Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Around the Horn Baz's MLB 2004

Today's Picks:


(1) San Francisco (Schmidt)-180 Over Colorado(Cook) for 3/4 Unit.

Schmidt has been extremely tough on the Rockies this season.
Allowing only 3 hits his last 15 innings against them.
Going 2-0 with a 1.71 Era (4 Er's in 21.0 innings) this season vs. Colorado
Going 10-2 with 3.43 Era (41 Er's in 107.2 innings) Lifetime vs. Colorado.
Allowing only 9 Er's his in his last 8 outings vs. Colorado
He's has struck out at least 9 in 9 of 17 starts this season.
Has a Quality Start record of 13-4 (6 innings)


San Francisco has hit .313 and averaged 5.75 runs their last 10 vs. Righties.

Cook 2-2 with 6.55 Era (24 Er's in 33.0 innings) Lifetime vs. SF
Cook 1-1 with 11.57 Era (12 Er's in 9.1 innings) This Season vs. SF
Cook 4-3 with 5.20 Era (37 Er's in 64.0 innings) This Season Overall
COok 10-10 with 5.55 Era(138 Er's in 223.2 innings) Lifetime (MLB)

Colorado only 24-44 vs. Righties


(2) Los Angeles (O.Perez) -145 Over Arizona (Fossum) for 3/4 Unit


Los Angeles on 13-3 SU run
Arizona on 4-21 SU run

Bull Pens:
Los Angeles 2.29 Era (9 Er's their last 35.1 innings)
Arizona 6.23 Era (27 Er's their last 39.0 innings)

Los Angeles 9-2 in Series This Season

Perez 12-4 Quality Start record
Has gone at least 5 innings 16 times and allowed 3 or less 14 times.
Has allowed 2 or less 9 of 16 starts.
4-5 with 3.08 Era (25 Er's in 73 innings) Lifetime vs. Arizona

Arizona 2-10 in Fossum starts with 6.27 Era
Fossum 0-3 with 5.50 Era (11 Er's in 18 innings) Lifetime vs. LA

Arizona 6-24 vs. Lefties this Season
Arizona 2-11 vs. Lefties at Home this Season


(3) Parlaying for a 1/5 Unit(20):
SF (Schmidt)-181 Over Colorado(Cook)
with
Los Angeles (O.Perez) -145 Over Arizona(Fossum)


Great to be back,
Good luck today,

baz
<img border="0" title="" alt="[Smile]" src="images/icons/smile.gif" />

Playing conservatively today.

1/4 Unit Per Pick(25)


(1)Seattle(Moyer)-137 Over Cleveland(Elarton)
(2)Cleveland(Elarton)/Seattle(Moyer) Over 8.5{-110}

Elarton(2-12 Quality Start record)
Elarton 36-35 with 5.39 Era MLB Lifetime record

Moyer(8-10 Quality Start record)
Moyer 9-7 with 3.98 Era(67 Er's in 151.2 innings)
Moyer 8-1 SU last 9 Starts vs. Cleveland (11 Er's/60.0 innings for a 1.65 Era)

Pens:
Cleveland 41 Er's their last 42.0 innings
Seattle 15 Er's in 22.2 innings

Cleveland 13-19 vs. Lefties Overall
Cleveland 6-10 vs. Lefties Away


----------------------------------------------------------------
(3)New York Yankees (Lieber)-145 Over Detroit(Robertson)
(4)New York Yankees(Lieber)/Detroit(Robertson) Under 10.5 {-115}

New York Yankees 22-6 vs. Lefties This Year
New York Yankees 48-11 vs. Lefties The Last 2 Years.

New York Yankees hitting .327 vs. Lefties their last 10.
New York Yankees on 6-1 SU run.

Under is 7-2 in Joyce's last nine BHP.
Under is 5-2 in Lieber's last seven starts.
Under is 6-1 in Yanks last seven overall.
Tigers last seven overall have played under.
Under is 12-5-1 in the last 18 meetings.

