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#325560 - 11/05/16 02:08 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Jeff Siegel

ACE 12: Post 5:35 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-California Chrome; 10-Arrogate

The BC Classic boils down to just two and though California Chrome absolutely deserves top billing, the truth is that he’s never faced a horse as talented and as brilliant as Arrogate (the reverse, of course, is true). There is no gamble here other than to decide whether to include both in rolling exotic play or take a stand with one or the other. Both are in peak form, both have trained marvelously for the race, and both should run as well as they’re capable. The issue is, how much upside does Arrogate have? His 122 Beyer speed figure when running the fastest mile and one-quarter in the history of Saratoga in his Travers Stakes romp exceeds California Chrome’s career top by nine points. What happens if Arrogate runs back to that race today? What happens if runs even better? What is California Chrome capable of if pushed to the limit? We’re just going to enjoy the spectacle, and whatever happens, happens.
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#325561 - 11/05/16 02:10 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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BRAD FREE

FOURTH RACE
Stretch-out AMERICAN GAL can lead wire to wire in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Both sprints were sharp front-running wins; she is the pace of the race wheeling back two weeks after a facile comeback. Her outside post dictates front-running strategy. The last-out maiden win by VALADORNA was impressive. She rolled by six lengths without being asked for her best; her final time was one-fifth faster than the G1 Alcibiades. A good filly making just her third career start, VALADORNA is a “must use.” NOTED AND QUOTED, stablemate of the top choice, could get a good trip forwardly placed, although her G1 victory last out was only okay visually.

FIFTH RACE
LADY ELI has lost once in eight starts, that was her first start following a one-year layoff. Her second start back was a G1 win at Belmont; she returns to Santa Anita as the horse to beat in the BC Filly & Mare Turf. Wagering value is the issue; she is the 5-2 favorite in a deep field. European shipper PRETTY PERFECT is worth consideration at 15-1. Her most recent start in England was good; she opened up late in the race but found a mile and one-half slightly out of reach and finished fourth. The improving filly shortens to a mile and one-quarter and adds Lasix. SEVENTH HEAVEN had a rough trip last out, fifth in the same race in England ‘PERFECT exits. A generous assessment for ‘HEAVEN would be to call the effort inconclusive. She previously won back-to-back Group 1s and will roll late.

SIXTH RACE
The 2016 BC Sprint might not be as tough as previous years, therefore it’s a good spot to take a shot at a price. Stretch-runner MIND YOUR BISCUITS, listed at 20-1, arrives from Belmont in peak form. His works prior to shipping were outstanding; he has trained with enthusiasm at Santa Anita. MASOCHISTIC is vastly improved this year; both wins were impressive and he thrived in recent works. Comfortably drawn near the outside, with tactical speed and a late kick, he should fire. A. P. INDIAN is a fast gelding from the East Coast; five straight wins include four graded stakes.

SEVENTH RACE
OM is poised to upset the BC Turf Sprint. His front-running style around two turns often translates to sprint success on the downhill course. He has sharp recent form, makes his third start back from a layoff, has tactical speed but does not require the lead, and is drawn perfectly near the outside. Even if he is bet down slightly from his 12-1 morning line, he is worth backing. KARAR was crushed last out by BC Mile entrant Limato, but KARAR actually ran well in that G2 in France. He fought resolutely to save second in that seven-furlong sprint, and might like this downhill six and a half. WASHINGTON DC is a Group-1 placed European sprinter.

EIGHTH RACE
NOT THIS TIME looks and acts like the real deal. The Kentucky-based colt is a deserving favorite in the BC Juvenile. He dominated maidens and a G3 by blowout margins (10 lengths, nearly 9 lengths). Since arriving in California, he trains like he is still on an upward pattern. THREE RULES arrives from Florida with a 5-for-5 record including a 10-length romp last out in a route restricted to state-breds. Though he is fast, he won his first four starts from slightly off the pace. Perhaps he can tuck into a cozy trip behind SYNDERGAARD. The latter is probably the speed. The New York shipper missed by a nose in a G1 mile last out after blazing a half-mile in :44.63. He will be running long for the first time.

NINTH RACE
FLINTSHIRE, a Grade 1/Group 1 winner, is expected to rebound from his odds-on defeat last out and re-establish himself as the country’s top turf male. His first three starts this year were convincing; he was bogged last time by “yielding” ground at Belmont, finishing second. His best races are on “firm,” the new Santa Anita turf is fast and kind to his closing style. ULYSSES is a potential knockout. Though his European form is modest (win and second in G3s), his trainer has a long history of Breeders’ Cup success. Michael Stoute won four BC Turfs, two BC F&M Turfs. HIGHLAND REEL, runner-up last out in the Arc and three-time G1 winner, defeated Flintshire in December and finished one-two in 11 of 18.

