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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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The field


1.na) -- 50-1Bravazo broke maiden here, but I can't see him being much more than a nuisance on the lead.na winner of the Risen Star in a race that hasn't proven to be very productive and was oddly run.na has won Triple Crown races with some hard-to-figure longshots before, but I would be stunned if this was one of them. I'm totally tossing him.

14. Mendelssohn (Ryan Moore/Aidan O'Brien) -- 5-1Until one of the UAE Derby winners comes here and runs well in the Derby, I'm standing against them. Mendelssohn had everything his way in crushing a weak field in the UAE Derby, and he beat me in the BC Juvenile Turf when he was sent off as the 5-1 favorite one race after being 50-1. He'll probably be just behind the leaders, and then it's just a matter of how he handles dirt in his face. In an odd quirk, Post 14 hasn't produced a winner since 1961, the longest drought for any post which has produced a winner. In a field this size, you need to stand against someone. I'll use the past history of no UAE Derby winner finishing better than sixth as one of the reasons Mendelssohn will not be on my ticket.

15. Instilled Regard (Drayden Van Dyke/Jerry Hollendorfer) -- 50-1Instilled Regard drew into the field following a couple of injury defections. He had some good form as a 2-year-old and early as a 3-year-old, but hasn't really improved to be a legit contender here. Any horse who was able to run with McKinzie has some talent, and while I don't think he can contend for the win, I'll use him for third and fourth.

16. Magnum Moon (Luis Saez/Todd Pletcher) -- 6-1He seems to be getting very little respect leading up to the race with how he finished in the Arkansas Derby. Like Justify, Magnum Moon was unraced at 2 and is undefeated. He's one of three Pletcher trainees starting from the auxiliary gate and will have to avoid being wide around that first turn. Well-regarded Arkansas Derby winners typically hold their form and run well in Louisville, as the seven horses since 2004 that were a top-four betting choice combined to go 2-1-3 in the top three, with Classic Empire's fourth-place finish last year the worst of the bunch. This is Luis Saez's first real live mount in the Derby, so let's see how he handles it. My guess is he will be pretty aggressive, and it could cost Magnum Moon late. He can win, but I'm inclined to stand against.

17. Solomini (Flavien Prat/Bob Baffert) -- 30-1The "other" Baffert horse is a one-pace, consistent type who has been soundly beaten by a few of the other logical contenders in there. Jockey Flavien Prat typically gets his horses to finish well, and that will be to Solomini's advantage. Nobody has won from Post 17, and Solomini won't be the first, but he could be worth using for third and fourth. He's never ran a bad race, but he's also never ran a good enough race to win here.

18. Vino Rosso (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher) -- 12-1He was the winner of the Wood Memorial, but that hasn't been a good thing lately in terms of Derby success. Since Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood in 2000, 10 of 13 Wood winners ran in the Derby as a top-5 betting choice, and seven of the 13 sent off as a top-3 choice. Just two finished in the money: Empire Maker (second in 2003) and Congaree (third in 2001).I didn't like his races at Tampa at all, but despite the bumping with Enticed, his Wood was a lot better. Will the same jockey/trainer combo win two years in a row? Doubtful, but I'll still be using him in the exotics, as we know he can finish from off-the-pace and the price will be right.

19. Noble Indy (Florent Geroux/Todd Pletcher) -- 30-1I don't see any way he works out a trip from here. He's a speed horse from an outside post that has to go, and that makes him far more likely to finish last than first.

20. Combatant (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen) -- 50-1I'll be using him underneath, as he reminds me a bit of Lookin at Lee (who finished second in the Derby last year) and Creator (who won the Belmont Stakes in 2016). He broke his maiden for fun here in his second lifetime start and can finish. He won't give Steve Asmussen his first Derby win in 19 tries, which is the most number of starts without a win in Derby history, but he will make a good account of himself from way out of it at a huge number.

$0.50 trifecta 7/2-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-20/2-8-10-11-20 $25.00
$0.50 trifecta 7/2-8-10-11-20/2-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-15-16-17-18-20 $27.50
$0.50 trifecta 5-6-11-18/7/2-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-15-16-17-18-20 $22.00
$1.00 trifecta 7/11/2-5-6-8-9-10-14-15-16-17-18-20 $12.00
$1.00 trifecta 11/7/2-5-6-8-9-10-14-15-16-17-18-20 $12.00
$1.00 trifecta 7/2-5-6-8-9-10-14-15-16-17-18-20/11 $12.00
$1.00 trifecta 11/2-5-6-8-9-10-14-15-16-17-18-20/7 $12.00
$1.00 exacta box 2-5-6-8-10-11-18 $42.00
$1.00 exacta box 5-6-7-10-11-18 $30.00
$2.00 exacta 7/2-5-6-8-10-11-18-20 $14.00
$1.00 exacta 2-5-6-8-10-11-18-20/7 $7.00
$2.00 place-show 2-8-10-20 $16.00
$4.00 win-place-show 11 $12.00


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Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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