The Preakness. Who takes it? Whose cuisine reigns supreme? As in the Derby, our cutoff horse is Medaglia d’Oro, who managed a 102 even in Derby defeat. That said, I can tell you who won’t be taking home the black-eyed Susans: Magic Weisner, Straight Gin, Crimson Hero, Harlan’s Holiday (yes, Harlan’s Holiday), Easyfronthegitgo, Table Limit, or Menacing Dennis. Few surprises for anyone on THAT list; perhaps more of them in the horses we’re still considering.<p>U S S TINOSA was overbet to a stupid amount in the SADerby. Won’t have the same problem here. Monster race he ran in the Sam Felipe is good enough for us to keep him under consideration in the Preakness. Never gone the distance, but his finish in the Sham says this guy could have gone another lap around the track before hitting any distance walls (and having Wolf Power on the dam’s side says about the same thing). SADerby fifth is the first time since his career debut he’s been off the board. Probably not good enough to win, but watch in the exotics at a looooooooooooong price.<p>MAGIC WEISNER showed that, yes, he IS fallible in losing to Smoked ‘Em in the Tesio. Smoked ‘Em’s subsequent Lone Star Derby performance told the rest of us what most speed handicappers already knew: a long string of victories in state-bred competition does not necessarily translate to being able to run with graded horses. Tesio was a career-high for Weisner, but the four weeks in between and a number of good works tell me this guy should be primed to run another 97, or perhaps over 100. Still not good enough for more than fifth or sixth against these monsters.<p>STRAIGHT GIN is a really, really good listed horse at a mile and a sixteenth. Tack on a grading and another furlong and he becomes the pretender di tutti pretendori. I love this guy, and I will always love this guy, but he has as much of a chance of winning this as Ocean Sound did of winning the Derby.<p>CRIMSON HERO finished second in the Lexington to Derby place horse Proud Citizen. Yeah, yeah, we know. He also ran a career best to do it that puts him at least three lengths behind Magic Weisner. The only way he has a chance of hitting the board is if the pace melts down the way it did in the 2001 Derby. And while everyone seems to think that’s a foregone conclusion, name me one speed horse in the race about whom you haven’t heard this week “he’s learning to rate so he can sit off X and Y battling each other on the lead.”<p>MEDAGLIA D’ORO is the wiseguy pick for the Preakness, but only because the wise guys now are the same ones who lost bundles on him in the Derby. (And the rest of the wiseguys don’t have Saarland to kick around any more.) Yes, Medaglia d’Oro got bumped at the start of the Derby and had a nightmare trip. No, a clean start would not necessarily have changed his finish position; if it did, he might have been the guy running second all the way around the track instead of Proud Citizen. I said it before the Derby and I will say it again: Medaglia d’Oro is a speed horse. Look at the San Felipe. Look at the Wood. If he’s going to have a chance, he needs to be out on the lead. Say all you want about War Emblem coasting on easy leads, he is quite simply a faster horse than Medaglia d’Oro out of the gate. (If you use unadjusted pace figures, you’ll know there’s at least one other horse in here, Booklet, who’s even faster out of the gate than War Emblem, as well.) When you put it all together, Medaglia d’Oro does not look good, Not one bit. Especially not at the stupid 5/2 morning line, and the even stupider 8/5 he’s likely go to postward sporting.<p>HARLAN’S HOLIDAY has run a single race, the Fountain of Youth, that might put him in contention here. But true to form, as the distance goes up, the speed figures go down. It’s a classic progression, and Harlan’s Holiday typifies it better than any horse I’ve seen in the last five years. His running lines will be used in future books on handicapping to explain the concept of distance limitations. That said, if you don’t believe that Harlan’s Holiday is a tired horse, you’re likely to get a pretty fine price on him to finish in the money, and he’s got as good a chance as many in here of doing so.<p>EASYFROMTHEGITGO is still trading in his Lecomte win to draw people to the windows. Yes, he has finished in the money in three graded races since, but he hasn’t done so in any spectacular times, and while everyone and his brother loved Repent in the LaDerby days, some of the luster has come off. Finishing third to the decidedly mediocre Crimson Hero is the last straw for me. Off the board.<p>WAR EMBLEM has been so universally reviled by the press since winning the Derby that he’s bound to go off at at least 5-1. 8-1 may not be out of the question. That’s just plain dumb, and I love it. War Emblem ran a 112, the highest Derby prep speed figure (and, in fact, one of the highest speed figures to be found in a PP anywhere on the Derby card), and was ignored by everyone, including me, because no one wins the Derby wire to wire. Guess what? Not only did he win the Derby wire to wire, running :47 and 1:11.3 fractions, but he pulled a 114 Beyer. The Kentucky Derby was two-thirds of a length BETTER than the Illinois Derby! Why? Because despite the longer distance, the internal fractions were faster. They were also faster than Booklet’s internal fractions in the Blue Grass (actually, the 4f fraction was identical, the 6f one tick faster) and Proud Citizen’s in the Lexington. Thus, for me, the only question about War Emblem is whether a fresh, and presumably faster than he was in the Blue Grass, Booklet can get out there and hurt him. (Back to the question I was asking before the Derby that became a moot point: can War Emblem rate?)<p>TABLE LIMIT has tried a mile twice, with disastrous results. Has as much chance in here as It’sallinthechase did in the Derby. Hopefully a savvier crowd will let him go off at the odds he deserves.<p>BOOKLET has had five weeks off while most of the prime contenders in here are at the tail end of very, very hard campaigns. Ran strongly off the shelf in the Holy Bull, so no problems there. The main confusing signal to note with Booklet is a lackluster work on Tuesday, which is definitely out of the ordinary for Booklet, who usually bullets before a big race. Is he not as primed as John Ward would have us believe?<p>MENACING DENNIS has only slightly better a chance to win this than does Table Limit. Think of him as the Wild horses to that one’s It’sallinthechase.<p>PROUD CITIZEN stunned the crowd even more than War Emblem did, running second in the Derby at 23-1. Saying that his 108 was a career-best race would be something of an understatement. And while many of the rose-colored glasses crowd are now saying Proud Citizen is in the best spot to win the Preakness, I’m going the other way: whereas War Emblem’s Derby was foreseeable with a little hindsight, and not terribly out of character, Proud Citizen is ripe for one heck of a bounce. All this speed that’s supposed to take down War Emblem has a far better shot at landing Proud Citizen in the back half of the pack. He’ll probably return to the mid-90s whence he came.<p>EQUALITY may be the most intriguing horse in the race. Tampa Bay Derby winner couldn’t close on Marasca in the Race Formerly Known as Flamingo in his last start, and may have the same problems over a speed-favoring Old Hilltop. He has, however, made excellent showings of himself against very speedy frontrunners on very speedy tracks a number of times in the past, and there’s no reason to expect he won’t do so here again. Especially if most of the speed burns itself off, as everyone seems to expect it will, Equality should be in a fantastic position to pick up a whole lot of pieces. Almost a lock for a money slot, and an outside chance of taking all the marbles.<p>SUMMARY If you’re looking to beat War Emblem in here, and the number of people who are tell me his 3-1 morning line is a joke, the only place I’m going to point you is Equality. Flyer players might want to try U S S Tinosa at 20-1 or so. Exotics: the only horse in the race I’m planning to add is Harlan’s Holiday.
