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#143155 - 09/07/08 02:48 PM

9/14

FREAK
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Week 2 NFL and more... post em if ya got em....

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Courage + Belief =Life
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#143320 - 09/09/08 02:19 PM

Re: 9/14 [Re: FREAK]

bug
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NORTH COAST SPORTS
POWER PLAYS KEY PRO SELECTIONS
4* CAROLINA
3* HOUSTON

KEY TOTAL SELECTIONS
3* TN/CIN UNDER 39'
3* NYG/STL OVER 42
3* BUF/JAX UNDER 37

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#143433 - 09/11/08 12:15 PM

Re: 9/14 [Re: bug]

bug
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Registered: 09/29/06
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NORTH COAST SPORTS
COMP PRO TOTAL POW
SD/DEN ....OVER 45

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#143472 - 09/12/08 03:08 AM

Re: 9/14 [Re: bug]

Henryjames
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igz1 sports

NFL September 14
4* Indianapolis -2 (-110)
3* San Diego -1 (-110)
3* Cincinnati -1 (-110)
3* New Orleans +1 (-110)
3* Over 45.5 (-110) Greenbay vs Detroit

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#143546 - 09/13/08 02:06 AM

Re: 9/14 [Re: Henryjames]

tinfw17
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Picks of the Pole 2008 by Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Tampa -7 vs Atlanta
NY Giants -8.5 vs St. Louis
Houston -4.5 vs Baltimore
Jacksonville/Buffalo Under 37

Single Plays

Kansas City -3.5 vs Oakland
San Francisco +7 vs Seattle
Tennessee +1 vs Cincinnati
Pittsburgh -6 vs Cleveland
Indianapolis/Minnesota Under 43.5
Kansas City/Oakland Under 36
Denver/San Diego Over 45.5
Tennessee/Cincinnati Under 37.5

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#143548 - 09/13/08 02:09 AM

Re: 9/14 [Re: tinfw17]

tinfw17
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Dave Malinsky

GAME: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Sep 14, 2008 4:15PM
PICK: San Diego Chargers +1

4* SAN DIEGO over DENVER

Some of the biggest over-reactions in any calendar sports year come after the first week of NFL play. It is the only sport left where the betting “public” is still a significant factor in the setting of the lines, and that puts some outstanding situations into our laps. This is one of them, now that we can take the Chargers at +1.

San Diego buried Denver over eight quarters LY. The two games were won by a combined 64-6, with the scoreboard a pretty accurate reflection of what was happening on the field – the Chargers won the total offense by 297 yards. And with San Diego only scoring seven fourth quarter points, we can see that both games could have been even worse. And 2007 was not really anything new – the previous season brought a pair of wins by a total of 36 points, so the Chargers own a 4-0 advantage with Philip Rivers as the starting QB in this series, winning by an average of 23.5 per game. But now here come the Week #1 results in which these two teams fell a combined 35.5 off of the oddsmakers projections, and that leads to the usual leaping to the wrong conclusions.

The Bronco problem in this matchup LY, and in general, was a soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. So what did we see in Monday’s 41-14 rout of Oakland? A soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. Raider RB’s Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden rambled for 143 yards at 5.3 per carry, but they could not run the ball more because their own defense took them out of the game. We rarely find teams in a favorite’s role that have such a negative matchup in that key area of the game.

Meanwhile there was nothing to be particularly alarmed about in that San Diego loss to Carolina. LaDanian Tomlinson ran for 97 yards at 4.6 per carry and Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes without an interception. The defense was a disappointment, but that helps from a mental standpoint here. It creates a “backs to the wall” setting from a talented unit, and now that they know that Shawne Merriman is gone for the campaign they can bring the proper focus to make the adjustments. The DL of Jamal Williams, Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo has dominated the Bronco OL in those recent routs, and with the latter still trying to build chemistry with Casey Wiegmann at center (Tom Nalen will miss at least another week) and rookie Ryan Clady at RT, we can confidently back the Chargers to control the trenches on both sides of the ball.

We don’t find this price range often when one side controls the line of scrimmage the way that we can project this flow to be.

