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#451170 - 10/07/19 08:26 PM 10/10 Statistical Advantages
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#451230 - 10/08/19 09:14 PM Re: 10/10 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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LA MONROE (2 - 3) at TEXAS ST (2 - 3) - 10/10/2019, 9:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA MONROE is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

SYRACUSE (3 - 2) at NC STATE (3 - 2) - 10/10/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 1-1 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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#451231 - 10/08/19 09:14 PM Re: 10/10 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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NY GIANTS (2 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 0) - 10/10/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 265-202 ATS (+42.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 265-202 ATS (+42.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 196-148 ATS (+33.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-86 ATS (+31.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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#451338 - 10/09/19 09:33 PM Re: 10/10 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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TAMPA BAY (99 - 68) at HOUSTON (109 - 57) - 7:07 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. GERRIT COLE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 189-140 (+26.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 25-13 (+12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 80-67 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 129-95 (+20.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 117-70 (+30.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 79-72 (+21.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 22-14 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 7-10 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
HOUSTON is 70-46 (-10.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 32-25 (-10.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 90-73 (-20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 46-40 (-17.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 6-5 (+3.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)
TYLER GLASNOW vs. HOUSTON since 1997
GLASNOW is 1-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.3 units)
GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 1-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 0.990.
His team's record is 3-2 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.8 units)
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#451400 - 10/10/19 11:39 AM Re: 10/10 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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DETROIT (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) at MONTREAL (1-0-0-2, 4 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 317-294 ATS (-113.7 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DETROIT is 460-361 ATS (-138.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
DETROIT is 17-15 ATS (+38.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 8-0 (+8.3 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 8-0-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.8 Units)

EDMONTON (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (0-2-0-1, 1 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 89-71 ATS (-0.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
NEW JERSEY is 9-31 ATS (+50.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 2-2 (+1.7 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 2-2-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.8 Units)

TAMPA BAY (1-1-0-1, 3 pts.) at TORONTO (2-1-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 63-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 32-11 ATS (+13.8 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 22-6 ATS (+11.9 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 23-21 ATS (-8.3 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 100-109 ATS (-47.8 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
TORONTO is 408-418 ATS (-36.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 6-2 (+3.5 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 6-2-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

ANAHEIM (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (1-2-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 2-14 ATS (+16.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 260-215 ATS (+31.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
PITTSBURGH is 45-44 ATS (-3.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 3-1 (+3.1 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 3-1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

ST LOUIS (2-0-0-1, 5 pts.) at OTTAWA (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 51-60 ATS (+150.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 129-104 ATS (+235.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 284-202 ATS (+29.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
OTTAWA is 115-104 ATS (-15.9 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-1 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 3-1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.0 Units)

WASHINGTON (2-0-0-2, 6 pts.) at NASHVILLE (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 119-81 ATS (+15.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 28-16 ATS (+44.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 14-6 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 64-47 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 4-0 (+4.1 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 4-0-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.0 Units)

MINNESOTA (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) at WINNIPEG (2-2-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 37-47 ATS (-19.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 7-7 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 7-7-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.4 Units)

SAN JOSE (0-4-0-0, 0 pts.) at CHICAGO (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 21-24 ATS (-13.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 373-378 ATS (+756.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CHICAGO is 104-93 ATS (-61.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 4-2 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 4-2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.0 Units)

CALGARY (1-1-0-1, 3 pts.) at DALLAS (1-3-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 27-39 ATS (-18.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-0 (+7.3 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-0-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.6 Units)

BOSTON (3-0-0-0, 6 pts.) at COLORADO (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 192-169 ATS (+362.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 219-170 ATS (+48.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
BOSTON is 63-52 ATS (+119.9 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
BOSTON is 220-244 ATS (+521.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
COLORADO is 0-8 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 13-23 ATS (+38.6 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 3-1 (+2.7 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 3-1-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

VEGAS (2-1-0-0, 4 pts.) at ARIZONA (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/10/2019, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 51-31 ATS (+15.4 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 26-56 ATS (-33.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 6-3-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.5 Units)
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#451401 - 10/10/19 11:43 AM Re: 10/10 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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8:20 p.m. ET: New York Giants (2-3) at New England Patriots (5-0)
Talk about a Thursday night mismatch. The Giants are coming off a 28-10 loss to the Vikings at home and now must travel to New England to face the mighty Patriots. New York has a -28 point differential compared to the Pats' league-best +121. Bill Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks over the years and now Daniel Jones must face a New England defense that ranks #1 overall in points allowed (just 6.8 per game). Even worse, the G-Men will be missing several offensive weapons to injury, including Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Wayne Gallman and Sterling Shepard.

This line opened with the Patriots listed as big 15.5-point home favorites-- the highest spread for a Thursday Night game since it began in 2006. Three-out-of-four bets are laying the spread with the Pats. This heavy support has pushed the line up to 17. The Giants have value as a contrarian dog getting big points in a heavily bet game. But Thursday Night home favorites are 70-47 ATS (59.8%, +20.08 units won) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports. Also, no one's ever gotten rich betting against the Belichick and Brady. The combo has gone an absurd 144-90 ATS (61.5%, +50.11 units won) since 2003. It's also been profitable to back huge Thursday Night favorites -13 or more. They're 7-1 ATS since 2003.

