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Speed Rating measures how fast a horse ran while making adjustments to reflect the speed of a track on a given day.
Prime Power Rating measures the most recent races and consolidates handicapping factors (speed, class, pace, form, weight and distance) into one composite rating.

Speed Rating

115 The Cliff's Edge
114 Lion Heart
109 Smarty Jones
109 Quintons Gold Rush
108 Read The Footnotes
107 Limehouse
107 Pollard's Vision
105 Song of the Sword
104 Borrego
104 Imperialism
103 Wimbledon
103 Minister Eric
102 St Averil
102 Castledale
102 Pro Prado
101 Master David
100 Action This Day
99 Friends Lake
98 Tapit
97 Birdstone

Prime Power Rating

158.9 Lion Heart
155.8 Smarty Jones
152.8 The Cliff's Edge
152.7 Read The Footnotes
151.7 Limehouse
151.0 Pollard's Vision
149.5 Quintons Gold Rush
148.4 Tapit
148.0 Birdstone
148.0 Song of the Sword
147.3 Master David
147.1 Borrego
146.2 Wimbledon
144.9 St Averil
144.7 Minister Eric
144.4 Castledale
144.4 Imperialism
144.3 Action This Day
143.5 Friends Lake
143.5 Pro Prado

Derby Preview from churchill downs track picker


LION HEART is the way to go in Derby 130. He's being overlooked by the masses despite two incredible seconds in the San Rafael and the Blue Grass. He's faster than most here by the numbers and trainer Patrick Biancone got a nice dress rehearsal for this with Brancusi last year. Biancone is ultra confident in his charge and he's been laying low at Keeneland while the others have basked in the Derby hype. At projected odds around 12-1, he's a steal. SMARTY JONES is undefeated and basically untested coming into the Derby. Many will knock his pedigree but these are the same people who told you Distorted Humor (Funny Cide), Mr. Prospector (Fusaichi Pegasus) and Gulch (Thunder Gulch) were too speed oriented to get a Derby winner. With an extra $5 million dollar bonus from the foks in Arkansas on the line, this Pennsylvania bred seems to have two entire states rooting for him. MASTER DAVID seems to have the greatest right to improve of any of the Derby starters. His runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial was a solid race but he had to need it after two months away. Ace trainer Bobby Frankel should have him sitting on a peak effort here and his charge has the stalking style to work out a trip in the first flight without having to make the pace. He's very, very dangerous but Frankel's fans will hurt the price. POLLARD'S VISION is as game as they come. He, like his owner, is blind in one eye but it isn't holding either one of them back one bit. This colt will be overlooked by many but he came into his own in the Illinois Derby win and should fire another huge shot here. He has a tough post for a speed horse in the 17 hole but has the rider to overcome it in John Velazquez. TAPIT is very dangerous for legendary trainer Michael Dickinson. Like Master David, he should improve several lengths off his visually impressive Wood Memorial. THE CLIFF'S EDGE is a deserving favorite but you can't play them all. BORREGO has a great chance to run on late for second, third or fourth.

The 130th Kentucky Derby

1. Limehouse...Santos 30-1...Solid foundation at 2, though not spectacular. His limit would be just about enough to win this. Would have to improve off of Tampa and Keeneland efforts. Probably best suited for shorter--for now. Not out of the question where exotics are concerned. Usually breaks well, which will be important from the 1 hole. Probably will use too much energy early to be a factor late.

2. Song Of The Sword...Arroyo Jr. 30-1...No races at 2, which is a problem. Decent enough effort in the Illinois Derby and the Lexington, but that won't cut the mustard here. Paragallo gives bad karma anyway.

3. Lion Heart...Smith 10-1...Perfect post position for a horse that will want the lead. Probability of an off track enhances his chances of stealing it. He is quality speed. This ain't no Old Trieste. 10 furlongs is a question, but there are precious few who can catch him loose on the lead. Ran fast as a 2 year-old, and has run fast this year. Catch him if you can!

