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#54329 - 05/01/03 11:32 PM Derby Profiles a must read
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Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71421
Loc: Time to play the Game
ATSWHATIMTALKNBOUT A.P. Indy--Lucinda K, by Red Ransom
Owner: Hughes & Biscuit Stables LLC
Breeder: R & R King Stables (Ky)
Trainer: Ron Ellis
Jockey: David Flores
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 102 (twice)

Promising colt has a lot going for him, but he couldn't close effectively off a fast pace in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and has yet to win a stakes. There's little doubt about his propensity to get the classic American distance, and the stretch runner could find Churchill's long one to his liking. The obvious thing going against him is the fact he didn't race at two. No horse with that in his way has won the Derby since 1882.

BRANCUSI Deputy Commander--Treize, by Alysheba
Owner: Michael Tabor
Breeder: Nancy Much (Ky)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Tony Farina
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 101 (twice)

Colt has come a long way in a short period of time but is still just a maiden winner, which isn't a good sign. However, he's out of an Alysheba mare and a son of a Travers S. (G1) and Super Derby (G1) winner, which probably means he's begging to run a bit farther. A breakthrough effort could land him in the exotics.

BUDDY GIL Eastern Echo--Really Rising, by For Really
Owner: Desperado Stabless & Merrill McFadden et al
Breeder: Billingsley Creek Ranch (Ky)
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 102 (twice)

Would be the first gelding to win the Roses since 1929, but how many have tried the Derby? In recent years, geldings such as Cavonnier, Prairie Bayou and Best Pal have finished second, so this factor is probably irrelevant. The questions about this guy will be how much his last two efforts may have taken out of him and the fact that the last three furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby were so slow (:39 1/5). Will need more, but Buddy Gil has a winning attitude and must be taken seriously.

DOMESTIC DISPUTE Unbridled's Song--Majestical Moment, by Magesterial
Owner: David Bienstock & Chuck Winner
Breeder: Gary Garber (Ky)
Trainer: Patrick Gallagher
Jockey: Alex Solis
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 99 (twice)

Gets part of the purse often but rarely comes out on top. The colt has a lot of experience with 10 career starts, one of which was a ninth, beaten only 4 3/4 lengths, in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill. However, he's had several chances against a number of rivals in here and come up short. He would be a surprise to hit the board at this level.

EMPIRE MAKER Unbridled--Toussaud, by El Gran Senor
Owner: Juddmonte Farms Inc.
Breeder: Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky)
Trainer: Bobby Frankel
Jockey: Jerry Bailey
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 111

Owns credentials as good as any in recent years, and only time will tell how good he is. He's a son of a Derby winner, is out of the best mare around now, and his broodmare sire won the '84 Irish Derby (Ire-G1), all of which mean 1 1/4 miles fits him like a glove. Owns tactical speed, has a two-time Derby winner as a rider as well as the hottest conditioner in the country. The only thing not to like about Empire Maker is his certain short price come post time. True horse players will salivate at the chance to beat him, and the payouts will be enormous should he miss the board. On Tuesday, it was revealed the colt had a foot bruise. His trainer said it wasn't much of a concern, but once again, only time will tell. Should he lose, they'll have an excuse.

EYE OF THE TIGER American Chance--Dial a Trick, by Phone Trick
Owner: John D. Gunther
Breeder: John D. Gunther (Ky)
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Eibar Coa
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 98 (twice)

Colt will be making his Grade 1 debut in this spot and still isn't a stakes winner. His breeding doesn't scream the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance, but he's improved considerably in the fast few months. Furthermore, his trainer, one of the very best, doesn't have a habit of entering overmatched horses and has never had a Derby starter. Common sense tells us Eye of the Tiger might be better than people will think.

FUNNY CIDE Distorted Humor--Belle's Good Cide, by Slewacide
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Breeder: WinStar Farm LLC (NY)
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Jose Santos
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 111

Of the definite longshots, this gelding has perhaps shown the most proof he can run with these kind. But how easy did Empire Maker really beat him in the Wood Memorial? Nonetheless, Funny Cide also distinguished himself in the Louisiana Derby (G2), which was certainly among the best prep races this year. The Wood may have taken some toll on him, and he also has yet to win against open company.

INDIAN EXPRESS Indian Charlie--Liba's Choice, by Halo
Owner: Phil Chess
Breeder: Highland Farms Inc. (Ut)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Tyler Baze
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 102

With only four lifetime starts he may have too much going against him, even with a three-time Derby winner as his trainer. The Santa Anita Derby showed he has a wealth of talent since he ran on or near the lead the entire way only to lose by a head. Interestingly, though, his broodmare sire is Halo, who's left his mark on this race with sons such as winners Sunny's Halo and Sunday Silence and a grandson in Captain Bodgit ('97 runner-up), among others. In the end, though, Indian Express may need more experience.

LONE STAR SKY Conquistador Cielo--Ministrada, by Deputy Minister
Owner: Walter New
Breeder: Jaime Carrion (Fl)
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Shane Sellers
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 102

He'll be the only 2002 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) participant in the race. Lone Star Sky owns a stakes win at Churchill, having scored in the Bashford Manor S. (G3) last July. He's won one race since, that being River Downs' Cradle S. in early September. The bay hasn't been much of a factor in four starts this year and will be tested for class should he go.

