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#434277 - 05/01/19 08:16 PM 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More
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Omaha Beach the favorite scratched.
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#434279 - 05/01/19 08:25 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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All you need to do is click and either save the PDF to your computer or you can simply read it.

This is hosted on the site, no viruses or goofy BS to deal with.


Attachments
KYDerby2019.pdf (83 downloads)
Description: KY Derby Past Performances


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#434280 - 05/01/19 08:28 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Joe Kristufek

Maximum Security
Omaha Beach SCR
Roadster
By My Standards
Win Win Win
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#434281 - 05/01/19 08:29 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Ed DeRosa

By My Standards
Tax
Improbable
Tacitus
Spinoff
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#434282 - 05/01/19 08:29 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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James Scully

Omaha Beach SCR
Tacitus
Game Winner
Code of Honor
Long Range Toddy
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#434283 - 05/01/19 08:30 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Kellie Reilly

Game Winner
Omaha Beach SCR
Code of Honor
Roadster
Tacitus
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#434284 - 05/01/19 08:30 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Vance Hanson

Omaha Beach SCR
Improbable
Maximum Security
Roadster
Game Winner
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#434285 - 05/01/19 08:30 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Scott Shapiro

Game Winner
Code of Honor
Improbable
Tacitus
Cutting Humor
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#434286 - 05/01/19 08:31 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS (Updated Wednesday)

Game Winner 9/2
Improbable 5-1
Roadster 5-1
Maximum Security 8-1
Tacitus 8-1
Code of Honor 12-1
Win Win Win 12-1
By My Standards 15-1
Vekoma 15-1
War of Will 15-1
Tax 20-1
Bodexpress 30-1
Country House 30-1
Cutting Humor 30-1
Haikal 30-1
Long Range Toddy 30-1
Plus Que Parfait 30-1
Spinoff 30-1
Gray Magician 50-1
Master Fencer 50-1
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#434350 - 05/02/19 07:32 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Tom Quigley

$3,000,000 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs

The Kentucky Derby (G1) increased its purse an extra million dollars this year and indicative of what a great betting race it is, the morning line favorite is 4/1. Let’s take a closer look at all 20 runners:

#1 WAR OF WILL draws the dreaded rail post position. After a pair of wins in the LeComte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds, this son of WAR FRONT stumbled early on in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and failed to fire late, but sports three straight bullet workouts prepping for this run. The forecast calls for rain; his lone start on a wet surface resulted in a five length maiden win over this track as a two-year-old.

#2 TAX won the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct two starts back and returned to complete the exacta spot behind #8 TACITUS in the Wood Memorial (G2). He’ll need to turn the tables on that aforementioned rival while facing many tough and new shooters that are the cream of the three-year-old crop this year. Has yet to race over a wet track.

#3 BY MY STANDARDS made his first start against winners in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and pulled off a 22/1 upset under jockey Gabriel Saez, who retains the mount for trainer Bret Calhoun. This colt by GOLDENCENTS has reportedly been working extremely well over the Churchill Downs dirt since his last win and may be coming into this race better than ever. His two career starts over wet tracks were solid-in the money finishes.

#4 GRAY MAGICIAN was last seen finishing three parts of a length behind #9 PLUS QUE PARFAIT in the UAE Derby (G2). His lone career victory came against maiden company as a two-year-old and his only start over a wet track resulted in his worst race yet; an eight length loss against allowance company. Will go off at a big price.

#5 IMPROBABLE, one of three Bob Baffert entrants, has never finished worse than second in five lifetime starts. He raced over the slop in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last time out after throwing a fit in the starting gate while adding blinkers and finished a length behind winner #12 OMAHA BEACH. His two-back-effort, in which he got tagged late by #18 LONG RANGE TODDY in the Rebel (G2), was also a solid try. The one time blinker experiment in the Arkansas Derby (G1) is over as blinkers are off today.

#6 VEKOMA dueled on the lead in the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) as the 7/5 favorite before shaking clear of his rivals down the stretch, finishing three-and-a-half lengths ahead of runner up #14 WIN WIN WIN. His lone loss in four lifetime starts came two races back when beaten by #13 CODE OF HONOR in the Fountain of Youth (G2). His dam was a Grade I winning sprinter, but his sire (CANDY RIDE) was a classic distance racer and can produce classic distance horses.

#7 MAXIMUM SECURITY debuted for a maiden $16K claiming tag at Gulfstream Park and won the race by almost 10 lengths. In three starts since, this Jason Servis trainee has won a pair of allowance races and the Florida Derby (G1), a race in which he routed for the first time and took the field gate to wire. This guy should be showing speed and he has won over a wet track to boot. Dangerous.

#8 TACITUS is a royally bred colt, by TAPIT out of Grade I winning mare CLOSE HATCHES, so he certainly has the pedigree to be a good one. The Bill Mott trainee most recently won the Wood Memorial (G2) and defeated a decent group in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) two races back when he added Lasix. He makes his third start off a layoff and has been improving with each and every start. He broke his maiden over a wet track, which is encouraging as well given the forecast calls for showers. Top North American rider Jose Ortiz rides.

#9 PLUS QUE PARFAIT was handily beaten in two straight races against WAR OF WILL at the Fair Grounds but rebounded in his most recent start, the UAE Derby (G2) and defeated #4 GRAY MAGICIAN by three-quarters of a length. He’ll need to prove his effort in Dubai was no fluke while facing a lot tougher company in this spot.