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#143596 - 09/13/08 12:36 PM

Re: 9/14 [Re: tinfw17]

bug
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NORTG COAST SPORTS

TRENDS & ANGLES

TN
INDY
NYG
JAX
T BAY
NE
SD

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#143611 - 09/13/08 11:01 PM

Re: 9/14 [Re: bug]

FREAK
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EZWINNERS

5 STAR: (219) PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland
(Risking $550 to win $500)

3 STAR: (202) CAROLINA (-3) over Chicago
(Risking $330 to win $300)

2 STAR: (197) NEW ORLEANS (PICK) over Washington
(Risking $220 to win $200)

_________________________
Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis

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#143612 - 09/13/08 11:05 PM

Re: 9/14 [Re: FREAK]

FREAK
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RON RAYMOND

NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH!
Tennessee Titans Over 37

_________________________
Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis

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#143614 - 09/13/08 11:25 PM

Re: 9/14 [Re: FREAK]

FREAK
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Ben Burns

NFC Total of the Year

I'm playing on the Packers and Lions to finish UNDER the number. I really like Week 2 in the NFL and have typically done well with my Week 2 picks by finding games (sides or totals) where the betting public has over-reacted to the results from the opening week. One of my winners from Week 2 last season was the 'under' in the Lions/Vikings game. The Lions had been involved in a shootout vs. a non-conference opponent in Week 1, knocking off the Raiders by a score of 36-21. Although it was only one game, public perception was that they had a very potent offense. Despite the fact that they were playing a divisional game against a Vikings team which allowed a mere three points the previous week, aided by the previous week's offensive explosion, the over/under line was a generous 43. I felt that was too high. Sure enough, the teams combined for just 34 points in regulation and 37 overall.

This season has some similarities as we've got the Lions coming off a high-scoring opener. While the Falcons are from the same conference, they're still from outside the division. Once again, the Lions face a division rival in their second game. Once again, I feel that the o/u line is much too high, based on the Week 1 results. Yes, the Lions gave up a couple of big plays and were torched on the ground by the Falcons. I really think that this defense will prove better than they showed in that game though and that we shouldn't over-react to one game. Throughout the entire offseason, the Lions' mantra has been to attack on defense and control the clock on offense. Trust me, they were disgusted with the Week 1 effort on defense and will be highly motivated to atone with a better showing this week. Note that during the preseason the Lions held ALL four of their opponents to 10 points or less, allowing a total of just 32 in four games. None of those four games produced more than 37 combined points and they averaged just 28.

As for the Packers, they played very well defensively in Week 1, holding the Vikings to just three first half points, six through the first three quarters and 19 overall. That game finished over the number with 43 points. However, that was somewhat of a bad beat for under bettors (myself included) as the score was 17-6 entering the fourth quarter before the Packers scored on a punt return. This gave them a bigger lead and caused them to relax on defense. Regardless, even the 43 points scored in that game wouldn't be enough to go over this afternoon's higher total. Note that the Packers' gameplan should include a heavy dose of the run this week, particularly after seeing the Falcons' success on the ground last week. However, it should also be noted that the ground attack may not be at full strength, as Ryan Grant is banged up. Regardless, as you know, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. As you probably also know, pass-happy coordinator Mike Martz is gone from Detroit and gunslinging QB Brett Favre is gone from Green Bay. Look for the 'new era' of this rivalry to begin with a relatively low-scoring contest.

_________________________
Courage + Belief =Life
In Memory of John Challis

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#143619 - 09/14/08 09:15 AM

Re: 9/14 [Re: FREAK]

xyz
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Any Russ Culver Picks or North Coast Phone picks

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#143620 - 09/14/08 09:28 AM

Re: 9/14 [Re: xyz]

