#143695 - 09/14/08 06:17 PM
9/21
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FREAK
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Sunday action, roll em out and let's hammer the man!
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#143873 - 09/17/08 06:03 PM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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bug
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PIGSKIN PROPHET
Sf/DET...OVER 46
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#143937 - 09/18/08 06:45 PM
Re: 9/21
[Re: bug]
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bug
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NORTH COAST SPORTS
Comp TOTAL POW
MIAMI/NE...UNDER 36
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#143959 - 09/18/08 07:02 PM
Re: 9/21
[Re: bug]
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bug
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Dr. BOB
OPINIONS:
WASHINGTON
SAN FRANCISCO
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#144108 - 09/20/08 10:57 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: bug]
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FREAK
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NFL | (401) MIAMI @ (402) NEW ENGLAND | 09/21/2008 1:00 PM
Play AGAINST MIAMI using the money line in All games against conference opponents
The record is 4 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.20 units)
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NFL | (419) DALLAS @ (420) GREEN BAY | 09/21/2008 8:15 PM
Play ON GREEN BAY using the money line in All games in games where the money line is +130 to -150
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.60 units)
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NFL | (409) DETROIT @ (410) SAN FRANCISCO | 09/21/2008 4:05 PM
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games
The record is 7 Wins and 27 Losses for the last three seasons (-22.70 units)
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NFL | (409) DETROIT @ (410) SAN FRANCISCO | 09/21/2008 4:05 PM
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO in the first half in All games versus the first half line in all games
The record is 7 Wins and 27 Losses for the last three seasons (-22.70 units)
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NFL | (407) ST LOUIS @ (408) SEATTLE | 09/21/2008 4:05 PM
Play UNDER ST LOUIS on the first half total in All games in September games
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.00 units)
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NFL | (411) NEW ORLEANS @ (412) DENVER | 09/21/2008 4:05 PM
Play OVER DENVER on the total in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 11 Overs and 1 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.90 units)
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NFL | (415) JACKSONVILLE @ (416) INDIANAPOLIS | 09/21/2008 4:15 PM
Play OVER JACKSONVILLE on the total in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 13 Overs and 2 Unders for the last two seasons (+10.80 units)
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NFL | (397) CINCINNATI @ (398) NY GIANTS | 09/21/2008 1:00 PM
Play ON NY GIANTS using the money line in All games in all games
The record is 16 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.05 units)
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NFL | (397) CINCINNATI @ (398) NY GIANTS | 09/21/2008 1:00 PM
Play ON NY GIANTS using the money line in All games in all lined games
The record is 16 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.05 units)
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NFL | (415) JACKSONVILLE @ (416) INDIANAPOLIS | 09/21/2008 4:15 PM
Play OVER JACKSONVILLE on the total in Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.00 units)
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#144109 - 09/20/08 10:58 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Dr. Bob
I was really looking forward to handicapping this week's NFL card after going 2-0 on my Best Bets and 5-0 on my Strong Opinions last week. However, there isn't anything this week that I liked enough to bet, so I'm passing. I do have two strong opinions (Washington and SF). The number of Best Bets is always low in the first few weeks of the season but it picks up when my math model kicks in in week 5.
Strong Opinion
WASHINGTON (-3.0) 23 Arizona 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Sep-08
Arizona is 2-0, but the Cardinals were fortunate to beat the 49ers in week 1 (out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.8 yppl, but +5 in turnovers) and beating up on Miami isn’t that impressive. Washington , meanwhile, lost their opener to a very good New York Giants team and then bounced back to beat a pretty good New Orleans squad in a performance that was more impressive than the 29-24 score indicates (the Redskins averaged 6.8 yppl and held the Saints’ explosive attack to 4.7 yppl). Washington has out-gained their opponents by 0.6 yppl (5.6 yppl to 5.0 yppl) while Arizona has out-gained their foes by 0.7 yppl (5.9 yppl to 5.2 yppl), but the Redskins have faced a better than average schedule (NYG and NO) while Arizona has faced a mediocre San Francisco team and a bad Dolphins squad. My ratings favor Washington by 6 ˝ points and the Cardinals apply to a negative 123-190-6 ATS statistical profile indicator. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at -3 or less (-120 or less) and I’d take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ˝ or less (-115 odds or better). I’ll also lean under on the basis of a 55-19-2 Under situation.
Strong Opinion
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.0) 28 Detroit 19
01:05 PM Pacific, 21-Sep-08
The 49ers are an underrated team that has combined a resurgent offense with an improved defense to become a better than average team. San Francisco dominated Arizona 6.8 yards per play to 4.3 yppl in their opener, but lost that game due to a -5 in turnover margin (4 lost fumbles) and then they bounced back with an upset win at Seattle in which they out-gained the Seahawks 5.8 yppl to 4.9 yppl. The Niners’ offense can run the ball with Frank Gore (4.8 ypr) and they can now throw it with J.T. O’Sullivan running new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ system with aplomb. O’Sullivan has averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt and he’s averaged 7.1 yards per pass play despite taking too many sacks (12 so far). The Niners’ defense has allowed only 4.6 yppl and have been especially good against the pass (5.1 yppp allowed), which should serve them well in this game against a pass-heavy Lions’ attack. The Lions continue to throw the ball often (42.5 pass plays per game), but Kitna was just average last season on a yards per pass play basis and he’s averaged 6.0 yppp in two games this season while continuing to throw too many interceptions (42 in two previous seasons with Detroit and 4 picks in 2 games this season). Detroit ’s rushing attack has managed just 3.4 ypr so far and their offense is about average overall from a yards per play perspective (although worse than average when you factor in the interceptions). Detroit ’s defense is what is making them a bad team, as the Lions gave up 9.2 yards per play to Atlanta and then gave up 6.7 yppl in a 25-48 home loss to Green Bay . Using this year’s stats only would favor San Francisco by 18 points and my ratings favor the Niners by 13 points in this game. Unfortunately, San Francisco applies to a negative 21-58-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset win last week, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less.
