Cincinnati at Philadelphia (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Reds were swept in their only series with the Phillies this season
(-$300) but right now they’ve got the best shot of taking the NL
wildcard, and they are excellent road team, particularly in night
games vs.na at Atlanta (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Braves have never failed to win the NL East since joining the
division, but it appears unlikely they’ll finish the 2006 season with a
.500 record, and if they don’t watch out they could even wind up in
the division cellar. Their record at Turner Field is appalling (only 22-
28, -$1435) so we’re not anxious to back them anytime soon. But
the Brewers, as usual. have been a big second half disappointment,
and their 20-36 road record (-$1205) is not encouraging. We’ll stay
on the sidelines while these two clubs slug it out. BEST BET: None.
San Diego at Houston (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Astros can’t score runs (only 4.5 per game in ‘06), not good
news when facing the Padres, who have enjoyed solid pitching this
year (4.19 team ERA, 3rd lowest in the NL). San Diego has been at
their best away from Petco Park, especially vs. righthanders (24-14,
+$1245) and they are in a dogfight with the rest of the NL West for
a division title. Houston is only 21-23 vs. righties at MinuteMaid Park
(-$1180) and they’ll be hard pressed to prevail against this determined
visitor. BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty.
Chicago Cubs at Colorado (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
First meeting of the year between these clubs and we continue to
be astonished by the Rockies’ turnaround. After year of big offenses
with zero pitching, they now have the 2nd lowest team ERA in the
NL (4.11). Unfortunately, they’ve scored the fewest runs in the
league so far, so the net effect of the improved pitching is somewhat
offset. But we love some of their starters vs. the hapless Cubs
(-$1435 overall), though it appears Francis & Jennings won’t appear
in this series. That leaves Aaron Cook (3.95 ERA in 23 starts) who
continues to impress despite some tough luck. BEST BET: Cook.
Florida at Arizona (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Marlins have a promising young pitching staff (5th lowest ERA
in the league) and have a real shot at 2nd place in the NL East, a significant
accomplishment for a team that appeared destined for an
ugly last place finish early on. So far in 2006 the Diamondbacks have
used 11 different starting pitchers, every one of them a righthander.
Florida has posted a nice profit vs. righties so far (+$850) and
Arizona’s 17-23 mark vs. righties at Chase Park is not encouraging
for the home team. Go with Josh Johnson (2.74 ERA in 17 starts),
who is likely to open the series on Friday. BEST BET: Jo. Johnson.
San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Dodgers go from hot to cold but right now they are very hot (9-
0, +$995 last 10 days with 7.2 runs per game and a 3.17 ERA among
starters). Despite some high prices they’ve done well here at Chavez
Ravine vs. righties so far (25-18, +$390) and they’re catching the
Giants in the midst of an horrendous tailspin (1-9, -$1030 with only
3.1 runs per game last 10 days). They’ll probably miss some of LA
better starters, but they’ll have to deal with ace Brad Penny (3.51)
who’s going off a strong outing at Cincinnati. BEST BET: Penny.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Orioles have only managed a single victory over the Red Sox
this year (1-8, -$690) and with one of the worst pitching staffs in the
majors (5.32 team ERA), we could be looking at a Fenway bloodbath.
But they do make money vs. righties away from Camden Yards
(+$830) and prices on Boston (35-17, +$1035 at home) could get
rather exhorbitant, so caution is advised. Our best strategy is taking
the home team’s lefthanders, given Baltimore’s pitiful 4-17 (-$1350)
road record vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Lester/D. Wells.
L.A. Angels at N.Y. Yankees (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Angels always give the Yankees trouble (2-1, +$160 earlier this
year . . . 6-4, +$420 in’05) and they average 5.4 runs per game on
the road), so we could catch a live underdog in this series. Don’t try
any lefties against the Bombers (Yanks +$830 at home vs. lefties),
but given NY’s losses at home vs. righthanders (-$825) we’ll go with
Ervin Santana (4.09) and Kelvim Escobar (3.77), both of whom are
coming off solid outings. BEST BET: E. Santana/Escobar.
Kansas City at Cleveland (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Indians have been an enormous disappointment in 2006 (only
47-62, -$2440), after challenging for a playoff spot last year and coming
into this season with such high expectations. They’d be an obvious
go against if their opponent was anyone other than the pathetic
royals, who check in with a sorrowful 15-40 (-$660) record outside
of Kaufman Stadium. stay away from this mess. BEST BET: None.
Detroit at Chicago W. Sox (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The White Sox fell off the pace in the AL Central after the All-Star
break when the Tigers got red hot and they didn’t. They are probably
chasing the wildcard at this point, but they have gotten the best
of the Tigers in head to head play (6-3, +$295) so there may be
some hope. But they’ll need a sweep here to get the ball rolling, and
this Detroit team is a stellar 39-19 (+$1950) outside of Comerica.
We’ll need to take a closer look at specific matchups, especially
with Justin Verlander’s status uncertain, and with Kenny Rogers
beginning to show his age. BEST BET: None.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Athletics are opening up a bit of daylight in the AL West thanks
to a recent hot streak (8-2, +$720 last 10 days with a 2.92 ERA
among starters). The Devil Rays never seem to quit, but they’ve not
done well on the road (only 18-39, -$1140 overall) and they lack the
pitching to compete effectively with Oakland (5.06 team ERA, 3rd
worst in the AL). We’re concerned that prices on this series could
be inflated, and it is possible that Tampa Bay could steal a victory,
even with Scott Kazmir on the DL. So only jump in on the home
team if the price is in line. BEST BET: Athletics at -160 or less.
