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Did anyone listen to Jim Rome Monday (6/2)? He had Kent D. on and was talking about the Belmont. Kent pretty much guaranteed a Big Brown to Casino Drive exacta. Probably won't pay much but he and Dutrow seem to think this race is already over and we have our first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. I do have to say that Kent is a class act by listening to him. But they are way to overconfident in this race. I hope we do get a Triple Crown winner as this sport needs it badly.

It's been 30 years since we last witnessed a Triple Crown winner at Belmont Park, but the Richard Dutrow-trained BIG BROWN (Boundary) gives every impression that we will break the drought.

Unbeaten and untested in five career outings, the strapping three-year-old has dismantled every field he's been lined up against to this point and will hope to put the cherry on top of his phenomenal spring, by capturing the elusive Belmont S. (G1) on Saturday. The bay colt drew the rail in here and has attracted nine foes, with two in particular who we think will make him run every step of the way. Although it will take a Herculean effort to upend the heavy favorite with anything close to his best effort, we feel compelled to take a shot against the superhorse at expected odds of 1-5.

Kentucky Derby (G1) third DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) has more than eight lengths to make up on Big Brown, but the talented colt showed to us in the Derby that he belongs with this type, and we'll tab him for the late-running upset. The David Carroll pupil began his career with a stylish maiden win and followed it with two more in succession, capped by a visually impressive score in the Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park. The Florida-bred colt was questionably handled after that, skipping a logical test in the Rebel S. (G2) and pointed to the Illinois Derby (G2), where he appeared to be a short horse over the quirky surface. His ride in the Derby was also head-scratching, as he surely lost valuable ground when sent diagonally from the 16 post to the rail early, settling in last and leaving himself with too much to do late. We acknowledge that the bay colt will need improvement to top this field, but his fine morning drills and the five-week break leading up to this could be the winning formula under Robby Albarado.


If Big Brown dusts this group, which is a viable possibility, he will have to be considered as one of the finest sophomores of recent times. What seems to separate the Kentucky-bred from his foes is his push-button response to Kent Desormeaux, showing he can turn it on at the shake of the hand. Special from the first time he entered the starting gate, Big Brown has proven he can win from on or off the pace, on turf or dirt, one turn or two turns, and the only thing that appears to have a chance to throw him off his game is his feet. The reason we chose against the colt is that we envision him and CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft) engaging each other for the entirety of the race, and if neither give way, the door may be left open for a late runner. With that said, we could well witness this one draw off as he routinely does.

Casino Drive put in a spectacular effort in dominating the Peter Pan S. (G2) in his lone U.S. try to date, and the Japanese invader looks to have all the tools to put in a fine performance. Friday's news that he could have sustained a stone bruise is cause for concern, but if the outstanding Japanese trainer Kazuo Fujisawa does not scratch him, we'll trust that he's ready to run. The chestnut colt is a half-brother to 2006 winner Jazil (Seeking the Gold) and a three-quarters brother to last year's heroic filly, Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy), and his connections have the colt here for one reason, to win the Belmont. The Kentucky-bred earned a whopping 109 BRIS Speed figure for his Peter Pan triumph, and we could see him on the lead early in here, so if Edgar Prado pushes all the right buttons, it wouldn't be a total upset if this one became the third foal out of Better Than Honour (Deputy Minister) to win this race in succession.


Wood Memorial S. (G1) hero TALE OF EKATI (Tale of the Cat) is perfect in two outings over this oval and could be leading up to a peak effort for Barclay Tagg, so we consider the bay a logical exotics threat in this 1 1/2-mile test. The well-bred colt finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby most recently, a solid effort coming in a race which he may have needed, and the added fitness and return to his home base should get him closer than 11 lengths to Big Brown. We're not sure the colt could beat each of the top trio in here, but a well-timed ride and a career effort will find him challenging in the latter stages beneath Eibar Coa.

