wake, including 5 INTs from QBs
Ponder & Richardson. Can't run, but just 48 RYpg "D", so CU Stewart (166
RYs vs WVa) will be tested. And Hawkins may open up overhead lanes. Tite.
Oregon 48 - WASHINGTON STATE 14 - (6:15) -- Duck QB situation worse by
the week, with Masoli (concussion) now hurting, after losing Roper. Still, a
227-38 RY edge in loss to Boise, along with 237 PYs. WSt lost its last 3 HGs
by 38, 18½, 49½ pts ATS, & has the nation's worst rushing "D". No other way.
THURSDAY
TULANE 37 - Smu 17 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Wave as this solid a chalk certainly a
rarity, but have allowed only 40 FDs in 3 games, & are 5-1 ATS by 67½ of late,
with Anderson & Moore providing the "O". Pony "D": 44 ppg last 10 contests,
including 55, 56, & 43 pts in last 3 RGs. Mitchell: 7 INTs last 2 games. Greenies.
So California 45 - OREGON STATE 13 - (9:00 - ESPN) -- Sanchez latest USC
Heisman candidate: 4 TDs in rout of OhioSt. Troy has a 1,149-523 yd edge in
the early going, with an 87-10 pt advantage. Now +78½ pts ATS in last 5 tilts.
Beavs off the schneid with 38-pt rout of hapless Hawaii, & Moevao has thrown
for 923 yds, but still no overland game, & chalk is 17-7 ATS in OregSt contests.
FRIDAY
LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 27 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Only one way to go when
UConn travels. Huskies are 0-4 ATS away of late by 59½ pts. Brown now at 716
yds & 10 TDs, but 'Ville woke up the ghosts with 38-pt, 578-yd effort vs KanSt,
led by Cantwell & Anderson (176 RYs, 3 TDs). And no TOs after 7 in previous 2.
SATURDAY
WAKE FOREST 44 - Navy 27 - (3:45) -- Wake in FlaSt/Clemson sandwich, &
still seeking an overland game, but opportunistic Deacs have 15 takeaways so
far, held 'Noles to 3 pts, & winning breeds winning. Mids beat Rutgers in final
2:06, but still allowing 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 tilts. Skinner the difference.
Western Michigan 31 - TEMPLE 20 - (2:00) -- A taste of reality for Owls in PSt
massacre. Check a 546-138 yd deficit in that 45-3 drubbing. Were 87½ pt
ahead of the spot previous 13, so competitive. WM has allowed 34 ppg in lined
games, but Hiller has thrown for 9 TDs past 2 wks, & had 300-yd edge yr ago.
WEST VIRGINIA 52 - Marshall 14 - (3:30) -- Implausible 17 pts combined for
Mounties last 2 wks (just 72 & 43 PYs), despite 311 RYs at Colo. Herd stuck
it to us LW, by snapping their 9-game road slide, in upset of SoMiss, with RB
Marshall motoring for 252 yds last 2 wks. But call angry Mounties in bounceback.
Pittsburgh 27 - SYRACUSE 10 - (12:00) -- No 100 RY games for McCoy as yet,
with underachieving Panthers in off mere 13 FD effort hosting Iowa. The dog is
17-3 ATS in Pitt games, with 2 of the 3 misses by 4 & 1½ pts, but the Orange
have a 342-114 pt deficit as a HD since LY. Just a 23-22 FD edge vs N'Eastern.
Michigan State 33 - INDIANA 17 - (12:00) -- Check Hoosiers losing to a MAC
team for first time in last 21 meetings, with 42-20 home embarrassment vs Ball
St. QB Lewis is a force: 166 RYs, 159 PYs LW, but that "D" not to be trusted.
Spartan RB Ringer has 483 yds last 2 wks, & 9 TDs for the yr. Rolled last yr.
IOWA 31 - Northwestern 20 - (12:00) -- The dog is 13-4 ATS in 'Cat games, &
note allowing just 4 RYs in LW's win over OhioU. But Bacher threw 4 INTs in
that one (also 3 vs Iowa LY), & RB Sutton is hurt again. Hawk RB Greene has
10.0, 6.0, & 6.4 ypr last 3 games, & Iowa has a 105-8 pt edge at home so far.
Virginia 22 - DUKE 20 - (12:00) -- Both teams had last week off, & it could not
have come at a better time for the 'Cavs, who have a 97-17 pt deficit in lined
affairs to date, along with a 600-63 RY deficit. Fourth straight HG for the Imps,
who've covered their last 3 games by 22½ pts. But still can't trust Duke as fav.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - North Carolina 20 - (12:00) -- Regrouping game for Tars,
who led VaTech 17-3 in final minute of the 3rd, only to lose 20-17. Had 121 yds
in penalties in that one, & now may have lost QB Yates. 'Canes were at 7.8
ppg, before 41 at TexA&M, behind QB Marve & RB Cooper. A bit of a payback.
FLORIDA 41 - Mississippi 13 - (12:30) -- Gators were outstatted in 30-6 win at
Tennessee, but no denying a rush "D", which has allowed only 60, 41, & 96 yds
thus far. And what a weapon KR James is, to complement the steady Tebow.
Reb QB Snead in off 4 INT effort in loss to Vandy, despite nearly doubling 'Dore
yardage. But no "O" TDs in that one for OleMiss, & Gators 7-1 ATS as chalks.
LSU 26 - Mississippi State 10 - (7:30) -- Don't like this one a bit. The Bengals
have covered 10-of-11 vs 'Dogs, & have allowed only 52, 44, & 70 RYs so far.
RB Scott rolled up 132 yds LW, but Lsu needed TD in final 1:03 to take Auburn.
Solid MSt "D" was skunked for 438 RYs in 38-7 loss to GaTech, & only 1 "O"
TD for 'Dogs in last 9 quarters. But Visitor is 17-4 ATS in Tiger games. 'Nother.
EAST CAROLINA 34 - Houston 27 - (3:30) -- Call this along lines of LY. The dog
is 5-0 ATS in Pirate games lately, by 77½ pts. Balanced "O", but in off OT loss
to NCSt. Coogs can't stop the run, but nearly climbed completely out of 17 &
21 pt holes last 2 wks. Eschewed tying FG LW. But Keenum: 16 TDs so far.
OHIO STATE 31 - Minnesota 17 - (12:00) -- Still no Wells for Bucks, but Pryor
(true frosh QB) lit a fire vs Troy with 4 TD passes. That one was just 14-10 in
the 4th. OSt now minus 69½ pts ATS last 6 outings. Minny at 4-0 with 13-2
TO edge. RB Eskridge (192 RYs, 5 TDs in 2 games) & Co may keep it close.
NEBRASKA 22 - Virginia Tech 19 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The last 4 lined games
involving the Hokies saw final scores of 24-21, 27-22, 20-17, & 20-17, so why
not another? Just 108th on "O", with QB Taylor in off 2 INT game. Neb: just
138 & 99 RYs first 2 tilts. Nowhere near Husker 48.3 ppg average last 4 HGs.
Stanford 27 - WASHINGTON 24 - ( 10:00) -- Rested Wash has heartbreaking
28-27 loss to BYU, bookended with 44-10 & 55-14 defeats. Can't run, & surely
can't stop anyone. Cards have a 128-54 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs, but held
SJSt to just 38 2nd half yds, & Gerhart is motoring (148 RYs LW). Mild upset.
CALIFORNIA 41 - Colorado State 14 - (6:00) -- Check the Bears' last 2 games:
49½ pt cover; 32-pt ATS loss. And note Cal coming from 391 RYs to just 38
(Best: from 200 to 25). Have to figure bounceback, as Rams in off nearly
blowing all of 21-pt lead, with endzone INT on final play. Are 5-21 ATS of late.
GEORGIA 20 - Alabama 19 - (7:45) -- What a "D"! Bulldogs have allowed just
22 RYs combined past 2 wks, against SoCaro & ArizSt. Moreno: another 149
yds, with QB Stafford & WR Green the perfect complements. Tide hammered
Arkies with the big play: 87, 25, 31, 62 yd plays, with 63 & 74 yd INT returns.
GA "D" obviously horse of a different color, but 'Bama stayed with 'em yr ago.
Tennessee 19 - AUBURN 16 - (3:30) -- Both of these combatants came up short
in SEC biggies LW, with the Tigers losing to LSU in the final 1:03, managing
just 70 RYs. Had allowed just 5 ppg entering that one, & rank 10th in the land
on "D". Vols outstatted Fla, in their 30-6 setback, being stopped at the 1 twice.
Were nicely balanced before that game, & bit of return to form. Call the upset.
MICHIGAN 27 - Wisconsin 22 - (3:30) -- That Badger overland game opened at
404 yds, but has managed just 158 & 154 since. But still perfect. Not that the
Wolverines are anything to write home about, with their 18.7 ppg "O". Six TOs
in loss to Irish. But Wisky has allowed 31, 38, 38, & 34 pts last 4 Big10 RGs.
CLEMSON 26 - Maryland 20 - (12:00) -- Well, Tiger RB Davis finally got going in
rout of SoCaroSt (3 TDs), but Harper managed 2 INTs in that 54-0 romp. Fact
is CU is 0-5 ATS lately, by 46 pts. The dog is 49½ pts ahead of the line in MD
games, with Terps nicely balanced all year (1 punt LW). They're worth a shot.
Fresno State 30 - UCLA 17 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Bruins at rock bottom now, with no
TDs the past 2 wks, along with a 90-10 pt deficit. Only 11 FDs vs 'Zona, with
just 81 PYs from Craft, & injuries taking their toll. FSt "D": from 10 ppg to 54
in LW's win at Toledo, stopping 2-pt OT try. But allowed only 304 yds vs Wisc.
Bowling Green 27 - WYOMING 17 - (4:00) -- A couple of teams plagued by the
TO. Eight in last 2 games for BG, which outplayed Boise 2 wks ago,& six by
the Cowboys in LW's 44-0 wipeout loss to BYU. WY ranks 115th in total "O",
& 113th in total "D", & is on unheard of 0-11-1 ATS run. Not about to buck it.
OKLAHOMA 34 - Tcu 17 - (7:00) -- In '05, Frogs pulled off upset (Wise Points),
& are loaded again. Check a 96-39 FD edge TY, allowing only 30.5 RYpg. Are
79½ pt ahead of the spot in their last 8 games, with QB Dalton leading a finely
balanced "D". But Okies are another matter, altogether. Bradford: 47-of-59 for
699 yds & 10 TDs in their 2 lined games to date. But can't jump in either way.
SOUTH CAROLINA 33 - Uab 14 - (7:00) -- Gamecocks very unimpressive in the
early going, despite a solid "D". Can't run, & another 2 INTs by Smelley LW,
leading Wofford by just 16-13 until the final 1:58. Blazers snapped 9-game
slide (AlabamaSt), with 223 PYs & 121 RYs from Webb. But 41 ppg "D" last 9.
TEXAS A&M 37 - Army 10 - (7:00) -- Ags in Miami/OklaSt sandwich, & hardly a
safe play here, as they've lost their first 2 HGs by 22 & 15 pts ATS, & can't run,
altho Johnson (for McGee: shoulder) has 6 TD passes last 2 games. First RG
for the Cadets, which have 85-20 pt deficit thus far, & 12 TOs in their 3 games.
South Florida 27 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 - (7:30) -- No Grothe TDs,
either running or passing, in narrow win over FlaInt (just 2nd time in 30 games),
the Bull "D" is smothering: 6, 12, 9 FDs in 3-of-4 games. 'Pack rode 3 Wilson
TD passes to upset of ECaro, so note 30 pts vs 29th rated Pirate "D". Pass.
UTEP 24 - Central Florida 21 - (8:00) -- Miners have unveiled a decent run "D"
(122 yds vs Texas; 37 yds LW), but are hurting at RB, & now QB Vittatoe is out
(ankle). Allowing 39.3 ppg, but the Knights have less than 200 RYs combined
in their past 2 games, & have been a conference road flop. Mildest of plays hr.
New Mexico 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 37 - (8:00) -- Lobos shellshocked off 56
pt, 606 yd defensive effort vs Tulsa, & now QB Porterie is hurting. Shootout LY,
with Holbrook's 437 PYs & 4 TDs, similar to his 329 PYs & 5 TDs in snapping
6-game losing skein LW. Lobos lost last 2 RGs by 37-0, 28-10, & 56-14 counts.
SAN DIEGO STATE 31 - Idaho 21 - (8:00) -- Worst of the worst here. SDiegoSt
stands at 0-3, with a 293-6 RY deficit in its last game, while managing only 104
RYs for the year. Allowing 41 ppg in last 5 lined games. Vandals 1-11 ATS, &
in off 356-84 RY deficit vs previously 0-3 UtahSt. Anyone remotely interested?
UNLV 33 - Nevada 27 - (10:00) -- Rebels in off a pair of 3-pt OT wins. Still no "D"
(32.6 ppg last 25 contests), but showing decent balance, behind RB Summers
& QB Clayton. Reno also defensive midgets, allowing 41.6 ppg in its last 10
outings, but note amassing 488 yds vs TexTech 2 wks back. Revenge takes it.
San Jose State 30 - HAWAII 20 - (12:05) -- Hate going against home team in
SJSt contests (a 293-92 pt deficit away since last yr). Held to minus 24 yds in
4th quarter at Stanford, but note QB Reed hitting his first 12 & first 16 passes
last 2 wks. 'Bows have 142-27 pt deficit in their last 3 lined games. Spartans.
