#144307 - 09/21/08 01:25 PM
9/28
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
Offline
|
|
Roll em out !
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144435 - 09/22/08 10:02 PM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ben Burns
After three straight poor defensive performances to begin the season, the Rams will be trying to do whatever it takes to control the ball and keep the Bills offense off the field. Note that while the Rams' defense has admittedly struggled, the offense has also struggled to put points on the board. While the Bills are off to a great 3-0 start, they're still a team which relies heavily on it's defense to win football games. That's particularly true when playing on the road. In this season's lone road outing, the Bills traveled to Jacksonville and limited the a strong Jaguars team to just 16 points, en route to a 20-16 victory. That game snuck below the number with brought the 'under' to 4-0 the Bills' last four road games and 8-2 the last 10. Looking back further and we find that the 'under' is a profitable 12-5 in Buffalo's 17 road games since the start of the 2006 season. Note that in their last seven road games, the Bills held six of the opponents to 17 points or less. Look for this afternoon's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again. Consider the UNDER
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144546 - 09/25/08 06:41 PM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
bug
Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/29/06
Posts: 2892
Loc: alabama
|
Online
|
|
NORTH COAST SPORTS
PRO TOTAL POW
ARIZONA/JETS.... OVER 45
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144654 - 09/26/08 08:34 PM
Re: 9/28
[Re: bug]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
** Houston 24 JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
2 Star Selection
** San Francisco 26 NEW ORLEANS (-5.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I’ll take San Francisco in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion
Atlanta 19 CAROLINA (-7.0) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I’ll probably regret passing on the Falcons as a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion in this game at +7 or more.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144655 - 09/26/08 08:34 PM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
WILD BILL
Browns +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 45 Arizona-Jets (5 units)
New Orleans -6 (5 units)
Atlanta +7 (5 units)
Titans -3 (5 units)
Packers +1 (5 units)
Washington +12 1/2 (5 units)
Steelers -7 1/2 (5 units)
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144748 - 09/27/08 07:20 PM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Pointwise Phone Plays
2*
Buffalo
San Francisco
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144751 - 09/27/08 10:48 PM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
tinfw17
Member
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 1814
Loc: TX
|
|
Online
|
|
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Carolina -7 vs Atlanta
Pittsburgh -5 vs Baltimore
Single Plays
Houston +7 vs Jacksonville
Tampa Bay -1 vs Green Bay
San Francisco +5 vs New Orleans
San Diego -7.5 vs Oakland
Minnesota +3 vs Tennessee
Tennessee/Minnesota Under 35.5
Carolina/Atlanta Under 39.5
Arizona/NY Jets Over 44.5
Washington/Dallas Under 46
Chicago/Philadelphia Under 40.5
San Diego/Oakland Under 45.5
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144754 - 09/27/08 11:52 PM
Re: 9/28
[Re: tinfw17]
|
Duces
Junior
Registered: 09/28/06
Posts: 123
Loc: Alabama, USA
|
|
Offline
|
|
Ben Burns and Larry Ness? Thanks in advance
Burns has 4 huge plays Sunday and he is on fire
Edited by Duces (09/28/08 12:00 AM)
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144755 - 09/28/08 01:07 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: Duces]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Tim Trushel
20* Tampa Bay
10* San Francisco
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144756 - 09/28/08 01:08 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
EZWINNERS
5 STAR: (926) MINNESOTA (-1.5)(-$125) over Kansas City
(Listing Baker and Duckworth)Risking $625 to win $500
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144757 - 09/28/08 01:13 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
GOLD SHEET
LATE TELEPHONE SELECTIONS
1.5 units = #210 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
1 unit = #199 HOUSTON TEXANS
1 unit = #206 CAROLINA PANTHERS
1 unit = #213 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144763 - 09/28/08 10:07 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
salba
Sophmore
Registered: 05/26/08
Posts: 50
Loc: pa
|
|
Offline
|
|
RED ZONE SPORTS........
SKINS + THE POINTS SUNDAY.......
PERFECT AT SWAMI'S SITE IN THE NFL
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144765 - 09/28/08 10:42 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
SPYLOCK
Arizona......3 units
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144768 - 09/28/08 10:44 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (2-3)
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (1-3).
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-3)
5* BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC
Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of
the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come
out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and
12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with
revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on
Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With
Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look
for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh
is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.
SUNDAY
4* BEST BET
Cleveland over CINCINNATI by 7
division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in
overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off
a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions
are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that
with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season
are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7
points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offi ng and
the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look
for Romeo to come calling today.
3* BEST BET
Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to
take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard fi eld goal at the buzzer
lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams
last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their fi rst win of the
campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses.
We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more
than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when
taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5
ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing.
