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#434361 - 05/02/19 07:44 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Neil Greenberg

Trifecta betting strategy

5 with 6,7 with 6,7,16

6,7 with 5 with 6,7,16

6,7 with 6,7,16 with 5

Superfecta betting strategy

5 with 7, 16 with 2, 6, 7, 16, 19 with 2, 3, 6, 11, 14, 19

7 with 5 with 6, 16 with 2, 3, 6, 11, 14, 19

7 with 16 with 5 with 2, 3, 6, 11, 14, 19
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#434430 - 05/03/19 11:25 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Xpress Bet Wagering Guide. Enjoy!


Attachments
XpressBet.pdf (17 downloads)
Description: XpressBet Wagering Guide


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#434442 - 05/03/19 11:44 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Haikal scratched from the Kentucky Derby field
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#434468 - 05/03/19 07:04 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Joe Drape

Tacitus
Roadster
Improbable
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#434469 - 05/03/19 07:04 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Melissa Hoppert

Improbable
Game Winner
Tacitus
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#434470 - 05/03/19 07:05 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Mike Battaglia

IMPROBABLE heads a very strong three-horse team for Bob Baffert who is gunning for a record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby win. All three have a legitimate chance but I like IMPROBABLE. He overcame a lot of pre-race gate problems and ran a big race to finish second in the Arkansas Derby. That was on a sloppy track, and the forecast is for a lot of rain Saturday. If he keeps his composure in the paddock and at the gate, he has the talent to win with Ortiz aboard. TACITUSis trained by Bill Mott and is coming into the Derby in top form. He has shown improvement in each of his four races and proved his toughness winning the Wood after overcoming a ton of trouble in the early going. Continued improvement will make him hard to beat. MAXIMUM SECURITY is the wild card in here. Debuting for a $16,000 claiming tag and winning the Florida Derby three months later to stay unbeaten in four starts. He did all his training in Florida for Jason Servis, and if he makes the lead, he could be very tough to deal with. BY MY STANDARDS has trained very well and has to be respected.
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#434471 - 05/03/19 07:07 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Eddie Olczyk

Fast Track Plan: On a dry track, it’s ROADSTER for me. And it has been for some time. I got ROADSTER at 30-1 in February and 16-1 in March in future bets. That said, I’m not going to bet him to win Saturday because of the futures coverage. But I’ll use ROADSTER a lot in the gimmicks on a fast track, including longshots LONG RANGE TODDY and CODE OF HONOR as well as stablemate GAME WINNER.

Wet Track Plan: If it’s an off track, things really change for me after the scratch of mud-loving Omaha Beach. I don’t know if ROADSTER can get up and down on a wet surface. CODE OF HONOR could be interesting at a price if it’s wet given his turfy pedigree. Shug McGaughey-trained Orb rallied in the slop to win here in 2013. If the conditions worsen, you’ve got to stay flexible; I know I will be. And you know where to find me – on the NBC telecast – for the last-minute thoughts.

Analysis: As for handicapping the race, it starts with the question: Where is the pace coming from? I think there’s more pace in this race than a lot of people believe. Everyone has their opinion and that’s fine. But the rail draw is going to force WAR OF WILL to be sent to the front early. He has to come out looking for position. MAXIMUM SECURITY should be right there. If you watched ROADSTER’s April 20 work at XBTV.com, he looked like he sling-shotted out of the gate. He had 5-lengths on his workmate in a few jumps; he’s got some natural speed. TAX is also drawn on the inside and won’t want to get buried in there. And LONG RANGE TODDY is another horse with speed coming out of the 18 post and he’ll have to get involved early due to his outside draw.

$100 Wagering Strategy (Fast Track)

$40 Win: ROADSTER ($40)
$20 Exacta: ROADSTER over LONG RANGE TODDY, CODE OF HONOR and GAME WINNER ($60)


$100 Wagering Strategy (Wet Track)

$40 Win: CODE OF HONOR ($40)
$10 Exacta Box: CODE OF HONOR, GAME WINNER and ROADSTER ($60)

Eddie's Fast Track Picks

ROADSTER
LONG RANGE TODDY
CODE OF HONOR

Eddie's Wet Track Picks

CODE OF HONOR
GAME WINNER
ROADSTER
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#434481 - 05/03/19 11:10 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Johnny Avello

1. War Of Will

They tried him on turf early in his career and he didn’t adhere to that surface. But he has excelled on dirt. His last outing, in the Louisiana Derby, was a horrible race. Workouts have been formidable, but the No. 1 post is a killer where he must put the pedal to the metal when the starting gate opens.