#10 CUTTING HUMOR comes off a gutsy win in the Sunland Derby (G3), defeating ANOTHERTWISTAFATE by a neck, who came back to run second in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland three weeks ago. One of two Todd Pletcher runners signed on in here, this son of FIRST SAMURAI gets the acid test here.

#11 HAIKAL sat off a wicked fast pace and ran on strongly to defeat next out winner MIND CONTROL and quality colt INSTAGRAND in the Gotham (G3) going a one-turn mile in the Gotham (G2) on March 9. He came back one month later, raced two turns for the first time, and finished behind #8 TACITUS and #2 TAX in the Wood Memorial (G2). His two races over wet tracks were solid, so a damp track won’t be an issue for this guy.

#12 OMAHA BEACH is the 4/1 morning line favorite. The Richard Mandella trainee showed natural speed and beat Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champ GAME WINNER and Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) victor IMPROBABLE in his two most recent starts, the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1). He is two-for-two over sloppy surfaces, so it doesn’t seem to matter whether he runs on a fast or wet track, and he has been improving steadily with age and racing experience. Mike Smith opts to ride this guy over #17 ROADSTER, too, which only adds to the appeal. Lots to like.

#13 CODE OF HONOR came from well out of it to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) two starts ago but had to settle for third when finishing behind #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY and #21 BODEXPRESS in his most recent start, the Florida Derby (G1). Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, who won the Kentucky Derby (G1) in 2013 with ORB.

#14 WIN WIN WIN was the runner up to TACITCUS in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) two races ago and had to settle for second again when finishing behind #6 VEKOMA in the Toyota Bluegrass (G2). Irad Ortiz Jr., his regular rider, opts to ride #5 IMPROBABLE, so Julien Pimentel, who was aboard this colt his entire two-year-old season, regains the mount.

#15 MASTER FENCER (JPN) most recently went off at 10/1 in a Kentucky Derby (G1) prep in Japan, the Fukuryu Stakes (G1), and flew late for second while racing a mile-and-an-eighth. The extra furlong should only be to his benefit, but whether he is good enough to defeat the best horses in this race remains to be seen.

#16 GAME WINNER is the second of three Bob Baffert entrants. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner and top two-year-old colt of 2018 has failed to win in two starts this year, though both efforts were respectable, finishing a nose behind #12 OMAHA BEACH in the Rebel (G2) and running second again, this time to #17 ROADSTER, after losing a lot of ground on both turns in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He has a grinding running style that suggests he should be just fine going a mile-and-a-quarter.

#17 ROADSTER rounds out the Bob Baffert trained trio of runners. Last time out, he stalked the pace before surging late to beat stablemate #16 GAME WINNER in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Like his two stablemates, this is his third start off a layoff, meaning he should be in peak condition heading into this race. Mike Smith has ridden all four career starts and sticks with #12 OMAHA BEACH, so Florent Geroux takes the call.

#18 LONG RANGE TODDY defeated #5 IMPROBABLE in the Rebel (G2) over a fast track but was beaten by double-digit lengths in the Rebel (G2) over a sloppy track. The forecasts calls for rain on ‘Derby Day, which might compromise this colt’s chances given how poorly he ran over a wet track last time.

#19 SPINOFF finished three quarters of a length behind #3 BY MY STANDARDS in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and faces the aforementioned rival plus much tougher company in this spot. He’s the second Todd Pletcher entrant in this race, who previously won the roses with SUPER SAVER in 2010 and ALWAYS DREAMING in 2017.

#20 COUNTRY HOUSE has finished behind a number of these rivals in recent starts, including #1 WAR OF WILL, #3 BY MY STANDARDS, #5 IMPROBABLE, #12 OMAHA BEACH and #19 SPINOFF. Top Southern California jockey Flavien Prat rides for the first time.

#21 BODEEXPRESS will need a defection to draw into the race from the also eligible list.

SELECTIONS

1. #12 OMAHA BEACH - Too many positives to ignore.
2. #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY - Undefeated colt comes from a high percentage barn.
3. #16 GAME WINNER - Always puts up a good showing.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#3 BY MY STANDARDS - Training like he’s ready to run a big one.


WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick and box my top three picks in exotics.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #12 OMAHA BEACH $5 Exacta Box: #12 OMAHA BEACH and #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY and #16 GAME WINNER ($30).
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#434351 - 05/02/19 07:34 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Dan Cronin

1. Game Winner
2. Improbable
3. Roadster
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#434352 - 05/02/19 07:34 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Megan Devine

1. Improbable
2. Game Winner
3. By My Standards
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#434353 - 05/02/19 07:34 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Emily Gullikson

1. Win Win Win
2. Code of Honor
3. Cutting Humor
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#434354 - 05/02/19 07:35 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Mike McCormick

1. Tacitus
2. By My Standards
3. Improbable
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#434355 - 05/02/19 07:35 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Nicolle Neulist

1. Roadster
2. Maximum Security
3. Tacitus
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#434356 - 05/02/19 07:36 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Dan Tordjman

1. Game Winner
2. Improbable
3. Country House
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#434357 - 05/02/19 07:36 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Brian Zipse

1. Tacitus
2. Game Winner
3. Code of Honor
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#434358 - 05/02/19 07:38 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Monique Vág

How many lengths will be winner win by? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)

The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one length on 42 occasions. On the opposite end, the Derby has been won by four lengths or more 23 times.

