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#344152 - 05/17/17 10:35 PM 2017 Preakness Information
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#344153 - 05/17/17 10:37 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Simply click the link to view the past performances from Brisnet.

The file is hosted directly from freaksforum and not a third party site.


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PreaknessPP.pdf (9742 downloads)
Description: 2017 Preakness Past Performances


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#344154 - 05/17/17 10:44 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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As with the Kentucky Derby once selections are available I will be posting them.
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#344375 - 05/19/17 02:33 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Chris Fallica

1. Multiplier (Trainer: Brendan Walsh, jockey: Joel Rosario); morning line: 30-1

The Illinois Derby winner has improved each race, and his running style suggests he could pick up a minor share. Connections often outrun their odds, but I think a win here could be asking too much; third or fourth wouldn't be out of the question. He certainly shouldn't have as long odds as Term of Art or Senior Investment.

2. Cloud Computing (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano); ML 12-1

He's only raced three times and skipped the Derby after being beaten seven lengths by Irish War Cry in the Wood Memorial Stakes. The last horse to win the Preakness after not running the first weekend in May -- Oaks or Derby -- was Bernardini in 2006, and Bernardini was a special horse. Side note: Javier Castellano, who is on Cloud Computing, rode Bernardini in that Preakness win. Cloud Computing certainly looks the part and has picked up his fair share of supporters this week. I give him a puncher's chance, though he might get bet down some, which doesn't thrill me. He's still worth using, though, as the barn is red-hot right now.

3. Hence (Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux); ML 20-1

This Derby buzz horse didn't do much running in Louisville, which could bode well for his chances here -- or he could flop again and lend credence to those who think he is a one-hit wonder who got a perfect setup in New Mexico. While he's won from near the pace, it's likely he does his best running from off it. I'm certainly willing to give another chance, as Steve Asmussen has won the Preakness a couple of times (yes, with special horses), but if he's the next Louis Quatorze, Hansen or Snow Chief, don't you want to be holding a ticket at nearly 20-1?

Keep in mind that each of the past four years a nice price has completed the exacta, including Cherry Wine last year at 17-1 and Tale of Verve in 2015 at 29-1. So if you think Always Dreaming or Classic Empire is the winner, don't be afraid to use Hence underneath.

4. Always Dreaming (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 4-5

The Derby winner had a dream run on the best part of the track, and with the injury to Royal Mo, he again sees the pace scenario much to his liking, though the fact he drew well inside of Conquest Mo Money could be a bit of a concern if the latter decides not to clear from Post 10.

In the past 10 years, three Derby winners won in the slop and then were beaten at Pimlico on a fast track, including the Todd Pletcher-trained Super Saver in 2010. This is also just the fourth time Pletcher will run a horse back in the Preakness that ran in the Derby. The first three finished eighth, fifth and third in the Preakness, but Always Dreaming appears to be better than those. He is a deserving favorite and the most likely winner favorites have won eight of the last 13 Triple Crown races, and one of the top two choices has won the Preakness in 13 of the past 16 years. But I will also play around with some prices in front and behind him in case some of the concerns become realized.

5. Classic Empire (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux); ML 3-1

After a tough race in Arkansas and a brutal start to the Derby, Mark Casse is giving the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ another shot against Always Dreaming in what could be a more manageable spot. I'm curious, though, how Julien Leparoux will ride him here. His best race was that BC Juvenile win in which he sat right off the lead. I wonder whether he will be a lot closer to the lead Saturday, as with not a lot of speed signed on and Always Dreaming likely to get another perfect stalking trip, maybe Classic Empire will sit a closer, pressing third so not to allow Always Dreaming such a jump on him. If you like Classic Empire, I won't tell you not to bet him, but I'm skeptical.

Nothing has really gone right for him this spring, and if he does press the pace as I think he might, maybe that softens him up, he's punchless in the stretch and it sets things up for a closer. What I would suggest though is not playing him second behind Always Dreaming. It's been 36 years since the favorite won the Preakness and the second choice ran second. If you like Classic Empire, play him to win and/or with longer prices.
6. Gunnevera (Antonio Sano/Mike Smith); ML 15-1

Another horse that didn't do much running in Louisville now gets the services of Mike Smith. Reports are he looks better here than he did going into the Derby, so maybe he can run back to the fountain of youth and light up the tote. He's at the mercy of the pace, however. Mike Smith will surely give him every chance to win, and he's ridden a couple of double-digit prices to third-place finishes in the past few years, so don't be surprised to hear his name called in the stretch; it's just a matter of how many he can pick off before the wire. I was against him in Louisville, but I will use him here as one with an upset chance. Again, prices come in underneath. In the past four years, half of the 12 horses that made up the trifecta had at least 11-1 odds.