2. Tax

Not a poor race in any of his five starts. Training well. Distance shouldn’t be an issue, but this is a big stage for trainer Danny Gargan. Has had trouble out of the gate, so a clean start is imperative.


3. By My Standards

After four maiden special weight races, exploded at 22-1 to win the Louisiana Derby. Massively improved from his previous race, and I expect additional improvement here. Not positive if it’s enough to win, but that doesn’t rule out using him in exotics.


4. Gray Magician

His last outing in the UAE Derby in Dubai was his best race ever. But it was such a weak field, I don’t see him as a major player here unless Houdini materializes.


5. Improbable

Three wins and two narrow losses in five starts. Has solid numbers on the Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheets. Won huge at Churchill Downs in his second start, and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has brought him around nicely. He should be close to the pace, and I like the addition of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.


6. Vekoma

Lightly raced colt for trainer George Weaver, and I respect all he’s accomplished in his four starts. There’s not a lot to knock here. Not a huge surprise if he’s in the hunt.


7. Maximum Security

This horse might try to steal this race, and an off track could help his cause. Four wins in four starts. Trainer Jason Servis — whose brother, John, won the 2004 Kentucky Derby with Smarty Jones — is having a phenomenal year, winning at a 30 percent clip.


8. Tacitus

Bringing his A game to Churchill with three straight wins, most notably the Wood Memorial, and improving every race. The Tapit colt is trained by Bill Mott, who has never won the Kentucky Derby.


9. Plus Que Parfait

Won the UAE Derby at the end of March. He had a fortunate day, because there isn’t much in his past performances that entices me to use him in the top four.


10. Cutting Humor

Have the utmost respect for the connections (Starlight Racing and Todd Pletcher). But he must run a race that’s equivalent to his last, plus a 15 percent improvement to have a chance.


12. Code of Honor

Didn’t have a great start in the Florida Derby, but probably wouldn’t have mattered because Maximum Security dominated the race. Has won two of five career starts. Jockey John Velazquez is the reason to give this horse a second look, possibly in the tail end of trifectas and superfectas.


13. Win Win Win

Attempted to come from far off the pace in his last two races, and that type of running style might compromise his chances here. I don’t see him as a win candidate. Possibly show, show, show or no, no, no.


14. Master Fencer

All his races have been in Japan, and it’s hard to evaluate the competition he’s been running against. His numbers are too slow for me to use him anywhere in the top four.


15. Game Winner

After winning all four starts as a 2-year-old, he has finished second in his two tries in 2019. Although both of those races were respectable, I don’t think he was fully cranked up for either. Issues at Santa Anita forced his training and racing to be altered. Despite having to make a few adjustments, I think he’s sitting on a big race. Should be right there.


16. Roadster

The third horse in the race for five-time Kentucky Derby winner Baffert. Was one of the future book Derby favorites last year, but had a setback and was questionable to make it this far. Has come back strong and wouldn’t blame anyone for backing him.


17. Long Range Toddy

His last outing, in the Arkansas Derby, was dreadful, but the conditions were unfavorable, as the track was a mess. We might see similar conditions Saturday, so I don’t see it.


18. Spinoff

A horse that no one is talking about and has shown improvement in four straight starts. Finished second in the Louisiana Derby after being bumped at the start. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Manny Franco. Worth a second look.


19. Country House

Only win is a maiden special weight, but did grab a piece of the pie in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby. When the race starts, he might be in a quagmire with weather and traffic issues.


20. Bodexpress

Got in with the defection of Omaha Beach. Doesn’t have a win, but qualified by finishing second in the Florida Derby. If he can’t break clean and get close to the lead early, I don’t see much hope.
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#434482 - 05/03/19 11:12 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Todd Fuhrman

1 – War of Will – The Mark Casse-trained colt had it going well in New Orleans with back-to-back graded scores in the Lecomte and Risen Star before throwing a major clunker in the Louisiana Derby in March. Since then, this pony has been training quite well leading up to the Derby, however, after losing his footing early in his last race, he never really had a chance. He’ll be one of the ones up front early, and drawing the rail should suit him just fine in that regard. However, to win the roses, he will likely have to lead them wire to wire, and that seems unlikely against this crew.


