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#353243 - 08/01/17 06:09 PM Preseason Trends
FREAK Offline

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 171198
Loc: Time to play the Game
Buffalo is 20-32-2 at home since 1983 – including 15-28-2 as a home favorite
Miami is 10-22-4 as a favorite since 2000 – including 6-16-4 as a home favorite
New England is 25-19 at home since 1995 – including 23-14 as a favorite of fewer than -6
NY Jets are 39-23 as an underdog since 1991 – including 8-3 as a home underdog

Baltimore is 26-15 on the road since 1996 – including 24-11 as a road underdog
Cincinnati is 20-27-1 as a favorite since 1990 – including 1-4 as a road favorite
Cleveland is 19-17 at home since 1999 – including 7-1 as a home underdog
Pittsburgh is 25-18 at home since 1996 – including 2-1 as a home underdog

Houston is 12-7 as a favorite since 2010 – including 9-4 as a home favorite
Indianapolis is 11-13 on the road since 2005 – including 10-12 as a road underdog
Jacksonville is 26-15-2 on the road since 1995 – including 7-3 as a road favorite
Tennessee is 19-13 as an underdog since 1997 – including 19-12 as a road underdog

Denver is 23-10-1 on the road since 2000 – including 9-3 as a road favorite
Kansas City is 23-42-2 at home since 1983 – including 6-18-2 at home since 2004
LA Chargers are 34-21-2 as a favorite since 1984 – including 32-18-1 as a home favorite
Oakland is 24-42-2 as a favorite since 1983 – including 4-9-1 as a road favorite

Dallas is 20-39-2 as a favorite since 1991 – including 2-7 as a road favorite
NY Giants are 21-32-3 as a favorite since 1989 – including 4-8 as a road favorite
Philadelphia is 19-22-2 on the road since 1995 – including 8-15-2 with a spread -3 to +3
Washington is 41-32 on the road since 1983 – including 15-6 as a road favorite

Chicago is 25-39-4 at home since 1983 – including 20-33-4 as a home favorite
Detroit is 30-21-2 at home since 1990 – including 5-1 as a home underdog
Green Bay is 14-18-2 on the road since 2000 – including 1-3 as a road favorite
Minnesota is 40-28-1 at home since 1983 – including 6-3 as a home underdog

Atlanta is 16-21-3 at home since 1997 – including 4-11-1 at home since 2009
Carolina is 17-23-3 as a favorite since 1997 – including 14-19-3 as a home favorite
New Orleans is 25-11-1 on the road since 1999 – including 20-9-1 as a road underdog
Tampa Bay is 30-21-4 as an underdog since 1991 – including 23-17-3 as a road underdog

Arizona is 12-17-1 at home since 2002 – including 6-16 as a home favorite
LA Rams are 24-36-3 as a favorite since 1985 – including 19-31-3 as a home favorite
San Francisco is 15-11-2 at home since 2003 – including 3-1-1 as a home underdog
Seattle is 38-16-1 on the road since 1989 – including 20-6 on the road since 2004
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#354195 - 08/10/17 05:07 PM Re: Preseason Trends [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Offline

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 171198
Loc: Time to play the Game
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 37)

* The Redskins will be missing some key members of their offensive unit as TE Jordan Reed, WR Josh Doctson, WR Jamison Crowder, and WR Kendal Thompson will all sit out Thursday with injuries. Running back Rob Kelley is dealing with a minor neck strain and, although he has not officially been ruled out, is also unlikely to play. If quarterback Kirk Cousin does set foot on the field it will only be for a series or two. The Skins know what they have in backup Colt McCoy so the bulk of the action is expected to go to No. 3 quarterback Nate Sudfeld.

* Ravens' starting quarterback Joe Flacco is nursing a back injury and will not play Thursday night. The team is saying the ailment is relatively minor and he should be ready to play in Week 1 of the regular season, but he is unlikely to suit up at all during the preseason. Ryan Mallet will handle the starting quarterback responsibilities during the preseason and will likely play into the second quarter Thursday as the team works to get him as many starter reps as possible, just in case Flacco's injury lingers into the regular season.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (+1, 36)

* We get to see our first glimpse of the Steve Sarkisian edition of the Falcon’s offense Thursday night in Miami. Now don’t expect too many changes considering the Falcons led the NFL in scoring (by a large margin) with 540 total points. Teams usually play their cards pretty close to the chest in the preseason, but we should get some insight into some of the new wrinkles Sarkisian will bring to the Atlanta attack. Unfortunately Julio Jones won’t be a part of that attack. The star wideout had a bunion removed this offseason and the Falcons won’t be pushing him into game action until at least Week 3.