4. Action This Day...Flores 30-1...As usual, the Juvy champ has not lived up to early expectations. What is it about that race anyway? You won't find a more capable handler than Mandella. Rounded back nicely to his Juvy number in the Bluegrass, but the rest have already gone by and that only got him 13 lengths behind Cliffy. BIG improvement needed here, and I don't know if ANY horse could improve that much in 3 weeks.

5. Wimbledon...Bailey 15-1...Have to believe the Louisiana Derby knocked him out for awhile. Congrats to connections who outbid all for Jerry's services. Unfortunately, Jerry isn't strong enough to carry him that last 1/8 mile. And that's what it will take for him to get a piece.

6. Friends Lake...Migliore 15-1...Here we go again! I have a tendency for ignoring the Florida Derby winner every year, and that has come back to bite me a few times over the last 10 runnings. This time, I have extra incentive as he skipped the April preps. Probably knocked out by that quicksand at Gulfstream. But the other contestants have come back to run spectacularly in their April preps as evidenced by wins for Clffy and Tapit in their next start. Could they now be due for a bounce and this guy take his turn? Can a New York bred win twice in a row? Don't be surprised if he's wearing the Kroger Roses when all is said and done.

7. Minister Eric...Day 30-1...I loved this guy in the Breeders' Cup. If I had been smart enough, I would have boxed him with Mandella's other and had a nice exacta score. Good solid 2 year-old season. Has progressed nicely this year, but avoiding major competition. Now is the time for a real test.

8. Master David...Solis 12-1...Really jumped up when Frankel switched him to dirt in his final 2 year-old race, but has yet to equal that effort at 3. Not a good sign. Might be a player down the road, but a little soon for this crowd.

9. St. Averil...T. Baze 30-1...Really showed a lot of promise before Santa Anita Derby where he disappointed as the 2-1 fav. That race was too bad to be ignored however and it appears that the San Felipe and Santa Catalina could really set him back for awhile.

10. Imperialism...Desormeaux 15-1...11 races at 2 tends to put a pretty good base on a colt. Was bothered in the Santa Anita Derby or else he might have challenged the winner. He may not care for 10 panels, but he should make his presence felt with his experience and tactical speed. A true exotics candidiate.

11. The Cliff's Edge...Sellers 4-1...Loved him in the Florida Derby, nailed him in the exacta in the Bluegrass. But was that race too much for him 3 weeks out? It's the strongest prep of the year and if he bounces, while toting that come from behind style, it could leave him completely out. However, he has strong efforts over this surface including a nice work on the 19th. A pair-up wins, a bounce loses. Bottom-line.

12. Borrego...Espinoza 20-1...Liked the way he came at Smarty at the end of the Arky Derby. Good foundation, but not overly fast at 2. Has run two beauties in a row and may be ready to move forward here. A move forward puts him in exotics. Winning not out of the question. Connections are experienced, and dam-sire won this in 1991. Likely to be a huge price and coming at the end. I like it! Can he get to Lion Heart?

13. Birdstone...Prado 50-1...Hard to believe the ML of 50-1 when just 2 months ago he was considered the top choice, or at least one of the top 2. Have to forgive the effort on the quirky Turfway surface in the Lane's End. And though he may not win here, he might have a say in the exotics. If he runs well, and Nick so decides, look out for him in Baltimore!

14. Read The Footnotes...Albarado 12-1...Ran fastest of all as a 2 year-old--maybe too fast. Easy to understand his disdain for the Florida Derby surface after he put in that monster effort in the Fountain 4 weeks earlier. Now he's skipped the April preps as a result and should be well-rested. Don't know if a Smoke Glacken can win this, but exotics certainly possible.

15. Smarty Jones...Elliott 9-2...Hard to knock. Hasn't done anything wrong and a lot of people will be happy if he can score here. Showed signs of backing up in last, and if the last few efforts have taken their toll, the place where it will show is in a 20 horse field going further than he should in front of 140,000. Not where you want a potential favorite to try and pull the ultimate.

16. Castledale...Valdivia 15-1...Not thrilled about the Santa Anita Derby, though I'm sure connections are. Difficult to explain his performance as there was nothing to suggest what was coming. Looks like a bounce candidate from here. I'll toss him.

