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#388468 - 04/28/18 04:27 PM 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks
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Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments


Justify

JP: Remarkable the progress he has made in 48 days, beat top-class colt in SA Derby. Very talented.
MW: The way he toyed with Bolt d'Oro in stakes and nine-furlong bow left zero doubt he's the real deal.

Magnum Moon

JP: Not crazy about way he drifts through lane, but crazy about the talent he possesses. Big chance.
MW: After sitting off the lead and romping in his first three starts, he wired and romped in Ark. Derby.

Mendelssohn

JP: Had ideal pace scenario, crushed rivals in Dubai. World-class trainer, rider take aim at Derby.
MW: Most dangerous Derby threat ever to exit Dubai, but that alone doesn't make him the winner.

Audible

JP: Got a terrific setup in the Florida Derby, and has really come on this winter at Gulfstream. Solid.
MW: Stalked from close up and came from far back in his two big GP wins. He's not pace-dependent.

Bolt d'Oro

JP: Tried twice to catch Justify in SA Derby, couldn't do it, but was in unenviable chasing role. Two solid preps.
MW: Still have immense respect for his abilty, which makes what Justify did all the more impressive.

Good Magic

JP: Took step forward off Fountain of Youth, mirroring progress at 2; third start last year his best.
MW: Would have been bad if he didn't improve off 3yo bow. Just donít think Blue Grass was strong.

Vino Rosso

JP: Overcame slow start, wide trip to win Wood, but thought race shape helped. Johnny V.'s choice.
MW: Ran in the Wood the way I thought he might in his disappointing Tampa Bay Derby outing.

Noble Indy

JP: Improved effort with blinkers added. Was close to strong pace, battled back courageously to win.
MW: Demonstrated heart to come again late, but he came back on two rivals who seem quite limited.

Combatant

JP: Was compromised by slow pace, wide trip, but doesn't quite finish off his races as one might hope.
MW: He, along with a handful listed below, just haven't gone anywhere in terms of their Beyer Figs.

Enticed

JP: Took solid bump, couldn't match strides late with Vino Rosso. Won CD's biggest 2yo race last fall.
MW: He wasn't going to beat Vino Rosso even if he wasn't bumped. Still wonder about him going long.

Flameaway

JP: Truly admirable how he battles every single time. Was part of Blue Grass pace, held on well.
MW: Yes, he's very game. He's also in a Beyer rut of 93-92-93, and that just won't win the Derby.

Free Drop Billy

JP: Was deservedly moved up to third via DQ in Blue Grass, but seems stuck at same level this spring.
MW: Has the points to participate. What he doesn't have is a race that suggests he can win this event.

Hofburg

JP: Liked maturity he showed for a horse with so little experience. Had to wait, tried, second best.
MW: Truth is, nearly every horse here is lightly raced. But he has more room to improve than most.

Regard

JP: SA Derby pace didn't help, but not sure he's progressed since Los Alamitos Futurity in December.
MW: Wasn't that fast Beyer-wise to begin with, and he's gone the wrong way in his last two starts.

My Boy Jack

JP: Admire how he ships everywhere and always runs well, just think he's a cut below the best here.
MW: Note how when he didn't get an ideal setup in the Lexington, his Beyer fell by a few points.

Solomini

JP: Got outside in Ark. Derby, which is what he prefers, but is too one-paced to quicken when needed.
MW: Like Flameaway, he's been stuck in 92 and 93 Beyer territory for a while, and that won't cut it.

Bravazo

JP: Was trying to lug out entire way in Louisiana Derby. Hard to like off poor final prep six weeks out.
MW: For whatever reason, his La. Derby was horrific. Still, even his Risen Star win was only so-so.

Firenze Fire

JP: Think form is in decline, and distance is well beyond his comfort zone. That's a bad exacta.
MW: In on points. The saving grace this year is there isn't an exciting horse shut out due to points.

Lone Sailor

JP: Ran best race yet in La. Derby, but believe the form of FG preps is below that of other regionals.
MW: He got a great setup in Louisiana Derby and had the lead late, but couldn't close the deal. Pass.

Promises Fulfilled

JP: Pace makes his race. Sensible in Fountain of Youth, won. Radioactive in Florida Derby, stopped.
MW: Dreadful effort off which to go into the Derby, and it's not like he'll have a walking lead at CD.
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#388806 - 05/01/18 12:24 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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KYDerby
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#388883 - 05/01/18 07:07 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Click the link and it will open the PDF for the Kentucky Derby Past Performances.

Good Luck


Attachments
KYDPP.pdf (248 downloads)
Description: 2018 Kentucky Derby Past Performances


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#388965 - 05/02/18 12:47 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Rich Saber

Good Magic
Justify
Mendelssohn
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#388966 - 05/02/18 12:49 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Steve Davidowitz

Justify

Trifecta

Justify over Magnum Moon, Bolt D'Oro, Good Magic, Flameaway
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#388967 - 05/02/18 12:53 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Track Phantom

Winner - Mendelssohn
Best Value - Bolt D'Oro
Long Shot - Lone Sailor
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#388968 - 05/02/18 12:55 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Jon Lindo

Justify
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#388983 - 05/02/18 03:14 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Simon Bray

Magnum Moon
Justify
Audible
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#388984 - 05/02/18 03:14 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Matt Carothers

Good Magic
Hofburg
Justify
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#388985 - 05/02/18 03:15 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Todd Schrupp

Hofburg
Justify
Good Magic
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#388986 - 05/02/18 03:15 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Rich Perloff

Audible
Justify
Mendelssohn
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#388987 - 05/02/18 03:15 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Tom Cassidy

Justify
Hofburg
Flameaway
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#388988 - 05/02/18 03:16 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Mike Joyce

Vino Rosso
Good Magic
Mendelssohn
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#388989 - 05/02/18 03:17 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Caleb Keller

Mendelssohn
Audible
Justify
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#388990 - 05/02/18 03:17 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Joaquin Jaime

Bolt D'oro
Justify
Audible
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#388991 - 05/02/18 03:17 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Britney Eurton

Bold D'Oro
Justify
Good Magic
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#388992 - 05/02/18 03:18 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Christina Blacker

Good Magic
Justify
Magnum Moon
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#388993 - 05/02/18 03:18 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Scott Hazelton

Audible
Justify
Good Magic
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#388994 - 05/02/18 03:18 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Candice hare

Hofburg
Vino Rosso
Justify
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#388995 - 05/02/18 03:19 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Dave Weaver

Good Magic
Magnum Moon
Flameaway
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#388996 - 05/02/18 03:19 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Dave Tuley

Flameaway
Good Magic
Magnum Moon
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#388997 - 05/02/18 03:20 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Roxy Roxborough

Justify
Bolt D'oro
Good Magic
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#388998 - 05/02/18 03:21 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Matt Youmans

Magnum Moon
Justify
Good Magic
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#388999 - 05/02/18 03:21 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Brent Musburger

Good Magic
Bolt D'Oro
Audible
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#389000 - 05/02/18 03:22 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Ron Flatter

Audible
Enticed
Noble Indy
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#389012 - 05/02/18 07:41 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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John Asher

Mendelssohn
Hofburg
Good Magic
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#389013 - 05/02/18 07:41 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Joe Kristufek

Mendelssohn
Justify
Vino Rosso
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#389014 - 05/02/18 07:42 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Ed DeRosa

Audible
Good Magic
Mendelssohn
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#389015 - 05/02/18 07:42 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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James Scully

Mendelssohn
Audible
Justify
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#389016 - 05/02/18 07:42 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Kellie Reilly

Justify
Good Magic
Bolt d'Oro
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#389017 - 05/02/18 07:43 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Vance Hanson

Justify
Audible
Bolt d'Oro
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#389018 - 05/02/18 07:43 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Scott Shapiro

Audible
Justify
Good Magic
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#389019 - 05/02/18 07:44 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Joe Tansey

Justify
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#389020 - 05/02/18 07:45 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Vinnie Iyer

Audible
Justify
Magnum Moon
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#389021 - 05/02/18 07:46 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Steve Falk

Justify
Hofburg
Bolt díOro
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#389022 - 05/02/18 07:47 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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John Rowe

Justify
My Boy Jack
Mendelssohn
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#389023 - 05/02/18 07:47 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Josh Newman

Justify
Bolt DíOro
My Boy Jack
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#389079 - 05/03/18 01:15 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Jody Demling

Mendelssohn
Justify
Bolt díOro
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#389098 - 05/03/18 07:15 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Chris Fallica

The field


1. Firenze Fire (Paco Lopez/Jason Servis) -- 50-1I was happy to cash tickets on him as a 2-year-old at double-digit odds in both the Sanford and Champagne, but his 3-year-old form leaves a lot to be desired, and the rail draw means he's got to be either first or last out of the gate. I'm glad a throw-out entry drew the rail so a real contender didn't get stuck there. Firenze Fire is not even worth using underneath.

