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#434277 - 05/01/19 08:16 PM 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More
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Omaha Beach the favorite scratched.
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#434279 - 05/01/19 08:25 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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All you need to do is click and either save the PDF to your computer or you can simply read it.

This is hosted on the site, no viruses or goofy BS to deal with.


Attachments
KYDerby2019.pdf (83 downloads)
Description: KY Derby Past Performances


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#434280 - 05/01/19 08:28 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Joe Kristufek

Maximum Security
Omaha Beach SCR
Roadster
By My Standards
Win Win Win
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#434281 - 05/01/19 08:29 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Ed DeRosa

By My Standards
Tax
Improbable
Tacitus
Spinoff
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#434282 - 05/01/19 08:29 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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James Scully

Omaha Beach SCR
Tacitus
Game Winner
Code of Honor
Long Range Toddy
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#434283 - 05/01/19 08:30 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Kellie Reilly

Game Winner
Omaha Beach SCR
Code of Honor
Roadster
Tacitus
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#434284 - 05/01/19 08:30 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Vance Hanson

Omaha Beach SCR
Improbable
Maximum Security
Roadster
Game Winner
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#434285 - 05/01/19 08:30 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Scott Shapiro

Game Winner
Code of Honor
Improbable
Tacitus
Cutting Humor
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#434286 - 05/01/19 08:31 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS (Updated Wednesday)

Game Winner 9/2
Improbable 5-1
Roadster 5-1
Maximum Security 8-1
Tacitus 8-1
Code of Honor 12-1
Win Win Win 12-1
By My Standards 15-1
Vekoma 15-1
War of Will 15-1
Tax 20-1
Bodexpress 30-1
Country House 30-1
Cutting Humor 30-1
Haikal 30-1
Long Range Toddy 30-1
Plus Que Parfait 30-1
Spinoff 30-1
Gray Magician 50-1
Master Fencer 50-1
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#434350 - 05/02/19 07:32 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Tom Quigley

$3,000,000 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs

The Kentucky Derby (G1) increased its purse an extra million dollars this year and indicative of what a great betting race it is, the morning line favorite is 4/1. Let’s take a closer look at all 20 runners:

#1 WAR OF WILL draws the dreaded rail post position. After a pair of wins in the LeComte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds, this son of WAR FRONT stumbled early on in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and failed to fire late, but sports three straight bullet workouts prepping for this run. The forecast calls for rain; his lone start on a wet surface resulted in a five length maiden win over this track as a two-year-old.

#2 TAX won the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct two starts back and returned to complete the exacta spot behind #8 TACITUS in the Wood Memorial (G2). He’ll need to turn the tables on that aforementioned rival while facing many tough and new shooters that are the cream of the three-year-old crop this year. Has yet to race over a wet track.

#3 BY MY STANDARDS made his first start against winners in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and pulled off a 22/1 upset under jockey Gabriel Saez, who retains the mount for trainer Bret Calhoun. This colt by GOLDENCENTS has reportedly been working extremely well over the Churchill Downs dirt since his last win and may be coming into this race better than ever. His two career starts over wet tracks were solid-in the money finishes.

#4 GRAY MAGICIAN was last seen finishing three parts of a length behind #9 PLUS QUE PARFAIT in the UAE Derby (G2). His lone career victory came against maiden company as a two-year-old and his only start over a wet track resulted in his worst race yet; an eight length loss against allowance company. Will go off at a big price.

#5 IMPROBABLE, one of three Bob Baffert entrants, has never finished worse than second in five lifetime starts. He raced over the slop in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last time out after throwing a fit in the starting gate while adding blinkers and finished a length behind winner #12 OMAHA BEACH. His two-back-effort, in which he got tagged late by #18 LONG RANGE TODDY in the Rebel (G2), was also a solid try. The one time blinker experiment in the Arkansas Derby (G1) is over as blinkers are off today.

#6 VEKOMA dueled on the lead in the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) as the 7/5 favorite before shaking clear of his rivals down the stretch, finishing three-and-a-half lengths ahead of runner up #14 WIN WIN WIN. His lone loss in four lifetime starts came two races back when beaten by #13 CODE OF HONOR in the Fountain of Youth (G2). His dam was a Grade I winning sprinter, but his sire (CANDY RIDE) was a classic distance racer and can produce classic distance horses.

