Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks KY Derby Info

Let's make this the thread for news and info on the derby.


Unbeaten SMARTY JONES (Elusive Quality), who earned his ticket to the Kentucky Derby (G1) with a win in the Arkansas Derby (G2) two weeks ago, worked five furlongs in a bullet :58 Saturday on Churchill Downs' main track, which officially was classified as good. The colt was timed in fractions of :22 4/5, and :34 1/5 before galloping out three-quarters in 1:11 1/5.

"I am tickled to death," trainer John Servis said. "It went very, very good. I got to watch him down the backside and into the turn. I had the binoculars and caught him in spots in between the tents. He looked good. I think he likes the track."

Smarty Jones, a Pennsylvania-bred, also took top honors in the Rebel S., Southwest S., Count Fleet S. and Pennsylvania Nursery S. in addition to his maiden win last November.

Champagne S. (G1) hero BIRDSTONE (Grindstone), last seen running fifth at 3-5 in the Lane's End S. (G2) at Turfway Park, logged the same distance in :58 2/5, the second fastest of 34 on the day. The colt seeks to give trainer Nick Zito his third Derby triumph but will have to accomplish the task off a six-week rest. Birdstone, a half-brother to 2003 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Bird Town, missed the Blue Grass S. (G1) because of a high white blood cell count.


"He went very well," Zito said of Birdstone's work. "Good horses work this way. It was a great work and I think gives him a decent shot next Saturday. He's a talented horse and I'm happy with the way he went this morning."


Birdstone will try to give his dam a Derby winner after his half-sister Birdtown won last year's Oaks Derby contenders were busy on the West Coast as well. Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner CASTLEDALE adding that a final decision will be made Sunday on the Kentucky Derby for Castledale.

ST AVERIL (Saint Ballado), the Santa Catalina S. (G2) winner but beaten in the San Felipe S. (G2) and Santa Anita Derby since, went three-quarters in 1:11 4/5. Trainer Rafael Becerra said a decision on the Derby would be made later in the day.

For the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on Friday, Grade 1 winner ASHADO (Saint Ballado) completed five furlongs in :59 at Churchill. The filly most recently ran second in Keeneland's Ashland S. (G1).

"It (the work) was a little faster than we normally go with our horses," trainer Todd Pletcher said, "but this track was faster than normal this morning after the break."

Las Virgenes S. (G1) winner A. P. ADVENTURE (A.P. Indy) went five in 1:00 4/5.

VICTORY U. S. A. (Victory Gallop), an impressive winner of the recent Beaumont S. (G2) at Keeneland, covered five panels in 1:00 2/5.


Grade 1 winner HOLLYWOOD STORY (Wild Rush) logged six furlongs in 1:13 4/5 on a fast surface at Hollywood Park. She ships to Churchill on Monday.(Ire) (Peintre Celebre) recorded six furlongs in 1:12 under jockey Jose Valdivia Jr. The Santa Anita Derby marked the colt's first win on the dirt.
"He went really good," said trainer Jeff Mullins,

Lane's End S. (G2) winner SINISTER G (Matty G) was taken out of consideration for next Saturday's Kentucky Derby (G1) because of a cough, trainer John Toscano said.

"We're out," Toscano said Saturday. "Sometimes Mother Nature takes over and if the horse is not right, to put him in the Derby would be foolish."

Toscano planned to work the colt Saturday, but Sinister G continued to battle a cough.

"He has just been very lackluster in the barn and at the track," the said summarized.

In related news, Mercedes Stables & Madeleine Paulson's ROCK HARD TEN (Kris S.) was scratched from Saturday's Derby Trial S. (G3) in hopes of making the Kentucky Derby (G1) field. Trainer Jason Orman notified Churchill Downs' officials on Saturday morning that the dark bay colt, who was the 3-5 morning-line favorite for the one-mile event, would not run.

Rock Hard Ten was 24th on the graded earnings list on Friday but moved to 23rd with the defection of Sinister G.

SLIMEBALL MOVE .........

Paragallo's bluff snags 'Rock'
By JAY PRIVMAN

Horsephotos
Bill Foster, stable foreman for trainer John Servis, walks Smarty Jones at Churchill Downs on Saturday following his five-furlong workout.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Ernie Paragallo bluffed. Rock Hard Ten folded, at least temporarily. Sinister G folded, for good. St Averil called. And Smarty Jones raised the stakes. Seven days out from the 130th Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs on Saturday became the newest site of the World Poker Tour.
On a day filled with intrigue and subterfuge, Song of the Sword secured a spot in the Derby field when Sinister G officially was dropped from consideration. But Paragallo, the owner of Song of the Sword, might have cost Rock Hard Ten a spot in the race with his cunning.

On Friday, Paragallo said he was strongly considering bypassing the Derby with Song of the Sword. That, along with the shaky status of a number of other Derby contenders, caused the connections of Rock Hard Ten to scratch their colt from Saturday's Derby Trial in the belief they had a shot to make the Derby without additional earnings.

That plan might backfire.

Paragallo on Saturday said he was bluffing, with the hope Rock Hard Ten would scratch out of the Derby Trial. Had he won the Derby Trial, Rock Hard Ten would have surpassed Song of the Sword on the graded-earnings list. If more than 20 horses are entered on Wednesday in the Derby, the field is determined by earnings in graded-stakes races.

"We're back in," Paragallo said Saturday from Keeneland. "I was only out to keep him" - referring to Rock Hard Ten - "out of today's race. If he would have run today and won, he would have knocked me out."

Not necessarily. Value Plus is not expected to run in the Derby. If he does indeed come out, Song of the Sword would be 19th on the list, with Pro Prado 20th. Eddington and Rock Hard Ten would be bumped. If Rock Hard Ten had won the Derby Trial, and its first-prize money, he would have vaulted to 19th, but Song of the Sword would still have been 20th. In that case, Pro Prado and Eddington would have been bumped.

Jason Orman, the trainer of Rock Hard Ten, decided to scratch his colt from the Derby Trial after consulting with co-owners Ernie Moody and Madeleine Paulson. All of them preferred to bypass the Derby Trial if they were assured of a spot in the Derby, since they believe Rock Hard Ten would be best served by not running back in one week. But they decided to scratch before learning of Paragallo's bluff. Rock Hard Ten still might get in, but the prospects are dicey.

"We decided to scratch because it looked like he had a better chance to get in the Derby," Orman said. "We'll wait and see what happens. We think going straight into the Kentucky Derby gives him his best chance to run well in the Derby. We're trying to do what's best for the horse."

Rock Hard Ten had an eye-catching gallop on Saturday and is scheduled to work on Monday.

Rock Hard Ten, as well as Eddington, did move one spot closer to getting into the Derby when Sinister G was removed from consideration. His trainer, John Toscano Jr., said Sinister G suffered a relapse of the lung infection that was discovered following the Wood Memorial on April 10. Sinister G was put on antibiotics after that race, was taken off them, then was put back on antibiotics on Thursday.

"The horse is not 100 percent, and it would be insanity to run," Toscano said. "It would knock him out for the next six months."

St Averil, whose status for the Derby also was uncertain, apparently earned himself a spot in the race with a work at Santa Anita on Saturday that satisfied trainer Rafael Becerra.

"If he scopes clean and everything looks okay, it's a go," Becerra said, after St Averil worked six furlongs in 1:11.80 with jockey Tyler Baze. "I need to confer with the boss," Becerra said, referring to owner Stan Fulton. Advertisement


St Averil has been troubled by sore feet and had been training in egg bar shoes on his front legs. "When you work that good in egg bars, that's pretty good," said Becerra, who said

St Averil would wear conventional shoes in the Derby.

Also at Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby winner Castledale worked six furlongs in 1:12 with jockey Jose Valdivia Jr.

"I was looking for exactly what happened," said Jeff Mullins, who trains Castledale. "He did it pretty well on his own."

Castledale and St Averil are scheduled to travel together from California to Kentucky on Monday.

Here at Churchill Downs, Smarty Jones turned in the most impressive drill of recent days. The unbeaten winner of the Arkansas Derby ran fast but did it without any urging, covering five furlongs in 58 seconds on a track officially rated good; Daily Racing Form timed him in 58.29. Jockey Willie Martinez, who usually works Smarty Jones, was aboard. Stewart Elliott has the mount on Derby Day.

"I'm tickled to death," said John Servis, who trains Smarty Jones. "He settled nice, when a horse dropped over on him at the three-eighths he took a hold, and when Willie gave him his head he shot right through."

Smarty Jones has some blemishes on his left shoulder from a skin disease, but Servis said it is dissipating after flaring in Arkansas. "It's done now," Servis said.

Also working was Birdstone, last year's Champagne Stakes winner, who has had a tumultuous spring. He has not raced since a poor try in last month's Lane's End Stakes, and was forced to scratch from the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 10. He also worked quickly - five furlongs in 58.40 seconds under exercise rider Maxine Correa - but did not do it as effortlessly as Smarty Jones.

FRIENDS LAKE (A.P. Indy), who is unraced since winning the Florida Derby (G1) in mid-March and is being trained up to Saturday's Kentucky Derby (G1) on works alone, had his first move on the Churchill Downs surface Sunday, breezing five furlongs in 1:03 at 6:45 a.m. on a sloppy main track. The John Kimmel-trained colt was clocked in splits of :13, :26 and :39 en route and galloped out six furlongs in 1:17.

Like much of the country, Kentucky has been pelted by rainfall over the last few days.

"He worked in driving rain," Kimmel said. "But he looked good and he finished good. It was hard to see the last eighth, but I caught him in under 12."

The New York-bred colt, who is out of multiple Grade 1 winner Antespend, a daughter of 1985 Derby winner Spend a Buck, has been training at Payson Park since his Florida Derby victory.


