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#431554 - 04/12/19 07:13 PM The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii
The projections posted here are based on player and team statistics, injuries, and past performance matchups data, accrued over the 2018-19 NBA season; and, although projected scores are indicated, the model has never proven a reliable indicator of over/under totals. Whatever value the model has is in the projected margin of victory (MOV); and itís on this MOV that the projected ATS pick is made, using the most current consensus lines available from the Vegas Insider website.

It needs to be noted, however, that although the projected MOV doesnít change, the modelís ATS Final Pick frequently does, as, obviously, such a pick is based on lines that change themselves Ė sometimes wildly; and itís against the Vegas Insider closing lines that the model is graded.

Much like the weekly NBA projections posted earlier, the playoff projections will be posted daily (in a weekly thread) as quickly as I can gather all the necessary data; so, depending on the editing features available, to view the most current projections you may need to scroll to the bottom of the thread. This first week, as I have the data needed, Iím posting the night before.

Finally, Iím a one-man band, and old as dirt, so apologies in advance if Iím a little late sometimes. Also, although I never fade my own projections, I seldom bet every game. Statistics can be a good guide, but they donít trump reality; and, if you watch the NBA like a fanatic (like me), you know that players and teams go hot and cold, often out of nowhere, and numbers alone can be a big lie.

Good luck to all.

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#431555 - 04/12/19 07:14 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii

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#431697 - 04/13/19 12:33 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
FREAK Offline
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 173611
Loc: Time to play the Game
I totally agree with you, not to mention the NBA season is just one big warm up to the playoffs anyway.

Get that paper !!!
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#431720 - 04/14/19 02:01 AM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: FREAK]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii

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#431933 - 04/15/19 02:53 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii

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#431971 - 04/15/19 05:57 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii
Saturdayís loss dropped the modelís MOV projection on the 76ers from 9.9 to 7.9 Ė a full 2 points; and thatís with Embid at 80%! Todayís line, however, has steadily increased from -7.5 to -8.5. Nevertheless, both NumberFire and Team Rankings are projecting a Netsí cover at +8.5. If Ebid is OUT this is an easy call, and the 76ers are supposed to make an announcement soon. But the line movement is puzzling.

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#432067 - 04/16/19 02:08 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii

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#432276 - 04/17/19 03:54 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii

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#432277 - 04/17/19 03:55 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii
Iíve got the Pistonsí Blake Griffin OUT for this one, and he makes a big difference in the MOV for the Bucks. At even 50% that MOV drops to 14.8, but with him OUT Ė which is how it looks right now Ė another big blowout is likely.

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#432381 - 04/18/19 01:25 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii

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#432515 - 04/19/19 02:01 PM Re: The Limper NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Junior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 303
Loc: Hawaii

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