xyz
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Dr Bob

NFL Best Bet Sides

3 Star Selection
Oakland (+3.5) 17 KANSAS CITY 13
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Oakland looked horrible in their 14-41 home loss to Denver on Monday Night Football, but that nationally televised loss has served to put the Raiders in a good situation this week. The Raiders apply to a very good 69-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is 25-4 ATS in week 2 and they also apply to a similar 26-2 ATS week 2 angle. My ratings would have favored the Chiefs by just 1 point prior to last week?s results, so the line has certainly been adjusted for how poorly the Raiders played. Oakland?s offense performed pretty well (5.4 yards per play), but their defense was horrible in allowing the Broncos to rack up 7.9 yards per play. Oakland has good personnel on defense and I expect that unit to bounce back with a good effort against a sub-par Kansas City attack. I actually upgraded the Chiefs offense with veteran Damon Huard in place of injured starting quarterback Brodie Croyle, who averaged only 4.7 yards per pass play last season. Huard has averaged 5.6 yppp during his career and 5.55 yppl since last season, so he?s an upgrade. Kansas City?s defense caught a break and spent most of last Sunday defending Matt Cassell instead of Tom Brady, who was injured in the first half. The Chiefs are probably going to be below average defensively this season without pass rushing star Jared Allen, but they ought to keep the Raiders in check. My ratings favor Kansas City by 3 points after adjusting for last week?s games and installing Huard at quarterback for Kansas City, so the line is fair. The situation is strongly in favor of the Raiders and I?ll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ? points (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars down to +3 points (-120 odds or better).

I?ll also consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 35 points or higher based on a 94-38-5 Under situation.

3 Star Selection
San Francisco (+7) 21 SEATTLE 19
14-Sep-08 01:05 PM Pacific Time
San Francisco is one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season, but losing 13-23 at home to Arizona has hidden that fact. The 49ers were the worst offensive team in recent memory last season, but bringing in offensive coordinator Mike Martz has revitalized the 49ers? attack and quarterback J.T. O?Sullivan looks like he?s more than capable of putting up adequate passing numbers to go with the good running of Frank Gore. O?Sullivan averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt in the pre-season and followed that up with 20 passes for 195 yards last week (9.75 ypa). I?m not ready to call for O?Sullivan to make the Pro Bowl, but he?s averaged 8.3 ypa on 165 passes in Martz? system in the pre-season and regular season combined, including 7.5 ypa on 46 regular season passes. If I include sacks, which I always do, then O?Sullivan has an overall average of 7.4 yards per pass play in Martz? system (including preseason), including 5.9 yppp on 53 regular season pass plays (7.6 yppp last week). That?s just a bit below the league average of 6.1 yppp and I have O?Sullivan rated as an average quarterback on a yppp basis ? but with a high interception rate. With Gore being a better than average runner the 49ers can move the ball at a better than average clip, which was proven by the 6.8 yppl that the Niners averaged last week. San Francisco has a pretty solid defense too and that unit held the Cardinals? better than average attack to just 4.3 yppl. San Francisco should have beaten the Cardinals by about 10 points, but they lost by 10 thanks to 4 lost fumbles and zero turnovers for the Cardinals. Fumbles are mostly random in the NFL, so it?s unlikely that they?ll repeat those mistakes this week. If the turnovers are close to even then San Francisco should have no problem competing with an overrated Seahawks team was out-played 3.8 yppl to 5.4 yppl by the Bills in their 10-34 loss. Seattle does have a better than average defense (although they didn?t show it last week), but the Seahawks are hurting on offense with no capable receivers on the roster for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to throw to. All of last year?s top 4 wide receivers are gone, as D.J. Hackett left as a free agent, Bobby Engram is still out with a bad shoulder, Deion Branch is still recovering from knee surgery and Nate Burleson, who led the team with 5 catches last week, is out for the season after injuring his knee last week. Seattle isn?t a good enough running team to beat the 49ers, who are pretty good defending the run, and my ratings favor Seattle by just 3 ? points in this game. In addition to the line value, the 49ers apply to a very good 69-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is 25-4 ATS in week 2 and Seattle applies to a negative 28-87 ATS situation that is based on last week?s loss. I?ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars from +5 ? to +3 ? points.

NFL Strong Opinions

Green Bay (-3.0) 26 DETROIT 19
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I rated Detroit as the 5th worst team in the league heading into the season and they just proved that they are not as good as one of the teams I had rated below them. Losing 21-34 to Atlanta is a sign of trouble, as the defense allowed 322 yards on 38 rushing plays while allowing rookie quarterback Matt Ryan to average a tidy 11.1 yards on his 14 pass plays. Detroit?s offense played about as expected with 5.5 yards per play against a below average Falcons? defense, but a mediocre offense is not going to cut it against a good Packers team that plays solid defense and looks sharp on offense. Green Bay?s Aaron Rodgers showed why the Packers didn?t want Brett Favre to come back, as Rodgers completed 18 of 22 passes for 8.1 yards per pass play and no interceptions. Green Bay also ran the ball for 5.6 yards per rush against the best run defense in the league in Monday?s 24-19 win over the Vikings and RB Ryan Grant is probably doing cartwheels in the film room while looking at Detroit?s run defense. My ratings favor Green Bay by 9 points in this game, but I?ll resist making the Packers a Best Bet since the Lions apply to a 28-3-1 ATS bounce-back situation. Green Bay does apply to an 81-39-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I?ll consider Green Bay a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.

