Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks May 4th 2019: Kentucky Derby Day

Hopefully the rain stays away, but even if it doesn't that won't keep me away from the ticket window today.

Best of Fortune!

Doc

I Rank horses in all the races at 1-8

Win Betting Approach

Bet the top two ranks if you can get 4/1 or better
Bet the third and 4th ranks if you can get 5/1 or better, or.......
Bet the two longest odd horses in the top four ranks. Best long-term winning approach.
If you don't want to watch the tote-board then bet top two ranks and pound beers in between races.

Exotic Betting Approach

Use your two horses on top of all exotics however deep you want to go.

Churchill Downs

Race 4: Post Time 12:03 EST

8 YOUVESAIDITALL
4 HIGH CRIME
2 HIDDEN SCROLL
1 CHASE THE GHOST
3 ZORB
11 LEXITONIAN
10 MISCHIEVOUS BIRD
7 JOHNYS BOBBY

Churchill Downs

Race 7: Post Time 1:55 EST

4 BEAU RECALL
9 ENVIRONS
3 PROCTORS LEDGE
10 VALEDICTORIAN
6 PRECIEUSE
1 RAVENS LADY
2 TAKE THESE CHAINS
5 DADDY IS A LEGEND

Churchill Downs

Race 8: Post Time 2:45 EST

12 WHITMORE
1 DO SHARE
6 PROMISES FULFILLED
8 MITOLE
9 UNCONTESTED
4 BOBBYS WICKED ONE
7 WARRIORS CLUB
3 MAJESTIC DUNHILL

Churchill Downs

Race 9: Post Time 3:37 EST

10 HENLEYS JOY
1 A THREAD OF BLUE
7 CASA CREED
2 SOCIAL PARANOIA
3 DIGITAL AGE
6 FOREVER MO
5 SEISMIC WAVE
8 AVIES FLATTER

Churchill Downs

Race 10: Post Time 4:28 EST

10 INSTAGRAND
14 LAST JUDGMENT
5 DUNPH
7 MR MONEY
2 MARKET KING
9 CAPTAIN VON TRAPP
13 HOG CREEK HUSTLE
1 DURKINS CALL

Churchill Downs

Race 11: Post Time 5:25 EST

12 BRICKS AND MORTAR
1 QURBAAN
5 MARKITOFF
10 TICONDEROGA
3 MULTIPLIER
4 SABADOR
9 SYNCHRONY
8 BREAKING THE RULES

Churchill Downs

Race 12 The Kentucky Derby Post Time 6:50 EST

7 MAXIMUM SECURITY
17 ROADSTER
10 CUTTING HUMOR
5 IMPROBABLE
2 TAX
19 SPINOFF
8 TACITUS
3 BY MY STANDARDS

Churchill Downs

Race 13: Post Time 7:50 EST

11 HOFFAS UNION
5 AQUADINI
9 ROYAL MESA
10 BANDON WOODS
8 TAPIT WISE
3 LORD DRAGON
4 AND SEEK
1 LIMONITE

Gulfstream Park

Race 9: Post Time 4:36 EST

6 JUAN AND BINA
9 KID MAC COOL
5 ECLIPSED MOON
7 PIRATES TREASURE
3 IRISH LETTERS
8 BRANDT

Gulfstream Park

Race 10: Post Time 5:08 EST

13 TRENCHTOWN CAT
11 ITSMYLUCKYCHARM
10 VOW TO RECOVER
4 VIOLENT TRICK
7 SCAT MOMMY
1 BELLO PORTE
3 PANTHER HIT
5 DONT MAKE FUN

Gulfstream Park

Race 12: Post Tim 6:04 EST

10 STIRLING DRIVE
1 ART G IS BACK
5 VOW ME NOW
4 SHARETHEBLAME
6 SEA OF HOPE
9 TIMMY M
2 SCRAPS
7 BAD TO THE CORE

Oaklawn Park

Race 10: Post Time 6:05 EST

4 SMART SPREE
11 BOW AND ARROW
8 MINES MADE UP
9 BASIC CHANCE
10 DAN THE GO TO MAN
6 DATA DRIVEN
5 GETOFFMYBACK
2 GENTRIFIED

Oaklawn Park

Race 11: Post Time 6:38 EST

4 MATH WIZARD
3 HARVEY WALLBANGER
10 LAUGHING FOX
9 HIDDEN RULER
2 ROILAND
1 COMEDIAN
5 PROVERB

Lets go ahead and make it official. The Race 13 from Churchill I have listed as a race to bet...Is now a pass with the change of the track conditions.

It's been a great day, and the only thing left to do is to sweep the Derby, and races 10 & 11 at Oaklawn.

Doc

Okay, a profitable despite the Gay Kentucky Derby DQ. Just bad for everyone in that race. Just a weird feeling, and I get the call. However it doesn't mean I like it one bit.

Races results by order of how they were posted.

Churchill Race 4 started the day for me. Result was 5-1-2 and I didn't have a piece of that

CD Race 7 saw the A Ranked number 4 horse win at 10/1. Result 4-8-5. The 4 paid $23.00 to win. I replaced the 8 horse at the last minute, but cashed the Win ticket.

CD Race 8 saw the D Ranked horse win at 2/1 paying $6.40 with a Result of 8-4-6 giving a $54.00 exacta. Me personally since I play odds didn't have a win or exacta ticket here.

CD Race 9 saw one of the Non ranked horses winas I could've easily made a case for the 3 horse that did win which was ranked 5th. Result was 3-1-2.

CD Race 10 got us back in stride as the D Ranked won going off at 7/1 paying $17.00 even. Result was 7-13-3, and the Exacta ticket of $201.20.

CD Race 11 Saw the A Ranked even money favorite #12 catch our B-Ranked #1 just before the line. Win Paid $4.20 and an exacta of $46.60, but nothing for me personally.

CD Race 12...The Derby...Fuckem' since our A-Ranked gets DQ'd at 9/2 right in the ass.

CD Race 13 the track was a mess so I passed on that race.

Gulfstream Park Race 9 saw the All four ranks battle it out with the 2nd longest odds among the top four get the win. As the B Ranked comes in at 3/1, and bring in a really nice $341.60 exacta. Result was 9-8-7.

GP Race 10 Gave us a C-Ranked winner at 7/1 and grabbed that exacta. Result was 10-7-9 paying $16.40 & $91.20 exacta.

GP Race 12 closed out the track going 3 for 3 with another C-Rank win at 6/1. The result was 5-1-10 paying $15.00 exacta of $62.20.

Oaklawn Park was a little less exciting. Starting race 10 which saw the Ranks not come close with a result of 2-6-10

OP Race 11 saw the second highest odd horse win with the C Rank cashing on the 10 horse. Result was 10-7-5 paying $10.00, but I didn't have the 7 for the place. So....

Now the final tally.

Cumulative Totals

# of Racing Days = 6 # of Races Issued = 49
# of Winners in the Ranks = 28 %of winners from the ranks = 57.1%
# of Winners paying $20 or higher = 3 Highest pay = $51.40

Below are the tallies for the horses that qualified by the odds parameters given in the betting guidelines. The '$ in and $ out' figures based on $2 wagers.

All - Top - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
count- 49 – 49 – 49 – 47
qual – 29 – 24 – 31 – 32
hit – 4 – 2 – 2 – 4
hit % - 15.0% – 12.0% – 6.5% – 12.5%
In - $58 - $48 - $62 - $64
Out - $75.00 - $33.20 - $31.40 - $81.40
ROI – +29.3% - -30.8% - -48.4% - +27.1%

Exacta:

In - $1456
Out - $1513.30
ROI - +3.9%