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#446162 - 08/25/19 11:51 PM 8/29 Statistical Advantages
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Welcome to Statistical Advantages at Freaks Forum

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#446504 - 08/28/19 09:37 PM Re: 8/29 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
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UCLA (3 - 9) at CINCINNATI (11 - 2) - 8/29/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

GEORGIA TECH (7 - 6) at CLEMSON (15 - 0) - 8/29/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

FLA INTERNATIONAL (9 - 4) at TULANE (7 - 6) - 8/29/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TEXAS ST (3 - 9) at TEXAS A&M (9 - 4) - 8/29/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

KENT ST (2 - 10) at ARIZONA ST (7 - 6) - 8/29/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

UTAH (9 - 5) at BYU (7 - 6) - 8/29/2019, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 122-90 ATS (+23.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
UTAH is 63-38 ATS (+21.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 2-0 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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#446525 - 08/29/19 11:15 AM Re: 8/29 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
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CINCINNATI (63 - 69) at MIAMI (47 - 85) - 7:10 PM
ALEX WOOD (L) vs. ROBERT DUGGER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 27-36 (-11.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CINCINNATI is 30-55 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 5-15 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WOOD is 66-71 (-28.7 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WOOD is 10-19 (-15.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997. (Team's Record)
WOOD is 38-41 (-23.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 41-42 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 31-36 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 46-35 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MIAMI is 12-36 (-20.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 6-0 (+6.0 Units) against MIAMI this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)
ALEX WOOD vs. MIAMI since 1997
WOOD is 5-4 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 1.153.
His team's record is 6-5 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-4. (+0.6 units)
ROBERT DUGGER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

CHICAGO CUBS (71 - 61) at NY METS (67 - 65) - 7:10 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. JACOB DEGROM (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1861-1893 (-271.7 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 26-39 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-41 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1382-1410 (-204.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 30-39 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
LESTER is 38-20 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 67-65 (-7.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 111-114 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 2-8 (-9.3 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more this season.
NY METS are 29-35 (-12.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
NY METS are 12-24 (-13.7 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 28-42 (-16.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY METS are 215-267 (-72.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
DEGROM is 10-16 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
DEGROM is 4-9 (-10.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DEGROM is 4-9 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
DEGROM is 6-14 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
DEGROM is 3-9 (-12.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
DEGROM is 1-11 (-16.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 4-2 (+1.1 Units) against NY METS this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.0 Units)
JON LESTER vs. NY METS since 1997
LESTER is 6-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.324.
His team's record is 8-2 (+5.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-4. (+0.7 units)
JACOB DEGROM vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
DEGROM is 3-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.98 and a WHIP of 1.221.
His team's record is 3-6 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)

PITTSBURGH (56 - 77) at COLORADO (59 - 75) - 8:40 PM
TREVOR WILLIAMS (R) vs. CHI CHI GONZALEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 72-136 (-44.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
COLORADO is 151-150 (+6.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 104-106 (+7.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 14-8 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
WILLIAMS is 12-4 (+8.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 35-53 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
COLORADO is 20-26 (-9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)
TREVOR WILLIAMS vs. COLORADO since 1997
WILLIAMS is 1-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.97 and a WHIP of 1.263.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.1 units)
CHI CHI GONZALEZ vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
No recent starts.

LA DODGERS (88 - 47) at ARIZONA (67 - 66) - 9:40 PM
HYUN-JIN RYU (L) vs. MERRILL KELLY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 134-96 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
RYU is 9-18 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
RYU is 8-16 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
RYU is 5-13 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 67-66 (+0.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 34-29 (+8.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA DODGERS are 62-29 (+18.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 70-73 (-22.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-25 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 10-5 (+2.2 Units) against ARIZONA this season
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.3 Units)
HYUN-JIN RYU vs. ARIZONA since 1997
RYU is 6-3 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.135.
His team's record is 10-6 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-7. (+1.7 units)
MERRILL KELLY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
KELLY is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

SAN DIEGO (61 - 71) at SAN FRANCISCO (65 - 67) - 9:45 PM
CHRIS PADDACK (R) vs. DERECK RODRIGUEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 61-71 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 51-81 (-23.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 27-39 (-19.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN DIEGO is 16-26 (-13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 65-67 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-15 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-30 (+12.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-38 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 48-45 (+11.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 35-31 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-20 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN DIEGO is 44-48 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 27-22 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
SAN DIEGO is 43-39 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-6 (+5.1 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.1 Units)
CHRIS PADDACK vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
PADDACK is 0-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
DERECK RODRIGUEZ vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
RODRIGUEZ is 1-1 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 0.769.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-4. (-4.6 units)