* There has been a lot of talk out of Dolphins camp this week about the arrival of quarterback Jay Cutler and how his arm has looked pretty good. However, it is unlikely that he will suit up for Thursday’s game. That means look for incumbent backup Matt Moore to do all he can to prove he should still get a chance for this Dolphins team. Running back Jay Ajayi and lineman Jeremy Tunsil are both expected to miss Thursday’s contest.

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3, 38)

* Starting quarterback Drew Brees and newly acquired superstar running back Adrian Peterson will both sit out Thursday's game in Cleveland. The New Orleans offense should not be an issue this season as they ranked second in the NFL in scoring offense last season and first in passing offense. They will, however, put an emphasis on the defensive side of the ball during the preseason.

* Browns head coach Hue Jackson named Brock Osweiler the starting quarterback for preseason Week 1, but made no guarantees moving forward. Jackson also publicly stated his desire to win this preseason. "I want to win them all if I can. We need to go out and play good in front of our fans and go win." Osweiler will play two or three series' and rookie DeShone Kizer is expected to play the entire second half. Rookie defensive end Myles Garrett and fellow rookie defender Jabrill Peppers are both looking to make a major impact in Thursday's contest.

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (+2, 36.5)

* Rookie running back Dalvin Cook has already been named the Vikings starter, according to their first official depth chart and he will be the featured back on Thursday. Offseason acquisition and former Raider, Latavius Murray has been ruled out for this game. Expect to see Cook play for about a quarter in the Vikings first game.

* Bills fans will get a bit of a treat in their preseason opener, as head coach Sean McDermott told reporters that the team’s starters will play “about a quarter, give or take.” That is much more than the regular series or two most NFL starters play in a preseason opener. That includes wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-3.5, 40.5)

* The Branden Albert stuff in Jacksonville is just plain weird, but the Jaguars have questions to answer at offensive line, especially if they are truly changing their offensive philosophy in 2017. We should get a little bit of a glimpse of this Thursday night as first round pick Leonard Fournette is set to make his NFL debut. But it all comes down to Blake Bortles for the Jags, check to see if his footwork looks at all improved in their preseason opener. If not, it could be another long season in Jacksonville.

* Tell me if you guessed this, the Patriots do not care about the preseason. Reports heading into this game are that a number of key starters won’t play at all; including Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman and Mike Gillislee. That means Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett will split the majority of the snaps Thursday. Both have starting experience due to the Brady suspension, but both need a strong showing after a rough start to camp. Keep an eye out for how the Pats use new tight end Dwayne Allen in this game.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (+1, 35.5)

* Denver travels to Chicago for their preseason opener to take on an Bears team led by former Broncos' head coach John Fox. The Broncos are strong at every position on the football field, except the most important one - quarterback. Denver has to figure out whether they are going to enter the season with Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch as their starter. Reports are that neither player has performed well at camp and both will see significant reps Thursday night.

* All three quarterbacks on the Bears' roster are newcomers to the team and they will all see some time on the field in order to get more familiar with Dowell Loggains' offensive system. Mike Glennon will likely play two or three series' followed by some combination of Mark Sanchez (listed as No. 2 on the team's depth chart) and first round draft pick Mitchell Trubisky for the remainder of the football game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1, 38.5)

* The Eagles' starting offense is expected to play one or two series' against the Packers in Green Bay on Thursday night. That "starting offense" will include quarterback Carson Wentz but will likely not include newly acquired wide receiver Alshon Jeffery who is nursing a sore shoulder. After Wentz is done the rest of the game will likely be shared by Matt McGloin and Dane Evans. The Eagles are looking for big things from rookie first round pick Derek Barnett at defensive end and expect him to get into the backfield several times in this game.