In this year’s run for the roses there seems to be a lot of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to favor the front end. With a lot of vying for early positioning, a potential pace duel might ensue upfront. If that is the case, then it tends to benefit horses that are sitting just off the speed, and gives a fair shot for some of the deep closers to run down the frontrunners in the stretch.

The most likely case scenario for this bet to cash would be for faster fractions upfront and a bunched-up finish at the wire. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there is a lot of value in taking the underdog option for the margin of length victory.

Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)

The odds on this sure have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. Since 2002 there have been many near misses – six – with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, and California Chrome.

Triple Crown winners tend to come in bunches with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This trend seems to be really be factored in to the odds of this wager, and the recency bias of Justify capturing the bid last year.

With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it has been in years, and with no overwhelming favorite – cash on an easy proposition wager this weekend and bet the “No.”

The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)

This number seems to overvalue the fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Although there are two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will likely go off at higher odds than that at the call to the post.

Despite who performs or underperforms based on their odds, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner who records a DNF or has to pull up. This can often happen due to unforeseeable circumstances and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race is run smoothly, five of the 10 runners at 20-1 odds or higher will be breaking out of a gate with an even saddlecloth number. At +160, that seems like a lot of value to take a 50/50 proposition bet.
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#434359 - 05/02/19 07:39 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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J. Keeler Johnson

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$4 to win on #7 Maximum Security

$6 to win on #16 Game Winner

Betting both colts to win could yield a triple-your-money payoff.

Wagering Strategy on a $20 Budget

$3 exacta: 7,16 with 7,16 ($6)

$2 exacta: 7,16 with 5,17 ($8)

$1 exacta: 7,16 with 3,8,13 ($6)

Want to shoot for a bigger score? The Derby exacta can be lucrative.

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$1 exacta: 7,16 with 5,7,16,17 ($6)

$0.50 trifecta: 7,16 with 5,7,16,17 with 3,5,7,8,13,16,17 ($15)

$0.50 trifecta: 7,16 with 3,8,13 with 5,7,16,17 ($9)
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#434360 - 05/02/19 07:42 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Paul LoDuca

Game Winner
Roadster
Improbable
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#434361 - 05/02/19 07:44 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Neil Greenberg

Trifecta betting strategy

5 with 6,7 with 6,7,16

6,7 with 5 with 6,7,16

6,7 with 6,7,16 with 5

Superfecta betting strategy

5 with 7, 16 with 2, 6, 7, 16, 19 with 2, 3, 6, 11, 14, 19

7 with 5 with 6, 16 with 2, 3, 6, 11, 14, 19

7 with 16 with 5 with 2, 3, 6, 11, 14, 19
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#434430 - 05/03/19 11:25 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Xpress Bet Wagering Guide. Enjoy!


Attachments
XpressBet.pdf (17 downloads)
Description: XpressBet Wagering Guide


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#434442 - 05/03/19 11:44 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Haikal scratched from the Kentucky Derby field
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#434468 - 05/03/19 07:04 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Joe Drape

Tacitus
Roadster
Improbable
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#434469 - 05/03/19 07:04 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Melissa Hoppert

Improbable
Game Winner
Tacitus
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#434470 - 05/03/19 07:05 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Mike Battaglia

IMPROBABLE heads a very strong three-horse team for Bob Baffert who is gunning for a record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby win. All three have a legitimate chance but I like IMPROBABLE. He overcame a lot of pre-race gate problems and ran a big race to finish second in the Arkansas Derby. That was on a sloppy track, and the forecast is for a lot of rain Saturday. If he keeps his composure in the paddock and at the gate, he has the talent to win with Ortiz aboard. TACITUSis trained by Bill Mott and is coming into the Derby in top form. He has shown improvement in each of his four races and proved his toughness winning the Wood after overcoming a ton of trouble in the early going. Continued improvement will make him hard to beat. MAXIMUM SECURITY is the wild card in here. Debuting for a $16,000 claiming tag and winning the Florida Derby three months later to stay unbeaten in four starts. He did all his training in Florida for Jason Servis, and if he makes the lead, he could be very tough to deal with. BY MY STANDARDS has trained very well and has to be respected.
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#434471 - 05/03/19 07:07 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Eddie Olczyk

Fast Track Plan: On a dry track, it’s ROADSTER for me. And it has been for some time. I got ROADSTER at 30-1 in February and 16-1 in March in future bets. That said, I’m not going to bet him to win Saturday because of the futures coverage. But I’ll use ROADSTER a lot in the gimmicks on a fast track, including longshots LONG RANGE TODDY and CODE OF HONOR as well as stablemate GAME WINNER.

Wet Track Plan: If it’s an off track, things really change for me after the scratch of mud-loving Omaha Beach. I don’t know if ROADSTER can get up and down on a wet surface. CODE OF HONOR could be interesting at a price if it’s wet given his turfy pedigree. Shug McGaughey-trained Orb rallied in the slop to win here in 2013. If the conditions worsen, you’ve got to stay flexible; I know I will be. And you know where to find me – on the NBC telecast – for the last-minute thoughts.

Analysis: As for handicapping the race, it starts with the question: Where is the pace coming from? I think there’s more pace in this race than a lot of people believe. Everyone has their opinion and that’s fine. But the rail draw is going to force WAR OF WILL to be sent to the front early. He has to come out looking for position. MAXIMUM SECURITY should be right there. If you watched ROADSTER’s April 20 work at XBTV.com, he looked like he sling-shotted out of the gate. He had 5-lengths on his workmate in a few jumps; he’s got some natural speed. TAX is also drawn on the inside and won’t want to get buried in there. And LONG RANGE TODDY is another horse with speed coming out of the 18 post and he’ll have to get involved early due to his outside draw.