Arkansas Derby (G2) runner-up BORREGO (El Prado [Ire]), in blinkers and a shadow roll, worked after the 8 a.m. renovation break, clocking five-eighths in 1:03 3/5 before galloping out three-quarters in 1:19 3/5. The Beau Greely charge recorded splits of :13, :25 4/5, :38 and :51 1/5 on the way.

"I liked what I saw," said Greely, who also is a part owner and breeder of the horse. "It was a good work for him; just what we wanted."

Hutcheson S. (G2) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner LIMEHOUSE (Grand Slam) worked five furlongs in 1:01 in company with stablemate Speightstown (Gone West) prior to 6 in the morning. Speightstown, who is scheduled to compete in the same day's Churchill Downs H. (G2), was given the same clocking.

Illinois Derby (G2) hero POLLARD'S VISION (Carson City), like Limehouse trained by Todd Pletcher, was sent out a short time later and earned five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in company with workmate Cherry Bomb (Honor Grades). Pollard's Vision, who is blind in his right eye and was working on the inside, drew clear in the last sixteenth. Cherry Bomb was given a time of 1:01 1/5.

Pletcher added that VALUE PLUS (Unbridled's Song) was "highly unlikely" to compete in the Run for the Roses unless a speed horse or two defects. Either way, the colt worked four furlongs in :49 3/5 at Belmont on Sunday on a fast main surface.

WIMBLEDON (Wild Rush), winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) but fifth last out in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), covered a bullet five furlongs in :59 2/5. The Bob Baffert trainee, who broke off a length or two behind maiden winner Determined (Real Quiet), got splits of :12 2/5, :36 4/5 and :48 2/5 before galloping three-quarters out in 1:12 1/5.

Jerry Bailey is scheduled to ride Wimbledon but has committed to EDDINGTON (Unbridled) if the horse draws into the 1 1/4-mile classic. Eddington logged five panels in 1:00 Belmont Park on Sunday. Trainer Mark Hennig said the colt will ship to Louisville on Wednesday if he makes the field. ST AVERIL (Saint Ballado), already inside the top 20 on the graded earnings list, will run.

Four definite starters, and one horse who is still on the outside looking in, each put in their final major works for the Kentucky Derby (G1) on a fast track at Churchill Downs on Monday.

And far away from the commotion in Louisville, trainer Michael Dickinson reported that Wood Memorial (G1) winner TAPIT (Pulpit) breezed five furlongs over the all-weather track at his farm in Maryland on Monday with jockey Ramon Dominguez aboard.

"He broke off four lengths behind three workmates, and he finished one length ahead of them, on the bridle," Dickinson said. "It was just an easy maintenance breeze. He'll be on the plane to Kentucky on Wednesday."

Dickinson did not mention a time for the work.

Blue Grass S. (G1) winner THE CLIFF'S EDGE (Gulch), who could be installed as the morning-line favorite for the Run for the Roses, breezed five furlongs in 1:01 under sunny skies at Churchill Downs.

The Cliff's Edge was following his workmate when the duo came up on two other horses that were working at the top of the stretch. Exercise rider Maxine Correa angled The Cliff's Edge to the outside, and the dark bay ran by all three horses near the eighth pole.

"It was an unusual work, as you can imagine," trainer Nick Zito said. "But as it turned out, it worked out great.

"All week I told Maxine that this work I just wanted him to come home as good as he could, just get me the last eighth. As it turned out, we had a workhorse with him that I am going to run on Derby Day, Mahzouz (Charismatic), and I thought everything was going to be OK and here came two horses of Dallas Stewart's. You can't plan those things, but my two riders did a great job, especially Maxine. She just sat back there and waited and just came with the last eighth. I got his last half in :47 2/5 and his gallop out was as strong as could be. He galloped out almost the way he breezed. I just know what I saw and I know what I've got. He went the last eighth in 11."

Grade 1 winner LION HEART (Tale of the Cat), who finished a close second in the Blue Grass, shipped over from his base at Keeneland for his first workout over the Churchill Downs track. The chestnut colt, who will be making only his third start of the season and sixth overall in the Derby, schooled in the paddock during the mid-morning track renovation break and then breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5.


"I just wanted to let him see the track and the paddock," trainer Patrick Biancone said. "He moved well on it. I'm trying to keep him away from the pressures of this track and just trying to be safe."

Lion Heart was timed in fractions of :11 4/5, :23 4/5 and :35 4/5 before galloping out five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.

"When he works, you know he can do :45, so this was nice and easy for him," Biancone said. "He is a lamb when he works and a lion when the gate opens. He just loves to gallop...you cannot gallop him enough."

Lion Heart was scheduled to return to Keeneland later in the morning and possibly ship to Churchill Downs on Derby Day.

"I'll see how he handled the trip today and then determine when he'll come back," Biancone said.

Fountain of Youth S. (G2) winner READ THE FOOTNOTES (Smoke Glacken), who has not started since finishing fourth in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 13, breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5 under a snug hold from regular exercise rider Morna McDowall. The Richard Violette trainee galloped out five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
"It was his normal effortless breeze," Violette said. "He just went along smoothly and then accelerated when she whispered in his ear. It was just what he needed. He had a tour of the course, he changed leads well, and he had good acceleration to the wire. He's done plenty and it was just perfect."

Violette said he caught the move in :48 1/5, but it was the last furlong he was most happy with.


"He went the last eighth in 11 and change, which is what we were looking for," Violette said.

Robby Albarado will be aboard Read the Footnotes for the first time in the Derby.

QUINTONS GOLD RUSH (Wild Rush), who rolled to a 2 3/4-length victory in the Lexington S. (G2) at Keeneland in his first start for trainer Steve Asmussen, came out on the track prior to sunrise and breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.

The chestnut colt was timed in fractions of :13 1/5, :38 and :49 3/5 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 under assistant trainer Scott Blasi.

"The track was in excellent shape and he got over it very well," Asmussen said. "This is a talented horse and he's doing exceptionally well physically.

"He has a tendency to get wound up, but I want him to be relaxed and comfortable and off the bridle early Saturday. He was perfect this morning, but it will be an entirely different scenario in the Derby with the crowd and all."

Asmussen, who took over training Quintons Gold Rush 11 days prior to the Lexington, continues to express his gratitude to the colt's former conditioner, Mike Mitchell, for his assistance.

"The help that Mike has given has been above and beyond," Asmussen said. "Everything from the horse's diet to equipment and how to gallop him. We've stayed in constant contact and we wouldn't be where we are now without Mike's help."
Quintons Gold Rush schooled in the paddock on Saturday and will do so again this week.

"We've got some work to do in that area," Asmussen said.

ROCK HARD TEN (Kris S.), who would need two defections in order to join the field for the Derby, drilled five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5, by far the fastest of 25 works at the distance.

The Jason Orman trainee, who arrived at Churchill Downs on April 9, was timed in fractions in :12, :24 1/5, :36 3/5 and :48 1/5 before galloping out three-quarters in 1:13 1/5 under jockey Craig Perret, who won the 1990 Kentucky Derby aboard Unbridled.

"He worked really good," Orman said. "Craig said he never moved his hands and he did it very easy."

Rock Hard Ten, who was disqualified and placed third in the April 3 Santa Anita Derby (G1), will likely point toward the May 15 Preakness S. (G1) if he does not make the Derby field.

Eddington, Rock Hard Ten excluded from final Derby field of 20

An overflow group of 22 three-year-old colts were entered on Wednesday morning for Saturday’s $1-million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, but Eddington and Rock Hard Ten were excluded from the final field.
A maximum of 20 runners, determined by graded stakes earnings, are allowed to compete in the Derby. Eddington and Rock Hard Ten, coming off third-place finishes in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and Santa Anita Derby, respectively, were considered strong possible contenders but were 21st and 22nd on the list.

Trainer Todd Pletcher could have entered as many as four runners, including the filly Ashado, but he only entered Illinois Derby (G2) winner Pollard’s Vision and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Limehouse. Pletcher is one of two trainers with two entries, as Richard Mandella entered last year’s champion juvenile colt Action This Day and Minister Eric, the one-two finishers, respectively, in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

After taking entries, officials in Churchill Downs’s racing office conducted the traditional pill pull to determine the order in which the colts’ connections will select their post positions during the televised draw late Wednesday afternoon. Mandella drew especially well, as he will select first with Minister Eric and sixth with Action This Day.

"Post positions are not that big of a deal," Mandella said. "You’ve got to have luck. I’d take a bad post and good luck anytime."

The Derby’s 20 entrants, in the order they will draw post positions, are: Minister Eric, Master David, Friends Lake, Imperialism, St Averil, Action This Day, Wimbledon, The Cliff’s Edge, Pollard’s Vision, Borrego, Smarty Jones, Read the Footnotes, Birdstone, Lion Heart, Castledale (Ire), Tapit, Pro Prado, Song of the Sword, Limehouse, and Quintons Gold Rush.—Tom Law

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY ODDS
1 LIMEHOUSE Todd Pletcher Jose Santos 30-1
2 SONG OF THE SWORD Jennifer Pedersen Norberto Arroyo Jr. 30-1
3 LION HEART Patrick Biancone Mike Smith 10-1
4 ACTION THIS DAY Richard Mandella David Flores 30-1
5 WIMBLEDON Bob Baffert Jerry Bailey 15-1
6 FRIENDS LAKE John Kimmel Richard Migliore 15-1
7 MINISTER ERIC Richard Mandella Pat Day 30-1
8 MASTER DAVID Bobby Frankel Alex Solis 12-1
9 ST AVERIL Rafael Becerra Tyler Baze 30-1
10 IMPERIALISM Kristin Mulhall Kent Desormeaux 15-1
11 THE CLIFF'S EDGE Nick Zito Shane Sellers 4-1
12 BORREGO Beau Greely Victor Espinoza 20-1
13 BIRDSTONE Nick Zito Edgar Prado 50-1
14 READ THE FOOTNOTES Richard Violette Jr. Robby Albarado 12-1
15 SMARTY JONES John Servis Stewart Elliott 9-2
16 CASTLEDALE (Ire) Jeff Mullins Jose Valdivia Jr. 15-1
17 POLLARD'S VISION Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 20-1
18 TAPIT Michael Dickinson Ramon Dominguez 8-1
19 PRO PRADO Bob Holthus John McKee 30-1
20 QUINTONS GOLD RUSH Steve Asmussen Corey Nakatani 20-1

Blue Grass S. (G1) winner THE CLIFF'S EDGE (Gulch), who will attempt to give trainer Nick Zito his third Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, has been installed as the 4-1 favorite on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia's morning line for Saturday's Run for the Roses. The dark bay colt was a two-time stakes winner last November under the Twin Spires. Shane Sellers, who has ridden The Cliff's Edge in all eight career starts, has the call from post 11.