* Packers' starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers will not play Thursday night against the Eagles and the throwing duties will be shared by Brett Hundley, Joe Callahan, and undrafted rookie free agent Taysom that order. Rodgers will be joined on the sidelines by wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in a Packers' preseason game back in 2015 - no need to tempt fate there.
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#354209 - 08/10/17 10:44 PM Re: Preseason Trends [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Offline

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 171198
Loc: Time to play the Game
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 37)


There will be a lot of missing firepower for the Steelers. Running back Le’Veon Bell is a camp holdout while QB Ben Roethlisberger and All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown are both ruled out for Friday’s game. Backup signal caller Landry Jones is hurt and won’t suit up either.

Rookie fourth round pick Joshua Dobbs will get the start at quarterback and he’ll be backed up by undrafted free agent Bart Houston.


Head coach Ben McAdoo, who looks like divorce according to the Dan Le Batard Show, hinted his plan for playing time should mirror how the Giants proceeded in Week 1 of the preseason last year. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham both didn’t play in that game.

Expect to see the quarterback snaps shared between Josh Jackson, ex-Jet Geno Smith and rookie Davis Webb. The job for Manning’s top backup is undecided and up for grabs.

The G-Men opened as 2.5-point favorites but the line moved past the key number up to 3.5. The total also moved down 1.5 points from the opening number of 38.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 37)


Tampa Bay will play all healthy players according to HC Dirk Koetter. He told reporters his starters will play the first quarter before giving way to the reserves. That means bettors will get to see how the Bucs offense will look with new additions WR Desean Jackson and rookie TE O.J. Howard.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Griffin and rookie Sefo Liufau complete the QB rotation after starter Jameis Winston.


Head coach Marvin Lewis is back to work after having some work done on his knee. As for his playing time for his players in Friday’s preseason, Lewis isn’t giving reporters much to report on. He says some starters will play and some won’t.

Judging by his decisions in years' past, bettors should expect the starters to play one series before the backups take over the game.

No movement on the spread but the total opened at 38 but has been bet down to 37.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 37.5)


The 49ers QB rotation against the Chiefs will go Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley and rookie third rounder C.J. Beathard will finish the game off. One thing to mention: beat reporter Grant Cohn was critical of San Fran's practices this week and new coach Kyle Shanahan’s lack of discipline.


The Chiefs will play their starters for the first quarter including quarterback Alex Smith. Fifth-year backup QB Tyler Bray will play the second quarter while rookie first round pick Patrick Mahomes II will get mop-up duty in the second half.

KC opened as 4.5-point chalk but have been bet down half a point.
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#354366 - 08/12/17 01:35 AM Re: Preseason Trends [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Offline

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 171198
Loc: Time to play the Game
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 39.5)


Head coach Jack Del Rio won’t say exactly how much time his starters will see but bettors can assume injured stars Amari Cooper and Khalid Mack both won’t play. Del Rio also hinted veteran running back Marshawn Lynch won’t see much – if any – action in the preseason.

Starting QB Derek Carr is coming off an excellent season totaling 28 TDs and almost 4000 passing yards. He’s also coming off a broken leg he suffered at the end of last year. Don’t expect much playing time for the established star player.

That means lots of Connor Cook and former Buffalo Bills first round pick EJ Manuel under center for the Raiders in their first preseason game.


Carson Palmer and the rest of the Arizona Cardinals first teamers will start and are expected to play about 15 snaps. Of note, Palmer threw just once in full practice this week according to Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. Head coach Bruce Arians wants his 37-year-old QB to be rested and ready for the start of the regular season.

Backup QB Drew Stanton is expected to play the second quarter while Blaine Gabbert, who was impressive for the Cards in the Hall of Fame Game, will take all the snaps in the second half.

The spread and total are both holding steady. Worth noting the 39.5 Over/Under line is tied for the highest number set in the preseason this year.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (+3, 37)


Head coach Mike Mularkey hasn’t said exactly how much time his first teamers will get, but starting quarterback Marcus Mariota is expected to play the first series or two in this game. First round pick wideout Corey Davis will not play because of a sore hamstring.

Matt Cassel and Alex Tanney should split the reminder of the snaps under center after Mariota makes his exit. Cassel is the incumbent backup quarterback but reporters close to the team suggest Tanney has a shot at dethroning Cassel from the No. 2 spot on the depth chart.


It’s a three-man race for the starting quarterback job according to head coach Todd Bowles. That means Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty are auditioning through their performances in preseason for the starting job.