7. Term of Art (Doug O'Neill/Jose Ortiz): ML 30-1

A fresh face who has been soundly beaten in all four starts this year -- all in graded stakes races. He'll plod around and possibly pass a couple late, but I can't see him having any impact on the money spots. If you're playing supers, use him sporadically for fourth as a saver, but that's about it.

8. Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill): ML 30-1

This one-run closer got up in the final jump at Keeneland to win the Lexington, but with a pace that seems as if it will not be too fast up front, I can't see a repeat of that performance here. His top Beyer speed figure of 88 is the worst top Beyer in the field. Neither Girvin nor Patch did much in the Derby out of the Louisiana Derby, where Senior Investment ran sixth (of nine). He's here for the Preakness party and to see whether maybe they can run a few down to get a check, but I wouldn't use him for anything other than third at best.

9. Lookin At Lee (Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie); ML 10-1

The Derby runner-up will try and make it the second straight year that a second-place finisher in Louisville has came back to win the Preakness. Before Exaggerator's win last year, the last Derby runner-up to win the Preakness was Prairie Bayou in 1993. I'm not really feeling his chances here, though. He got an extremely fortunate rail run in Louisville, and many of his competitors didn't fire, were stuck in the worst part of the track or were caught up in the cavalry charge. Doesn't mean I won't use him to pick up the pieces for third or fourth here, but I think an exacta finish might just be out of reach, as he surely won't get it all his way again. One little quirky note: The third choice hasn't won the Preakness since Silver Charm 1997, and Lookin At Lee is the third choice on the morning line.

10. Conquest Mo Money (Miguel Hernandez/Jorge Carreno); ML 15-1

My guess is the Triple Crown newcomer will attempt -- successfully -- to clear the field and cut out the fractions, taking them as far as he can. As his Arkansas Derby effort showed, he's a very game animal and might make it a whole lot tougher on Always Dreaming than many think. And if that's the case, it could set things up for someone to pass them both late. I'll be using underneath in tris and supers as his heart and efforts against Classic Empire and Hence merit inclusion.

Fallica's potential ways to play the race:

$1 tri 4/1-2-3-6/1-2-3-5-6-8-9-10 ($28)
$1 tri 4/2-3-6/1-2-3-5-6-8-9-10 ($21)
$1 tri 2-3-6/4-5/1-2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10 ($42)
$2 wps 2-3-6 ($18)
$1 exacta box 2-3-4-5-6 ($20)
$1 exacta box 1-2-3-6/4-5 ($16)
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#344376 - 05/19/17 02:34 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Lane Gold

Value picks

Classic Empire (No. 5, 3-1 ML)

He is the obvious choice to knock off the Derby winner. He was fourth to Always Dreaming a couple of weeks ago in the Derby, but when you dig deeper, there's a lot to like.
The 2-year-old champion had a tough start as Irish War Cry moved over at the start and knocked him off stride. The result is that Classic Empire dropped much farther back than he had ever been before. When he finally got rolling, jockey Julien Leparoux had to go very wide on the final turn.

The other huge plus of the Derby is that he got another race under his belt in 2017, which is important because he missed crucial training time during the winter. He should be sharp as he's been all year.

He will likely be much closer to the lead in the Preakness and with good position, he should have a clean trip. He might not offer a big return on your money but has the best chance to stop Always Dreaming.


Cloud Computing (No. 2, 12-1 ML)

Trainer Chad Brown, one of the rising stars in racing, has achieved a lot of success in the past few years but has yet to win any of the Triple Crown races.

This colt is his first trainee to run in the Middle Jewel, and though inexperienced (three lifetime races), he has a lot of talent. Most recently he was third to Irish War Cry in the Wood Memorial, but Brown had this race in mind for his next start.

He has trained very well since then and has thrived since arriving at Pimlico this week. The biggest challenge for him and jockey Javier Castellano is how the colt handles the large Preakness crowd and making sure he doesn't get pinned down along the inside, as he will be behind the early speed.

Hence (No. 3, 20-1 ML)

He was one of the horses creating buzz during Kentucky Derby week, and expectations were high that he could deliver trainer Steve Asmussen's first Derby victory.

He was sent off at 15-1 in the Derby, but he and jockey Florent Geroux encountered a lot of trouble and finished 11th. Still, Asmussen said this week that he came out of the Derby in great shape.