TENTH RACE
The BC Filly and Mare Sprint is inscrutable. Although 3yos historically are up against it this race, CARINA MIA should appreciate easier company and a shorter trip after trying Songbird last out in a route. CARINA MIA has enough speed to be forwardly placed; the pace scenario is murky. WONDER GAL misfired on “muddy” last out, but her form on dry land is fast. Upset chance. HAVEYOUGONEAWAY has not run a bad race this year, five wins and two seconds from seven starts including a G1 last out. The challenge is pace. She typically rallies from midfield; the fractions could be soft.

ELEVENTH RACE
European shipper LIMATO stretches out in the BC Mile, after a crushing win in a seven-furlong G1 in France. The 8-for-13 gelding is turning left for the first time in his career; if he handles the corners he might simply be the best horse in the field. SPECTRE, a filly from France, is an upset candidate. G1-placed last out, her form improved as the season unfolded. This is her first start in two months; she should fire at a price. The amazing TEPIN (last 14 starts = 11 wins, 3 seconds) has had an ambitious international campaign. No blame her for finishing second last out behind a breakaway front-runner, but uncertain if she is as sharp now as early in the year. She won the 2015 BC Mile at Keeneland.

TWELFTH RACE
CALIFORNIA CHROME is the most probable winner of the 2016 Breeders’ Cup. The top horse in North America, he is 6-for-6 this year from California to Dubai and back. The consistently high figures he puts up are appropriate; he has tactical speed for a front-running or pressing trip, and is repeatedly proven at a mile and one-quarter. His main foe is the intriguing 3-year-old ARROGATE. The latter produced a spectacular victory last out in the Travers, winning by more than 13 lengths while running a mile and quarter in 1:59.36. Question is, can he run two alike? A bomber to sneak into the trifecta is WIN THE SPACE, who might be better than perceived. His form has gradually improved, his third-place finish last out might have been better than looked due to a tendency to lean in on rivals. But he does not lean in when he races inside, and if able to work out a ground-saving trip in this speed-filled field, he could hit the board at giant odds.
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#325562 - 11/05/16 02:11 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Bob Mieszerski

Race 9
Flintshire: Disappointed at 1-5 over yielding course
he may not have cared for, can rebound over a firm
layout.
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#325563 - 11/05/16 02:12 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Aaron Vercruysse


Race #4 (BC Juvenile Fillies)

3-11-6

#3 Valadorna was lights out last time when breaking the maiden. Obviously the water gets much deeper here, but the bullet work since her win shows me there is much more to come and that race took nothing out of her. Great betting race with many possibilities.

Race #5 (BC F/M Turf)

3-1-8

#3 Seventh Heaven has the style that we have seen from Euro invaders prove successful for many years. She has a devastating late kick and goes for top class human connections (as do they all in the BC). She wins or goes home as her record indicates with no minor awards, thinking here is she wins and then goes home with a late rally.

Race #6 (BC Sprint)

7-9-1

#7 Masochistic is the horse to beat and could be sitting on a career best effort, but is he the horse to bet? Anything can happen in these BC races and Masochistic deserves top billing, but the chances of #9 Limousine Liberal (added blinkers last time and ran huge) and #1 Mind Your Biscuits (the true late threat in this race) are perhaps too good to pass up, especially at the inviting odds they will bring.

Race #7 (BC Turf Sprint)

14-9-12

#14 Celestine has handled everything top trainer Bill Mott has thrown at her. Her style seems ideal for this hillside course going about 6 1/2 F and the outside draw is advantageous. On or near the lead and blasting home is the call here in solid race top to bottom.

Race #8 (BC Juvenile)

6-4-10

#6 Three Rules gets a chance to show what he can do against the big boys. You can only defeat who runs against you so I will not hold that Florida form against "Rules". Picture a dream trip just off Syndergaard and then first run on deep closers. Best part is the price we get to find out if he is this good.

Race #9 (BC TURF)

3-10-4

#3 Ectot showed when he was younger that once he gets good he can stay good winning four group races in a row. Last was a move forward and maybe a sign of good things to come. Speed to use if needed in race that lacks that commodity is also nice incentive for your $2 win bet.

Race #10 (BC F/M Sprint)

1-3-6

#1 Paolo Queen is a huge price on the morning line and a possible upsetter just like two starts back in the Grade 1 Test. She has speed if needed and she will here from the fence. If she is on the send and clears, I like her chances to slow things down up there with not much speed to her outside. Love the return of Javier as well, who is this barns go-to rider at GP all winter.