TEXAS 49 - Arkansas 14 - (2:00) -- This one was moved back a couple of wks,
due to Hurricane Ike, but it makes little difference. Another 4 TDs for McCoy in
LW's drubbing of Rice, so he has set a school-record with 62, & is 63-of-81 for
the season. 'Horns have scored 59, 52, 52, 42, & 52 pts in their last 5 wins, &
that Arky "D" is ripe for the picking (39 ppg last 9). QB Dick: 3 INTs LW. Rout!
WEDNESDAY
BOISE STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00) -- Only way to go, as the Broncos
are a spectacular 19-3 ATS as conference HFs of <28 pts. Check QB Moore with
3 TDs & 386 yds in his first start (upset of powerful Oregon). That 227-38 RY
deficit may be cause for concern, but Tech won't to much denting of the Boise
"D". As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs have a 136-20 pt deficit in their last 3 RGs.
ADDED GAMES
KENTUCKY 31 - Western Kentucky 13
Arkansas State 23 - MEMPHIS 16
OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 20
TOLEDO 37 - Fla International 24
KANSAS STATE 28 - La-Lafayette 17
RICE 28 - North Texas 27
Florida Atlanta 21 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 20
_________________________
Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis
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#144463 - 09/23/08 09:43 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/23 to 9/29
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 46478
Loc: Time to play the Game
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GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES- COLLEGE ANALYSIS
LOUISVILLE by 14 over Connecticut (Friday, September 26)
PURDUE by 8 over Notre Dame
WASHINGTON by 14 over Stanford
PENN STATE by 25 over Illinois
***LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 17—UConn brings nation’s leading
rusher in jr. D. Brown (179 ypg & 10 TDs), as well as sound, veteran defense.
However, Louisville’s own stop unit much improved, allowing only 4 meaningful
TDs in first 3 games. Emergence of RS frosh RB V. Anderson (176 YR & 3 TDs
last week) opening airways for rifle-armed Card sr. QB Cantwell, who’s a much
more highly-regarded pro prospect than Husky counterpart Lorenzen. Cards
avenge LY’s upset loss. TV—ESPN2
(07-CONN. 21-Lvl. 17...L.20-16 C.39/175 L.31/93 L.29/43/3/228 C.9/18/0/130 C.2 L.0)
(07-CONN. +3 21-17 06-LVL. -28' 48-17 05-Lvl. -15 30-20...SR: Louisville 3-1)
***Purdue 28 - NOTRE DAME 20—Notre Dame reverted to recent form,
as loss to Michigan State sank Irish spread record to 10-21-1 last 32 under
Charlie Weis. Purdue bounced back from disappointing OT-loss to Oregon with
win against C. Michigan. Boilers own QB edge with Curtis Painter (9517 YP &
57 TDP career) over soph Jimmy Clausen (2 ints. in each game this season).
Big edge for Purdue is sr. RB Kory Sheets (5.7 ypc; scored 2 TDs in 6 straight
games) who ran for 141 yards last season against the Irish. TV—NBC
(07-PURDUE 33-N. Dame 19...P.27-21 P.42/119 N.26/49 N.34/52/2/377 P.22/37/2/252 P.0 N.1)
(07-PURDUE -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21 05-Und +3' 49-28...SR: Notre Dame 51-26-2)
***WASHINGTON 31 - Stanford 17—Creative blitz and stunt packages
devised by veteran Stanford d.c Ron Lynn were enough to impede San Jose QB
Kyle Reed last week, but similar aggressiveness might not work vs. punishing
Jake Locker and UW spread that rolled for 388 YR vs. Tree LY. And Jim
Harbaugh reportedly thinking very hard about using true frosh Nathan Luck at
QB if uneven performances of starter Pritchard (just 1 TDP) continue. Do-or-die
time for Ty Willingham, who needs immediate course correction or risks
impeachment and removal from office by angry Husky Nation.
(07-Wash. 27-STAN. 9...W.31-14 W.63/388 S.26/116 W.16/32/1/151 S.17/31/0/137 W.1 S.1)
(07-Washington -3 27-9 06-Stanford +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-34-4
***PENN STATE 42 - Illinois 17—Cantankerous Penn State HC Joe
Paterno called his team’s 45-3 romp over Temple “sloppy” and said he wasn’t
happy with the effort. Mind you, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 and have outscored
the opposition by an average of 53-10! HC Ron Zook of rested Illinois has
expressed worries as well, but his issues are real concerns. Illini QB Juice
Williams was held to just 157 yds. total offense last season by Nittany Lions,
who have the guns to make revenge work. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ILL. 27-Penn St. 20...P.18-17 I.38/216 P.36/129 P.21/38/3/298 I.11/27/2/120 I.0 P.1)
(07-ILL. +3 27-20 06-PSU -18 26-12 05-Psu -18 63-10...SR: Penn State 12-3)
*TULANE 37 - Smu 13—Although substantial favorite an exceedingly
strange pointspread role for long-suffering Tulane, inclined to support resurgent
host following last week’s satisfying win over La.-Monroe. Squalid SMU “stop”
unit (nation’s-worst 531 ypg) can’t stop anyone, and Mustangs have scored just
2 TDs in last 2 games behind misfiring true frosh QB Mitchell (10 ints. TY).
Green Wave has enough rushing and defense (only 223 ypg—No. 8 in country!)
to bludgeon visitor into submission.
(07-Tulane 41-SMU 34 (OT)...S.23-21 T.50/361 S.32/84 S.28/37/1/354 T.13/24/0/160 T.1 S.1)
(07-Tulane +6 41-34 (OT) 06-Smu -3 33-28 05-Tulane -3' 31-10...SR: Tulane 11-5)
*Southern Cal 37 - OREGON STATE 10—Granted, Corvallis has been a
real minefield lately for SC, which has failed to cover last 3 trips to Reser
Stadium and lost 2 of those outright (including 33-31 shocker in ‘06). But can’t
envision erratic OSU QB Moevao doing too much business vs. Pete Carroll’s
latest defensive monster that’s loaded with future NFL first-round draftees. And
since rebuilt Beaver “D” not yet generating the pressure of recent OSU stop
units, Mark Sanchez should again have plenty of time to locate his various
weapons downfield. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-S. CAL 24-Ore. St. 3...S.16-12 S.36/100 O.37/91 S.20/34/0/187 O.11/28/1/85 S.1 O.0)
(07-USC -16' 24-3 06-OSU +10' 33-31...SR: Southern Cal 58-9-4)
WAKE FOREST 32 - Navy 20—Swarming Demon Deacon defense has 50
takeaways in last 16 games (!) and holds MAJOR edge over smallish, slowish
Navy stop unit. Still, no surprise if tough-minded Middies hang inside roomy
impost, as Wake just 4-15 vs. line last 19 laying more than a TD. TV—ESPNU
(07-W. For. 44-NAVY 24...W.28-23 N.67/328 W.44/196 W.22/28/0/213 N.4/12/0/39 W.0 N.3)
(07-Wake Forest -3 44-24...SR: Wake Forest 6-2)
Western Michigan 23 - TEMPLE 16—Western, with 17 returning starters
and veteran leaders in nearly every platoon, saw its advantage grow when
Temple QB DiMichele suffered a shoulder injury at Penn State, with RS frosh
backup Stewart throwing three interceptions. Bronco QB Hiller (27 of 31, 5 TDP
in 41-7 walkover vs. Tenn. Tech), RB West, WR Simmons, and FS Delmas (3
ints.) too much for Owls.
(07-W. MICH. 16-Temple 3...W.19-6 W.40/162 T.27/54 W.24/39/1/276 T.6/25/0/92 W.0 T.1)
(07-WMU -12 16-3 06-WMU -30 41-7 05-Wmu -3' 19-16...SR: Western Michigan 6-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 35 - Marshall 24—New WV HC Bill Stewart already under
heavy fire in Morgantown, as Mountaineers off back-to-back losses for first time
since 2004. Meanwhile, hungry instate rival Marshall catching a little updraft
lately. Host can still hit “home runs” with star QB Pat White & speedy RB
Devine. But confident RS frosh triggerman Cann helping Herd attack strike nice
balance last couple weeks.
(07-W. Va. 48-MAR. 23...W.27-17 W.52/362 M.32/121 M.20/32/0/266 W.13/18/0/149 W.0 M.1)
(07-Wvu -24' 48-23 06-WVU -22 42-10...SR: West Virginia 7-0)
Pittsburgh 32 - SYRACUSE 9—With tough trip to South Florida up next, Pitt
probably content to ride star soph RB McCoy & HUGE defensive edge to any SU
win. However, that’s not reason enough to back awful Orange, who have
dropped their last 7 as Carrier Dome dog by average score of 46-16.
(07-PITT 20-Syr. 17...P.16-15 P.41/141 S.31/30 S.19/37/0/235 P.21/30/0/153 P.0 S.0)
(07-PITT -13 20-17 06-Pitt -7 21-11 05-PITT -12' 34-17...SR: EVEN 30-30-3)
Michigan State 34 - INDIANA 20—Indiana defense couldn’t handle run/
pass Ball St. combo of Lewis and Davis last week, and MSU has the potential
of giving Hoosiers the same headaches. Spartans have played a tougher
schedule, has won 3 straight, and QB Brian Hoyer has yet to find his best form
(45%, just 1 TD pass). Also, WR Mark Dell (24 ypc) is developing into a go-to
receiver and Javon Ringer is 2nd in the nation in rushing. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis
was just 11 of 25 passing with 0 TDs and 2 ints. vs. Ball State, and 95 of his 159 YP
came on two completions to Andrew Means. TV-ESPN2
(07-MICH. ST. 52-Ind. 27...M.28-9 M.67/368 I.17/22 M.20/23/0/190 I.13/19/0/171 M.1 I.2)
(07-MSU -3' 52-27 06-IND. +7 46-21 05-MSU -18 46-15...SR: Michigan State 40-14-2)
IOWA 26 - Northwestern 23—Although off to a slow start, Northwestern QB
Bacher still has an edge over Iowa counterparts, Christensen and Stanzi,
neither of whom has played well enough to win the job. Hawkeye defense
wasn’t quite as dominating last week at Pitt, and visitor has covered last 3 in
series. NU RB Sutton’s injury that forced him out of Ohio game didn’t appear
serious, but sr. Conteh is a quality backup. Wildcat defense making plays (rank
4th in sacks & TFLs).
(07-Iowa 28-N’WESTERN 17...N.24-18 N.33/116 I.34/70 I.21/36/0/299 N.28/55/3/277 I.1 N.0)
(07-Iowa +1' 28-17 06-Nwu +20 21-7 05-NWU +3 28-27...SR: Iowa 46-20-3)
DUKE 31 - Virginia 20—Sure, downtrodden Duke hasn’t been favored in an
ACC game since 2002 (and they lost that one). But these programs headed in
different directions. Confidence growing at Durham under new HC Cutcliffe,
while Charlottesville insiders insist longtime Virginia mentor Groh on his way
out. Little chance Cavs’ inexperienced QBs able to trade points with Duke’s QB
Lewis (26 TDP, only 10 ints. last 1+ seasons). TV—ESPNU
(07-VA. 24-Duke 13...V.17-12 V.34/133 D.34/84 V.22/32/0/191 D.15/35/1/145 V.2 D.0)
(07-VIRGINIA -18 24-13 06-Virginia -5' 37-0 05-VIRGINIA -24' 38-7...SR: Virginia 32-27)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 28 - North Carolina 27—Check status of UNC starting QB
T.J. Yates (ankle). If Yates is able to make post, then Tar Heels have enough
weapons to inflict some damage on Miami’s speedy defense. If he’s not,
resourceful Hurricane RS frosh QB Marve likely to lead host to more comfy
victory. TV—ESPN
(07-N. CAR. 33-Miami 27...M.20-18 N.46/183 M.36/109 M.17/33/4/302 N.15/23/0/218 N.1 M.0)
(07-UNC +7 33-27 06-MIAMI -19 27-7 05-MIAMI -20' 34-16...SR: North Carolina 6-5)
FLORIDA 42 - Mississippi 10—Ole Miss has sprung a couple upsets (‘99 &
‘00) and took UF to wire (in ‘08) in last 3 meetings, but that only keeps Gators
focused for SEC opener in The Swamp, where they are 7-1 vs. spread last 8.
Rebel QB Snead, who had his confidence shaken in 4-int. effort in Vandy loss,
won’t have it restored vs. smothering Gator “D” that hasn’t allowed a meaningful
TD in ‘08! UF’s star-studded cast (RB Moody had 55 YR in 9 carries vs.
Tennessee) taking pressure off Mr. Tebow (only 126 total yds. vs. Vols!).
(07-Fla. 30-MISS. 24...F.28-18 F.45/246 M.21/80 M.19/32/1/310 F.20/34/0/261 F.0 M.0)
(07-Florida -23 30-24...SR: Mississippi 11-10-1)
*LSU 37 - Mississippi State 3—Though LSU could suffer some letdown
following thrilling, last-minute 26-21 victory at Auburn, want no part of
regressing 1-3 MSU, which has failed to score a TD over last 8 Qs. Streak
continues here. Meanwhile, Tigers rapidly-developing RS frosh QB Lee will
take full advantage of explosive arsenal (RB Scott had 132 YR vs. Auburn!) vs.
wound-licking Bulldog defense that allowed a whopping 500 yds. in Georgia
Tech blowout loss. History repeats itself (Looking for an Angle). TV—ESPN2
(07-Lsu 45-MISS. ST. 0...L.22-9 L.50/198 M.26/10 L.14/22/0/149 M.14/33/6/136 L.0 M.1)
(07-Lsu -18' 45-0 06-LSU -33' 48-17 05-Lsu -14' 37-7...SR: LSU 65-33-3)
Northern Illinois 34 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 21—EMU “D” and special
teams have regressed this season, and the Eagles have yielded 134 points in
last 3 games. NIU is scoring 34 ppg, and the visitor has covered 7 straight in
this series. NIU QB Harnish sat out Indiana St. game with a foot sprain, and
Huskie HC Jerry Kill went with former starter Nicholson (on the mend from
shoulder surgery) & RS frosh DeMarcus Grady effectively.