$100 Wagering Strategy (Fast Track)

$40 Win: ROADSTER ($40)
$20 Exacta: ROADSTER over LONG RANGE TODDY, CODE OF HONOR and GAME WINNER ($60)


$100 Wagering Strategy (Wet Track)

$40 Win: CODE OF HONOR ($40)
$10 Exacta Box: CODE OF HONOR, GAME WINNER and ROADSTER ($60)

Eddie's Fast Track Picks

ROADSTER
LONG RANGE TODDY
CODE OF HONOR

Eddie's Wet Track Picks

CODE OF HONOR
GAME WINNER
ROADSTER
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#434481 - 05/03/19 11:10 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Johnny Avello

1. War Of Will

They tried him on turf early in his career and he didn’t adhere to that surface. But he has excelled on dirt. His last outing, in the Louisiana Derby, was a horrible race. Workouts have been formidable, but the No. 1 post is a killer where he must put the pedal to the metal when the starting gate opens.


2. Tax

Not a poor race in any of his five starts. Training well. Distance shouldn’t be an issue, but this is a big stage for trainer Danny Gargan. Has had trouble out of the gate, so a clean start is imperative.


3. By My Standards

After four maiden special weight races, exploded at 22-1 to win the Louisiana Derby. Massively improved from his previous race, and I expect additional improvement here. Not positive if it’s enough to win, but that doesn’t rule out using him in exotics.


4. Gray Magician

His last outing in the UAE Derby in Dubai was his best race ever. But it was such a weak field, I don’t see him as a major player here unless Houdini materializes.


5. Improbable

Three wins and two narrow losses in five starts. Has solid numbers on the Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheets. Won huge at Churchill Downs in his second start, and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has brought him around nicely. He should be close to the pace, and I like the addition of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.


6. Vekoma

Lightly raced colt for trainer George Weaver, and I respect all he’s accomplished in his four starts. There’s not a lot to knock here. Not a huge surprise if he’s in the hunt.


7. Maximum Security

This horse might try to steal this race, and an off track could help his cause. Four wins in four starts. Trainer Jason Servis — whose brother, John, won the 2004 Kentucky Derby with Smarty Jones — is having a phenomenal year, winning at a 30 percent clip.


8. Tacitus

Bringing his A game to Churchill with three straight wins, most notably the Wood Memorial, and improving every race. The Tapit colt is trained by Bill Mott, who has never won the Kentucky Derby.


9. Plus Que Parfait

Won the UAE Derby at the end of March. He had a fortunate day, because there isn’t much in his past performances that entices me to use him in the top four.


10. Cutting Humor

Have the utmost respect for the connections (Starlight Racing and Todd Pletcher). But he must run a race that’s equivalent to his last, plus a 15 percent improvement to have a chance.


12. Code of Honor

Didn’t have a great start in the Florida Derby, but probably wouldn’t have mattered because Maximum Security dominated the race. Has won two of five career starts. Jockey John Velazquez is the reason to give this horse a second look, possibly in the tail end of trifectas and superfectas.


13. Win Win Win

Attempted to come from far off the pace in his last two races, and that type of running style might compromise his chances here. I don’t see him as a win candidate. Possibly show, show, show or no, no, no.


14. Master Fencer

All his races have been in Japan, and it’s hard to evaluate the competition he’s been running against. His numbers are too slow for me to use him anywhere in the top four.


15. Game Winner

After winning all four starts as a 2-year-old, he has finished second in his two tries in 2019. Although both of those races were respectable, I don’t think he was fully cranked up for either. Issues at Santa Anita forced his training and racing to be altered. Despite having to make a few adjustments, I think he’s sitting on a big race. Should be right there.


16. Roadster

The third horse in the race for five-time Kentucky Derby winner Baffert. Was one of the future book Derby favorites last year, but had a setback and was questionable to make it this far. Has come back strong and wouldn’t blame anyone for backing him.


17. Long Range Toddy

His last outing, in the Arkansas Derby, was dreadful, but the conditions were unfavorable, as the track was a mess. We might see similar conditions Saturday, so I don’t see it.


18. Spinoff

A horse that no one is talking about and has shown improvement in four straight starts. Finished second in the Louisiana Derby after being bumped at the start. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Manny Franco. Worth a second look.


19. Country House

Only win is a maiden special weight, but did grab a piece of the pie in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby. When the race starts, he might be in a quagmire with weather and traffic issues.


20. Bodexpress

Got in with the defection of Omaha Beach. Doesn’t have a win, but qualified by finishing second in the Florida Derby. If he can’t break clean and get close to the lead early, I don’t see much hope.
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#434482 - 05/03/19 11:12 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Todd Fuhrman

1 – War of Will – The Mark Casse-trained colt had it going well in New Orleans with back-to-back graded scores in the Lecomte and Risen Star before throwing a major clunker in the Louisiana Derby in March. Since then, this pony has been training quite well leading up to the Derby, however, after losing his footing early in his last race, he never really had a chance. He’ll be one of the ones up front early, and drawing the rail should suit him just fine in that regard. However, to win the roses, he will likely have to lead them wire to wire, and that seems unlikely against this crew.


2 – Tax – The Wood Memorial runner-up seems to be really flying under the radar this week and is going to offer terrific value at the wagering window. Tax ran a very big second to Tacitus in the Wood after a two-month layoff, and seems capable of even more improvement this Saturday. Speed figures fit very well here and even better on Thoro-Graph numbers. Pedigree screams 1 ¼. Lots of things to like, especially at this price.


