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Page 1 of 1 1 Topic Options #134438 - 05/03/08 12:16 AM Kentucky Derby FREAK FREAK 2007 Bad Man Champion Owner Registered: 12/01/00 Posts: 45086 Loc: Time to play the Game Online Solving this particular Kentucky Derby (G1) is not for the faint of heart, as you have nearly half of the field coming off synthetic tries, four who have never won on the dirt, many who we feel are not race-fit to contest 10 furlongs beneath the Twin Spires, and a likely heavy favorite who has had only three career starts. We've tried to identify the strongest prep race in deciphering this puzzle, and it seemed obvious to us that the Wood Memorial S. (G1) was the deepest pre-Derby field, with four graded stakes winners and the talented Giant Moon (Giant's Causeway) among its cast. We could have gone either way in the top slot, but we've given the slightest of edges to COURT VISION (Gulch) to run them down late to give Bill Mott his first win in a Triple Crown event. The late-running Kentucky-bred has never missed the board in six lifetime tries, led by wins in the Remsen S. (G2) and Iroquois S. (G3) at two, and seems poised for a career-best on Derby Day. A wide-trip third in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) in his sophomore debut, the dark bay failed to capitalize on the wicked pace set in the Wood but still finished a decent third while earning a lifetime best 98 BRIS Speed number. Equipped with blinkers in his last two drills, and adding them for the Derby, the colt may have really turned the corner with eye-popping works, and he should be as fit as any in the field due to the solid foundation he absorbed as a freshman. We love Garrett Gomez and figure it's his time to earn Derby glory. Wood victor TALE OF EKATI (Tale of the Cat) was stylish when taking the Futurity S. (G2) last campaign and could be rounding into his best form in here for Barclay Tagg. The well-bred bay began this season with a listless sixth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and didn't exactly fly home in the Wood, but he was part of the robust pace and stayed on, showing his immeasurable heart. Bred in the Bluegrass State and named after a diamond mine of owner/breeder Charles Fipke, this gem has excellent tactical speed and should get first run on the closers with his best. Eibar Coa will be in the irons aboard the classy three-year-old. DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) has a world of talent and couldn't have looked better in his Southwest S. (G3) romp earlier in the year, but it's hard to back him for the win coming off his fifth-place showing in the Illinois Derby (G2). The David Carroll pupil began his career with a visually impressive maiden win over this oval and won his first two tries of this campaign, prior to his puzzling effort in Illinois. Many, including myself, have questioned the preparation of this sophomore leading up to this event, but maybe we're flat wrong and the connections will be rewarded with their decision. We consider this one a live top three threat under Calvin Borel. If PYRO (Pulpit) was a true distance horse he'd be our surefire top selection, but some stamina questions arise about the ultra-talented sophomore. The striking colt began this campaign with an eye-popping, last-to-first burst in the Risen Star S. (G3) and came back to easily take the Louisiana Derby, but he hit a snag along the way to Louisville, never firing in the Blue Grass S. (G1) over the Polytrack at Keeneland. We don't take that showing all that seriously, but we also don't feel that prep will help him in this race and must choose against him for the win. The Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred could simply be better than his rivals and run by them late, but we prefer to use him to complete the gimmicks under Shaun Bridgmohan. BIG BROWN (Boundary) is the wildcard in the field and will almost surely be popular among the big bettors in here for the ultra-confident Richard Dutrow. A remarkable 11 1/4-length winner in his lone start at two over the Saratoga lawn, the superb colt won his seasonal debut for fun and followed that with a five-length tour de force in the Florida Derby (G1) in just his third lifetime try, earning a field-best 110 Speed figure in the process. We have two major concerns regarding the phenom: he's not bred to run this far and he possesses only three lifetime tries. On this occasion, we have to let him beat us, but he could still earn a placing with a sensible trip. COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) may be the most logical pick in the field as he is bred to handle 10 panels, the colt has never been worse than second running against California's best, and he could be ready for a peak effort on Derby Day. The Eoin Harty charge turned heads with his impressive Real Quiet S. score as a juvenile and concluded his campaign with a decent second in the CashCall Futurity (G1). In 2008, the bay colt took the Sham S. (G3) and, most recently, the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and he has trained forwardly in preparation for the biggest event of his career. We've always thought of the Kentucky-bred as more of a blue collar athlete rather than an explosive runner, and his lack of early foot could find him behind a dozen or more horses around the backstretch. Colonel John has never raced on dirt and this is a difficult time to experiment with anything new. Corey Nakatani will guide the colt, who could surely land in the top three if he likes this oval. It's hard to argue with the fact that BIG TRUCK (Hook and Ladder) is one of the most experienced members of the field, and he deserves a second look based on that fact alone, when facing so many lightly raced competitors. The Tagg pupil was live from the word go when breaking his maiden at Saratoga at 3-5 odds, followed by a score in the Bertram Bongard S. at 1-5. The Empire State-bred has raced four times this year, with his best result coming in his Tampa Bay Derby (G3) win, and he's run nearly eight miles in competition since last summer. The bay has never disgraced himself against top company, with the lone exception of his 11th in the Blue Grass in his Polytrack debut, and he owns a ton of stamina through his female line. We