Undefeated SMARTY JONES (Elusive Quality), who will receive a $5 million bonus from Oaklawn Park's president for winning the Kentucky Derby, is the 9-2 second choice. Trained and ridden by Derby newcomers John Servis and Stewart Elliott, Smarty Jones breaks from post 15, the first stall in the auxiliary starting gate. TAPIT (Pulpit), who at 8-1 is the only other entrant not listed at double-digit odds, is closer to the grandstand rail in post 18. The gray colt represents the first Kentucky Derby starter for both trainer Michael Dickinson and jockey Ramon Dominguez.

The first selection in the post position draft went to MINISTER ERIC (Old Trieste), who will start from post 7 with Pat Day for trainer Richard Mandella. QUINTONS GOLD RUSH (Wild Rush) owned the last pick and is stuck on the far outside.


Grade 1 winner and possible pacesetter LION HEART (Tale of the Cat) is nicely drawn in post 3 with Mike Smith. The Blue Grass runner-up is the fourth pick on the morning line at 10-1. MASTER DAVID (Grand Slam), who will attempt to give five-time Eclipse winner Bobby Frankel his first Kentucky Derby title, is the co-fifth choice at 12-1 with Fountain of Youth S. (G2) hero READ THE FOOTNOTES (Smoke Glacken).

IMPERIALISM (Langfuhr), winner of the San Vicente S. (G2) and San Rafael S. (G2) before being placed second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), blew out a quarter-mile in :24 4/5 and galloped out three furlongs in :38 on Wednesday in his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. As usual, 21-year-old trainer Kristin Mulhall was astride.
"It went really good," Mulhall said. "I let him do whatever he wanted. I heard somebody saying it looked like he wasn't getting hold of the track, but he felt great over it. He feels real comfortable on it and when I galloped him in the slop the other day (Sunday), he loved that. I'm kind of hoping it rains (on Saturday)."

Unlike his six-furlong work in 1:17 2/5 in the slop last Thursday, Imperialism did not hook up with any unexpected company on Wednesday.

"When we were loping around there trying to get ready to let him loose, he was on his right lead," Mulhall said. "I was trying to get him to his left lead and went out wide and angled him down to the rail so he would change leads."

The BRIS Speed Ratings of previous Kentucky Derby (G1) winners, earned as three-year-olds beforehand, are listed below as well as those of this year's contenders.

Derby Winner *Last race, two back, etc...
FUNNY CIDE 111, 103, 97
WAR EMLEM 109, 105, 88, 94
MONARCHOS 108, 108, 106, 98
FUSAICHI PEGASUS 110, 103, 100, 98
CHARISMATIC 104, 94, 94, 94, 88, 83
REAL QUIET 107, 103, 73
SILVER CHARM 102, 98, 105
GRINDSTONE 101, 102, 93
THUNDER GULCH 98, 103, 106
GO FOR GIN 104, 105, 99, 100
SEA HERO 96, 85 (T), 77
LIL E. TEE 102, 96, 107, 100
STRIKE THE GOLD 109, 100, 99, 87
UNBRIDLED 108, 101, 104, 98


2004 hopefuls Last race, two back, etc...
ACTION THIS DAY 100, 90, 99
BIRDSTONE 87, 97, 104
BORREGO 104, 101, 100
CASTLEDALE (Ire) 102, 94
EDDINGTON 98, 103, 105, 106
FRIENDS LAKE 99, 94
IMPERIALISM 100, 104, 99, 89 (T)
LIMEHOUSE 107, 100, 105
LION HEART 114, 104
MASTER DAVID 98, 101, 98
MINISTER ERIC 103, 103, 95
POLLARD'S VISION 105, 101, 107, 93
PRO PRADO 102, 100, 99, 98
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH 109, 98, 97
READ THE FOOTNOTES 95, 108
SMARTY JONES 105, 109, 101
SONG OF THE SWORD 105, 102, 99, 97, 90
ST AVERIL 90, 101, 102
TAPIT 98, 93
THE CLIFF'S EDGE 115, 97, 97
WIMBLEDON 91, 103, 99, 95

* Speed Ratings are from only three-year-old starts before the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Bob Baffert informed Churchill Downs' officials on Friday morning that Louisiana Derby (G2) hero WIMBLEDON (Wild Rush) will not run in the Kentucky Derby (G1) due to an injury to his left front leg. The gray colt has a knot near the tendon in the leg.

"He wasn't lame or anything on it, but there is (a knot) about a size of a dime there," Baffert said. "There is a little spot on the outside. These things sometimes may not be that bad. I don't think it's a career ending injury, but it's enough that we don't feel comfortable about taking him out there and running him this weekend."

An ultrasound and other tests were scheduled to determine the extent of the injury.

"We got him out and we jogged him. He's fine, he's not sore, but I had a vet come in there and look at it and there is something going on there," Baffert explained. "It's probably not that bad right not but if we were to go out there and run him then you can really hurt him. We don't know the extent of the injury and we won't know until late this afternoon."

Wimbledon's defection means three-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert will not have an entrant for the first time since 1996, the longest active streak for any trainer. Jerry Bailey, a two-time Kentucky Derby winner, is also without a mount.

Wimbledon was listed at 15-1 on the morning line.

Later in the morning, trainer Rafael Becerra scratched ST AVERIL (Saint Ballado) from the Kentucky Derby. Becerra was not satisfied with the way the colt trained and said his feet were still bothering him. St Averil, who finished a disappointing sixth as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 3, had been training in bar shoes on both front feet. He was fitted with standard racing plates for his gallop on Friday.

"His feet have been tender," Becerra said. "We reshod him this morning, taking off the bar shoes he's been training in, but I still wasn't satisfied with the way he's traveling. He's too nice a colt to take a chance with and he has a great future ahead of him."

St Averil was listed at 30-1 on the morning line.

Every year we see horses ill-suited for the demanding 10-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby (G1). For others, 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May just comes too early in their career.

When it comes to the Run for the Roses, we prefer a horse that is bred to handle a mile and a quarter. This is especially important in 2004, as there are more horses this season, compared to last year, that are bred to perform well at 10 furlongs.

I tapped into the powerful pedigree data available in the 2004 American Produce Records to assist me in arriving at the following list. Here are the horses bred well to negotiate the added distance (in no particular order):

CASTLEDALE (Ire) (Peintre Celebre-Louju, by Silver Hawk) - this Irish-bred has stamina top and bottom for him to improve as the distances increase. The way he finished in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) does little to dispel that theory. Average winning distance (AWD) of 8.8 furlongs on both sides of his pedigree.

TAPIT (Pulpit-Tap Your Heels, by Unbridled) - this grandson of A.P. Indy has displayed an enormous amount of talent in only four career starts. His dam, a half to the outstanding miler and multiple Grade 1 winner Rubiano, provides stamina as a daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled. Conditioned by Michael Dickinson, one of the greatest trainers of all time, Tapit will be fit and ready Saturday.


BIRDSTONE (Grindstone-Dear Birdie, by Storm Bird) - the Champagne (G1) winner is by a Kentucky Derby winner and is a half-brother to Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Bird Town, so distance is not a question. Failure to progress as a three-year-old is the major concern.

FRIENDS LAKE (A. P. Indy-Antespend, by Spend A Buck) - with classic winners on both sides of his pedigree, this colt will relish longer distances. His dam was an outstanding runner, earning more than $1 million while capturing Grade 1 stakes on both dirt and turf. The two-race/layoff strategy employed by his trainer is the concern.

BORREGO (El Prado-Sweet as Honey, by Strike The Gold) - late-running colt gets a lot of stamina from his female side. His sire has also had plenty of distance runners, so 10 furlongs is within reach for the Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up.

ACTION THIS DAY (Kris S.-Najecam, by Trempolino) - is running out of excuses for Mandella. The son of Kris S. has the ideal Belmont S. (G1) pedigree.

MASTER DAVID (Grand Slam-Nadra [Ire], by Sadler's Wells) - given the wealth of stamina present from his first and second dam, this colt should relish 10 furlongs. He is a half to three winners in Europe, all of whom won beyond 10 furlongs. Received a perfect prep race in the Wood Memorial (G1) and is trained by Bobby Frankel.

THE CLIFF'S EDGE (Gulch-Zigember, by Danzig) - some may believe he has distance limitations as a son of Gulch. However, Gulch has already sired a Kentucky Derby winner in Thunder Gulch, and The Cliff's Edge is a half-sibling to a runner with a 9.5 AWD. His dam is also half to six route winners. Stamina runs deep on the female side. Plus, The Cliff's Edge loves Churchill Downs.


Summary

I strongly believe that Tapit is the most talented runner in the field. However, we realize that the best horse doesn't always win the Run for the Roses. A perfect ride from Ramon Dominguez, who is following in the footsteps of other prominent mid-Atlantic stars before him (Chris McCarron, Kent Desormeaux and Edgar Prado), will get Tapit to the winner's circle.