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#144127 - 09/20/08 11:37 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Larry Ness
NFL 25*
My NFL 25* is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET. Everyone knows the storyline. The Cards own just ONE winning season since moving from St Louis to Arizona for the start of the 1988 season (that came in 1998). That was also the team's last postseason appearance and the Cards opened this year with the NFL's longest-active postseason drought of nine consecutive playoff-less years. So what's going on in '08? The Cards are one of 10 teams to have opened 2-0 and Kurt Warner has gone "Back to Future," looking as little like he did from 1999-2001 (well, almost). Warner's completed 70.4 percent for 558 yards with four TDs (0 INTS) and a QB rating of 128.5. In Boldin (14 catches / three TDs) and Fitzgerald (nine catches / 20.4 YPC) he has one of the NFL's best pass-catching duos plus the team's defense, ranks fifth in PPG allowed (11.5) and seventh in YPG allowed (263.5 YPG). The Cards' decision to go with Kurt Warner as their starting QB has been a good one so far, as the team's 31-point effort last week vs Miami was Arizona's 10th straight game in which it has scored at least 20 points, the longest current streak in the NFL! The Redskins come in 1-1, losing at the NY Giants in the season's first game but then beating the Saints last week (29-24). The 'Skins mustered only 209 yards in the season-opening loss to the Giants but had 455 yards against the Saints. QB Campbell looked confused vs the Giants but was 24-of-36 for 321 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) vs New Orleans, while RB Portis has been solid in both games, gaining 84 vs the NYG and 96 vs New Orleans. Moss has 12 catches and has a TD catch in five straight games, while fellow WR Randle-El has 11 catches in the first two games. TE Cooley has just six catches but don't worry, he's averaged just about 65 catches per season the last three years. Washington's defense is solid and it should get pressure on Warner. The Cards can no longer depend on James (3.5 YPC through the season's first two weeks / 3.6 YPC over his first two season with Arizona) to give them a solid running game, which means all the pressure is on Warner and his talented WRs. Washington held a very talented New Orleans offense to just 16 FDs (3-of-10 on 3rd down), 250 total yards and just two offensive TDs, as the Saints' third TD came on a 55-yard punt return by Bush. Brees, who passed for 343 yards with three TDs vs Tampa Bay, was held to just 216 yards with one TD and two INTs by the Redskins. At 2-0, the Cards could get to 3-0 with a win here. That's a significant mark, as over the last five years, 24 of the 26 teams which have opened 3-0 have made the playoffs, including all 14 teams which got to 3-0 over the last three seasons. The Cards I "know and love" will find a way to lose here. Let's note that since the 2000 season, the Cards are just 14-51 SU on the road (including their Week 1 win at San Francisco this year). A quick check of the record book shows that just TWO of those 51 losses have come by LESS than three points.
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#144163 - 09/20/08 07:14 PM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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RON RAYMOND
5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH!
Baltimore Ravens -3
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#144164 - 09/20/08 07:14 PM
Re: 9/21
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FREAK
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Larry Ness
Week 3 Total of the Week 15* Det/SF Over.
Jon Kitna opened his big mouth last year and "guaranteed" that the Lions would win 10 games. Detroit did open 6-2 but finished the season only 7-9 after losing SEVEN of its final eight games. With Favre gone to the Jets plus the Bears and Vikings entering this year with question marks, the Lions had high hopes again to open '08. However, Detroit is off to an 0-2 start and its defense has been just DREADFUL. The Lions got Atlanta in Week 1, a team starting a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) and Green Bay in Week 2, off a big MNF win over the Vikings and with its QB (Aaron Rodgers) making just his second career start. Ryan didn't have a HUGE game but the Falcons rolled to 474 yards while scoring 34 points, while Rodgers was 24-of-38 for 328 yards (three TDs and no INTs) for the Packers, as they had 447 total yards and scored 48 points. Kitna has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his two seasons as Detroit's starting QB and the Lions have gone 'over' in six of their eight road games in both '06 and '07. That's in part due to Detroit's offensive capabilities but has as much, if not more to do, with Detroit's poor defensive play. The Lions allowed an average of 28.1 PPG on the road last year and 34.5 PPG last season. In Week 1 at Atlanta, the Lions allowed 34 points. Sunday, the Lions visit San Francisco and their former OC, Mike Martz. Martz is running the 49ers offense now and he saw JT O'Sullivan (in just his second career start), lead the 49ers back in Seattle. The 49ers beat the Seahawks 33-30 (in OT) last week, as O'Sullivan completed 20-of-32 passes for 321 yards (one TD and no INTs). Frank Gore (157 yards / 4.8 YPC) has run for 1,695 yards in '06 and 1,102 last year and should LOVE facing a Detroit team which has allowed an NFL-worst 220.5 YPG on the ground in the season's first two games. Any thoughts that WR Issac Bruce was "washed up" were dispelled in Seattle, as the man with 946 career catches (84 TDs) caught four balls for 153 yards. WR Bryant Johnson, who spent the last few years behind Boldin and Fitzgerald in Arizona, looks as if he's ready for a big year in "the Martz system," opening with nine catches in two games. Speaking of WRs, the Lions are loaded with them in Calvin Johnson (13 catches / 18.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Roy Williams (6 catches / 15.8 YPC), McDonald (79 catches LY) and Furrey (61 catches LY / 98 catches in '06). This game could be 'over' by halftime.