Buffalo (+5.5) 20 JACKSONVILLE 21
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Bills are a young team on the rise and they showed that last week with an outstanding all-around performance in a 34-10 win over the Seahawks. Buffalo out-gained Seattle 5.4 yards per play to 3.8 yppl and had their usual great effort on special teams (punt return TD and fake FG TD). I still rate the Bills at below average offensively, but their young defense became a better than average unit starting week 5 of last season when changes were made in the secondary. That defense is even better this season and rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. Jacksonville?s offense was malfunctioning last week against a good Titans? defense (just 3.3 yppl) and they will probably post just mediocre numbers against the Bills. The Jaguars are a solid defensive team, but they are still susceptible to the pass (Kerry Collins killed them last week after Vince Young left the game with an injury) and Bills? quarterback Trent Edwards looks pretty comfortable throwing the football (he averaged 6.9 yards per pass play last week with no interceptions). My ratings favor Jacksonville by 5 points, so the line is about right, but Buffalo applies to an 81-39-4 ATS statistical indicator while the Jaguars apply to a negative 33-76-3 ATS early season situation. I?ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I?d take the Bills in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

Philadelphia (+7) 21 DALLAS 23
15-Sep-08 05:30 PM Pacific Time
Philadelphia appears to be an underrated team to start this season. My ratings favored the Eagles by 14 ? points last week against the Rams (a 38-3 win) and my ratings favor Dallas by only 3 points in this game, as I have these teams rated the same. The Eagles have a great running back in Brian Westbrook and Donavan McNabb looks completely healthy after spending last season recovering from his knee surgery. The addition of rookie DeSean Jackson has been a bigger factor than most anticipated, as Jackson led the Eagles in receiving yards last week (6 catches for 106 yards) while also setting up a touchdown with a 60 yard punt return. Philly?s defense was pretty good last season (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and they?ve added top cornerback Asante Samuel to make the pass defense even better. The Rams were limited to 166 total yards at 3.7 yppl last week and the Eagles are capable of slowing down an explosive Dallas attack. I actually rate Dallas as being slightly better than the Eagles offensively and 0.2 yppl better on defense, but McNabb is the current all-time leader in lowest interception percentage (2.1%) while Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is intercepted 3.7% of the time during his career, which is worse than the league average. Aside from the line value, I also like the fact that Eagles? head coach Andy Reid is 41-21-2 ATS in his career as an underdog or pick. I?ll consider Philadelphia a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Indianapolis 19 at MINNESOTA 20 UNDER 43.5
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Peyton Manning showed some rust in the Colts? opening night loss to Chicago and he managed to average just 5.4 yards per pass play, which is much lower than the 7.5 yppp that we generally see from him. Some of the credit must go to the Bears? defense, but Manning wasn?t looking downfield as much as he usually does, which could have been the result of missing all of training camp and the preseason. I expect Manning to be sharper this week and Minnesota?s pass defense looked vulnerable last week against the short passes of Aaron Rodgers, which kept the Minnesota pass rush at bay (0 sacks against Green Bay). The Colts didn?t do a great job against the Bears? rookie runner Matt Forte, so there is some concern about stopping Adrian Peterson this week (the Vikings averaged 5.5 ypr last season and 5.7 ypr in their opener). The pass defense should have no trouble shutting down a sub-par Tarvaris Jackson, so it all comes down the run defense. The Colts were better than average in run defense last season, so last week may have been an aberration. Still, I expect Peterson and backup Chester Taylor to get their yards. My ratings favor the Colts by 1 point, so the line is about right, but Minnesota applies to a very good 81-39-4 ATS statistical indicator and I?ll lean with the Vikings based on that. I?ll also consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 43 points or higher based on a 94-38-5 Under situation that applies to this game.