No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off
an away game. Take Tex.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144769 - 09/28/08 10:46 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
** Houston 24 JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
Houston has had to start the season with a 3rd consecutive road game due to the postponement of their week 2 home game. Playing a 3rd straight road game in the NFL is generally a bad thing (88-117-1 ATS), but teams that lost the first 2 of those 3 games both as underdogs are actually 27-13-1 ATS in that 3rd road game. Houston, meanwhile, is 23-8-1 ATS in their history as an underdog after consecutive losses, including 6-2 ATS under coach Kubiak, so don’t overreact to the Texans’ first two games. Houston has obviously not played up to expectations so far, but facing two of the best defensive teams in the league on the road ( Pittsburgh and Tennessee ) is bound to make a team look bad. Houston had a very good offense last season and quarterback Matt Schaub has still averaged 6.5 yards per pass play as the Texans’ quarterback (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Houston has also found a running back in rookie Steve Slaton, who has run for 151 yards at 5.1 ypr in 2 games, so the Texans are still a better than average offensive team that should be able to score on Jaguars’ defense that has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. The Jaguars have the reputation as being a good defensive team, but they were just average defensively last season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and have certainly not been good this year. Jacksonville ’s offense hasn’t been good either thanks to an offensive line missing 3 starters. The Jagars lost starting C Brad Meester for half the season in training camp and then lost both starting guards for the season in game 1. The result has been an inconsistent rushing attack that has averaged only 4.0 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr) and a quarterback (David Garrard) that doesn’t have time to find open receivers down the field. Garrard has completed 66% of his passes, but he’s averaged just 9.8 yards per completion and a sorry 5.0 yards per pass play after the 9 sacks are taken into account. The line did play well last week against the Colts and the subs will certainly get better with more experience, so I do still rate the Jaguars’ offense as better than average even though they’ve averaged just 4.5 yppl in their first 3 games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl). Houston ’s defense was a bit below average last season and they have started this season about the same (5.4 yppl allowed to mediocre Tennessee and Pittsburgh offenses that would average 5.3 yppl at home against an average defensive team). I think there is a ton of potential for Houston to improve defensively this season with all the young stars in the defensive front 7, but I rate that unit a bit worse than average currently. Overall my ratings favor Jacksonville by just 5 ½ points and using this year’s games only would favor the Jaguars by just 4 ½ points. In addition to the line value favoring Houston , the Jaguars apply to a negative 20-55-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation. I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
2 Star Selection
** San Francisco 26 NEW ORLEANS (-5.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I really wanted to make the 49ers a Best Bet last week against Detroit (my ratings favor them by 13 points), but a negative 21-58-2 ATS situation that applied to the Niners caused me to downgrade San Francisco to a Strong Opinion. The oddsmakers and the public still aren’t giving enough credit to the 49ers for being a good team this season, as San Francisco has clearly been better than the Saints. The Niners won at Seattle two weeks ago with a 5.8 yards per play to 4.9 yppl advantage and they dominated Detroit 6.2 yppl to 4.4 yppl in a 31-13 home win last week. San Francisco’s only blemish was a fluke opening day loss to Arizona in which the Niners averaged 6.8 yppl while allowing the explosive Cardinals’ attack just 4.3 yppl. San Francisco was -5 in turnover margin against the Cardinals with 4 of those being lost fumbles, so that loss should be considered random bad luck and not a mark against the Niners (I actually consider that game a huge plus for them). San Francisco has out-gained their 3 opponents 6.2 yppl to 4.5 yppl as Mike Martz has turned the offense into a force while the defense has gone from decent to very good with added talent surrounding star LB Patrick Willis. New Orleans will be a good test for the defense, as the Saints have averaged 6.5 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team. New Orleans , while better than San Francisco offensively, is still having problems on defense, as evidenced by the 6.3 yppl that they’ve allowed (to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). New Orleans is 1.3 yppl better than average offensively this season, but they are 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. The Niners, meanwhile, have been 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively – for an overall edge of 0.6 yppl over the Saints (+1.4 yppl to +0.8 yppl). The 49ers also have better special teams and my ratings only favor the Saints by 1 ½ points in this game while using this year’s stats only would favor the 49ers by 2 points. The technical analysis is a bit confusing, as the Niners apply to a 3-20-4 ATS subset of a 27-72-1 ATS road letdown situation while New Orleans applies to a negative 20-55-1 ATS early season home favorite situation. San Francisco also applies to a very good 17-2-1 ATS early season indicator that plays on winning teams that were losing teams last year (that the public hasn’t figured out is good yet), and the Niners apply to a very strong 55-13-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is actually 1-0 ATS in the only game that intersected with that 3-20-4 ATS situation that SF applies to. Overall the technical analysis favors the Niners a bit and my ratings favor San Francisco to cover as well. I’ll take San Francisco in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion
Atlanta 19 CAROLINA (-7.0) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