think the colt has a chance to finish in the top four at big odds. COWBOY CAL (Giant's Causeway) could be the stronger of the Todd Pletcher duo and comes in off a sharp second in the Blue Grass. The well-bred colt finished unplaced in a six-furlong sprint in his debut at Saratoga, his lone attempt on dirt so far, but turned the corner in a hurry when placed on the grass, reeling off a trio of wins in succession, including the Tropical Park Derby (G3) two back. The Kentucky-bred is still a mystery of sorts on the main oval and he loves to be on or near the early tempo, but if he endures a good trip and handles this surface, he will be a huge threat in the lane. Pletcher's number one, John Velazquez, has stuck with this colt throughout his three-year-old campaign and we find that as a huge positive. We consider the dark bay a home run or strikeout candidate, with little in between. Your call. ADRIANO (A.P. Indy) is another in the Cowboy Cal mold for Graham Motion, in that he is an excellent turf and synthetic performer, but his chances in here will depend almost solely on his ability to handle the dirt. In his lone try on dirt, the well-bred colt never factored in the Fountain of Youth but he shouldn't be dismissed too quickly, as he rebounded with a win in the Lane's End S. (G2) and secured the services of jockey Edgar Prado, who had various options but stuck with this colt. He has the right running style and a nice turn of foot, so we'll use this horse with cautious optimism. Z HUMOR (Distorted Humor) is our exotics bomb pick for Mott, as we think the well-bred colt is primed for a lifetime effort in here. The bay was an electric debut winner at Saratoga in the summer and capped his five-race juvenile season with a dead-heat win in the Delta Jackpot S. (G3). Although the Kentucky-bred has failed to impress in three tries in 2008, he has improved his placing each time and has posted a pair of solid drills over this surface. We love the bay's pedigree, running style and improving form. We would have a hard time seeing him in the winner's circle, but a third-place effort at steep odds would be just fine. Note that the blinkers are coming off for the Derby. GAYEGO (Gilded Time) is bred to be a miler but has overachieved to this point for Paulo Lobo. The ultra-consistent dark bay has finished first or second in all five career starts and ran his best race to date when taking the Arkansas Derby (G2) in his dirt debut. The colt has a world of tactical speed and should be in the early mix under Mike Smith, and if he duplicates his Arkansas form, he could get a piece of the pie at a solid price. Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]) is an admirable runner who almost always shows up with a solid race, but he simply looks a step or two slower than most of his counterparts. The New York-bred made a big move in the Arkansas Derby most recently only to fall short, but he finished well clear of third in a perfect prep for this. Steve Asmussen's second-stringer may have some distance limitations, as well, but he's a steady performer who could hit the tri or super under the right scenario. MONBA (Maria's Mon) upset the Blue Grass field for Pletcher last out and is a winner over this surface, so he's yet another who needs a closer examination in this field. The talented three-year-old was a fast-closing fourth in the CashCall Futurity to conclude his freshman campaign but flopped in a big way in his seasonal bow, finishing a troubled last in the Fountain of Youth, prior to rebounding in the Blue Grass. He's bred for stamina top and bottom and has pleased his conditioner with his morning work, but we question his overall fitness with just one real test from a two-race sophomore season. The gray has ability but we can't see him peaking in here. COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) was another who was done in by the artificial going in the Blue Grass, but one only has to look back to late February to see this colt's win in the Fountain of Youth for Nick Zito. On that day and in his previous race, the bay displayed excellent tactical speed and a sharp acceleration approaching the final turn, two things that will only aid him in this testing event. We like the fact the sophomore earned a career-best 101 Speed number in an allowance win over this famed strip last fall, and he should be fit after a five-race juvenile season and three tries this year. Without sounding redundant, the colt could be included in the payouts with the right trip, but we don't like him to win this. EIGHT BELLES (Unbridled's Song) has been brilliant versus fillies this year for Larry Jones and comes off a classy win in the Fantasy S. (G2) at Oaklawn. Although this may not be the deepest Derby field ever assembled, the lass is not head and shoulders above her own sex and she remains a huge question mark at anything close to 10 furlongs. Indeed, she has never been beyond 1 1/16 miles. In her defense, she should be in as good a shape as any in the field, she's perfect this year, and she's earned triple-digit BRIS Late Pace figures in four of her last five outings. SMOOTH AIR (Smooth Jazz) is a game horse who has outrun his pedigree to date for Bennie Stutts Jr. The Florida-bred was well clear in second in the Florida Derby and has never been unplaced in five stakes tries, which includes a tally in the Hutcheson S. (G2). His third two prior in the Sam F. Davis S. impressed us as much as his last one did, but will either one be good enough to take home the lion's share of the $2 million purse? We don't think so, but he wouldn't be the worst stab in the world to include in your vertical exotics at boxcar odds. VISIONAIRE (Grand Slam) has never been worse than third in his five dirt tries and is trained by Michael Matz, who needs no introduction to Churchill Downs, but we question his chances at this 10-furlong trip, and we're not sure if he's good enough on his best day. The Kentucky-bred took the Gotham S. (G3) two back and showed some late interest in the Blue Grass, but we think he's more than vulnerable in here and must pass. RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Cherokee Run) rolled home by four lengths in the recent Illinois Derby and is handled by trainer Louis Roussel III, but he would be a surprise in here. The bay colt had a useful juvenile season, posting a win and a second-place effort behind Cool Coal Man in a paceless allowance heat, but he looks like he could use another race or two before tackling this trip. The sophomore is not bred to run this far and could be part of a wicked early pace, so we'll look elsewhere at this time. ANAK NAKAL (Victory Gallop) is a Grade 2 winner at Churchill, garnering the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) last November, and will take the blinkers off for Zito. However, his form has been too bad this year for us to recommend his chances. BOB BLACK JACK (Stormy Jack) has one chance in here, to go to the lead and hope to endure the 1 1/4 miles before anyone reels him in. We are not confident in the Santa Anita Derby runner-up's chances to do that, so we'll leave him off our ticket. 