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#389336 - 05/05/18 01:43 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
FREAK Offline
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Registered: 12/01/00
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Mike Battaglia

#14 Mendelssohn-3 million dollar colt has won 4 of 7 including the Breeders Cup JUF Turf and the UAE Derby last out by 18 lengths. Trainer OíBrien is one of the sharpest in the world and he didnít come all this way for a Mint Julep, well not just a Mint Julep anyway.

#7 Justify-The favorite and deserving so. He is a perfect three for three and is getting faster with each race. However, in two of his three wins, he took advantage of a speed favoring track to go wire to wire. He is the talk of the town, but 3-1, in a 20 horse field, with a runner who has only 3 starts, we have to try to beat him.

#9 Hofburg- long shot play. This is another runner who has only 3 starts but he has only 1 win. Trainer Mott, as our followers know, is one of our favorite gambling trainers and it would be the ultimate ticket for him to cash on his 20-1 Derby winner.

#16 Magnum Moon- is a perfect four for four and is another who is getting faster with each start. He drew off to win the ARK Derby last out, is working well, has tactical speed and should not be over looked.

#5 Audible- finished third in his debut then rattled off 4 wins in a row including the Florida Derby last out which he won from off the pace. The Derby Super usually pays huge and this one could easily run up in there.
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#389337 - 05/05/18 01:44 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Eddie Olczyk

#6 Good Magic

Exactas and Trifectas: 6 over 5,7,9,10,18
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#389357 - 05/05/18 05:55 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Originally Posted By: FREAK
Today is always a special day for me and I get pretty emotional. One of my grandfathers owned and raced horses when I was a very young lad. He raced them at Waterford Park which was known at the time as the graveyard of horse racing. There was always bad jokes that three legged horses went there to run. Mind you back in the 70's racing there was $1,000 Claiming type racing. Most people either don't know or don't remember Waterford Park.

Waterford Park became as we know it today as Mountaineer Park. Located in Chester, West Virginia I had the luxury of going to the race track every weekend F/SA/Su and if I had time I would go when they raced during the week. I remember when they first put in simulcasting in the motel. They basically took their ball room and turned it into a huge betting parlor with big screens on the walls like you see in Vegas. That brought people down to the track that would normally wouldn't be there. Keep in mind at that time, you didn't have TVG or HRTV and you had to go to the track or OTB to see the races. There wasn't major coverage like we have today.

At one point Mountaineer was going to close down because they weren't making money. They then put on the ballot a measure that would allow video poker/slots at the track. Since almost everyone in the area either worked or benefited from the track it passed easily. That was the start of Mountaineer becoming what it is today. Bigger prize purses, bigger stakes, better horses to the track and that meant more people to the track.

I had a tear in the eye today when I saw a commercial during the earlier race coverage for Mountaineer and the West Virginia Derby which had ALWAYS been held at Charlestown. It just reminded me of how far things have come not only for Waterford Park but somewhat for myself. Even though I have been out of work for quite a long period of time, I am thankful I still have the forum as my release. I'd love to see people more active and involved as I look at all of you as my extended family.

I know this was a bit of a sentimental look back at something in my life but what good is it if I can't share it with someone.

So yes while they are charging down to the finish line I will be rooting and screaming like hell at my television and my late grandfather will be with me once again.

The irony of all of this is that I really didn't get to know my grandfather I was around 5 or 6 years old, maybe 7 when he passed away. But I remember that larger than life man that I was in awe of that he owned and raced horses. I do remember when he passed away, my grandmother knew nothing of the horse racing business and sold the entire operation. I don't know names of horses he owned or raced but I know he had a passion for them like no other. He would be proud that I took that forward even as a young lad.

Enjoy the race everyone.


I wrote the above back in 2013 and you can go back in time and see the post.

Derby Day has always been special for me and I sit here while writing this and think of the great Sunday Silence.

I am looking forward to the race in about an hour.

My selections for the race are as follows:

#5 Audible to W/P/S

I am looking for him to be sitting behind the pace and at the top of the stretch he'll switch gears and come rolling down the center of the track to win the roses.