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#144165 - 09/20/08 07:16 PM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Carlo Campanella
Surprising everyone, Jacksonville has opened the season up at 0-2 while losing both games as Favorites. Now they head winless to Indianapolis (1-1) for their first Division game of the season, against the team that is the reigning Division champs. This is an extremely high pressure situation for Jacksonville, as this is a road game against a Division opponent and the first time they find themselves in the Dog role this year! Thats a lot to overcome, especially against a team as talented as Indianapolis, so well lay the points knowing that Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS against a Division foe in the first meeting of the season series and the line is 5 points or less since they revamped the AFC South to a 4-team Division. While its surprising that Jacksonville hasnt won a game yet, its also surprising that the Colts are just 1-1 and the win was by just a field goal! With 2 games under their belts, the Colts will turn things around with an explosive game as we find them at 8-0 AST hosting a Division opponent when its the first of back-to-back Division battles!
7* Play On Indianapolis
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#144169 - 09/21/08 12:01 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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Henryjames
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WILD BILL
New York Jets +9 1/2 (5 units)
Saints + 5 (5 units)
Chiefs +5 (5 units)
Browns +1 (5 units)
Panthers +3 1/2 (5 units)
Seahawks-Rams Over 43 1/2 (5 units)
Titans-Texans Over 38 1/2 (5 units)
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#144170 - 09/21/08 12:02 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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NFL Week 3 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch
Cincinnati Bengals +13.5 over New York Giants
If people didn't believe in the Superbowl Champion New York Giants, they certainly do now! The Giants are now 2-0 and lead the NFL in "net points" or "points for" minus "points against" with a +37. The Giants are collecting about two-thirds of the bets -- even with a large line of Giants -13.5.
In this game, we want to "bet against the public" and "sell" the Giants after last week’s dominating performance. We'd note that the Giants beat up on St. Louis, currently the league's doormat (0-2, -63 "net points," worst in the league by a wide margin). At the same time, we want to "buy" an underperforming Cincy team. The Bengals finished last season just below .500 (with a 7-9 record) and scored about as many point as they gave up. On the other hand, the Giants scored just slightly more points than they gave up in the 2007 regular season.
We don't think the Giants have improved so much that they command such a large line -- even at home. The point spread is growing as we speak. With the public jumping on the Giant bandwagon, the line is steadily increasing and should hit Cincy +14 or +14.5 at game time. Skybook reports heavy Smart Money coming in Cincy. We'll take the points.
Cincinnati Bengals +13.5
Minnesota Vikings -3 over Carolina Panthers
This game will be one of the most "lopsided-bet" games of the weekend. The Public can’t believe Carolina is getting +3.5 and they are betting it like they know the score. A glance at the standings shows Carolina 2-0 and Minnesota 0-2. Thus, the casual betting public is thinking that they will grab Carolina and the points and take the seemingly better team. The Public may also be factoring in Viking RB Adrian Peterson's sore hamstring too much. It's looking like he will be playing on Sunday.
If we take a closer look at the standings, we see that Carolina's two wins AND Minny's two losses were ALL close games. Both of these teams have scored almost the same number of points that they have given up (even with 2-0 and 0-2 records!). In 2007, the Vikings were just below the league's elite, with "net points" (PF minus PA) of +54 while the Panthers were mediocre at best at -80.
Minnesota opened at -3 but Sharps have pounded the number off of the "key 3" to -3.5. We'll join the Sharps and take the better team from last year (discounting this season's early win-loss records). Grab the -3 that is still available at SIA.
Minnesota Vikings -3 (Sports Interaction)
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Indianapolis Colts
This should be a great game between two of the NFL's elite squads. The teams' combined 1-3 record (Indy is 1-1; Jax is 0-2) in this young season will make this a hotly contested game. The Public still loves the Indianapolis Colts but it looks like Indy has lost a step. Although the Jaguars have started the season off slowly, they have lost their two games by a combined 11 points.
SportsInsights' sports marketplace stats verify that "smart money" is on Jacksonville. With the majority of bets on Indy, the line actually moved from the opener of Indy -6 down to Indy -5. The big, smart money is more than countering the Public's bets on Indy. We'll join the smart money and take Jax in what should be a great game. Grab the 5.5 points that is still available at some books.