1st-COURT VISION 2nd-TALE OF EKATI 3rd-DENIS OF CORK _________________________ Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily. Top #134439 - 05/03/08 07:23 AM Re: Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK] FREAK FREAK 2007 Bad Man Champion Owner Registered: 12/01/00 Posts: 45086 Loc: Time to play the Game Online I am taking Pyro to win. _________________________ Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily. Top #134445 - 05/03/08 09:53 AM Re: Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK] devilsbag devilsbag Sophmore Registered: 11/19/07 Posts: 85 Offline freak.....i really like pyro and i am throwing out his last on the poly. he has the right style for todays race with all the speed thats in it. one thing that i see that i can't seem to get away from is pyro beat z fortune by only 2 lengths while carrying 6 lbs less. at even weights that moves z fortune ahead of pyro. not to enthused by z fortunes slop pedigree, though. just something i'm looking at Top #134455 - 05/03/08 12:14 PM Re: Kentucky Derby [Re: devilsbag] FREAK FREAK 2007 Bad Man Champion Owner Registered: 12/01/00 Posts: 45086 Loc: Time to play the Game Online Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, May 3rd, 2008 Churchill Downs Race 10 - 134th Running of the Kentucky Derby Churchill Downs Race 10 - 134th Running of the Kentucky Derby 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $2,000,000. Post Time: ET Race Synopsis The Kentucky Derby, then and now. Handicapping thoroughbred races has always been a complex process. Now, with the emergence of synthetic tracks the last few years, that task has become increasingly more difficult, if not down right impossible as these “fake” surfaces have wreaked havoc with handicapping. Case in point is the recently concluded Keeneland meet, where favorites took it on the chin, winning at a rate that is far below the national average. While it is true that no dirt tracks are alike, each synthetic surface has its own nuance as well. Perhaps even more so, these artificial tracks are supposedly comprised of relatively the same materials. Even if a thoroughbred possesses the so-called “proper breeding” necessary to handle this new wave type of surface, there is no guarantee that they will ultimately find it to their liking, as it has been stated that they change constantly due to weather, racing, and even track maintenance. While I am all for safety in racing for all concerned, bettors have voiced their discontent as to the complexities of handicapping those tracks who have made the change to synthetic. As a result, handicapping has become more difficult at these venues, and the Kentucky Derby has been impacted as well. Handicappers must ascertain whether those horses that lack traditional dirt form, will be able to produce their “A” race at Churchill Downs. Also, some of the trainers who once dominated the Kentucky Derby have fallen by the wayside. In recent years, D. Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert, who were a conspicuous presence in the Run for the Roses, and could be counted upon to have a legitimate contender or two, have been absent of late. And, while trainer Nick Zito will be represented this year, he is not the major force he once was. I suppose it is great to have an infusion of new blood, but it seems these changes are all happening at once. Undoubtedly, there has been a changing of the guard, as every year there seems to be a different trainer, a relative newcomer to the Triple Crown trail, who journeys to Louisville seeking fame and glory at Churchill Downs, and ultimately comes away with his or her name etched in the annals of racing history. Life, as we all know, is full of changes. We all do our very best to adapt to these new challenges whether they be in our daily lives, or even something, as inconsequential at times, as isolating the winner of a horserace. Selecting the Kentucky Derby winner, which has always been demanding, seems to be more troublesome these days. This year, several major contenders are unproven over a conventional dirt surface, let alone Churchill Downs. In years past, horses were eliminated based upon their Dosage Index, which indicated their ability, or lack thereof of getting the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance. Also, runners which failed to be within 10 lbs. of the top horse on the Experimental Free Handicap were cast aside due to lack of accomplishment as a two-year-old. Number of starts, days away, and even the finish position from a horse’s last prep race, have been angles used by handicappers at one time or another to pare a bulky Derby field down to a palatable number of contenders. While I may have gone off on a tangent, what I am trying to say is that it is extremely difficult these days to eliminate any horse from consideration in the Kentucky Derby based solely upon a predetermined set of rules. The Kentucky Derby may just be the most difficult race in the world to handicap, in addition to being the most recognized. While everyone wants to brag about picking the Derby winner, I am thrilled whenever I show a profit in the race. Despite the fact that most everyone believes that handicapping the winner is the path to profitability in thoroughbred racing, the key that unlocks the door is diligently betting what you have handicapped. Keeping that thought in mind, good luck in this year’s Kentucky Derby! The Field from the rail