(07-E. Mich. 21-N. ILL. 19...N.19-18 E.41/189 N.36/184 E.16/24/0/189 N.20/28/1/160 E.0 N.0)
(07-Emu +13' 21-19 06-Niu -7' 27-0 05-NIU -21 24-8...SR: Northern Illinois 22-14-2)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31 - Buffalo 29—Could this be a MAC title game
preview? Buffalo’s continuing improvement under Turner Gill suggests that
might be a possibility, and doubt Bulls will flinch at prospect of facing productive
CMU QB LeFevour after battling Chase Daniel and Mizzou’s high-octane attack
last week. Pliable Chippewa “D” should present plenty of opportunities for UB
QB Willy and big-play WR/KR E. Jackson (3 TDs vs. Mizzou) to make things
interesting. (06-Central Michigan -15 55-28...SR: Central Michigan 3-1)
Cincinnati 30 - AKRON 17—Since Cincy’s strong-armed 6-6 jr. QB Pike (20 of
24 for 241 yds. vs. Miami-Ohio) has picked up where injured Grutza left off, Bearcats
fast, sure-handed WRs Goodman & Gilyard (combined 41 catches, 6 TDs) should
repeatedly burn rebuilt Akron 2ndary in Zips 1st acid test of year. So, support
profitable Cincy (17-8-1 vs. spread since ‘06) making relatively-short 238-mile trip
to Rubber Bowl. (06-CINCINNATI -6 20-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
EAST CAROLINA 35 - Houston 29—Pirates trying to shake lingering
emotional effects of last week’s OT loss at N.C. State that quashed BCS hopes
stoked by ECU’s early upsets of Va. Tech & W. Virginia. Meanwhile, Houston
desperate to get off the schneid after 3 straight losses, and quick-trigger QB
Case Keenum (16 TDP, only 4 ints.) gives Cougars good chance to take this
one the distance.
(07-E. Car. 37-HOU. 35...H.23-14 E.40/173 H.46/139 H.30/41/2/345 E.11/26/1/156 E.1 H.1)
(07-East Carolina +13' 37-35...SR: East Carolina 5-3)
OHIO STATE 41 - Minnesota 9—Hype over Tyrelle Pryor’s ascension to the
starting QB slot last week against Troy and his 4 TD passes can’t mask the fact
that the Trojans outgained the Buckeyes in Columbus, and OSU led just 14-10
in the 4th Q. That being said, 4-0 Minnesota is jumping way up in class after
facing lighter weight competiton, and the Gopher pass defense ranks last in the
Big Ten after finishing 115th in the nation last season. Tressel’s Buckeyes
continue dominance over Gophers.
(07-Ohio St. 30-MINN. 7...O.24-15 O.47/250 M.29/45 M.27/44/2/232 O.18/29/0/209 O.1 M.0)
(07-Osu -23' 30-7 06-OSU -27 44-0 05-Osu -4 45-31...SR: Ohio State 40-7)
*NEBRASKA 23 - Virginia Tech 20—VT traveling a long way to play the
better-balanced Huskers. Hokies managed comeback win last week at North
Carolina despite 2 ints. by QB T. Taylor and with the benefit of an injury to Hokie
QB Yates. Nebraska OL bolstered by the return of sr. starter Christensen from
suspension. Bo Pelini has improved the NU defense, but his young LBs will be
tested by VT’s youthful, but talented, backfield. Hokies 11-2 last 13 as dog.
TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Nebraska 1-0)
CALIFORNIA 37 - Colorado State 19—Can the Mountain West play Larry
Holmes to the Pac-10’s Leon Spinks one more time? Hard to envision Cal
meeting same fate as befell various conference brethren, but still not sure
Golden Bears can run away and hide from better-than-advertised CSU bunch
that’s getting surprising production from QB Farris and rediscovered
semblance of infantry diversion last week vs. Houston. Cal a notorious
underachiever as DD chalk (3-13-1 last 17 in role).
(07-Cal. 34-CSU 28...Co.22-14 Ca.31/245 Co.42/157 Co.21/30/2/301 Ca.19/29/0/146 Ca.0 Co.1)
(07-California -14 34-28...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*GEORGIA 26 - Alabama 23—Though previously top-ranked UGA
demonstrating it didn’t deserve to drop in polls with its resounding 38-7
thrashing in Tempe, still ready to “take” with big, fast & athletic Bama, owning
plenty of playmakers on both sides of ball (school-record 2 ints. returned for
TDs vs. Arkansas). Tide’s battle-tested, now-mistake-free QB J.P. Wilson
(only 1 int.) keeps pace with Dawg counterpart Stafford, working play-action
vs. UGA defense that hasn’t faced such a deep, formidable ground assault
all year. Saban’s crew tough to beat by margin, with last 8 losses by 7 pts.
or fewer. TV-ESPN
(07-Georgia 26-ALA. 23 (OT)...G.20-18 A.35/164 G.40/153 G.19/36/2/224 A.17/35/0/185 G.0 A.1)
(07-Georgia +3' 26-23 (OT)...SR: Alabama 35-25-4)
AUBURN 20 - Tennessee 17—Not counting on UT winning the SEC East as
it did LY following 1-2 start. But do expect proud Vols to bounce back with
fiercely-competitive effort vs. Auburnbunch not easily getting “off the mat”
following last-minute loss vs. LSU. UT HC Fulmer unhappy with QB Crompton,
but seriously doubt unfinished Tiger QB Todd dissects tight-covering Vol
2ndary (7 ints.; Florida had just 96 YP). AU still has ball security issues (9 TOs
last 3 games). Tigers just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 on the Plains, while resilient
Vols 4-0-1 vs. spread last 5 following SU loss. TV-CBS
(DNP...SR: Auburn 24-21-3)
Wisconsin 19 - MICHIGAN 17—Wisconsin HC Bielema spent the team’s
bye week expanding the playbook, getting the team healthy, and discussing the
merits of “cheddar vs. Swiss” cheese on The Big Ten Network. Michigan
counterpart Rodriguez had no time for TV revelry, as he had work to do. The
Wolverine defense has played well when not pressured by turnovers or poor
field position. Doubt now-focused Michigan will oblige Badgers by
committing 6 turnovers, as UM did vs. ND. Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill hasn’t
had much success against the vet Wolverine run defense (25 carries, 78 YR
in 2 games), so Badger QB Evridge will be forced to make some plays in a
very hostile environment. TV-ABC
(07-WIS. 37-Mich. 21...W.24-17 W.52/232 M.25/47 M.14/41/3/273 W.14/28/0/245 W.1 M.0)
(07-WIS. +2' 37-21 06-MICH. -14 27-13 05-WIS. +3 23-20...SR: Michigan 48-12-1)
CLEMSON 28 - Maryland 24—Since Maryland’s previously-meandering
offense now finding end zone with regularity, eager to take points with Terps.
Mobile backup QB Portis (originally at Florida; 9 carries for 98 yards last week)
an added dimension for humming UM attack, while Clemson QB Harper (only 3
TDP & 4 ints. in first 4 games; 27 & 6 LY) developing “happy feet” behind Tigers’
young, rebuilt OL.
(07-Clem. 30-MARY. 17...C.27-18 C.56/249 M.32/97 M.19/31/1/217 C.20/26/0/179 C.1 M.1)
(07-Clem. -3' 30-17 06-Mary. +18' 13-12 05-Clem. +2 28-24...SR: Clemson 30-24-1)
Fresno State 24 - UCLA 12—After second straight TD-less performance
last week vs. Arizona, banged-up UCLA “O” and QB Craft looking about as
uncomfortable as Barack Obama in recent interview with Bill O’Reilly. As long
as Bruin attack continues to flatline, have no problem supporting the far-greater
offensive competence demonstrated by Fresno, which lives for these sort of
dates and will have plenty of support at Rose Bowl (as many as 20,000 “Red
Wavers” could make the trip!). REG'L TV—ABC (DNP...SR: UCLA 6-1)
Bowling Green 24 - WYOMING 13—The last time Wyo covered a
pointspread (9-15-07 at Boise), Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were
considered frontrunners in the presidential race! And with HC Joe Glenn’s
future job prospects in Laramie not looking much better than Rudy or Hillary’s
dashed White House dreams, prefer BGSU bunch that MAC sources say used
“bye” week to tune-up “O” (expect more runs from QB Sheehan in Falc spread
option). New Cowboy o.c. Cole might be readying his résumé, too, with
redesigned Poke “O” scoring paltry 10 ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
Oregon 38 - WASHINGTON STATE 15—We could excuse Mike Bellotti for
asking Dan Fouts if he has any eligibility remaining after yet another Oregon QB
(juco Masoli) was KO’d last week, forcing true frosh Darron Thomas into the fray
vs. Boise. And Wazzu’s Paul Wulff might be down to his third option at QB (RS
frosh Lobbestael) after starter Lopina & backup Rogers went down for the count
vs. Portland State. But Coug “D” still by far the most-vulnerable platoon on field,
so need more evidence than last week’s smackdown of Jerry Glanville’s Vikings
that WSU stop unit has plugged its many leaks.
(07-ORE. 53-Wash. St. 7...O.30-17 O.51/213 W.30/63 O.26/35/0/338 W.15/36/2/251 O.1 W.1)
(07-ORE. -19' 53-7 06-WSU +3' 34-23 05-Ore. -4 34-31...SR: Oregon 40-38-7)
*OKLAHOMA 35 - Tcu 10—Sooners well remember TCU’s 17-10 upset in
Norman three years ago, so expect special effort from OU team averaging 55
ppg (eased up) in its new no-huddle offense, directed excellently by Sam
Bradford (79%, 12 TDs, 2 ints.). Yes, points will not come so easy vs. the
respected Horned Frog defense. But TCU will discover its ground game mostly
grounded. (05-Tcu +25 17-10...SR: Oklahoma 6-4)
*SOUTH CAROLINA 42 - Uab 10—Realize USC mastermind Spurrier (says
he might switch to hotshot QB Garcia) still seeking answers on laboring offense,
but good chance he finally finds solutions vs. sieve-like UAB defense that’s
permitted an eye-popping 1703 yds. in 3 non-covering losses so far. Look for
swift, sturdy ‘Cock defense to spin a web around Blazers fleet-footed QB Webb
after facing highly-mobile SEC triggermen Nickson & Stafford in early SEC
battles. (DNP...SR: South Carolina 1-0)
TEXAS A&M 46 - Army 13—New A&M coach Mike Sherman is forcing a few
square pegs of the old Aggie offense into the round holes required by his prostyle
attack. Even so, A&M’s 6-5 soph QB Jerrod Johnson has 6 TDP in two
games relieving Stephen McGee, while Army looking toward the Pentagon for
help after just 223 yards and 7 completions last week vs. Akron. (06-TX A&M -27'
28-24 at San Antonio...SR: Tx. A&M 2-1)
BALL STATE 41 - Kent State 20—Could Ball State really be a stealth BCS
contender? Well, Cards’ prospects of running the table are still in order after
romping past Indiana. And even without star WR Love (scary cervical fracture
vs. Hoosiers), Nate Davis & Co. should have no trouble outscoring sagging KSU
bunch that allowed UL-Lafayette to gain 3/8 of a mile last week and has proven
poorer value to its investors than some financial services stocks (Flashes no
covers last 10 on board!)
(06-BALL STATE -3 30-6...SR: Ball State 22-17-4)
*South Florida 23 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20—Plenty of “buy” signs
flashing for Wolfpack during last week’s upset OT home win over E. Carolina.
RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (3 TDP) is emerging as heady field general, hardcharging
RBs Andre Brown & Jamelle Eugene are finally healthy, and athletic
defense hung tough even though it was missing 2 top players. Bulls’ have
burned backers’ money in 6 of last 8 away from Tampa.
(05-NO. CAROLINA ST. -4 14-0 (Meineke Car Care Bowl)...SR: N.C. St. 1-0) TV—ESPNU
FLORIDA STATE 23 - Colorado 13—Last week’s grisly home loss to Wake
(FSU had 7 giveaways & 139 yards in penalties!) proves early talk of Seminoles’
imminent return to grace was fantasy. On plus side, venerable d.c. Mickey
Andrews’ stop unit looked plenty gnarly and welcomes back a handful of
suspended starters vs. Colorado. Buff QB Hawkins’ lax ball security a major
concern against hard-hitting FSU. (at Jacksonville, FL)
(07-Fla. St. 16-COLO. 6...C.21-10 F.37/95 C.25/M27 C.34/54/2/306 F.8/18/0/126 F.0 C.0)
(07-Florida State -4' 16-6...SR: Florida State 2-0) TV-ABC
*Ucf 24 - UTEP 17—Though UCF (led 7-3 at H!) forgot to show up following
intermission of 34-7 setback at Boston College, still not endorsing floundering
UTEP, which has dropped 9 straight games and might be down several key
offensive starters, including QB Vittatoe (see Ticker). Knights developing dual
threat, 6-3 jr. QB Greco, who was benched after throwing 3 ints. vs. Eagles,
should bounce back vs. inviting Miner defense yielding 43 ppg over last 11.
