Sports Betting

Betting Forum


FREAKSFORUM Exclusive: 50% Bonus up to $300

Use Code: FREAK 300 to get this bonus. Click on the banner to take you to Intertops and be part of the action !!!!

Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Topic Options
#310803 - 05/05/16 12:56 PM 2016 Kentucky Derby
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310804 - 05/05/16 01:00 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Laura Pugh


With the Kentucky Derby draw for 2016 in the books, ladies and gents, I give you my picks from the winner to the last loser to cross the finish line.

1.) Outwork
2.) Exaggerator
3.) Nyquist
4.) Gun Runner
5.) Suddenbreakingnews
6.) Mohaymen
7.) Mor Spirit
8.) Creator
9.) Majesto
10.) My Man Sam
11.) Brodyís Cause
12.) Destin
13.) Mo Tom
14.) Shagaf
15.) Whitmore
16.) Lani
17.) Oscar Nominated
18.) Danzing Candy
19.) Tomís Ready
20.) Trojan Nation.

The draw has set up for a very solid pace early, which could set this up for horses coming from off the pace.

Danzing Candy, a horse who NEEDS the lead, drew post 20. He will need to gun it to establish the early lead, and with him being so close to the crowd, it is very possibly he overreacts and takes hold of the bit.

Mohaymen, who has been training like a pack of energizer bunnies, also gives the impression that he may want to be close to, if not on the lead. His post position 14, could easily allow that to happen as the only speed to his inside is Nyquist (13).

The other pace presence, Outwork, has drawn post 15, which should allow him to sit comfortably off whomever may establish early dominance. This should allow him the ability to get the first jump once the pace begins to slow down, giving him the best chance to hit the wire first.

A swift pace will help the likes of mid-pack runners and deep closers such as Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews. Gun Runner also looks to sit a good trip right behind the leaders, I just wonder if heíll have enough to overcome Nyquist while fending off the late charge of some others.

Despite the pace, I believe we will see Nyquist hanging around. The amount of foundation put into him may look light this year, but that is only on races run. His morning exercises have been long and stamina building, which should help him late, when others grow leg weary.

So, there you have it. Not just a Kentucky Derby top four or five but a ranking of the entire field!
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310806 - 05/05/16 01:03 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
James Scully

The biggest twist in Wednesdayís Kentucky Derby post draw came when expected pacemaker Danzing Candy drew post 20. Thoughts of the Santa Anita Derby (G1), when the speedy colt ran off in the opening furlongs, immediately flashed through my mind because Mike Smith will be hustling his mount from the break in an attempt to clear rivals and avoid getting caught wide into the first turn.

And Danzing Candy wonít be the only horse showing speed. Outwork has been a confirmed front-runner in all four career starts, forcing the action from the start of the Wood Memorial (G1) before prevailing by a nose, and the improving Uncle Mo colt figures to be flash forward from post 15.

Nyquist has been installed as the 3-1 choice, with Exaggerator next on the morning line at 8-1 and a trio of horses at 10-1, and the early tactics for the heavy favorite from post 13 will be key to how the race develops. Connections were probably happy to draw outside Ė the undefeated juvenile champion rallied to capture the Breedersí Cup Juvenile (G1) from post 14 -- but Nyquist also possesses high speed and trainer Doug OíNeill expected to be in the first flight without of preponderance of early runners entered.

Will Nyquist allow the horses to his outside (Danzing Candy and Outwork) to cross over in front of him? Or does he get caught dueling up front as the field passes the stands for the first time?

Post 5 wasnít ideal for Gun Runner, who could use his natural speed to avoid getting shuffled back entering the first turn, but I donít expect to see him contesting the pace. He needs to establish early positioning just behind the front-runners but Gun Runner could force the outside speed to go faster than preferred.

The post draw should help the late runners, a contingent of about 10 horses who have been facing the prospect of moderate fractions up front. Thereís still no guarantee the pace will be too taxing, and troubled trips remain likely as horses get stopped in traffic while attempting to rally, but the pace scenario could change significantly with the speed outside.

Trojan Nation, Suddenbreakingnews, Creator and Mo Tom drew the inside the four posts, respectively, but they were going to take back regardless and now have the opportunity to save ground in the early stages. And they could be joined toward the back of the pack by My Man Sam (post 6), Lani (8), Whitmore (10), Exaggerator (11), Tomís Ready (12), Majesto (18) and Brodyís Cause (19).

Thatís a lot of closers in a 20-horse field.
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310807 - 05/05/16 01:05 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Vance Hanson

Undefeated juvenile champion Nyquist was installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite for Saturday's 142nd Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs at the post position draw conducted late Wednesday afternoon.

Nyquist will break from post 13 in a field of 20, perhaps a little farther outside than his connections might have preferred. Although an outside trip is possible from this starting position, it must be remembered the colt endured an extremely wide journey last fall in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and prevailed.

