Houston at Milwaukee (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Astros have been playing a bit better in recent days (6-4, +$155
last 10 with 5.na
team that has enjoyed success here at Miller Park, particularly
against righties (26-17, +$560). The Brewers’ rotation is a cause of
concern however (4.97 team ERA, worst in the NL), so we’ll limit
ourselves to a pair of available hurlers who have put up decent numbers
in home games. BEST BET: Ohka & Bush vs. righthanders.
Texas at Detroit (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Rangers lost 3 out of 4 to the Tigers earlier (-$250) but they’ve
put up excellent numbers in road night games (+$1330) and the
first three games of this series will take place in the evening. But it’s
hard to find fault with the Tigers right now (76-41, +$2870 in 2006)
with a mound corp that is by far the best in the majors (3.66 team
ERA). They’ve struggled at the plate in recent days (only 3.3 runs
per game last 10), allowing their division foes to chip away that
their lead, so we’re inclined to wait and see before we commit ourselves
in this series. BEST BET: None.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (4) 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th
The Angels had been surging in the AL West, but they’ve allowed
the A’s to open up a bit of a lead, and it appears as though their
pitching staff could be in trouble. Colon is gone, Ervin Santana is
questionable after taking a line drive off his leg, and even reliable
John Lackey is struggling (8.71 ERA last two starts). The Mariners
are 7-5 vs. LA in head to head play (+$285) and it looks like ace
sophomore righthander Felix Hernandez is poised for a strong 2nd
half. The Angels are only 17-20 (-$890) vs. righthanders in home
games so far. BEST BET: F. Hernandez.
BEGINNING FRIDAY AUGUST 18
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Cubs have been one of the biggest money-burners in baseball
this year (-$1575) but somehow they’ve managed to put together a
10-3 record against the first place Cardinals (+$1085). Another problem
for St. Louis is their rather poor showing away from Busch
Stadium (29-32, -$730). And after a decent stretch, the Cardinals
have not fared well in recent days (4-7, -$515 last 10). So we can’t
use the visitor, but there’s no way we can trust the lackluster Cubs.
BEST BET: None.
Washington at Philadelphia (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Nationals have turned a tidy profit vs. the Phillies in head to
head play (+$425) and they’ve put together some nice numbers
against lefthanders in ‘06 (+$720). The NL wildcard winner is likely
to have a record close to .500, so the Phillies are very much alive in
that chase. But they’ve had a terrible season at Citizens Bank Park
(only 28-33, -$1485) and having unloaded key players at the trading
deadline, they appear more focused on putting something together
for next year. BEST BET: Nationals vs. lefthanders.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Reds are clinging to the wildcard lead right now, but their
pitching has been letting them down in recent days (5.66 ERA
among starters last 10 days) and they’ve had problems against
righthanders at Great American Ballpark. But they’ve proved they
can score runs against lefthanders (5.8 per game) and the Pittsburgh
rotation is loaded with southpaws. The Pirates are the worst road
team in the majors (14-45, -$2490) so we’ll stick with Cincinnati
when the setting is right. BEST BET: Reds vs. lefthanders.
Colorado at N.Y. Mets (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
We continue to be astonished by the success of the Colorado pitching
staff (4.09 ERA, 2nd lowest in the NL). The Mets are a formidable
opponent here at Shea Stadium, but they’ve got the best record
in the NL more or less in the bag, while Colorado is very much in
the fight for a playoff berth; both the NL West and the wildcard.
They’ll catch some nice underdog prices this weekend, so we’ll
jump on Jeff Francis (3.44 ERA) and Aaron Cook (3.87), the two
hurlers most likely to see action. BEST BET: Francis/Cook.
