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#446158 - 08/25/19 11:50 PM 9/2 Statistical Advantages
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#446500 - 08/28/19 09:33 PM Re: 9/2 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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NOTRE DAME (12 - 1) at LOUISVILLE (2 - 10) - 9/2/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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#446658 - 08/29/19 10:35 PM Re: 9/2 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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TORONTO (1 - 8) at HAMILTON (8 - 2) - 9/2/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

EDMONTON (6 - 4) at CALGARY (5 - 4) - 9/2/2019, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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#447011 - 09/02/19 09:35 AM Re: 9/2 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
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NY METS (69 - 67) at WASHINGTON (77 - 58) - 1:05 PM
NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R) vs. JOE ROSS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 69-67 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 26-43 (-17.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 30-36 (-12.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
NY METS are 30-44 (-17.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY METS are 20-15 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 159-138 (-23.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 81-67 (-22.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 47-48 (-29.3 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 83-76 (-25.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 37-42 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 10-6 (+3.9 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.6 Units)
NOAH SYNDERGAARD vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
SYNDERGAARD is 4-6 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.40 and a WHIP of 1.100.
His team's record is 7-9 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-4. (+5.7 units)
JOE ROSS vs. NY METS since 1997
ROSS is 2-3 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.392.
His team's record is 3-4 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.6 units)

PHILADELPHIA (70 - 65) at CINCINNATI (64 - 73) - 2:10 PM
DREW SMYLY (L) vs. ANTHONY DESCLAFANI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 60-84 (-25.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-20 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 32-37 (-12.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CINCINNATI is 64-73 (-7.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 17-36 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CINCINNATI is 27-37 (-12.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 (+0.7 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.1 Units)
DREW SMYLY vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
SMYLY is 0-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.667.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
ANTHONY DESCLAFANI vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
DESCLAFANI is 2-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.435.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.1 units)

SAN FRANCISCO (66 - 70) at ST LOUIS (76 - 60) - 2:15 PM
TYLER BEEDE (R) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-22 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 76-60 (+5.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 37-23 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ST LOUIS is 43-25 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ST LOUIS is 22-9 (+9.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ST LOUIS is 11-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
ST LOUIS is 62-47 (+6.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 44-20 (+18.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ST LOUIS is 26-8 (+17.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
WAINWRIGHT is 202-120 (+44.3 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 98-52 (+32.0 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 101-47 (+30.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 66-70 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 36-32 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 232-217 (+33.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 223-172 (+45.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 49-46 (+11.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 36-33 (+10.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)
TYLER BEEDE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.
ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 6-8 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.11 and a WHIP of 1.193.
His team's record is 8-9 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-10. (-5.0 units)

SAN DIEGO (64 - 72) at ARIZONA (70 - 67) - 4:10 PM
CAL QUANTRILL (R) vs. MIKE LEAKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 64-72 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 70-67 (+3.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LEAKE is 33-25 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LEAKE is 20-9 (+15.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 68-81 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 30-22 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 34-41 (-25.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 73-74 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-20 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 20-26 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 7-3 (+3.3 Units) against ARIZONA this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)
CAL QUANTRILL vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.
MIKE LEAKE vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
LEAKE is 2-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.30 and a WHIP of 1.252.
His team's record is 4-4 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-5. (-2.6 units)

COLORADO (59 - 79) at LA DODGERS (89 - 50) - 8:10 PM
PETER LAMBERT (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 59-79 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 35-56 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
COLORADO is 30-47 (-14.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LA DODGERS are 52-18 (+21.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 38-9 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 87-86 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 50-46 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 25-27 (-20.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 134-99 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 10-3 (+5.4 Units) against COLORADO this season
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)
PETER LAMBERT vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LAMBERT is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.45 and a WHIP of 1.758.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)
WALKER BUEHLER vs. COLORADO since 1997
BUEHLER is 3-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.98 and a WHIP of 0.977.
His team's record is 6-3 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.8 units)