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:
Games to Watch (3-3)
Cincinnati Bengals +13.5
Minnesota Vikings -3 (Sports Interaction)
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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#144171 - 09/21/08 12:03 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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the pro source
nfc tom seattle over 44
cleveland +2
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#144172 - 09/21/08 12:03 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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joyce sterling
10* game of the week cincinnati +13.5
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#144173 - 09/21/08 12:04 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NFL Total
double-dime bet400 WAS / 399 ARI Under 43.0 Bodog
Analysis:
UNDER redskins ? Last week the Redskins gave up 24 points to the Saints but that is a bit deceiving! Washington only allowed New Orleans 16 first downs and they held them to a total of 250 yards of offense. In fact, Washington?s defensive stats are quite respectable so far this season even though they?ve allowed an average of twenty points per game. Now we get a solid match-up this week that favors the under. Washington?s game went over the total last week as did Arizona?s. However, like the Redskins, the Cardinals were actually quite respectable on defense. The Cards only allowed 10 points and 236 yards of offense to the Dolphins. The only reason the game got over is because Arizona?s offense erupted for 31 points. However, that was against a suspect Dolphins defense and now, the Cardinals will be dealing with a much more respectable defense. At the same time, Washington will be facing an Arizona defense that has been very strong this season particularly against the run. Overall, the Cardinals have allowed just 23 points and they?ve employed a bend but don?t break defense that has frustrated the opposition. Keep in mind that when these teams last met the Redskins scored 19 points but a lot of that was due to two interceptions. Washington only had ten first downs and only 160 yards against the Cards in that game. Coming into this game, the Redskins offense is still trying to adjust to their new schemes under a new coaching staff. Yes, they were able to put up solid numbers against the Saints last week but that defense has struggled badly so far this season. Also, New Orleans was without three starters on defense last week! The Saints also struggled in the heat and humidity last week as they?re a dome team. In other words look for the Redskins to find the yardage much tougher to come by this week. Also, the Cardinals blitz a lot and run a lot schemes on defense that will be tough on Redskins QB Campbell. While we respect the Skins defense, we also know the Cardinals defense will be heard from in this game too. That?s why the play here is the UNDER
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#144175 - 09/21/08 12:05 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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Sun, 09/21/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet398 NYG -13.0 (-110) BetUS vs 397 CIN
Analysis:
NY Giants -13
The whole world thinks Cincy will cover here. They have played as bad as any AFC team this season to date and their defense against this offense of NY with Manning on fire, and RB Jacobs is a total mis-match unless NY simply does not show up. The Bengals defense is giving uop almost 5 yards per carry which id a long and slow death ofr any team in the NFL. Cincy is scoring 8 ppg, they have no running game and contant pressure on QB Palmer has resulted in bad timing with receivers and turnovers and many 3 and outs this season.
NY Giants defense will not give up points with ease, and with their multiple blitz packages should fluster Palmer all day long. New York should put up at least 28 here and doubt Cincy gets 10..I am laying the wood in this one. In the last 8 games NY is 8-0 ATS, and they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 and though they played average at best against a bad team last week on the road, they hammered the Rams 41-13, which is scary .
Play the Giants for 1 Unit
2 Team 6 Point Teaser....tease Houston up to +10.5 and tease the Packers up to +9 and play it for 1 Unit.....Thanks and good luck..Tony George
Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:15 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet415 JAC 5.0 (-110) BetUS vs 416 IND
Analysis:
Jacksonville +5
The Jags ALWAYS play the Colts tough and Indy overrated with OL line issues, the offense is not clicking and Bob Sanders is out. Jax playing with double revenge and in a foul mood after 2 straight losses. Jax looks to get running game going after only puttting up 65 yards a game so far, and Colts run D giving up 4.9 yards per game. This takes pressure off of QB Garrard having to throw as much. Losses to Tennessee and Buffalo, both teams have better defense's that the Colts....like the Jags to keep it close, 3 points one way or the other here in a tight game. Jags are due to a win both in the regular season and in this series. Key injury to Colts Center a big concern here as well,.
Play 1 Unit on Jacksonville
Sun, 09/21/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet405 CAR 3.5 (-110) BetUS vs 406 MIN
Analysis:
Carolina +3.5
An injued Adrian Petersen at RB who will not be 100%, the return od WR Steve Smith for Carolina who is rolling right now and gaining confidence. Gus Freotte starts at QB for an inept passing attack for Minny who is off the heels of a loss against a overrated Colts team at home. Carolina 8-3 ATS on the road their last 11. I think Carolina is vastly under rated and Minny overrated and very thin at WR. With RB Petersen not 100% nursing a hamstring, and QB Freotte a career backup for the most part, Carolina has more offense and WR Smith can make big plays.
Play 1 Unit on Carolina
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#144176 - 09/21/08 12:06 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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SCOTT FERRALL NFL
Free NFL Totals:
Ravens/Browns UNDER 38.5
Denver/ Saints UNDER 51
Carolina/ Minnesota OVER 37
TB / CHI UNDER 35.5
Free NFL First half Totals and Lines:
PITT / PHILLY UNDER 23
DENVER -3 to Saints
Free NFL Money Lines:
Chicago -150
Vikings -200
Free NFL Sides:
Falcons -5 to Chiefs
Raiders +9.5 from Bills
49er's -4 to Lions
Seahawks -9.5 to St. Louis
Broncos -5.5 to Saints
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#144177 - 09/21/08 12:06 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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SCOTT FERRALL MLB
BEST IN BOLD
YANKEES -230 over Baltimore--Pettitte finally wins and NY isn't losing the last game played EVER in Yankee Stadium--COUNT ON IT--they finsih off the SWEEP of the Orioles
Cleveland -140 over the Tigers--Detroit is playing like shit to end the season
TAKE THE CUBS OVER THE CARDS AT WRIGLEY (NO EARLY LINE)--DEMPSTER DOESN'T LOSE AT HOME
Matt Cain +160 at LA--The Giants want nothing more than to hurt the Dodgers--they UPSET Lowe at the Revine