2. Free Drop Billy (Robby Albarado/Dale Romans) -- 30-1He broke maiden at first asking over the Churchill surface last June and has run well in graded stakes, notably winning the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last year. But he's kind of flattened out as a 3-year-old. He'll be the biggest price he's ever been -- he's never been longer than 8-1 -- and Dale Romans has hit the board before with longshot runners. He'll get shuffled back because of Post 2 and do his running late. I'll use him in the lower rungs of tris and supers, but he can't win.

3. Promises Fulfilled (Corey Lanerie/Dale Romans) -- 30-1A $40 upset winner over Good Magic at the Fountain of Youth on a speed-favoring Gulfstream surface, Promises Fulfilled will be seen early as a pace factor. Watch him back up late, but he isn't worth inclusion.

4. Flameaway (Jose Lezcano/Mark Casse) -- 30-1He's a five-time winner, but one of those wins was on turf, one was on synthetic at Woodbine and two came in washed-off-the turf events. He held off Catholic Boy and Vino Rosso at Tampa, but he's nothing more than a pace-setter here. I'm not using him at all.

5. Audible (Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher) -- 8-1The visually impressive winner of both the Holy Bull and Florida Derby at Gulfstream is one of four Todd Pletcher trainees attempting to give the trainer a second straight Derby win. Pletcher would be the first trainer since Bob Baffert in 1997-98 to do just that. Audible is proven to be a versatile type, winning from the lead, just off the lead and well off the lead. But I wonder how far he really wants to go. Ten furlongs might be asking a bit much. Javier Castellano hasn't fared well at the Derby, as only Normandy Invasion finished better than sixth in his 11 career mounts. In fact, he's the only jockey in Derby history to have at least 11 mounts and not have an in-the-money finish. While he chose Audible over Bolt d'Oro out of loyalty to Pletcher, the five Castellano-Pletcher runners have finished sixth, sixth, 10th, 16th and 13th in the Derby. If you like Audible, I can see why, but I will be inclined to stand against on top.

6. Good Magic (Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown) -- 12-1Good Magic will try to join Street Sense and Nyquist as Breeders' Cup Juvenile champs who went on to win the Derby. His Fountain of Youth was terrible, but he bounced back in his second start of the year to win what I thought was a rather weak Blue Grass. His running style fits the profile of how I think the race will be won, but I have mixed feelings on him. It seems like he's a trendy upset pick, and you'll get nowhere near the 12-1 money line on him. I'll use him on my tickets as a backup, as I would hate to miss out on cashing because of him, but I'm not 100 percent sold.

7. Justify (Mike Smith/Bob Baffert) -- 3-1I don't think he could have drawn any more perfectly than he did. He has two dedicated front-runners to his left in Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, along with three stone-cold closers to his outside in Lone Sailor, Hofburg and My Boy Jack. That should allow him to secure a great stalking spot into and around the first turn. I'm not a believer in the whole Curse of Apollo deal. Curlin didn't lose the Derby because he was unraced at 2 years old; he lost because he drew Post 2, and Street Sense ran huge. Bodemeister didn't lose in 2012 because he was unraced at 2 years old; he ran a winning race and got beat late by longshot I'll Have Another.Are there concerns? Of course. In his three starts, Justify has beaten 14 horses. He'll have to beat 19 on Saturday. Sure, he has just three lifetime starts, but so did Big Brown before he won the Derby from Post 20. He's looked great here in his workout. I'll never talk anyone out of trying to beat a favorite if they like a price horse, but if he does indeed get the trip I laid out above, he will be awfully hard to beat and leave out of the trifecta, making a sixth-straight Derby-winning favorite very likely.

8. Lone Sailor (James Graham/Tom Amoss) -- 50-1He couldn't get by Noble Indy in Louisiana, but that second-place finish got him an invite to the Derby. Lone Sailor ran well at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old, finishing second in the Street Sense Stakes, before a bad post cost him any shot in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He can't win, but my hunch is the connections are here to get a thrill seeing him finish down the lane and pick off some tiring horses. I'll be using the closer underneath.

9. Hofburg (Irad Ortiz Jr/Bill Mott) -- 20-1He's the wise-guy horse of 2018, so if you think you're getting anywhere near 20-1, you're wrong. But he's still worth using in the exotic pools. Like Justify, he's only raced three times and could improve more here in his second start against winners. He'll be coming from out of it, so like many of those types, he may have to deal with traffic problems. But when Bill Mott sends one to the Derby (hasn't had a Derby runner since 2009), it's worth taking notice. I'd be surprised if he stepped up and won, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ran well and got a slice, especially with how well he has worked locally.

10. My Boy Jack (Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux) -- 30-1He's got the shortest layoff of any entrant, as he needed to win the Lexington Stakes to get into the Derby. He's reportedly gotten a little warm in his workouts leading up to the race, so who knows if that's a sign he might not be at his best on Saturday. I think he's absolutely worth using in the trifecta, as he, like many, will be passing tiring front-runners. He's got a decent kick, and My Boy Jack was beaten by Mendelssohn by just three lengths from a brutal post in the BC Juvenile Turf at 11-1. It's not like he hasn't been well backed or respected in previous races.

11. Bolt d'Oro (Victor Espinoza/Mick Ruis) -- 8-1Bolt d'Oro won at the San Felipe Stakes and had the misfortune of running into Justify at a huge pace disadvantage at the Santa Anita Derby. I'm not concerned about the jockey change -- it's not like Victor Espinoza and his three Kentucky Derby wins are a disadvantage. We know he can get the distance, as evidenced by his brutal trip as the odds-on favorite in the BC Juvenile. He has the right stalk/press profile for a potential winner. Could this be an Indian Charlie/Real Quiet or Empire Maker/Funny Cide situation in which one horse won the preps, but was then beaten on the first Saturday in May?If looking for a reason to knock him, his workouts haven't been the greatest, although he reportedly isn't the best workout horse. The battle with McKinzie first off the layoff and then chasing Justify around in the Santa Anita Derby could have taken too much out of him. Still, if you're looking to beat the favorite, this is the best place to start.

12. Enticed (Junior Alvarado/Kiaran McLaughlin) -- 30-1Enticed won over the track in the Jockey Club last November, and then was an easy winner in the Gotham. He ran OK in the Wood and was bumped repeatedly by the winner Vino Rosso, but was clearly second best. He's not on the list of contenders, but he also isn't among the longest shots out there. My guess is he goes around the track and finishes somewhere between ninth and 12th while never threatening.

13. Bravazo (Luis Contreras/D. Wayne Lukas) -- 50-1Bravazo broke maiden here, but I can't see him being much more than a nuisance on the lead. He was a fluke winner of the Risen Star in a race that hasn't proven to be very productive and was oddly run. Lukas has won Triple Crown races with some hard-to-figure longshots before, but I would be stunned if this was one of them. I'm totally tossing him.

14. Mendelssohn (Ryan Moore/Aidan O'Brien) -- 5-1Until one of the UAE Derby winners comes here and runs well in the Derby, I'm standing against them. Mendelssohn had everything his way in crushing a weak field in the UAE Derby, and he beat me in the BC Juvenile Turf when he was sent off as the 5-1 favorite one race after being 50-1. He'll probably be just behind the leaders, and then it's just a matter of how he handles dirt in his face. In an odd quirk, Post 14 hasn't produced a winner since 1961, the longest drought for any post which has produced a winner. In a field this size, you need to stand against someone. I'll use the past history of no UAE Derby winner finishing better than sixth as one of the reasons Mendelssohn will not be on my ticket.

15. Regard (Drayden Van Dyke/Jerry Hollendorfer) -- 50-1Instilled Regard drew into the field following a couple of injury defections. He had some good form as a 2-year-old and early as a 3-year-old, but hasn't really improved to be a legit contender here. Any horse who was able to run with McKinzie has some talent, and while I don't think he can contend for the win, I'll use him for third and fourth.

16. Magnum Moon (Luis Saez/Todd Pletcher) -- 6-1He seems to be getting very little respect leading up to the race with how he finished in the Arkansas Derby. Like Justify, Magnum Moon was unraced at 2 and is undefeated. He's one of three Pletcher trainees starting from the auxiliary gate and will have to avoid being wide around that first turn. Well-regarded Arkansas Derby winners typically hold their form and run well in Louisville, as the seven horses since 2004 that were a top-four betting choice combined to go 2-1-3 in the top three, with Classic Empire's fourth-place finish last year the worst of the bunch. This is Luis Saez's first real live mount in the Derby, so let's see how he handles it. My guess is he will be pretty aggressive, and it could cost Magnum Moon late. He can win, but I'm inclined to stand against.