out # Name ML 1 COOL COAL MAN 20/1 2 TALE OF EKATI 15/1 3 ANAK NAKAL 30/1 4 COURT VISION 20/1 5 EIGHT BELLES 15/1 6 Z FORTUNE 15/1 7 BIG TRUCK 50/1 8 VISIONAIRE 20/1 9 PYRO 6/1 10 COLONEL JOHN 4/1 11 Z HUMOR 30/1 12 SMOOTH AIR 20/1 13 BOB BLACK JACK 20/1 14 MONBA 15/1 15 ADRIANO 30/1 16 DENIS OF CORK 20/1 17 COWBOY CAL 20/1 18 RECAPTURETHEGLORY 20/1 19 GAYEGO 15/1 20 BIG BROWN 3/1 First Selection: (20) BIG BROWN (Dutrow Richard E/Desormeaux K J) It was closing day at Saratoga when Big Brown made his debut going two turns on grass. Racing without lasix and ice cold in the betting at 14-1, it was unlikely that he would win. When the gates opened, Big Brown zipped to the lead and never looked back, scoring a scintillating eleven length victory. I was mesmerized by his performance. Big Brown moved effortlessly with giant strides. I said to myself that he was going to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, to be run for the first time at Monmouth Park in late October. It never occurred to me that Big Brown’s bright future could also be on dirt and as the favorite to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. IEAH Stables purchased a majority interest in Big Brown from owner Paul Pompa Jr. after his maiden win and gave him to trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. Dutrow is the son of Richard Dutrow Sr. who was one of the most successful trainers on the Maryland circuit. When he passed away in 1999, he had won 3,665 races, placing him 13th in all time in victories. Big Brown was pointed for Juvenile Turf, but during a workout on grass at Aqueduct before the race, Big Brown developed a foot infection. It was discovered shortly after that he had a quarter crack. Quarter cracks are vertical cracks in the hairline or coronary band of the horses hoof. They can be large or small and they can make a horse lame. Big Brown was given time to recover. Later in the year he was shipped down to Palm Meadows training center in south Florida to begin training again. He soon developed another quarter crack in the opposite foot and had to be put on the sidelines once again. It wasn’t until early February that his foot problems were behind him and he could go back to serious training. Big Browns workouts were strong. When he easily outworked an older stakes winner named Diamond Stripes, Dutrow knew he had a potential star in his barn (Diamond Stripes has since come back to win the $1 million dollar Godolphin Mile on Dubai World Cup Day). On March 5, Big Brown finally returned to Gulfstream Park. The race was scheduled for the grass, but wet weather forced it to be switched to the dirt track. Despite not being a 100 % fit, Big Brown demolished the field winning by twelve lengths. Even Dutrow was shocked by the performance. He told reporters “we did get very lucky for it to come off the grass. If it hadn’t, we might have not run in the Florida Derby!” Twenty four days later Big Brown entered the gate as the heavy favorite for one of the “key” Kentucky Derby prep races. Big Brown had a tough task having to overcome an outside post in a field of twelve. Following is my Stakes write up on Big Brown when I selected him to win the Florida Derby. All I have read this week is that any horse breaking from post 12 at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream is unlikely to win. History in this race has confirmed this. The Wizard feels differently. They said that about top grass miler Lure when he won the BC mile from post 12. I can go on and on about the critics knocking horses because of false myths. Racing has changed in the US. Horses are not bred the same as in the past. I like to go the other way when others take the path of least resistance. That is why I like Big Brown to win the Florida Derby. I could be wrong, but so can trainer Richard Dutrow who has elected to stay in Florida to saddle this 3 year old, instead of flying to Dubai and enjoying the luxuries only we can imagine and dream off. That tells me that it is more important to him to win this 1 million dollar race instead of the cool 2 million he can earn with Benny The Bull winning the sprint. (I know for a fact that Dutrow has no problem flying around the place when big money is on the line). I am not concerned one bit about the outside post, because there is a lack of early speed in the race. Rider Desormeaux can shoot to the lead or stalk without losing much ground around the first turn. He has worked brilliantly for this race. I love Dutrow in big game situations. I may be wrong, but if I am, chalk one up for the majority. Big Brown shot to the lead and never looked back, winning by five lengths. Big Brown's final time of 1:48.16 was just 0.37 of a second off Brass Hat's 1 1/8-mile track record, and nearly a full second faster than 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro's final clocking for his Florida Derby victory earlier that spring. It was also the fastest Florida Derby since Unbridled's Song's victory in 1996. Since the Florida Derby, Big Brown has not missed a beat. Not only do I think Big Brown is the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, but I also have a special rooting interest in him. Having grown up in New York City and spending many years going to Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga, I have become friendly with many trainers, especially when I became a professional handicapper in the mid eighties. I first met Richard Dutrow in the mid nineties and we have been friendly since. I have closely watched his progression from strictly a claiming trainer to one who has built one of the strongest operations in the world. In 2005 Dutrow won two Breeders’ Cup races on the same day capped off with a victory by Saint Liam in the $4 million dollar Breeders’ Cup Classic. He has won such prestigious Grade 1 races as the Metropolitan Mile, The Carter, Coaching Club American Oaks, De Francis Dash and The Frank Kilroe Mile. Last year Dutrow won the Breeders’ Cup Mile with Kip Deville who also was plagued by quarter cracks. This year he won two races on Dubai World Cup day with Diamond Stripes and the super sprinter Benny The Bull. My main concern for Big Brown is not the distance, nor the fact that he has had only three career starts. It all comes down to how he is