Philly -115 at Florida--The Phils have to win, so Moyer will step up and cool off the sizzling Marlins
Colorado +130 over Arizona--The D'Backs aren't going to make the playoffs. The Rockies jump on dan Haren
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#144178 - 09/21/08 12:07 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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BIG AL's 52-13 NFL B-L-O-W-O-U-T OF THE MONTH -- Sunday
At 8:15 PM, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers plus the points over the Dallas Cowboys. Although I've been critical of the Green Bay management for not taking back Brett Favre, I must tip my cap to Aaron Rodgers, who has played extremely well in his two starts vs. Minnesota and Detroit. And perhaps it isn't all that big of a surprise, given that Rodgers played very well last season against these Cowboys after Favre went down with an injury. In last year's game, Rodgers was 18 for 26 for 201 yards and a TD, without any turnovers. And this season, he's completed 70% of his passes, without any interceptions. Off that win at Detroit, the Packers fall into 82-27 and 52-13 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams off road wins. Also, Green Bay has won 10 of its last 11 regular season home games, and the Cowboys are 0-5 in their franchise's history at Lambeau Field, with four of those five losses coming by 18+ points. NFL Blowout of the Month on Green Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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#144179 - 09/21/08 12:08 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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Henryjames
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GOLDEN CONTENDERS 47-9 ATS SYSTEM CLUB PLAY FOR SUNDAY:On Sunday afternoon the system culb play courtesy of selectivesportssystems.com is on The Cleveland Browns.Game 417 at 4:15 eastern.Those who have tailed these system club plays have gone 3-0 as the Lsu Tigers just dispatched auburn.An overall solid day as the late phones went 4-1 yesterday cshing with the top play on Tulsa.The browns are a nice play off my card as they fall into a nice system here that plays on any dog who scored 7 or less but still managed to cover the spread.As they did cover in that 10-6 loss to Pitt. on Sunday night.The record of the system is 38-13 ats.I believe the Browns will win this game today and get there first win.For those looking for something to really hit,consider a play from a 13-1 system that dates to 1977.There are also two totals from 19-1, and 170- totals system, that cash year in and year out in week3..As well as a solid play in the Sunday night game.Grab the Browns though as this weeks system club play bol gc-
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#144181 - 09/21/08 12:21 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Brandon Lang
20 Dime Patriots
5 Dime Packers
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#144182 - 09/21/08 12:23 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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JB Sports
NO Saints +6
HOUSTON +4.5
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#144183 - 09/21/08 12:26 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Ben Burns
Annihilator
I'm playing on the 49ers and Lions to finish UNDER the total. It's true that the Lions have a ton of points through the first two games and also that the 49'ers are coming off a high-scoring game vs. the 49'ers. Those results have caused this number to be very high and it's also been bet up from its opening number, providing us with excellent value. The earlier results have come against vastly different opponents and in the Lions' case, they've been forced to abandon the running game early due to falling behind each game. Make no mistake though - the Lions want to run the ball. They also want to control the clock. Last week's game got out of hand. However, the final score appears a lot worse than it really was, as the Packers ran back two interceptions for touchdowns in the final three minutes. The score also doesn't show that the Lions' defenders were actually playing quite well to begin the game. They got pressure on Aaron Rodgers twice on third and long and both times they nearly had the sack. If they had gotten him on either of those plays, that game likely would have been much lower-scoring. In both cases, Rodgers barely escaped and was able to complete a big play. Afterwards, things snowballed. However, my point is that I watched the game closely (a few times now) and there were positive signs evident on the defensive side of the ball, which aren't seen in the boxscore. While San Francisco J.T. O'Sullivan has been playing well, it's still a little too early to be calling him the next great 49'ers QB. Additionally, with offensive coordinator Martz leaving Detroit for San Francisco, both teams are still quite new to their offensive systems. While Martz has the 49'ers throwing the ball more this year, running back Frank Gore still remains a focal point of the offense and one game doesn't prove that Martz is quite as pass-happy as he was several years ago. Note that the 49'ers have seen the UNDER go 10-3 since 2006 when playing a game with an over/under line in the 42.5 to 49 range. As for the Lions, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 15-5-1 their last 21 road games with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49. These teams last met in 2006 and combined for just 32 points. Look for the final score to be much lower-scoring than expected once again.
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#144184 - 09/21/08 12:27 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Ben Burns
Main Event
I'm playing on Green Bay and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. Last week's results have helped cause tonight's over/under line to be extremely high - the highest on the Week 3 board. I believe that it's too high. It's important not to over-react to one week. Yes, these teams have shown they can score. They aren't going to score the type of points they did last week every time out though. Additionally, we've seen that both defenses are capable of being excellent. Prior to Monday's shootout, the Cowboys had gone into Cleveland and limited the Browns to 10 points and 205 total yards. As for the Packers, they held the Vikings to just three first half points in Week 1 and repeated that performance by limiting the Lions to just three first half points last week. A quick look at the Packers' last 20 home games shows that NONE of them had an over/under line greater than 46.5 points. Seventeen of those 20 games produced 48 combined points or less. As for the Cowboys, they've only seen one of their past 20 road games have an over/under line above 50 - a December game at Detroit last year which had an over/under line of 50.5. Fourteen of those 20 games produced 51 combined points or less. The last three all finished UNDER the total with scores of 20-13, 27-6 and 28-10. Look for this evening's game to prove lower-scoring than expected once again as the final combined score stays beneath the inflated number.