Atlanta has beaten up on two of the worst teams in the league, Detroit and Atlanta , but they lost 9-24 at Tampa Bay in their only road game of the year and my first thought was that something similar would happen here. However, the Falcons have been better than expected even after compensating for playing two of their games against the Lions and Chiefs. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 6.9 yards per pass play, but those numbers are skewed by a couple of long passes and he’s unlikely to continue to average 15 yards per completion. Ryan’s poor 53% completion rate is a better indicator of his future performance and I rate Ryan as 1.1 yards per pass play worse than average. Even with that being the case the Falcons still have a decent offense thanks to the running of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, who have combined for 552 rushing yards at 6.1 ypr. That average isn’t too much of a fluke given that Turner has averaged 5.7 ypr on his 287 career carries and Norwood has averaged 6.1 ypr on 233 career carries. Teams that can run that well are generally pretty good bets as underdogs even if their pass attack isn’t good and the Falcons apply to a very strong 55-13-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 21-1 ATS more recently. Carolina is struggling offensively but solid on defense, as is usually the case, and my ratings favor the Panthers by 7 ½ points – so the line is pretty fair. Using this year’s games only would favor Carolina by just 4 points but I get 7 points if I adjust Ryan’s numbers to reflect a more reasonable yards per catch average (since a few long gains have skewed his average). Carolina is only 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more under coach John Fox so the Panthers are not to be trusted laying big points. While I should be betting Atlanta based on that 55-13-2 ATS indicator and a fair line, I am having a tough time pulling the trigger since my first instinct was that they’d lose by about 10 points in this game. I’ll probably regret passing on the Falcons as a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion in this game at +7 or more.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144772 - 09/28/08 10:48 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
Brandon Lang
Last Week 1 win 2 losses
Week before that: 0 wins 3 losses
Chiefs +10 vs. Broncos
The only organization in America that's had a worse September than the Chiefs is Dow Jones. Not only has Kansas City lost all three of its games, it has gotten outscored 78-32, including double-digit blowout losses to the lowly Falcons and Raiders. So what makes me think that the Chiefs can hang with the undefeated Broncos this week? One reason: My 12-year-old nephew and 10 of his buddies could march down the field and score on Denver's sieve-like defense. The Broncos are coming off two home games in which they surrendered 38 and 31 points, and escaped with two wins by a combined three points. So how can you trust such a porous defense to go on the road, in a hostile venue, against a rival, and cover double digits? I can't. And since the Chiefs are wisely going back to veteran QB Damon Huard in this game and former All-Pro RB Larry Johnson got on track last week at Atlanta with 121 rushing yards, I fully expect Kansas City to put up some points in this one.
Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry; the host is 11-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 15 clashes; and Kansas City is an incredible 18-4-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home underdog against AFC West foes. Bottom line: You may not have made any money this week supporting one floundering organization (Wall Street), but you can certainly make some on the Chiefs. Take the points.
49ers +5½ at Saints
Three things you can count on every September: The New York Mets will choke away a playoff berth, FOX will unveil a new reality show entitled, Yes, I Have No Dignity, and the Saints' "much-improved defense" will be exposed as being not improved at all. To that latter point: A week after letting Jason Campbell and the pedestrian Redskins' offense put up 29 points and 455 total yards, New Orleans went to Denver last week and got torched for 34 points and 369 yards. So, in a nutshell, the same rule applies here as in the Denver-Kansas City contest: It's difficult to cover a big pointspread when you can't stop an opponent from scoring. And make no mistake, this 49ers offense can put points on the board, having rolled up 33 and 31 on the Seahawks and Lions, respectively, the last two weeks. In fact, San Francisco quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan has a higher passer rating (104.6) than that of Saints QB Drew Brees (103.9).
Speaking of Brees, sure, he's at the controls of an explosive weapon, but right now it's a weapon missing too many bullets. His top wide receiver, Marques Colston went down with a thumb injury in Week 1 and is still several weeks away from returning. Then this week, tight end Jeremy Shockey had hernia surgery and he's down for more than a month. Memo to Reggie Bush: Might want to check your health insurance coverage; you know how these things tend to happen in threes. New Orleans is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite in the Superdome, and they're laying too many points here.
Cardinals +2 at Jets
My sources informed me that Brett Favre sent a text message to Packers GM Ted Thompson this week that read as follows: "Hey Ted – Uh, any chance that $25 million please-stay-retired offer is still on the table?" Seriously, how do you think ol' No. 4 is feeling right now about his decision to un-retire and hitch his Hall-of-Fame wagon to the moribund Jets? His receivers can't get open, his offensive line provides about as much protection as a punctured condom, and his defense couldn't play dead in a western. (I think my 82-year-old grandmother could've gotten free in the Jets' secondary and scored a touchdown Monday night in San Diego - and she uses a walker to get around!) And if that's not bad enough, there's Favre's new coach, Eric "The Weenie" Mangini, who brilliantly decided to try an onside kick Monday after narrowing the deficit against the Chargers to 17-14. If they handed out Ph.D.s for surrendering momentum, "Mangenious" would have to build a new mantel.