OFFLEE WILD Wild Again--Alvear, by Seattle Slew
Owner: Azalea Stables
Breeder: Dorothy A. Matz (Ky)
Trainer: T.V. Smith
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 104

Didn't threaten the top two in the Blue Grass and the missed training time around the Florida Derby (G1) could be too much to overcome. There's little doubt he'll be able to run the distance, since he's out of a Seattle Slew mare (who's a half-sister to top sire Dynaformer). The Blue Grass was his first start in nearly two months, and it may serve as a needed tightener. Offlee Wild also galloped out strongly afterward. Could have an impact with a career effort.

OUTTA HERE Dehere--Just Out, by Forty Niner
Owner: Bill Currin & Al Eisman
Breeder: Ralph C. Wilson Jr. Trustee (Ky)
Trainer: William Currin
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 99 (as a 2yo)

Is the lone horse in here with experience at 1 1/4 miles, over which he competed in Dubai. He's one who tends to come up short at the top levels and would appear to be up against it here, especially with only one start this year.

PEACE RULES Jules--Hold to Fashion, by Hold Your Peace
Owner: Edmund Gann
Breeder: Newchance Farm (Fl)
Trainer: Bobby Frankel
Rider: Edgar Prado
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 106

Will be seeking his fourth straight win and will likely be the second or third choice in the wagering. Just gives Frankel another potential winner, but the trainer has expressed concerns about Peace Rules' ability to get the Derby distance, something many conditioners don't do. The one thing Peace Rules can certainly do, should his connections wish, is provide an honest pace up front and, who knows, maybe this guy will get to the early lead. If left alone to his own devices, he'll be more dangerous. But the other riders aren't likely to allow another such episode after watching what War Emblem pulled off last year.

SCRIMSHAW Gulch--Rogue Girl, by Sham
Owner: Bob & Beverly Lewis
Breeder: Stan & Ingrid Stefanski (Ky)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Rider: Cornelio Velasquez
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 99

Haven't we seen this before? Charismatic four years ago and Proud Citizen last year, leaping from a win in the Lexington S. (G2) to a score or runner-up in the Derby, have made the Lexington one of the ultimate prep races. Scrimshaw hasn't raced beyond 1 1/16 miles yet, which the other two had done, so the increase in real estate raises some questions. However, Scrimshaw is a son of a sire who's already thrown a Derby winner and is out of a Sham mare -- plenty of stamina. Could be the "now" horse that's often referred to at this time of the year. But his price won't be as desirable since so many will jump on the Lukas-Lexington connection bandwagon.

SIR CHEROKEE Cherokee Run--La Cucina (Ire), by Last Tycoon (Ire)
Owner: Domino Stud of Lexington Inc.
Breeder: Domino Stud of Lexington LLC (Ky)
Trainer: Michael Tomlinson
Rider: Terry Thompson
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 106

Was absolutely flying at the end of the Arkansas Derby (G2), earning a 110 BRIS Late Pace figure. The wide trip did nothing to stop him, and had the race been at the Kentucky Derby distance he may have won by 10. However, that effort was by far his best, and regression would seem possible. He did, in his defense, break his maiden at Churchill and only missed winning the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) by 2 1/2 lengths.

SUPAH BLITZ Mecke--Boots 'N Jackie, by Major Moran
Owner: Bee Bee Stables & Jacquelin Tortora
Breeder: Bee Bee Stables Inc. & Equitor Inc. (Fl)
Trainer: Manny Tortora
Rider: Rosemary Homeister Jr.
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 101

Doesn't like to win but often gets part. This late runner will be a definite longshot and needs to show more to have an impact at this level. On the plus side, he worked well on the track Tuesday.

TEN CENTS A SHINE Devil His Due--Aunt Mottz, by Honey Jay
Owner: Ken & Sarah Ramsey
Breeder: H. Ray Horn & Devil His Due Syndicate (Oh)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 98

Late contestant hasn't been close in his last three and will be tested for class in this spot. One thing in his favor, however, is the fact that he likes the Churchill atmosphere, having broken his maiden and then finished a good second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2). Could show more than people expect, but a top-four finish would appear improbable.

TEN MOST WANTED Deputy Commander--Wanted Again, by Criminal Type
Owner: Horizon Stable, Chisholm, Jarvis et al
Breeder: Jim H. Plemmons (Ky)
Trainer: Wally Dollase
Rider: Pat Day
Best 3yo BRIS Speed: 109

Has steadily gotten better and ran huge in the Illinois Derby (G2) without really beating much. He has top and bottom-side breeding for 10 furlongs and could wind up as the second choice when the race goes off, especially with Pat Day in the saddle. The horse will probably close from well off the pace, and he definitely merits gimmicks consideration, if not the outright win.

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#54330 - 05/02/03 02:05 PM Re: Derby Profiles a must read
SeaVike Offline
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Registered: 02/02/02
Posts: 951
Loc: deep in the heart of Texas
Sir Cherokee scratched.

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