(07-UCF 36-Utep 20...C.27-17 C.55/213 T.19/28 T.20/37/2/292 C.19/28/1/267 C.0 T.0)
(07-UCF -20' 36-20...SR: UCF 1-0)
*NEW MEXICO STATE 34 - New Mexico 29—Now that QB Holbrook (5
TDP vs. UTEP) back in cockpit of NMSU Air Raid after threatened benching by
HC Mumme, don’t mind giving Aggies a whirl vs. hated UNM. After all, Rocky
Long’s defenses haven’t exactly slowed Holbrook (945 YP & 8 TDP last 2 vs.
Lobos), and UNM will have to go with backup QB Gruner after starter Porterie
KO’d in last week’s humbling loss at Tulsa.
(07-UNM 44-Nms 34...S.30-20 U.39/154 S.28/108 S.47/64/2/473 U.18/25/0/342 U.1 S.0)
(07-UNM -7 44-34 06-Unm -6 34-28 05-UNM -22 38-21...SR: New Mexico 65-28-5)
*SAN DIEGO STATE 33 - Idaho 16—Which is the lesser of these two evils?
A cautious vote for SDSU, whose RS frosh QB Lindley at least demonstrated
some competence at Notre Dame (we won’t mention subsequent effort at San
Jose). And even James Carville would be hard-pressed to put a positive spin
on anemic Idaho bunch that’s on 1-11 pointspread run and absorbed vicious
beating vs. Utah State (the Aggies, not the Utes) last week. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*Nevada 27 - UNLV 23—True, UNLV off to its most positive start in many
years (3 wins already exceed victory total of each of Mike Sanford’s previous 3
teams!). But we’re accustomed to seeing similar encouraging early efforts from
Rebs, and it’s worth noting that losses to Nevada in each of the last three
campaigns have sent UNLV seasons spinning out of control. Wolf Pack “D”
won’t be stretched as it was in recent outings vs. Big XII heavyweights Texas
Tech & Mizzou, and Rebel “D” was burned badly the last time it saw a QB
(Utah’s Brian Johnson) as mobile as Nevada’s Kaepernick.
(07-NEV. 27-Unlv 20...U.24-21 U.39/205 N.35/128 N.20/38/1/330 U.18/40/1/249 N.0 U.0)
(07-NEVADA -3' 27-20 06-Nevada -3' 31-3 05-NEVADA +1' 22-14...SR: Nevada 18-15)
*San Jose State 27 - HAWAII 20—Greg McMackin’s rebuilt Hawaii Red Gun
about as similar to June Jones’ previous editions as Sean Hannity’s political
views are to those of Alan Colmes. And with QB Graunke possibly
compromised by hand injury, Warriors won’t rediscover their old scoring magic
anytime soon. Not sure undersized UH “D” can blitz SJS QB Reed into submission
as did Stanford last week, and Spartans’ shutdown CBs Owens & Francies will
come in handy vs. Red Gun.
(07-Hawaii 42-SJS 35 (OT)...H.34-18 H.26/56 S.25/42 H.44/75/4/545 S.27/47/3/302 H.0 S.1)
(07-Hawaii -17 42-35 (OT) 06-HAWAII -25 54-17 05-Hawaii -6 45-38...SR: EVEN 15-15-
ADDED GAMES
*KENTUCKY 29 - Western Kentucky 10—In 1st-ever meeting between
these two, lean to excited WKU squad that has enough offensive skill to sneak
inside number vs. nicked-up UK team (key LB M. Johnson & DT Lumpkin
doubtful) that still has issues at WR (too many drops & incorrect routes,
according to coaches) & STs (kicker Seiber missed 4 of 6 FGs vs. MTS).
Wildcats, who narrowly escaped vs. M. Tenn. St., have huge lookahead toward
Bama next week. (FIRST MEETING)
Arkansas State 33 - MEMPHIS 27—Sure, Memphis in double-revenge
mode after dominating cross-river rival ASU for years. However, current reality
finds Red Wolves holding substantially stronger hand. Visitor’s irrepressible jr.
QB Leonard and much deeper well of defensive resolve will trump top-notch
Tiger WR corps.
(07-ASU 35-Mem. 31...A.24-17 M.45/177 A.39/134 A.16/37/0/255 M.12/25/0/218 A.2 M.0)
(07-ARKANSAS ST. -4' 35-31 06-Arkansas St. +9 26-23...SR: Memphis 27-22-5)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 17—It’s payback time for OSU, which
remembers Troy’s boisterous celebration LY after the Trojans whupped the
Cowboys 41-23 in Alabama. State defense still has a few questions, but don’t look
for the Cowboy offense, led by heady jr. Zac Robinson, to let up. OSU (bye week
following Sept. 13 rout vs. Mo. St.) has extra time to prep for youthful Troy offense.
(07-TROY 41-Osu 23...T.29-20 O.38/241 T.48/174 T.34/49/1/388 O.18/37/2/191 T.1 O.3)
(07-TROY +10 41-23...SR: Troy 1-0)
*TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 20—Stark contrast in offensive
production for these two teams, as FIU ranks last in scoring and total offense
while Toledo scores 37 ppg & generates 396 ypg. Would draw the line at 3 TDs
as defense-shy Rockets have potential lookahead to homecoming vs. MAC foe
Ball State up next. (FIRST MEETING)
KANSAS STATE 48 - La.-Lafayette 20—Clever QB Michael Desormeaux
and Louisiana offense must be respected. But undersized Cajun defense (633
yards at So. Miss) should be just what the doctor ordered for K-State offense
after its spotty Wednesday play at Louisville. Juco RB Keithen Valentine should
be of more help to QB Freeman, while HC Prince’s STs already have 4 TDs TY.
(DNP...SR: Kansas State 2-0)
*RICE 42 - North Texas 27—After being manhandled by big, bad Texas,
Rice & star QB Clement will welcome shot at little, sad North Texas. Very
measured vote to dog, however, based on belief that Mean Green attack can
land some shots of its own against wounded Owl defense.
(DNP...SR: North Texas 1-0)
WRITE-IN GAME
TEXAS 38 - Arkansas 16—Youthful Razorbacks (4 ints.) humiliated 49-14
last week by ascending Alabama. But Arkansas always extra-focused vs.
Texas, whose early schedule of Florida Atlantic, UTEP & Rice has been none too
testing. UT and Colt McCoy will get their win, but humbled Hogs will fight all the way.
(DNP...SR: Texas 55-21) TV-ABC
_________________________
Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis
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#144464 - 09/23/08 09:48 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/23 to 9/29
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
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WINNING POINTS
****BEST BET
ALABAMA over GEORGIA* by 10
These Bulldogs provided us with a nice win near the top of these pages last week,
as expected physically dominating an Arizona State team that is soft in the trenches.
It was the type of showcase that was set up to make them look better than they
really are, and they come away with plenty of public support, maintaining their #3
spot in the polls and looking like real championship contenders, with a pair of
Heisman Trophy candidates in Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford to boot.
But all is not well in Athens. That young OL was dominated so badly at South
Carolina two weeks ago that Mark Richt made a slew of changes, and while it was
more than enough to push around a Pac 10 opponent, it is an entirely different
story against a physical Alabama defensive front. And while most road underdogs
in this price range are viewed as to whether they can hang in the game or not, the
Crimson Tide will be coming to win, and believing that they can. Despite the fact
that they were only in the fourth game of the Nick Saban playbook they were every
bit the match of Georgia in a 26-23 overtime defeat in Tuscaloosa LY, which tells
us much about how even the talent is between these programs. Now the Tide are
much better settled into their schemes, which means not just stopping people but
getting out and making big plays as well (two interception returns for touchdowns,
along with a punt return and a blocked punt for scores). Their 328-92 rushing
dominance at Arkansas is most rare on the SEC road, and they will not go down
easily, if at all. ALABAMA 24-14.
***BEST BET
FLORIDA* over MISSISSIPPI by 5
When the public looks at the scores that Florida has put up, a combined 112-19
over Hawaii, Miami F. and Tennessee, it is easy to buy into the notion that the
Gators are rolling, and that Tim Tebow is making another serious run at the
Heisman. That is not the case at all, however. And the flip side of this equation is
that Ole Miss could just as easily be 4-0 as 2-2, with some bitter bounces of the
ball leading to excruciating close losses to Wake Forest and Vanderbilt. So what
does that leave us with here? A line that is projecting a gap that is much wider than
the true realities between these teams. Florida benefitted from a +6 turnover ratio
vs. Hawaii, getting two touchdowns on interception returns, and another on a
punt return. Against Miami the Gators only led 9-3 into the fourth quarter, netting
just 17 first downs and 345 yards. And at Knoxville on Saturday the totals
were 16 first downs and 243 yards. The problem is that there is not a true lead RB
to take the pressure off of Tebow (no Florida RB has more than nine carries in a
game), and now that opposing defenses are learning how to handle this spread
scheme yards are not coming easily. With the Rebels now healthy on defense (Greg
Hardy should be able to play serious minutes this week), they have the depth to
not get worn down in The Swamp, and with Jevan Snead having the versatile
Dexter McCluster and a deep corps of WR’s to work with, this is also the biggest
challenge that the Florida defense has faced this season. This is much closer than
“they” think. FLORIDA 27-22.
**PREFERRED
Wake Forest* over Navy by 3
For Jim Grobe to take his roster and beat Bobby Bowden’s players three seasons in
a row is a true sign of his special tactical acumen. It is also why we have cashed a
lot of underdog tickets with him in the past. But this is an entirely different setting;
while the Deacons can challenge just about anyone with X’s and O’s, having
enough talent to get margins is another matter entirely. Grobe’s run is now 4-15
ATS as a favorite of more than a touchdown, and off of that draining win in
Tallahassee this is another game in which they will do enough to win, and not
much more. Note that there should also be no concern about the margin in last
year’s 44-24 Deacon win at Annapolis – in that one the Midshipmen were -3 in
turnovers, and could not handle WR Kevin Moore (now in the NFL), who burned
them for 181 yards on 15 catches. Wake now lacks such a playmaker, which forces
the offense to be methodical, and now that the Navy passing game is showing some
spark (13.3 yards per pass the last two weeks), the Middies are even more difficult
to defend. WAKE FOREST 29-26.
Tennessee over Auburn* by 5
The very best times to get behind class programs are those weeks in which no one
else wants them. Phil Fulmer’s Volunteers rarely fall into that category, and as such
it makes this one particularly solid, as we take a more than healthy number with
athletes that have the talent to win the game outright, and also the mind-set.
Tennessee will have fallen out of pubic favor off of ugly 30-6 result vs. Florida on
Saturday, but the actually play was nowhere near what the scoreboard showed. A
sound defense allowed only 16 first downs and 243 yards, and it is that unit that
is the key here, against an Auburn offense that is still a work in progress. Through
their first eight SEC quarters they have managed 17 points on their own (the other
TD came on an interception return vs. L.S.U.), and while Tony Franklin’s schemes
worked well at lower levels, spreading the field does not bring any special advantage
against the class of athletes in this conference. It will take precision that they
lack to make plays against the Vols. TENNESSEE 22-17.
Toledo* over Florida International by 25
Much like a convenience store worker on a graveyard shift, the Panthers have gone
nothing but mail it in these “paycheck” games since Mario Cristobal took over.
Except for a regional grudge match vs. Miami F. last year, his former employer, it
has been an ugly 1-4 ATS in these games, with the only cover that 40-10 loss at
Kansas to open the season when the oddsmakers were overly generous. Now we
might find their biggest flat spot of all, coming one game after they opened their
new stadium with a competitive game against South Florida, and with a Sun Belt
opener at North Texas next week that they have a real chance to win. And of all
trips that they could make, there are fewer that create lesser excitement for them
than this venue. That brings the wrong mindset for this matchup, with the Rockets
building plenty of momentum the past two weeks, especially in the way that they
reached back for something extra under pressure against Fresno State, and they will
relish the opportunity to erase the frustrations of finally losing early on Sunday
morning. TOLEDO 42-17.
Iowa* over Northwestern by 17
Many times there are serious negatives that can be overlooked when a team wins a
few games, and the current 4-0 record that sits next to Northwestern’s name is a
classic example. The home slate has been a series of walkovers, and in the only road
trip the Wildcats were badly out-played at Duke, winning the scoreboard despite
trailing by 14 first downs and 144 yards of total offense. But perhaps the worst sign
of all came last week. The problem in 2007 was the decision-making of C. J.
Bacher, who threw 19 interceptions, including three in a 28-17 home loss to these
Hawkeyes. And while Bacher is now a senior, what he did against Ohio last week
was unforgiveable – he was intercepted four times vs. a mediocre defense, and he
did it despite the fact that he was played with the lead throughout. When we see
those mistakes it means bad news when heading to the road to face this class of
defense, and now that the Hawkeyes have regained the offensive balance that was
missing last year, they can control the ball throughout. IOWA 31-14.
*CLOSE CALLS
Tulane* over S.M.U. by 17 (Thursday)
We can not help but be impressed with the tremendous defensive performances of
the Green Wave so far, although a short practice week for their first look at the
June Jones playbook does create some new challenges. Of course, Jones can currently
only use the most basic chapters of that book at this time. TULANE 34-17.