17. Solomini (Flavien Prat/Bob Baffert) -- 30-1The "other" Baffert horse is a one-pace, consistent type who has been soundly beaten by a few of the other logical contenders in there. Jockey Flavien Prat typically gets his horses to finish well, and that will be to Solomini's advantage. Nobody has won from Post 17, and Solomini won't be the first, but he could be worth using for third and fourth. He's never ran a bad race, but he's also never ran a good enough race to win here.

18. Vino Rosso (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher) -- 12-1He was the winner of the Wood Memorial, but that hasn't been a good thing lately in terms of Derby success. Since Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood in 2000, 10 of 13 Wood winners ran in the Derby as a top-5 betting choice, and seven of the 13 sent off as a top-3 choice. Just two finished in the money: Empire Maker (second in 2003) and Congaree (third in 2001).I didn't like his races at Tampa at all, but despite the bumping with Enticed, his Wood was a lot better. Will the same jockey/trainer combo win two years in a row? Doubtful, but I'll still be using him in the exotics, as we know he can finish from off-the-pace and the price will be right.

19. Noble Indy (Florent Geroux/Todd Pletcher) -- 30-1I don't see any way he works out a trip from here. He's a speed horse from an outside post that has to go, and that makes him far more likely to finish last than first.

20. Combatant (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen) -- 50-1I'll be using him underneath, as he reminds me a bit of Lookin at Lee (who finished second in the Derby last year) and Creator (who won the Belmont Stakes in 2016). He broke his maiden for fun here in his second lifetime start and can finish. He won't give Steve Asmussen his first Derby win in 19 tries, which is the most number of starts without a win in Derby history, but he will make a good account of himself from way out of it at a huge number.

$0.50 trifecta 7/2-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-20/2-8-10-11-20 $25.00
$0.50 trifecta 7/2-8-10-11-20/2-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-15-16-17-18-20 $27.50
$0.50 trifecta 5-6-11-18/7/2-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-15-16-17-18-20 $22.00
$1.00 trifecta 7/11/2-5-6-8-9-10-14-15-16-17-18-20 $12.00
$1.00 trifecta 11/7/2-5-6-8-9-10-14-15-16-17-18-20 $12.00
$1.00 trifecta 7/2-5-6-8-9-10-14-15-16-17-18-20/11 $12.00
$1.00 trifecta 11/2-5-6-8-9-10-14-15-16-17-18-20/7 $12.00
$1.00 exacta box 2-5-6-8-10-11-18 $42.00
$1.00 exacta box 5-6-7-10-11-18 $30.00
$2.00 exacta 7/2-5-6-8-10-11-18-20 $14.00
$1.00 exacta 2-5-6-8-10-11-18-20/7 $7.00
$2.00 place-show 2-8-10-20 $16.00
$4.00 win-place-show 11 $12.00
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#389099 - 05/03/18 07:37 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389207 - 05/04/18 06:58 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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FIRENZE FIRE (50/1) - With Paco Lopez in the irons, I'm curious if he's going to show any of the early speed he showed in his first few races. But, beyond his possible role in the pace? It's hard to consider FIRENZE FIRE much further, since his Derby prep record implies distance limitations. He'd be a contender in the Pat Day Mile, but he's a toss in the Derby.

FREE DROP BILLY (30/1) - He should love a mile and a quarter: his dam Trensa has produced a pair of winners going even longer than the Derby distance (G1W Hawkbill, as well as Trensita), and even his sire Union Rags had a first-crop baby hit the board in the Belmont last year (Patch). He also has a win at Churchill, another positive. The relative inside post is a mild concern, but with his closing style, he can settle off the pace and save every inch of ground. With some pace to run at (and no Sporting Chance to mug him in the lane, unless he lurks in the infield after the Pat Day Mile (G3)), FREE DROP BILLY could have a say in this at long odds. Do not leave him off your tickets.

PROMISES FULFILLED (30/1) - He will likely set the pace. But, the speedball won't have the easy time up front that he had in the Fountain of Youth (G2), and his pedigree suggests a mile and a quarter will not suit him in the least. PROMISES FULFILLED will ensure pace for the closers (like his stablemate Free Drop Billy), but won't be in the picture late.

FLAMEAWAY (30/1) - He has epitomized grit and consistency through the Derby season. Though he is probably just a notch below the best, he always tries, he can survive on or close to a contested pace, and he doesn't back down from a challenge. The biggest concern was the poor outing in the Iroquois -- but given his better work has come from closer to the pace that his early trouble that day allowed him to get, he can have a mulligan. At long odds, it would be no surprise to see FLAMEAWAY fight on for third or fourth.

AUDIBLE (8/1) - There are things to like about AUDIBLE: Gulfstream has been a live spur of the Derby trail in recent years, and he dominated there this prep season. He also has some tactical versatility, which gives Javier Castellano some flexibility in carving out a trip. But? Questions loom, too. Even though John Velazquez (trainer Todd Pletcher's "A" rider) rode Audible in his decisive Florida Derby (G1) victory, he still opted to ride VINO ROSSO . And, nothing about AUDIBLE's pedigree suggests he wants a mile and a quarter. Though he overcame a bit of adversity in his debut, rallying after a bad start to get third, it's hard to say he has actually been through the wringer, given how easy all four of his victories have been. All in all, the cons outweigh the pros with AUDIBLE, and it makes sense to look elsewhere.

GOOD MAGIC (12/1) - Let's get one thing out of the way first: that 12/1 morning line on GOOD MAGIC is not happening. That is a colossal Battaglia Special, on a level we haven't seen since he put Rosalind at 15/1 on the morning line for the 2014 Ashland, and she went off 7/2. Even so? GOOD MAGIC deserves a prominent place on any Kentucky Derby tickets. Though Gulfstream didn't suit him in his seasonal debut, he did exactly what he needed to do in the Blue Grass (G2): win with confidence. His running style suits the Derby: off pace, but not too far off, a tactical stalking-to-midpack type. And, he is by a proven Classic sire in Curlin. There is a lot to like, and GOOD MAGIC is one of the top contenders.

JUSTIFY (3/1) - JUSTIFY enters this race unexposed. People talk about whether he needs to lead, but that's a canard; he showed in his N1X win that he doesn't. But, the only time he raced anyone of Derby calibre (BOLT D'ORO in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)), JUSTIFY did get it as easily as he wanted up front. And, whether his debut came in February or December? He still hasn't been in any sort of race that put his feet to the fire. All three of his wins have been romps. With that, you have to make a choice: do you trust that his talent will overcome the fact that he has only had three races, and no tough tests? Or, do you make him prove his mettle on the First Saturday in May? With Justify so likely to go off the chalk, and other talented and better-tested horses in the field, the value lies in playing others, and making this son of Scat Daddy JUSTIFY the hype.

LONE SAILOR (50/1) - LONE SAILOR has meshed well with jockey James Graham, with whom he ran a tenacious second behind NOBLE INDY in the Louisiana Derby (G2). It was the best race of his career by a good margin, making one wonder if he'll regress. That also wasn't the strongest prep; third in that race was a horse who ran like he doesn't want nine furlongs, MY BOY JACK. Also of concern? LONE SAILOR's only win came in the slop at Saratoga, where he romped against a bunch of washed-off turf horses. Joe Hirsch would be rooting for this horse -- he wanted to see the horse with the best story win, and LONE SAILOR doing this for the late Tom Benson would be a great story. But, from a handicapping perspective, he's a longshot for a reason.

HOFBURG (20/1) - Watch the tote on HOFBURG, since he has become the wise guy horse -- well, him and VINO ROSSO, but the Vino Train seems to have lost steam ever since he was marooned in the 19 hole. But, if the board gives HOFBURG fair value? He makes all the sense in the world. He ran a strong second behind AUDIBLE in the Florida Derby, and on pedigree, HOFBURG is the one out of the Florida Derby who has upside to improve at the distance. That comes from both sides of his pedigree: he is by Tapit out of Soothing Touch, a Touch Gold mare who also produced the top-class racemare Emollient. Finally, he hails from the barn of Bill Mott, a trainer who doesn't tend to put horses in tough spots unless they're up to it. A win in the Kentucky Derby may be a lot to ask, but a spot on the podium could happen.

