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#448069 - 09/09/19 10:12 PM 9/15 Statistical Advantages
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Welcome to Statistical Advantages at Freaks Forum

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#448136 - 09/11/19 12:40 AM Re: 9/15 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
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Registered: 12/01/00
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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 0) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 118-153 ATS (-50.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS (1 - 0) at DETROIT (0 - 0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 126-92 ATS (+24.8 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 126-92 ATS (+24.8 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 101-72 ATS (+21.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in dome games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BUFFALO (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ARIZONA (0 - 0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (1 - 0) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at MIAMI (0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 263-200 ATS (+43.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 263-200 ATS (+43.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 125-94 ATS (+21.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 125-94 ATS (+21.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 203-146 ATS (+42.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 194-146 ATS (+33.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 75-102 ATS (-37.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS (1 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) at HOUSTON (0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

SEATTLE (1 - 0) vs. PITTSBURGH (0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 108-79 ATS (+21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MINNESOTA (1 - 0) at GREEN BAY (1 - 0) - 9/15/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 193-139 ATS (+40.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) at OAKLAND (1 - 0) - 9/15/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEW ORLEANS (1 - 0) at LA RAMS (1 - 0) - 9/15/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 194-240 ATS (-70.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 194-240 ATS (-70.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 140-189 ATS (-67.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 148-190 ATS (-61.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 69-103 ATS (-44.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 2-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CHICAGO (0 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 1) - 9/15/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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#448628 - 09/15/19 08:54 AM Re: 9/15 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
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MIAMI (52 - 96) at SAN FRANCISCO (71 - 78) - 4:05 PM
ELIESER HERNANDEZ (R) vs. JOHNNY CUETO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 71-78 (+6.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-24 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 53-53 (+7.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 40-37 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-30 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-25 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 (+2.2 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)
ELIESER HERNANDEZ vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
No recent starts.
JOHNNY CUETO vs. MIAMI since 1997
CUETO is 4-2 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.474.
His team's record is 7-3 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-2. (+6.5 units)

CINCINNATI (69 - 80) at ARIZONA (76 - 73) - 4:10 PM
TREVOR BAUER (R) vs. ZAC GALLEN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 69-80 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 29-45 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CINCINNATI is 19-38 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ARIZONA is 76-73 (+3.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 43-32 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ARIZONA is 38-41 (-21.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 943-847 (-110.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 269-269 (-68.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997.
ARIZONA is 14-26 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 50-53 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 (+1.4 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)
TREVOR BAUER vs. ARIZONA since 1997
BAUER is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 3.95 and a WHIP of 0.951.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)
ZAC GALLEN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

NY YANKEES (98 - 52) at TORONTO (58 - 91) - 1:07 PM
NESTOR CORTES (L) vs. TRENT THORNTON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-9 (+1.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.3 Units)
NESTOR CORTES vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.
TRENT THORNTON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
THORNTON is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.28 and a WHIP of 1.465.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

BALTIMORE (48 - 100) at DETROIT (44 - 103) - 1:10 PM
ASHER WOJCIECHOWSKI (R) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 95-215 (-72.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 2-10 (-11.1 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 44-110 (-32.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-50 (-25.6 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 55-144 (-62.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 66-146 (-44.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 45-80 (-28.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-21 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSON is 17-12 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 44-102 (-35.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 4-18 (-12.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 this season.
DETROIT is 10-20 (-10.6 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
DETROIT is 20-52 (-27.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
DETROIT is 32-80 (-31.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 4-18 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
DETROIT is 92-136 (-37.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 40-69 (-26.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 (+0.9 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)
ASHER WOJCIECHOWSKI vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.
EDWIN JACKSON vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
JACKSON is 6-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.069.
His team's record is 6-3 (+2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.5 units)

MINNESOTA (91 - 57) at CLEVELAND (86 - 63) - 1:10 PM
JOSE BERRIOS (R) vs. SHANE BIEBER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 91-57 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 (+11.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
MINNESOTA is 50-24 (+26.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 400-403 (+53.6 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 74-40 (+24.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 409-450 (+29.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 17-13 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVELAND is 177-137 (-28.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 20-26 (-19.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 92-64 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 124-96 (-21.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 57-68 (-26.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 25-35 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 9-9 (+0.3 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
12 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.7 Units)
JOSE BERRIOS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
BERRIOS is 5-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.016.
His team's record is 6-5 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-5. (+0.7 units)
SHANE BIEBER vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
BIEBER is 3-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.289.
His team's record is 5-1 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.3 units)

HOUSTON (97 - 53) at KANSAS CITY (55 - 94) - 2:15 PM
WADE MILEY (L) vs. JAKE JUNIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 39-33 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 64-43 (-10.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 22-18 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 100-53 (+27.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
MILEY is 35-15 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILEY is 12-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 55-94 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 4-17 (-13.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 21-42 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-32 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 (+1.7 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)
WADE MILEY vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
MILEY is 4-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.297.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.2 units)
JAKE JUNIS vs. HOUSTON since 1997
JUNIS is 0-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 11.30 and a WHIP of 2.163.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-3. (-3.3 units)