3 – By My Standards – Took four tries to break his maiden, then won his first foray into stakes company in the Louisiana Derby. This horse is possibly peaking at the right time but was beaten by some very average horses earlier in the year. Trainer Bret Calhoun said, “We were surprised it took him quite so long to break through. He got beat in a maiden race at the Fair Grounds earlier in the winter, and I was very disappointed and I thought well, maybe he’s not the kind of horse we thought he was going to be. Three or four weeks later, he came back and broke his maiden, and it was almost like the light came on.” Just how much the light came on will be apparent on Saturday, and I’m actually inclined to take a stand against this guy.


4 – Gray Magician – Hasn’t seen the winners’ circle since last November, which isn’t much of a resume to support his case here. Ran decently enough in Dubai behind Plus Que Parfait, but is likely just not as good as most of these here. Pass.


5 – Improbable – Despite a winless 2019 so far this Bob Baffert trainee could still find himself as the post-time favorite. In both of his races this year, he’s had trouble relaxing early, and had every chance to get to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby but just couldn’t reel him in. There are possible questions about his ability to get the distance here, and that alone gives me caution. Certainly can win this one with his best, but is likely to offer little in the way of value and makes for a tricky situation at the window.


6 – Vekoma – This son of Candy Ride was an impressive winner of the Bluegrass Stakes last time out and has won 3 of 4 overall. Now, those wins haven’t been the most visually appealing, but he’s been winning, and that’s what counts. Definitely fits from the perspective of a number of speed figures, and he moves way up on a wet track. His tactical speed should suit him well, and he’s ran well in a crowd during the Bluegrass. Lots to like, and at a likely generous price. His success will depend on the kind of trip he can run here.


7 – Maximum Security – The Florida Derby winner is a real mystery as his connections chose to train him up to the Derby in Florida without really pushing him in works. Couple that with the fact he made his debut in December in a $16,000 maiden claimer and then he won a couple of lightly-regarded allowance races. Then, the explosive Florida Derby victory. Who the hell knows what he’s capable of, but what I do know is that he’s likely to face some traffic issues for the first time in his career, and how he responds will be critical. I think I’m going to make this guy beat me.


8 – Tacitus – Lots to love about the Wood Memorial winner. He’s the only horse to win graded stakes at two different tracks on the Derby trail and has worked sensationally since arriving at Churchill. The gray son of Pulpit is another who will likely move up on a wet track, and with rain in the forecast for Derby Day (what else is new), that’s looking more and more like a reality. The 8 hole should suit his tactical speed quite well, and Jose Ortiz is very capable in the irons to maneuver the Derby backstretch bumper cars. Very excited about this one.


9 – Plus Que Parfait – If you’ve read me for the last few years here at Bet the Board, you’re well aware that I’m no fan of the Dubai to Kentucky route. It hasn’t worked in 20 years, and I’m not expecting it to start now.


10 – Cutting Humor – So this guy is interesting. Had a pretty nondescript career going until the Sunland Derby, but boy did he wake up in that race. For an explanation of that performance, I defer to Steve Haskin of the Blood Horse: Cutting Humor’s 1:46 4/5 in the Sunland Derby is in a different stratosphere. No matter how you look at it that is 10 lengths to 22 lengths faster than any other prep. And the second and third-place finishers – Anothertwistafate and Mucho Gusto — were both coming off impressive grade 2 victories, which they won by seven lengths and 4 3/4 lengths, respectively. This reminds me of when Spend A Buck beat nobody in the listed Garden State Stakes at new Garden State Park in a blistering 1:45 4/5 at 2-5 and then ran the Derby field off their feet, winning with sheer speed.Now, that’s a bit to unpack, and it’s not to say I think Cutting Humor is going to win the Kentucky Derby, but given his price he definitely deserves a second look.


11 – Haikal – SCRATCHED

12 – Omaha Beach – SCRATCHED


13 – Code of Honor – Followed up a surprising score in the Fountain of Youth with a well-beaten 3rd in the Florida Derby. He’s definitely been working well since, and seems like a very professional race horse, but also seems like a bit of a plodder. He just appears like he might be slower than most of the other competition.


14 – Win Win Win – Go watch the Bluegrass Stakes. Watch his performance. Watch his closing kick. I’m not normally someone who falls in love with a deep closer for the Derby. Oftentimes, horses of this ilk sit in 19th or 20th, and do some measure of late running, but ultimately finish 6th or 7th. That’s a very real outcome for this guy. However, something about this year’s Run For The Roses feels ripe for a deep closer. Grandson of Smarty Jones looking to do big things on the 15th anniversary of his granpop’s Derby win. Under no circumstances would I be leaving him off any exotics.


15 – Master Fencer – About the only thing there is to recommend about this guy is the fact that he’s been 1 ¼ twice, albeit on the turf. Otherwise, he’s raced against fairly mediocre company overseas. Nah.


16 – Game Winner – With Omaha Beach scratched, he becomes the morning line favorite, but in case anyone hasn’t noticed, he’s winless in 2019. I suspect that if his trainer wasn’t Bob Baffert, we wouldn’t be having this conversation, yet we play the hand we’re dealt. I don’t think he was really any match for either Omaha Beach or Roadster in his last two races, and that makes his exalted status all the more curious. I don’t think he’s even close to the best of the Baffert bunch, and I won’t be betting him here.