MY BOY JACK (30/1) - MY BOY JACK looked full of horse coming into the lane in the Louisiana Derby, but he stalled out. A cut back from nine furlongs to the eight and a half of the Lexington (G3) got him back in the winners' circle, and punched his ticket to the Derby. But? Now he stretches back to a mile and a quarter. Even with pace likely in front of him? He'll sputter out in the late stages. Hard pass.

BOLT D'ORO (8/1) - A Derby horse needs both talent and seasoning, and BOLT D'ORO has an exemplary mix of those factors. He has six starts underneath him, a pair of grade 1 wins, and tactical versatility. BOLT D'ORO also proved he could fight with a good horse, as he held his own in a round of fisticuffs with McKinzie in the San Felipe (G2). Of course, he's not without some questions. He was well beaten by JUSTIFY in the Santa Anita Derby -- but, he did run fast, and no one was going to catch a horse as talented as JUSTIFY loose on the lead. BOLT D'ORO will get more to run at here. Trainer Mick Ruis is sending a horse to the Derby for the first time, and you never know how a first-time Derby trainer will handle the circus. But, his rider has no shortage of big-time Derby experience: Victor Espinoza rode California Chrome and American Pharoah as well. On race day, his presence could temper Ruis's inexperience. Looking at the big picture? BOLT D'ORO is fast, battle-forged, and the top selection in a competitive Kentucky Derby.

ENTICED (30/1) - It's hard to either love or hate ENTICED. Always one of the better in his class, he moved past a flat Holy Bull with a sparkling victory in the Gotham (G3) -- a race in which he beat FREE DROP BILLY, though that foe was routed there at the last minute and is not a miler by any means. He ran into a somewhat rough trip in the Wood (G2), where he finished second to VINO ROSSO. He's neither markedly slow nor one of the fastest. He ran well in his last two preps, but on a Derby Trail spur that hasn't been particularly live lately. Can we bet that ENTICED finishes tenth?

BRAVAZO (50/1) - To be fair, BRAVAZO likes Churchill. He does have good form there last year, including a maiden win and a pair of stakes placings. But, against this class of horse, it seems he needs to be forward to be competitive. He won a carousel edition of the Risen Star (G2), but got burned chasing a hot pace in the Louisiana Derby. Gunning it from the 13 hole and trying to chase PROMISES FULFILLED will do him no favours. He looks outmatched.

MENDELSSOHN (5/1) - Like JUSTIFY, MENDELSSOHN is the type of horse on whom one needs to take a stand. Sure, there are reasons he can buck the bad record of UAE Derby (G2) horses in Kentucky. He dazzled in Dubai, and based on his final preparations for and performance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last fall, he ships beautifully. It's also a plus that Ryan Moore chose to forgo the 2000 Guineas (a British Classic, also being run this Saturday) to ride in the Kentucky Derby. But? As a Scat Daddy half to Into Mischief and Beholder, a mile and a quarter may prove long for him. And though MENDELSSOHN doesn't need the lead, he won't get the butter-smooth front-end trip he got in the UAE Derby, and he will face more and tougher foes here than the likes of Rayya, Reride, and Gold Town. For the likely short price, the value isn't there.

REGARD (50/1) - He showed a lot of promise early, holding his own with the West Coast set late last year, and won the Lecomte (G3) easily. But, since, then, he has stalled out. The crumbs he got for finishing fourth in the Risen Star and the Santa Anita Derby were enough to get him into the Derby starting gate, but he hasn't progressed through the spring like so many of the others who will load into the same clacking monolith. Whether that is because of his form cycle tailing off or because the others have surpassed him for good, REGARD is a toss.

MAGNUM MOON (6/1) - I'd like him more if he didn't drift so badly in the Arkansas Derby (G1) -- but whether that meant he was tired or meant he needs to grow up a bit remains to be seen. There's enough in the pedigree to grant, at least, some credence to the idea that he got spooked by the starting gate, which would be something he could get over. He has a similar question looming over him as JUSTIFY -- which is, to say, none of MAGNUM MOON finishes have been particularly close, so it's undetermined what will happen when he is forged in the fire of a twenty-horse field. But, with four good starts underneath him, a solid enough distance pedigree, and tactical speed? Especially since this one seems to be slipping under the radar despite dominating a live spur of the Kentucky Derby trail, there is much to like about MAGNUM MOON in exchange for the likely tote price.

SOLOMINI (30/1) - SOLOMINI was one of the best last year, always in the picture against the upper echelon of the west coast two-year-olds. But, in two starts at Oaklawn this year? MAGNUM MOON soundly beat him. He hasn't seemed to have grown...rather odd for a Curlin baby, as Curlin's progeny have been so reliable in the Classics, but either he has stalled out or he is particularly slow to come into himself. Either way? He may be part of the pace early if he guns it from the auxiliary gate, but we can't see him being a factor in the end.

VINO ROSSO (12/1) - VINO ROSSO has been getting some steam since winning the Wood with enough strength that John Velazquez opted to ride him of Audible. That enthusiasm for him has subsided some after the gate draw, but even if he had drawn farther inside? VINO ROSSO echoes of another son of Curlin who raced in the Classics last year, Irish War Cry. Both are good when they're good, but woefully inconsistent. We may revisit this one in the Belmont (G1), though -- where he'll face a smaller field, and where his breeding (by Curlin out of a Street Cry half-sister to Belmont 2nd-place Commissioner) may make VINO ROSSO one of the few who can stay the trip without sputtering.

NOBLE INDY (30/1) - Though NOBLE INDY came back so gamely in the Louisiana Derby, he didn't beat the best of the best there. He was also the big loser in the post draw: a forward horse who drew out in the parking lot, so he'll have to use energy early to get into a decent spot. Pass.

COMBATANT (50/1) - In a sense, COMBATANT is the closer version of FLAMEAWAY: they're both Scat Daddy babies, they're both a cut below the best of the bunch, but you know what you're going to get with both: a good, hard try. COMBATANT never won a prep, but he got points in all four Arkansas preps as well as the Remington Springboard Mile. He also has a maiden win at Churchill, suggesting some affinity for the surface. With some pace likely in the Derby? If he runs the race of his life he could nab a share underneath (like a stablemate of his, Lookin at Lee, did last year in the Derby), but that is a best case scenario.

BLENDED CITIZEN (50/1) - also eligible - If BLENDED CITIZEN draws in and wins, it would be a surprise on the level of Mine That Bird. But? He is rounding into good form, ran into some trouble in the Blue Grass, and he has a nice closing kick. His dam has already produced a horse who hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, last year's second-place finisher Lookin at Lee. He also hails from a barn that has upset the Derby before; though Doug O'Neill's last winner Nyquist was chalk, his I'll Have Another was not. If BLENDED CITIZEN draws in, sprinkling him in third or fourth in trifectas and superfectas could pay off big time.

Selections:

#11 BOLT D'ORO (8/1)
#6 GOOD MAGIC (12/1)
#16 MAGNUM MOON (6/1)
Longshot: #2 FREE DROP BILLY (30/1)
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#389209 - 05/04/18 07:02 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389210 - 05/04/18 07:02 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Jim Mulvihill

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#389211 - 05/04/18 07:02 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Jake Lourim

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#389212 - 05/04/18 07:02 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389213 - 05/04/18 07:03 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389214 - 05/04/18 07:03 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389215 - 05/04/18 07:03 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389216 - 05/04/18 07:03 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389217 - 05/04/18 07:04 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389218 - 05/04/18 07:04 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389219 - 05/04/18 07:04 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389220 - 05/04/18 07:04 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389221 - 05/04/18 07:04 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389222 - 05/04/18 07:05 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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E-Ponies

7 JUSTIFY
16 MAGNUM MOON
6 GOOD MAGIC
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#389223 - 05/04/18 07:14 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Neil Greenberg

Winner - Bolt DíOro

Trifecta

Bolt díOro with Audible and Good Magic with Audible, Good Magic, Magnum Moon and Vino Rosso (11 with 5, 6 with 5, 6, 16, 18)

Audible and Good Magic with Bolt díOro with Audible, Good Magic, Magnum Moon and Vino Rosso (5, 6 with 11 with 5, 6, 16, 18)

Audible and Good Magic with Audible, Good Magic, and Vino Rosso with Bolt díOro (5, 6 with 5, 6, 16, 18 with 11)

Superfecta

Bolt díOro with Audible and Good Magic with Audible, Good Magic, Magnum Moon and Vino Rosso with Audible, Good Magic, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, Flameaway, Solomini, Regard, Hofburg and Firenze Fire (11 with 5,6 with 5, 6, 16, 18 with 5, 6, 16, 18, 4, 17, 15, 9, 1)

Audible with Bolt díOro with Good Magic, Magnum Moon and Vino Rosso with Good Magic, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, Flameaway, Solomini, Regard, Hofburg and Firenze Fire (5 with 11 with 6, 16, 18, 4, 17, 15, 9, 1)

Audible with Good Magic with Bolt díOro with Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, Flameaway, Solomini, Regard, Hofburg and Firenze Fire (5 with 6 with 11 with 16, 18, 4, 17, 15, 9, 1)
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#389231 - 05/04/18 07:47 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Good Luck Tomorrow Freak. Ant tips, taking my dad to bet derby in the morning.