Danzing Candy, who has long been expected to be the primary pacesetter, arguably drew worst of all in post 20. However, he will be one of the last horses loaded into the starting gate and might not have too much trouble clearing most of the foes to his inside to gain early position.

The dreaded inside posts, 1 and 2, along with posts 3 and 4, were all taken by confirmed closers. The maiden Trojan Nation, runner-up in the Wood Memorial (G1), drew post 1 early in the process. If it wasn't planned already, he'll be forced to take back early where he'll be in company with Suddenbreakingnews, Creator, and Mo Tom, who respectively drew the next three slots.

Breaking from post 5, the winningest post in Derby history, is Gun Runner. In most every respect it's a positive draw as the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) winner figures to outbreak the four rivals to his inside and secure a stalking trip hugging the rail. A pocket journey similar to the one he enjoyed at Fair Grounds could be in the offing.

Longshot Oscar Nominated and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Destin drew on either side of the unpredictable Japanese invader Lani, and connections will have to hope the quirky UAE Derby (G2) hero does not do anything unexpected.

Those that were probably expected to stalk the pace will have to do so from outside posts. Mohaymen (14), Outwork (15), Mor Spirit (17), and possibly Brody's Cause (19) will all have to show some early foot in order to gain favorable position before entering the first turn.
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310808 - 05/05/16 01:20 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
The link below is a PDF version of Past Performances for this years Kentucky Derby.

I have provided this information for big races over the years and rather than offer a link to a website, I have this year just posted the PDF as it is safer and easier for you to get the information.

Enjoy and feel free to post your Kentucky Derby Picks in this thread.


Attachments
2016KYDerby.pdf (32 downloads)

_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310917 - 05/06/16 07:06 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Mike Dempsey

Kentucky Derby

#17 to win

Exacta -- 11,17/11,13,14,17
Trifecta -- 11,17/11,13,14,17/3,9,11,13,14,17
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310918 - 05/06/16 07:07 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Robert Ferringo

After last year's Triple Crown winner with American Pharoah what can horse racing do for an encore?

Well, don't look now, but there is another potentially dominating horse in Nyquist that could be ready for its close-up. Nyquist has won every race it has ever run. The horse is a perfect 7-for-7, taking on all of the best horses in this year's Derby Field on a variety of tracks all over the country. This horse has been brilliant but is getting about 1/100th of the buzz that Pharoah had coming into last year. Why? This year's class of 3-year-olds is a major drop-off from last year's group - and Nyquist could end up just being a few ticks below last year's all-time great horse. Is Nyquist going to win the Triple Crown? No. Definitely not. Would Nyquist beat American Pharoah? Nope. But this horse is head and shoulders better than what it is competing against this weekend and that is our key horse to hit the board on Saturday.

There's only one problem: the Derby typically is not a favorite's race. The race day favorite has only won the Roses five times in the last 25 years. And a single-digit favorite has won this race just 13 of the last 26 instances. So it is basically a 50-50 proposition whether or not a big underdog comes through. I have tabbed a few double-digit longshots that I think have a reach chance to come through. And if any of our horses come through - with Nyquist in the money - then we could hit an exacta AND a trifecta and it could end up being a pretty solid haul.

As with last year, there are a lot of closers but not many sprinters. So I actually expect a slower pace. This is an incredibly weak field of 3-year-olds overall compared to last year's banner group. Only four of the 20 horses have hit a 100 Beyer Speed Rating and several prep races were won with weak speed times like 88 or 90.

Enjoy the race and let's go Nyquist!

$20 EXACTA WHEEL: NO. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18

TOTAL WAGER: $220

This is our prime wager and the same type of bet that we hit for $800 in last year's Derby. This is also the bet that you can change the value of. If you don't want to bet as much money then you could lower this exacta to just $5 (making it a $55 total wager) or drop it down to a $10 exacta ($110 total wager).

$2 EXACTA BOX: No. 3, No. 9, No. 11, and No. 13

TOTAL WAGER: $48

These are probably my four favorite horses in the race. Creator has the right style, is one of the fastest horses, and has a great draw. There's a lot to like about Destin, who set a track record at the Tampa Bay Derby and has posted over a 100 Beyer while winning three of five races. Exaggerato hasn't been able to get over the hump against Nyquist, but you have to wonder if this horse is due. And, finnaly, Nyquist is the deserving favorite here and looking for win No. 8 in a row. I think these horses will battle.

$5 PLACE - No. 9 Destin
$5 SHOW - No. 9 Destin

TOTAL WAGER: $15

$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: NO. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18.

TOTAL WAGER: $110

If Nyquist wins then we have positioned ourselves in a great spot to hit our exacta AND cash this trifecta for what could be a HUGE day.

$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18

TOTAL WAGER: $110

This is keying our 11 horses over Nyquist to Place (finish second) in this race.

