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#406730 - 10/15/18 11:53 PM The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii
Up until now, the Limper has acted like a blind man throwing darts at a moving dartboard. The results so far are right down there with the first couple of seasons when I hatched this model, and it’s hard – but not impossible – to explain.

All statistical projections are based on prior performance numbers (PPNs), and the numbers I use are completely reliable. Also, PPNs are – honest to goodness – fair indicators of what will happen in the future. These are demonstrable facts. When I run these numbers through the first 6 weeks, the SU and ATS results are through the roof, which, of course, are false indicators of reliability. However, side by side comparisons of projected stats, game by game, of say – yards gained rushing, or pass completion percentage, vs specific matchups - are well within the margin of error – which means the model’s calculations are valid. Valid, but – when it comes to being indicators of future events – sadly wrong. At least, wrong thus far.

What has happened this season is that teams and players have been – over and over – either exceeding their PPNs or failing to meet to meet those PPNs by wide margins – from one week to the next. As a rule, this doesn’t happen as routinely as it has this season and, unless this season ends up as an extreme outlier, this should settle down.

At least, that’s the hope.

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#406731 - 10/15/18 11:54 PM Re: The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii
Initial Projections for the Coming Week's Games




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#406903 - 10/17/18 04:13 PM Re: The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii
Final Projections for TNF




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#407016 - 10/18/18 03:27 PM Re: The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii

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#407137 - 10/19/18 04:19 PM Re: The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii
Every year since I began posting my model’s projections, I have tried to develop a reliable Over / Under projection model. Never succeeded. But, like they say: if you don’t succeed the first time, try, try again – and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again…

I ran it for weeks 5 and 6, and it went 8-2, so based on data thru week six, this is the 2018 version – FWIW.

(The Delta, as indicated, is the difference between the model’s projected totals and the current O/U line. There is no correspondence with the model’s projected spread totals, and the totals used to determine the O/U picks. Posted are the top 5 games, ranked according the delta.)

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#407138 - 10/19/18 04:21 PM Re: The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii

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#407358 - 10/20/18 01:54 PM Re: The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii

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#407568 - 10/22/18 02:01 PM Re: The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii

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#407655 - 10/22/18 11:23 PM Re: The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 7 [Re: WillyBoy]
WillyBoy Offline
Senior

Registered: 06/23/18
Posts: 468
Loc: Hawaii

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