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#389235 - 05/05/18 02:36 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
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Timeform

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace, with Promises Fulfilled (#3) and Justify (#7) likely to head out towards the front of the pack soon after the start. While Justify is obviously fast enough to secure the lead, itís generally accepted that Promises Fulfilled will edge ahead of the favorite in the early going. Itís unlikely that either will be able to slow things down much as a number of chasers should be in hot pursuit. Flameaway (#4), Bolt díOro (#11), Enticed (#12), Magnum Moon (#16), and Noble Indy (#19) all possess some early speed and will be vying for ideal position in behind these front-runners. One additional wild card in this pace scenario is Mendelssohn (#14), for whom we have limited pace data, given that heís run the majority of his races overseas. He, too, could be up close in the opening furlongs.

Horses like Audible (#5), Good Magic (#6), Solomini (#17), and Vino Rosso (#18) should be looking to attain early position in mid-pack, but mid-pack position in this race could be as far back as 13th or 14th given the massive field of runners. Deep closers Hofburg (#9), My Boy Jack (#10), and Combatant (#20) Ė none of which are shown in the Pace Projector Ė are likely to bring up the rear.

Letís make our way through the entire 20-horse field:

#1, FIRENZE FIRE (50-1): At least a horse with no realistic chance drew the dreaded rail slot. This colt just doesnít want to go this far, and heís not nearly fast enough anyway. Pass.

#2, FREE DROP BILLY (30-1): The two Dale Romans trainees will break from side-by-side stalls in the gate. While Promises Fulfilled is generally regarded as the runner who will have more influence on the outcome given his ample early speed, Free Drop Billy figures to be the Romans colt that makes the most noise at the finish. His three-year-old season has been somewhat disappointing, but he has had excuses. He worked out an uncomfortable trip in the Gotham, as he was always out of position while attempting to close over a speed-favoring track. Looking for redemption in the Blue Grass, he got sideswiped by a rival while in the midst of his stretch-run, costing him any chance of overtaking the leaders. Realistically, Free Drop Billy is unlikely to win the Kentucky Derby off those performances, but he does have a chance to pick up some pieces late. I appreciate his willingness to run through traffic, which he did seamlessly around the far turn in the Blue Grass. From this inside post position, Robby Albarado can guide him to the back of the pack and hope that some holes open up. Heís going to need a few top contenders to falter in order to make the trifecta, but thatís never out of the question in this grueling race. An exotics possibility.

#3, PROMISES FULFILLED (30-1): His two preps in Florida could not be more dichotomous. He was allowed to set his own comfortable pace in the Fountain of Youth, and capitalized on that favorable setup with a win over two-year-old champion Good Magic. However, in the Florida Derby, he and pace rival Strike Power incinerated after blazing through the first half-mile in unreasonably fast time. While the early pace of the Kentucky Derby is unlikely to be quite that fast, this front-runner is highly unlikely to get another free ride on the lead. Pass.

#4, FLAMEAWAY (30-1): Iíve been wrong about his colt throughout the prep season, having underestimated his talent each time he ran. None of his competitors have visited the winnerís circle on as many occasions as this 5-time victor, and heís accomplished those wins under a variety of circumstances. Dirt has been the focus recently as heís been pushed towards this race, and heís welcomed each successive challenge. Unfortunately, I once again will afford him little respect, as I just do not believe heís suited to this race. Heíll be forced to deal with a much swifter early tempo than heís encountered in any of his prep races and would need to produce the fastest race of his career. Pass.

#5, AUDIBLE (8-1): I had been a skeptic earlier in the year, but this New York-bred has turned me into a believer with two resounding victories in Florida this winter. While he doesnít possess the classic pedigree of a Derby winner, neither did recent champions American Pharoah or Nyquist. That just hasnít mattered as much over the last decade or so. Besides, Audible already outran his sprint-oriented damside pedigree by winning the Florida Derby, and he gives every impression that more distance will not be a major hindrance. Itís the way he finishes off his races that makes him so appealing. In all of his wins, just as he appears to have exhausted all of his gears, he turns it up one more notch for the stretch drive. He basically sprinted through the final quarter mile of the Holy Bull, as he left Free Drop Billy in his wake. In the Florida Derby, he was forced to make a longer, sustained run from the back of the pack after losing position on the backstretch. Yet, reliably, he was still reaching for the wire with vigor in deep stretch, putting even greater distance between himself and fellow closer Hofburg. Javier Castellano takes over the reins from John Velazquez, which is of little concern given the tough choices that both riders were faced with heading into the Derby. At least Castellano knows this horse well, and is aware of his propensity to lose focus mid-race. If heís able to keep Audible in the bridle and has him within two lengths of the lead at the quarter pole, his rivals will be hard-pressed to withstand his finishing power. A top contender for victory.

#6, GOOD MAGIC (12-1): The results have been mixed for last yearís two-year-old champion so far this season. Any way you slice it, his Fountain of Youth was a disappointment. Despite the slow early pace and speed-favoring Gulfstream surface, he was still supposed to be making up some ground at the end of that race. He rebounded admirably in the Blue Grass, grinding out a win over Flameaway and Free Drop Billy. However, those two are hardly among the elite contenders in this field, and Good Magic didnít exactly assert his dominance in victory. At the end of the day, the Breedersí Cup Juvenile remains the most impressive race heís ever run. I have the utmost respect for his trainer, who is arguably the best in the country, but he needs to get Good Magic to improve on his Blue Grass by about 4 or 5 lengths in order to win the Derby. Chad Brown insists that heís doing better than ever heading into the race, but do I really want to take a mediocre price on a horse that has yet to improve upon his two-year-old form? I know thereís been some recent buzz around his morning workouts, but heís always gone about his business enthusiastically in the mornings, so that hardly sways me. Itís also possible that he may find himself as far back as mid-field in the early stages of this race, which would be a new experience for him. I appreciate his overall resume and am grateful to have last yearís champion in the field, but Iím just not sold on his chances to take back the crown. A win seems just out of reach.

#7, JUSTIFY (3-1): Handicappers that are concerned about value almost always need to be careful around horses like Justify. After all, heís competed in just a single stakes race and heís already been anointed as the new leader of this division. Moreover, he got an absolutely perfect trip in that Santa Anita Derby win, setting a moderate early pace while his lone major rival was at a distinct disadvantage. So why is everyone already proclaiming him to be a Triple Crown threat before heís even won the first leg? Probably because he might just be that good. Justify is not your ordinary Derby favorite. Despite his lack of seasoning, this is an exceptionally gifted three-year-old, the likes of which we havenít seen in a number of years. The fact that he is considered to be such a clear-cut choice in a field with so much depth at the top speaks to his brilliance. Heís earned speed figures that most elite horses donít achieve until their four-year-old seasons, and heís been doing it right from the start, beginning with his dazzling February debut. Clearly, given that late start to his career, he lacks foundation. Is it worth paying attention to the dreaded curse of Apollo? Horses can make up for a lack of seasoning with talent, and Justify may indeed be that kind of thoroughbred Ė one that clears each successive hurdle on his first attempt. Yet, how short of a price are you really willing to take on a horse that will be trying a number of things for the first time? A top contender despite the lack of value.

#8, LONE SAILOR (50-1): The top three-year-olds were not located in New Orleans this season, and he was hardly the best of that group. He hung badly at the end of the Louisiana Derby after working out a perfect trip, raising concerns about his stamina. Pass.

#9, HOFBURG (20-1): Why am I supposed to prefer him to Audible, who defeated him so convincingly in the Florida Derby? Both benefitted from the swift early pace, and I would argue that Hofburg had a less taxing trip. He did not even attempt to get involved in that suicidal first quarter whereas Audible tried to hold a chasing position around the clubhouse turn before losing focus. Not only does Audible possess better tactical speed than Hofburg, but he has a significant experience edge over this lightly-raced colt. One might argue that Hofburg has greater upside in just his fourth career start, but since when is a lack of seasoning a positive in this particular race? One advantage that Hofburg does appear to have is an ample amount of stamina. Heís by Tapit, who has sired a couple of Belmont Stakes winners, and is out of a Touch Gold mare that has produced 10-furlong Grade 1 winner Emollient. If things really fall apart at the end of this race, perhaps he can make a dent, but Iím still somewhat skeptical. Chance for a small slice.