If Tapit falters, the winner will come from Master David or The Cliff's Edge. Both have been brought up to this race perfectly by trainers who know what it takes to win on the big stage. My wagers in this 20-horse field will center on this trio.

Every year, just before the Kentucky Derby (G1), there is much interest in dosage figures for Derby contenders. Dosage, made popular by Leon Rasmussen's articles in the Daily Racing Form and by Dr. Steve Roman, analyzes only certain sires in a pedigree called "Chef-de-Race" sires. These sires are assigned into one or more aptitudinal groups - Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional. Brilliant represents speed in the pedigree, Professional represents stamina, and Classic is a balance of both speed and stamina.

The problem with dosage is that it does not categorize the whole pedigree, let alone all of the sires in the pedigree. Very few modern sires are assigned as Solid or Professional. Of the non-chefs, Trempolino (in the pedigree of Action This Day) was assigned Classic-Solid for this analysis, Peintre Celebre (in the pedigree of Castledale) was assigned Classic-Solid, and Pleasant Colony (in the pedigree of Pollard's Vision) was assigned Classic-Professional.

For this analysis, each sire not already a "chef-de-race" in the pedigree was assigned to an aptitudinal group based on their dosage figure, dosage of their sire and broodmare sire, and subjective opinion. These hypothetical figures are referred to as the "Instone Dosage Profile."

All pedigrees will have a total of 64 points.

From 1940 through 1990, no Kentucky Derby winner had a Dosage Index (DI) over 4.00 with a Center of Distribution (CD) over 1.00. Six Derby winners owned a CD higher than 1.00 but were under the 4.00 threshhold for DI. However, since Strike The Gold won the 1991 Kentucky Derby there have been three more Derby winners with a DI of 4.00 or higher -- Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet and Charismatic. Two horses fail to meet the criteria in this year's field -- Minister Eric and Wimbledon.

Dual Qualifiers are so noted on this list by an asterisk. A Dual Qualifier is one that meets the guideline of a DI 4.00 or less AND ranked within 10 pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap for two-year-olds or was designated a juvenile champion in another country.

For more information and explanations on Dosage, check the Brisnet Library for "Explanation of Dosage" and Dr. Roman's "Advanced Dosage Theory."

*ACTION THIS DAY (Kris S.)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
5-4-21-2-0, 1.56 0.38

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
8-7-42-6-1 1.29 0.23

Has not reproduced juvenile form. Pedigree says he should be able to run all day. Could bounce back Saturday but anxious to see him run in the Belmont S. (G1).

*BIRDSTONE

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
3-4-9-0-2 1.77 0.33

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
4-16-42-0-2 1.78 0.31

Throw out his Lanes' End S. (G2) performance when the track was sealed right before race. Birdstone then missed his final scheduled prep when scratched from the Blue Grass S. (G1) due to low white cell count. The Fappiano-Unbridled to Storm Bird-Silent Screen pedigree does add stamina, though. Can't ignore him.

BORREGO (El Prado [Ire])

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
6-4-15-5-0 1.40 0.37

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
9-5-45-5-0 1.33 0.28

Assigned El Prado as a Classic sire and he could have been Classic-Solid as a son of chef-de-race sire Sadler's Well's. Should have no problem with distance.

CASTLEDALE (Ire) (Peintre Celebre)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
7-4-25-0-0 1.88 0.50

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
7-4-44-0-9 1.06 0.00

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) winner Peintre Celebre adds a lot of stamina to this pedigree, which already includes Roberto and Silver Hawk. If early fractions are quick, this one will be coming late.

FRIENDS LAKE (A.P. Indy)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
6-4-10-0-0 3.00 0.80

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
10-11-40-2-1 1.78 0.42

Won as huge overlay in Florida Derby (G1) after finishing third in Holy Bull (G3). A.P. Indy not a chef-de-race yet but should be soon. Can't overlook Friends Lake despite long time off.

IMPERIALISM (Langfuhr)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
3-4-7-0-0 3.00 0.71

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
11-16-37-0-0 2.46 0.59

Lacking stamina in pedigree. Not using him in my superfecta ticket.

LIMEHOUSE (Grand Slam)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
12-1-9-0-0 3.89 1.14

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
29-1-34-0-0 2.76 0.92

Much to like with Grand Slam's first two crops and, while it's unknown yet whether he will add the necessary stamina, one can expect him to be a stamina influence as he out of an El Gran Senor mare with Graustark also in there. Limehouse could possibly do it, but I have to question his ability at the distance.

*LION HEART (Tale of the Cat)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
6-2-8-0-0 3.00 0.88

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
18-8-37-1-0 2.28 0.67

Stamina the question here. Has good speed but so do others in the field. Very consistent colt must be respected despite pedigree.

MASTER DAVID (Grand Slam)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
8-1-14-5-0 1.33 0.43

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
21-1-37-5-0 1.72 0.59

Inherits added stamina influence from Sadler's Wells on dam's side. Dam is out of an Alydar mare, which is out of a Graustark mare. This additional stamina in the pedigree makes him a contender.

MINISTER ERIC (Old Trieste)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
9-2-7-0-0 4.14 1.11

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
26-5-33-0-0 2.88 0.89

Deceased sire could have been a good one, but Minister Eric is lacking solid or professional representation.

POLLARD'S VISION (Carson City)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
12-2-14-2-0 2.33 0.80

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
27-2-32-1-2 2.37 0.80

Receives some needed stamina influence on the dam's side and can't ignore this son of Carson City. But Pollard's Vision had a dream trip at Hawthorne, which is not likely to happen here.

PRO PRADO (El Prado [Ire])

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
6-6-14-4-0 1.73 0.47

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
14-6-40-4-0 1.67 0.47

Followed Smarty Jones in last three. Should like additional distance here.

QUINTONS GOLD RUSH (Wild Rush)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
11-4-11-0-0 3.73 1.00

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
12-18-34-0-0 2.76 0.66

Light on stamina representation. Mile and a sixteenth in Lexington S. (G2) was perfect for him, but 10 furlongs may be too far.

READ THE FOOTNOTES (Smoke Glacken)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
8-2-12-0-2 2.00 0.58

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
23-2-36-0-2 2.15 0.69

Gains stamina infusion from dam's side through Al Nasr/Lyphard and Vaguely Noble, but Read the Footnotes' ability to get 1 1/4 miles is still in question.

SMARTY JONES (Elusive Quality)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
10-3-8-1-0 3.40 1.00

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
29-4-30-1-0 3.00 0.95

Undefeated star has outrun his pedigree. There are stamina influences, which seems to be carrying him so far, but Smarty Jones faces a tough task at 1 1/4 miles for a $5 million bonus.

SONG OF THE SWORD (Unbridled's Song)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
2-6-9-1-2 1.67 0.25

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
6-19-36-1-2 2.05 0.41

Chased the speed in last two and was carried wide in first turn at Hawthorne. Distance should suit him and chances improve if early fractions are quick.


TAPIT (Pulpit)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
9-3-12-2-2 1.80 0.54

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
11-12-37-2-2 1.84 0.44

Impressed in Wood Memorial (G1). Like Pulpit as a sire and Unbridled as a broodmare sire. Tapit should do well in the Triple Crown.

THE CLIFF'S EDGE (Gulch)

Roman's Profile Dosage DI CD
12-6-12-0-0 4.00 1.00

Instone Profile Dosage DI CD
26-11-26-0-1 3.57 0.95

Ran big in Blue Grass (G1), but that may have been his best race. Question him at this distance.

Conclusion

It is a wide-open Kentucky Derby, and I'll be boxing my selections in the exacta and trifecta. My picks are: Song of the Sword, Tapit, Birdstone, Borrego, Castledale and Master David.

Derby lesson: Read the Footnotes
By NOEL MICHAELS
KENTUCKY DERBY, Saturday, May 1

After weeks and months of reading about it, talking about it, and waiting for it, the Kentucky Derby is finally here. This year's Derby should be one of the most wide-open renewals in recent memory, with few, if any, toss-outs in the evenly-matched 20-horse field.

Dozens of prep races are now in the rear-view, but those races have not done much to thin the ranks of contenders, nor have they been able to establish a legitimate favorite. Smarty Jones and The Cliff's Edge should go off favored somewhere in the range of 5-1 to 6-1, but even at those odds the favorites seem like bad bets in this, or any other Kentucky Derby. The favorite has lost 23 out of the last 24 Derbies, and this race looks like absolutely the last place you'd want to try and buck that trend. Derby 130 this Saturday will be a total toss-up, so why not take a shot and try to beat the favorites. There will be plenty of good betting options in the field, and many prime contenders should be going off at odds of over 10-1, or even 15-1.

Best of luck on Derby Day, and don't forget to have some fun. For racing fans, this day is supposed to be what it's all about.

Kentucky Derby - G1
Churchill Downs - Race 10
1 1/4 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) 14-Read the Footnotes
2) 8-Master David
3) 3-Lion Heart
4) 16-Castledale

Of all the races run by all the 3-year-olds at all the tracks so far this year, the winning effort by Read the Footnotes in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park way back on Feb. 14 still ranks at the top of the list. His gameness, will to win, and Beyer speed figure of 113 for that race have yet to be matched by any other horse in the Derby field this spring, and it's questionable whether any other horse besides Read the Footnotes is even capable of repeating an effort that good on Saturday. Since the Fountain of Youth, Read the Footnotes has run only once, and that was only a fourth-place effort in the Florida Derby seven weeks ago. Hence, Read the Footnotes will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-1 instead of 5-1 in the Derby, and that's supposed to be a good thing for bettors, not a bad thing, right?