Southern Cal over Oregon State* by 26 (Thursday)
A young Beaver defensive front has had to grow up in a hurry, and based on the
Stanford/Penn State results, they are a long way from creating the kind of pressure
to throw the Trojans off stride. SOUTHERN CAL 35-9.
Louisville* over Connecticut by 1 (Friday)
Huskies have only one road win since becoming a full-fledged member of the Big
East, and until we see some indication that their passing game has any rhythm,
those wins may continue to be elusive, especially with the Cardinals bringing bitter
memories of the officiating in last year’s loss. LOUISVILLE 24-23.
Western Michigan over Temple* by 3
When these two met at the end of the 2007 season it was a deceptively close 16-3
for Western on the scoreboard, as the Broncos led 438-146 in total offense. But
the Owls were a gassed team at that juncture, which is not the case this time
around. WESTERN MICHIGAN 23-20.
West Virginia* over Marshall by 22
One of the best ways for a coach to ease pressure from the home fans is to go a little
harder to build a margin. Bill Stewart faces such pressure here. WEST VIRGINIA 38-16.
Pittsburgh over Syracuse* by 17
Dave Wannstedt wanted physical play in the trenches to be the forte of this program,
but we have yet to see the Panthers win the line of scrimmage this season. If
they can not do it here… PITTSBURGH 31-14.
Michigan State over Indiana* by 6
When these two met in East Lansing last year it was a 52-27 Spartan blowout
keyed by a 368-22 domination on the ground. Current national statistics will show
that the Hoosiers have improved in that category, but those numbers have little
meaning based on the early schedule. MICHIGAN STATE 27-21.
Duke* over Virginia by 3
Guess who is favored after losing the last five meetings in the series in double figures?
But on merit the Blue Devils get the call, and can also win the game, with
the experience of Thaddeus Lewis a big edge over the untested Marc Verica.
DUKE 23-20.
Miami FL* over North Carolina by 3
Tar Heel talent is good enough to win games but adding extra confidence continues
to be elusive – when that 17-3 lead late in the third quarter got away vs.
Virginia Tech, it dropped them to 1-5 the last two seasons in games decided by
four points or less. But the Hurricanes lack that same polish. MIAMI FL 23-20.
L.S.U.* over Mississippi State by 21
With a bye week up next, Les Miles is allowed to exorcise some frustrations here,
and much like the 45-0 rout at Starkville last year, Sylvester Croom just does not
have the offensive personnel or designs to make anything happen against this
defense. L.S.U. 27-6.
Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan* by 10
A good chance to put those “Huskies are under-rated” notions into play if the line
remains fair – they may have been the better team on the field at Minnesota and
Western Michigan both, but came away with a pair of tough L’s that keeps them
under the radar screens. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 31-21.
Central Michigan* over Buffalo by 10
Chippewas have not played on their own turf since August, and may come away
with a higher confidence level off of that near-miss at Purdue, instead of having a
letdown. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31-21.
Cincinnati over Akron* by 13
That depleted Akron defensive front will have a tough time competing for four
quarters given the talent gap here, especially with Tony Pike nearly flawless in his
first start as Cincy QB, and the Bearcat program is developing to the point at
which they could have a decent following for this trip, negating the home field
advantage. CINCINNATI 30-17.
East Carolina* over Houston by 12
The Cougars bring a bitter revenge motive after suffering a 37-35 home loss last
year in which they led by nine first downs and 155 yards of total offense, but in
reality this is the fourth straight game on the road, with their September development
severely curtailed. EAST CAROLINA 35-23.
Notre Dame* over Purdue by 1
The Fighting Irish continue to show no ability to run the ball, but Jimmy Clausen
and some talented WR’s are starting to develop a rhythm. Against this soft defense,
the passing game may be enough. NOTRE DAME 24-23.
Ohio State* over Minnesota by 24
It was a savvy move by Jim Tressel to have Terrelle Pryor go almost all the way vs.
Troy State, in order to get him some real experience before conference play begins.
Now it is league play, and yet he will be facing a weaker defense than last week.
OHIO STATE 37-13.
Nebraska* over Virginia Tech by 3
We do not believe these Cornhuskers are nearly as good as the public perceptions
(the scores and stats certainly do not match so far), but we will cross our fingers
and actually hope that they win here, so that we can step in and lay a cheap price
with Missouri on this field next week. NEBRASKA 24-21.
Washington* over Stanford by 4
With two prep weeks it is a “backs to the wall” game for Tyrone Willingham’s program,
and we do remember their dominance on the scoreboard (27-9) and in the
trenches (388-116 rushing) in last year’s matchup vs. the Cardinal. The problem is
that Louis Rankin ran for 255 of those yards, and the Huskies have yet to find a
replacement. WASHINGTON 28-24.
California* over Colorado State by 24
With two weeks to build up a level of frustration following that dismal showing at
Maryland the Bears can cut it loose here, especially as they remember being seriously
challenged by the Rams in Fort Collins last year (a 34-28 win required a +3
turnover margin). CALIFORNIA 41-17.
Wisconsin over Michigan* by 4
Although getting an early bye week can be a major plus for Rich Rodriguez in
terms of getting his playbook installed, running up against this class of defense is
something that the Wolverines are not ready for yet. WISCONSIN 20-16.
Clemson* over Maryland by 8
When we see that the young Clemson OL can not even free up C. J. Spiller and
James Davis vs. South Carolina State, it means that we have to approach this
offense much differently than the pre-season expectations. CLEMSON 27-19.
Fresno State over U.C.L.A.* 3
As bad as these Bruins are, we have to wonder if the nature of the early Bulldog
schedule could have them a little drained at this point, especially after going deep
into the night at Toledo. FRESNO STATE 23-20.
Bowling Green over Wyoming* by 6
After traveling to Boise two weeks ago there is nothing intimidating about this trip
for the Falcons, who now step way down in class against a struggling Wyoming
offense that has nearly given up as many touchdowns (two) as they have scored
(three) in their three lined games. BOWLING GREEN 26-20.
Oregon over Washington State* by 24
Having been humbled by Boise State, there is not any fear now of the Ducks looking
ahead to Southern Cal next week – they have some business to attend to.
OREGON 41-17.
Oklahoma* over T.C.U. by 21
At another time we might have given this underdog a look, in a setting that can
put them on the national map. But right now the BCS has three pieces to fit into
two pegs (Southern Cal – Big 12 Champ – SEC Champ), and Bob Stoops has been
around long enough to know that it means no letting up. OKLAHOMA 34-13.
South Carolina* over U.A.B. by 26
Steve Spurrier would like to get the kind of blowout win that builds the confidence
his offense will need for much tougher challenges ahead. Neil Callaway just wants
to get through this one without any injuries, before a home conference affair vs.
Memphis on Thursday. SOUTH CAROLINA 38-12.
Texas A&M* over Army by 28
We used to like to back Army in trips to this state because they annually have so
many players from Texas on their roster, but the switch to an option attack simply
does not fit the personnel at hand. TEXAS A&M 40-12.
Ball State* over Kent State by 12
We rarely talk about a letdown spot when a team is heading into a conference game
off of a non-league affair, but that win over Indiana on the road last week meant a
lot to these Cardinals. BALL STATE 36-24.
South Florida over N.C. State* by 6
The beginning of Tom O’Brien’s rebuilding program officially began on Saturday,
when Russell Wilson threw three TD passes without a single interception in that
pressurized atmosphere vs. East Carolina. A nice building block, although the
speed of this defense will cause him some issues. SOUTH FLORIDA 27-21.
Colorado over Florida State by 1 (Jacksonville)
After making the computers buzz with those big numbers vs. weak competition, it
was the same old Florida State offense vs. Wake Forest, four home quarters without
a touchdown. Still a “home” game here, but the Buffaloes bring more polish.
COLORADO 21-20.
Central Florida over U.T.E.P.* by 3
Perhaps against this class of opponent, the Golden Knights can win with defense
alone, as those young skill people need a lot of time to develop. U.C.F. 30-27.
Penn State* over Illinois by 15
Have to believe that films of last year’s loss at Champagne will have State breathing
fire from the start here, after allowing a kickoff return for a TD, and turning
the ball over three times inside the Illinois 30-yard line. And a young Illinois
defense leaves the kind of holes that can be exploited. PENN STATE 35-20.
New Mexico over New Mexico State* by 2
The Lobos showed little acumen against an offense that spread the field and threw
the ball around last week (Tulsa), and note that even in beating these Aggies by 10
at home LY they allowed 581 yards. NEW MEXICO 35-33.
San Diego State* over Idaho by 17
When you fade to the point at which Utah State runs off 28 straight points, which
is what happened to these Vandals in the second half last week, it becomes strictly
a play-against or pass situation. Pass, for now. SAN DIEGO STATE 37-20.
U.N.L.V.* over Nevada by 4
Back-to-back wins in overtime over teams from BCS conferences are finally bringing
some momentum to Mike Sanford’s program, and it could also mean taking
this in-state affair as seriously as their northern rivals annually do. U.N.L.V. 31-27.
San Jose State over Hawaii* by 5
Not easy to get a feel for the Rainbows right now – while they are indeed young
and the scoreboards have been awful, they are also -9 in turnovers in their first two
lined games. Off of a bye, perhaps we can expect better. SAN JOSE STATE 31-26.
Kentucky* over Western Kentucky by 20
Two weeks after having been scared by Middle Tennessee, we believe that Wildcats
will have properly safeguarded against being embarrassed by this opponent. But
just not enough punch to beat anyone easily. KENTUCKY 33-13.
Arkansas State over Memphis* by 3
Not much of a home field advantage in this one, with plenty of seats available and
the Red Wolves having a short trip. And right now they simply look better.
ARKANSAS STATE 30-27.
Oklahoma State* over Troy by 11
Cowboys will surely be simmering after seeing far too many times films of last
year’s debacle vs. these Trojans on national television. But at the same time, that
game does reflect balanced talent between the programs, which means nothing
comes easily. OKLAHOMA STATE 35-24.
Kansas State* over Louisiana by 16
After seeing the Wildcats get gouged for 303 rushing yards vs. a Louisville team
that lacks a ground game, it is not easy to get a margin here against the Cajuns,
since that is the one strength that they do have. But where they are not strong, they
are very weak. KANSAS STATE 40-24.
Rice* over North Texas by 18
It looks like the Owls might finally get a chance to return to campus for practice
this week, bringing a sense of normalcy to a team that has had to work through
some major distractions. RICE 45-27.
Texas* over Arkansas by 26
Moving this one back two weeks is only delaying the inevitable for Bobby Petrino’s
Razorbacks, who look shockingly lost in their new schemes. TEXAS 42-16.
Florida Atlantic* over Middle Tennessee by 6 (Tuesday)
The Owls were drubbed 106-13 in their non-conference paycheck games, in a season
in which it looked like they had a better chance to compete on paper. That
means that Howard may have just been playing possum, a concept that we will
explore carefully before kickoff. FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27-21.
Boise State* over Louisiana Tech by 18 (Wednesday)
As much as the blue turf usually gets respected when the television cameras are on,
the Boise win at Oregon now forces the oddsmakers to go even further to balance
the action. Perhaps too far. BOISE STATE 34-16.
_________________________
Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis
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#144465 - 09/23/08 10:04 PM
Re: Newsletters 9/23 to 9/29
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 46478
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Power Sweep
4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3* Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina 20- 23
2* Auburn 23-6
4★ UNLV over Nevada - LY QB Graziano threw a 43 yd TD pass to Sammons with :27 left for the
Wolf Pack’s 3rd consec SU and ATS win in the battle for the Fremont Cannon. UNLV got to the Nev
17 but fi red inc at the end. UNLV is off 2 exciting OT wins. After the Ariz St upset 2 weeks ago, UNLV
all’d Iowa St to get the game-tying TD with :03 left. In OT after ISU hit a 37 FG, QB Clayton went for
it on UNLV’s 1st play and found true Fr Payne (who had the OT-forcing rec vs ASU) in the back of the
EZ for the 3 pt win, delivering a 3★ Totals Play Winner on the Over. Clayton avg 194 ypg (63%) with
a 9-0 ratio!! Frank “the Tank” Summers has been on a roll the L/2 breaking the 100 yd barrier and
has 386 yds (4.5) with 3 TD. UN QB Kaepernick avg 179 ypg pass (61%) with a 2-2 ratio but has 214
rush yds (6.9) to lead the tm. The HT is 8-3 ATS and even though Nevada won its last trip here 31-3
& is fresh off a bye, they have lost their top 2 RB’s in the L/2 gms. As a result QB Kaepernick will
lose some of his scrambling ability as UNLV DC Therrell can have a completely different gameplan
here which focuses solely on the QB. FORECAST: UNLV 37 Nevada 27
3★ LSU over Mississippi St - MSU is 1-15 SU (2-14 ATS) vs LSU. The avg score of the last 7 has
been LSU 42-6 with 3 shutouts. LY Miss St trailed just 3-0 with 6:00 left in the 1H but had 7 TO’s and
LSU won 45-0. MSU pulled 2 outright upsets as a DD SEC AD LY (Aub & KY). Miles is just 8-13 as a
HF and MSU is 7-3-1 as an AD though they suffered a blowout loss at GT LW (38-7, +9). The Tigers
are off a come-from-behind win at Aub and have a bye on deck. However, LSU is 1-11 as a SEC HF
and 1-7 as a DD SEC fav. LSU has a huge edge on off (#20-112) despite 2 QB’s sharing snaps. LW’s
starter Hatch (73 ypg, 51%, 1-1 ratio) went down with a concussion and bkup Lee (127 ypg, 54%,
4-2 ratio) led LSU to 2 TD’s and the win. LSU fi nally has a feature back in Charles Scott (394, 9.0)
and WR LaFell (15, 16.5) has more than twice as many yds as the #2 man. MSU allowed GT’s triple
option off 438 rush yds (8.1) LW. MSU QB Carroll has avg 132 ypg (54%) with a 3-6 ratio and bkup
Lee hit 17-27 for 179 off the bench LW. RB Dixon has 270 (4.8) and top WR McCrae has 24 rec (10.4).