----------------------------------------------------------------

(5) Oakland(Mulder)-145 Over ChicagoWhiteSoxs(Loaiza)

Loaiza 8-10 Quality Start record (currently on a 1-5 QS run)
Loaiza has given up 16 Er's his last 17.1 innings with 2.08 WHIP

Mulder 13-5 Quality Start record
Mulder 11-1 SU his last 12 Starts
Oakland 13-5 in Mulder Starts
Oakland 25-6 at Home their last 31

Chicago 10-16 vs. Lefties This Season
Chicago 4-9 vs. Lefties Away This Season

Oakland 33-31 vs. Righties Overall This Season
Oakland 18-11 vs. Righties 18-11 At Home

-------------------------------------------------------------------

(6) New York Mets(Leiter)-145 Over Philadelphia(Myers)

Myers 5-6 with 5.68 Era (57 Er's in 90.1 innings)
Myers has allowed 19 Er's his last 13 innings with a 2.15 WHIP
Myers 4-12 Quality Start record
Myers 0-2 with 7.50 Era(10 Er's in 12.0 innings) vs. Mets This Season
Myers 3-3 with 6.26 Era (29 Er's in 41.2 innings) vs. Mets Lifetime

Leiter 5-3 with 2.40 Era (23 Er's in 86.1 innings) Overall This Season
Leiter 9-5 with 3.75 Era(61 Er's in 136.2 innings) Lifetime vs. Philadelphia
Leiter 1-0 with 0.75 Era (1 Er in 12.0 innings) This Season vs. Philadelphia
Leiter 7-8 Quality Start record this Season, however he's only allowed
2 Er's or less in 11 of 15 Starts!
Leiter has allowed 5 Er's in his last 17 innings.

Mets 16-8 their last 24 Home games.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

thanks and best of luck today,

baz
<img border="0" title="" alt="[Smile]" src="images/icons/smile.gif" />

Cisco,

I had calculated my win/loss record just
before going off line last month.
I just have to find the paper I wrote down
the results on. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Frown]" src="images/icons/frown.gif" />
I am currently +286.36 for the Season.

This based on $100 = 1 Unit.
So I'm only up +2.86 Units.

Bascially I believe that one's bankroll should
be divided by 40 or 2.5% per Bet(Unit) in order
to withstand the inevitable slumps that occur.

I'll be posting more later this week.

best of luck wagering this season,

baz
<img border="0" title="" alt="[Smile]" src="images/icons/smile.gif" />

3/4 Unit:
Oakland (Zito)-139 Over Seattle(Blackley)

1/4 Unit:
Oakland(Zito)-139 Over Seattle(Blackley)
with
Boston(Martinez)-1.5 runs(Best Price) Over Baltimore(Bedard)

thanks and good luck,

baz

Parlaying the following to Houston(Oswalt)-188 Over Arizona(Gonzalez) for 1/4 Unit Each:
Will be hedging off with Arizona +170 or perhaps better by gametime.
(1)New York Yankees(Hernadez)-172 Over Toronto(Lilly)
(2)Atlanta(Ortiz)-169 Over Pittsburgh(Wells)
(3)New York Mets(Glavine)-163 Over Montreal(Day)


Betting 1 Unit on the following:
(2)Los Angeles(O.Perez)-172 Over Colorado(Cook)
(3)San Francisco(Schmidt)-172 Over SanDiego(Wells)

Will be adding Boston(Wakefield)Over Baltimore(Borkowski) if Boston loses first game.

Will post hedging plays 1/2 hour or better before game goes off.

thanks and good luck today,

baz

<small>[ July 22, 2004, 12:03 PM: Message edited by: bazanster2 ]</small>

Pitching Change: Motreal has replaced Armas with Day.

Still will take New York

Decided not to hedge the Houston game. Just going to let the parlay's ride.

Just a small parlay for a 1/4 Unit:

Boston(Wakefield)-178 Over Baltimore(Borkowski)
with
Oakland(Redman)-120 Over Seattle(Franklin)

good luck,

baz

1/4 Unit Per Play:
Texas(Rogers)/Oakland(Mulder) Under 8.na(Capuano)
KansasCity(Wood)/Cleveland(Elarton) Over 10.na(Capuano)

thank you and best of luck,

baz

<small>[ July 23, 2004, 02:07 PM: Message edited by: bazanster2 ]</small>

One Unit Each:
Florida(Willis)-148 Over Montreal(Biddle)
Willis 4-1 with 2.60 Era (8 Er's in 27.2 innings) vs. Montreal Lifetime
Biddle 1-4 with 6.70 Era(33 Er's and 19 BB's in 44.1 innings) This Season
Biddle 0-2 with 9.72 Era(9 Er's in 8.1 innings) Lifetime vs. Florida

ChicagoWhiteSox's(Schoeneweis)-115 Over Detroit(J.Johnson)
Detroit 13-26 vs. Lefties, 5-14 vs. Lefties Away This Season
Detroit 25-65 vs. Lefties Last 90
Detroit 10-37 vs. Lefties the last 47 Away
Chicago WhiteSox's 22-10 At Home vs. Righties, 38-25 Overall.