Atlanta at Florida (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
We can’t trust the Marlins against lefthanders (-$785 in that situation),
but they’ve cleaned up against righthanders this year (+$1050
so far), a stark contrast to the beleaguered Braves, who are only 41-
49 (-$1545) vs. righthanders in 2006. Florida has played very well
for the past three months and while they are probably not a viable
playoff contender, they seem far more likely than Atlanta to finish
the season on a high note. Young players with an eye on the future
are always more appealing than a group of underperforming veterans
not used to a losing season. BEST BET: Marlins in all games.
Arizona at San Diego (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
These teams enter the home stretch with almost identical records,
just behind first place LA in the topsy-turvy NL West. We’ll stick
with the D’backs for a number of reasons. In the first place, they’ve
dominated head to head play (5-1, +$520) and they’ve made money
on the road (+$880). The Padres, on the other hand, have been a
disaster at Petco Park (-$1210) and they’ve struggled at the pate in
recent days (only 3.9 runs per game last 10). This is a good chance
for the visitor to move ahead of the pack and stay within striking
distance of first place LA. BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Dodgers made up ground in the NL West in a hurry, moving
from last to first on the strength of a sizzling hot streak (10-1, +$910
last 10 days). The Giants have looked pitiful (54-63, -$1465), falling
off the pace within the division and into last place. LA is not a great
road team so caution is advised. But they do average 5.8 runs per
game on offense, and they’ve got top quality arms in Brad Penny
(3.48 ERA) and Derek Lowe (4.09) who can throttle the anemic SF
attack (Giants -$1110 vs. righties). BEST BET: Penny/Lowe.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (5) 18th (DH), 19th, 20th, 21st
Big showdown in Fenway that could determine the course of things
in the AL East for the rest of 2006. The Red Sox are very tough on
righthanders (+$1365) but they struggle against southpaws (only 19-
20, +$830), while the visiting Yankees are just the opposite (+$815
against lefties, -$945 vs. righties). We’ll play this series accordingly if
we get matchups that work for us. BEST BET: Red Sox when righty
meets righty/Yankees when lefty meets lefty.
Oakland at Kansas City (4) 18th (DH), 19th, 20th
The A’s are very hot right now (8-1, +$675 last 10 days) and with a
14-3 record in road day games vs. righthanders (+$1355 with 6.2
runs per game), we look forward to backing them in either of the
two scheduled day games if the matchup permits (Royals only 7-28,
-$1420 in day games). But KC is +$1535 vs. righties in night games
at Kaufman Stadium, and we could be looking at a nice price on the
home team in that situation. BEST BET: Athletics vs. righthanders in
day games/Royals vs. righthanders in night games.
Toronto at Baltimore (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Blue Jays have faded somewhat in the AL East, but there is still
time to mount a late season surge, and a big weekend at Camden
Yards would sure help. The Orioles handle righthanders well, but
they are a pathetic 12-29 vs. southpaws (-$1870 with 4.1 runs per
game) so jump on the visitor if they send one to the hill. BEST BET:
Lefthanders vs. the Orioles.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The Indians have been getting some decent pitching in recent days
(2.82 ERA among starters last 10) while the Devil Rays are struggling
at the plate (only 3.0 runs per game last 10). But Tampa Bay is a
profitable home team (+$895) and they’ve got one of the worst road
teams in the majors coming into Tropicana Field (Tribe -$1360 as a
visitor). Scott Kazmir is back from the DL but not slated to appear in
this series. Lots of factors to sort through in this series, we’ll check
back for a closer look on game gay. BEST BET: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Minnesota (3) 18th, 19th, 20th
The loss of Francisco Liriano may be more than an upstart team like
the Twins can overcome. But they’ve been incredible here at the
Metrodome (40-18, +$1950) and they’ve still got Johan Santana
available for this showdown. The lefty ace has led Minnesota to victories
in 20 of his 25 starts (+$1345, 3.24 ERA) and the White Sox
have been consistent losers against lefties (-$525 in 2006). We can’t
take a chance with righthanders vs. Chicago (Sox +$1500 in that
spot), so we’ll stick with a single play. BEST BET: J. Santana.