So now the Jets, with a gimpy Favre (ankle injury) and playing on a short week after a miserable 3,000-mile flight home from San Diego, have to face an improving Cardinals team that prudently chose to remain on the East Coast after last week's tough 24-17 loss at Washington rather than go back home to Arizona and travel all the way back to New Jersey. Besides, do you think after watching Philip Rivers and his arsenal of weapons shred the Jets' defense Monday that Arizona's trio of Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin are drooling over the fact that it's their turn to put up big numbers? Finally, remember that it was just two weeks ago that the Jets lost convincingly at home to Matt Cassel and the Patriots – the same Patriots who lost by 25 points at home to Miami last week. Throw in the fact that the Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and this one's a no-brainer.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144774 - 09/28/08 10:53 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
goulagirl
Freshman
Registered: 05/31/08
Posts: 43
|
|
Offline
|
|
Hank Goldberg (ESPN)
Tn
SF
Philly
Cinn
Houston
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144775 - 09/28/08 11:10 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: goulagirl]
|
Duces
Junior
Registered: 09/28/06
Posts: 123
Loc: Alabama, USA
|
|
Offline
|
|
BEN BURNS
RAIDERS/CHARGERS UNDER
I had the Chargers in their Monday night victory over the Jets and I'll have to admit that their aerial attack has looked pretty impressive. Everyone else has seen the same thing though and that has helped to cause this afternoon's total to be generously high. Keep in mind that just because a team is involved in a high-scoring Monday night game, doesn't mean that it will play in another shootout the following Sunday. In fact, the opposite is often true. Just look at last week. The Cowboys and Eagles combined for a whopping 88 points on Monday night. Last week, due in part to the Monday night results, both those teams saw extremely high over/under lines. The Eagles had an over/under line of 45 vs. the Steelers while the Cowboys and Packers line was all the way in the 50's. What happened? Both games fell comfortably below the total. The Cowboys and Packers combined for 43 points while the Eagles and Steelers managed a mere 21. Looking back at recent meetings between the Chargers and Raiders and we find that none of the four games from the past two seasons had an over/under line which was greater than 44. Note that three of those four games finished below the total and none finished with more than 47 points. Looking back further and we find that seven of the last eight series meetings have fallen below the total. The fact that Oakland was involved in a high-scoring game at Buffalo last week has also helped to keep this o/u line above the key number of 44. A closer look at the game shows that it was actually low-scoring until the fourth quarter as the teams had only 23 points through the first three quarters with the Raiders having allowed only seven. I'm not sold on the Raiders' offense. Through three games, JaMarcus Russell has completed only 51.6% of his passes for 391 yards. They scored 23 points last week but a closer look shows that they only had 10 first downs and that they were 2-of-12 on third-down conversions. Additionally, four of their five scoring drives were for fewer than 27 yards, showing that they were rather fortunate to manage as many points as they did. They've scored 17 or less in nine straight games against the Chargers. I do like the Raider defense though. They've got a talented secondary and they've improved their ability to stop the run. That being said, I still expect the Chargers to feature a heavier dose of the run then they've shown through the first three weeks. Not only is Tomlinson slowly getting healthier but they know that's where they've been successful here in the past. Looking at their last two games here at Oakland and we find that the Chargers ran the ball a combined 81 times! As for Oakland, they have run the ball an average of 36 times per game through the first three weeks, which is the third most rushing attempts in the entire league. As you know, frequent running plays typically help to slow the clock down. Look for that to be the case today and for the final score to stay below the generous number. *AFC West TOY
ST LOUIS
Give the Bills credit. They're off to a great (3-0) start. However, I still don't believe that they're ready to be laying more than a touchdown on the road. Last week, the Bills were at home and they barely beat Oakland, winning by one point. The previous week, in their lone road game, they won by four points. Dating back to last season and we find that the Bills are only 4-5 SU in their nine road games. A closer look shows that none of those four victories came by more than 10 points and that only one came by more four points. Note that the Bills don't typically lay this many points on the road but that they're just 1-3 ATS since 1992 when listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. It's true that the Rams have looked pretty bad through their first three games. Ok, really bad. However, I really don't think that they've given up on the season yet. It should also be noted that the Rams have played a very tough schedule. Two of their games were on the road (at Philly and at Seattle) and their lone home game came against the defending Super Bowl champions. While the playoffs are now certainly a very big longshot, the Rams do know that anything is possible in the NFC West, where every team has at least one loss already. If the Rams want some inspiration, they can look at their opponent. Last season, the Bills got off to an 0-3 start. Entering Week 4, everyone was really down on the team and they had been outscored by a combined margin of 64-10 (26-3 and 38-7) in the previous two games. However, the Bills came home for Week 4 and managed a hard fought win. That turned their season around and by a Week 13 they were all the way up to 7-6. This week's matchup has some similarities to another Week 4 matchup from last season, Houston at Atlanta. The Texans came in riding high and with a winning record. The Falcons came in with an 0-3 record and having been outscored by a 64-30 record. The betting public favored the Texans but I took the points with the Falcons. Atlanta won outright by double-digits. The point that I'm trying to make is that Week 4 is a really important time for winless teams. At 0-3, the playoffs are a huge longshot. However, at 0-4, there's no more pretending - it becomes virtually impossible to battle back and make the playoffs. Teams know that and they often respond with a really big effort, for the sake of pride, if nothing else. No team wants to write off the season before September is even finished. I believe that will be true of the Rams and that they will fight extremely hard this afternoon. I like the move to insert Trent Green in as the starting QB and feel that the veteran has something to prove and will play with a chip on his shoulder. Look for Green to provide a spark and for the Rams to play their best game of the season, giving their guests all they can handle and earning at least the cover. *Non-Conf. GOW
BEARS/EAGLES UNDER