The key for him is to not fall too far behind. The Preakness is a shorter race than the Derby, and it's really difficult to close from last to first. He has shown the ability to be closer to the lead, and I suspect Geroux and Asmusssen will aim to be in fifth or sixth in the early going.

Gunnevera (No. 6, 15-1 ML)

Gunnevera was one of the feel-good stories of the Derby, as his trainer, Antonio Sano, had been kidnapped twice in his native Venezuela. He ran poorly in the Derby, unfortunately, but there are a lot of reasons he should run better this time around.

First, he won't have the traffic problems he encountered two weeks ago, which caused to him to not have a clear path for an extended period of time something crucial for a horse that is a closer. Next, the track is expected to be fast, with no rain forecast.

Plus, if you like Always Dreaming, it's hard not to like Gunnevera at a good price. He was third to the Derby winner in the Florida Derby despite being last early. Sano also made the smart move of picking up Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith after Castellano bailed and moved to Cloud Computing.

The key for Gunnevera, similar to Hence, is not falling too far behind. If the pace up front is quick and he can be no more than 10-12 lengths behind early, he will have a chance to come rolling down the Pimlico stretch.

Gold's potential ways to play the race

For exactas, play Classic Empire on top of Cloud Computing, Hence, Gunnevera and Always Dreaming. In addition, bet Cloud Computing, Hence and Gunnevera on top of Classic Empire and Always Dreaming.

For those who like to play trifectas and superfectas, you can certainly box those five horses, and if Always Dreaming runs third or worse, you will have a very nice payoff.
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#344377 - 05/19/17 02:37 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)


1 - Multiplier 30/1 Joel Rosario (0-4) Brendan Walsh (Debut)

Notes: Broke his maiden in his third start at the Fair Grounds before taking the Illinois Derby in a sharp time going nine furlongs while making his stakes debut. He’s been sold between starts but his trainer has had him for all four tries. He’s improved in each of his starts but he’ll have to make a big jump to compete here and I don’t think he beat much last out. I’m passing.

2 - Cloud Computing 12/1 Javier Castellano (1-5) Chad Brown (Debut)

Notes: He’ll be making just the fourth start of his career and is still eligible for an entry level allowance contest but consider this: he was second in the Gotham, the prep that yielded the highest Beyer Speed Figure on the Derby Trail in just the second start of his career. Then he ran third and made up ground to do so in the Wood Memorial on a day where speed reigned supreme. Castellano upset this with “new shooter” Bernardini in 2006 and asked off Gunnevera to ride this guy. An obvious player from some of the sharpest connections in the game. I’m using him in all of my wagers.

3 - Hence 20/1 Florent Geroux (0-1) Steve Asmussen (2-5)

Notes: For the life of me, I will never understand the fascination people have with this horse. I wish I could have booked every dollar on him in Louisville, as 15-1 was an awful price on a horse I thought had zero chance. He got beat over 18 lengths and did hardly any running. Guess what? I don’t like him in here either AND I think he’s going to take some more “wiseguy” money.


4 - Always Dreaming 4/5 John Velazquez (0-7) Todd Pletcher (0-8)

Notes: He’s a perfect four for four with Pletcher, all around two turns. He won the Derby decisively, sitting just off the early pacesetter before opening up a sizeable lead and holding sway throughout the Churchill stretch. He should get a similar trip here. He’s your prohibitive Preakness favorite. There are the pros. Here are the cons. Churchill was a “no pass zone” for the three days leading up to and including the Derby. Battle of Midway was third past the wire the first AND final time. They couldn’t have dreamed up, pun intended, a better scenario for him. Pletcher has run 5200 horses over the past five years. Only two of them started with less than 15 days rest. The fact that both lost is unimportant. It just shows that it’s not something the barn does. Maybe he is THAT good and can overcome that. You want to take 4-5 to find out? I don’t. Look, he can obviously win but I honestly don’t think he will. I’ll use him protectively in a saver pick 4 ticket or two and in some exotic wagers but I hope he runs the way most Pletcher Preakness runners have in the past.


5 - Classic Empire 3/1 Julien Leparoux (0-7) Mark Casse (0-3)

Notes: Of all the trips in the Derby, the juvenile champ had the worst, save bucking bronco Thunder Snow. Slammed at start, jostled about, spun wide the entire way…..what might have been had he gotten a clean trip. He ran a dynamite race when you consider everything he went through leading up to the event. But that is the past. We have to worry about now. You’ll hear a lot about Always Dreaming having to deal with just two weeks between efforts but this guy has to deal too. Simply put, do you believe he’s the trip horse out of the Derby or is he the trap? EVERYONE saw what we did so he’ll easily be the second choice. And I just don’t feel comfy making him my top pick. He is an obvious contender and will be on all of my tickets.