Kansas City(B.Anderson)/Cleveland(Durbin) Over 10 {-120} @ WSEX

For 1/2 Unit:
Florida(Willis)/Montreal(Biddle) Under 8

good luck today,

baz

One Unit:

San Diego(Peavy)-155 Over San Francisco(Rueter)

Parlay for One Unit:
New York Yankees(Vazquez) -220 Over Toronto (Douglas)
with
Oakland(Zito) -199 Over Seattle(Blackley)


good luck,

baz

1 Unit Each:
(1)Chicago White Sox(Garcia)-115 Over Minnesota(Santana)
(2)Philadelphia(Wolf)/Florida(Pavano) Over 8 {-106}
(3)Cleveland(Sabathia)-166 Over Detroit(Knotts)



Parlaying Each Individually to:
Houston(Oswalt)-280 Over Arizona(Gonzalez) for1/5 Unit Each.

(1) New York Yankees(Hernadez)/Toronto(Lilly) Under 9.5
(2) New York Yankees(Hernadez)-140 Over Toronto(Lilly)

good luck today,

baz

Taking Runline for 1/2 Unit:

(1) Boston(Schilling)-1.5 Over Baltimore(Borkowski)
(2) Houston(Clemens)-1.5 Over Arizona(Fossum)

--------------------------------------------------------
Parlay's for 1/4 Unit Each:

(3) Boston(Schilling)-220 Over Baltimore(Borkowski)
with
Oakland(Mulder)-200 Over Seattle(Moyer)
---------------------------------------------------------

(4) Houston(Clemens)-300 Over Arizona(Fossum)
with
St.Louis(Suppan)-156 Over Cincinnati(Acevedo)

---------------------------------------------------------


Straight Bets for 1/4 Unit:

St.Louis(Suppan)/Cincinnati(Acevedo) Over 10{-120}

---------------------------------------------------------


Fun Parlay for just 10:
Detroit(Robertson)-103 Over Cleveland(Elarton)
with
Boston(Schilling)-220 Over Baltimore(Borkowski)
with
Houston(Clemens)-300 Over Arizona(Fossum)

------------------------------------------------------------

good luck today,

baz

4/5 of a Unit wager:

(1) Flordia(Willis)-150 Over Philadephia(Abbott)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

1/4 Unit Each:

(2) Florida(Willis) -150 Over Philadelphia(Abbott)
with
New York Yankees(Contreras)-200 Over Baltimore(Ponson)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

(3) New YorkYankees(Contreras)/Baltimore(Ponson) Over 10.5

good luck today,

baz

1/2 Unit Each:

(1)Anaheim(Ortiz)-191 Over Seattle(Meche)
(2)San Diego(Eaton)-137 Over Los Angeles(Weaver)

1/4 Unit:
(3)Cleveland(Westbrook)-155 Over KansasCity(Anderson)
(4)New York Yankees(Brown)-187 Over Baltimore(Cabrera)

======================================================

Seattle @ Anahiem:

Seattle 2-8 when Meche starts.
Meche 1-6 with 7.06 Era(34Er's in 43.1 innings) This Season
Meche 1-1 with 4.32 Era(20 Er's in 41.2 innings) Career vs. Anaheim

Ortiz 3-6 with 4.07 Era(33 Er's in 73.0 innings) This Season
Ortiz 5-7 with 3.61 Era(36 Er's in 89.2 innings) Career vs. Seattle
Ortiz 0-1 with 4.97 Era( 7 Er's in 12.2 inning) This Season vs. Seattle

Difference between the Starters in their last 3 starts:
Meche 0-2 with 11.12 Era(14 Er's in 11.1 innings) encluding 9 BB's and 2.38 WHIP
Ortiz 1-1 with 1.96 Era(4 Er's in 18.1 innings)

Meche 1-3 with 7.78 Era(17 Er's in 19.2 innings)Away.
Ortiz 1-2 with 3.15 Era (14 Er's in 40.0 innings) At Home.

