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#432830 - 04/21/19 05:30 PM HAPPY EASTER: One from Lone Star
Docwatson Offline
JV Squad

Registered: 04/03/19
Posts: 20
Loc: Virginia
Happy Sunday, and I suppose I'm a heathen since I handicapped some ponies today. A lot of tracks were dark on this Holy Day, but I found one race at Lone Star that is full of Nags so to speak. It has enough intrigue around that it could produce some MEAT. So here we go!!!

Instructions on how to wager using these selections is what's listed first.

Then on to today's races.

Always check back for scratches and track changes.

Early Betting:
Bet the two highest morning line's out of the top 3 Ranks

Live-odds betting: Bet as late as possible and require:
4-1 or higher on either of the top two ranked horses
5-1 or higher on the 3rd and 4th ranks however . . .
– If you are more risk-averse (and prefer more actual winners), then bet the first two ranks that qualify by those odds parameters.
– If you are looking for higher long-term returns (but with fewer actual winners), then bet the highest two odds
- I 99.99% of the time will bet a minimum of two horses to win. As long as the odds are right for the Ranked under Live-odds betting.
– If the field is small (5 or 6 starters), you can consider accepting down to 5-2 on the top 2 ranks and 7/2 on ranks 3 & 4
* When a lower-ranked horse is only one odds tick different than a higher ranked – prefer the best (higher) rank. Examples for ML above apply . . .
But of course late odds changes will come into play and make fine adjustments here very ‘iffy.‘ If you are playing live, it’s best to use near post time odds only as a verification of the ML qualifiers, or those within one odds tick of being qualifiers.
Top rank 5-1
2nd rank 2-1
3rd rank 5-1
4th rank 3-1
– prefer the top ranked and then consider the 3rd ranked – only if it is also a ‘final odds qualifier (5-1 of higher) near post time

Exacta-betting Guidelines:

Use each win-bet qualifiers as one of your “on top” horses. Use all the remaining Index horses underneath.
According to how many exacta combos you prefer (I suggest 8 to 16) – you will need to add another horse (or 2 if a Ranked horse is a late scratch) that is not on the List. I always try to list exotic add ins, but we also recommend using the lowest tote odds horse/s (not already Ranked) as your other “underneath” horse/s.
So – you will part-wheel each of the two win qualifiers to 4 or 5 others (also always including to each other) for a total of 8 to 16 exacta combinations.

Some because of Bankroll management prefer to only used the 4 Ranked horses. Some will use the Exotic add ins, and some will add others from their own handicapping.

Trifecta-betting guidelines:–Same as the exacta betting, only repeat the “underneath” horses from the exacta in the third slot as well – for a 24-combination ticket.
Example:1, 2 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 If you want a slightly larger ticket with a greater chance of hitting the higher payoffs – then you could add in the next odds horse in the 3rd slot; 1, 2 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 32 combination ticket . . .or –1, 2 to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 for a 40 combination ticket.

Layout: Date-Track-Race number-Program Number-Horses Name-Morning Line

April 21st 2019
Lone Star

Race 9: 7:30 EST

2 GIO POINT 15.0
9 LIL MONEY 10.0
Exotic Fill Ins: (1-10-8-5)

Best of Fortune!!!

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#432833 - 04/21/19 08:03 PM Re: HAPPY EASTER: One from Lone Star [Re: Docwatson]
Docwatson Offline
JV Squad

Registered: 04/03/19
Posts: 20
Loc: Virginia

April 21st 2019
Lone Star

Race 9: 7:30 EST

2 GIO POINT 15.0 F.O. 39.0
7 DIAMOND BOUND 2.5 F.O. 2.5 W
4 DREAMIN TIGER 4.0 F.O. 4.5
9 LIL MONEY 10.0 F.O. 4.5
Exotic Fill Ins: (1-10-8-5)

Results: 7-6-10 Paid: $7.20 Win

Cumulative Totals

# of Racing Days = 2 # of Races Issued = 9
# of Winners in the Ranks = 6 %winners from the ranks = 66.6%
# of Winners paying $20 or higher = 1 Highest pay = $51.40

Below are the tallies for the horses that qualified by the odds parameters given in the betting guidelines. The '$ in and $ out' figures based on $2 wagers.

All - Top - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
count- 9 – 9 – 9 – 9
qual – 4 – 2 – 3 – 6
hit – 0 – 0 – 0 – 2
hit % - 0 – 0 – 0 – 33.3%
In - $8 - $4 - $6 - $12
Out - $0 - $0 - $0 - $68.40
ROI – -100% - -100% - -100% - +570%


In - $240
Out - $569.60
ROI - +137%


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