These teams have faced each other five times this millennium. Four of the five games, including each of the last three, fell below the total. The last three meetings had scores of 19-16, 19-9 and 19-13. As you can see, there were a lot more field goals than touchdowns. I expect tonight's game to prove low-scoring once again. The Eagles have shown that they are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Monday night game at Dallas notwithstanding, they've also shown they have an en excellent defense. Last week, they limited Pittsburgh to a mere six points and in Week 1 they held the Rams to only three. That's two games out of three in which Philadelphia didn't allow a touchdown. Last week, the Eagles sacked Ben Roethlisberger eight times and forced him out of the game. They also sacked his backup, Byron Leftwich, a ninth time. Additionally, they forced three turnovers and produced a safety. The defense will need to be good again as Westbrook is questionable and McNabb isn't at 100%. As for the Bears, they've averaged a respectable 23 points per game. However, they still aren't exactly the type of team which keeps defensive coordinators up at night. As usual, Chicago likes to run the ball a lot. In fact, the Bears' 35 rushing attempts per game is the second most in the NFC. Only Atlanta, which enters Week 4 at 35.3, has more rushing attempts per game. As you know, frequent rushing plays typically help to keep the clock moving, leading to lower-scoring games. While the Bears like to run the ball, they'll be up against an Eagles' rushing defense which has allowed a mere 2.4 yards per rushing attempt and only 45.7 per game. Both those marks rank #1 in the league. Looking at some o/u stats and we find that the UNDER is 17-6-1 the last 24 times that the Eagles were listed as favorites, including a 3-1 mark when they've been listed as road favorites of three points or less. As for the Bears, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 19-6 the last 25 times that they were listed as home underdogs of three points or less. Look for those numbers to get even better this evening. *Main Event
TAMPA BAY
This line has fallen to the point where a victory should also ensure a cover and I believe that offers us excellent value with the Bucs. With identical 2-1 records, both teams have played well and both are relatively pleased with their starts. In my opinion, the situation strongly favors Tampa though. For starters, as you know, the Bucs are playing at home. Additionally, having played an early game last Sunday, they've had a full week's worth of rest. Conversely, the Packers are playing on a slightly shorter week as they are coming off a Sunday night game vs. the Cowboys. While the difference between playing during the day and at night isn't a huge deal, I personally believe that the Sunday night games are slightly tougher to recover from; if for no other reason than the players get extra excited for the nationally televised Sunday night affairs. That being said, the events which occurred during and at the end of those games are much more important to me than the time at which the game was played. After leaving everything on the field in an effort to get back in the game vs. the Cowboys, the Packers were visibly exhausted. If you look back at the game tapes, you'll notice numerous Green Bay players with hands on their hips. I had a real sense that all the emotion from the past couple of months of the "Favre saga" had finally caught up with them. If they won, they might have been able to continue to ride that "emotional high." I believe that losing that "big game" will be difficult to recover from though, particularly in the heat vs. a tough and still under-rated Tampa team. As for the Bucs, it's true that they also played a physically exhausting game. In fact, it went to overtime. However, I believe the fact that they won the game will help negate the fatigue factor and I also feel that Tampa will be able to build some positive momentum from the dramatic nature of the comeback victory. (The Bucs rallied from a 10 point 4th quarter deficit.) As QB Brian Griese had to say: "I think these types of wins can really propel your team I think the biggest thing that I'm going to take away, and hopefully every guy in this locker room will take away, is a belief that no matter where you are in the course of a game, you're going to get it done in the end. That's a powerful thing for a team, for everybody to believe in each other, offense, defense, special teams. That's a big piece of having a winning team." Note that Griese, who is in his second stint with the Bucs, threw for more than 400+ yards in the victory. Tampa is now 7-1 in his last eight starts. Griese will be facing a Green Bay secondary which will without cornerback Al Harris, who got hurt last week. Packers defensive coordinator Bob Sanders said was quoted as saying: "...certainly losing Al, a guy of that caliber, that hurts. Anytime you lose a guy like that, it's not good." Dating back to 1998, the Bucs are also 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in six meetings against the Packers here in Florida. The five Tampa victories came by an average of nine points and all came by a minimum of two. Looking back to the start of last season and we find the Bucs at a healthy 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10 home games. Look for them to build on those stats with a win and cover here, improving to 3-1 and remaining tied with Carolina (or possibly Atlanta) on top of the NFC South. *NFL GOM
Edited by Duces (09/28/08 11:16 AM)
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144776 - 09/28/08 11:10 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: goulagirl]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
Big AL
At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers plus the points over the New Orleans Saints Sean Payton's squad has suffered two huge injuries on the offensive side of the ball. In week 1, Marques Colston injured his thumb, and won't return until late October, at the earliest. And then, last week, TE Jeremy Shockey also sustained an injury. Not surprisingly, Drew Brees & Co. are 0-2 without their Pro Bowl wideout Colston on the field, and now will be even more hardpressed to stretch the defense with the likes of WRs Lance Moore, David Patten, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and TE Billy Miller trying to catch balls, and take defense's attention away from Reggie Bush. Even worse for New Orleans is the fact that Patten might miss this game as well, as he wasn't healthy enough to participate in Thursday's practice. Finally, complicating all of this is that New Orelans' offensive line is in flux with left tackle Jammal Brown (groin) and left guard Jamar Nesbit (suspension) out for Sunday's game too. The Saints' run game has stalled, and shouldn't be any better as SF can lock in on Reggie Bush, without any serious threats from the Saints' receivers. The 49ers have a decent offense, ranked 11th in the league, and prefer to hand the ball off to Frank Gore, who is one of the five best RBs in football. New Orleans defensive line is relatively weak, and has allowed an average of 5.3 yards per carry, and 119 yards per game, to RBs this year. Under new offensive coordinator Mike Martz, SF journeyman QB J.T. O'Sullivan has actually been quite efficient, and there's no reason to think that won't continue on Sunday, as Martz can use the run (with Gore against a weak defensive front) to set up the pass. NFC Conference Game of the Month on San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Division Game of the Year or my NFL Game of the Month on this Sunday!