#7 MAXIMUM SECURITY debuted for a maiden $16K claiming tag at Gulfstream Park and won the race by almost 10 lengths. In three starts since, this Jason Servis trainee has won a pair of allowance races and the Florida Derby (G1), a race in which he routed for the first time and took the field gate to wire. This guy should be showing speed and he has won over a wet track to boot. Dangerous.

#8 TACITUS is a royally bred colt, by TAPIT out of Grade I winning mare CLOSE HATCHES, so he certainly has the pedigree to be a good one. The Bill Mott trainee most recently won the Wood Memorial (G2) and defeated a decent group in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) two races back when he added Lasix. He makes his third start off a layoff and has been improving with each and every start. He broke his maiden over a wet track, which is encouraging as well given the forecast calls for showers. Top North American rider Jose Ortiz rides.

#9 PLUS QUE PARFAIT was handily beaten in two straight races against WAR OF WILL at the Fair Grounds but rebounded in his most recent start, the UAE Derby (G2) and defeated #4 GRAY MAGICIAN by three-quarters of a length. He’ll need to prove his effort in Dubai was no fluke while facing a lot tougher company in this spot.

#10 CUTTING HUMOR comes off a gutsy win in the Sunland Derby (G3), defeating ANOTHERTWISTAFATE by a neck, who came back to run second in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland three weeks ago. One of two Todd Pletcher runners signed on in here, this son of FIRST SAMURAI gets the acid test here.

#11 HAIKAL sat off a wicked fast pace and ran on strongly to defeat next out winner MIND CONTROL and quality colt INSTAGRAND in the Gotham (G3) going a one-turn mile in the Gotham (G2) on March 9. He came back one month later, raced two turns for the first time, and finished behind #8 TACITUS and #2 TAX in the Wood Memorial (G2). His two races over wet tracks were solid, so a damp track won’t be an issue for this guy.

#12 OMAHA BEACH is the 4/1 morning line favorite. The Richard Mandella trainee showed natural speed and beat Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champ GAME WINNER and Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) victor IMPROBABLE in his two most recent starts, the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1). He is two-for-two over sloppy surfaces, so it doesn’t seem to matter whether he runs on a fast or wet track, and he has been improving steadily with age and racing experience. Mike Smith opts to ride this guy over #17 ROADSTER, too, which only adds to the appeal. Lots to like.

#13 CODE OF HONOR came from well out of it to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) two starts ago but had to settle for third when finishing behind #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY and #21 BODEXPRESS in his most recent start, the Florida Derby (G1). Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, who won the Kentucky Derby (G1) in 2013 with ORB.

#14 WIN WIN WIN was the runner up to TACITCUS in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) two races ago and had to settle for second again when finishing behind #6 VEKOMA in the Toyota Bluegrass (G2). Irad Ortiz Jr., his regular rider, opts to ride #5 IMPROBABLE, so Julien Pimentel, who was aboard this colt his entire two-year-old season, regains the mount.

#15 MASTER FENCER (JPN) most recently went off at 10/1 in a Kentucky Derby (G1) prep in Japan, the Fukuryu Stakes (G1), and flew late for second while racing a mile-and-an-eighth. The extra furlong should only be to his benefit, but whether he is good enough to defeat the best horses in this race remains to be seen.

#16 GAME WINNER is the second of three Bob Baffert entrants. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner and top two-year-old colt of 2018 has failed to win in two starts this year, though both efforts were respectable, finishing a nose behind #12 OMAHA BEACH in the Rebel (G2) and running second again, this time to #17 ROADSTER, after losing a lot of ground on both turns in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He has a grinding running style that suggests he should be just fine going a mile-and-a-quarter.

#17 ROADSTER rounds out the Bob Baffert trained trio of runners. Last time out, he stalked the pace before surging late to beat stablemate #16 GAME WINNER in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Like his two stablemates, this is his third start off a layoff, meaning he should be in peak condition heading into this race. Mike Smith has ridden all four career starts and sticks with #12 OMAHA BEACH, so Florent Geroux takes the call.

#18 LONG RANGE TODDY defeated #5 IMPROBABLE in the Rebel (G2) over a fast track but was beaten by double-digit lengths in the Rebel (G2) over a sloppy track. The forecasts calls for rain on ‘Derby Day, which might compromise this colt’s chances given how poorly he ran over a wet track last time.