CLEVELAND (78 - 55) at DETROIT (39 - 91) - 1:10 PM
MIKE CLEVINGER (R) vs. DANIEL NORRIS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 169-129 (-24.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 57-49 (-22.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 91-76 (-26.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVINGER is 10-16 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 39-91 (-32.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 16-46 (-25.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
DETROIT is 17-45 (-25.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
DETROIT is 6-21 (-15.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
DETROIT is 157-180 (-51.0 Units) against the money line in home games in August games since 1997.
DETROIT is 402-393 (-76.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
DETROIT is 29-73 (-28.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 28-62 (-17.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
DETROIT is 6-18 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
DETROIT is 14-48 (-19.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 10-35 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NORRIS is 4-19 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 14-1 (+12.6 Units) against DETROIT this season
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.1 Units)
MIKE CLEVINGER vs. DETROIT since 1997
CLEVINGER is 6-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.155.
His team's record is 6-3 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)
DANIEL NORRIS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
NORRIS is 3-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.89 and a WHIP of 1.413.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.8 units)

OAKLAND (76 - 56) at KANSAS CITY (47 - 87) - 1:15 PM
CHRIS BASSITT (R) vs. GLENN SPARKMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 76-55 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 196-110 (+39.3 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 80-64 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 159-133 (+46.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 33-17 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 66-42 (+20.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 118-86 (+30.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 72-46 (+31.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 85-47 (+25.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 39-13 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 47-87 (-23.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 24-41 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 4-15 (-11.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 34-65 (-19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 13-32 (-17.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 41-109 (-35.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-1 (+0.4 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)
CHRIS BASSITT vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
BASSITT is 0-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.323.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.5 units)
GLENN SPARKMAN vs. OAKLAND since 1997
No recent starts.

TAMPA BAY (76 - 58) at HOUSTON (87 - 47) - 2:10 PM
ANDREW KITTREDGE (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 51-16 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
GREINKE is 151-81 (+49.0 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 75-36 (+27.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 166-130 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 81-69 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 68-49 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 66-68 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 28-21 (+14.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 43-36 (-25.2 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 4-8 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-3 (+0.4 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)
ANDREW KITTREDGE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.
ZACK GREINKE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GREINKE is 4-6 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.99 and a WHIP of 1.202.
His team's record is 5-8 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-4. (+4.0 units)

MINNESOTA (81 - 51) at CHI WHITE SOX (60 - 72) - 2:10 PM
JOSE BERRIOS (R) vs. DYLAN CEASE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 60-72 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 40-42 (+17.8 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 33-34 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 31-25 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 28-27 (+7.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 33-37 (+12.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
MINNESOTA is 81-51 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 42-22 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 394-402 (+48.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 64-37 (+16.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 405-448 (+27.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 27-9 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 21-42 (-18.9 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 10-5 (+1.8 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.6 Units)
JOSE BERRIOS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
BERRIOS is 9-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 2.24 and a WHIP of 0.983.
His team's record is 10-2 (+7.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-6. (-1.4 units)
DYLAN CEASE vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
CEASE is 0-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

SEATTLE (56 - 78) at TEXAS (65 - 69) - 8:05 PM
FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 101-178 (-57.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
SEATTLE is 423-378 (-72.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1997.
TEXAS is 65-69 (+6.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 38-27 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TEXAS is 20-11 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.
TEXAS is 45-46 (+6.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 43-44 (+6.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 35-30 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TEXAS is 37-29 (+9.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SEATTLE is 69-75 (+6.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 100-93 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 52-52 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 30-20 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 9-6 (+3.5 Units) against SEATTLE this season
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.7 Units)
FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. TEXAS since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 19-25 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.279.
His team's record is 25-32 (-16.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 29-24. (+2.1 units)
LANCE LYNN vs. SEATTLE since 1997
LYNN is 3-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.038.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)
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#446526 - 08/29/19 11:15 AM Re: 8/29 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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LOS ANGELES (18 - 11) at INDIANA (11 - 19) - 8/29/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 6-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 6-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS (9 - 20) at CHICAGO (18 - 12) - 8/29/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PHOENIX (14 - 15) at ATLANTA (7 - 22) - 8/29/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 6-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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#446546 - 08/29/19 11:29 AM Re: 8/29 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 178952
Loc: Time to play the Game
NCAAF
7 p.m. ET: UCLA at Cincinnati
This prime-time showdown is currently the most heavily bet college football game of the night. Cincinnati beat UCLA 26-17 in last year's season opener and finished an impressive 11-2 on the year. The Bearcats opened as 4-point home favorites against Chip Kelly's Bruins, who finished last season a disappointing 3-9. Despite the tickets being relatively split, we've seen this line fall to -2.5 or even -2 at some books. This is a clear indication that wiseguys are backing the Bruins and causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Since 2005, short road dogs (+4 or less) like UCLA have gone 54.4% ATS (+73.81 units) according to Bet Labs sports. We've also seen smart money target the under, as the total has fallen from 60 to 58.