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#144185 - 09/21/08 12:30 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Ben Burns
NON Conference GOM
I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. The defending champs are off to an impressive 2-0 SU/ATS start while the Bengals have struggled out of the gate, going 0-2 SU/ATS. As you probably know, the lines on defending Super Bowl champions are typically quite high to begin with. The fact that the Giants now also come in as the hotter team has caused this line to be extremely high. I believe that it's too high. Note that the last time that the Giants were laying a number in this range was way back in 2006 when they were -13 point home favorites vs. Houston. (The Giants won by only four points.) Keep in mind that this is a team which has won by playing strong defense, not by blowing teams away. That's great for winning games but doesn't necessarily help when trying to cover two touchdown pointspreads. In fact, prior to last week's blowout win over the Rams (which was close for much of the way) the Giants had seen seven straight games decided by 10 points or less. Even including the victory over the Rams, the Giants have still only won two of their past 15 games by double-digits. It's true that Cincinnati's off-field problems have been well-documented. Those "issues" have further helped to keep this line generously high. The Bengals' still has plenty of talent though. They entered the season with fairly lofty expectations and they know that falling to 0-3 will be a very tough hole to climb out of. As a result, I expect them to play with a real sense of desperation. As QB Palmer had to say: "It seems like it's the end of the world to a lot of people. This team has a lot of hope left. We have a lot to play for, a lot of pride. The Giants started 0-2 (last season). A lot can be done from 0-2." The Bengals have only been underdogs in this range once since back in 2000. That came in 2002, when they were +13.5 dogs at Indianapolis. The Bengals covered the spread in that game (lost by 7) and are a highly profitable 9-3 ATS the last 12 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points overall. Look for them to improve on those numbers, giving the defending champs a much tougher game than most are expecting.
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#144186 - 09/21/08 12:39 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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Henryjames
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igz1 sports
NFL Sunday Sept. 21
NFL
4* Cleveland +3 (-120)
4* Over 46 (-110) Detroit vs San francisco
4* Carolina +3.5 (-120)
3* Buffalo -9.5 (-110)
3* Under 35.5 (-110) Tampa Bay vs Chicago
3* Indianapolis -4.5 (-110)
Edited by Henryjames (09/21/08 12:42 AM)
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#144188 - 09/21/08 01:07 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: Henryjames]
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FREAK
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Dave Malinsky
5*
Pittsburgh Under
4*
Jacksonville
Baltimore Under
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#144192 - 09/21/08 04:26 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Marc Lawrence
A big battle in the AFC Central Division takes place in Baltimore today when the Ravens play host to the Cleveland Browns. Aside from the Brownies owning a 5-0 ATS mark in this series, they are 3-0 ATS in Game Three of the season under head coach Romeo Crennel. With all the need on Cleveland's side, look for Baltimore to slip to 1-6 ATS as division favorites in September. Grab the points with the Browns.
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#144193 - 09/21/08 04:26 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Tom Freese
New Orleans is 24-8-2 OVER their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 7-0 OVER after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. The Saints are 7-0 OVER their last 7 games going back to last year. Denver is 12-1-1 OVER their last 14 home games and they are 10-1-1 OVER after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. The Broncos are 19-7-1 OVER off an ATS loss and they are 9-4 OVER after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON 'OVER'
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#144194 - 09/21/08 04:27 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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FREAK
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Jimmy The Moose
The Browns are too good of a team to start the season at 0-2 and won't fall to 0-3. After losing to the Cowboys and Steelers Cleveland will be glad to see a weaker opponent in the Baltimore Ravens. In their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record the Browns are 11-1 ATS. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC team's. The Browns are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Ravens are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games. In their last 14 conference games the Ravens are 3-11 ATS. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Cleveland Browns +.
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#144198 - 09/21/08 10:06 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: FREAK]
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pitt
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Spylock:
NFL
DateTime Game Pick Stars
Tennessee Titans -4.5 ( 1* )
Baltimore Ravens -2 ( 1* )
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#144199 - 09/21/08 10:06 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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vegas insiders.....(GOW) NO/DEN Over 50
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#144200 - 09/21/08 10:07 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: pitt]
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pitt
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Armvin Sports Nfl
9/21/2008 Detroit 3.5
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#144201 - 09/21/08 10:29 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: pitt]
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husker24
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Lenny Del Genio
20* NFC Total of the Month
Play Under St. Louis/Seattle at 4:05
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#144202 - 09/21/08 10:29 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: husker24]
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husker24
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JB'S COMPUTER PICKS
Cleveland Indians -150
Tampa Bay Rays -115
Los Angeles Angels -140
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#144203 - 09/21/08 10:30 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: husker24]
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husker24
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Scott Rickenbach's
Pick Pack
NFL Guaranteed Pick
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Cleveland at Baltimore
Time: 4:15 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Cleveland (+3 -110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: September 21, 2008 @ 6:59:49 AM EDT
2* (Top Play) Cleveland Browns (+) @ Baltimore @ 4:15 ET – Yes, the Browns have some injury issues here but so do the Ravens. Also, it’s the “other issues” with the Ravens that are giving us some fantastic line value here. First off, they had an unwelcome bye last week because of their game with the Texans getting postponed. With that postponement, Baltimore also lost any momentum they had from Week One. In their opening game of the season they did beat the Bengals but that is what is also giving us line value here. People are talking about how solid the Ravens looked in Week One but they played a team that is off to a horrific start and Cincinnati has looked downright “soft” so far this season. Contrast that with the Browns schedule! Sure, they’re 0-2 and sure they have had some issues with getting totally overwhelmed by Dallas in Week One and making costly mistakes in Week Two’s loss versus Pittsburgh. However, therein lies the key with this match-up. The Browns have played two of the top teams in the league and, in last week’s game, they truly did have a great shot at the outright win as a home dog versus the Steelers. They were simply done in by some costly mistakes.