The biggest mismatch is LSU’s top-notch DL (allow 55 rush ypg, 2.0) vs MSU’s rebuilding OL and the
Tigers will dominate the line of scrimmage and the game. FORECAST: LSU 38 Mississippi St 0
3★ PENN ST over Illinois - IL is 1-13 SU in B10 openers with the win coming LY. LY PSU had a
427-336 yd edge on the road but lost 27-20 due to 4 TO’s and a KR TD. A 2-10 IL team outplayed
PSU in their last trip to Happy Valley with a 358-184 yd edge but lost SU. Both teams are now running
the spread with mobile QB’s and while IL has the more veteran QB, PSU has the edge on D (#6-61)
and ST’s (#2-32). PSU more than SD fav and Zook is 4-0 ATS as a conf AD with upsets of Mich St
(+26) and #1 Ohio St (+15) and near upsets of PSU and Wisky. IL’s Williams leads the league in total
off avg 241 ypg (60%) with a 7-5 ratio and 219 rush yds. Zook did call out Williams and WR Benn (15
rec, 10.0) for their inconsistent play after a 3 pt win over ULL. Illini D was shredded by MO’s spread
for 52 pts and 549 yds in the opener. PSU has been the B10’s most impressive team thus far after
whipping their foes by a combined 211-40. PSU has won Key Selections on these pages the L2W
including their 45-3 drubbing of Temple in which they outgained the Owls 546-138. Clark is the B10’s
pass eff leader (180 ypg, 62%, 7-1 ratio). Lions take a step up but show LY’s Rose Bowl participant
who’s at the head of the class in ‘08. FORECAST: PENN ST 41 Illinois 13
OTHER SELECTIONS
2★ OHIO ST over Minnesota - Minny pulled an upset here in ‘00 & OSU is 4-1 ATS since incl a 44-0
home win in ‘06. LY OSU had a 455-277 yd edge but was SOD at the Minny 5 late and did not cover
(30-7, -24). Tressel is 5-2 as a 20+ B10 fav, and since their stunning upset loss to NW in ‘04’s B10 opener
have won the L/3 by an avg of 39-6 covering by 17 ppg. Minny is 3-6 as an AD but beat BG 42-17 (+5)
in that role TY. After going 1-11 LY the Gophers are 4-0 after an impressive 37-3 win over FAU in which
they forced 5 more TO’s (+11 TO margin in ‘08). QB Weber is #2 in the conf in pass eff (242 ypg, 72%,
7-1 ratio) despite playing behind an OL that has lost 4 starters due to inj’s TY and losing the team’s
leading rusher for the yr. WR Decker is #3 in the NCAA with 32 rec (14.2). The Terrelle Pryor (PS#1)
era began for OSU as he threw for 4 TD’s and ran for 66 yds in a win over Troy. The Trojans had the
yd edge (315-309) and trailing just 14-10 in the 3Q were threatening to take the lead when they were
int’d at the OSU 6 and the Bucks tacked on two 4Q TD’s thanks to short punts. Beanie Wells (toe) may
not return until Wisky (10/4). The Bucks have the edges all around (#23-46 off, #3-71 D & #6-17 ST’s)
and need to reestablish their Big Ten dominance. FORECAST: OHIO ST 41 Minnesota 13
2★ North Carolina (+) over MIAMI, FL - Butch Davis returns to Miami and LY his Tar Heels were +7
at home, rolled to a 27-0 lead at half and won 33-27 with Miami getting a TD with 1:17 left. Shannon
was a player and an asst under Davis. NC has 18 ret sts while Miami has just 11 and is w/o RB James,
however, Cooper rushed for 128 yds (8.0) vs A&M LW. This is rFr QB Marve’s (PS#12) 1st home start
and on the ssn he is avg 141 ypg (65%) with a 2-1 ratio. Miami is just 11-24 as a HF. Two weeks ago
the Tar Heels won for the 1st time outside NC S/’02. NC has a slight offensive edge (#55-65) however
UM has a solid defensive edge (#16-53). LW NC lost QB Yates with a sprained ankle (x-rays negative,
check status) and were forced to play rFr Paulus, who threw 2 int. WR Tate is #1 in NCAA in all-purp
yds avg 265.7 ypg. NC is coming off a heart breaking 20-17 loss to VT in a game they led 17-3 late
3Q and is trying to prove they are a rising power in the league in Davis’ 2nd yr.
FORECAST: North Carolina 20 (+) MIAMI, FL 23
2★ AUBURN over Tennessee - Tenn has lost 3 in a row in this series with the last meeting being
in the ‘04 SEC Champ game (38-28). Eight of the L/11 in this series have been decided by 10 pts or
less incl 2 ties. The fav is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. The Vols are 12-0 SU and have covered the L4Y the wk
after facing rival Florida. UT committed 3 TO’s in the 1H and allowed a 78 yd PR TD which cost them
the gm LW. Following the loss at UCLA (also mistake riddled), UT rebounded vs UAB. It’ll be much
tougher to rebound vs Aub’s #8 D on the road. Aub is also off a disappointing loss to their rival and
has struggled with their new spread offense. QB Todd has avg 181 ypg (57%) with a 2-3 ratio and
RB Tate (323, 4.8) leads the tm in rushing. UT QB Crompton has had some growing pains incl an
int in the EZ LW and a fumble inside UF’s 5, but has avg 197 ypg (56%) with a 2-4 ratio. RB Foster
has 233 yds (6.0). Aub is 14-5 SU & 12-6-1 ATS the L/5Y (but 2-4 L/6) as a SEC HF, but are on a
3-11 ATS run as a HF overall. UT is 7-1-1 ATS off a SU loss and Aub is 11-5 off a SU loss. UT has a
signifi cant edge on off (#26-52) while Aub has a slight edge on defense (#8-17) and a huge edge on
ST’s (#5-85) plus the home edge. The Tigers’ D take advantage of a QB making his fi rst SEC road start of the year. FORECAST: AUBURN 23 Tennessee 6
Thursday, September 25th - Smu at TULANE - LY RB Forté rushed for a CUSA record 342 yds
(9.0) in the 41-34 OT win. Ironically, the last time here SMU held Tulane to a school record -33 yards
rushing in ‘06. Tulane is coming off their 1st win of the season, outgaining ULM 454-182 in a 24-10
victory. Tulane is just 4-10 ATS off a SU win and does not have much experience as a HF (3-2 L/5Y).
June Jones said his offense would not hit stride until game 4 but they have yet to do so, struggling
the L2W vs quality opp’s (TT, TCU). The Mustang QB’s avg’d just 216 ypg with a 2-7 ratio in those 2
games. Tulane has our #79 pass eff def all’g just 150 pass ypg, but they have yet to face a pass-heavy
offense. SMU has a HUGE edge on ST’s (#37-118), but Tulane holds a large edge on D (#46-117).
Tulane is 7-2 SU and ATS in the series, but the visitor is 5-1 ATS.
Usc at OREGON ST - The Trojans are fresh off their solid outing against the Buckeyes and now
enter their toughest AG to date where their 27 gm conf winning streak was ended in ‘06. The Trojans
have lost just twice to OSU S/’68 (33 gms) and LY at home led 24-3 at half with a 175-49 yd edge.
The Beavers are off a convincing win against Hawaii and will need an all out performance to knock
off the mighty Trojans this week. OSU is 27-14 ATS at home vs conf opp’s while the visitor is 8-3 ATS
in this series making this P10 showdown one to watch this week.
Friday, September 26th - Connecticut at LOUISVILLE - LY Connecticut defeated UL for the 1st time
in 4 meetings. UL was -3 on the road and led 17-7 mid-4Q but lost 21-17 as Conn benefi tted from a
momentum changing fair catch PR TD (see PH). Louisville was a 3★ LPS for us (-28) in ‘06 at home
and romped 48-17 (UC got late garbage TD). UL has just 9 ret sts while UC has 17. UL was 15-2 as
a HF before ‘07 and looks to return to form (1-1 TY) while UC is 4-11 as an AD (2-8 BE AD).
Saturday Games - WAKE FOREST 37 Navy 20 - This will be Navy’s 1st visit to Winston-Salem S/’02.
Wake struggles in this role as they are 3-13 ATS as a HF (0-1 TY) while Navy is 11-4 as an AD (0-2
TY). LY Wake turned 3 Navy TO’s into 17 pts in their 44-24 win. The game was tied 17-17 when Navy
QB Kaheaku-Enhada went out with inj. Navy has Air Force on deck in Colo Springs. K Swank’s 69
FG’s are the most among current FBS players in 4 incl LW’s win over FSU. QB Skinner is avg 235
ypg (70%) with a 5-0 ratio. WR Boldin has 20 rec (8.0) and TE Wooster has 14 (10.1). Navy has the
offensive edge (#43-66) but WF has a substantial defensive (#11-109) and schedule (#14-78) edge.
QB Kaheaku-Enhada, who played in his 1st full game LW vs Rutgers, had 136 ttl yds offense. RB
White is #3 in the NCAA with 673 yds (solid 10.7). LW Navy snapped a 2 gm losing streak with their
23-21 win over Rutgers and had 361 ttl yds offense.
W Michigan 30 TEMPLE 17 - The Broncos are 6-0 SU vs Temple incl 1-0 in Philly but the HT has
covered 5 straight. LY WM held the Owls to a ssn low 146 yds & outgained them by 292 yds (19-6 FD).
Temple is 3-1 SU & ATS in MAC HG’s. WM’s Cubit is 2-4 as an AF but covered easily (51-28, -8) at
Idaho TY. Temple is 9-3 as a HD but in their MAC home opener were whipped by Buffalo 42-7 in ‘07.
The Owls are off their fi rst ATS loss TY (3-1 ATS) but more importantly they lost QB DiMichele in the
1Q, and it is exp to be out for a considerable amount of time. DiMichele was lost for the season LY vs
Miami and the Owls went just 1-3 without him. RFr Chester Stewart (PS#134QB) came in vs Penn St
and threw for 116 (53%) with a 0-3 ratio, and this will be his fi rst career start. DiMichele leads the Owls
with 112 yds (4.1) rush while their top RB, Liverpool is #2 with just 108 (3.3). WM QB Hiller is avg 276
(72%) with a 14-2 ratio. RB Brandon West leads WM with 432 (6.5) which is 100 more yds then Temple’s
whole team has on the year. Temple has played the tougher schedule (#37-111) and has the better D
(#73-86). WM has a big off edge (#53-111) which will only get bigger with DiMichele out.
WEST VIRGINIA 30 Marshall 16 - The Herd led 13-6 as the HT LY but #3 WV got an amazing front
door push (-25) scoring 3 late TD’s incl ones with 3:55 and 1:40 left to win 48-23. The Herd did play
well vs BCS Wisc for nearly 2Q’s in wk 2 and only trailed 17-14 at the half. Marshall had lobbied for
years for the “Coal Bowl” to be played and WV (big brother) did win at home 42-10 (-22) in ‘06. LW
WV went back to their bread & butter (belly-option) after att’g to turn QB White into a passer (5 TD
Wk 1). He had 149 rush yds (7.8) & RB Devine (PS#2) had 133 yds (5.1). The Mountaineers had 312
rush yards (43 pass) but lost 17-14 in OT to Colorado. WV has been outgained for 3 straight weeks.
Marshall snapped a 9 gm road losing in their 34-27 win over conf foe S Miss, another outright upset
for the Big Dog POW. WV has the edge on off (#30-78) and def (#48-88) as well as the Morgantown
fans. MU is just 5-13 as an AD and 5-14-1 on the road under Snyder but does have 17 ret sts to
WV’s 12. WV is 4-1 ATS as DD HF vs non-conf opp’s the L/2Y. WV is off to its worst start S/’03 but
look for them to rebound before entering their conf opener vs Rutgers.
Pittsburgh 37 SYRACUSE 10 - Pitt & Syracuse have met every year since 1955 and while Pitt is
5-1 SU they have won the L/2 by 10 and 3 pts while Syr was outscored by the rest of the BE by an
avg of 19.3 ppg. This is Pitt’s road opener and they did cover last time here 21-11 (-7) and have 15
ret starters. SU is on a 0-7 streak as a HD being outscored by 30 ppg. In those gms SU has given
up 270 rush ypg (excl PSU who didn’t need to) as teams ran it down their throat. The Orange who
had been outscored 127-51 their 1st 3 gms, only defeated IAA NEastern by only a 30-21 score LW.
They allowed 383 yds as NE converted 10-14 on 3rd down and never seemed out of game. SU has
a bye on deck so this should be their “A” game. They now take on LeSean McCoy (PS#8) who has
yet to rush for 100, but LY ran for 141 vs SU. LW Pitt took on a physical Iowa tm and escaped with
a 21-20 win. Pitt has the big edge on off (#63-101) and def (#28-115). Pitt has a big game vs USF
on deck but the favorite has covered 4 out of the last 5 in this series. LY we went against Syr in the
dome and won our 5★ GOY on USF (-16’).