When Read the Footnotes won the Fountain of Youth he was running his first start off a layoff, and he clearly proved in that race he could run his best effort when fresh. After that career-best effort, Read the Footnotes did what every handicapper and their grandmother thought he'd do, he bounced in the Florida Derby with a sub-par effort. I, for one, won't fault him for doing something I expected of him, especially when so many horses including him didn't handle Gulfstream's dry and sandy track on Florida Derby Day. Other Florida derby also-rans including Tapit and The Cliff's Edge came out of that race to run career bests in their next starts. I expect the same from Read the Footnotes, except instead of doing it in the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass like those rivals, he'll be ready to do it on the first Saturday in May in the Kentucky Derby.

Given this year's 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, trips and pace very well could make all the difference in the race. It seems logical that you'd want a horse who can be within striking distance of the leaders, but not too far back in the pack with 12 or 15 horses to pass en route to victory. Read the Footnotes should be in a perfect spot, as should Master David who is likely to sit close to the pace in the second flight of horses down the backstretch.

Master David will round out my Derby exacta boxes. He should be in the neighborhood of 10-1 to 12-1 odds on Saturday, a rarity for any Bobby Frankel trainee. Master David displayed his quality with a runner-up finish behind Read the Footnotes in last fall's Remsen Stakes, and again when he won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita in February over Borrego, Preachinatthebar, and Action This Day. Since then, Frankel gave Master David most of the winter off and brought him back with a good second-place effort in the Wood Memorial when the horse clearly wasn't fully cranked-up in his first race off a two-month layoff. Master David is now prepped and ready for his career best effort, and Frankel will obviously have all the screws tightened on Saturday.

The best and most talented horse in the Derby may be Lion Heart, but we all know that the best horse doesn't always win the Derby for a variety of reasons. Like Smarty Jones, Lion Heart is a fierce competitor who will try his guts out each and every time he runs. He'll be difficult to restrain on the pace, and probably will try too hard and run too fast early to be able to hold on and win at 1 1/4 miles. It is also my belief that with similar running styles and a similar will to win, Lion Heart and Smarty Jones will be detrimental to each other's chances. Lion Heart will need a super-phenomenal effort similar to that of Peace Rules last year in order to stick around for an in-the-money placing in the Derby. But if he's as good as I think he is, that could be distinct possibility.

It's rare that you'll see the winner of a race like the Santa Anita Derby go off at odds near 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby, but that should be the case this year with Castledale, who cannot be overlooked this year despite his odds. He may have the right running style, and should be able to run all day, which could be key if some of his top competition tires in the quarter mile come Saturday. Besides, if the winner of the Santa Anita Derby wins the Kentucky Derby and pays $30, you'll be kicking yourself after the race that you didn't have at least $2 on him to win.

Of all the horses that I've excluded from my bets, the ones I'm most afraid of are Tapit and The Cliff's Edge. I like both of these horses a lot, but I think their running style from so far off the pace in a 20-horse field will hurt both of their chances. Both will also be amongst the favorites. Tapit, who trains on Michael Dickinson's quiet farm, seemed bewildered by the crowd of 17,000 at Aqueduct on Wood Memorial Day. My gut feeling is that this immensely talented horse won't handle the crowd and atmosphere at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.

The tangle at the Twin Spires


Last year at Churchill, Jerry Bossert ($329) and Dave Little ($300) each made a healthy profit on the "Run for the Roses" while Sherry Ross tapped out. Now, with the Triple Crown series about to start, our trio of track touts, armed with a $100 bankroll, will once again try to make a score.

DAVE LITTLE

Lion Heart was gunned down at Keeneland, but will hold on this time at Churchill! I'll play $20 to win and place on Lion Heart. Then, a $2 trifecta key using Lion Heart over Smarty Jones, The Cliff's Edge, Master David and Read The Footnotes plus a $1 ticket using Lion Heart in the place spot and the show spot. Finally, a $6 exacta partial wheel using Lion Heart over Smarty Jones and The Cliff's Edge.

JERRY BOSSERT

I'll try a $5 exacta partial wheel using Smarty Jones and The Cliff's Edge over Lion Heart, Imperialism, The Cliff's Edge, Read The Footnotes, Smarty Jones and Castledale. Then, a $3 exacta using Smarty Jones, The Cliff's Edge, Lion Heart, Imperialism, Read The Footnotes and Castledale over Smarty Jones and The Cliff's Edge. Then, $10 to win on both Smarty Jones and The Cliff's Edge.

SHERRY ROSS

Just realized my top three picks are a horse with a fractured skull, one who's blind and another whose right eyeball is sunken into his head. This gives new meaning to the term "handicapping." I'll play $40 win on Smarty Jones and $6 exacta partial wheel using Smarty Jones over Pollard's Vision, Imperialism, Lion Heart, Borrego and The Cliff's Edge. Also, $5 exacta partial wheels using Pollard's Vision over Smarty Jones, Imperialism and Lion Heart and Imperialism over Smarty Jones, Pollard's Vision, and Wimbledon.

HORSEMEN FAVOR 'EDGE,' TAPIT

By ANTHONY STABILE and JOHN DaSILVA

April 30, 2004 -- In what is shaping up as one of the most contentious Kentucky Derbies in the past 25 years, The Post asked some of the nation's top horsemen to help sort out the confusion and select the winner of tomorrow's Run for the Roses.na who has won four Derbies): "It's so tough, I think if you gave some people 15 picks they could still get it wrong. I really liked Eddington, Rock Hard Ten and The Cliff's Edge, so with the first two being out, I'll land on The Cliff's Edge."

Neil Howard (trainer of last year's Horse of the Year Mineshaft): "I'm going to go with The Cliff's Edge. All of his preps were good, and just from watching him down here, he seems to be doing great. I didn't realize what a big, strong, good-looking horse he is. He's got a real nice way about him, a total package."

Kentucky Derby picks
By Bill Finley
Special to ESPN.com

There's no sense mincing words: Tapit's Wood Memorial was an extraordinary race. Nothing had gone right for the gray son of Pulpit since the beginning of the year. He missed the Risen Star Stakes because of a shin problem, was forced into an impossible spot in which to make his 3-year-old debut in the Florida Derby and then came out of the race with a lung infection. Trainer Michael Dickinson was still playing catch up when he entered the Wood Memorial and hoped for nothing more than a decent performance that would get his horse ready for the Kentucky Derby. Instead, Tapit, sitting last early over a speed-favoring track, moved effortlessly toward the leaders near the far turn and then glided to the front before the wire without much urging from jockey Ramon Dominguez. As good a race as that was, he seems certain to run even better in the Kentucky Derby. He's a very gifted horse and, at last, Dickinson has him right where he wants him.

Watch it in Motion
You can see a replay of the 130th running of the Kentucky Derby on ESPN Motion.

• Download Motion now
Read the Footnotes has been forgotten and written off, and that's a mistake. His Fountain of Youth was arguably the best race turned in by any 3-year-old this year. He earned a 113 Beyer figure and showed tremendous courage in running down Second of June. Unfortunately, that race took plenty out of him as he was flat in the Florida Derby. A lot has been made of the fact Read the Footnotes hasn't run since the Florida Derby and that no horse who hasn't raced in April has won the Derby since 1956. That may just be much ado about nothing. Only 18 horses gave gone into the Derby without a race in April since 1956 and most were big longshots. Trainer Rick Violette Jr. understood that his horse needed time to recover and get back on track after the poor performance in the Florida Derby. There was no other course to take. With the rest, there's every reason to believe Read the Footnotes can run right back to his Fountain of Youth.

How do you knock Smarty Jones? So what if he's from little Philly Park. So what if he's ridden by a journeyman few have heard of outside of Philly or New England?. This horse wins and he runs fast numbers. There's not an overabundance of speed in the race, so he should get a perfect stalking trip, likely sitting behind Lion Heart in the early going.

Like Tapit, Master David should be sitting on top of a peak performance. After beating a solid field in the Sham, he missed the Florida Derby due to an illness. Trainer Bobby Frankel had to regroup and wait two months for the Wood Memorial. The horse responded with a solid second-place performance and should move up off that effort.

It wouldn't come as any great surprise if The Cliff's Edge, the morning line favorite, were to win. But I can't forget that this is the same horse who couldn't win the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs when beaten by the immortal Kaufy Mate. His performance in the Florida Derby was better, but it was far from a great race. Aside from the Blue Grass, this horse has done nothing this year. Does he really deserve to be the favorite off just that one race?

Pollard's Vision, the one-eyed horse, didn't beat much in the Illinois Derby, but he's a pretty solid horse who is on the improve. It would be no surprise should he hit the board. Lion Heart is a fast horse with a lot of talent, but there's nothing about him that suggests he can win a major race at a mile and a quarter. Change the Derby distance to a mile and a sixteenth and he'd be a cinch. Friends Lake's win in the Florida Derby has been maligned because it produced a slow Beyer figure. But the race looked a lot better when The Cliff's Edge and Tapit came out of it to win the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial. Still, Friends Lake has the look of a one-race wonder. The same can be said for Castledale, whose credentials were unimpressive before his surprising win in the Santa Anita Derby.

Borrego has been consistent all year, but must improve considerably after three straight second-place finishes. For a while, Imperialism looked like he might be the best horse in California, but he had no excuses when a flat third in the Santa Anita Derby.

It's hard to make any kind of case for Minister Eric,St. Averil, Action This Day, Birdstone, Prop Prado, Song of the Sword, Limehouse or Quinton's Gold Rush.

Picks Summary: 1. Tapit 2. Read the Footnotes 3. Smarty Jones

18 horses, 8 real threats at Derby

BY JIM O'DONNELL STAFF REPORTER

LOUISVILLE, Ky.na (3), Baffert (2) and Todd Pletcher (2). A silly throw-in, perhaps, but then again, maybe not.

The 2004 Kentucky Derby superfecta:
Fourth: Birdstone.
Third: Limehouse.
Second: Master David.
First: Smarty Jones.