Speaking of mistakes, we’ll still gladly take Derek Anderson of the Browns over Joe Flacco of the Ravens. The Browns QB is off to an unsettled start this season but he’s had to face two straight tough defense while Flacco faced a weak Bengals defense in his only appearance. Yes, Anderson is once again dealing with a tough Ravens defense this week but this is still an aging unit that is not quite as solid as it once was. The Browns offense does have the weapons to take advantage and their injury issues are certainly not significant enough to scare us off of this game. What we foresee happening here is the Ravens coming in a little too confident after their Week One win and they also lose their ‘edge’ after last week’s unplanned bye. Conversely, the Browns will come into this game with a head full of steam as this team always gets up for playing the Ravens, the team that bolted Cleveland in the middle of the night to head east to Baltimore years ago.
The Browns are 0-2 on the season and need this win and we feel they will catch the Ravens a little off-guard here. This is very significant because the Browns offense is absolutely capable of jumping out to an early lead here and the Ravens are not built well to play catch up football. QB Flacco is still inexperienced and he’s dealing with a hungry Browns defense that played a solid “bend but don’t break” style versus the Steelers last week. The Browns are 5-1 against the spread after facing Pittsburgh and a lot of that has to do with a “step down in class” after facing a tough Steelers team. That is the case again in this particular instance and we look for the outright road win for the Browns! Play Cleveland plus the points as a Top Play selection.
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#144204 - 09/21/08 10:30 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: husker24]
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husker24
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Sportsbettingstats
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
Coming into this big cross-conference battle the Steelers won their last game beating the Browns 10-6, exciting game, while the Eagles lost a barnburner to the Cowboys 41-37. This game will feature 2 teams that are playing great football and feature 2 QB's that are at the top of their game. However, Ben Roethlisberger has a sprained shoulder and that may affect the outcome. The Eagles are led by the resurgent Donovan McNabb (642 yds 4 TD), who is playing like he did in his prime. His main targets are WR's DeSean Jackson (12 rec 216 yds) and Greg Lewis (8 rec 140 yds). The Eagles rushing attack is led by Brian Westbrook (149 yds 3 TD). The Steelers are led by QB Ben Roethlisberger (323 yds 3 TD), who is the top rated QB in the NFL. His main targets are WR's Hines Ward (11 rec 135 yds 3 TD) and Santonio Holmes (7 rec 113 yds). The Steelers rushing attack is led by Willie Parker (243 yds 3 TD).
Staff Pick: Pittsburgh is winning with their defense, which ranks 4th in the NFL. It is interesting that even though Roethlisberger is the NFL's top rated QB and RB Parker has the 3rd most rushing yards that the Steelers offense is only ranked 23rd. While the Eagles have the 3rd ranked offense their D has been sketchy. Well, at least their passing defense. The Eagles have the 11th ranked D in the league, but have given up the fewest yards rushing (52 ypg), but have given up an average of 221 yards passing for their first 2 games. The Eagles will have to pressure Roethlisberger and if they don't he will pick apart their secondary much like Tony Romo did last week. The one main weakness of the Steelers is their offensive line and they will have to step up against a tough front line D of the Eagles. Donovan McNabb is playing great and looks like he did a few years back when he was one of the premier QB's in the league. He will have to play a great game against the tough D of the Steelers. Look for a close game and for the Eagles to pull one out in the end, as they will win this game and cover the spread.
Eagles 27 Steelers 20
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Green Bay Packers
In a huge game that will show which team is the team to beat in the NFC the cowboys come in after beating the Eagles 41-37, while the Packers come in after beating the Lions 45-28. So far both of these teams have looked awesome, especially on offense. The Cowboys are led by QB Tony Romo (632 yds 4 TDs 2 INT) and his main targets are WR Terrell Owens (8 rec 176 yds 3 TD) and TE Jason Witten (13 rec 206 yds). Dallas no longer uses a 2 RB system as Marion Barber III (143 yds 3 TD) is now the main man in the backfield. Green Bay is led by 1st year starter Aaron Rodgers (506 yds 4 TD), who is coming off his best game as a pro against the Lions last week. His main targets are Greg Jennings (11 rec 258 yds) and Donald Driver (11 rec 90 yds 1 TD). The Green Bay rushing attack is led by Ryan Grant (112 yds).
Staff Pick: Both offenses are on fire and a key to this game may be which D can put pressure on the opposing QB. Dallas ranks 10th on defense and Green Bay ranks 22nd. The Cowboys have a legit D, especially against the run, but they were torched last week as the Eagles put up 37 points against them. This is Rodgers biggest game as a pro, but he has passed the test so far in taking over for Brett Favre. Rodgers is the 5th rated QB in the NFL. Packers RB Grant has to have a good game and if he can't pick up some yards the Dallas D will stack the front line and put a lot of pressure on Rodgers. The Packers will run a 3 and 4 WR spread offense, but the Packers offensive line has to give Rodgers time. Green Bay is not particularly strong up front and they have had trouble stopping the run. If the Packers D focuses too much on Romo, Barber III may have a big day. A HUGE advantage for the Packers is that they are playing at home and Lambeau Field is never an easy place to play. However, the forecast is for mild weather, too bad for the Packers, so the elements will not favor the Pack like they do later in the season. Look for a high scoring game but for the Cowboys to exploit Green Bay's D, as they will win this game, cover the spread, and show the league that they are the team to beat in the NFC.
Cowboys 28 Packers 23
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#144205 - 09/21/08 10:31 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: husker24]
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husker24
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GREG GAMBLE’S
2008 PIGSKIN PICKS - 14-7 ATS...67%
NCAA ATS: 6-0 - NFL ATS: 4-6 - Teasers ATS: 4-1
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+3.5) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Like no other sport, the balance of power and momentum in the NFL is a year-by-year accomplishment. And considering the Vikings entered 2008 with the double-dip of a lethal rushing attack and possibly the best run defense in the league, as well as huge upgrades for both the passing game (WR Bernard Berrian) and pass-defense (DE Jared Allen), it was amazing the Vikings decided to enter the season with Tarvaris Jackson & Gus Frerotte as their potential playoff QBs. While they grossly overpaid for both Berrian & Allen, those are the types of moves you make when you feel your just a player or two away.
