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#419668 - 01/15/19 11:07 AM The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii
FWIW – This is the time of year that teams start to take steps to preserve the legs of their starters for the long haul. You will see more and more game-time starter scratches, reduced starter minutes, and slack-D play (where underdogs, suddenly unguarded, have a field day beyond the arc), all which throws lines and over/under totals into a last minute tizzy (to say nothing of ruining statistical projections based on past performance). Not quite tanking season, but projected blowouts become closer games, and closing lines can drop 5-10 points in the blink of an eye. When I used to play fantasy, after 50 games in I used the twitter feeds of a couple dozen team watchers – but it takes constant monitoring to stay ahead of changes, and I finally got too old to stay the course and finally called it quits.

Naturally, it gets more difficult to win at Spreads and Over/Under wagering; and, with only about 30 games left for teams to play, bad teams will start to obviously tank, and good teams will, just as obviously, play less robustly (especially on defense) – so the betting atmosphere becomes ever cloudier. Statistical projections – at best – can only reliably give you the straight-up winners, but margins of victory become less and less certain; and only if you stay right on top of specific teams to watch, can you wager successfully using the model’s numbers.

I’ll continue to post until it gets ridiculous, then pick it up again come the playoffs.

GLTA

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#419669 - 01/15/19 11:08 AM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#419670 - 01/15/19 11:10 AM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#419782 - 01/15/19 11:13 PM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii
FYI – The Thunder, the 8th best shooting defense in the NBA and favored by 10 over the Hawks, played no defense in last night’s game, allowing a bad Atlanta team a whopping 62% from the field including 48% shooting beyond the arc, and lost the game by 16! That’s what Slack-D strategy involves; most often on the road, it rests starters while not meaningfully reducing minutes, yet amounts to little more than practice.

I’ve tried nailing down situations where Slack-D is likely to rear its ugly head, and reduce it to numbers, but – aside from the obvious (road-game mismatches like this one) – there’s too much inconsistency among coaches, and takes too much subjective “knowing”, to do so. So, it’s up to the bettor to know good teams from bad, and know the situation relative to the age of the players involved and whether a team is all but locked into a playoff seeding.

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#419871 - 01/16/19 12:51 PM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
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Loc: Hawaii

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#419872 - 01/16/19 12:54 PM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420024 - 01/17/19 11:25 AM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420025 - 01/17/19 11:27 AM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii


Edited by WillyBoy (01/17/19 11:28 AM)

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#420138 - 01/18/19 10:57 AM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420141 - 01/18/19 10:59 AM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420314 - 01/19/19 12:03 PM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420316 - 01/19/19 12:05 PM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420447 - 01/20/19 12:46 PM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420448 - 01/20/19 12:48 PM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420529 - 01/21/19 11:57 AM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420530 - 01/21/19 12:00 PM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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#420647 - 01/22/19 10:54 AM Re: The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/15 to 1/21 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Online   content
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Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 299
Loc: Hawaii

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