17 – Roadster – If we are talking Baffert horses, this is more like it. He really seemed to grow up in the Santa Anita Derby, even if it seemed like Baffert was disappointed that Game Winner didn’t win. Only four lifetime races is a concern and just two races in the last eight months is even more worrisome, but Baffert has earned the benefit of the doubt so for that I’m assuming he will be ready to roar Saturday. My main concern is the 17 post, it puts Geroux in a position where he has to fire early, or take way back. There are angles to consider for win, but angles against. Hard to leave off exotics.


18 – Long Range Toddy – I’m generally of the opinion that you should ignore an Asmussen-trained horse at your own peril, but think I’m going to ignore my own advice here. He seems a step slower than a good portion of the field, and the outside post position is likely to leave far off the lead around the first turn. Just can’t recommend.


19 – Spinoff – I want to like the Pletcher trainee more than I do; every predictive speed chart suggests he’s sitting on a big improvement from a solid runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby. Still, I can’t help but think that he’s a bit green (four career starts against suspect competition until his last) and that the outside post slot is crippling. I’m not going to be surprised if he crashes the exotics at a solid price, but I would be shocked to see him in the winner’s circle. Fringe player on deep exotic tickets.


20 – Country House – Just one of six lifetime though Bill Mott doesn’t run horses in Grade Ones just for the heck of it. He looks like he has a nice late turn of foot, and will likely be passing some tiring horses in the stretch. Wouldn’t be outrageous to see him hit the board, but he’s in the bottom half of this crew for sure.


21 – Bodexpress – Drew into field after Omaha Beach was scratch, and is probably better than at least a handful of these. That said, he’s a maiden winless in five starts; plus he’s stuck out in the 20 post. He showed that he’s an improving sort with his Florida Derby runner-up finish, but he still seems a bit deep here. I won’t argue with you if you want to use him in your exotics. Chance for minor piece.


The Picks:

I will admit that I considered Omaha Beach a strong favorite; he appeared to be the absolute class of this field. His defection has created the most wide open field in the last few years. All things considered, I’m leaning towards Tacitus for the win. I think Win Win Win has a great chance as well, but he may have a bit too much work to do in the stretch to get up for the win. I expect the Baffert trio to be heavily involved as well, and I love Tax to crash the exotics at a big price.

1) Tacitus, 2) Win Win Win, 3) Roadster, 4) Tax, 5) Improbable

Recommended wagers: Win, Place, Show: Tacitus and Win Win Win

Exacta and Trifecta Box: Tacitus/Win Win Win/Roadster/Tax/Improbable/Cutting Humor
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#434483 - 05/03/19 11:15 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Game Winner (16): With Omaha Beach out it looks like he will go favored and is the one I liked the most prior to the scratch. Think this is his race to peak third off the layoff.

Roadster (17): The other Baffert horse who comes in off a win in the SA Derby over Game Winner but he had ideal circumstances that day.

Tacitus (8): Three consecutive victories now for this talented colt as Bill Mott seeks his first derby win. If the pace gets hot, which it very well could, he will come running.
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#434489 - 05/04/19 02:25 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Bob Neumeier

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $40 Exacta: GAME WINNER over IMPROBABLE ($40)
• $20 Exacta Part-Wheel: GAME WINNER over TACITUS and ROADSTER ($40)
• $20 Exacta: IMPROBABLE over GAME WINNER ($20)
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#434490 - 05/04/19 02:26 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Millie Ball

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $1 Trifecta Key Box: GAME WINNER with ROADSTER, COUNTRY HOUSE,
TACITUS ($18)
• $1 Trifecta Key Box: ROADSTER with GAME WINNER, TACITUS,
COUNTRY HOUSE ($18)
• $2 Exacta Box: GAME WINNER, IMPROBABLE, TACITUS,
COUNTRY HOUSE, TAX ($40)
• $24 Win: TACITUS ($24
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#434491 - 05/04/19 02:27 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Jeff Siegel

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $20 Win: IMPROBABLE ($20)
• $10 Exacta Key-Box: IMPROBABLE with MAXIMUM SECURITY, ROADSTER,
GAME WINNER ($60)
• $5 Exacta Key-Box: IMPROBABLE with BY MY STANDARDS,
VEKOMA ($20)
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#434492 - 05/04/19 02:27 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Jon White

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $2 Exacta Wheel: WAR OF WILL over ALL ($38)
• $1 Exacta Box: BY MY STANDARDS, CODE OF HONOR, GAME WINNER,
IMPROBABLE, TACITUS, TAX and VEKOMA ($42)
• $20 Win: MAXIMUM SECURITY ($20)
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#434493 - 05/04/19 02:28 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Dick Jerardi

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $100 Exacta: MAXIMUM SECURITY over BY MY STANDARDS ($100)
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#434494 - 05/04/19 02:28 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Steve Byk

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $2 Trifecta Part Wheel: IMPROBABLE, GAME WINNER, TACITUS with IMPROBABLE,
GAME WINNER, TACITUS with IMPROBABLE, GAME WINNER, TACITUS,
WIN WIN WIN, ROADSTER, TAX, COUNTRY HOUSE ($60)
• $10 Exacta Box: IMPROBABLE and MAXIMUM SECURITY ($20)
• $20 WIN: IMPROBABLE ($20)
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#434495 - 05/04/19 02:29 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Brent Musburger

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $50 Win/Show: TACITUS ($100)
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#434511 - 05/04/19 10:41 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Jody Demling

EXOTICS UPDATED MAY 2 AFTER OMAHA BEACH SCRATCH

Here's what I said prior to the scratch: "I picked Omaha Beach but was back and forth in the final week or so between the favorite and Improbable. It wouldn't surprise me at all if either of those two horses or Game Winner or Tacitus was wearing the roses on Saturday night."