At 4:05pm our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers. This will be the last start of the season for the likely National League Cy Young Award Winner, 24-year-old Giants righthander Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has been brilliant, but has lost his last two outings, the first time this season that this has happened, and there is no doubt that neither he nor his team want him to go out with three straight losses, even though it would be hard to imagine anyone else taking home the Cy Young Trophy (though Johan Santana should be considered if the Mets make the Playoffs). A much bigger post-season award question is who will win the NL MVP, and there is quite a bit of sentiment out there for the Dodgers' newly-acquired outfielder Manny Ramirez. While it's hard to imagine the coveted MVP trophy going to a player who has spent less than half the season playing in the NL, it is certainly very difficult to argue the Dodgers would have clinched their NL West Division crown without Ramirez. Rarely has there been such a clear case of a single player acquired at the trade deadline having turned an entire season around for his new team. However, with the Dodgers having clinched already, you can expect to see a lot of reserve players out on the field this afternoon and don't be surprised if Manny only makes a brief appearance, if he makes one at all. With the best pitcher in the league getting his last start at home against what may be a bunch of Triple-A opponents, that makes this selection pretty simple. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Monday Night Football Game of the Month, or my NFL Winners on Sunday.
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over the Tennessee Titans. Prior to the season, Minnesota was a sexy pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl after an offeseason in which it strengthened its defense. Unfortunately, it didn't strengthen itself at the quarterback position until last week, when it benched Tarvaris Jackson in favor of veteran Gus Frerotte. Frerotte righted the Vikings' sinking ship by completing 16 of 28 for 204 yards and a TD. That touchdown -- a 34-yard pass to Visanthe Shiancoe -- ended a seven-quarter TD drought for Minnesota. Both the Titans and Vikings feature strong defenses, and solid running games. Minnesota is led by perhaps the NFC's best RB in Adrian Peterson, while Tennessee has perhaps the #1 rookie RB in Chris Johnson, and a solid goal-line back in LenDale White. Though Tennessee is 3-0, it's been aided by a relatively weak schedule. The Titans' last two wins were against the winless Cincy Bengals and Houston Texans, while its first victory was against the solid, though 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. In contrast, Minnesota has faced three potential division winners in Indianapolis, Green Bay and Carolina. I look for even more improvement this week by the Vikings' offense under Frerotte, as Frerotte's ability to throw the deep ball will keep Tennessee's defense honest, and prevent the Titans from putting eight men in the box to stop Peterson and Chester Taylor. Finally, the Vikings fall into 10-0, 51-18, 39-11, 43-12 and 44-17 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 10-0 angle. What we want to do is play, in Week #4, on any 1-2 underdog of +1.5 (or more) points off a win, if it's matched up against a foe off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Look for Minnesota to win its second straight this Sunday afternoon. Take the points. NFL Game of the Month on the Vikings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Monday Night Game of the Month tomorrow!
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans plus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville likes to run the ball, but its struggles this season can be directly traced to its offensive linemen's injuries. Vince Manuwai and Maurice Williams are out for the season, and Brad Meester may miss Sunday's game as well. Look for former #1 pick DE Mario Williams to exploit this Jacksonville weakness, and even line him up at LB to rush the middle to force Jags' QB David Garrard into errant throws or create sacks. Garrard has been sacked nine times already this season, so Houston will have success there. On offense, expect coach Kubiak to shorten the game by handing the ball off to rookie RB Steve Slaton, who rushed for 116 yards last week in his first career start. Finally, Jack Del Rio's Jaguars fall into a NEGATIVE situation that 0-15 ATS since 1982. What we want to do is play against any unrested home favorite in Game 4 if it won the previous week after starting the season with two straight losses. After getting a "must-win" in Game 3 to avoid an 0-3 start, these "pretenders" come right back down to Earth in Game 4, and can't cover the spread as a home favorite. AFC South Game of the Year on the Houston Texans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Game of the Month today.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144777 - 09/28/08 11:18 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
Duces
Junior
Registered: 09/28/06
Posts: 123
Loc: Alabama, USA
|
|
Offline
|
|
Larry Ness
NOS -4.0 vs SF