Surprisingly, I’m probably in the minority in thinking Jackson could be legit down the line, but considering his collegiate development was at Alabama St. and he’s never had an experienced vet to learn from (ala Aaron Rodgers), I honestly believe Minnesota put the youngster in a lose/lose situation. As for the well-traveled back-up, while Frerotte is a harmless fellow (except when he’s knocking himself out after banging his head on a stadium wall) and a decent emergency option, he’s lost more games than he’s won along his journey, has a lower career comp% than the 25 year-old from Bama St., and at 37…should we really expect to see him improve on a career QB-rating surpassed by Patrick Ramsey, Damon Huard, and only 2-pts higher than Cleo Lemon?
As for the fiery Panthers, weekly NFL match-ups usually comes down to who has more passion, desperation, confidence, & less players dealing with babies from groupies from week-to-week. While Del-spaz-homme’s complaining and chest-thumps are almost comical and extremely annoying when your squad is playing against them, his teammates seem to rally around his fervor and respect how he approaches each game. Especially after missing most of last season and the uncertainty of how is career might end after elbow surgery, Spazhomme seems poised to prove the Panthers still have the magic from a few years back. Throw-in the return of the toughest pound-4-pound player on the gridiron & the intensity he’s built-up from sitting out, and I expect Carolina to take the moxy of both their leaders & head out the Metrodome tunnel with a playoff-type intensity.
As for the actual gridiron match-ups, the Vikings secondary has the unfortunate combo of being below average in coverage and slow to make-up ground. Stevie Smith should open things up even more for a Panthers squad already utilizing the skills of Muhsin Muhammad (11 rec, 115 yrds), Dante Rosario (8 rec, 102 yrds), & D.J. Hackett (6 rec, 70 yrds) underneath. Throw-in an extra safety dropping back to shadow the superstar playmaker and the run game should find some room if it can get past the first level of defense.
Quick Side Note, for all the uproar in Bearland regarding Mushin’s comment: “Chicago is where WRs go to die!” , just like a chick entering a Wet T-shirt contest is doomed for the stripper pole, please tell me how Moose's theory is one iota wrong?
While Minny has a stout run D, Carolina’s balanced attack should open things up a little, while the lighting & thunder combo of DeAngelo Williams & Jonathon Stewart has the ability to wear-out a defense by the 4th quarter…so don’t be surprised to see behemoths like 35 year-old Pat “330” Williams & Kevin “320” Williams with arms on their hips late.
As for Childress’s offense, tough to see how the passing game and OL look sharp with the surprising QB-switch…especially since the QB’s name is Grandpa Gus. Considering the Panthers offense has average 23 ppg against two solid defenses without Stevie (San Diego & Chicago), tough to see how they don’t put up a few more as the Vikings fail to keep pace. And if I’m wrong on who wins, at least we have a FG and the hook as some MFin insurance!
Final Score: PANTHERS 27 VIKINGS 20
WEEK THREE SUNDAY FUNDAY TEASER
TAMPA BAY BUCS (teased +9) @ CHICAGO BEARS
HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (teased +1)
Let’s see here…giving Chucky almost double digits when facing Kyle “Party Pictures” Orton seems more inviting than a cleaning lady willing to work topless & fancying a dude with a unibrow. While the Bears defense is still solid, look for the hard-running Earnest Graham & shifty Warrick Dunn to exploit many of the same areas the Panthers did last week.
As new signal-caller Brian Griese, you think the crafty veteran a former Bear knows a little something about Lovie’s defense? Look for plenty of play-action from the former Wolverine as he keeps things simple underneath with his veteran WRs (Hilliard, Galloway, Bryant). As a result, that offensive recipe combined with the pedestrian offense of the Bears and a Hester-rib injury (questionable) makes a 9-point victory by the Beloved extremely unrealistic.
Final Score: CHUCKY’S BUCS 20 BEARS 16
As for the Titans/Texans, not to punish Houston for dealing with all the drama regarding Hurricane KobeTai, but Gary Kubiak’s squad has being living & practicing in limbo the last two weeks…which is usually not a formula for success for professional athletes. On Pornstache Fisher’s side, for all the drama in Collins past, the former Nittany Lion seems to have gained the respect of his teammates & knows this opportunity to lead a playoff team may be his last. With a balanced rushing attack similar to thunder & lighting in Carolina, the electric Chris Johnson & short-yardage specialist Lendmesomepoundcake White should have a field day against a Texas defense that allowed Willie Parker to run like Willie Mays Hayes in Week One.
Throw-in the quick read & release of Collins to his large targets (Crumpler, Cage, Scaife, & McCareins), and the home-crowd should be pleased with the balanced offense. As always, the Texans will throw a few bombs late in desperate comeback attempt, but in the end, the Titans are just a better team with a coach psyched for a 3-0 start.
Final Score: TEXANS 20 PANTHERS 30
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#144207 - 09/21/08 10:31 AM
Re: 9/21
[Re: husker24]
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husker24
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Registered: 04/03/07
Posts: 5248
Loc: Omaha, Nebraska
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Yankee Capper
2 Units - Packers +3
2 Units - Vikings -3
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#144208 - 09/21/08 10:31 AM
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