#19 SPINOFF finished three quarters of a length behind #3 BY MY STANDARDS in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and faces the aforementioned rival plus much tougher company in this spot. He’s the second Todd Pletcher entrant in this race, who previously won the roses with SUPER SAVER in 2010 and ALWAYS DREAMING in 2017.

#20 COUNTRY HOUSE has finished behind a number of these rivals in recent starts, including #1 WAR OF WILL, #3 BY MY STANDARDS, #5 IMPROBABLE, #12 OMAHA BEACH and #19 SPINOFF. Top Southern California jockey Flavien Prat rides for the first time.

#21 BODEEXPRESS will need a defection to draw into the race from the also eligible list.

SELECTIONS

1. #12 OMAHA BEACH - Too many positives to ignore.
2. #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY - Undefeated colt comes from a high percentage barn.
3. #16 GAME WINNER - Always puts up a good showing.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#3 BY MY STANDARDS - Training like he’s ready to run a big one.


WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick and box my top three picks in exotics.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #12 OMAHA BEACH $5 Exacta Box: #12 OMAHA BEACH and #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY and #16 GAME WINNER ($30).
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#434351 - 05/02/19 07:34 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Dan Cronin

1. Game Winner
2. Improbable
3. Roadster
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#434352 - 05/02/19 07:34 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Megan Devine

1. Improbable
2. Game Winner
3. By My Standards
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#434353 - 05/02/19 07:34 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Emily Gullikson

1. Win Win Win
2. Code of Honor
3. Cutting Humor
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#434354 - 05/02/19 07:35 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Mike McCormick

1. Tacitus
2. By My Standards
3. Improbable
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#434355 - 05/02/19 07:35 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Nicolle Neulist

1. Roadster
2. Maximum Security
3. Tacitus
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#434356 - 05/02/19 07:36 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Dan Tordjman

1. Game Winner
2. Improbable
3. Country House
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#434357 - 05/02/19 07:36 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Brian Zipse

1. Tacitus
2. Game Winner
3. Code of Honor
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#434358 - 05/02/19 07:38 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Monique Vág

How many lengths will be winner win by? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)

The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one length on 42 occasions. On the opposite end, the Derby has been won by four lengths or more 23 times.

In this year’s run for the roses there seems to be a lot of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to favor the front end. With a lot of vying for early positioning, a potential pace duel might ensue upfront. If that is the case, then it tends to benefit horses that are sitting just off the speed, and gives a fair shot for some of the deep closers to run down the frontrunners in the stretch.

The most likely case scenario for this bet to cash would be for faster fractions upfront and a bunched-up finish at the wire. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there is a lot of value in taking the underdog option for the margin of length victory.

Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)

The odds on this sure have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. Since 2002 there have been many near misses – six – with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, and California Chrome.

Triple Crown winners tend to come in bunches with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This trend seems to be really be factored in to the odds of this wager, and the recency bias of Justify capturing the bid last year.

With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it has been in years, and with no overwhelming favorite – cash on an easy proposition wager this weekend and bet the “No.”

The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)

This number seems to overvalue the fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Although there are two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will likely go off at higher odds than that at the call to the post.

Despite who performs or underperforms based on their odds, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner who records a DNF or has to pull up. This can often happen due to unforeseeable circumstances and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race is run smoothly, five of the 10 runners at 20-1 odds or higher will be breaking out of a gate with an even saddlecloth number. At +160, that seems like a lot of value to take a 50/50 proposition bet.
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#434359 - 05/02/19 07:39 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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J. Keeler Johnson

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$4 to win on #7 Maximum Security

$6 to win on #16 Game Winner

Betting both colts to win could yield a triple-your-money payoff.

Wagering Strategy on a $20 Budget

$3 exacta: 7,16 with 7,16 ($6)

$2 exacta: 7,16 with 5,17 ($8)

$1 exacta: 7,16 with 3,8,13 ($6)

Want to shoot for a bigger score? The Derby exacta can be lucrative.

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$1 exacta: 7,16 with 5,7,16,17 ($6)

$0.50 trifecta: 7,16 with 5,7,16,17 with 3,5,7,8,13,16,17 ($15)

$0.50 trifecta: 7,16 with 3,8,13 with 5,7,16,17 ($9)
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#434360 - 05/02/19 07:42 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Paul LoDuca

Game Winner
Roadster
Improbable
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