ridden. There are only two scenarios for him to be crowned the winner of The Kentucky Derby. He either clears to the lead early, setting a comfortable pace, or he takes back to stalk the front runners. I expect the latter, given his far outside draw. He might be caught somewhat wide while trying to gain position behind the front-runners, but that's better than being stuck down inside while in traffic all the way. The outermost post may also be a good thing in that he will load last, and not have to stand in the gate for nearly as long as many of the other horses. Big Brown will be very difficult to run down if he can open up daylight turning for home. As in most Derbys, the pace is expected to be quick. Jockey Kent Desormeaux must make a perfectly-timed move to challenge for the lead on the far turn. The longer he can wait, the better. If Big Brown duels or cannot open up turning for home, he will be in deep water. This could set it up for the closers, in particular Colonel John, who I feel is his most dangerous rival. Second Selection: (10) COLONEL JOHN (Harty Eoin/Nakatani C S) If you are looking for a horse to beat the Derby favorite Big Brown, your search may be over. Bred in Kentucky by high profile Win Star Farm, Colonel John was cut out to be a good horse from birth. His sire, Tiznow, a California-bred runner, was a dominant force in the Handicap ranks out west from 2000 to 2001. However, his greatest accomplishments came outside of the Golden State, as he emerged victorious in the Breeder’s Cup Classic in 2000 at Churchill Downs. He successfully defended his title the following year in New York, annexing the 2001 Classic at Belmont Park in dramatic fashion. Although his dam was not as accomplished a runner on the racetrack, she was nevertheless versatile, finding her best stride after a winless juvenile season. In all, she won five races throughout her career, handling dirt, grass and eventually winning over a wet track as well. While Big Brown grabs your attention with his brilliance, and rightfully so, Colonel John has been nothing short of remarkable with his consistency during his brief career. Trained by Eoin Harty, who tutored under trainer Bob Baffert, he has never been worse than second in six career starts, winning on four occasions, and placing on two others. Perhaps a good example of his grit and determination was his recent victory in the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. In that contest, Colonel John lost both position and ground around the far turn, which never bodes well for a winner. However, once jockey Corey Nakatani maneuvered him outside of runners for a stretch bid, he finally began to pick up the pace. With three lengths to make up passing the furlong grounds, Colonel John kicked into overdrive under Nakatani, eventually overhauling a game Bob Black Jack in deep stretch to triumph in dramatic fashion. His final burst of acceleration that day caught my eye, and it clearly enabled Colonel John to effectively snatch “victory from the jaws of defeat”. While he certainly could never be considered a flashy runner, his workmanlike performances on the racetrack have served him well. Except for his debut effort last summer at Del Mar, Colonel John has not failed to gain ground and/or pass horses in the stretch in his five subsequent starts. That should serve him well as he faces his sternest test to date. Like several other runners competing in the Run for the Roses, Colonel John is untested over a traditional dirt surface. When he first shipped into Churchill Downs, it took him a while to become acclimated to his new surroundings. He appeared to be a bit unsure of himself, tentative if you will, and noticeably struggled to become familiar with this new surface. However, since that time, he has noticeably turned the corner as evidenced by his “eye-popping” work on Sunday in 57.61, eventually completing the six furlongs of his gallop-out in a sprightly 1:10.99. After the work, Eoin Harty pronounced him back to his old self, and ready for the challenge that lies ahead of him. If that bullet workout is a true indication of his current level of sharpness, Colonel John could be on the brink of taking his game to another level at a most opportune time. Earlier, I went into great detail about Colonel John’s pedigree. And, I did so for a reason. Although I am of the opinion that while he might be the most talented horse in the race, he has been an absolute gem of consistency, and is one of only a few runners that are ideally suited to 1-1/4 miles. While the majority of the competition may be gasping for breath as the Derby field turns into the stretch, Colonel John should be finding his best stride at this time. If this Win Star farm homebred is within striking distance of the leaders, and is afforded clear sailing for a late rally, a victory could be in the cards. Third Selection: (14) MONBA (Pletcher Todd A/Dominguez R A) Monba is one of two Todd Pletcher entrants in the Derby. There are several reasons to consider him a major player. Monba has won three of five starts. His twelfth place finish in the Fountain Of Youth can easily be ignored. He was squeezed back into the first turn. Obviously something went amiss at that point when he fell back steadily under no urging by rider Edgar Prado. In his final prep for the Derby, Monba returned with a vengeance, to score a gritty win in the Blue Grass. That victory gave him a perfect two for two record over the Keeneland polytrack. It’s back to a conventional dirt track at Churchill for the Derby. Can he be as effective with the switch in surfaces? I see no reason that he can’t. Monba broke his maiden first time out at Keeneland as a two year old, and then came right back to win at a mile at Churchill Downs. Monba is a versatile performer who can adapt to any pace scenario. He has shown the ability to race up close to the lead, or close from behind. A very important factor, which will go unnoticed, is that in all five starts, Monba has raced in full fields of twelve. This can only help him in the Derby where he will not be intimidated by nineteen other horses jockeying for position. It is significant that Edgar Prado who rode him to victory in the Blue Grass, has opted to ride Adriano instead. Fourth Selection: (19) GAYEGO (Lobo Paulo