Sharps prefer the total in this game. They are pounding the Under. It opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 41 or even 40.5. We're seeing some awful weather at Gillette Stadium. The forecast calls for nearly 20 mph winds, low 50s and rain. When the wind blows at 10 mph or more the under has cashed at a 55.8% clip (+66.21 units) since 2003. Another edge to the Under: Brad Allen is the lead official. The Under has hit at a 56.3% rate with Allen as the head ref since 2003. Allen also favors home teams (55.8% ATS).

MLB

7:07 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
The Rays came up huge for contrarian bettors Tuesday night, cashing as +205 dogs in a 4-1 win at home to stave off elimination and force this winner-take-all Game 5 in Houston. Tampa sends Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) to the mound to face the electric Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA). Glasnow gave up 2-earned runs in 4.2 innings pitched in a 6-2 Game 1 loss to Houston. Cole went 7.2 innings and struck out 15 Rays in a 3-1 Game 2 win. The home team has won all four games in this series.

This line opened with Houston listed as a massive -260 home favorite and Tampa a +236 dog. The -260 line is the highest for a favorite in an ALDS or NLCS game since 2005. This line has ticked up slightly to Astros -265 or -270. It's tough to lay such a massive number in a playoff game, especially when the value had lied with the dog historically. It seems like a layup Astros win but the Rays have value based on their massive payout and the fact they're a postseason dog, on the road and coming off a win. These have been the best buy-low spots in the playoffs. Since 2005, playoff dogs off a win have cashed at a 46.4% clip with +16.74 units won (7.5% ROI). The home plate umpire also favors the Rays. Home teams have lost -22.66 units with Jerry Meals behind the plate since 2005.

The total opened at 7. The public expects a low-scoring game and two-thirds of bets are taking the under. However, the juice remains heavy to the over at -120. Meals is an "over" ump as unders have lost -28.65 units since 2005 when he calls balls and strikes.

NCAAF

8 p.m. ET: Syracuse (3-2) at NC State (3-2)
This primetime ACC showdown pits two unranked 3-2 teams against each other. Syracuse has bounced back with two-straight wins after starting the season 1-2. NC State started 2-0 but has last two of their last three, including a 31-13 loss to Florida State last week as a 7-point dog. Both teams put points on the board, as 'Cuse averages 28.6 PPG on offense and NC State 29.8 PPG. The difference has been their defense. The Orange are allowing 28 PPG compared to the Wolfpack allowing just 20.8 PPG.

This line opened with NC State listed as 3-point home favorites. Spread bets are relatively split with a slight majority backing the Orange, largely due to recency bias. However, we've seen this line jump to NC State -4.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all, aside from a slight juice adjustment, if the tickets are even. Books move lines based on smart money coming from professional bettors with an edge. So we know this line move was caused by wiseguys backing the Wolfpack.

The total opened at 58. Pro money has gotten down on the under, forcing bookmakers to drop the total down to 56. Conference games provide a built in edge to the under as the familiarity and rivalry aspect benefits the defense and leads to tighter, lower-scoring games. Conference Unders have gone 65-55 (54%) this season and have now won +41.57 units since 2005. Also, Thursday Night Unders have crushed historically. They're 14-6 (70%) this season and 56% (+44.92 units) since 2005.
9:15 p.m. ET: UL Monroe (2-3) at Texas State (2-3)
Both of these Sun Belt teams are 2-3 and have been putrid against the spread (UL Monroe 1-4 and Texas State 1-3-1). However, they are trending in different directions. After winning their season opener, UL Monroe has lost three-of-four including a 52-33 drubbing last week against Memphis as 15-point dogs. Meanwhile, Texas State started off 0-3 but has won two in a row. Texas State also enjoys extra rest. The Bobcats last played on September 28th, while UL Monroe last played Saturday October 5th.

This line opened with UL Monroe listed as a short 3-point road favorite. Roughly six-out-of-ten bets are laying the points with UL Monroe, yet this line remains mostly frozen at 3, signaling sharp liability on the home dog. Anytime it has ticked up to 3.5 pros have gobbled up Texas State plus the hook (+3.5).

Wiseguys also like the under in this game. The total opened at 62 and has been bet down to 61. The under fits the Thursday night trend, the conference under trend and the forecast calls for roughly 15 MPH winds. The under has cashed at a 56% clip since 2005 when the wind blows at 10 MPH or more.

WNBA

8 p.m. ET: Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics
The stakes couldn't be higher for this WNBA Finals decisive Game 5. The winner hoists the championship, the loser is left heartbroken. The Sun finished the regular season 23-11 and the Mystics a league-best 26-8. Both teams have rotated victories through four games. On Tuesday the Sun won 90-87 to force this final Game 5.
The line opened with Washington listed as a 7-point home favorite. Smart money has come down on the road dog Sun +7, forcing books to drop the line down to 6.5. The total opened at 175. Overs have been a smart bet in the WNBA playoffs, going 10-4 (71%) this postseason. Playoffs overs are now 74-54 (58%) since 2005. The over has cashed in all four games this series.
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