Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks

Mike Battaglia

#14 Mendelssohn-3 million dollar colt has won 4 of 7 including the Breeders Cup JUF Turf and the UAE Derby last out by 18 lengths. Trainer O’Brien is one of the sharpest in the world and he didn’t come all this way for a Mint Julep, well not just a Mint Julep anyway.

#7 Justify-The favorite and deserving so. He is a perfect three for three and is getting faster with each race. However, in two of his three wins, he took advantage of a speed favoring track to go wire to wire. He is the talk of the town, but 3-1, in a 20 horse field, with a runner who has only 3 starts, we have to try to beat him.

#9 Hofburg- long shot play. This is another runner who has only 3 starts but he has only 1 win. Trainer Mott, as our followers know, is one of our favorite gambling trainers and it would be the ultimate ticket for him to cash on his 20-1 Derby winner.

#16 Magnum Moon- is a perfect four for four and is another who is getting faster with each start. He drew off to win the ARK Derby last out, is working well, has tactical speed and should not be over looked.

#5 Audible- finished third in his debut then rattled off 4 wins in a row including the Florida Derby last out which he won from off the pace. The Derby Super usually pays huge and this one could easily run up in there.

Eddie Olczyk

#6 Good Magic

Exactas and Trifectas: 6 over 5,7,9,10,18

I wrote the above back in 2013 and you can go back in time and see the post.

Derby Day has always been special for me and I sit here while writing this and think of the great Sunday Silence.

I am looking forward to the race in about an hour.

My selections for the race are as follows:

#5 Audible to W/P/S

I am looking for him to be sitting behind the pace and at the top of the stretch he'll switch gears and come rolling down the center of the track to win the roses.

Exacta #5 Audible, #7 Justify, #11 Bolt D'Oro

Trifecta

5/7/11
5/7/11
5/7/8/9/10/11/12/15/19

Good Luck and enjoy the races. The rain at the track is only tears of joy from those that departed from up above.

ATS Lock Club


2018 Kentucky Derby

Churchill Downs, Race 12 -*(6:50pmEST)

5 Audible
7 Justify
20 Combatant
16 Magnum Moon
11 Bolt d’Oro

EXTRAS:
4 Flameaway
8 Lone Sailor
9 Hofburg
10 My Boy Jack
12 Enticed

Bet the top horse to win and place.

Use all others for your exotic bets (ie. Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta boxes)*

Marco Derby Play


#14 Mendelssohn - Top Choice suggest Win-Place-Show Wager

Love the Post Position as he will have extra room at the break being the last horse in the Main Gate as both the #14 and #15 post has the benefit of the extra space between the main gate and auxiliary gate. I know that horses shipping from overseas haven’t had success in the past in the Kentucky Derby but this horse has shown he can ship from overseas and win as he won here in the BC Juvenile Turf Race. It also must be noted that he raced overseas on Oct 14 then at DelMar on Nov 3rd that was pretty remarkable for a 2 year old to run two races so close together and have a grueling ship thrown in on top of that. Mendelssohn raced on dirt for the first time in his last start and had his best race of his career winning the UAE Derby by 18 1/2 lengths. With 7 lifetime starts this horse has the perfect foundation and shipping all over the world has given him experience to handle all kinds of different distractions. With 5 starts at 2 and 2 starts at 3 this horse is fresh and ready to go. Note Mendelssohn has victories carrying 126 Lbs, 131 Lbs and 134 Lbs no other horse in this Derby field has carried more than 124 lbs in victory.



#6 Good Magic - Long shot Pick suggest Win-Place-Show Wager for 1/2 of Mendelssohn

I love how this horse has been brought into this race. He had 3 starts as a two year old and even though he hadn’t broke his maiden the connections knew what they had and raced him in the BC Juvenile and he exploded in the stretch to win going away. This year he has 2 starts a 3rd in the Fountain of Youth a race that Chad Brown said he was probably short being the first start of the year . But came back in the Bluegrass and once again showed that explosion in the stretch to pull away. Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby as he owns tactical speed to get away where he wants which is just off the pace setters in a stalking position so that when he does make his move he gets the jump on all the closers. Good Magic is 5 for 5 for hitting the board and with just 5 starts still has potential for another big jump up talent wise. Good Magic is my long shot choice.


#7 Justify


In a few weeks we could be talking about Justify and using words like Super Horse, possible Triple Crown Winner but right now we are asking him to do a lot of things he has never done before. We all know about the curse of Apollo as no horse that hasn’t raced as a 2 year old has won the Derby since 1882 when Apollo did it. With only 3 starts I’m more concerned about how will he react to racing on another surface as all three races were at Santa Anita. How does he react to not being on the lead as Promises Fulfilled with be the horse setting the pace? He’s only raced once against stakes company and that was in the Santa Anita Derby and honestly there was only one other horse in that 7 horse field that had a chance and that was Bolt D’Oro who didn’t need the points to get into the Derby as he already had enough points to get in the Derby but Justify did need to win. How will Justify handle the large field as all 3 of his races had short fields. Again in a few weeks we will have all of these answers but right now at a short price I’m not going to pay to find out but with that said he has to be on our tickets because I don’t want to miss an exacta or Trifecta because I left him off the ticket.