Race #11 (BC MILE)

10-9-2

I have been excited about today for many reasons, but one of them is #10 Limato who was jaw-dropping last time in group 1 in France. The mile is not an issue, the lasix should only help and a clean trip is all we need for the single in the rolling exotics.

Race #12 (BC Classic)

4-9-5

#4 California Chrome is all world. Perfect this year, perfect style (versatile) and loves this track. Exclamation point to a great year inserted here at the wire. Thinking is #10 Arrogate with either win or regress and if "CC" wins then regress is the option, so with that said #9 Hoppertunity who got a nice confidence building win at BEL last time could be along in the stretch to pick up the pieces, which if you play exactas and trifectas is worth your while.
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#325564 - 11/05/16 02:13 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Eddie Wilson

FOURTH RACE:

Union Strike (#9)

Does indeed get the acid test today but we think this daughter of Union Rags still has some room for improvement. Encouraged by the presence of Martin Garcia who takes the call, this two-year-old filly continues to work well in the a.m. and boasts improving numbers. Lots to like here.
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#325565 - 11/05/16 02:15 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Tom Cassidy

JUVENILE FILLIES

#3 Valadorna
#12 American Gal
#4 Yellow Agate

This year's edition is wide-open, but I am going to make Valadorna the top selection off her impressive maiden score at Keeneland last out. This filly took over and drew away from the field after a wide trip to win easily in 1:44.47. The Grade 1 Alcibiades, run the same day, was won by Dancing Rags in 1:44.69. Valadorna proved in her debut effort that she has no problem being inside horses and that she can handle kickback without an issue.

American Gal returns to the races 13 days after her impressive win in the Anoakia Stakes and I loved how she looked ready to take off in the final furlong. After winning that 6-furlong event easily, she'll try two turns for the first time, but her pedigree suggests that should be no problem. She has a tough draw, but she looks like a major player.

I liked Yellow Agate's debut as she moved inside of a horse on the far turn to continue her rally and eventually cross the wire first, and she followed that up with a game victory in her stakes debut. She has the pedigree to appreciate the added ground and is another contender.
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#325566 - 11/05/16 02:17 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Dave Weaver

FILLY AND MARE TURF

#1 Sea Calisi
#8 Lady Eli
#9 Ryans Charm

Trainer Chad Brown has won this race three of the last four years and appears to hold the aces once again this year with two top contenders. #1 Sea Calisi is the larger of the two prices at 8-1 and my preference. She did lose to stablemate Lady Eli last out, but that was a compact field of six and the race never had a chance to develop in her favor. With a bulky field today, there should be much more action on the lead and I'm expecting the back-of-the-pack rally we saw in the Beverly D. to come to fruition.

#8 Lady Eli has been an awe-inspiring story. Last July, after beginning her career a perfect 6-for-6, she stepped on a nail and developed a case of laminitis in both front feet. After a lengthy recovery she finally raced 14 months later, suffering her first defeat narrowly. She bounced back with a win in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont Park, re-stamping her self as the queen of the division.

#9 Ryans Charm has been a sensation in Peru and will get tested for class. A 15-time winner, she carries a 6-race win streak, including an amazing victory last time out where she ended up rallying all the way on the outside rail nearly 15 wide. She attracts the services of her countryman Rafael Bejarano -- all stars could be aligned at a huge price!
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#325567 - 11/05/16 02:19 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Matt Carothers

Sprint

#8 Noholdingback Bear
#1 Mind Your Biscuits
#2 Drefong
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#325568 - 11/05/16 02:20 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Britney Eurton

Turf Sprint

#2 Obviously
#14 Celestine
#8 Washington DC
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#325569 - 11/05/16 02:21 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Scott Hazelton

Juvenile

#10 Not This Time
#2 Syndergaard
#5 Classic Empire
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#325570 - 11/05/16 02:21 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Simon Bray

Turf

#4 Flintshire
#7 Ulysses
#12 Highland Reel
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#325571 - 11/05/16 02:22 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Rich Perloff

Filly and Mare Sprint

#12 Finest City
#8 Carina Mia
#2 Haveyougoneaway
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#325572 - 11/05/16 02:23 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Mike Joyce

Mile

#2 Alice Springs
#9 Ironicus
#8 Tepin
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#325573 - 11/05/16 02:23 AM Re: Breeders Cup [Re: FREAK]
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Todd Schrupp

Classic

#4 California Chrome
#10 Arrogate
#6 Melatonin
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