TEXAS (67 - 71) at NY YANKEES (90 - 48) - 1:05 PM
MIKE MINOR (L) vs. MASAHIRO TANAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINOR is 9-18 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in September games since 1997. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 90-48 (+22.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 51-21 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
NY YANKEES are 60-30 (+15.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TEXAS is 67-71 (+5.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 22-19 (+9.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
TEXAS is 43-45 (+4.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 52-65 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MINOR is 21-13 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIKE MINOR vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MINOR is 1-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.071.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.4 units)
MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. TEXAS since 1997
TANAKA is 1-3 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 7.15 and a WHIP of 1.471.
His team's record is 3-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-4. (-2.6 units)

MINNESOTA (84 - 52) at DETROIT (40 - 94) - 1:10 PM
JAKE ODORIZZI (R) vs. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 84-52 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 45-23 (+20.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 155-165 (+30.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 397-403 (+49.6 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 67-37 (+19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 407-449 (+28.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 51-23 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DETROIT is 40-94 (-34.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 18-48 (-27.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
DETROIT is 7-25 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 403-396 (-77.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
DETROIT is 29-76 (-31.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 29-64 (-18.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
DETROIT is 15-51 (-20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 11-38 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-10 (-0.9 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
10 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.5 Units)
JAKE ODORIZZI vs. DETROIT since 1997
ODORIZZI is 5-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.143.
His team's record is 8-2 (+5.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-5. (+0.0 units)
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
ZIMMERMANN is 4-5 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.89 and a WHIP of 1.691.
His team's record is 5-5 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-4. (+1.7 units)

BALTIMORE (45 - 91) at TAMPA BAY (80 - 58) - 1:10 PM
ASHER WOJCIECHOWSKI (R) vs. RYAN YARBROUGH (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 92-206 (-67.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 21-59 (-25.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 42-107 (-33.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 63-140 (-43.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 44-118 (-38.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 170-130 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 23-7 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 70-49 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 104-64 (+27.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 37-31 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 6-10 (+1.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.4 Units)
ASHER WOJCIECHOWSKI vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
WOJCIECHOWSKI is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 5.23 and a WHIP of 1.355.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
RYAN YARBROUGH vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
YARBROUGH is 0-0 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 0.693.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

CHI WHITE SOX (60 - 76) at CLEVELAND (79 - 58) - 7:10 PM
ROSS DETWILER (L) vs. AARON CIVALE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 1-14 (-12.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 60-76 (+6.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 38-40 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 170-132 (-26.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 101-84 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 7-5 (+6.1 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.5 Units)
ROSS DETWILER vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.
AARON CIVALE vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.

TORONTO (55 - 83) at ATLANTA (84 - 54) - 1:20 PM
JACOB WAGUESPACK (R) vs. MIKE SOROKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 84-54 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 51-35 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 63-44 (+11.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 52-31 (+13.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ATLANTA is 85-50 (+16.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 95-106 (-40.6 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 1-1 (+0.7 Units) against ATLANTA this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)
JACOB WAGUESPACK vs. ATLANTA since 1997
WAGUESPACK is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.667.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)
MIKE SOROKA vs. TORONTO since 1997
SOROKA is 0-1 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.687.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

SEATTLE (58 - 80) at CHICAGO CUBS (73 - 63) - 2:20 PM
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD (L) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 16-48 (-25.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 45-24 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SEATTLE is 71-77 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 53-52 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1863-1895 (-271.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 945-935 (-166.3 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 899-822 (-155.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
HENDRICKS is 15-18 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.
KYLE HENDRICKS vs. SEATTLE since 1997
No recent starts.

