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#134387 - 05/01/08 07:42 PM

Kentucky Oaks

FREAK
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With leading sophomore miss Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song) headed for Saturday's Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) will only see 11 fillies line up in the gate on Friday. With the top contender out, the race has opened up quite a bit, with the likes of COUNTRY STAR (Empire Maker), PROUD SPELL (Proud Citizen), BSHARPSONATA (Pulpit) and PURE CLAN (Pure Prize) all in with a very good chance. However, three of those four runners have already thrown in some very good efforts and, we feel, might have peaked earlier this season. With that in mind, we're tabbing a filly who seems to be rounding into form at just the right time.

LITTLE BELLE (A.P. Indy) began her career last fall at Aqueduct and has shown steady progression in each race since. The bay lass was a rallying fourth in her maiden bow, breaking near the back and making up ground until she finished just two lengths back of the winner while going six furlongs. Next up, she stretched out to a mile and used the extra distance to run third after once again settling near the rear of the field. Given two months off, she reappeared in her first three-year-old effort over Aqueduct's inner dirt on January 13. The miss settled into fourth in the second flight as a runaway leader drew off by as much as 12 lengths on the backstretch. Coming wide around the turn with the eventual winner just to her inside, she couldn't quite keep up and had to settle for second that day. It would be the last time she tasted defeat.

Staying at the same distance, Little Belle tackled a sloppy track in her fourth career start and overcame much trouble to garner her first victory. Breaking from the three hole under regular rider Rajiv Maragh, the three-year-old lass moved up and over to the rail just in behind the early runners. As they rounded the first turn, Maragh suddenly had to pull up on his filly as the runner in front of them was forced to check off the heels of another. He took Little Belle to the outside, but once again found himself standing up and checking in between horses. The jockey maintained his cool, though, keeping his mount in good position and sending her to the front rounding the second turn. She was challenged in the stretch, but quickened her stride to pull off and post her initial victory by 3 1/2 lengths.

With that experience behind her, Little Belle once again stretched out, this time to 1 1/16 miles for the Busher S. just two races back. She overtook the even-money favorite, who had led throughout, entering the lane and was confronted by another rival late before once again quickening to score the win by a 2 3/4-length margin. Her toughest task to date, though, came last out in the Ashland S. (G1) at Keeneland. Using new tactics, the bay moved up to take the lead from her inside post, setting the pace while pressed all the way by Bsharpsonata. Little Belle was overtaken in the stretch, but the game filly battled back on the inside to get up and score by a neck on the line, earning a career-best 99 BRIS Speed rating.

Conditioned by the ever-dangerous Kiaran McLaughlin, Little Belle has been given a month off to prepare for the Oaks and posted two nice works at Keeneland, most recently getting four furlongs in a sharp :46 1/5. Whether she's tracking early or sets the pace, the bay filly appears ready, willing and able to take on all challengers Friday with Maragh in the irons.

Pure Clan has run only twice this spring, but in each case earned stellar BRIS Late Pace figures while rallying against a tough opponent. Undefeated from four starts as a juvenile, she made her three-year-old debut in the Honeybee S. (G3) on March 16, but unfortunately ran into Eight Belles and suffered her first loss while easily second best. She hooked up with that rival once again in the Fantasy S. (G2) and finished third, but was 11 lengths clear of the next filly on the wire. The Bob Holthus trainee will probably enjoy not having to facing Eight Belles again on Friday, and posted a nice 102 BRIS Speed rating for her Fantasy third. Pure Clan brings an added advantage into the Oaks in that she and A TO THE CROFT (Menifee) are the only two with experience competing over Churchill's dirt. The chestnut lass captured her stakes debut in the Pocahontas S. (G3) and then rounded out her juvenile campaign with a two-length score in the Golden Rod S. (G2), both under the Twin Spires. She'll be running late down the stretch under Edgar Prado and is our choice to end the exacta.