Writers picks

Greg Boeck USA TODAY Imperialism
Reid Cherner USA TODAY Tapit
Bill Christine Los Angeles Times Master David
Dave Grening Daily Racing Form Tapit
Gene Guidi Detroit Free Press Tapit
Bill Handleman Asbury Park (N.J.) Press Lion Heart
Ron Indrisano The Boston Globe The Cliff's Edge
Dave Joseph South Florida Sun-Sentinel The Cliff's Edge
Tom Keyser The (Baltimore) Sun Smarty Jones
George Kimball Boston Herald Castledale
Gary Mihoces USA TODAY Tapit
Doug Mittler SportsTicker Master David
Tom Pedulla USA TODAY Master David
Jay Privman Daily Racing Form The Cliff's Edge
Jennie Rees The (Louisville) Courier-Journal The Cliff's Edge
Rich Rosenblatt Associated Press Master David
Pohla Smith Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Smarty Jones
Gary West Dallas Morning News Smarty Jones

LIMEHOUSE

Jockey: Jose Santos. Pulled upset last year with New York-bred Funny Cide.

Saddle cloth: No. 1. Odds: 30-1.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Rising star fell short first seven attempts.

Owner: Dogwood Stable.

Breeder: Cheryl Curtin (Fla.).

Sire: Grand Slam (Gone West). Dam: Dixieland Blues (Dixieland Band).

Record: 9, 5-0-3. Earnings: $575,435.

Last start: Third, Blue Grass.

What's to like: Owns 2-for-2 mark at Churchill.

Second thoughts: Yet to win Grade 1.

Bottom line: Nothing in stretch.

SONG OF THE SWORD

Saddle cloth: No. 2. Odds: 30-1.

Jockey: Norberto Arroyo Jr. Experiences first Derby.

Trainer: Jennifer Pedersen. Joins Kristin Mulhall as only two women who have saddled starters in same Derby.

Owner: Paraneck Stable.

Breeders: Joe Carroll and Ernie Paragallo (Fla.).

Sire: Unbridled's Song (Unbridled). Dam: Appealing Ms Sword (Crusader Sword).

Record: 5, 3-1-1. Earnings: $211,100.

Last start: Third, Lexington.

What's to like: Solid in last two.

Second thoughts: No 2-year-old starts.

Bottom line: Strictly an outsider.

LION HEART

Saddle cloth: No. 3. Odds: 10-1.

Jockey: Mike Smith. Looks to end 0-for-10 drought.

Trainer: Patrick Biancone. Second starter after Brancusi (16th last year).

Owners: Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor.

Breeder: Sabine Stable (Ky.).

Sire: Tale of the Cat (Storm Cat). Dam: Satin Sunrise (Mr. Leader).

Record: 5, 3-2-0. Earnings: $500,800.

Last start: Second, Blue Grass.

What's to like: Courageous sort.

Second thoughts: Distance a question.

Bottom line: Won't last.

ACTION THIS DAY

Saddle cloth: No. 4. Odds: 30-1.

Jockey: David Flores. West Coast-based rider winless with six Derby mounts.

Trainer: Richard Mandella. Nowhere in four previous tries.

Owner: B. Wayne Hughes.

Breeder: Jaime Carrion Trustee (Ky.).

Sire: Kris S (Roberto). Dam: Najecam (Trempolino).

Record: 6, 2-1-0. Earnings: $822,084.

Last start: Sixth, Blue Grass.

What's to like: Can win at absolute best.

Second thoughts: Beaten by combined 23 lengths last two.

Bottom line: Needs dramatic improvement.

WIMBLEDON

SCRATCHED FRIDAY

Saddle cloth: No. 5. Odds: 15-1.

Jockey: Jerry Bailey. Best rider of his era is 2-for-16 in this, succeeding with Sea Hero (1993) and Grindstone (1996).

Trainer: Bob Baffert. Three-time winner and counting.

Owner: James McIngvale.

Breeder: Sabine Stables (Ky.).

Sire: Wild Rush (Wild Again). Dam: Strawberry Clover (Darn That Alarm).

Record: 7, 2-3-0. Earnings: $430,980.

Last start: Fifth, Santa Anita Derby.

What's to like: Working well at Churchill.

Second thoughts: Dull last start.

Bottom line: Dangerous connections.

FRIENDS LAKE

Saddle cloth: No. 6. Odds: 15-1.

Jockey: Richard Migliore. Fourth appearance here.

Trainer: John Kimmel. Fifth with Wheelaway (2000) in lone shot.

Owners-breeders: Mary and Chester Broman (N.Y.).

Sire: A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew). Dam: Antespend (Spend a Buck).

Record: 5, 3-0-1. Earnings: $695,600.

Last start: Won Florida Derby.

What's to like: Rallied four wide to win in Florida.

Second thoughts: Trying to be first since Sunny's Halo (1983) to wear roses after only two 3-year-old starts.

Bottom line: Can't recommend.

MINISTER ERIC

Saddle cloth: No 7. Odds: 30-1.

Jockey: Pat Day. Top Churchill Downs rider 1-for-21; lone win aboard Lil E. Tee (1992).

Trainer: Richard Mandella (see Action This Day).

Owner-breeder: Diamond A Racing Corp. (Ky.).

Sire: Old Trieste (A.P. Indy). Dam: Musical Minister (Deputy Minister).

Record: 8, 2-3-2. Earnings: $437,971.

Last start: Won allowance.

What's to like: Sharp in last.

Second thoughts: Takes huge step up.

Bottom line: Not this time.

MASTER DAVID

Saddle cloth: No. 8. Odds: 12-1.

Jockey: Alex Solis. Has come up empty in 13 starts.

Trainer: Bobby Frankel. Still chasing prize after second (Empire Maker) and third (Peace Rules) last year.

Owners: Georgica Stable, Andrew Rosen, Stephen Mack.

Breeder: Hopewell Investments (Ky.).

Sire: Grand Slam (Gone West). Dam: Nadra (Sadler's Wells).

Record: 7, 2-4-1. Earnings: $268,756.

Last start: Second, Wood Memorial.

What's to like: Full of late run in Wood.

Second thoughts: Won one of four dirt tries.

Bottom line: Lots to like.

ST AVERIL

SCRATCHED FRIDAY

Saddle cloth: No. 9. Odds: 30-1.

Jockey: Tyler Baze. Distant 14th last year with Indian Express.

Trainer: Rafael Becerra. Run for Roses debut.

Owner: Stan Fulton.

Breeder: Gunsmith Stables (Ky.).

Sire: Saint Ballado (Halo). Dam: Avie's Fancy (Lord Avie).

Record: 5, 2-2-0. Earnings: $238,000.

Last start: Sixth, Santa Anita Derby.

What's to like: Sharp before Santa Anita.

Second thoughts: Disappointing in last.

Bottom line: Must rebound.

IMPERIALISM

Saddle cloth: No. 10. Odds: 15-1.

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux. Two-time winner with Real Quiet (1998), Fusaichi Pegasus (2000).

Trainer: Kristin Mulhall. At 21, bids to become first female and youngest trainer to win.

Owner: Steve Taub.

Breeder: Farnsworth Farms (Ky.).

Sire: Langfuhr (Danzig). Dam: Bodhavista (Pass the Tab).

Record: 15, 5-4-1. Earnings: $437,605.

Last start: Second, Santa Anita Derby.

What's to like: Lots of punch in last before being steadied.

Second thoughts: Heavily raced.

Bottom line: Last extended work disappointing.

THE CLIFF'S EDGE

Saddle cloth: No. 11. Odds: 4-1.

Jockey: Shane Sellers. Looking to break through in 13th Derby start.

Trainer: Nick Zito. Seeks third triumph after Strike the Gold (1991) and Go for Gin (1994).

Owner: Robert LaPenta.

Breeder: Stonerside Stable (Ky.).

Sire: Gulch (Mr. Prospector). Dam: Zigember (Danzig).

Record: 8, 4-2-1. Earnings: $835,258.

Last start: Won Blue Grass.

What's to like: Swept both starts at Churchill.

Second thoughts: Vulnerable to slow pace.

Bottom line: One of the ones.

BORREGO

Saddle cloth: No. 12. Odds: 20-1.

Jockey: Victor Espinoza. Won atop War Emblem in 2002.

Trainer: Beau Greely. Tests waters for first time.

Owners: Kelly Ralls and Scott Foster LLC et al.

Breeders: Jon Kelly, Beau Greely, Sam Bradley (Ky.).

Sire: El Prado (Sadler's Wells). Dam: Sweet as Honey (Strike the Gold).

Record: 7, 2-3-0. Earnings: $399,580.

Last start: Second, Arkansas Derby.

What's to like: Sure to handle distance.

Second thoughts: Runner-up last three.

Bottom line: Consider in exotics.

BIRDSTONE

Saddle cloth: No. 13. Odds: 50-1.

Jockey: Edgar Prado. Ran third last year with Peace Rules.

Trainer: Nick Zito. (see The Cliff's Edge).

Owner-breeder: Marylou Whitney Stables (Ky.).

Sire: Grindstone (Unbridled). Dam: Dear Birdie (Storm Bird).

Record: 5, 3-0-0. Earnings: $375,600.

Last start: Fifth, Lane's End.

What's to like: Sire won in 1996.

Second thoughts: Didn't run in key preps.

Bottom line: Preparedness in doubt.

READ THE FOOTNOTES

Saddle cloth: No. 14. Odds: 12-1.

Jockey: Robby Albarado. Never better than fifth in six starts.

Trainer: Richard Violette. Unconventional path to first Derby.

Owner: Klaravich Stables.

Breeder: Lawrence Goichman (N.Y.).

Sire: Smoke Glacken (Two Punch). Dam: Baydon Belle (Al Nasr).

Record: 7, 5-0-0. Earnings: $450,660.

Last start: Fourth, Florida Derby.

What's to like: Ran huge Fountain of Youth.