2 – Tax – The Wood Memorial runner-up seems to be really flying under the radar this week and is going to offer terrific value at the wagering window. Tax ran a very big second to Tacitus in the Wood after a two-month layoff, and seems capable of even more improvement this Saturday. Speed figures fit very well here and even better on Thoro-Graph numbers. Pedigree screams 1 ¼. Lots of things to like, especially at this price.


3 – By My Standards – Took four tries to break his maiden, then won his first foray into stakes company in the Louisiana Derby. This horse is possibly peaking at the right time but was beaten by some very average horses earlier in the year. Trainer Bret Calhoun said, “We were surprised it took him quite so long to break through. He got beat in a maiden race at the Fair Grounds earlier in the winter, and I was very disappointed and I thought well, maybe he’s not the kind of horse we thought he was going to be. Three or four weeks later, he came back and broke his maiden, and it was almost like the light came on.” Just how much the light came on will be apparent on Saturday, and I’m actually inclined to take a stand against this guy.


4 – Gray Magician – Hasn’t seen the winners’ circle since last November, which isn’t much of a resume to support his case here. Ran decently enough in Dubai behind Plus Que Parfait, but is likely just not as good as most of these here. Pass.


5 – Improbable – Despite a winless 2019 so far this Bob Baffert trainee could still find himself as the post-time favorite. In both of his races this year, he’s had trouble relaxing early, and had every chance to get to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby but just couldn’t reel him in. There are possible questions about his ability to get the distance here, and that alone gives me caution. Certainly can win this one with his best, but is likely to offer little in the way of value and makes for a tricky situation at the window.


6 – Vekoma – This son of Candy Ride was an impressive winner of the Bluegrass Stakes last time out and has won 3 of 4 overall. Now, those wins haven’t been the most visually appealing, but he’s been winning, and that’s what counts. Definitely fits from the perspective of a number of speed figures, and he moves way up on a wet track. His tactical speed should suit him well, and he’s ran well in a crowd during the Bluegrass. Lots to like, and at a likely generous price. His success will depend on the kind of trip he can run here.


7 – Maximum Security – The Florida Derby winner is a real mystery as his connections chose to train him up to the Derby in Florida without really pushing him in works. Couple that with the fact he made his debut in December in a $16,000 maiden claimer and then he won a couple of lightly-regarded allowance races. Then, the explosive Florida Derby victory. Who the hell knows what he’s capable of, but what I do know is that he’s likely to face some traffic issues for the first time in his career, and how he responds will be critical. I think I’m going to make this guy beat me.


8 – Tacitus – Lots to love about the Wood Memorial winner. He’s the only horse to win graded stakes at two different tracks on the Derby trail and has worked sensationally since arriving at Churchill. The gray son of Pulpit is another who will likely move up on a wet track, and with rain in the forecast for Derby Day (what else is new), that’s looking more and more like a reality. The 8 hole should suit his tactical speed quite well, and Jose Ortiz is very capable in the irons to maneuver the Derby backstretch bumper cars. Very excited about this one.


9 – Plus Que Parfait – If you’ve read me for the last few years here at Bet the Board, you’re well aware that I’m no fan of the Dubai to Kentucky route. It hasn’t worked in 20 years, and I’m not expecting it to start now.


10 – Cutting Humor – So this guy is interesting. Had a pretty nondescript career going until the Sunland Derby, but boy did he wake up in that race. For an explanation of that performance, I defer to Steve Haskin of the Blood Horse: Cutting Humor’s 1:46 4/5 in the Sunland Derby is in a different stratosphere. No matter how you look at it that is 10 lengths to 22 lengths faster than any other prep. And the second and third-place finishers – Anothertwistafate and Mucho Gusto — were both coming off impressive grade 2 victories, which they won by seven lengths and 4 3/4 lengths, respectively. This reminds me of when Spend A Buck beat nobody in the listed Garden State Stakes at new Garden State Park in a blistering 1:45 4/5 at 2-5 and then ran the Derby field off their feet, winning with sheer speed.Now, that’s a bit to unpack, and it’s not to say I think Cutting Humor is going to win the Kentucky Derby, but given his price he definitely deserves a second look.