Michigan St 38 INDIANA 17 - MSU is 9-2 for the Old Brass Spittoon in a series which avg 59 ppg
w/an avg margin of victory of 22 ppg. Indy is just 1-15 SU in B10 openers. LY MSU dominated 52-27
at home with a 558-193 yd edge. MSU had won 4 straight trips to Bloomington by an avg of 24 ppg
but lost their last trip here under JLS. Indy does have the edge on ST’s (#63-87) and is 4-2 as a
HD with 3 outright upsets. The Spartans are 3-7 as an AF. IU became the 1st BCS conf team ever
(0-43) to lose to Ball St in which QB Lewis struggled hitting just 11 of 25 for 159 yds with 2 int. The
D KO’d the nation’s leading rec’v (BSU’s Love) in the 1H but couldn’t stop RB M Lewis (166 yds)
as it struggled with inj’s to 3 starting DB’s. They now face the NCAA’s 2nd leading rusher in Ringer
(699, 4.9) whose 201 yds helped power the Spartans to a 23-7 win over ND. In that game the Irish
missed 2 FG’s, threw an int in the EZ while another int set up a 22 yd Spartan TD drive. MSU has
big edges (#40-70 off & #24-74 D) and has played a much tougher sked (#31-114). The Spartans
continue to play the bully.
IOWA 24 Northwestern 10 - NW is actually 6-5 SU in this series and there have been 3 straight
outright upset wins. Twice a team was ahead in the 4Q and lost incl LY (see PH). The last time here
Iowa was (-20) but was outgained 443-264 and beaten 21-7 with their starting QB’s left hand in a
cast. Iowa is 3-7 as a HF but Fitzgerald is 3-6 as an AD. Iowa is off a 21-20 loss at Pitt in which the D
allowed their 1st TD’s of the season with 2 on drives in which Pitt conv’d 4th downs. The QB situation
is again muddled as Christensen struggled (12-24 for 124 yds) and fmbl’d away the ball at the Hawks
28 on their last drive. Stanzi (7-10 for 79 yds) spent the 2H on the bench and Ferentz said he doesn’t
know who will start vs the Cats. Greene (506, 6.5) has had 100 yds in each game TY. Iowa is #48
in pass eff D and hasn’t faced a pass attack of this caliber. NW is 4-0 for the 1st time S/’62 after a
16-8 win over Ohio in which RB Sutton (leg) was inj’d in the 2Q & DNR (check status). QB Bachér
has struggled avg 190 ypg (59%) with a 3-5 ratio including 4 int LW. The Cats’ D is 4th in the NCAA
with 15 sks (18 in ‘07) and allows 97 rush ypg (2.9) incl a school rec’d 4 yds to Ohio LW. Iowa gets
back to basics in a lower scoring game.
DUKE 31 Virginia 13 - Virginia has outscored Duke by 20 ppg going 17-2 SU including 8 straight wins.
We used UVA as our fi rst ever Sept 5★ back in 1984 and they waxed Duke 38-10 (-4). Duke is 9-5
ATS in the series and only trailed Virginia 17-13 to start the 4Q LY covering on the road 24-13. Both
teams are off a bye. This is the 4th straight home gm for Duke. Duke is the much more veteran team
and gets this one at home and the Cavs are 11-22 ATS on the road, however Duke is 1-6 ATS as a
HF beating Navy as a 4★ LPS two weeks ago. UVA has been outscored by a combined 97-17 by the
two FBS teams it has faced. Duke has won 2 of 3 gms to start the season for the 1st time S/’03. QB
Lewis leads the ACC in total offense, avg 274 ypg (#2 passing avg 238 ypg). WR Riley has 19 rec
(12.2). UVA QB Lalich has been dismissed from the team for violating probation. QB Verica in his 1st
start passed for 158 yds with a 0-1 ratio. UVA’s off is only avg 234 ypg while their D is allowing 419.
Duke is avg 411 yds off and allowing 308 ypg. Cutcliffe appears to have them on the right track (2-1
SU, 2-0 ATS), while UVA is steadily backsliding. In Duke’s only loss, they outgained N’Western 472-328
and outFD’d them 29-14. A Duke win will end a 25 game ACC losing streak.
FLORIDA 34 Mississippi 17 - The Rebels are 3-3 SU (5-1 ATS) vs Florida S/’89 including winning 2
of the L/3 SU (L/3 decided by 4 ppg)! LY Tebow set a school QB record with 166 yds rushing as UF
(-23) barely got past UM 30-24 (see PH). Ole Miss (+12’) defeated #24 ranked UF 20-17 in their last
trip to the Swamp in ‘03, but has lost 14 straight SEC road games (avg loss by 16 ppg). UF is 0-6 ATS
the week after rival Tennessee. UF capitalized on UT errors LW as they led 17-0 after 1Q with 2 scoring
drives of 44 and 0 yds and then added a 78 yd PR TD. UF was outgained 258-243 and Tebow had a
career low passing performance (only avg 163 ypg, 59%, 5-0 ratio, 118 rush, 3.5). Meyer is 22-8-1 as
a HF, but UF is 1-9-1 as a DD conf fav and 0-7 as 20+ fav. Nutt is 8-2 as an AD with outright upsets of
#2 Auburn and #1 LSU (4-1 as AD vs Top 10 tms). Ole Miss has lost 9 consec SEC gms and LW lost
to Vandy despite a 385-202 yd edge as QB Snead (211 ypg, 54%, 6-7 ratio) threw 4 int incl 1 ret’d 79
yds for a TD as UM had a 6-2 TO defi cit. UF has our #1 ST’s unit, #2 def, #6 off and certainly has a
large speed edge over Ole Miss, but may not be as motivated as they were LW.
Northern Illinois 34 E MICHIGAN 20 - NI is 8-2 SU vs EM, all 8 wins have been by a TD+ (avg win
by 18 ppg). The Huskies have outrushed EM the L10Y on avg 230 ypg (5.3) to 95 ypg (2.8). However,
with new HC Kill and a new off NI is avg 166 ypg rush while EM is avg 211. EM RB Blevins has 312
yds (5.7) while NI top RB Brown has just 100 yds (4.3). LY EM got a rare win as NI was banged up
and blew a 13-0 lead. After a holding call wiped out a FD at the 21, NI missed a 50 yd FG on the fi nal
play and lost 21-19 (-13). NI has won their L/3 here by 24 ppg and only had a bye and IAA foe the
L2W. Both tms are 0-1 in MAC play with their only win of the season over IAA Ind St. EM won 52-0
with a 637-132 edge while NI won 48-3 with a 363-154 yd edge as both had 28 pt lead at the half.
Both were without their opening game starters at QB LW (check status). NI has the edge on both off
(#83-93) and def (#78-105). NI is 2-0 ATS as they lost both lined gms by a comb 7 pts. EM is 0-3 ATS
losing their 3 lined games by an avg of 28 ppg.
C MICHIGAN 41 Buffalo 27 - In their last game in ‘06, CMU had a 313-122 yd edge & led 48-7 at the
half. UB is 2-15 SU (6-11 ATS) vs MAC West teams and CM has won 11 in a row SU (9-2 ATS) vs the
East. The fi rst 4 meetings were in Buffalo (CM 3-1 SU & ATS). Buf is 8-3 as a MAC AD but CM is 6-2
as a MAC HF. Both covered LW as DD dogs to BCS tms. Buffalo (+33) only trailed #5 Mizzou 20-14
at the half before being outscored 22-7 in the 2H, as MU QB Daniel played all game, working on his
Heisman stats and the Bulls were outgained 590-286. CM (+10) had a a 25-24 lead over Purdue with
1:18 left but all’d a late TD and lost despite a 440-343 yd edge. Both teams won their conf opener.
Buffalo has the D edge (#90-110) but CM has the off edge (#24-57). CM QB Dan LeFevour is avg 280
ypg (61%) with a 7-3 ratio and is the #1 rusher with 218 yds (3.9). UB QB Drew Willy is avg 257 ypg
(62%) with a 10-3 ratio. The Bulls were without their top rusher RB James Starks (296, 5.0) who was
inj’d vs Temple (check status). His two backups have combined for 287 yds (4.2) on the year.
Cincinnati 37 AKRON 23 - The home team is 3-1 in this series with 3 of 4 decided by 6 pts or less.In
their last gm (‘06), UA jumped out to a 14-0 lead after 1Q, but was outscored 20-0 (Akron 34 yds last
3Q) covering (+6’). Cincy is 3-6 as an AF and just faced rival Miami with a Friday night game on deck.
The Zips have only been a HD 5 times in 4 years and have FOUR OUTRIGHT upsets but did not cover
vs Ball St this year. UC QB Tony Pike threw for 241 yds (83%) with a 2-0 ratio in his fi rst start. While
this will be his fi rst road start, the Rubber Bowl is not known as a very imposing stadium. Cincy only
led 24-20 in the 3Q vs Miami but a 72 yd IR TD broke the game open as they scored 21 unanswered
pts. They had a 393-301 yd edge but were outFD’d 22-20. Akron had a 357-223 yd edge and was +4
TO but only won 22-3 over Army as they had trouble in the red zone with only 2 TD while settling for
4 FG attempts (1 miss). UA QB Chris Jacquemain is avg 240 (59%) with a 7-5 ratio. Cincy has the off
(#49-82) and def (#65-103) edges. The Zips are all’g 4.9 ypc while UC is avg 4.3 ypc.
EAST CAROLINA 35 Houston 27 - This is UH’s 1st trip here since ‘03. LY UH missed 2 FG’s in the
last 2:00 and was upset at home 37-35 (-13’), which cost them the CUSA West title. UH is coming
off 3 SU & ATS losses and is essentially playing their 4th road game in a row (game vs AF moved to
Dallas due to Ike). LW Houston trailed Colo St 21-3 in 1H, but actually had a chance for the win. The
Cougars reached the Rams’ 15 yd line with :08 to go, but instead of kicking the tying FG, HC Sumlin
went for the win. QB Keenum’s pass was int in EZ and the Cougars fell 28-25, despite outgaining CSU
473-422. EC is coming off their 1st loss, 30-24 to NCSt in OT. The EC def allowed 384 ttl yds to the
Wolfpack and has our #115 pass eff def. Holtz is 17-8 ATS in CUSA play, but the visitor is 6-1 ATS (6-2
SU) in the series. Both teams have byes on deck and although the UH coaching staff is new, expect
the players to remember LY’s disappointing loss and come ready to play.
NOTRE DAME 30 Purdue 20 - PU has won in South Bend just once S/‘76 (1-14 since). LY ND (+21’)
trailed 23-0 at the half as PU had 3 short FG’s. With Clausen benched for Sharpley in the 3Q ND got
in the backdoor as the Irish passed for a season high 377 yds. Weis is 6-13 as a HF and Tiller is 5-2
as an AD. The Irish are off a 23-7 loss to MSU in which they missed 2 FG’s, were int’d in the EZ and
had another int set up a 22 yd TD drive. Clausen (209 ypg, 57% 6-6 ratio) was sk’d for the 1st time
in ‘08 (3) by the Spartans and ND ran for just 16 yds (#111 NCAA avg 78 ypg). The Irish are #35 in
pass eff D. Despite being outgained 440-344, Tiller became PU’s all-time winningest coach thanks to
a 46 yd TD run by Sheets (352, 5.7 in ‘08) with 1:00 left. Painter (251 ypg, 59%, 3-3 ratio) is just #73
in the NCAA in pass eff (2 spots behind Clausen). The Boilers are #16 in pass eff D. The Boilers have
big ST’s edge (#33-112) but the Irish have edges on both sides (#62-67 off & #42-70 D) and continue
their series dominance in front of TD Jesus.
NEBRASKA 27 Virginia Tech 17 - Their only meeting was the ‘96 Orange Bowl (Neb 41-21). NU is
9-2 SU at home vs the ACC. This is Neb’s 4th straight HG and the Huskers are 26-3 SU at home
in night games and have scored at least 35 pts in each of their L/6 gms. LY Pelini’s D (at LSU) held
VT to just 7 pts & 149 ttl yds. VT is off a pair of ACC games and making a rare trip to the Midwest
while the Huskers are fresh off a bye and hungry after 2007’s losing year, however, they have huge
conf games on deck vs ranked MO & TT. QB Ganz is avg 240 ypg (64%) with a 5-3 ratio. Neb has a
solid off edge (#14-86) while VT has a slight def edge (#30-43). VT is 5-2 as an AD (or 11-2 as AF).
QB Taylor, who took over for Glennon after Wk 1, is avg 140 ypg offense. Although VT is 3-1 on the
season, they are being outgained by an avg 328-272 and outFD’d 65-59. LW’s win vs NC was the 2nd
biggest comeback under Beamer.
WASHINGTON 30 Stanford 20 - Both teams are in poor technical spots this week as Stanford enters
their 3rd AG in 4 wks while UW is off 3 losses to Top 25 teams. Willingham was the HC at Stanford from ‘95-’01 and has now beaten his former program in 4 of 5 matchups SU & ATS holding the Cardinal
to a miniscule 11 ppg. SU, who erased a HT defi cit vs SJSt LW at the Farm, pulled out their only win
of the ‘06 season holding UW to just 161 ttl yds in Seattle. UW is off a bye but has been ugly as a HF
going 0-5 ATS the L/2Y including surrendering 4 outright upsets! The Cardinal however have been just
as bad losing their last 4 ATS as AD’s (all double digit spreads) making us lean towards the Huskies
getting their 1st win of the ‘08 season here.