OAKLAND (89 - 60) at TEXAS (74 - 76) - 3:05 PM
SEAN MANAEA (L) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 10-5 (+3.1 Units) against TEXAS this season
10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.6 Units)
SEAN MANAEA vs. TEXAS since 1997
MANAEA is 4-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.130.
His team's record is 6-3 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-5. (-1.4 units)
LANCE LYNN vs. OAKLAND since 1997
LYNN is 1-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 6.46 and a WHIP of 1.566.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

TAMPA BAY (89 - 61) at LA ANGELS (67 - 82) - 4:07 PM
RYAN YARBROUGH (L) vs. PATRICK SANDOVAL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 99-79 (+20.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 179-133 (+25.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 85-71 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 18-5 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season.
TAMPA BAY is 72-50 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 30-19 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 111-66 (+30.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 67-82 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA ANGELS are 35-37 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA ANGELS are 19-30 (-14.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
LA ANGELS are 32-50 (-20.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LA ANGELS are 29-51 (-17.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA ANGELS are 29-59 (-24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-2 (+0.6 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)
RYAN YARBROUGH vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
YARBROUGH is 0-1 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 7.50 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
PATRICK SANDOVAL vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHI WHITE SOX (65 - 82) at SEATTLE (61 - 88) - 4:10 PM
IVAN NOVA (R) vs. JUSTUS SHEFFIELD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NOVA is 6-17 (-11.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 103-105 (+1.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 35-24 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 65-83 (+4.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 26-23 (+13.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 37-44 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
NOVA is 15-8 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NOVA is 11-6 (+13.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 14-24 (-10.7 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
SEATTLE is 975-893 (-126.2 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
SEATTLE is 482-467 (-106.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997.
SEATTLE is 428-382 (-70.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 (+0.5 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)
IVAN NOVA vs. SEATTLE since 1997
NOVA is 0-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 6.87 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.

BOSTON (78 - 70) at PHILADELPHIA (76 - 71) - 1:05 PM
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. JASON VARGAS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 78-70 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 22-25 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
BOSTON is 20-27 (-17.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 42-35 (-15.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 26-39 (-21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 11-20 (-12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 191-121 (+46.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 60-47 (+6.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 890-937 (+19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 466-468 (+51.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
VARGAS is 46-27 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 100-62 (+27.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 17-5 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 (+1.3 Units) against BOSTON this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)
RICK PORCELLO vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
PORCELLO is 2-2 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.233.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)
JASON VARGAS vs. BOSTON since 1997
VARGAS is 3-3 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.48 and a WHIP of 1.278.
His team's record is 4-4 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-6. (-5.5 units)
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#448629 - 09/15/19 08:56 AM Re: 9/15 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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Week 2 of the NFL is also about recency bias and public overreaction. Because the season is so young, casual bettors only have Week 1 to go off of when forming their opinions and deciding who to take. If a team won and looked great in their opener, casual bettors will back them. If a team lost and looked awful, Average Joes will automatically fade them. The sportsbooks set lines with this public bias in mind, which creates a great opportunity for value-driven wiseguys to buy low, sell high and take advantage of inflated and mispriced lines.

For example, teams coming off a loss have gone 50.5% ATS, losing 50.94 units since 2003 according to Bet Labs sports. But teams off a win have gone 49.5% ATS and lost 106.35 units. Both are losing bets, but teams off a win have lost twice as many units as teams coming off a loss, which speaks to how overvalued they are in the long run.

The key is focusing on teams who not only lost but got blown out. These teams are the most valuable because the public dismisses them outright and sharps can get extra points based on public bettors inflating lines. Since 2003, teams coming off a 16-point loss or more have covered at a 52.4% rate (+20.34 units, 1.8% ROI). Teams coming off a 20-point loss or more are 54.3% ATS (+42.71 units, 5.4% ROI). Teams coming off a 30-point loss or more are 56% ATS (+18.13 units, 8.6% ROI). The bigger the blowout, the more profitable they become.

Moral of the story: these teams look disgusting and you think they can't possible cover. But they're the smart play historically.

Here are the Week 2 "off a blowout" matches

Steelers (lost by 30 in Week 1)
Dolphins (lost by 49)
Giants (lost by 18)
Falcons (lost by 16)
Browns (lost by 30)

We have a stacked Sunday slate with 14 games to choose from. Here are six of the most notable matchups getting pummeled with big sharp action.

1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0-1)
The Chargers escaped Week 1 with a 30-24 overtime victory over the Colts. The Lions, on the other hand, coughed up a big 4th-quarter lead and ended up tying the Cardinals 27-27. On paper, Los Angeles is a much better team and the public sees an easy cover. But sharps have targeted Detroit as one of their favorite plays of the day. This line opened with the Chargers listed as 3-point road favorites. Roughly seven-out-of-ten bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Los Angeles, yet we've seen the line tumble to 2 or 1.5. Some books have even touched 1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with wiseguys betting big money on the Lions (ideally at the key number of +3), causing the line to move bigly in their favor. The Chargers are a West Coast team traveling East for an early 1 p.m. ET game, a tough spot to be in historically. Sharps have largely bypassed the total. It opened at 47 and hasn't moved since.