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#143621 - 09/14/08 09:30 AM

Re: 9/14 [Re: xyz]

xyz
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Registered: 03/09/08
Posts: 51

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ACE-ACE/ Allan Eastman

$300 -106 Take #197 New Orleans (+1) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)
The Redskins are still struggling to find their way under new coach Jim Zorn and I think this is a great situation to get on the Saints, who are one of the best teams in the NFC. Jason Taylor is still banged up and he was supposed to be the rock that the Redskins defense relied on, and that will give Drew Brees time to pick apart a suspect Washington secondary. The New Orleans defense played very well last week against Tampa Bay and Reggie Bush looked explosive. The road team is 4-0 ATS in this series and the Saints are 6-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing record.

$2500 -102 Take #212 Arizona (-6.5) over Miami (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)
This is our Game of the Week. Arizona is catching a struggling Miami team at just the right time. The Dolphins are coming off an emotional home loss to their bitter rivals, the Jets, and now they have to travel west to take on one of the most improving teams in the league. The Dolphins play hard, but they still looked sloppy at times against New York and if they couldn?t keep the Jets wideouts in front of them how are they going to handle Arizona?s duo of Fitzgerald and Boldin? Arizona has covered five straight games in September and because this is their only home game of this month I expect them to play with a sense of urgency.

$800 -108 Take #216 Houston (-4.5) over Baltimore (8:30 p.m., Mon, Sept. 15)
After being overwhelmed in Pittsburgh I think we?ll see a bit better showing out of the Texans this weekend. This game may be moved to Monday night in the case that Hurricane Ike doesn?t cooperate, but I like the home team no matter when this one is played. Baltimore is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Their defense was strong enough to hold down a feeble Cincinnati attack last week but I think the Texans will be able to put more pressure on the Ravens with their ?O? this time around.

$200 -105 Take #217 San Diego (-1.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)
After a stunning loss last weekend to Carolina I think that Norv Turner and his boys get back on track. Denver?s big win on Monday Night shouldn?t be taken too seriously considering it was against the pathetic Raiders. The Chargers swept the season series lat year and are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. San Diego has also covered five straight road games and are 19-7-3 ATS in divisional games recently.

$300 -105 First Half: Take #210 Seattle (-3.5) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)
After a terrible performance in Buffalo last week Mike Holmgren put the Seahawks on Red Alert. He made several personnel moves this week and the team welcomed back two defensive starters from suspension. Couple those moves with a massive home field edge and the Seahawks should come out firing this weekend at Qwest.

$2500 -105 Take ?Under? 36 Oakland at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)
Neither team can throw the ball and (despite Oakland?s pathetic display on Monday) both teams have solid defenses. Herm Edwards is one of the most conservative coaches in the league and with his starting quarterback on the sideline I don?t see him taking any chances. This will be a game of field position and a game about who can run the football more effectively. The ?under? is 5-1 in this series and is 13-6 in Kansas City?s last 19 divisional contests.

$800 -104 Take ?Over? 37.5 Atlanta at Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 14)
I actually think that the Bucs offense is going to be more effective without Jeff Garcia in the lineup. He looked tentative and unsure of himself last week and in the preseason and I think that Brian Griese?s steady hand will be just what Tampa needs. Atlanta showed last week that their offense is much improved and has plenty of big play potential. However, their defense had a hard time slowing down the Detroit attack once the Lions woke up. Atlanta has played ?over? in eight straight games while the Bucs have been ?over? in six of their last seven.

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#143622 - 09/14/08 09:35 AM

Re: 9/14 [Re: xyz]

xyz
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Registered: 03/09/08
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Pointwise NFL Key Plays

2--JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo 30-16
3--TAMPA BAY over Atlanta 26-13
4--San Diego over DENVER 27-17
4--Miami (+) over ARIZONA 19-20
5--SEATTLE over San Francisco 31-13

Last week "1" rated plays were 1-1, now 2-2 on the year
All rated plays last week--College 5-3 (now 8-8 on year)
NFL--3-2

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#143624 - 09/14/08 10:23 AM

Re: 9/14 [Re: xyz]