H/Smith M E) Gayego is a sharp and improving colt that has never been worse than second in five starts. He has shown that his tactical speed is just as effective going a distance of ground as it is sprinting. Unlike his west coast rival, Colonel John, Gayego has proven he can win outside California on a conventional dirt surface. He won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park three weeks ago where he forced the pace from the start, holding off a stiff challenge from Z Fortune in the final eighth of a mile. There are two major factors which make him competitive in the Derby. Gayego has shown he has the courage to look a horse in the eye and battle tooth and nail down to the wire. His tactical speed enables his Hall Of Fame rider Mike Smith to place him in perfect striking position from the outset. Gayego also has trainer Paulo Lobo in his corner. Lobo is a master at having a quality performer dead fit for a peak performance in a major stakes event. Lobo shipped in Farda Amiga to Churchill Downs to upset the odds on favorite Take Charge Lady in the 2002 Kentucky Oaks. Fifth Selection: (9) PYRO (Asmussen Steven M/Bridgmohan S X) It is impossible for me to give Pyro a pass after a horrendous performance in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. In his first start over polytrack, he showed me nothing at any point during the race. From start to finish, Pyro lost ground at every call, finishing 10th in a field of 12. This is not the type of race I want to see three weeks before the Derby. Pyro’s lofty reputation was built on two strong second place finishes as a two year old against juvenile champion War Pass as well as two stakes wins at the Fair Grounds this winter. All four races were run on dirt. Does this mean that a return to his preferred surface Saturday is enough to reverse his April 12 debacle into a potential victory? Not in my opinion, but I do believe that he could be finishing strongly enough to pass most of the field and garner a minor award. Even if Pyro won the Blue Grass, I would have felt he was a strong “bet against” for the win spot in the Kentucky Derby. Both of his graded stakes wins were at 1-1/16 miles. Even though he rated beautifully in both races, and had a strong stretch kick, for some reason, Pyro never gave me the impression that his closing rally would be as effective at the Derby distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen indicated following the Blue Grass that he was concerned Pyro got nothing out of that race. That does concern me, but I also look at Pyro's record of running very well on five different dirt surfaces, ranging from 'fast' to 'good' to 'sloppy', and he must be given a chance to rebound with one of his typical strong performances here over a track where he won his only prior try. The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference) (4) COURT VISION (Mott William I/Gomez G K) At the conclusion of Court Vision’s two year old campaign, I had him penciled in as a serious Kentucky Derby victor. He had reeled off three straight victories, capped off by a game win in the Remson Stakes at Aqueduct. Several winners of this important two year old stake have subsequently gone on to win or run well in past Kentucky Derby’s. As a three year old, Court Vision has not improved enough to consider himself as a Derby winner. He has run third in both starts this year. In the Fountain Of Youth, Court Vision sustained a wide rally. It appeared that the game plan of his Hall Of Fame trainer Billy Mott and jockey Garret Gomez was to “give him one”. I thought it was a perfect sharpener for the Wood Memorial. I expected a much better performance than what I got in the Wood. Court Vision was taken far off the pace, closing ground through the stretch to miss by 1 ¾ lengths. His performance was more an optical illusion than the solid effort I was looking for. The final time of the Wood was very slow, especially the last eighth of a mile. Court Vision had every chance to win but he could not get the job done. In a field of twenty, which he will encounter in the Derby, He cannot afford a straw in his path when his rider sets him down in the stretch. In the Derby Court Vision will be equipped with blinkers for the first time, but It’s is too late in the game to be a plus. (15) ADRIANO (Motion H Graham/Prado E S) Adriano enters the Derby after a strong win five weeks ago in the Lanes End Stakes over polytrack at Turfway Park. Both his prior victories had come on grass. The question remains, will Adriano run a career best effort over conventional dirt at Churchill Downs? He will need to do so to be considered a major player. I feel he can. Adriano was well beaten in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park prior to the Lanes End. I am willing to excuse that effort. He was severely compromised breaking from an outside post in a field of twelve. Once Adriano took up on the first turn, for all intensive purposes, he was done. In the Lanes End, Adriano’s performance was visually impressive. He showed improved early speed under new rider Edgar Prado. When Prado pushed the button, Adriano responded effortlessly to take the lead turning for home, winning as much the best. He galloped out strong past the wire, suggesting there should be no problem whatsoever about his ability to relish 1 ¼ miles in the Derby. His pedigree suggests that the longer he goes, the stronger he will be. Superb horseman Graham Motion is a master at developing horses who are bred to go a distance of ground. It is interesting to note that Prado has elected to stay aboard Adriano in the Derby, rather than ride Monba or Tale Of Etaki. He had ridden both horses to victories in their final Derby prep races. Last Sunday, Adriano worked over the Churchill Downs main track for the first time. He seemed not to handle it very well. For this reason, I downgraded his chances. (6) Z FORTUNE (Asmussen Steven M/Albarado R J) If Z Fortune were to win the Kentucky Derby, he would join Funny Cide as one of the only two horses bred in New York State to have won The Run for the Roses. Unfortunately for this colt, it will not be his good fortune. Z Fortune comes into the Derby following three straight defeats. He was easily swallowed up by Pyro when second