The Saints have opened 1-2 but could just as easily be 3-0. The team led the Redskins 24-15 with just over six minutes left in the 4th quarter of a 29-24 loss at Washington in Week 2 and Martin Gramatica's 43-yard FG try with 1:55 remaining last week was wide right, as the Broncos escaped with a 34-32 win over the Saints in Denver in Week 3. The 49ers enter on a two-game winning streak, with wins at Seattle (33-30 in OT) in Week 2 and a 31-13 home win last week over the Lions. The Saints enter this game leading the league with 315.3 YPG passing, after Drew Brees passed for 421 yards in last Sunday's loss to the Broncos. San Francisco's starting QB will be JT O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan has played for five teams in his six NFL seasons but made his first NFL start this year in Week 1. He gets a chance to haunt a former club for the second straight week (beat the Lions last week), as the Saints drafted him in the sixth round of the 2002 draft. However, he never took a snap with New Orleans in two-plus seasons before getting traded to Green Bay in 2004. O'Sullivan has been very good these last two weeks, completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 509 yards with three TDs and no INTs, as the 49ers have averaged 32.0 PPG. Sullivan's 104.6 QB rating is second-best in the NFC this year and he's opened up the field for RB Frank Gore, who leads the NFL with 412 yards from scrimmage (287 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 13 receptions). However, with Brees running the New Orleans' offense, the 49ers will have trouble keeping up with the Saints. Brees leads the league with 980 passing yards and has defeated the 49ers in all three games he has faced them, throwing for seven touchdowns in that span (including a four-TD game last season). He is missing WR Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey but this Saints 'O' just keeps rolling. Brees is getting plenty of support from RB Reggie Bush this year, who looks to be regaining the form that saw him post over 1,500 all-purpose yards as a rookie in 2006. Bush ran for 73 yards and added 11 catches for 75 yards in last weekend's loss (now leads the NFL with 26 catches), scoring on the ground and through the air. The 49ers are 2-1, while the Saints are just 1-2 but look at who they've played. San Francisco's wins have come against a pair of teams who are a combined 1-5 (Seattle and Detroit), while the Saints have lost to Washington (2-1) and Denver (3-0). Lay the cheap price with New Orleans.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144778 - 09/28/08 11:20 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: Duces]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, September 28, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed:
LATE STEAM POWER PLAY NFL WINNER
210 Tampa Bay -1 1:00 EST
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144779 - 09/28/08 11:21 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Scott Delaney
80 DIME TENNESSEE (in the event this line goes to 3-1/2, be sure to buy the 1/2-point off this game and lay -3 points against Minnesota. Do not lay 3-1/2 points.) - The age-old cliche that defense wins certainly applies well to the Titans (3-0 SU and ATS), who know a thing a or two about clamping down on opponents. Take the first three games of this season, for example: Tennessee has yielded 10, seven and 12 points in those matchups -- for an average of under 10 ppg. Or even go back to last season, when the Titans held eight opponents to two TDs or less.
They've got the league's third-best "D" this season, allowing just 240 ypg. And they've got a Vikings team coming to town that will start a 37-year-old journeyman QB in Gus Frerotte. That will allow Tennessee to focus more on slowing RB Adrian Peterson. The betting numbers bear out a Titans play this week, as well, as they are on ATS runs of 7-0 in September, 4-1 against losing teams and 4-1 overall.
And when NFC teams come to Nashville, Tennessee knows how to get the job done, with a 12-4 ATS mark in its last 16 home non-conference clashes. On the flip side, you've got Minnesota (1-2 SU and ATS), which has a sound defense, but its middle-of-the-pack offense (17th in the league) will put too much pressure on its defense to bail the Vikes out against the Titans. The Vikings have cashed just once in their last six games, and they don't respond well to non-conference roadies, going 0-5-1 ATS the last six times in that situation. Take the Titans this week.
10 DIME ARIZONA - The Cardinals' best move for this game might prove to be the one they didn't make -- flying back to Arizona after last Sunday's loss at Washington. Instead, they smartly stayed on the East Coast, rather than criss-crossing the nation a couple of times leading up to this game. And it's an even smarter move in light of the Jets not only coming off a short week, but off a coast-to-coast road trip, as New York got pelted in San Diego 48-29 on Monday night.
The Redbirds (2-1 SU and ATS) won and cashed in their first two games, and they were certainly in it last week against the Redskins, losing 24-17 on a fourth-quarter TD as a three-point road pup. Plus, Arizona is a good bounce-back team to bet, with ATS runs of 10-3 after a SU loss and 8-3 after a pointspread setback, and they're on a 6-1 ATS run in September contests. The Jets, meanwhile, have cashed in just two of their last nine home games, and with QB Brett Favre nursing a gimpy ankle, the Arizona defense will look to take advantage of that. The Cards are the play in this one.
10 DIME PHILADELPHIA - I think most people would consider the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger a solid NFL quarterback. He limits his mistakes, he gets his team to the playoffs, and he even got a Super Bowl ring in just his second season. So if Roethlisberger got his lunch eaten last week in a 15-6 loss at Philadelphia -- going 13 of 25 for a paltry 131 yards, with one INT, two lost fumbles and an eye-popping eight sacks -- how do you think Chicago QB Kyle Orton will fare against the Eagles defense this week? The guess here is, not too well.