Another negative factor is that Meche is 0-5 with 8.80 Era(30 Er/30.2 innings) At Night.

Seattle 13-35 Away.

======================================================

Baltimore @ New York Yankees:

New York Yankees 23-13 After a Loss.
New York Yankees 35-12 At Home
New York Yankees 8-2 In Series.

=====================================================

Los Angeles @ San Diego:
Eaton 6-1 with 1.93 Era(20 Er's in 91.2 innings) Career vs. LA
Eaton 2-0 with 1.23 Era(3 Er's in 22.0 innings) This Season vs. LA

=====================================================

thanks and good luck today,

baz

For 1 Unit:

(1) Atlanta(Wright)-149 Over New York Mets(Benson)

---------------------------------------------------------------


Parlay for 1/4 Unit:

(2) New York Yankees(Vazquez)-229 Over Baltimore(Bedard)
with
Colorado(Estes)-136 Over Arizona(Webb)

If New York Yankees win, would place a Hedge of $12.50 on Arizona(Webb) @ +130 or better.

good luck today,

baz

<small>[ July 31, 2004, 10:49 AM: Message edited by: bazanster2 ]</small>

Parlaying the following for 4/5 of a Unit:

ChicagoCubs(Maddux)-154 Over Philadelphia(Wolf)
with
San Francisco(Schmidt)-141 Over St.Louis(W.Williams)

Will be hedging off this play. Will post hedge as soon as
Cub game Over.

----------------------------------------------------------

1/4 Unit Parlay:

(2) Florida(Pavano)-164 Over Montreal(Day)
with
Colorado(Cook)-200 Over Arizona(Gonzalez)

---------------------------------------------------------

1/4 Unit:
(3) Anaheim(Colon) -1.5 runs Over Seattle(Franklin)

--------------------------------------------------------

thanks and good luck,

baz

Late Hedge:

65 on St.Louis(Williams)+142 Over San Francisco(Schmidt)

good luck,

baz

Parlaying the following for 1/2 Unit:

Boston(Schilling)-210 Over TampaBay(Bell)

with

(1) Toronto(Batista)-152 Over Cleveland(Elarton)
(2) Florida(Willis)-187 Over Arizona(Fossum)

-------------------------------------------------------

1 Unit Straight Wager:

(3)New York Yankees(Lieber)-105 Over Oakland(Mulder)

------------------------------------------------------

Team Wager for 1/4 Unit:

(4)Seattle(Villone)+140 Over Baltimore(Ponson)
with
St.Louis(Marquis)-200 Over Montreal(Armas)

-----------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------

A Few Notes:


Toronto (Batista)-152 Over Cleveland(Elarton)

Elarton on 3-14 Quality Start run
Elarton 3-6 Quality Start This Season
Elarton has allowed 12 Er's in 15.0 innings Away This Season
Batista 14-8 Quality Start This Season

Cleveland Bullpen 24 Er's the last 31.0 innings
Toronto Bullpen 12 Er's the last 28.0 innings


------------------------------------------------------

New York Yankees(Lieber)-105 Over Oakland(Mulder)

Mulder 15-6 Quality Start record This Season.
Mulder 3-3 Quality Start run last 6 Starts.

Mulder 11 Er's in 12.1 innings vs. NY This Season
Mulder 42 Er's in 56.0 innings Lifetime vs. Yankees

Oakland 23-30 Away
New York 38-13 At Home

New York 16-3 vs. Lefties At Home
New York 25-7 vs. Lefties THis Season
New York 31-7 vs. Lefties At Home This and Last Season
New York 51-18 vs. Lefties Overall This and Last Season
Oakland 18-21 Away vs. Righties

The Yankees have hit .322 vs. Mulder Lifetime and .377 this season.

-----------------------------------------------------

good luck today,

baz

<small>[ August 03, 2004, 04:52 AM: Message edited by: bazanster2 ]</small>

Adding for a 1/4 Unit:

San Diego(Lawerence) -132 Over Philadelphia(Myers)

thanks,

baz

1 Unit Each:

ChicagoCubs(Zambrano)-155 Over Colorado(Wright)
Los Angeles(Lima)-160 Over Pittsburgh(Fogg)
Baltimore(Cabrera)-188 Over Seattle(Meche)

good luck today,

baz