in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds. In the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, Z Fortune came up empty. He rebounded with a solid second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby, but had the length of the stretch to run down that rival. Z Fortune possesses excellent tactical speed and agility, but everything I have seen indicates that the 1-1/4 mile Derby distance does not play in his favor. (8) VISIONAIRE (Matz Michael R/Lezcano Jose) Visionaire has only run worse than third once in six starts and that was a fifth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago. Visionaire was making his first start on polytrack that afternoon. On closer inspection, he ran better than it “looks on paper”. Visionaire had a difficult task overcoming a tough outside post in a field of twelve. He rallied through the stretch racing extremely wide. In the Derby, he will have to step up his game “big time” to be competitive. At this point in his career, Visionaire has proven to be a cut below his major opposition. Two of his three wins have been at a mile, the lone exception being a victory on wet track at 1 1/16 miles which suggests that the Derby distance is too far for him. (16) DENIS OF CORK (Carroll David/Borel C H) Denis Of Cork inspires very little confidence after running poorly as the heavy favorite in the Illinois Derby four weeks ago. His effort was a head scratcher because he had run well in his prior three starts, winning each time at three different racetracks, including a maiden win first time out of the box at Churchill Downs. Denis Of Cork likes to lay back and make one well timed rally. The faster the pace, the better it flatters his running style. Even if I give him a “pass”, when he ran fifth in The Illinois Derby, he has proven to be a cut below several of his rivals in the Derby. Denis Of Cork also has the looks of a runner with distance limitations. 1-1/4 miles is simply too far for him. (5) EIGHT BELLES (Jones J Larry/Saez Gabriel) Eight Belles will attempt to be the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby in 133 years. Only Winning Colors in 1988, Genuine Risk in 1980 and Regret in 1915, have won The Run For The Roses. Even though Eight Belles is a quality performer, she is clearly not in the same league as the others. Eight Belles enters the Derby off four straight victories, three in stakes races. In her last two, she raced against fields of three and five. In the Derby, Eight Belles will be facing nineteen males. In her last start in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park, I expected her to win more impressively than she did as the overwhelming favorite. Eight Belles is a very versatile filly. She can stalk or rally from off the pace. She has shown a tendency to break awkwardly from the gate. If this were to occur in the Derby, it would become a monumental task to recover in such big field. I feel that Eight Belles does have the talent to be competitive against this crop of three year olds. I am concerned about her ability to perform her best at the Derby distance. (2) TALE OF EKATI (Tagg Barclay/Coa E M) Tale of Etakai won two races, both sprinting, as a two year old. In his first start as a three year old, he was well beaten by Pyro in the Louisiana Derby. This was Tale of Etaki’s first start around two turns on a dry surface. Off that effort, I found it difficult to select him to win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his next start. He surprised me when he went on to defeat last year’s juvenile champion War Pass. Tale of Etaki sat a perfect rail trip through the stretch to run down a tired War Pass. The last three furlongs, as well as the final time, were slow. His weak gallop out past the wire indicated to me that I don’t want him on my short list of major contenders. History has shown that any horse that runs well in the Wood must be considered a danger in the Kentucky Derby. Most years I would agree with this assessment, but this year I am not convinced. Recent Hall Of Fame inductee Edgar Prado opted to ride Adriano over Tale of Etaki, which is also a factor that must be considered in assessing his chances relative to those of others in this field. (13) BOB BLACK JACK (Kasparoff James M/Migliore R) Bob Black Jack will be making his first start on a conventional dirt surface after seven starts on polytrack and syntyhetic surfaces in Southern California. All three of his victories have come in sprints. In his last two starts, Bob Black Jack stretched out to two turns and ran better than I expected. His second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago was excellent. He battled tooth and nail, only to be run down in the very late stages by Colonel John. I did not like the fact that he drifted out late after such a grueling effort. Bob Black Jack knows only one way to win and that is the front end. He will be hounded from the start by other front runners and Big Brown waiting to pounce. I can't see him holding on through the final furlong for anything more than a very minor award. (1) COOL COAL MAN (Zito Nicholas P/Leparoux Julien R) Cool Coal Man’s claim to fame as a three year old was a victory in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. He sat a perfect trip from the advantageous rail post. In his final prep race before the Kentucky Derby, Cool Coal Man flattened out badly, after chasing a slow pace over polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes three weeks ago. He returns to dirt Saturday, which he clearly prefers. All four career wins have been over a dirt surface, one at Churchill. Cool Coal Man possesses excellent tactical speed, but it is likely that 1-1/4 miles is too long a distance for him. (17) COWBOY CAL (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R) Trainer Todd Pletcher has won every award that a horseman can attain in this game, except the most important jewel of them all, The Kentucky Derby. Pletcher has a record of 0-19. On Saturday, he will start two horses, Monba and Cowboy Cal. It is very difficult to separate these two in terms of how I think both will perform in the Derby. As a matter of fact, they squared off three weeks ago on polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Monba defeated Cowboy Cal by a short neck. Cowboy