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#130203 - 03/06/08 10:32 AM

Handicapping Mid-Major Tournaments

ramins
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Scott Spreitzer:

It's hard to believe that tournament basketball is finally here! Several mid major tournaments start this week, with the winners earning automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament. Everybody else has their tournaments the following week.

A year ago at this time I outlined some suggestions for handicapping the mid majors. These tournaments have a different atmosphere because so few teams can count on getting an at large bid. You're going to see some very intense basketball! I'm not going to write up a new version of that piece. But I do want to quickly review those themes. They matter just as much this year as they did last year:

*The TOP teams bring peak intensity because they just can't afford a loss. It's safer to play favorites in these events because so much is stake for the top seeds. Upsets are much more common in the major tournaments where top seeds are already locked into the Dance. Betting against mid major powers is a dicey proposition at best.

*Depth is very important because teams are playing big games on consecutive days. Short rotations fade from fatigue. Deep teams are able to handle the gauntlet.

*Inside basketball trumps outside basketball most of the time. For every game where a team happens to get hot from long range, there are two where the power teams are dominant. Focus on defense and rebounding when comparing teams in a matchup.

*Bad guard play will kill you, but good guard play won't necessarily win any games. The media tends to overrate the impact of guards in tournament action, and underestimate the impact of the inside men. Don't bet on a team just because they've got a star guard. It's okay to bet against teams who are weak at guard.

*Look to play UNDERS in the first half and full game whenever good defenses or slow tempos are on the court. When those factors are in play on a NEUTRAL court, scoring really plummets. Okay, you should know that stuff by now anyway if you're a serious handicapper. I'd like to add these elements to your handicapping arsenal...

*Study how all tournament teams performed in their conference ROAD games. This is usually a great indicator for playoff performance. Some teams who look pretty good in their full season numbers just padded their stats by winning blowouts at home. Unless they're hosting the tournament, they're probably going to underachieve expectations in the tourneys. This particular truth has helped me pick winners for many years. It also works great with college bowl games. Throw out home performances when studying neutral site games. Regular season "road warriors" typically do very well in tournaments.

*Make sure you pay close attention to the turnover category as you study past boxscores, and "read and react" once the tournament is under way. Teams with turnover problems will typically see those magnified in tournaments because the officials don't blow as many whistles. Players have to learn to maintain possession when getting hacked or pushed. The refs just aren't going to bail them out. One reason scoring goes down in tournaments is that more possessions are ending with turnovers instead of free throws. Teams who are prone to losing the ball anyway often have disastrous results. They'll score in the high 40s or 50s rather than the 60s or higher. Look to take the opponent and the Under whenever a sloppy team is playing in a neutral floor in a tourney.

*Remember that teams who live by the three die by the three...which means that any team that just won a big game by making a bunch of treys is about to fall back to earth with a thud. Some of my biggest winners in recent years have come on day two of a tournament because I knew a first round winner had played way over their heads. This one factor can trump everything else. There's just no way to maintain red hot shooting over a period of games. And, there's no way to win if you're having a horrible day from behind the arc. Successful tournament handicapping consists of both pre-tourney preparation and "in the moment" analysis. Either will make you money. Mastering both will make you A LOT of money!

Some of today's issues will also be important in the major tournaments down the road. But, I wanted to point them out to you here because the mid-major conferences can have a lot of variance from top to bottom. There's more consistency in the majors because of the caliber of athletes. When you're talking about the Horizon Conference, or the Sun Belt, or the Ohio Valley, you'll see BIG differences in depth, road play, inside strength, turnover tendencies, and three-point shooting streaks. That leads to some extreme results against conservative Las Vegas pointspreads that are based on full season averages. Double digit covers are common. Finding them ahead of time isn't very difficult if you're studying the right indicators!

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#130303 - 03/07/08 02:51 PM

Re: Handicapping Mid-Major Tournaments [Re: ramins]

ramins
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Also take advantage of this situation. Teams that played and won the night before, will almost always get crushed when thay have to play a day game the following day, because they are tired and must play against the top 2 seeds. This becomes more evident in the second half, as their legs begin to giveout on them.

Indiana state vs Drake was a go-against qualifier today. They were down by 6 at halftime and lost by 22.

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#130509 - 03/10/08 03:37 PM

Re: Handicapping Mid-Major Tournaments [Re: ramins]

ramins
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Capping the Majors. Scott Spreitzer:

*Remember that there's a lot of talent in these high end conferences. That means better shooting and more scoring. You may have watched some defensive-minded Unders in mid-major tourneys this past weekend. Scoring goes up in the better leagues. Save your Under plays for when two very strong defenses are on the court. There's not much Under value otherwise.

*Beware of bubble teams. The media says they have to win. If they could win on command they wouldn't be on the bubble in the first place!

*Focus your matchup analysis on edges in the paint rather than strength from long range. Three-point shooting blows hot and cold. Defense and rebounding are always there for you.

Why would I change from those fundamentals? It's been a weird season. You may have heard media reports this week about the "soft bubble." By that, they mean that there are A LOT of teams on the bubble this year, and hardly any of them have resumes that would inspire anybody. The selection committee will have a hard choice because hardly any of the bubble teams really deserve invitations! This mediocrity in the middle has me a bit concerned about the traditionally sound strategy of going against the big name powers in conference tournaments. You've seen many "public" teams get knocked off surprisingly early in recent seasons. They play flat, and a motivated dog takes them out. Who's going to take them out this year? It's as if the report card lost all the "B" teams that were capable of springing upsets. We just have "A" and "C" teams or worse now. Do I want to take "C" teams plus the points when they've been so unimpressive all year?

I'm going to pay close attention to this in the early rounds. I will very likely be taking the Underdogs when two "A" teams play each other in semifinal or championship games. I might reduce my dog exposure in other types of matchups. That's the great thing about sports. Things are always changing. Sharp handicappers have to adjust on the fly if they want to stay ahead of the oddsmakers.

Other adjustments:

*As I mentioned a few weeks back, three-point shooting has become a bit less random over time. I still prefer defense and rebounding. But I'll be more open-minded about three-point shooting teams in this particular season (the last before the line gets moved back about a foot). The key will be finding teams who can create open looks for themselves. I can tell you I'll be parked in front of the TV broadcasts focusing on this important factor in the early rounds.

*I will definitely be looking more at Overs this year than in the past. You'll find that most professional wagerers focus on underdogs and Unders in their legal sports betting. There are a lot of major conference teams this year that play at very fast paces, and have relatively soft defenses. Combine that with the now common "late free throw parade," and you're going to have some very high scoring games in the coming week. I've been charting everyone’s tempos this season. Some explosive possibilities are lining up.

*I'm going to place a little more emphasis this year on the turnover category. It's always been a key part of the mix. But, this year in particular, it's become kind of a "tie breaker" in big games for me. If an offense still hasn’t figured out how to avoid turnovers this deep into a season, they're going to have real troubles winning high pressure neutral site playoff games. An offense that's good at protecting the ball can keep themselves in the game even if the shots aren't falling for a few minutes. They're not giving away anything easy. Execution matters in tournament games. Handicappers should be focused on evaluating how teams execute.

With the old reliable strategies that still work, plus these new adjustments I'm looking forward to using, I'm entering this particular week as confident as I've ever been. Oddsmakers really struggled last week with their numbers in mid major tournaments. It's going to be even worse for them given the unique challenges in place for rating teams in the major conferences right now. When the oddsmakers are in a position of weakness, we're in a position of strength!

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