So, why change things....I'll pick Tacitus but play the three:

Here's a look at a ticket I believe will not only cover you but has a chance to give you a solid return on your investment.

Let's play a $5 exacta box with the top four in the race. And then take Tacitus and play him in a $1 bet over the rest of the horses in the field.

$5 exacta box 5,8,16 ($30)

$1 exacta 8 over ALL ($19)

The trifecta will be a tough one to snare but we'll try two angles.

The first - and likely the wager I will make - its using the top three and then 10 horses.

$0.50 trifecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($24)

The second has Tacitus singled.

$0.50 trifecta 8 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($36)

The superfecta is a minimum of $1 on Derby Day, so you can spend a ton of money trying to hit it. The good thing is it will likely pay a ton....but hopefully it will pay off.

$1 superfecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,5,8,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,8,14,16,17 ($96)
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#434512 - 05/04/19 10:42 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Paul Leiner

Exacta box 4* Maximum Security/Roadster/Game Winner/Improbable

Maximum Security 10* win/place/show
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#434513 - 05/04/19 10:42 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Al McMordie

Game winner Win Place & Show
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#434515 - 05/04/19 10:55 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Vic Cangialosi

Maximum Security: Unbeaten colt should secure his spot near or on the lead with Omaha Beach out. Can he get the distance with Bob Baffert’s threesome pressing? Yes.

Roadster: May be best of Baffert’s trio after beating stablemate Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby. Trainer stays with Geroux even though Mike Smith is now free to ride.

Game winner: Won every game as a 2-year-old, but is winless through two this year. Narrowly defeated in the Rebel then SA Derby but raced wide in each.
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#434516 - 05/04/19 10:56 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Debbie Little

Improbable: The colt is one of three contenders trained by Bob Baffert, and the blinkers are coming off. Could give 2018 Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. his first Derby victory, and a sixth win for Baffert would tie him with Ben Jones for the most ever.

Maximum Security: Ran away with the Florida Derby on a loose lead. In a field without tons of speed, he could steal the race, giving trainer Jason Servis and jockey Luis Saez their inaugural Derby win.

Tacitus: Was able to rally and win the Wood Memorial after being bumped at the start — and with a field of 19, there is plenty of bumping that can happen in the Derby. Could give trainer Bill Mott, who saddled his first Derby starter in 1984, his first Derby victory.
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#434517 - 05/04/19 10:59 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Rob Blanchette

Maximum Security
Improbable
Game Winner
Roadster
Tacitus
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#434523 - 05/04/19 11:21 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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You can view live and update odds directly from Churchill here:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds
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#434647 - 05/04/19 03:02 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Hank Goldberg

(8) Tacitus (5-1)
(5) Improbable (5-1)
(13) Code of Honor (12-1)
(16) Game Winner (6-1)
(3) By My Standards (15-1)

Exacta box 5,8,13
Exacta box 5,8,16
Exacta box 3 with 5,8,13,16
Superfecta box 5,8,13,16
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#434658 - 05/04/19 04:48 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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E-Ponies

Best Bet to Win: Game Winner
Best Value to Win: Maximum Security
Live Long Shot: Long Range Toddy
Dad’s Value Play: Improbable

Exacta Bet: Box 1,5,7,16,18
Trifecta Bet: Box 5,7,16,18
10c Superfecta Box: 1,5,7,16,18
Pick 3 Bet: Use 7, 16, 18
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#434659 - 05/04/19 04:49 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Marco D’Angelo

My approach to the Kentucky Derby is to attack the Exacta and Trifecta. Good Luck today all of my exacta and Trifecta bets will have a total investment of $391. Two years ago we bet $390 and returned $9069 lets hope for another big score this year. I want to Thank everyone who has followed along with me. This is exactly how I am betting today.

Trifecta Wagers Total Bets = $266

$1 Trifecta 5-8-13-14-16 over 5-8-13-14-16-17 over 3-5-7-8-13-14-16-17 = $150*** (corrected amount)

$1 Trifecta 5-16 over 5-8-13-14-16-17 over 5-8-13-14-16-17 = $40

$.50 Trifecta 5-8-13-14-16-17 over 5-16 over 5-8-13-14-16-17 = $20

$1 Trifecta 5 over 8-13-14-16-17 over 8-13-14-16-17 = $20 (corrected amount)$1 Trifecta 8-13-14-16-17 over 5 over 8-13-14-16-17 = $20 (corrected amount)

$1 Trifecta 5 over 16 over 2-3-6-7-8-13-14-17 = $8

$1 Trifecta 5 over 2-3-6-7-8-13-14-17 over 16 = $8


Exacta Wagers Total Bets = $125


$1 Exacta Box 5-8-13-14-16-17 = $30

$2 Exacta Box 5-8-13-14-16 = $40

$5 Exacta Key 5 over 8-13-14-16-17 = $25

$2 Exacta Key 8-13-14-16-17 over 5 = $10

$3 Exacta Key 16 over 5-8-13-14-17 = $15

$1 Exacta Key 5-8-13-14-17 over 16 = $5


I will have a Win-Place-Show Bet on #5 Improbable Example $15 across = $45

1 will also have a smaller Win-Place-Show Bet on Long shot #14 Win Win Win Example $5 across = $15
On the WPS bets those were examples so what ever you bet on Improbable bet 1/3 as much on Win Win Win.
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#434660 - 05/04/19 05:01 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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My Plays for the KY Derby

$1 Exacta Box 2-7-8-14 $12
$1 Trifecta Box 2-7-8-14 $24
$20 WPS on #7,8,14 $180

$216 total.