#10, MY BOY JACK (30-1): If you like him, youíre hoping for a pace collapse. While heís run well in each of his last few starts, he would need some help to defeat the elite contenders in this field, since his speed figures are just a cut below the threshold. Iím also not enamored with the path heís taken to this race, as heíll be running for the third time in just 6 weeks after having to squeeze in a start in the Lexington in order to accrue the necessary points. A superfecta chance.

#11, BOLT DíORO (8-1): In the Kentucky Derby, typically 2 or 3 horses among the 20 perform at their optimum level, either by matching their previous peak effort or exploding with a new top performance. The other 85 to 90 percent of the field usually regress. The Derby is a taxing race on these young three-year-olds, and the vast majority of them are simply not up to the task. So, if I have to choose one horse in this yearís race who will show up when the chips are down, itís this colt. The fact of Bolt díOroís career is that heís never run a bad race. He handled sprint distances in his early starts despite not really being a sprinter, and heís been basically unstoppable since stretching out around two turns. Some might argue that he has failed to repeat his stellar 7-length triumph in last yearís FrontRunner, but those people would be wrong. He has run just as well in each of his subsequent starts, despite encountering varying degrees of adversity in all of those races. Perhaps he hasnít surpassed that peak two-year-old effort, but he hasnít exactly needed to do so to retain his position at the top of this division. Assuming that Bolt díOro runs as well as I expect him to, the only question that remains is: Can he beat Justify? I certainly think heís more likely to adapt to whatever pace scenario the Derby presents, given his versatile running style and valuable experience in difficult situations. Defeating Justify is still no small challenge, but given a price that figures to be twice as high as that of the favorite, Iím willing to wager that Bolt díOro is up to the task. The selection.

#12, ENTICED (30-1): Iím not quite sold on the quality of those New York races despite the fact that both the Gotham and Wood Memorial earned respectable speed figures. Of greater concern for Enticed is the distance, since he just doesnít seem to want to go much farther than a mile. While he was soundly bumped a couple of times in upper stretch of the Wood, I still would have liked to see him put up more of a fight in the final furlong. I donít see the path to success for him in this race. Pass.

#13, BRAVAZO (50-1): Heís one of the few runners that truly doesnít belong here. He took advantage of a half-baked Noble Indy in the Risen Star two back, but then was no match for a number of todayís rivals in a subpar edition of the Louisiana Derby. Pass.

#14, MENDELSSOHN (5-1): Perhaps Iíll look back foolishly on my dismissal of this colt when he pulls a Johannesburg and beats the best Americans in their premier race. While I would never bet him in this spot, I do acknowledge that itís possible he may be a special talent, not dissimilar to Justify. The major issue is that you have to base that opinion primarily on his UAE Derby performance, and thatís problematic. The classic Meydan dirt bias reared its ugly head on Dubai World Cup night, wildly exaggerating the performances of horses that showed speed and rode the rail, and Mendelssohn was indeed one of those. Certainly all of those 18 1/2 lengths were not attributable to the track bias, but how many were? Besides, looking beyond concerns about the actual merits of his Dubai performance, do you really trust a horse to ship all the way back from Dubai and win the Derby just 6 weeks later? Horses often need some time to recover from such a trip, and heís getting no serious break. This is not a move thatís worked when Godolphin has tried it in the past, so why should I believe that Aidan OíBrien can pull it off, especially given his generally poor recent record with American starters shipping in from overseas? Pass.

#15, REGARD (50-1): The change of tactics didnít work out in the Santa Anita Derby, since that wasnít a race that was conducive to closers. Unfortunately, his prior efforts arenít quite good enough either. He seems to have plateaued since early season success. Pass.

#16, MAGNUM MOON (6-1): Whereas Justify has maintained his unblemished record through sheer brilliance and towering ability, Magnum Moon has achieved the same through expert management and racing luck. I donít believe that Magnum Moon is significantly more gifted than his stablemate Audible, or even Vino Rosso. However, many will perceive that this is the case due to the air of invincibility that surrounds any undefeated horse. When you dissect Magnum Moonís two stakes wins at Oaklawn, they donít stand up to intense scrutiny. He got a perfect trip in the Rebel, stalking a moderate pace while racing in the clear throughout. I donít think Solomini was ever going to win that race, but he did lose significant momentum when forced to steady at the quarter pole, opening the way for Magnum Moon to register a decisive win. Magnum Moon was even more visually impressive in the Arkansas Derby, but this was once again due to his trip. With little speed signed on, Luis Saez was able to set a slow early pace (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures). Magnum Moon possesses an excellent turn of foot and he used it to put his rivals away in a race where main rival Solomini was again compromised. Magnum Moon drifted badly through the stretch, which is never a great sign. However, what concerns me more is that he will probably have to overcome adversity in this race, the likes of which he has never seen before. A fringe player.

#17, SOLOMINI (30-1): While Magnum Moon enjoyed all the best of it in his Arkansas stakes wins, Solomini got the short end of the stick on each occasion. After stalking the pace along the rail through the early stages of the Rebel, he was shut off and forced to alter course just as he was commencing a rally. Solomini is not a horse with a quick turn of foot, so that interruption in his momentum was especially detrimental. He did get to make a sustained run in the Arkansas Derby next time out, but his overall trip was not in synchronization with the flow of the race. The early pace was slow, and Solomini was reserved in mid-pack while racing extremely wide around both turns. Considering overall ground loss, I thought he ran on well to be third, turning away a challenge from Combatant in deep stretch. The most frustrating part about Solomini is that he has not improved on his excellent two-year-old form so far in 2018. For that reason, itís easy to forget just how good he was last year. He defeated McKinzie in the Los Alamitos Futurity at a time when that rival was near the top of this division, and finished second to Good Magic and Bolt díOro in a pair of Grade 1 races. Itís taken a while Ė perhaps too long Ė for Solomini to figure things out this year. Heís not the most professional runner, and he typically needs vigorous encouragement from his rider to stay in contention. On the other hand, heís bred to get this distance, and his preference for making a long, grinding run may actually be well-suited to the expected dynamics in this Kentucky Derby. You could draw some comparisons between him and 1998 Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet, who also was flying under the radar of a highly regarded Baffert stablemate coming into the Run for the Roses. If youíre looking for a Derby longshot, you could do a lot worse than this colt. A top contender at a price.

#18, VINO ROSSO (12-1): He is one of the few horses in this yearís race who is undoubtedly bred to relish the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby. He is by Curlin, a runner-up in the Belmont Stakes and sire of Belmont winner Palace Malice, and out of a half-sister to Commissioner, who finished second in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Regardless of this chestnut coltís performance on Saturday, he is sure to return in 5 weeks for the 12-furlong Test of the Champion, a race that his trainer typically targets. While all of that is far off in the future, Iím compelled to focus more on his overall development because I feel that he may not be well-suited to the circumstances he will encounter on Saturday. Vino Rosso has struggled when faced with even minor adversity. He got discouraged when placed in behind horses in both of his starts at Tampa, sulking around the far turn of the Tampa Bay Derby as he dropped out of contention. The major difference in the Wood Memorial was that he broke from the outside post position in a field of manageable size, and John Velazquez was able to keep him outside of horses throughout. He ran by a stamina-challenged Enticed in the stretch, and registered a convincing win. However, itís unlikely that everything will go quite as perfectly this time. Heís not a horse with much early speed, despite the fact that he sat relatively close to moderate paces in a few preps. The Pace Projector indicates that he could be as far back as 13th or 14th in the early going of this race, and I donít view him as the kind of horse that can run through traffic and overcome such a deficit. Expect him to be running on well through the lane, but I worry heíll be left with too much to do. Another one on the fringes.

#19, NOBLE INDY (30-1): Within the context of the Louisiana Derby, he ran quite well, surviving a fast pace and gamely turning away late bids from Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack. Based on that performance, itís reasonable to prefer him to that pair. However, the best three-year-olds in the nation were not at the Fair Grounds this winter. Moreover, his running style may not be suited to the pace dynamics of this race. Heís not quite as fast as speeds like Promises Fulfilled and Justify. Breaking from this far outside post position, he may need to tuck in behind horses in the second flight of runners. How will he react to rating farther off the pace than he ever has before? Itís not an ideal situation, especially considering that he would probably have to run the best race of his career to even make it into the superfecta. Pass.