Second thoughts: Appeared to peak too soon.

Bottom line: Viable long shot.

SMARTY JONES

Saddle cloth: No. 15. Odds: 9-2.

Jockey: Stewart Elliott. Philadelphia Park veteran gets a leg up for first Derby.

Trainer: John Servis. Relative unknown has taken long road from Philly Park to Churchill.

Owner-breeder: Someday Farm (Pa.).

Sire: Elusive Quality (Gone West). Dam: I'll Get Along (Smile).

Record: 6, 6-0-0. Earnings: $878,355.

Last start: Won Arkansas Derby.

What's to like: Last work terrific.

Second thoughts: Sunny's Halo (1983) only Arkansas Derby champ to wear roses.

Bottom line: Sentimental choice.

CASTLEDALE

Saddle cloth: No. 16. Odds: 15-1.

Jockey: Jose Valdivia. Derby newcomer.

Trainer: Jeff Mullins. Sixth last year with Buddy Gil.

Owners: Frank Lyons and Greg Knee.

Breeder: Gigginstown House Stud (Ireland).

Sire: Peintre Celebre (Nureyev). Dam: Louju (Silver Hawk).

Record: 10, 3-4-1. Earnings: $559,623.

Last start: Won Santa Anita Derby.

What's to like: Scored upset at Santa Anita.

Second thoughts: Makes only third dirt start.

Bottom line: Can't dismiss off last.

POLLARD'S VISION

Saddle cloth: No. 17. Odds: 20-1.

Jockey: John Velazquez. Looks to end 0-for-6 slide.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher (see Limehouse).

Owner: Edgewood Farm.

Breeder: Charles A. Smith (Ky.).

Sire: Carson City (Mr. Prospector). Dam: Etats Unis (Dixieland Band).

Record: 10, 3-2-3. Earnings: $445,811.

Last start: Won Illinois Derby.

What's to like: Trainer at top of game.

Second thoughts: Been facing lesser.

Bottom line: Runs early, not late.

TAPIT

Saddle cloth: No. 18. Odds: 8-1.

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez. Derby debut.

Trainer: Michael Dickinson. Known as "Mad Genius" for eccentricities.

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC.

Breeder: Oldenburg Farms LLC (Ky.).

Sire: Pulpit (A.P. Indy). Dam: Tap Your Heels (Unbridled).

Record: 4, 3-0-0. Earnings: $549,800.

Last start: Won Wood Memorial.

What's to like: Has talent to be special.

Second thoughts: Eligible to bounce off Wood.

Bottom line: Don't dismiss.

PRO PRADO

Saddle cloth: No. 19. Odds: 30-1.

Jockey: John McKee. First shot at roses.

Trainer: Robert Holthus. Returns for first time since 1988 (Proper Reality, fourth).

Owner-breeder: Mrs. James Winn (Ky.).

Sire: El Prado (Sadler's Wells). Dam: Mama's Pro (Proper Reality).

Record: 7, 3-0-3. Earnings: $213,784.

Last start: Third, Arkansas Derby.

What's to like: Hasn't run a bad one.

Second thoughts: Lacks graded stakes wins.

Bottom line: No factor here.

QUINTONS GOLD RUSH

Saddle cloth: No. 20. Odds: 20-1.

Jockey: Corey Nakatani. Has come up empty with nine Derby mounts.

Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Up-and-coming trainer up track twice before.

Owners: Padua Stables and Riches Manoogian.

Breeder: Omiya Toyomi (Ky.).

Sire: Wild Rush (Wild Again). Dam: Hollywood Gold (Mr. Prospector).

Record: 5, 2-1-0. Earnings: $295,500.

Last start: Won Lexington.

What's to like: Responded to recent trainer switch.

Second thoughts: Just two weeks between starts.

Bottom line: Look elsewhere.

Speed Rating measures how fast a horse ran while making adjustments to reflect the speed of a track on a given day.
Prime Power Rating measures the most recent races and consolidates handicapping factors (speed, class, pace, form, weight and distance) into one composite rating.

Speed Rating

115 The Cliff's Edge
114 Lion Heart
109 Smarty Jones
109 Quintons Gold Rush
108 Read The Footnotes
107 Limehouse
107 Pollard's Vision
105 Song of the Sword
104 Borrego
104 Imperialism
103 Wimbledon
103 Minister Eric
102 St Averil
102 Castledale
102 Pro Prado
101 Master David
100 Action This Day
99 Friends Lake
98 Tapit
97 Birdstone

Prime Power Rating

158.9 Lion Heart
155.8 Smarty Jones
152.8 The Cliff's Edge
152.7 Read The Footnotes
151.7 Limehouse
151.0 Pollard's Vision
149.5 Quintons Gold Rush
148.4 Tapit
148.0 Birdstone
148.0 Song of the Sword
147.3 Master David
147.1 Borrego
146.2 Wimbledon
144.9 St Averil
144.7 Minister Eric
144.4 Castledale
144.4 Imperialism
144.3 Action This Day
143.5 Friends Lake
143.5 Pro Prado

Derby Preview from churchill downs track picker


LION HEART is the way to go in Derby 130. He's being overlooked by the masses despite two incredible seconds in the San Rafael and the Blue Grass. He's faster than most here by the numbers and trainer Patrick Biancone got a nice dress rehearsal for this with Brancusi last year. Biancone is ultra confident in his charge and he's been laying low at Keeneland while the others have basked in the Derby hype. At projected odds around 12-1, he's a steal. SMARTY JONES is undefeated and basically untested coming into the Derby. Many will knock his pedigree but these are the same people who told you Distorted Humor (Funny Cide), Mr. Prospector (Fusaichi Pegasus) and Gulch (Thunder Gulch) were too speed oriented to get a Derby winner. With an extra $5 million dollar bonus from the foks in Arkansas on the line, this Pennsylvania bred seems to have two entire states rooting for him. MASTER DAVID seems to have the greatest right to improve of any of the Derby starters. His runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial was a solid race but he had to need it after two months away. Ace trainer Bobby Frankel should have him sitting on a peak effort here and his charge has the stalking style to work out a trip in the first flight without having to make the pace. He's very, very dangerous but Frankel's fans will hurt the price. POLLARD'S VISION is as game as they come. He, like his owner, is blind in one eye but it isn't holding either one of them back one bit. This colt will be overlooked by many but he came into his own in the Illinois Derby win and should fire another huge shot here. He has a tough post for a speed horse in the 17 hole but has the rider to overcome it in John Velazquez. TAPIT is very dangerous for legendary trainer Michael Dickinson. Like Master David, he should improve several lengths off his visually impressive Wood Memorial. THE CLIFF'S EDGE is a deserving favorite but you can't play them all. BORREGO has a great chance to run on late for second, third or fourth.

The 130th Kentucky Derby

1. Limehouse...Santos 30-1...Solid foundation at 2, though not spectacular. His limit would be just about enough to win this. Would have to improve off of Tampa and Keeneland efforts. Probably best suited for shorter--for now. Not out of the question where exotics are concerned. Usually breaks well, which will be important from the 1 hole. Probably will use too much energy early to be a factor late.

2. Song Of The Sword...Arroyo Jr. 30-1...No races at 2, which is a problem. Decent enough effort in the Illinois Derby and the Lexington, but that won't cut the mustard here. Paragallo gives bad karma anyway.

3. Lion Heart...Smith 10-1...Perfect post position for a horse that will want the lead. Probability of an off track enhances his chances of stealing it. He is quality speed. This ain't no Old Trieste. 10 furlongs is a question, but there are precious few who can catch him loose on the lead. Ran fast as a 2 year-old, and has run fast this year. Catch him if you can!

4. Action This Day...Flores 30-1...As usual, the Juvy champ has not lived up to early expectations. What is it about that race anyway? You won't find a more capable handler than Mandella. Rounded back nicely to his Juvy number in the Bluegrass, but the rest have already gone by and that only got him 13 lengths behind Cliffy. BIG improvement needed here, and I don't know if ANY horse could improve that much in 3 weeks.

5. Wimbledon...Bailey 15-1...Have to believe the Louisiana Derby knocked him out for awhile. Congrats to connections who outbid all for Jerry's services. Unfortunately, Jerry isn't strong enough to carry him that last 1/8 mile. And that's what it will take for him to get a piece.

6. Friends Lake...Migliore 15-1...Here we go again! I have a tendency for ignoring the Florida Derby winner every year, and that has come back to bite me a few times over the last 10 runnings. This time, I have extra incentive as he skipped the April preps. Probably knocked out by that quicksand at Gulfstream. But the other contestants have come back to run spectacularly in their April preps as evidenced by wins for Clffy and Tapit in their next start. Could they now be due for a bounce and this guy take his turn? Can a New York bred win twice in a row? Don't be surprised if he's wearing the Kroger Roses when all is said and done.

7. Minister Eric...Day 30-1...I loved this guy in the Breeders' Cup. If I had been smart enough, I would have boxed him with Mandella's other and had a nice exacta score. Good solid 2 year-old season. Has progressed nicely this year, but avoiding major competition. Now is the time for a real test.

8. Master David...Solis 12-1...Really jumped up when Frankel switched him to dirt in his final 2 year-old race, but has yet to equal that effort at 3. Not a good sign. Might be a player down the road, but a little soon for this crowd.

9. St. Averil...T. Baze 30-1...Really showed a lot of promise before Santa Anita Derby where he disappointed as the 2-1 fav. That race was too bad to be ignored however and it appears that the San Felipe and Santa Catalina could really set him back for awhile.

10. Imperialism...Desormeaux 15-1...11 races at 2 tends to put a pretty good base on a colt. Was bothered in the Santa Anita Derby or else he might have challenged the winner. He may not care for 10 panels, but he should make his presence felt with his experience and tactical speed. A true exotics candidiate.