#11 Bolt D’Oro

Picks up Victor Espinoza as Javier Castellano chooses to ride Audible after being aboard Bolt D’Oro the last 2 races. Some will look at that as a strike against Bolt D’Oro but I don’t as Todd Pletcher will supply Castellano with many more live mounts than Mick Ruis will so this was a business decision I feel more than a talent decision. Victor clearly knows how to win Triple Crown Races so I’m fine with him aboard. There is too much value to leave him off the ticket as because he was clearly beat by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby people are now down on him. Remember he didn’t need the points I don’t think they raced him all out I think they wanted to leave something in the tank for the Derby. Justify was on an uncontested lead with moderate fractions. He wasn’t getting by him that day but Justify won’t be on a uncontested lead today and the difference in price makes this horse attractive. Bolt D’Oro will be in that preferred stalking group and is 6 for 6 in the money and 5 of his 6 races were graded stakes. He’s clearly the most accomplished against the toughest completion in the field. Bolt D’Oro is the forgotten horse with a ton a value and will be on all my tickets

Here is my exact Betting Ticket how I am playing the Kentucky Derby. I want to thank all of you for your support and Good Luck to us all.



Trifecta Wagers Total Bets = $240


$1 Trifecta 6-7-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 4-5-6-7-9-10-11-14-16-18 = $160

$1 Trifecta 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40

$1 Trifecta 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40




Exacta Wagers Total Bets = $155


$1 Exacta Box 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $30

$3 Exacta Box 6-7-11-14 = $36

$4 Exacta Key 14 over 6-7-9-10-11 = $20

$2 Exacta Key 6-7-9-10-11 over 14 = $10

$3 Exacta Key 6 over 7-9-10-11-14 = $15

$2 Exacta Key 7-9-10-11-14 over 6 = $10

$3 Exacta Key 14 over 4-5-16-18 = $12

$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 14 = $6

$2 Exacta Key 6 over 4-5-16-18 = $8

$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 6 = $8

Wizard

Justify
Mendelssohn
Good Magic
My Boy Jack
Hofburg

Win bet Justify

Tri key Justify
7 with 4-5-6-9-10-11-14-17-18 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-19=$108 for a $1.00 wager

Tri Justify for 2nd
5-6-9-10-11-14-18 with 7 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-19=$84.00 for $1.00

This isn't the full report, not sure why it wasn't shared in full.

2018 Kentucky Derby order of finish

1. Justify
2. Good Magic
3. Audible
4. Instilled Regard
5. My Boy Jack
6. Bravazo
7. Hofburg
8. Lone Sailor
9. Vino Rosso
10. Solomini
11. Firenze Fire
12. Bolt d’Oro
13. Flameaway
14. Enticed
15. Promises Fulfilled
16. Free Drop Billy
17. Noble Indy
18. Combatant
19. Magnum Moon
20. Mendelssohn

Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program totaled $225.7 million, an 8% increase over the 2017 total and previous record of $209.2 million.

Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby race increased 8% to $149.9 million from the previous record of $139.2 million set last year.

And that was obviously good for business.

“We are deeply grateful to all of the fans of the Kentucky Derby around the world who once again made this an amazing and memorable experience,” said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of Churchill
Downs Incorporated. “We expect the Kentucky Derby Week Adjusted EBITDA to reflect another record with $11.0-to-$13.0 million of growth over last year.”

e also know that online wagering accounted for a sizable amount of that. According to Churchill Downs, handle for the day at its online wagering platform TwinSpires was $39.2 million, up 15 percent from 2017. For the featured race alone, online handle at the site and mobile app clocked in at $24.6 million, up 18 percent year over year.

That’s despite the fact that the site was not taking bets for a period of what appears to be 15 to 20 minutes leading up to post time because of technical difficulties. And those TwinSpires numbers don’t include the wagering at several other online horse betting sites.

Put simply, online wagering at just one online betting portal was about 16 percent of total handle for the Derby.

If you don’t do online sports betting, you’re doing it wrong

The lesson for states looking to legalize sports wagering should the federal ban be struck down in the Supreme Court sports betting case is simple: You’re limiting yourself if you don’t legalize online betting in parallel with wagering at land-based facilities (casinos, tracks, etc.). You’re not going to realize the full amount of revenue for gaming companies and in turn tax receipts without online betting.

The horse racing industry has obviously embraced online wagering. And there’s no telling how much more of a drop-off it would have experienced without it. TwinSpires, for its part, was advertising incessantly during Saturday’s races.

And, of course, we have the example of Nevada sports betting. There, handle has increased steadily because of the advent of mobile wagering.

If you’re a state that wants to get the most out of legal sports betting, you’d be silly not to have online wagering. Thankfully, most states considering sports betting bills are looking at legalizing it.

The bottom line: Online wagering is clearly helping increase the amount wagered on horse races. And while the horse racing industry isn’t always a model for success, here it’s a guidepost for what should happen for sports betting in the US.