1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)
The Bills trailed 16-0 late in their Week 1 opener against the Jets but roared back to win 17-16, covering and winning outright as 2.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants got demolished in Dallas, 35-17. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Despite a slight majority of tickets backing the Bills, we've seen this line fall to 1.5, signaling smart money grabbing the points with the Giants. Some Bills buyback brought it back up to 2 where it rests now. The really interesting play here is on the total. The line opened at a low 42.5. Buffalo and New York combined to score 34-total points in Week 1. As a result, the public sees an easy under with two low-scoring teams. However, the total has actually risen two points to 44.5, clear evidence that wiseguys are sweating a rare contrarian over.

1 p.m. ET: New England Patriots (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)
You couldn't ask for a bigger David vs. Goliath matchup than this AFC East matchup in South Beach. The Patriots just destroyed the Steelers 33-3 while Miami got embarrassed at home 59-10. To put into perspective how unevenly matched these teams are, Circa Sports is hanging a prop on the Patriots to go 16-0 (Yes +2100, No -4000) and the Dolphins to go 0-16 (Yes +555, No -900). The Pats are currently +410 favorites to win the Super Bowl and Tom Brady has moved from +2500 to +700 to win MVP. This line opened with New England listed as a massive 18.5-point favorite, the biggest spread since 2013 when the Broncos were 27-point favorites against the Jaguars. Sharp bettors sat back and let heavy public betting push the Pats up to -19 or even -19.5 or -20 at some books. That's when pros got down hard on the Dolphins in a huge value spot, causing the line to fall back down to 18.5. It looks gross, but there are reasons to like Miami. The Dolphins are a divisional dog coming off a blowout and the Pats typically struggle in the Miami heat. The total has risen from 47.5 to 48.5. But some sharps will be sweating the under. The wind is expected to blow at 10 to 12 MPH. Since 2003, when the wind is blowing 10 MPH or more in a division game the under has cashed at a 59.8% clip with a 15.9% ROI.

1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)
Both of these NFC North rivals were victorious in Week 1, with the Vikings beating the Falcons 28-12 as 3.5-point favorites and the Packers upsetting the Bears 10-3 as 3-point dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is torn because they love the idea of getting the Vikings as a dog but they also can't pass up backing Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field. However, despite tickets being relatively even, the line has fallen from Green Bay -3 to -2.5 and even briefly touched -2 at times. This is a dead giveaway that sharps pounced on the divisional dog Vikings at the key number of +3, causing the line to move in their favor. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. Pros have also gotten down on the under. The total opened at 45.5 and has fallen to 43 behind big smart money. One overlooked reason to like the under: John Hussey is the lead official. Since 2003, the under has cashed at a 61% clip with Hussey as the lead ref according to Bet Labs Sports. Also, the under has won 56% of the time since 2003 when the line falls at least one point in a divisional game.

4:05 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-0)
The Chiefs took care of business in Week 1, dismissing the Jags 40-26 as 3.5-point favorites. Oakland played like a team who was liberated after getting rid of drama-filled Antonio Brown, upsetting the Broncos 24-16 as 3-point dogs. However, the Chiefs still have the 2nd-best Super Bowl odds (+625) and are led by Patrick Mahomes (+525 favorite to win MVP) so no matter what the spread is, the public is dying to back Kansas City. But sharps are buying low on Oakland in an undervalued contrarian, divisional home dog spot. This line opened at Chiefs -9.5 and we've seen it fall all the way to -7. Why would oddsmakers drop the line and make it easier for Average Joes to cover with KC when they're already on them to begin with? Because pros crushed Oakland at +7.5 (gotta have the hook) or higher, setting off big reverse line movement in favor of the Raiders. Another edge to Oakland: the Chiefs are banged up and will miss star WR Tyreek Hill in this one. The total opened at a high 52.5 and heavily lopsided over betting, both square and sharp, has moved it up to 53.5.

4:25 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)
This late-afternoon showdown is currently one of the most heavily bet games of the day. And for good reason. Both teams are Super Bowl contenders (Saints and Rams both +1000 to win it all) and there is a massive revenge angle here as the Saints were knocked out of the NFC Championship in controversial fashion thanks to a pass interference non-call. The Rams opened as 3-point home favorites. With home teams typically afforded 3-points, the books are telling you this game is a coin-flip on a neutral field. Nearly six-out-of-ten bets are laying the points with Los Angeles, yet the line has tumbled down to 2. Some books have even touched 1.5. This market-wide reverse line movement is a clear indication that pros have loaded up on the Saints to extract their retribution. Pros have also targeted the under. The total opened at 54-- the highest of any Week 2 game-- and despite the public hammering the over the total has dropped to 52.
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