11 – Haikal – SCRATCHED

12 – Omaha Beach – SCRATCHED


13 – Code of Honor – Followed up a surprising score in the Fountain of Youth with a well-beaten 3rd in the Florida Derby. He’s definitely been working well since, and seems like a very professional race horse, but also seems like a bit of a plodder. He just appears like he might be slower than most of the other competition.


14 – Win Win Win – Go watch the Bluegrass Stakes. Watch his performance. Watch his closing kick. I’m not normally someone who falls in love with a deep closer for the Derby. Oftentimes, horses of this ilk sit in 19th or 20th, and do some measure of late running, but ultimately finish 6th or 7th. That’s a very real outcome for this guy. However, something about this year’s Run For The Roses feels ripe for a deep closer. Grandson of Smarty Jones looking to do big things on the 15th anniversary of his granpop’s Derby win. Under no circumstances would I be leaving him off any exotics.


15 – Master Fencer – About the only thing there is to recommend about this guy is the fact that he’s been 1 ¼ twice, albeit on the turf. Otherwise, he’s raced against fairly mediocre company overseas. Nah.


16 – Game Winner – With Omaha Beach scratched, he becomes the morning line favorite, but in case anyone hasn’t noticed, he’s winless in 2019. I suspect that if his trainer wasn’t Bob Baffert, we wouldn’t be having this conversation, yet we play the hand we’re dealt. I don’t think he was really any match for either Omaha Beach or Roadster in his last two races, and that makes his exalted status all the more curious. I don’t think he’s even close to the best of the Baffert bunch, and I won’t be betting him here.


17 – Roadster – If we are talking Baffert horses, this is more like it. He really seemed to grow up in the Santa Anita Derby, even if it seemed like Baffert was disappointed that Game Winner didn’t win. Only four lifetime races is a concern and just two races in the last eight months is even more worrisome, but Baffert has earned the benefit of the doubt so for that I’m assuming he will be ready to roar Saturday. My main concern is the 17 post, it puts Geroux in a position where he has to fire early, or take way back. There are angles to consider for win, but angles against. Hard to leave off exotics.


18 – Long Range Toddy – I’m generally of the opinion that you should ignore an Asmussen-trained horse at your own peril, but think I’m going to ignore my own advice here. He seems a step slower than a good portion of the field, and the outside post position is likely to leave far off the lead around the first turn. Just can’t recommend.


19 – Spinoff – I want to like the Pletcher trainee more than I do; every predictive speed chart suggests he’s sitting on a big improvement from a solid runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby. Still, I can’t help but think that he’s a bit green (four career starts against suspect competition until his last) and that the outside post slot is crippling. I’m not going to be surprised if he crashes the exotics at a solid price, but I would be shocked to see him in the winner’s circle. Fringe player on deep exotic tickets.


20 – Country House – Just one of six lifetime though Bill Mott doesn’t run horses in Grade Ones just for the heck of it. He looks like he has a nice late turn of foot, and will likely be passing some tiring horses in the stretch. Wouldn’t be outrageous to see him hit the board, but he’s in the bottom half of this crew for sure.


21 – Bodexpress – Drew into field after Omaha Beach was scratch, and is probably better than at least a handful of these. That said, he’s a maiden winless in five starts; plus he’s stuck out in the 20 post. He showed that he’s an improving sort with his Florida Derby runner-up finish, but he still seems a bit deep here. I won’t argue with you if you want to use him in your exotics. Chance for minor piece.


The Picks:

I will admit that I considered Omaha Beach a strong favorite; he appeared to be the absolute class of this field. His defection has created the most wide open field in the last few years. All things considered, I’m leaning towards Tacitus for the win. I think Win Win Win has a great chance as well, but he may have a bit too much work to do in the stretch to get up for the win. I expect the Baffert trio to be heavily involved as well, and I love Tax to crash the exotics at a big price.

1) Tacitus, 2) Win Win Win, 3) Roadster, 4) Tax, 5) Improbable

Recommended wagers: Win, Place, Show: Tacitus and Win Win Win

Exacta and Trifecta Box: Tacitus/Win Win Win/Roadster/Tax/Improbable/Cutting Humor
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#434483 - 05/03/19 11:15 PM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Game Winner (16): With Omaha Beach out it looks like he will go favored and is the one I liked the most prior to the scratch. Think this is his race to peak third off the layoff.