17. Pollard's Vision...Velasquez 20-1...Good foundation at 2, though not overly fast. Best effort came in the slop at Saratoga. With track conditions expected to be off he might be worth a look in exotics. Distance may be a question so a win would be difficult to envision.

18. Tapit...Dominguez 8-1...Looks like he may be the best of this group once he figures out what the game is all about. Goofed around in the Wood and still made it look rather easy. If his head is on straight, he'll be mighty tough here. Since he comes from out of it I'm not too worried about the post position. Shallow foundation at 2 but he won both, including the Laurel Futurity off of his maiden win. Distance won't be a problem. Mud won't be a problem. Trainer will bring him in prepared. 8-1 would be a gift of rare proportions.

19. Pro Prado...McKee 30-1...Not especially fast at 2, but has now run three tough races in a row. Regression city, especially in a field like this. He won't mind the mud, but it's likely he's going to regress out of the money.

20. Quinton's Gold Rush...Nakatani 20-1...One race at 2, and he just ran a career best 2 weeks ago. Not enough bottom to support that so expect a bounce here. Awful post won't help, and he loses Bailey. Nope.




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Tapit is going to prove himself a man among boys here. He looked like he could have gone around again in the Wood. You know Dickinson will have him ready.

The Cliffs Edge looked like a million when he cruised past Lion Heart in the BlueGrass. The only question: How much did that race take out of him? He could regress a bit and still be right there.

Lion Heart will take the field as far as he can, and moves up on a sloppy surface. Could hold on for the win, but I'm thinking he'll be passed buy one or both of the above.

Friends Lake hasn't run since the Florida Derby, but he's been training on that deep Payson surface. The same surface that set him up for the win in the Florida Derby that has turned out to be a key race. Do Tapit and Cliffy bounce while this guy takes his turn? Could be.

Borrego looks ready for a top effort which should get him a piece.

Imperialism looks best of the west-coasters and could end up in exotics.





1. Tapit

2. The Cliffs Edge

3. Lion Heart

4. Friends Lake

5. Borrego

6. Imperialism


Best of luck everyone!

The Cliff's Edge - He is a dual qualifier, although he lacks stamina points in his dosage profile, is trained by a successful Derby trainer, and is ridden by a jockey with Derby experience. He has not paired Beyer tops, meaning he is less susceptible to bounce at Churchill, but has a respectable 111 best Beyer in a route race, two wins at Churchill Downs, and the correct running style. Unfortunately he stands a good chance of being the favorite which is generally a jinx, but still has a good shot.

Borrego - It was a bit surprising to see this guy come up second, but he does have an experienced trainer and jockey, has run the right number and type of preps, has a top Beyer of 105, and finished second in three major preps. His dosage is in the proper range and his has stamina points in his profile. He has the right running style and has been working well at Churchill Downs. He could be a sleeper pick this year.

Pollard's Vision - I don't know if a one-eyed horse has ever won the Derby, but this one has a chance. He has one of the top Beyers of the contenders at 107, an experienced trainer and jockey, and a win at 1 1/8 miles. His last win was on the front, but he has shown he can stalk or rally in the past which is the preferred running style for a Derby winner. He definitely has a shot.

Limehouse - He may be a bit over-raced coming in with 9 starts lifetime, but he did win two major preps and is undefeated in two starts at Churchill Downs. He has an experienced trainer and jockey, the right running style, and a 1 1/8 mile prep. Where he falls short is no stamina points in his dosage profile and a top Beyer figure of only 100.

Smarty Jones - At first glance he seems to have everything going for him, coming into the Derby undefeated with a 108 top Beyer and bullet works at Churchill, but he also has some negatives. The biggest are having a Derby rookie trainer and jockey and a front running style. He has a lot of sprinters in his pedigree but still meets the dosage limit and even has some stamina points in his dosage profile. If The Cliff's Edge isn't the favorite, this guy probably will be which can be the kiss of death.