ICABAD CRANE (Jump Start) finished a belated third to Big Brown in the Preakness S. (G1) after encountering some trouble for Graham Motion, but the consistent New York-bred has a ways to go to challenge the top guns in this one. The dark bay has never been unplaced and gives the impression of a three-year-old who will run all day, but this field is yards better than his previous one and we can't envision him much more than getting a late fourth.

MACHO AGAIN (Macho Uno) rallied strongly to finish second in the Preakness to warrant a spot in this tilt, but we have no visions of this one rallying for anything late in here. The talented Dallas Stewart trainee looked very good in taking the Derby Trial S. and showed some agility in finishing second at Pimlico, but 12 furlongs against the top four doesn't bode well for this one.

READY'S ECHO (More Than Ready) is a tough read for us, as the late-running colt earns big BRIS Late Pace numbers but doesn't record the most brilliant Speed figures. The Todd Pletcher charge was a visually impressive juvenile at Saratoga prior to being sidelined until the spring, but he's rebounded with a trio of decent showings, including third in the Peter Pan last out. If the dark bay could register the same late energy in this 1 1/2-mile test, then he could conceivably rally for a placing.

ANAK NAKAL (Victory Gallop) should endure the taxing distance of this race pretty well, but the Nick Zito charge might simply be too slow to challenge for a placing in here. A Grade 2 winner at two, the sophomore hasn't hit the board in four tries in 2008 and this doesn't appear to be the spot for him to do so.


DA' TARA (Tiznow) showed stubbornness in fighting to the wire in a close runner-up showing in the Barbaro S. last out, but this field is immensely more talented than that one and we would be surprised if the Zito trainee is still in the race at the top of the lane. GUADALCANAL (Graeme Hall) is a maiden that has been defeated by a combined 42 3/4 lengths in his last two dirt starts.

1st-DENIS OF CORK
2nd-BIG BROWN
3rd-CASINO DRIVE

Dave Litfin


1. Big Brown 2. Anak Nakal 3. Denis of Cork


Recent history says this is not the time to send it in on a horse going for the elusive Triple Crown. This years candidate has only the second best last-out Beyer and will run with a patched quarter crack on his left front hoof. Unless you?re selling framed win tickets from the three-race series on eBay at a nice mark-up, 2-5 is about all Big Brown can do for you. At the same time, taking perhaps 3-1 on Casino Drive to win the Belmont as a clear second choice doesn?t seem like much of a bargain, either, no matter how impressive he was in the Peter Pan. As exacta bettors eventually learn from painful experience, the two best horses aren?t always the most probable one-two finishers. Such a scenario could occur with Big Brown and Casino Drive, who will probably indulge Da? Tara with the early lead while positioned in front of the others in a game of cat-and-mouse, and quicken in tandem around the far turn. Whichever one survives an enervating duel probably wins, but the other is vulnerable to any of several late-running types that don?t look as good on paper. Big Brown could run back to his Kentucky Derby figure and invite comparisons to the all-time greats. Or he might have too much pent-up energy after missing several days of training ? ?He was trying to get away from me early,? said his exercise rider, Michelle Nevin, after Tuesday?s workout ? and find himself running on fumes by the quarter pole. Based on his pedigree and two blowout wins nearly 7,000 miles apart, Casino Drive might be a truly special horse; or this might be a case of too much, too soon. Either way, it?s quite possible one will crack, but probably not both. To capitalize in the exacta, it makes sense to key one of them and try to get someone else to pick up the pieces for second. I will bet Big Brown is the survivor, and key him over the 3-4-7 finishers from the Derby. For every $1 using Denis of Cork (improved 10 positions in the final quarter, candidate to improve) and Tale of Ekati (hot trainer, horse for course), I will take $2 with Anal Nakal in the hopes he can provide Nick Zito with his seventh runner-up finish in the Belmont. Most recently, the Zito-trained Birdstone ($74) and Andromeda?s Hero (second at 11-1) each ran eighth in the Derby and improved five weeks later.