Roadster (17): The other Baffert horse who comes in off a win in the SA Derby over Game Winner but he had ideal circumstances that day.

Tacitus (8): Three consecutive victories now for this talented colt as Bill Mott seeks his first derby win. If the pace gets hot, which it very well could, he will come running.
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#434489 - 05/04/19 02:25 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Bob Neumeier

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $40 Exacta: GAME WINNER over IMPROBABLE ($40)
• $20 Exacta Part-Wheel: GAME WINNER over TACITUS and ROADSTER ($40)
• $20 Exacta: IMPROBABLE over GAME WINNER ($20)
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#434490 - 05/04/19 02:26 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Millie Ball

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $1 Trifecta Key Box: GAME WINNER with ROADSTER, COUNTRY HOUSE,
TACITUS ($18)
• $1 Trifecta Key Box: ROADSTER with GAME WINNER, TACITUS,
COUNTRY HOUSE ($18)
• $2 Exacta Box: GAME WINNER, IMPROBABLE, TACITUS,
COUNTRY HOUSE, TAX ($40)
• $24 Win: TACITUS ($24
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#434491 - 05/04/19 02:27 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Jeff Siegel

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $20 Win: IMPROBABLE ($20)
• $10 Exacta Key-Box: IMPROBABLE with MAXIMUM SECURITY, ROADSTER,
GAME WINNER ($60)
• $5 Exacta Key-Box: IMPROBABLE with BY MY STANDARDS,
VEKOMA ($20)
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#434492 - 05/04/19 02:27 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Jon White

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $2 Exacta Wheel: WAR OF WILL over ALL ($38)
• $1 Exacta Box: BY MY STANDARDS, CODE OF HONOR, GAME WINNER,
IMPROBABLE, TACITUS, TAX and VEKOMA ($42)
• $20 Win: MAXIMUM SECURITY ($20)
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#434493 - 05/04/19 02:28 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Dick Jerardi

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $100 Exacta: MAXIMUM SECURITY over BY MY STANDARDS ($100)
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#434494 - 05/04/19 02:28 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Steve Byk

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $2 Trifecta Part Wheel: IMPROBABLE, GAME WINNER, TACITUS with IMPROBABLE,
GAME WINNER, TACITUS with IMPROBABLE, GAME WINNER, TACITUS,
WIN WIN WIN, ROADSTER, TAX, COUNTRY HOUSE ($60)
• $10 Exacta Box: IMPROBABLE and MAXIMUM SECURITY ($20)
• $20 WIN: IMPROBABLE ($20)
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#434495 - 05/04/19 02:29 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Brent Musburger

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $50 Win/Show: TACITUS ($100)
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#434511 - 05/04/19 10:41 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Jody Demling

EXOTICS UPDATED MAY 2 AFTER OMAHA BEACH SCRATCH

Here's what I said prior to the scratch: "I picked Omaha Beach but was back and forth in the final week or so between the favorite and Improbable. It wouldn't surprise me at all if either of those two horses or Game Winner or Tacitus was wearing the roses on Saturday night."

So, why change things....I'll pick Tacitus but play the three:

Here's a look at a ticket I believe will not only cover you but has a chance to give you a solid return on your investment.

Let's play a $5 exacta box with the top four in the race. And then take Tacitus and play him in a $1 bet over the rest of the horses in the field.

$5 exacta box 5,8,16 ($30)

$1 exacta 8 over ALL ($19)

The trifecta will be a tough one to snare but we'll try two angles.

The first - and likely the wager I will make - its using the top three and then 10 horses.

$0.50 trifecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($24)

The second has Tacitus singled.

$0.50 trifecta 8 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($36)

The superfecta is a minimum of $1 on Derby Day, so you can spend a ton of money trying to hit it. The good thing is it will likely pay a ton....but hopefully it will pay off.

$1 superfecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,5,8,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,8,14,16,17 ($96)
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#434512 - 05/04/19 10:42 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Paul Leiner

Exacta box 4* Maximum Security/Roadster/Game Winner/Improbable

Maximum Security 10* win/place/show
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#434513 - 05/04/19 10:42 AM Re: 2019 Kentucky Derby Info & More [Re: FREAK]
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Al McMordie

Game winner Win Place & Show
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