6 - Gunnevera 15/1 Mike Smith (1-15) Antonio Sano (Debut)

Notes: More and more I see of him, the more I think that Fountain of Youth explosion is the exception and not the rule. Granted, he didn’t have the best trip in the Derby, put quite a few had worse. He just never fired. And while he gets “Money Mike” in the saddle, what does it say that Castellano jumped ship almost immediately after the Derby to ride Cloud Computing? A slave to pace, he’d really need things to collapse for him to have a chance and that usually doesn’t happen here. I’m passing on him.


7 - Term of Art 30/1 Jose Ortiz (Debut) Doug O’Neill (1-3)

Notes: An also-ran all winter and spring long in SoCal, he’ll get a rider change to one of the more aggressive jockeys in the game. Problem is, he doesn’t have an ounce of speed. If JO gets him near the lead, he’s Houdini. He has a wonderful pedigree but he hasn’t run to it in his previous nine tries. Why should I think he’s going to wake up in Baltimore, of all places? He’s no I’ll Have Another, O’Neill’s winner from 2012, that’s for sure. Not for me.

8 - Senior Investment 30/1 Channing Hill (Debut) Kenny McPeek (0-3)

Notes: Stormed home to take the Lexington over at Keeneland five weeks ago against a suspect bunch. He’s really improved since McPeek added Lasix but I’m always dubious of these horses that winter at the Fair Grounds. His big late rally makes you think he’s going to relish the added distance of the classic races but I don’t think he’s anything more than a decent, middle distance type. Pass.


9 - Lookin At Lee 10/1 Corey Lanerie (0-1) Steve Asmussen (2-5)

Notes: He came less than three lengths away from making me look like a genius in Louisville as I said for months that the Derby had the feel of a horse like him picking up the pieces and paying $65. Well, he’d have paid $68.40 if he could have just run down Always Dreaming but he couldn’t. The rail draw last out, as I expected, was a blessing, as they couldn’t have gotten a better trip. He simply wasn’t good enough. Unfortunately, I think that is this guy’s destiny. He’ll probably never be quite good enough to win. But he always gets a piece. I’ll use him underneath.


10 - Conquest Mo Money 15/1 Jorge Carreno (Debut) Miguel Hernandez (Debut)

Notes: I’m going to get a lot of grief and ribbing for this, but he’s my pick to win the Preakness. There is very little early pace in here, save this guy, who is easily at his best when free-wheeling on the front end. Always Dreaming and Johnny V will be more than happy to use him as a target and I don’t see any of the others in here pressing him early, unless the Classic Empire camp has other ideas, which I think is unlikely. If he gets in front early and I’m right about Always Dreaming, who I truly believe will be calling it a day by the quarter pole, he’ll have a decent-sized lead into the stretch. All he has to do is close the door. Maybe he will. Maybe he won’t. I’m willing to find out at 25-1 or so.
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#344378 - 05/19/17 02:42 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Joe Drape

Classic Empire, Conquest Mo Money, Always Dreaming
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#344379 - 05/19/17 02:43 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Melissa Hoppert

Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing
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#344380 - 05/19/17 02:44 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Brian Zipse

Classic Empire
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#344381 - 05/19/17 02:44 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Victor Mather

Always Dreaming
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#344382 - 05/19/17 02:44 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Neil Greenberg

Always Dreaming
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#344383 - 05/19/17 02:45 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Jason Frakes

Classic Empire
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#344384 - 05/19/17 02:45 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Nicolle Neulis

Conquest Mo Money
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#344385 - 05/19/17 02:45 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Paul Mazu

Always Dreaming
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#344386 - 05/19/17 02:46 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Byron King

Always Dreaming
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#344387 - 05/19/17 02:47 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Steve Haskin

Always Dreaming
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#344388 - 05/19/17 02:47 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Stephen Edelson

Conquest Mo Money-Always Dreaming-Classic Empire
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#344389 - 05/19/17 02:48 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Kevin Steimle

Always Dreaming-Classic Empire-Lookin at Lee
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#344390 - 05/19/17 02:48 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Josh Newman

Classic Empire-Always Dreaming-Cloud Computing
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#344391 - 05/19/17 02:48 PM Re: 2017 Preakness Information [Re: FREAK]
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Steven Falk

Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing, Classic Empire
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