11. The Cliff's Edge...Sellers 4-1...Loved him in the Florida Derby, nailed him in the exacta in the Bluegrass. But was that race too much for him 3 weeks out? It's the strongest prep of the year and if he bounces, while toting that come from behind style, it could leave him completely out. However, he has strong efforts over this surface including a nice work on the 19th. A pair-up wins, a bounce loses. Bottom-line.

12. Borrego...Espinoza 20-1...Liked the way he came at Smarty at the end of the Arky Derby. Good foundation, but not overly fast at 2. Has run two beauties in a row and may be ready to move forward here. A move forward puts him in exotics. Winning not out of the question. Connections are experienced, and dam-sire won this in 1991. Likely to be a huge price and coming at the end. I like it! Can he get to Lion Heart?

13. Birdstone...Prado 50-1...Hard to believe the ML of 50-1 when just 2 months ago he was considered the top choice, or at least one of the top 2. Have to forgive the effort on the quirky Turfway surface in the Lane's End. And though he may not win here, he might have a say in the exotics. If he runs well, and Nick so decides, look out for him in Baltimore!

14. Read The Footnotes...Albarado 12-1...Ran fastest of all as a 2 year-old--maybe too fast. Easy to understand his disdain for the Florida Derby surface after he put in that monster effort in the Fountain 4 weeks earlier. Now he's skipped the April preps as a result and should be well-rested. Don't know if a Smoke Glacken can win this, but exotics certainly possible.

15. Smarty Jones...Elliott 9-2...Hard to knock. Hasn't done anything wrong and a lot of people will be happy if he can score here. Showed signs of backing up in last, and if the last few efforts have taken their toll, the place where it will show is in a 20 horse field going further than he should in front of 140,000. Not where you want a potential favorite to try and pull the ultimate.

16. Castledale...Valdivia 15-1...Not thrilled about the Santa Anita Derby, though I'm sure connections are. Difficult to explain his performance as there was nothing to suggest what was coming. Looks like a bounce candidate from here. I'll toss him.

17. Pollard's Vision...Velasquez 20-1...Good foundation at 2, though not overly fast. Best effort came in the slop at Saratoga. With track conditions expected to be off he might be worth a look in exotics. Distance may be a question so a win would be difficult to envision.

18. Tapit...Dominguez 8-1...Looks like he may be the best of this group once he figures out what the game is all about. Goofed around in the Wood and still made it look rather easy. If his head is on straight, he'll be mighty tough here. Since he comes from out of it I'm not too worried about the post position. Shallow foundation at 2 but he won both, including the Laurel Futurity off of his maiden win. Distance won't be a problem. Mud won't be a problem. Trainer will bring him in prepared. 8-1 would be a gift of rare proportions.

19. Pro Prado...McKee 30-1...Not especially fast at 2, but has now run three tough races in a row. Regression city, especially in a field like this. He won't mind the mud, but it's likely he's going to regress out of the money.

20. Quinton's Gold Rush...Nakatani 20-1...One race at 2, and he just ran a career best 2 weeks ago. Not enough bottom to support that so expect a bounce here. Awful post won't help, and he loses Bailey. Nope.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tapit is going to prove himself a man among boys here. He looked like he could have gone around again in the Wood. You know Dickinson will have him ready.

The Cliffs Edge looked like a million when he cruised past Lion Heart in the BlueGrass. The only question: How much did that race take out of him? He could regress a bit and still be right there.

Lion Heart will take the field as far as he can, and moves up on a sloppy surface. Could hold on for the win, but I'm thinking he'll be passed buy one or both of the above.

Friends Lake hasn't run since the Florida Derby, but he's been training on that deep Payson surface. The same surface that set him up for the win in the Florida Derby that has turned out to be a key race. Do Tapit and Cliffy bounce while this guy takes his turn? Could be.

Borrego looks ready for a top effort which should get him a piece.

Imperialism looks best of the west-coasters and could end up in exotics.





1. Tapit

2. The Cliffs Edge

3. Lion Heart

4. Friends Lake

5. Borrego

6. Imperialism


Best of luck everyone!

The Cliff's Edge - He is a dual qualifier, although he lacks stamina points in his dosage profile, is trained by a successful Derby trainer, and is ridden by a jockey with Derby experience. He has not paired Beyer tops, meaning he is less susceptible to bounce at Churchill, but has a respectable 111 best Beyer in a route race, two wins at Churchill Downs, and the correct running style. Unfortunately he stands a good chance of being the favorite which is generally a jinx, but still has a good shot.

Borrego - It was a bit surprising to see this guy come up second, but he does have an experienced trainer and jockey, has run the right number and type of preps, has a top Beyer of 105, and finished second in three major preps. His dosage is in the proper range and his has stamina points in his profile. He has the right running style and has been working well at Churchill Downs. He could be a sleeper pick this year.

Pollard's Vision - I don't know if a one-eyed horse has ever won the Derby, but this one has a chance. He has one of the top Beyers of the contenders at 107, an experienced trainer and jockey, and a win at 1 1/8 miles. His last win was on the front, but he has shown he can stalk or rally in the past which is the preferred running style for a Derby winner. He definitely has a shot.

Limehouse - He may be a bit over-raced coming in with 9 starts lifetime, but he did win two major preps and is undefeated in two starts at Churchill Downs. He has an experienced trainer and jockey, the right running style, and a 1 1/8 mile prep. Where he falls short is no stamina points in his dosage profile and a top Beyer figure of only 100.

Smarty Jones - At first glance he seems to have everything going for him, coming into the Derby undefeated with a 108 top Beyer and bullet works at Churchill, but he also has some negatives. The biggest are having a Derby rookie trainer and jockey and a front running style. He has a lot of sprinters in his pedigree but still meets the dosage limit and even has some stamina points in his dosage profile. If The Cliff's Edge isn't the favorite, this guy probably will be which can be the kiss of death.

Master David - While he does have 3 races this year, the 2 month gap between the Sham and the Wood may make him come up a bit short still plus has only gotten a 100 top Beyer. He does have an experience trainer and jockey and stamina points in his dosage profile plus a good try in his last prep at 1 1/8 miles.

Lion Heart - This guy has shown a lot of talent with a top Beyer of 110, but he only has 2 starts this year and didn't race until March 6 so is probably a bit under-raced. His running style is pure speed and he will probably set the pace from the start which isn't a good thing. He does have an experienced trainer and jockey and while staying at Keeneland has shipped over for a work at Churchill.

Friends Lake - The biggest problems with this horse are he only has a top Beyer of 99 and hasn't raced since winning the Florida Derby. He has an experienced jockey and trainer plus the right running style, but can he be prepared for the Derby off just works for almost 2 months?

Imperialism - His biggest problems are being over-raced with 15 lifetime starts and having not only a rookie Derby trainer but a 21-year-old female trainer. He will also have a new jockey for the Derby, although it will be Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux.

He just misses the 105 Beyer par with a 104 but runs a great closing race which is the right style. This horse has been my favorite since he won the San Vicente and I still plan to put some money on him despite everything.
Read the Footnotes - Can a New York bred win two years in a row? Not only that, he has not raced since the Florida Derby where he finished 4th as the favorite. He has a top Beyer of 113, highest of all the contenders, is a dual qualifier with stamina points in his dosage profile. He may have been over-raced at two with 5 starts but only has 2 starts this year and he hasn't been training at Churchill until this week. He has a Derby rookie trainer but an experienced jockey.

Tapit - This horse is a bit of an inigma which is no surprise considering he is trained by Michael Dickinson. He has only worked at Tapeta Farm and won't ship to Churchill until Wednesday. He does have the proper dosage and stamina points in his dosage profile but his top Beyer is a weak 98 in the Wood. He only has 2 starts this year and will have a first time Derby jockey. He could be a monster with hidden form, or he could be a wise-guy horse, it's just hard to tell.

Birdstone - He was one of the favorites for the Derby at the beginning of the year, but will definitely be a longshot on Saturday. Only 2 races this year, an allowance win and a miserable 5th in the Lane's End. He hasn't raced since, scratching from the Blue Grass because of an elevated white cell count. He is a dual qualifier with stamina points in his dosage profile, is trained by a Derby winning trainer but will have a new jockey for the Derby. He doesn't have a 1 1/8 mile prep and his best Beyer is only a 99, earned in a sprint last year. I think he will need a miracle to win.

Castledale - Big upset winner of the Santa Anita Derby will likely be a big longshot in Kentucky. He only has a 103 Beyer and has only started twice this year. He does have dosage in the proper range, but no stamina points. He has a Derby rookie trainer and jockey plus he was over-raced last year with 8 starts, mostly in England.

Rock Hard Ten - This horse is very popular, but with only $90,000 in graded earnings he will be lucky to make the field. If he was ranked with the others, he would come in next to Lion Heart. He was unraced last year and has a Derby rookie trainer. He will probably have a new jockey if he gets in the Derby unless Stevens flies over for the race. He does have a bullet work at Churchill and a top Beyer of 103, but are his 3 starts this year enough seasoning for him to handle the Derby crowd and noise?

All of this analysis is strictly aimed at statistically identifying a potential Kentucky Derby winner. It has no bearing on whether the horse can finish second or third. Although the statistics used are historical facts, anti-profile horses can and do win the Derby as we saw with War Emblem in 2002. He was coming off a huge Beyer top (but didn't bounce) and won on the front end, by far the worst style to use in this race.

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby
Updated: 4/15/04

While the Kentucky Derby is a tremdous pageant and spectacle to watch, it is an absolute bear to handicap.na or Bob Baffert enter more than one horse, beware the one they doesn't hype. Thunder Gulch and Charismatic are perfect examples of this.

The Derby has a huge field, up to 20 horses, so traffic is a big problem. Remember that anything can happen with all the bumping that will go on.
Find the horse who fits the most of these criteria and you might just find the Kentucky Derby winner.