Saturday's $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) looks to be a formality on paper, but the race still has to be run, much like a basketball tournament must be played to see who the winner actually is. If POINT GIVEN (Thunder Gulch) doesn't run to near his maximum, then there are several in this bunch who could post the upset. But all things being equal, we don't believe that will happen.

The Bob Baffert-trained colt comes off a bullet workout, recording six furlongs in a nice 1:12 on Monday, and Gary Stevens, the best there is in this race in recent years, will be aboard. Stevens has already won this race seven times, twice aboard Baffert trainees, and fits Point Given to a tee. As for the horse himself, Point Given ranks first in BRIS Prime Power, five more than his nearest rival, and owns the best Speed figures in the bunch. He's proven through and through going a route, and 1 1/8 miles should be no problem. A win here probably makes him the favorite in next month's Kentucky Derby (G1). Expect the colt to start picking off rivals nearing the far turn before producing a workmanlike victory.

For the runner-up spot, we'll go with PALMEIRO (Pleasant Tap), who was decisively defeated by CRAFTY C.T. (Crafty Prospector) in the San Rafael S. (G2). Palmeiro earned a 101 Speed figure for that effort, which is his best to date, and both of these colts were up front dueling with relatively grueling fractions. The John Sadler-trained Palmeiro is bred to manage longer routes and could have a breakthrough effort here. He should go off a square price and is a must-use in the exotics.

Crafty C.T. will take the lead from the outset and could steal the race if left up to his own devices. His San Rafael win was superb, earning a 112 BRIS E2 figure and a 106 speed rating, the highest last race figure in this race. People are questioning whether or not he can get the nine-furlong distance, but there is virtually no doubt he would have in the San Rafael if he were required to. He won't offer much value, but until he proves unable to handle this distance, he should be considered for the gimmicks and possibly the top spot.

I LOVE SILVER (Silver Ghost) was second best in the San Felipe S. (G2) to Point Given and gets a well-deserved trip into this event. He proved in that race that he could be one on the rise by earning strong BRIS Late Pace and Speed figures and also showed that he's better around two turns. The sophomore worked a bullet six furlongs in a smart 1:10 2/5 on Sunday and is worth a look at a price.

EARLY FLYER (Gilded Time) is expected to be scratched, but if he goes, he could have a say with his best. The Ron McAnally trainee was no match for Crafty C.T. in the San Rafael and would need much more to defeat that rival and others here. But we do know McAnally will do this horse justice, and for that Early Flyer must be respected.

STARTAC (Theatrical [Ire]) was no threat to Hoovergetthekeys (Mt. Livermore) in the El Camino Real Derby (G3) and would have to improve considerably to beat this bunch. He's never run at Santa Anita and seems to have just a one-run closing style. The faster the pace is up front the more we like his chances. However, he'll probably have too much to do in the latter stages. SCORPION (Seattle Slew) showed little in the Gotham S. (G3) at Aqueduct before being shipped to the West Coast. While he's competed solidly in Grade 1 competition before, he hasn't done so against lesser rivals since. We can't recommend him with confidence, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas can have something up his sleeve at any time, as last year's Belmont S. (G1) proved. CHEROKEE KIM (Cherokee Colony) is only a maiden winner on the turf and would be a surprise of stratospheric proportions were he to win this.

Point Given sure looked awesome on Saturday crushing his foes by 5 and a half lengths(sure looked more than that though). I guess the Kentucky will be his to lose going off as the probable favorite.