#20, COMBATANT (50-1): Heís as honest as they come, but he clearly lacks the ability of the top contenders in this field. In some ways, heís similar to My Boy Jack, in that his only hope is to take back in the early going and hope to pass as many stragglers as possible. My Boy Jack is generally regarded as the more talented closer, but you could make the argument that Combatant has been hindered by poor trips and unfavorable pace dynamics in more of his races. If Iím using my Boy Jack in superfectas, I have to throw in this colt as well. Possible for a small slice.
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#389249 - 05/05/18 03:35 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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http://www.freaksforum.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/383846/Fundraiser_for_Jose_Flores#Post383846

On this Kentucky Derby Day, I ask that you give a $2 win ticket to this fund and help out a jockeys family. Also if you could let them know you came from Freaks Forum, it would be appreciated. I want them to know we are behind the family in their time of need.

Thank You and enjoy the great day of racing.
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#389270 - 05/05/18 12:04 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS
docsports
Churchill Downs Park Selections for Saturday, May 5, 2018
Churchill Downs
Race 6 - $300K Running of the Humana Distaff Stakes - 7 Furlongs (GII)
TOP HORSE: 4 - Skye Diamonds
SECOND CHOICE: 8 - American Gal
THIRD CHOICE: 1 - Finley'sluckycharm
(LONG SHOT): 7 - Torrent
Recommended Bets ($370 Bets)
$40 W/P/S (4)
$20 W/P/S (8)
$10 W/P/S (1)
$10 Exacta Box (4-8-1-7)
$1 Tri 4/1,5,8,7/1,2,3,5,7,8 $20
$1 Tri 1,5,7,8/4/1,2,3,5,7,8 $20


Race 8 - $1 Million Running of the Churchill Downs Stakes - 7 Furlongs (GII)
TOP HORSE: 7 - Limousine Liberal
SECOND CHOICE: 10 - Awesome Slew
THIRD CHOICE: 3 - Imperial Hint
(LONG SHOT): 1 - Whitmore
Recommended Bets ($330 Bets)
$40 W/P/S (7)
$20 W/P/S (10)
$10 W/P/S (3)
$10 Exacta Box (7,10,3,1)

Race 11 - $1 Million Running of the Old Forester Turf Classic - 1 1/8 Miles (GI)
TOP HORSE: 10 - Beach Patrol
SECOND CHOICE: 7 - Synchrony
THIRD CHOICE: 3 - Kurilov
(LONG SHOT): 4 - Camelot Kitten
Recommended Bets ($330 Bets)
$40 W/P/S (10)
$20 W/P/S (7)
$10 W/P/S (3)
$10 Exacta Box (10,7,3,4)

Race 12 - $2 Million Running of the 144th Kentucky Derby - 1 � Miles (GII)
TOP HORSE: 5 - Audible
SECOND CHOICE: 11 - Bolt d'Oro
THIRD CHOICE: 16 - Magnum Moon
(LONG SHOT): 18 - Vino Rosso
(LONG SHOT 2) 10 - My Boy Jack
Recommended Bets ($330 Bets)
$100 W/P/S (5)
$40 W/P/S (11)
$10 W/P/S (16)
$10 W/P/S (18)
$10 Exacta Box (5,11,16,18)
$1 Tri 5/10,11,16,18/2,7,8,9,10,14,16,18 $28
$1 Tri 10,11,16,18/5/2,7,8,9,10,14,16,18 $28

8 Unit Play Take Audible +100 over Good Magic (Kentucky Derby - Head-to-Head Matchup)
I have been high on Audible and after his big win at the Florida Derby I continue to be high on this horse. Audible can handle a muddy surface if the rain continues to come down today and overall I believe this horse is one of the Top 3 horses. Good Magic won the Blue Grass Stakes and here is another horse that runs well in the mud but with him next to Justify those two might burn each other out from the start. Give me Audible here at +100 and wouldn't shock me to see another brilliant race from the Florida Derby winner.
4 Unit Play Take Magnum Moon -125 over Hofbug (Kentucky Derby - Head-to-Head Matchup)
As long as Magnum Moon does not drift down the stretch he could hit the board and Hofbug is another horse that could get lost in this big field. Short price on Moon on a horse who hasn't lost a race yet.
3 Unit Play Take Lone Sailor +115 over Combatant (Kentucky Derby - Head-to-Head Matchup)
Lone Sailor is a stone cold closer and this horse does not mind the mud and I'm completely shocked that he has +115 attached to this matchup. Combatant is a stalker but with this big field I see him getting lost in the bunch.

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#389336 - 05/05/18 01:43 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
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Mike Battaglia

#14 Mendelssohn-3 million dollar colt has won 4 of 7 including the Breeders Cup JUF Turf and the UAE Derby last out by 18 lengths. Trainer OíBrien is one of the sharpest in the world and he didnít come all this way for a Mint Julep, well not just a Mint Julep anyway.

#7 Justify-The favorite and deserving so. He is a perfect three for three and is getting faster with each race. However, in two of his three wins, he took advantage of a speed favoring track to go wire to wire. He is the talk of the town, but 3-1, in a 20 horse field, with a runner who has only 3 starts, we have to try to beat him.

#9 Hofburg- long shot play. This is another runner who has only 3 starts but he has only 1 win. Trainer Mott, as our followers know, is one of our favorite gambling trainers and it would be the ultimate ticket for him to cash on his 20-1 Derby winner.

#16 Magnum Moon- is a perfect four for four and is another who is getting faster with each start. He drew off to win the ARK Derby last out, is working well, has tactical speed and should not be over looked.

#5 Audible- finished third in his debut then rattled off 4 wins in a row including the Florida Derby last out which he won from off the pace. The Derby Super usually pays huge and this one could easily run up in there.
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#389337 - 05/05/18 01:44 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Eddie Olczyk

#6 Good Magic

Exactas and Trifectas: 6 over 5,7,9,10,18
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#389357 - 05/05/18 05:55 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Originally Posted By: FREAK
Today is always a special day for me and I get pretty emotional. One of my grandfathers owned and raced horses when I was a very young lad. He raced them at Waterford Park which was known at the time as the graveyard of horse racing. There was always bad jokes that three legged horses went there to run. Mind you back in the 70's racing there was $1,000 Claiming type racing. Most people either don't know or don't remember Waterford Park.

Waterford Park became as we know it today as Mountaineer Park. Located in Chester, West Virginia I had the luxury of going to the race track every weekend F/SA/Su and if I had time I would go when they raced during the week. I remember when they first put in simulcasting in the motel. They basically took their ball room and turned it into a huge betting parlor with big screens on the walls like you see in Vegas. That brought people down to the track that would normally wouldn't be there. Keep in mind at that time, you didn't have TVG or HRTV and you had to go to the track or OTB to see the races. There wasn't major coverage like we have today.

At one point Mountaineer was going to close down because they weren't making money. They then put on the ballot a measure that would allow video poker/slots at the track. Since almost everyone in the area either worked or benefited from the track it passed easily. That was the start of Mountaineer becoming what it is today. Bigger prize purses, bigger stakes, better horses to the track and that meant more people to the track.

I had a tear in the eye today when I saw a commercial during the earlier race coverage for Mountaineer and the West Virginia Derby which had ALWAYS been held at Charlestown. It just reminded me of how far things have come not only for Waterford Park but somewhat for myself. Even though I have been out of work for quite a long period of time, I am thankful I still have the forum as my release. I'd love to see people more active and involved as I look at all of you as my extended family.

I know this was a bit of a sentimental look back at something in my life but what good is it if I can't share it with someone.

So yes while they are charging down to the finish line I will be rooting and screaming like hell at my television and my late grandfather will be with me once again.

The irony of all of this is that I really didn't get to know my grandfather I was around 5 or 6 years old, maybe 7 when he passed away. But I remember that larger than life man that I was in awe of that he owned and raced horses. I do remember when he passed away, my grandmother knew nothing of the horse racing business and sold the entire operation. I don't know names of horses he owned or raced but I know he had a passion for them like no other. He would be proud that I took that forward even as a young lad.

Enjoy the race everyone.


I wrote the above back in 2013 and you can go back in time and see the post.

Derby Day has always been special for me and I sit here while writing this and think of the great Sunday Silence.

I am looking forward to the race in about an hour.

My selections for the race are as follows:

#5 Audible to W/P/S

I am looking for him to be sitting behind the pace and at the top of the stretch he'll switch gears and come rolling down the center of the track to win the roses.