Bsharpsonata had a four-race win streak snapped when second to Little Belle in the Ashland last out and will be looking for revenge on Friday. The Tim Salzman-trained bay is one of those versatile runners, winning on both turf and dirt, and had no problem with Keeneland's Polytrack most recently. Making her sophomore bow a 1 1/2-length victory in the grassy Tropical Park Oaks on New Year's Day, she earned a nose score in the Forward Gal S. (G2) over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park next out, earning a 100 Speed figure for her effort. That experience could come in handy on Friday as showers have been forecast to move into the Louisville, Kentucky, area in the late afternoon. Bsharpsonata will be looking to return to her winning ways in this spot against a contentious field, and will keep regular jockey Eric Camacho in the pilot's seat. We'll tab her to round out the top three.

Trainer Larry Jones and jockey Gabriel Saez will be going for a rare Oaks/Derby double with Proud Spell on Friday and Eight Belles in the Run for the Roses. The pressure will be on Saturday for the pair in the first jewel of the Triple Crown, especially if Proud Spell comes through in the Oaks. The bay miss has yet to finish worse than third in her career, with that one coming most recently in the Ashland. She handed champion Indian Blessing (Indian Charlie) her first career loss when taking the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) two back, and is another with sloppy track experience, running second to the aforementioned Indian Blessing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) on Monmouth's sloppy, sealed dirt. Proud Spell logged five furlongs at Churchill in a quick :58 2/5 to get ready for Friday's test, and will be tough to deny in the top three.

Country Star owns just one start this year and has never raced on dirt, but still merits consideration for the gimmicks. The Bobby Frankel charge broke her maiden in the Alcibiades S. (G1) on Keeneland's Polytrack and rounded out her two-year-old campaign with a victory in the Hollywood Starlet S. (G1) on the Cushion Track. She returned to Keeneland to make her only sophomore start to date, running fifth in the Ashland after acting up in the gate, and definitely needed that one prior to the Oaks. Rafael Bejarano has the call.

GOLDEN DOC A (Unusual Heat) is another West Coast-based runner who will be trying for the lilies on Friday while making her dirt debut. The chestnut miss was most recently seen running second in the Beaumont S. (G2) at Keeneland, but earned the bullet designation when going five furlongs in :59 at Churchill last Wednesday. She could come running late to pick up a check under Kent Desormeaux for trainer Barry Abrams.

A to the Croft owns just one win, taking her maiden debut last July at Churchill. Since then, the Kenny McPeek filly has run off-the-board only once, with that coming in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Among her placings is a second in Saratoga's Spinaway S. (G1), and A to the Croft could use her experience at Churchill to earn a share here with top jock Calvin Borel aboard.

AWESOME CHIC (Awesome Again) was a dominant 4 1/2-length winner of the Florida Oaks (G3) in her last start, and enters the Kentucky Oaks off a near two-month layoff. Her numbers are comparable with others in here, but the chestnut lass hasn't exactly been burning up the track at Churchill in her recent works. We'll look for more down the road for this talented miss. ELUSIVE LADY (Van Nistelrooy) might be a cut below the best in this race. Last year's Tempted S. (G3) heroine was third in the Comely S. (G2) most recently, and we'll look forward to seeing her compete in New York this summer.

Both RASIERRA (Kafwain) and ABSOLUTELY CINDY (Arch) have been working well at Churchill, but might not be fast enough to keep up against these. We can't endorse the chances of either one.

1st-LITTLE BELLE
2nd-PURE CLAN
3rd-BSHARPSONATA

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#134400 - 05/02/08 05:36 PM

Re: Kentucky Oaks [Re: FREAK]

FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
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Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45081
Loc: Time to play the Game

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Hell's Bells it is for me, Little Belle !

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#134426 - 05/02/08 06:42 PM

Re: Kentucky Oaks [Re: FREAK]

FREAK
2007 Bad Man Champion
Owner

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 45081
Loc: Time to play the Game

Online

Little Belle didn't quite get there for the win but did manage 2nd and paid a nice $6.40 for the place. The favorite won at 3-1 paying $8.80.

Nice betting race, the Derby will be wide open tomorrow.

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