8 p.m. ET: Georgia Tech at Clemson (1)
The defending champion Clemson Tigers are the top ranked team in the country and currently a +180 favorite to repeat as FBS Champions. Their win total is 11.5 (over -135, under +115), highest in the nation. Star quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a +280 favorite to win the Heisman. Georgia Tech lost to Clemson 49-21 last year and finished 7-6 on the season. Now they must acclimate to new Head Coach Geoff Collins. Clemson opened as a massive 34-point favorite and we've seen the line rise to -37. While Clemson in a blowout seems like an obvious play, there is a reason to buy low on the Yellow Jackets. Since 2005, underdogs of 30+ points in Week 1 who see the line move further away from them have gone 88-60 ATS (59.5%). Essentially you are taking advantage of being gifted extra points caused by public betting (Georgia Tech +34 to +37). The total has ticked up slightly from 59.5 to 60.5.

8:30 p.m. ET: Texas State at Texas A&M (12)
Texas A&M went 9-4 last year in Jimbo Fisher's first year as head coach. Meanwhile, small school Texas State went just 3-9. Hammer the Aggies, right? This line opened with A&M listed as huge 35-point favorites. Despite receiving massive public support, we've seen the line fall to -33. Why would bookmakers drop the spread to make it easier for Average Joes to cover with the Aggies? Because sharps got down hard on Texas State, forcing a 2-point adjustment in their favor. One x-factor here: new Texas State Head Coach Jake Spavital was the former offensive coordinator at A&M, so he knows the opponent well. We've also seen smart money target the under (58 to 57). Winds up to 10 MPH are expected at Kyle Field, which make it harder to kick and throw the ball, leading to more running which chews up the clock and benefits the under.

10:15 p.m. ET: Utah (14) at BYU
Casual bettors bet largely based on bias, gut instinct and rankings. If a ranked team goes against an unranked team, hammer the ranked team. But sportsbooks know this and will shade the lines toward the popular side, creating added contrarian value to buy low on the unranked team. This late night showdown is a perfect example. Utah opened as a six-point road favorite. Sharps hit BYU plus the points early, dropping the line down to 5.5. The number then ballooned back to Utah -7 thanks to heavy public betting. That's when wiseguys doubled down on BYU and crushed the home dog at the key number of +7. The line has since settled back at 6.5. BYU also has excellent contrarian value, getting only about one-third of bets as a home dog in a heavily bet game. The total has dropped slightly from 48.5 to 48.

NFL
7 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at New York Jets (1-2)
Both teams enter their final preseason game with 1-2 records. The Eagles have Super Bowl aspirations (+1300) and this game doesn't mean much to them. They know who they are. Meanwhile, the young Jets are trying to build around Sam Darnold and get some momentum going into Week 1. New York opened as 3-point home favorites and sharps quickly got down on the Jets, moving them to -4. Pro money also came down on the over. We've seen a massive jump with the total rising from 32 to 35 since opening.

7 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
The public is down on the Colts. They've gone winless in the preseason and now they've lost franchise quarterback Andrew Luck to retirement. Fine by the the sharps. They love selling on good news and buying on bad news in order to extract maximum value. This line opened at Bengals -4. Casual bettors are loading up on Cincinnati, yet we've seen the line fall to -3. This signals smart money grabbing the Colts, creating market-wide reverse line movement in their favor. The total hasn't moved off the opener of 33.5.

7:30 p.m. ET: New York Giants (3-0) at New England Patriots (3-0)
Both teams are looking to finish the preseason undefeated. New England opened as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Early smart money hit the Giants, causing the line to fall to -1.5. That's when big Patriots buyback hit the market, pushing the line back up to Pats -3. The Patriots defense has looked stellar this preseason, allowing only 23 points in three games. On the flip side, rookie quarterback Daniel Jones and the Giants have scored 88 points through three games. As a result, the public doesn't know which way to go with the total. But pros have taken a clear position on the over. It's risen from 33.5 to 35.

8 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Despite still missing star running Ezekiel Elliott to a holdout, the Cowboys remain a legitimate postseason threat (win total 9, +100 to make the playoffs, +175 to win NFC East, +1800 to win the Super Bowl). The Bucs are not (win total 6.5 with -115 juice on the under). Dallas opened as a 3-point home favorite and pro bettors seem to expect an easy cover for the Boys as smart money has pushed the line all the way to Dallas -5. The total hasn't moved off the opener of 33.5.
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