Exacta #5 Audible, #7 Justify, #11 Bolt D'Oro

Trifecta

5/7/11
5/7/11
5/7/8/9/10/11/12/15/19

Good Luck and enjoy the races. The rain at the track is only tears of joy from those that departed from up above.
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#389358 - 05/05/18 05:57 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
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Registered: 06/02/17
Posts: 11907
Loc: California
ATS Lock Club


2018 Kentucky Derby

Churchill Downs, Race 12 -*(6:50pmEST)

5 Audible
7 Justify
20 Combatant
16 Magnum Moon
11 Bolt díOro

EXTRAS:
4 Flameaway
8 Lone Sailor
9 Hofburg
10 My Boy Jack
12 Enticed

Bet the top horse to win and place.

Use all others for your exotic bets (ie. Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta boxes)*

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#389359 - 05/05/18 05:59 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
sailfish Offline
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Registered: 06/02/17
Posts: 11907
Loc: California


Marco Derby Play


#14 Mendelssohn - Top Choice suggest Win-Place-Show Wager

Love the Post Position as he will have extra room at the break being the last horse in the Main Gate as both the #14 and #15 post has the benefit of the extra space between the main gate and auxiliary gate. I know that horses shipping from overseas havenít had success in the past in the Kentucky Derby but this horse has shown he can ship from overseas and win as he won here in the BC Juvenile Turf Race. It also must be noted that he raced overseas on Oct 14 then at DelMar on Nov 3rd that was pretty remarkable for a 2 year old to run two races so close together and have a grueling ship thrown in on top of that. Mendelssohn raced on dirt for the first time in his last start and had his best race of his career winning the UAE Derby by 18 1/2 lengths. With 7 lifetime starts this horse has the perfect foundation and shipping all over the world has given him experience to handle all kinds of different distractions. With 5 starts at 2 and 2 starts at 3 this horse is fresh and ready to go. Note Mendelssohn has victories carrying 126 Lbs, 131 Lbs and 134 Lbs no other horse in this Derby field has carried more than 124 lbs in victory.



#6 Good Magic - Long shot Pick suggest Win-Place-Show Wager for 1/2 of Mendelssohn

I love how this horse has been brought into this race. He had 3 starts as a two year old and even though he hadnít broke his maiden the connections knew what they had and raced him in the BC Juvenile and he exploded in the stretch to win going away. This year he has 2 starts a 3rd in the Fountain of Youth a race that Chad Brown said he was probably short being the first start of the year . But came back in the Bluegrass and once again showed that explosion in the stretch to pull away. Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby as he owns tactical speed to get away where he wants which is just off the pace setters in a stalking position so that when he does make his move he gets the jump on all the closers. Good Magic is 5 for 5 for hitting the board and with just 5 starts still has potential for another big jump up talent wise. Good Magic is my long shot choice.


#7 Justify


In a few weeks we could be talking about Justify and using words like Super Horse, possible Triple Crown Winner but right now we are asking him to do a lot of things he has never done before. We all know about the curse of Apollo as no horse that hasnít raced as a 2 year old has won the Derby since 1882 when Apollo did it. With only 3 starts Iím more concerned about how will he react to racing on another surface as all three races were at Santa Anita. How does he react to not being on the lead as Promises Fulfilled with be the horse setting the pace? Heís only raced once against stakes company and that was in the Santa Anita Derby and honestly there was only one other horse in that 7 horse field that had a chance and that was Bolt DíOro who didnít need the points to get into the Derby as he already had enough points to get in the Derby but Justify did need to win. How will Justify handle the large field as all 3 of his races had short fields. Again in a few weeks we will have all of these answers but right now at a short price Iím not going to pay to find out but with that said he has to be on our tickets because I donít want to miss an exacta or Trifecta because I left him off the ticket.



#11 Bolt DíOro

Picks up Victor Espinoza as Javier Castellano chooses to ride Audible after being aboard Bolt DíOro the last 2 races. Some will look at that as a strike against Bolt DíOro but I donít as Todd Pletcher will supply Castellano with many more live mounts than Mick Ruis will so this was a business decision I feel more than a talent decision. Victor clearly knows how to win Triple Crown Races so Iím fine with him aboard. There is too much value to leave him off the ticket as because he was clearly beat by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby people are now down on him. Remember he didnít need the points I donít think they raced him all out I think they wanted to leave something in the tank for the Derby. Justify was on an uncontested lead with moderate fractions. He wasnít getting by him that day but Justify wonít be on a uncontested lead today and the difference in price makes this horse attractive. Bolt DíOro will be in that preferred stalking group and is 6 for 6 in the money and 5 of his 6 races were graded stakes. Heís clearly the most accomplished against the toughest completion in the field. Bolt DíOro is the forgotten horse with a ton a value and will be on all my tickets

Here is my exact Betting Ticket how I am playing the Kentucky Derby. I want to thank all of you for your support and Good Luck to us all.