CALIFORNIA 48 Colorado St 10 - The Bears, who dropped an expected win 2 wks ago vs MD, enter
this gm not only trying to redeem themselves but also the P10 who has lost all 5 gms TY vs the MWC
(1-4 ATS). One thing they will need to address is their pass blocking after allowing 5 sks to the Terps
(25 sks in previous 28 gms). LY CSU scored 2 TD’s in :53 to pull within 34-28 with 2:54 left vs #10 Cal,
covering as a HD and they upset Cal in 2003 23-21 (+2’) here in Berkeley. The Rams held off a late
comeback attempt by Houston to pull out the home upset (+6). While Cal is 0-6 ATS as a 20+ pt fav
and has Ariz St on deck, they are fresh off a bye and have big edges in off (#12-103), def (#19-98) and
coaching making CSU’s 1st true AG with a young QB one the Rams may want to soon forget.
GEORGIA 27 Alabama 17 - Alabama has lost the last 3 in this series (Richt 3-0 in 7 yrs) incl last year’s
26-23 loss in OT. The visitor is 4-1 ATS since ‘94. UGA is 18-8-1 ATS as a single digit HF. UGA is off
a long trip to ASU and they didn’t return home until early Sunday morning which could eat up some
of the prep time for this gm. Bama is off a 49-14 blowout win over Ark in which they rushed for 328
yds (9.4) incl 162 by leading rusher Coffee (242, 6.5) delivering us a 4★ LPS Winner. QB JP Wilson
has only avg 156 ypg (63%) with a 4-1 ratio. UGA is off a decisive win over ASU and their stifl ing #4
defense held ASU to 212 total yds incl just 4 rush yds (60 rush ypg, 2.5 on yr). Bama’s #14 D has held
opps to 43 rush ypg (1.9), but hasn’t faced anywhere near the caliber of UGA RB Moreno (306, 6.7).
UGA QB Stafford has avg 211 ypg (62%) with a 4-0 ratio. Bama has been better than expected, but
we think UGA has the talent edge and a big home edge in this battle of Top 10 teams.
CLEMSON 27 Maryland 20 - MD posted a thrilling 13-12 last-second win in their last visit to Death
Valley delivering another Big Dog POW outright upset (+19’). MD has been outscored 34-10 in the 4Q
the L/5 vs CU. LY RB Davis guaranteed a win over a banged up MD team and CU dominated leading
30-10 before allowing a late 92 yd drive for a garbage TD. Davis and Spiller each topped 100 yards
rushing. CU only had a IAA foe LW and has a bye on deck but is just 3-10 as an ACC HF. LW CU had
its 1st shutout in 2 yrs with their 54-0 win over SC State. QB Harper is avg 198 ypg (66%) with a 3-4
ratio. RB Davis has 249 rush yds (5.7) and Spiller 206 (6.4). The Tigers do have the off & def edges
(off #28-44, def #23-68). The Terps have covered 4 straight in Death Valley. RB Scott (#5 NCAA avg
135.7 ypg), who missed LW w/a shoulder inj, should be ok here and has 407 rush yds (7.3). WR
Heyward-Bey, one of the most underrated WR’s, has 12 (20.8!). QB Turner is avg 147 ypg (60%) with
a 5-5 ratio. Both teams are tied at #2 in the Atlantic Div behind WF.
Fresno St 23 UCLA 20 - FSU is 18-29 SU vs the P10 but only 1-6 vs UCLA. They’ve met 4x S/’95 &
FSU is 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS. In their most recent meeting FSU recorded their lone win with a 17-9 (+3)
victory in the ‘03 Silicon Valley Classic. FSU HC Hill is 14-6 SU vs in-state foes & almost upset #1
USC in ‘05 (42-50, +23). Fresno has the edge on off (#37-107) & ST (#20-41) but UCLA gets the nod
on D (#50-66). UCLA has only had 4 gms vs current WAC foes in the L/20Y (FSU 3x, BSU in ‘99). The
Bruins are a young tm with just 9 starters back & are in a P10 sandwich. UCLA opened the Neuheisel
era with a thrilling comeback OT win over Tenn (27-24, +7’). But that high was quickly defl ated after
a 59-0 loss at BYU (1st time UCLA was shutout S/’01 at USC, 27-0) followed by a home loss to Ariz
LW. UCLA must improve its run gm as the Bruins are avg just 2.0 ypc rushing (#117 in the NCAA).
UCLA has also not scored an off TD in L/2 gms. FSU’s mantra is “Anybody, Anytime, Anywhere” &
that certainly applies here. The Bulldogs are coming of a grueling 55-54 2OT win over Toledo LW.
S/‘00, FSU has played 27 BCS tms going 12-15 SU (19-8 ATS) & 11 of those losses were by 9 pts or
less - incl 6 gms by 3 pts or less.
Bowling Green 20 WYOMING 13 - 1st meeting. BG HC Brandon was the WR cch at WY from ‘87-’90
and his tm is off a bye (2-7 ATS) while WY is in a BYU/NM sandwich but is 12-7 ATS vs non-conf. Three
weeks ago a weaker Ohio tm (that deserved the win) traveled to the altitude and WY was lucky to escape
with a 1 pt come-from-behind win while being outgained 287-271. WY was rolled 44-0 LW by BYU, with
the Cougs delivering as our Early Bird POW. WY is 5-1 SU but just 1-5 ATS vs MAC foes. QB Crum is avg
just 98 ypg (55%) with a 2-4 ratio while BG QB Sheehan avg 208 ypg (63%) with a 2-3 ratio. BG took the
bye wk to heal up some nagging inj’s and after the loss to Boise, QB Sheehan said “we should be putting
up at least 28 ppg... I don’t think we’ve reached our potential yet.” This could be the week BG’s goals are
fi nally realized as they have a HUGE off (#75-118) edge, while the D’s are close (WY #64-67).
Oregon 45 WASHINGTON ST 17 - QB injuries are the main storyline of this gm as the Ducks and
Cougs could both be down to at least their 3rd string signal-callers. The Ducks travel to Pullman after
falling short in a late 4Q charge vs Boise and now have a date with USC on deck. With starters Costa
& Roper already out, UO lost 3rd stringer Masoli to a concussion (check status) and may have to use
1 or both true frosh QB’s (Harper & Thomas) TW. LY, Oregon marched out to a 40-0 HT lead (390 total
yds) in Eugene and is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in Pullman. WSU won as expected vs IAA Port St LW getting
their 1st victory but has struggled severely so far TY. They also have QB issues of their own as their
#1 (Lopina) & #2 (Rogers) both went down. RFr Lobbestael came in for a solid 2H & may get the nod
here trying to improve an off that has avg just 234 yds vs IA opp’s. The Cougs are 8-4 ATS as a HD
but were pounded on the ground vs Baylor (4★ Winner) & Cal (3★ Winner) allowing a combined 817
rush yds in those 2 gms. The Ducks meanwhile have avg 299 ypg on the ground TY & should make
this once hostile environment of Martin Stadium a nice walk in the park.
OKLAHOMA 34 Tcu 17 - TCU has pulled the outright upset in each of the L/2 visits to Norman (20-7
in ‘96 +9’, 17-10 in ‘05 +25) and is 4-1 SU and ATS vs the B12 over 3Y. OU is 10-3-1 as a HF, off a bye
and will give this full focus. QB Bradford is avg 294 ypg (79%) with a 12-2 ratio. OU has been dominant,
outgaining foes by 324 ypg (41 ppg) & is on an 8-0 SU & 7-0 ATS non-conf run outscoring tms on avg
59-11 (50+ every gm). TCU has been as equally impressive after a waxing of SMU (288 yd edge).
They are outscoring foes on avg 43-8, outgaining them 423-183 & are on an 8-1 SU & ATS streak. QB
Dalton is avg 152 ypg (64%) with a 0-1 ratio but is the tm’s #2 rusher. TCU will not be intimidated here
(LY led Texas 10-0 at HT) but is playing their 2nd straight AG and does have the MWC slate ahead. OU
will see its best opp to date, but is an amazing 56-2 SU (10-2 ATS streak) under Stoops at Memorial
Stadium and will learn from the past not to take this Horned Frogs tm for granted.
FLORIDA ST 26 Colorado 13 - These two have met twice and both times we have used a LPS on
FSU and won with a 47-7 win at home (-20) in ‘03 and a 16-6 win (-4’) LY (up 16-0 and CU got most
of their yds in garbage time). While this is in Jacksonville, FSU will have a full crowd and humidity
edge and have their team at full strength for the 1st time after season opening suspensions. This is
CU’s fi rst real road game and they are off a huge Thurs night win vs #21 WV. The Buffs do have #7
Texas on deck (B12 opener) and are 3-8 ATS on the road. QB Hawkins is avg 218 ypg (70%) with a
6-3 ratio. FSU fi nally played a IA foe LW and sputtered vs WF with 7 TO’s and only 12 FD & 220 ttl yds.
Seminole QB’s are only avg 229 ypg (53%) with a 6-3 ratio. FSU is just 5-12 as a HF and does have
in-state Miami on deck, but Bowden will have his tm ready & will stress ball security during the wk.
UTEP 27 Ucf 23 - LY UTEP was one of 2 opp (7 total) to cover in Bright House and they only trailed
29-20 late (+21). This is UCF’s 1st trip to El Paso in CUSA play and they are 1-8 (1-6 under O’Leary)
as an AF. UCF is coming off a loss at BC in which they were outgained 411-252. QB Greco threw 3
int and now has a 2-3 ratio and has completed just 53% of his passes and was replaced at times by
true frosh Calabrese. UCF is just 3-10 SU & ATS in the 2nd of B2B road gms and is 9-16 ATS on the
road under O’Leary. UTEP is still looking for their 1st win after losing “The Battle of I-10” to NMSt LW.
UTEP was without leading rusher Jackson (ankle, check status), but rushed for 277 yds after starting
QB Vittatoe (91% of tm’s pass att’s L/2Y) was lost to an ankle inj after the 3rd series (check status)
and they went to the Zone Read Option directed by 3rd stringer Thomas. UTEP is 3-1 as a conf HD
under Price. UCF has struggled on the road and look for that trend to continue.
NEW MEXICO ST 27 New Mexico 24 - All eyes in the “Land of Enchantment” will be focused on
this one which is for state bragging rights & the Aggies would love nothing more than to end the
stranglehold the Lobos have had on them. In the “Battle of 1-25” for the Maloof Trophy, the Lobos
have won 5 in a row SU (2-4 ATS) & have claimed 32 of the L/39 meetings. NM is on a 3-8 ATS (6-5
SU) streak & followed up its win over Ariz two weeks ago by getting blown away by Tulsa LW in a
game the Lobos trailed by as many as 49 pts while surrendering 602 ttl yds. The dog in this series is
7-3 ATS (4-6 SU). NMSU has the edge on off (#94-106) but NM gets the nod on def (#63-118) & ST
(#97-116). LY NMSU had a 30-20 FD edge & QB Holbrook hit 47-63 (the most comp’s ever all’d by
NM) for 473 yds & 4 TD’s as NMSU almost got the backdoor cover as the Aggies were SOD at the
NM 2. Holbrook shook off some rust from the opener by passing for 329 yds & 5 TD’s LW. The 3-3-5
defense will be on display here by both tms. Aggies DC Dunn spent 7 yrs at NM in the ‘80’s & taught
current Lobos HC Long the scheme when Dunn was the DC & Long was the DB cch in ‘80 for NM.
The Lobos host Wyoming in their HC next week while the Aggies have a bye on deck.
SAN DIEGO ST 34 Idaho 20 - The Vandals have lost 10 straight non-conf AG’s by an avg of 29 ppg.
SDSt has a comb 16-3 SU rec’d vs the newest members of the WAC (Idaho, NMSt, Utah St) but is
just 3-9 ATS at home vs non-conf but surprisingly 8-4 as a HF overall. SDSt was clearly in a letdown
vs SJSt 2 wks ago, and was trying to change up the off (avg’d 52 pass att 1st 2, just 29 pass att vs
SJSt). During the bye week SDSt decided to go back to the off of the fi rst 2 wks and now takes on
Idaho’s #59 pass D all’g 257 ypg (64%) with a 14-5 ratio (and starting S Keo was inj’d LW, check
status). LW Idaho was only down 21-17 at the end of the 3Q vs Utah St before all’g 21 unanswered
points while being outgained 580-271 on the night. SDSt is 8-3 ATS off a bye and catches Idaho in
their 3rd road game in 5 weeks and in a WAC sandwich.
HAWAII 23 San Jose St 20 - UH has won the L/7 gms (L/4 in Honolulu). SJSt is 4-8 SU but is 8-4 ATS
in this series. In their last visit to Aloha Stadium in ‘06, SJSt lost 54-17 (+25). The Spartans are 17-9 ATS incl a current 8-3 ATS run. However, SJSt is 11-13 SU (14-9-1 ATS) under HC Tomey in WAC gms
& the Spartans are 1-17 SU & 7-12 ATS as an AD. Tomey was the HC at Hawaii (‘77-’86) & he turned the
Warriors program around (63-46-3) before moving on to Arizona. Tomey, a fan-favorite with the Hawaiian
locals, fl irted this past offseason with taking the UH AD job but opted to stay. UH has the edge on off
(#88-105) & ST (#86-94) but SJSt gets the nod on def (#47-80). UH expected to see some dropoff in
off production TY from its #3 rated off in the NCAA LY but 3 gms into | | | | |