Master David - While he does have 3 races this year, the 2 month gap between the Sham and the Wood may make him come up a bit short still plus has only gotten a 100 top Beyer. He does have an experience trainer and jockey and stamina points in his dosage profile plus a good try in his last prep at 1 1/8 miles.

Lion Heart - This guy has shown a lot of talent with a top Beyer of 110, but he only has 2 starts this year and didn't race until March 6 so is probably a bit under-raced. His running style is pure speed and he will probably set the pace from the start which isn't a good thing. He does have an experienced trainer and jockey and while staying at Keeneland has shipped over for a work at Churchill.

Friends Lake - The biggest problems with this horse are he only has a top Beyer of 99 and hasn't raced since winning the Florida Derby. He has an experienced jockey and trainer plus the right running style, but can he be prepared for the Derby off just works for almost 2 months?

Imperialism - His biggest problems are being over-raced with 15 lifetime starts and having not only a rookie Derby trainer but a 21-year-old female trainer. He will also have a new jockey for the Derby, although it will be Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux.

He just misses the 105 Beyer par with a 104 but runs a great closing race which is the right style. This horse has been my favorite since he won the San Vicente and I still plan to put some money on him despite everything.
Read the Footnotes - Can a New York bred win two years in a row? Not only that, he has not raced since the Florida Derby where he finished 4th as the favorite. He has a top Beyer of 113, highest of all the contenders, is a dual qualifier with stamina points in his dosage profile. He may have been over-raced at two with 5 starts but only has 2 starts this year and he hasn't been training at Churchill until this week. He has a Derby rookie trainer but an experienced jockey.

Tapit - This horse is a bit of an inigma which is no surprise considering he is trained by Michael Dickinson. He has only worked at Tapeta Farm and won't ship to Churchill until Wednesday. He does have the proper dosage and stamina points in his dosage profile but his top Beyer is a weak 98 in the Wood. He only has 2 starts this year and will have a first time Derby jockey. He could be a monster with hidden form, or he could be a wise-guy horse, it's just hard to tell.

Birdstone - He was one of the favorites for the Derby at the beginning of the year, but will definitely be a longshot on Saturday. Only 2 races this year, an allowance win and a miserable 5th in the Lane's End. He hasn't raced since, scratching from the Blue Grass because of an elevated white cell count. He is a dual qualifier with stamina points in his dosage profile, is trained by a Derby winning trainer but will have a new jockey for the Derby. He doesn't have a 1 1/8 mile prep and his best Beyer is only a 99, earned in a sprint last year. I think he will need a miracle to win.

Castledale - Big upset winner of the Santa Anita Derby will likely be a big longshot in Kentucky. He only has a 103 Beyer and has only started twice this year. He does have dosage in the proper range, but no stamina points. He has a Derby rookie trainer and jockey plus he was over-raced last year with 8 starts, mostly in England.

Rock Hard Ten - This horse is very popular, but with only $90,000 in graded earnings he will be lucky to make the field. If he was ranked with the others, he would come in next to Lion Heart. He was unraced last year and has a Derby rookie trainer. He will probably have a new jockey if he gets in the Derby unless Stevens flies over for the race. He does have a bullet work at Churchill and a top Beyer of 103, but are his 3 starts this year enough seasoning for him to handle the Derby crowd and noise?

All of this analysis is strictly aimed at statistically identifying a potential Kentucky Derby winner. It has no bearing on whether the horse can finish second or third. Although the statistics used are historical facts, anti-profile horses can and do win the Derby as we saw with War Emblem in 2002. He was coming off a huge Beyer top (but didn't bounce) and won on the front end, by far the worst style to use in this race.

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby
Updated: 4/15/04

While the Kentucky Derby is a tremdous pageant and spectacle to watch, it is an absolute bear to handicap.na or Bob Baffert enter more than one horse, beware the one they doesn't hype. Thunder Gulch and Charismatic are perfect examples of this.

The Derby has a huge field, up to 20 horses, so traffic is a big problem. Remember that anything can happen with all the bumping that will go on.
Find the horse who fits the most of these criteria and you might just find the Kentucky Derby winner.