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9/20 Statistical Advantages #448737 09/16/19 04:25 AM
Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 255,309 Time to play the Game FREAK OP Owner
OP FREAK Owner Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 255,309 Time to play the Game	Welcome to Statistical Advantages at Freaks Forum Here are other areas of the forum to take part in. Click the link to take you there. Bet The Housefont> <--Your predictions on today’s card. The Paid Professionalsfont> <-- Selections from Paid Handicappers. Free Service Playsfont> <-- Free Selections from Various Handicappers. Selection Centralfont> <-- Your season long betting threads. Can you beat the numbers? Get off the sidelines and into the action. Become a member today Click Here FREAK A post a day and your access will stay!

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Re: 9/20 Statistical Advantages FREAK #448945 09/18/19 06:01 AM
Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 255,309 Time to play the Game FREAK OP Owner
OP FREAK Owner Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 255,309 Time to play the Game	CALGARY (8 - 4) at TORONTO (2 - 9) - 9/20/2019, 7:00 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game. Head-to-Head Series History CALGARY is 4-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons CALGARY is 5-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons 4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons HAMILTON (9 - 3) at EDMONTON (6 - 6) - 9/20/2019, 9:30 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game. Head-to-Head Series History HAMILTON is 3-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons EDMONTON is 2-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons 3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons A post a day and your access will stay!

Re: 9/20 Statistical Advantages FREAK #448946 09/18/19 06:02 AM
Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 255,309 Time to play the Game FREAK OP Owner
OP FREAK Owner Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 255,309 Time to play the Game	UTAH (3 - 0) at USC (2 - 1) - 9/20/2019, 9:00 PM Top Trends for this game. UTAH is 123-90 ATS (+24.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992. UTAH is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. USC is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons. USC is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons. Head-to-Head Series History UTAH is 2-0 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons USC is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons 2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons FLA INTERNATIONAL (1 - 2) at LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 1) - 9/20/2019, 8:00 PM Top Trends for this game. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Head-to-Head Series History There were no past matchups in this series during this time period. AIR FORCE (2 - 0) at BOISE ST (3 - 0) - 9/20/2019, 9:00 PM Top Trends for this game. BOISE ST is 148-108 ATS (+29.2 Units) in all games since 1992. BOISE ST is 148-108 ATS (+29.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992. AIR FORCE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992. Head-to-Head Series History BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons 2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons A post a day and your access will stay!

Re: 9/20 Statistical Advantages FREAK #449198 09/20/19 05:19 PM
Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 255,309 Time to play the Game FREAK OP Owner
OP FREAK Owner Joined: Dec 2000 Posts: 255,309 Time to play the Game	8 p.m. ET: Florida International (1-2) at Louisiana Tech (2-1) Pros and Joes are will be sweating opposite sides of this Conference USA showdown. The public takes one look at the won-loss records and that's all they need to know. FIU is 1-2 while Louisiana Tech is 2-1. Plus the Bulldogs are favored (the "better" team) and enjoy home field advantage. Lay the points, right? Not so fast say the sharps. This line opened at Louisiana Tech -8.5. Some books even opened Tech closer to -10. Despite a majority of wagers backing the home favorite, we've seen the line tumble all the way down to -7. This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement on the road dog. Wiseguys with an edge got down hard on FIU, forcing bookmakers to drop the line in their favor in order to mitigate their liability and entice buyback on the home team. Sharps always get the best of the number, so they likely hit FIU between +10 and +8. FIU also has value as a contrarian road conference dog. Historically, conference dogs perform much better against the spread than non-conference dogs, as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and leads to tighter games. Sharps have taken a clear position on FIU for the side, but have largely laid off the total. It opened at 51.5 and hasn't budged since. 9 p.m. ET: Utah (3-0, ranked 10th overall) at USC (2-1) This late-night Pac-12 grudge match will be far and away the most heavily bet game of the night. It also happens to be the most lopsided in terms of the ticket splits, which provides excellent value for contrarian bettors. Utah enters with an undefeated record and impressive ranking. The Utes have also outscored their opponents by a whopping 96-29 margin through three games. Meanwhile, USC is unranked and just lost to BYU 30-27 as 4.5-point favorites (Utah crushed BYU 30-12 in Week 1). As a result, the recency biased public is high on Utah and down on USC. This line opened with Utah listed as a 4-point road favorite. Roughly three-out-of-four bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Utah. Normally when the tickets are so lopsided like this, books will adjust the line to Utah -5 or -6. However, we've seen this line go the other way and fall to 3.5. This is a dead giveaway that wiseguys are backing USC in a valuable buy-low, bounce-back spot as a home dog in a conference game. We've also seen some sharp action on the under. The total opened at 54 and has fallen to 52.5. We're looking at 8 MPH winds and historically unders have been a smarter bet than overs in conference games as the built in familiarity benefits the defense and leads to lower scoring games. 9 p.m. ET: Air Force (2-0) at Boise State (3-0, ranked 20th overall) Bettors are in for a treat with this under-the-radar Mountain West showdown between two undefeated teams. This game opened with Boise State listed as 9.5-point home favorites. Typically, the public will hammer Boise in this spot. After all, Boise is a ranked team against an unranked team and playing at home on their blue turf where they seem to be unbeatable. However, Air Force is also undefeated and just posted a thrilling 30-23 overtime victory on the road against Colorado. Also, the triple-option Air Force offense has given Boise problems in the past. As a result, the public is torn and doesn't know who to take. But sharps have taken a clear position. Despite spread tickets being split down the middle, the line has fallen from Boise -9.5 to -7. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the bets are even, aside from maybe a slight juice adjustment. The fact that the line moved multiple points toward Air Force indicates smart money from professional bettors backing the road dog Falcons in what they expect to be a close game.The total opened at 55. Roughly two-thirds of bets are on the over but the total hasn't moved, signaling a sharp line freeze on the under. The forecast calls for 13 MPH winds and cooler temperatures in the mid to high 60s. According to Bet Labs Sports, when the wind is blowing 8 MPH or more and the temperature is less than 70 degrees the under has cashed at a 55% clip winning +135.1 units since 2005. A post a day and your access will stay!

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