Exacta #5 Audible, #7 Justify, #11 Bolt D'Oro

Trifecta

5/7/11
5/7/11
5/7/8/9/10/11/12/15/19

Good Luck and enjoy the races. The rain at the track is only tears of joy from those that departed from up above.
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#389358 - 05/05/18 05:57 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
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ATS Lock Club


2018 Kentucky Derby

Churchill Downs, Race 12 -*(6:50pmEST)

5 Audible
7 Justify
20 Combatant
16 Magnum Moon
11 Bolt díOro

EXTRAS:
4 Flameaway
8 Lone Sailor
9 Hofburg
10 My Boy Jack
12 Enticed

Bet the top horse to win and place.

Use all others for your exotic bets (ie. Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta boxes)*

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#389359 - 05/05/18 05:59 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
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Marco Derby Play


#14 Mendelssohn - Top Choice suggest Win-Place-Show Wager

Love the Post Position as he will have extra room at the break being the last horse in the Main Gate as both the #14 and #15 post has the benefit of the extra space between the main gate and auxiliary gate. I know that horses shipping from overseas havenít had success in the past in the Kentucky Derby but this horse has shown he can ship from overseas and win as he won here in the BC Juvenile Turf Race. It also must be noted that he raced overseas on Oct 14 then at DelMar on Nov 3rd that was pretty remarkable for a 2 year old to run two races so close together and have a grueling ship thrown in on top of that. Mendelssohn raced on dirt for the first time in his last start and had his best race of his career winning the UAE Derby by 18 1/2 lengths. With 7 lifetime starts this horse has the perfect foundation and shipping all over the world has given him experience to handle all kinds of different distractions. With 5 starts at 2 and 2 starts at 3 this horse is fresh and ready to go. Note Mendelssohn has victories carrying 126 Lbs, 131 Lbs and 134 Lbs no other horse in this Derby field has carried more than 124 lbs in victory.



#6 Good Magic - Long shot Pick suggest Win-Place-Show Wager for 1/2 of Mendelssohn

I love how this horse has been brought into this race. He had 3 starts as a two year old and even though he hadnít broke his maiden the connections knew what they had and raced him in the BC Juvenile and he exploded in the stretch to win going away. This year he has 2 starts a 3rd in the Fountain of Youth a race that Chad Brown said he was probably short being the first start of the year . But came back in the Bluegrass and once again showed that explosion in the stretch to pull away. Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby as he owns tactical speed to get away where he wants which is just off the pace setters in a stalking position so that when he does make his move he gets the jump on all the closers. Good Magic is 5 for 5 for hitting the board and with just 5 starts still has potential for another big jump up talent wise. Good Magic is my long shot choice.


#7 Justify


In a few weeks we could be talking about Justify and using words like Super Horse, possible Triple Crown Winner but right now we are asking him to do a lot of things he has never done before. We all know about the curse of Apollo as no horse that hasnít raced as a 2 year old has won the Derby since 1882 when Apollo did it. With only 3 starts Iím more concerned about how will he react to racing on another surface as all three races were at Santa Anita. How does he react to not being on the lead as Promises Fulfilled with be the horse setting the pace? Heís only raced once against stakes company and that was in the Santa Anita Derby and honestly there was only one other horse in that 7 horse field that had a chance and that was Bolt DíOro who didnít need the points to get into the Derby as he already had enough points to get in the Derby but Justify did need to win. How will Justify handle the large field as all 3 of his races had short fields. Again in a few weeks we will have all of these answers but right now at a short price Iím not going to pay to find out but with that said he has to be on our tickets because I donít want to miss an exacta or Trifecta because I left him off the ticket.



#11 Bolt DíOro

Picks up Victor Espinoza as Javier Castellano chooses to ride Audible after being aboard Bolt DíOro the last 2 races. Some will look at that as a strike against Bolt DíOro but I donít as Todd Pletcher will supply Castellano with many more live mounts than Mick Ruis will so this was a business decision I feel more than a talent decision. Victor clearly knows how to win Triple Crown Races so Iím fine with him aboard. There is too much value to leave him off the ticket as because he was clearly beat by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby people are now down on him. Remember he didnít need the points I donít think they raced him all out I think they wanted to leave something in the tank for the Derby. Justify was on an uncontested lead with moderate fractions. He wasnít getting by him that day but Justify wonít be on a uncontested lead today and the difference in price makes this horse attractive. Bolt DíOro will be in that preferred stalking group and is 6 for 6 in the money and 5 of his 6 races were graded stakes. Heís clearly the most accomplished against the toughest completion in the field. Bolt DíOro is the forgotten horse with a ton a value and will be on all my tickets

Here is my exact Betting Ticket how I am playing the Kentucky Derby. I want to thank all of you for your support and Good Luck to us all.



Trifecta Wagers Total Bets = $240


$1 Trifecta 6-7-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 4-5-6-7-9-10-11-14-16-18 = $160

$1 Trifecta 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40

$1 Trifecta 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40




Exacta Wagers Total Bets = $155


$1 Exacta Box 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $30

$3 Exacta Box 6-7-11-14 = $36

$4 Exacta Key 14 over 6-7-9-10-11 = $20

$2 Exacta Key 6-7-9-10-11 over 14 = $10

$3 Exacta Key 6 over 7-9-10-11-14 = $15

$2 Exacta Key 7-9-10-11-14 over 6 = $10

$3 Exacta Key 14 over 4-5-16-18 = $12

$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 14 = $6

$2 Exacta Key 6 over 4-5-16-18 = $8

$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 6 = $8

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#389364 - 05/05/18 06:24 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
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Wizard

Justify
Mendelssohn
Good Magic
My Boy Jack
Hofburg

Win bet Justify

Tri key Justify
7 with 4-5-6-9-10-11-14-17-18 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-19=$108 for a $1.00 wager

Tri Justify for 2nd
5-6-9-10-11-14-18 with 7 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-19=$84.00 for $1.00

This isn't the full report, not sure why it wasn't shared in full.
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#389422 - 05/06/18 12:24 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389423 - 05/06/18 12:31 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389424 - 05/06/18 12:36 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389425 - 05/06/18 01:01 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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2018 Kentucky Derby order of finish

1. Justify
2. Good Magic
3. Audible
4. Regard
5. My Boy Jack
6. Bravazo
7. Hofburg
8. Lone Sailor
9. Vino Rosso
10. Solomini
11. Firenze Fire
12. Bolt díOro
13. Flameaway
14. Enticed
15. Promises Fulfilled
16. Free Drop Billy
17. Noble Indy
18. Combatant
19. Magnum Moon
20. Mendelssohn
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#389563 - 05/08/18 01:47 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program totaled $225.7 million, an 8% increase over the 2017 total and previous record of $209.2 million.

Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby race increased 8% to $149.9 million from the previous record of $139.2 million set last year.

And that was obviously good for business.

ďWe are deeply grateful to all of the fans of the Kentucky Derby around the world who once again made this an amazing and memorable experience,Ē said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of Churchill
Downs Incorporated. ďWe expect the Kentucky Derby Week Adjusted EBITDA to reflect another record with $11.0-to-$13.0 million of growth over last year.Ē

e also know that online wagering accounted for a sizable amount of that. According to Churchill Downs, handle for the day at its online wagering platform TwinSpires was $39.2 million, up 15 percent from 2017. For the featured race alone, online handle at the site and mobile app clocked in at $24.6 million, up 18 percent year over year.

Thatís despite the fact that the site was not taking bets for a period of what appears to be 15 to 20 minutes leading up to post time because of technical difficulties. And those TwinSpires numbers donít include the wagering at several other online horse betting sites.

Put simply, online wagering at just one online betting portal was about 16 percent of total handle for the Derby.

If you donít do online sports betting, youíre doing it wrong

The lesson for states looking to legalize sports wagering should the federal ban be struck down in the Supreme Court sports betting case is simple: Youíre limiting yourself if you donít legalize online betting in parallel with wagering at land-based facilities (casinos, tracks, etc.). Youíre not going to realize the full amount of revenue for gaming companies and in turn tax receipts without online betting.

The horse racing industry has obviously embraced online wagering. And thereís no telling how much more of a drop-off it would have experienced without it. TwinSpires, for its part, was advertising incessantly during Saturdayís races.

And, of course, we have the example of Nevada sports betting. There, handle has increased steadily because of the advent of mobile wagering.

If youíre a state that wants to get the most out of legal sports betting, youíd be silly not to have online wagering. Thankfully, most states considering sports betting bills are looking at legalizing it.

The bottom line: Online wagering is clearly helping increase the amount wagered on horse races. And while the horse racing industry isnít always a model for success, here itís a guidepost for what should happen for sports betting in the US.
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