Cal has plenty of upside. He has made a lofty reputation for himself on grass with four excellent races. Three were won effortlessly. His lone start on dirt was a seventh place finish in his debut at Saratoga. Although the verdict is still out on how Cowboy Cal will handle Churchill Down’s conventional dirt surface, his biggest obstacle will be Big Brown. Cowboy Cal likes to be on or near the lead from the start. When he gets hooked by Big Brown, he could very likely “call it a day”. (11) Z HUMOR (Mott William I/Douglas R R) Z Humor’s gut wrenching dead heat victory in his final start as a two year old appeared to have taken its toll. Since that effort, his three races this year have shown nothing to suggest that he will be competitive in the Derby. In each of those starts, he has lost ground in the stretch, whether he stalked slow paces, or tried to close on quick fractions. Z Humor clearly has distance limitations. Offspring of his sire Distorted Humor have proven that they are most effective up to 1 1/16 miles. This will be the point in the race when Z Humor begins to pack it in. (7) BIG TRUCK (Tagg Barclay/Castellano J J) Big Truck has never given me the impression of being a long distance runner. Even though he won the Tampa Bay Derby two starts back at 1 1/16 miles, Big Truck had a perfect trip against a very weak field. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he was a badly beaten eleventh in his first start over polytrack. All three of his wins have come on dirt which he will return to at Churchill Downs. This is a quality New York Bred who would be better served finding a softer spot at distances no further than a mile. (3) ANAK NAKAL (Zito Nicholas P/Bejarano R) Anak Nakal has run on dirt in all six career outings. In his last start as a two year old, he won a Stake at Churchill Downs. Since returning at three, he ran poorly in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream and the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. Anak Nakal showed more life, running fifth with blinkers on, in a slowly run Wood Memorial at Aqueduct four weeks ago. He rallied from far off the pace, picking up tired horses late. Anak Nakal has not shown me enough to consider him a threat in the Derby, especially at the 1-1/4 mile distance. (12) SMOOTH AIR (Stutts Bennie F Jr/Cruz M R) Smooth Air was a no threat second place finisher to Big Brown in the Florida Derby five weeks ago. Off that alone, he should be competitive in the Derby. The only problem is a major one, which greatly diminishes his chances on Saturday. Last week Smooth Air got sick and lost two days of training with a fever. He went back to the track on Monday, and according to his 70 year old trainer Bernie Stutts, “its full steam ahead”. When you are asking a three year old to run 1-1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby after even the slightest illness and missing training time, it is folly to suggest that runner can win, let alone be at his best. If I were the connections of Smooth Air, I would fold my cards now and wait for a better hand. (18) RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Roussel Louis J Iii/Baird E T) Recapturetheglory’s claim to fame entering the Kentucky Derby was his decisive front running victory in the Illinois Derby four weeks ago. He was loose on the lead setting slow fractions. Recapturetheglory also benefitted by a track surface which strongly favored inside speed. He is certain not to get his own way in the Derby. Big Brown will see to that. Wagering Strategy The most important aspect in winning money at the races is the wagering strategies. Many times you can pick the winner, and either lose money on the race, or not optimize your profit. Every race requires a different strategy. The Kentucky Derby is one of the most difficult races to pick the winner, given the field of 20 horses. Once you determine who your “key” horse is, a win bet is the first play you want to make. The next wager is deciding if you want to concentrate on exactas, trifectas or superfectas. The super is the hardest wager to make because it requires you to pick the first 4 horses in order. The ten cent super has become popular because it allows the player, especially a small bettor, to make multiple combinations for a small investment. Unfortunately, in this year’s Derby, the cost of a superfecta play is $1.00. I will suggest a win wager on Big Brown and a smaller “saver” win bet on Colonel John. These are going to be the top two wagering choices. The reason I am making this play is that I like Big Brown. I am making a saver win bet on Colonel John because he will go off at longer odds than what he deserves to be, and he is my second choice. You want to bet enough on Big Brown to show a nice profit, and wager just enough money on Colonel John to break even or make a little money if he wins. The next play is a small equal exacta box with Big Brown and Colonial John. Even though these are the two betting choices, if the exacta comes in, it will be a decent payoff because of the large field. I don’t want to get too involved in the exactas, because I will be concentrating most on the trifectas, where there is the potential for a big score. There will be no superfecta wagers. On our trifectas we will 'key' either Big Brown or Colonel John on top on each ticket. Three of our trifecta tickets require both of them to finish in the top 3, while two of our trifecta tickets only require that one of those two colts wins the race, regardless of what the other does. * A win bet on (20)BIG BROWN . * A smaller saver win bet on (10)COLONEL JOHN . * Exacta box 10-20 . * Trifecta Wagers (all tickets are in denominations of $1.00): . TICKET 1: 10-20 with 10-20 with ALL = $36 TICKET 2: 20 with 9-10-14-19 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-13-14-15-16-19 = $44 TICKET 3: 10 with 9-14-19-20 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19-20 = $44 TICKET 4: 20 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19 with 10 = $11 TICKET 5: 10 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-13-14-15-16-19 with 20 = $11 . TOTAL Trifecta wagers above = $146 _________________________ Be an active member of the community. Make some posts daily. 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