Trifecta Wagers Total Bets = $240


$1 Trifecta 6-7-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 4-5-6-7-9-10-11-14-16-18 = $160

$1 Trifecta 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40

$1 Trifecta 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40




Exacta Wagers Total Bets = $155


$1 Exacta Box 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $30

$3 Exacta Box 6-7-11-14 = $36

$4 Exacta Key 14 over 6-7-9-10-11 = $20

$2 Exacta Key 6-7-9-10-11 over 14 = $10

$3 Exacta Key 6 over 7-9-10-11-14 = $15

$2 Exacta Key 7-9-10-11-14 over 6 = $10

$3 Exacta Key 14 over 4-5-16-18 = $12

$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 14 = $6

$2 Exacta Key 6 over 4-5-16-18 = $8

$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 6 = $8

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#389364 - 05/05/18 06:24 PM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: sailfish]
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Registered: 12/01/00
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Loc: Time to play the Game
Wizard

Justify
Mendelssohn
Good Magic
My Boy Jack
Hofburg

Win bet Justify

Tri key Justify
7 with 4-5-6-9-10-11-14-17-18 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-19=$108 for a $1.00 wager

Tri Justify for 2nd
5-6-9-10-11-14-18 with 7 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-19=$84.00 for $1.00

This isn't the full report, not sure why it wasn't shared in full.
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#389422 - 05/06/18 12:24 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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#389423 - 05/06/18 12:31 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
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Loc: Time to play the Game
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#389424 - 05/06/18 12:36 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
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Loc: Time to play the Game
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#389425 - 05/06/18 01:01 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 171096
Loc: Time to play the Game
2018 Kentucky Derby order of finish

1. Justify
2. Good Magic
3. Audible
4. Regard
5. My Boy Jack
6. Bravazo
7. Hofburg
8. Lone Sailor
9. Vino Rosso
10. Solomini
11. Firenze Fire
12. Bolt díOro
13. Flameaway
14. Enticed
15. Promises Fulfilled
16. Free Drop Billy
17. Noble Indy
18. Combatant
19. Magnum Moon
20. Mendelssohn
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#389563 - 05/08/18 01:47 AM Re: 2018 KY Derby Info and Picks [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 171096
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Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program totaled $225.7 million, an 8% increase over the 2017 total and previous record of $209.2 million.

Wagering from all-sources on the Kentucky Derby race increased 8% to $149.9 million from the previous record of $139.2 million set last year.

And that was obviously good for business.

ďWe are deeply grateful to all of the fans of the Kentucky Derby around the world who once again made this an amazing and memorable experience,Ē said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of Churchill
Downs Incorporated. ďWe expect the Kentucky Derby Week Adjusted EBITDA to reflect another record with $11.0-to-$13.0 million of growth over last year.Ē

e also know that online wagering accounted for a sizable amount of that. According to Churchill Downs, handle for the day at its online wagering platform TwinSpires was $39.2 million, up 15 percent from 2017. For the featured race alone, online handle at the site and mobile app clocked in at $24.6 million, up 18 percent year over year.

Thatís despite the fact that the site was not taking bets for a period of what appears to be 15 to 20 minutes leading up to post time because of technical difficulties. And those TwinSpires numbers donít include the wagering at several other online horse betting sites.

Put simply, online wagering at just one online betting portal was about 16 percent of total handle for the Derby.

If you donít do online sports betting, youíre doing it wrong

The lesson for states looking to legalize sports wagering should the federal ban be struck down in the Supreme Court sports betting case is simple: Youíre limiting yourself if you donít legalize online betting in parallel with wagering at land-based facilities (casinos, tracks, etc.). Youíre not going to realize the full amount of revenue for gaming companies and in turn tax receipts without online betting.

The horse racing industry has obviously embraced online wagering. And thereís no telling how much more of a drop-off it would have experienced without it. TwinSpires, for its part, was advertising incessantly during Saturdayís races.

And, of course, we have the example of Nevada sports betting. There, handle has increased steadily because of the advent of mobile wagering.

If youíre a state that wants to get the most out of legal sports betting, youíd be silly not to have online wagering. Thankfully, most states considering sports betting bills are looking at legalizing it.

The bottom line: Online wagering is clearly helping increase the amount wagered on horse races. And while the horse racing industry isnít always a model for success, here itís a guidepost for what should happen for sports betting in the US.
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