Expect McCown to start followed by Hackenberg and then Petty.

The Jets opened as 2.5-point home dogs but have been bet up to +3. The total, meanwhile, moved down half a point from 37.5 to 37.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (+3, 37.5)


There’s not much news out about how long the Cowboys starters will play on Saturday. Dallas beat writers are busy reporting on the effect of star running back Ezekiel Elliott’s six-game suspension will have on the team moving forward.

None of the Cowboys’ starters played in the Hall of Fame Game a week ago, so we should be safe to speculate on the first stringers seeing at least a series on Saturday.


The Rams are in a similar position where there big team news is not what’s going on the field. Los Angeles traded cornerback E.J. Gaines to the Buffalo Bills for former fourth overall pick Sammy Watkins. Watkins won't suit up for this game obviously and neither will holdout defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

Second year signal caller Jared Goff is expected to start while Sean Mannion and Dan Orlovsky will back him up. Talk about an underwhelming trio. Orlovsky was signed just before the Rams opened their training camp last month.

The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites but have been bet up to -3. The total is set at 37.5
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#354455 - 08/13/17 12:22 AM Re: Preseason Trends [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Offline

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 171198
Loc: Time to play the Game
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (PK, 36)


Matt Stafford played one series before sitting down in last season’s preseason opener and might not even get that this year. Question marks at left tackle after Taylor Decker suffered a shoulder injury during the team’s offseason program in June has left a big hole in Stafford’s protection. With Greg Robinson, Storm Norton and/or Cyrus Kouandjio still learning the system the Lions might be reluctant to let their franchise quarterback onto the field in their first preseason game. Jake Rudock and Brad Kaaya are expected to get most of the reps at quarterback. In the battle to be Stafford’s back-up in Week 1.

Lions rookie receiver Kenny Golladay has been generating a lot of buzz at camp and look for him to get a lot of reps. Lions coaches are trying to figure out if the third-round pick can prove worthy of the hype and matching him against unfamiliar competition is the next step in his evaluation.


The Colts have a unique problem, Scott Tolzien is their starting quarterback until Pro Bowler Andrew Luck returns from offseason shoulder surgery. However, Tolzien has only appeared in nine regular-season games in his seven NFL season and needs to take some snaps in game-conditions. Head coach Chuck Pagano has said they will treat Tolzien as the teams starter, then quickly contradicted saying Tolzien needs to play. He will get the start, but for one series or one quarter is still up in the air.

Expect to see the remaining snaps shared between undrafted free agent from Temple Philip Walker and former Miami Hurricane Stephen Morris.

The Lions opened as 1-point road chalk and the line has yet to move off the opening number. The total opened at 37.5 and has been bet down a full point to 36.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 37.5)


Russell Wilson is expected to get the start and play the usual series or two that starters generally get in the preseason opener and rest the remainder of the game. The majority of the remaining snaps belong to second-year TCU grad Trevone Boykin and recent signee Austin Davis. Boykin is the incumbent backup but maturity questions arose after he was arrested in March for marijuana possession and public intoxication. Reports are that neither has distanced themselves at camp in the battle for the backup spot.

The Seahawks rushing attack of Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy, and C.J. Prosise are all expected to play Sunday. Other offensive weapons Luke Wilson and Doug Baldwin are expected to sit out because of health reasons.


The first-team offense and defence are going to see some game-action as coordinators Ken Whisenhunt and Gus Bradley want to see how some of the newest Chargers react. Both units have been overhauled from last season, the offensive line is expected to have three new starters come Week 1. The defensive scheme under Bradley is switching over to a 4-3 defense and game time reps will show which players are understanding the philosophy.

When it comes to quarterback play, Philip Rivers has the 4th longest consecutive starts streak all-time with 185 starts and is the franchise guy. After that things get really interesting for the Chargers. Kellen Clemens is the incumbent and until a few weeks ago was expected to retain his job as no. 2. That was until Cardale Jones was acquired from the Buffalo Bills. New Chargers coach has been singing Jones praise during camp.

Captain Obvious here, Antonio Gates is expected to sit out the preseason.

The Chargers opened as 1.5-point home favorites and that line has been bet up to an even 2. The total hit the betting board at 37.5 and has yet to move off that number.
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