Normally don't play three horses to WPS, however if one wins, you should get your money back overall and have a great shot at exacta, trifecta.

I am fading all of the Baffert horses and really liked Maximum Security at ML of 10-1. Surprised to see all the money come in on him as it has but what can you do. Have a feeling we are going to see Win Win Win closer to the front today and if he can find that closing speed, watch out. Tacitus should be hovering behind the pace and we'll see what he has at the end. My long shot addition is Tax. Great price and overlooked. If he strikes the board cha ching..........

Good Luck and don't over do it. It's one race and there will be a race somewhere 15 minutes later.

Enjoy !
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#434664 - 05/04/19 06:25 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Good Luck Everyone!!!
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#434666 - 05/04/19 08:01 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: Docwatson]
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1st: 20 Country House $132.40 $56.60 $24.60
2nd: 13 Code Of Honor $15.20 $9.80
3rd: 8 Tacitus $5.60
4th: 5 Improbable
5th: 16 Game Winner

$1.00 EXACTA 20-13 $1,504.80
$0.50 TRIFECTA 20-13-8 $5,737.65
$1.00 SUPERFECTA 20-13-8-5 $51,400.10
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#434667 - 05/04/19 08:15 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Just when you thought you've seen it all, you realize something utter stupid happened and now you've seen it all.

I and I am sure I am not alone here will ever recognize Country House as a Kentucky Derby champion. I have lost all respect for Bill Mott as well. I don't say anything of this lightly. I've been in this game way too long, my grandfather owned raced horses and I know the business all too well.

Flavien Prat should be ashamed of himself and its a disgrace to the sport of horse racing for what he did.

The stewards, I don't know their thought process and why they acted the way they did.

Let me say this did Maximum Security impede anyone? YES.

Did he impede Country House? NO!

Did Country House in any way get touched by any other horse on the turn? NO!

Tell me why Flavien Prat is calling for an objection? Wait you don't have to answer that. They knew there was some impediment but War of Will wasn't going to win the race, finished 8th and wasn't going to file an objection.

In a cheap attempt to STEAL the Kentucky Derby, Prat and Mott filed objection.

When interviewed after speaking with the stewards, he made up lies. Go back and listen to what he said, NONE OF IT HAPPENED to him or his horse. NONE OF IT.

When asked was his horse going to win the Derby on the track, he didn't answer YES, he gave some bull answer and avoided the whole question.

If he truly felt something happened to keep him from legitimately winning, he would've answered YES, that cost us the race, I had the best horse and should've won but that cost me and the horse the win. You speak with conviction and mean it. He didn't mean a damn word he said and knew what he and Mott were trying to do.

As for Mott, his answers were worse. Jockeys were almost thrown off their horses. Where, When?? Watch the video it never came close to happening. You wanted to win a Derby so bad, you stooped to this lower than low level of absurdity.

When in the winners circle, the crowd let them know it was bull as they poured in the boos. They tried talking louder than the boos but sorry, that didn't work.

A truly black eye moment for a sport still struggling for an identity. This isn't how you do it.
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#434672 - 05/04/19 09:37 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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In the scope of things, I really feel bad for the connections of Maximum Security. From the veterinarian to the groom to the outriders and all the people behind the scenes. There is going to be a lot of lost sleep and they will constantly be reminded when it comes to the Preakness and Belmont and we won't even begin to talk about next years Derby.

I hope they decide to run Maximum Security in the Preakness and he wins. Then run him in the Belmont and he wins.

He will truly be the people's Triple Crown winner no matter what any history book or stewards decision says.

As for those in the industry we really need to examine situations and make changes. To the casual once a year horse player they are left wondering what in the blue moon just happened here and a lot will be turned off by it and won't return. This is exactly why the sport is what it is today. They truly don't care about the players and with the high % takeouts of prize pools it's just a real crap shoot proposition for the common player.

I've been e-mailed by quite a few people that aren't members of the forum and thanked me for posting what I did. In their words it couldn't have been said better.

I say it could've have with no change in the race and sanctions brought forth to Mott and Prat for their highway robbery and suspicious tactics.
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#434676 - 05/04/19 10:27 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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#434679 - 05/05/19 12:34 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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#435232 - 05/08/19 06:38 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Lawsuit expected to be filed Thursday by Maximum Security owners.

I just went back and looked at all the selections here. Two people had Country House for third at best. Some of the cappers that used 10 horses in exactas and trifectas didn't even use Country House at all. Looking at the reviews that were written for each horse, it appeared he had no chance.

This whole situation is just bad for horse racing. While it is bringing publicity to the sport, it's not the type we need.

Doesn't appear MS is running in the Preakness and Mott claims CH has a cough and won't be racing in the Preakness either.

It's probably a good thing as I can imagine the rain of boos at PIM. NBC is the big loser as we are guaranteed to not have a TC opportunity for the Belmont. The asterisk KY Derby champ a no show.

If the connections were smart, they wouldn't race CH ever again. He may never win another race unless it's some 3 or 4 horse field.

Quit while you are ahead, no need to embarrass yourselves further.
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