HOUSTON (89 - 49) at MILWAUKEE (70 - 66) - 4:10 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. ADRIAN HOUSER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 36-32 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 60-40 (-8.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in road games after shutting out their opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 72-53 (+15.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 125-92 (+21.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 82-70 (+16.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 44-34 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 65-30 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 70-66 (-7.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)
GERRIT COLE vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
COLE is 3-4 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.67 and a WHIP of 1.197.
His team's record is 6-6 (-1.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-3. (+2.7 units)
ADRIAN HOUSER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.
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#447037 - 09/02/19 10:13 AM Re: 9/2 Statistical Advantages [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
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Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 178952
Loc: Time to play the Game
1:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (69-67) at Washington Nationals (77-58)
This 3-game series between NL East rivals is huge for both clubs. The Nats are up +4.5 games in the Wild Card standings but remain 5.5 games behind the Braves for the division lead. The Mets have gone 2-7 over their last 9 games and now trail the 2nd Wild Card spot by 4 games. New York is desperate to play well and stay in the chase. With ace Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 4.14 ERA) facing off against Joe Ross (303, 5.36 ERA), the Mets opened as short -110 road favorites with the Nats an even +100 dog. Despite the Mets having the pitching matchup, the public says Washington is the better team and nearly 65% are grabbing the Nats +100. However, we've seen this line remain frozen at -110 for the Mets. Typically, you'll see a line move toward the popular side. When it doesn't, this means the books have liability and refuse to hand out a better number to pros with an edge. The Mets are a rare contrarian favorite, which provides sharps one of their favorite spots: fade the trendy dog. It looks like smart money is also leaning on the over. The total opened at 9.5 with juice to the under (-115) but now it has evened out to 9.5 under, -110 both sides.

4:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (89-49) at Milwaukee Brewers (70-66)
This Interleague Series means much more to the Brewers than the Astros. The Astros are a game behind the Yankees for the best record in baseball and a +200 favorite to win the World Series. The Brewers are fighting for their playoff lives, down 3 games for the 2nd Wild Card spot. Behind Cy Young finalist Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.85 ERA), Houston opened as big -175 road favorites and the Brewers a +165 dog. Adrian Houser 6-5, 3.52 ERA) toes the rubber for the Brewers. It's hard not to back the juicy payout on Milwaukee. But it appears early Pro and Joe money is both riding the 'Stros as we've seen the line move from -175 to -186. The total is 8.5 with the under at -120, indicting liability on a low-scoring game.

8:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (59-79) at Los Angeles Dodgers (89-50)
These two NL West rivals could't be more polar opposite. The Rockies are in a tailspin. They've dropped 9 of their last 10 games and aren't even close to being in the playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are the 3rd best team in baseball (behind the Astros and Yankees) and currently feature the 2nd best odds to win the World Series (+240). In tonight's late game, young stud Walker Buehler (11-3, 3.03 ERA) opposes Peter Lambert (2-5, 6.63 ERA). With this massive pitching matchup, Los Angeles opened as a -294 favorite and have quickly moved to -320. We've also seen the total move from 8.5 to 9, signaling smart money getting down on the over.

NCAAF
8 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (9) at Louisville
Data-driven wiseguys always try to check off two major boxes when making a pick: contrarian and sharp action. Going contrarian means betting against the public who bets based on gut instinct and bias. More often than not the public loses. And the house always wins. By betting against the public, wiseguys can extract added value and take advantage of overpriced, artificially inflated lines. But blindly going contrarian isn't enough to be a winning bettor. You also have to ensure that you're with the sharp action, which means being on the same side as the professional bettors who win at a high rate, have a long track record of success and have the respect of the books.

This game is a perfect example of sharp play checking off both key boxes. Notre Dame is a popular, well-known favorite that the public loves to back. The Fighting Irish finished last season with an impressive 12-1 record and 5th overall ranking. This year they enter ranked 9th overall but their win total is only 9.5 with juice toward the under (-160), which means a 9-win regular season or less is the favorite. The Fighting Irish are +6000 to win the FBS Championship. In other words, the Irish are expected to take a step back this season.

Meanwhile, Louisville went a pathetic 2-10 in 2018 and now begins a rebuild under new head coach Scott Satterfield. So the public wants nothing to do with them.

This game opened with Notre Dame listed as a large 20-point road favorite. Casual bettors are backing the Irish, expecting an easy blowout, but despite receiving three-out-of-four bets, Notre Dame has fallen to -18. This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement, with pros buying low on Louisville, a big contrarian dog at home, causing the line to be adjusted in their favor. Since this is the only game in town tonight (and it's nationally televised), it will receive a massive amount of public action, giving the Cardinals excellent contrarian value as a big home dog.

We've also seen pro money target this under. It opened at 57.5 and has since been bet down to 54.5.
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