The Eagles (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) are No. 1 in the league against the run, allowing a suffocating 45.7 ypg rushing. Should that trend continue this week, all the pressure falls on Orton and the passing game -- and Philly fields the league's fourth-best defense in total yards, at just 242 per game. Plus, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (289.3 ypg passing) leads the NFL's sixth-best total offense (373 ypg). Add to that Philly's current 10-2 ATS tear on the highway, and the Bears' current 4-10 ATS freefall at home, and you've got to back the Eagles this week.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144780 - 09/28/08 11:21 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Brandon Lang
25 Dime Buccaneers
5 Dime Teaser- Jaguars /Titans (Take Jaguars from -7 to -1 and take Titans from -3 to +3)
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144781 - 09/28/08 11:23 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Northcoast
3.5* Tampa Bay
3* Tennessee
3* Carolina
Opinions
San Francisco
San Diego
Denver under
Houston over
Cleveland over
Chicago under
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144782 - 09/28/08 11:24 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Phil Steele
Personal Plays
4* Tampa Bay
3* Tennessee
3* Carolina
3* Cincinnati over
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144783 - 09/28/08 11:24 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Dave Malinsky
6* Chicago over
4* TB
4* Houston
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144784 - 09/28/08 11:25 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Docs Sports
6 Unit Game of the Month
Arizona +1
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144785 - 09/28/08 11:27 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Marc Lawrence
Late phone plays
4* Houston
3* Cleveland
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144786 - 09/28/08 11:27 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Tom Stryker
4* Chargers
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144787 - 09/28/08 11:28 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
RON RAYMOND
5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL PICK!
Atlanta Falcons
5* NFL BEST BET WINNER
Jacksonville Jaguars
5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Oakland Raiders Under 45
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144788 - 09/28/08 11:29 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Kevin Francis Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, September 28, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed:
5000* NFL BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE MONTH
203 San Francisco +4 1:00 EST
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144789 - 09/28/08 11:29 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
ATS Lock Club
5 Eagles -3
5 San Diego -7
5 Packers +1.5,
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144790 - 09/28/08 11:30 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Insider Sports Network
Denver
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144791 - 09/28/08 11:31 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: pitt]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
Sebastian
20* Teaser TB&SF
30* ARI/NYJ over
30* TEN/MIN under
30* HOU/JAC under
50* SD
100* KC
100* Dal/Was over
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144792 - 09/28/08 11:31 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Marc Lawrence
A big battle in the NFC East Division kicks off in the Big 'D' Sunday afternoon when the Cowboys take on the Redskins. Jim Zorn has done a terrific job as the Head Hog in his first year on the sidelines as Washington has turned the ball over only one time in three games. Meanwhile, Wade Phillips has his troops off to a 3-0 start for the 2nd year in a row. In a series that has seen the underdog bark 17 of the last 21 games and with Dallas just 3-11 ATS as a favorite against a .500 or greater opponent, we'll grab the points with the Redskins in this division dukeout today.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144793 - 09/28/08 11:32 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Big Al Mcmordie
At 1:35pm our member selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. There isn't much that the Orioles can salvage from this dreadful season, but perhaps there is one last (albeit faint) silver lining in the fact that their #1 starter, Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn't started in a month due to injury, threw a 50-pitch bullpen session recently and felt no pain thereafter, thus putting him in position to start this last game of the season for his team. If Guthrie has a quality outing in the last game in front of the home fans, there may be at least some cause for optimism heading into the offseason. After all, the trade that sent lefthanded ace Erik Bedard to the Mariners in exchange for five of Seattle's top young players is now looking like one of the best offseason moves that Baltimore has ever made. Bedard only threw 81 innings in his injury-plagued season, and one of the five players obtained was an All Star (reliever George Sherrill) and another (Adam Jones) is now looking like he will be a fixture in the O's outfield for a long, long time. If Guthrie can get a win this afternoon, he would get to .500 on the season (11-11) and that, combined with his excellent ERA of 3.57, would be quite an achievement on a team that has failed to win 70 games. Young Toronto righthander Jesse Litsch has had a great season and should also be in the Jays rotation in '09, but he has really struggled on the road. Away from Toronto the 23-year-old is 5-6 with an ERA of 4.57. Take the Orioles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144794 - 09/28/08 11:32 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Jimmy The Moose
The Cardinals played on the East Coast in week 3 and instead of going home and then travelling back to New York for week 4 they stayed in the East Coast, and that will be a plus this afternoon. The Cardinals are 2-1 SU and ATS this season. Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in September. The Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. The Jets are 1-2 SU and ATS this season. Brett Favre should play but he won't be 100% for this game and that means mistake are sure to happen. The Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. Look for the visiting Cardinals leave with the win today. Play on the Arizona Cardinals +.
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144795 - 09/28/08 11:32 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45062
Loc: Time to play the Game
|
|
Offline
|
|
Tom Freese
How bad are things in St. Louis? The answer is real bad. The Rams have been outscored 116 to 29 in their first 3 games. That is an average score of 39-10. There is nothing to suggest that things are going to get any better this week against a Buffalo team that is 3-0 Straight Up. The Bills thrive on losing teams going 38-13-3 ATS their last 54 games in that role. Buffalo is 10-4-1 ATS off a straight up win and they are 6-2-1 ATS after passing for over 250 yards. PLAY ON BUFFALO -
_________________________
Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#144796 - 09/28/08 11:35 AM
Re: 9/28
[Re: FREAK]
|
pitt
Member
Registered: 12/30/07
Posts: 1316
Loc: pa
|
|
Online
|
|
Lenny Stevens
Game of the Month
San Francisco 49ers
|
|
Top
|
| | | |