$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 13 Nyquist

TOTAL WAGER: $110

This is keying our 11 horses over Nyquist to Show (finish third) in this race.
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310927 - 05/06/16 11:00 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
SCOTT HAZELTON

1st: Gun Runner
2nd: Suddenbreakingnews
3rd: Nyquist

Oh, letís lean on a cliche to kick this off during a time of year littered with cliches in racing: What a difference a year makes. One year removed from a ďFirst Saturday in MayĒ that began a historic five-week run, it hasnít been as convincing searching for our next ďPharoah,Ē even with an unbeaten 2-year-old
champ present. I know, I know, heís done nothing wrong. Nyquist traveled and won the ďbiggest pre-Derby matchupĒ weíve ever seen. Even though only one showed up for that match, I still canít do it. On that, letís get to it.

Gun Runner is a horse that has progressed well during his career. His only
bad race came at two in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, and he was
beaten by a horse that was ahead of the curve at the time, Airoforce. Asmussen
says that Gun Runner is a far more physically mature horse since then, and if you dig in to his pedigree you can see why. His dam, Quiet Giant, was a graded winner for Pletcher. Go one more generation back on the damís side, and youíll find Quiet Giantís mare, Quiet Dance, who produced Breedersí Cup Classic champ Saint Liam.

The lesson here is that great mares produce great mares. Pedigree aside, his stalking style is perfect for a race that lacks pace, and the likely pace-setter, Danzig Candy, should come back. Asmussen will get one of these, trust me, and this group of talent he has is one of the best heís had since Rachel Alexandra retired.

Suddenbreakingnews is part of the closer contingent that is one of the thickest in Derby history. The key to his success is his consistency in his closing efforts. After his Southwest Stakes win, he had a troubled run in the Rebel, which is better than it looks on paper. As for the Arkansas Derby, he just lost too much ground while Creator saved so much more, something that Ricardo Santana, Jr., knows he has to do for Asmussen.

Hereís to hoping Luis Quinonez can do that with post 2 on Saturday. Meanwhile, I didnít say up top that I didnít think Nyquist canít hit the board! Heíll be close to the pace, likely laying second early on, and the horse knows nothing but winning. The bottom line is that he will be within four lengths of the early leader, putting him in a prime spot to complete the trifecta or superfecta.
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310928 - 05/06/16 11:03 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Timeform US

ē Win/Place bet on #2 Suddenbreakingnews

ē Exactas with Suddenbreakingnews in second under key contenders:
3, 5, 9, 11, 13, 14, 19 over 2

ē Trifectas keying Suddenbreakingnews in all 3 positions:
2 with 5, 11, 13 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 with 5, 11, 13
5, 11, 13 with 2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
5, 11, 13 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 with 2

ē Superfecta using Suddenbreakingnews in 4th:
11, 13 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 19 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11,
13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 with 2
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310929 - 05/06/16 11:08 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
James Scully

Mor Spirit shipped to Churchill Downs to record a good second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall and following victories in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3), he recorded runner-up finishes in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1). I wonít count the latter against him Ė the dark bay didnít handle the sloppy track well Ė and Mor Spiritís 102 BRIS Speed rating over a fast track in the San Felipe is among the best in the field at two turns. Ten furlongs looks like no issue for the son of Eskendereya and trainer Bob Baffert (4) and jockey Gary Stevens (3) have captured 7 editions of the Derby. Connections taught the colt be more push-button over winter/early spring, but Mor Spirit possesses good tactical speed and has been drilled for quickness in a couple of recent works. I expect him to sit behind the early leaders, well ahead of the congestion behind him, and offer a bold rally on the far turn that carries him to victory.
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310930 - 05/06/16 11:08 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Jennifer Caldwell

Nyquist may not seem like much of a pick considering heís the favorite, but Iíve rooted for the little guy ever since he won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last September. Like Rodney Dangerfield, he just never seemed to get any respect outside of California. He was sent off at 9-2 in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile (G1) and produced a nice win to remain undefeated and wrap up Eclipse Award honors as the 2015 champion two-year-old male. Even that didnít seem to garner Nyquist much regard two races later in the Florida Derby (G1). Everyone seemed to think Mohaymen was going to school the Doug OíNeill trainee, but Nyquist romped by 3 1/4 front-running lengths to remain undefeated and secure his spot as the morning-line favorite for the 142nd edition of the Kentucky Derby (G1). Now everyone is paying attention to the bay colt and he could continue to earn the accolades he deserves on Saturday.
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310931 - 05/06/16 11:09 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Kellie Reilly

Unlike just about every Derby in my 35 years as a fan, Iíve had a tough time coming up with strong opinions over the course of this entire prep season. Normally thereís a top contender Iím totally against, or at least skeptical of and willing to oppose. This year, I have generally positive thoughts, or benevolent neutrality, on an embarrassing number of runners. So my top selection doesnít reflect a vote against anyone Ė least of all Nyquist, whom I respect greatly Ė but rather a very subjective intuition about Gun Runner. Maybe itís the pedigree (same cross as Shared Belief, and out of a Grade 2-winning half-sister to Saint Liam, a family Iím an abject fool for). Maybe itís his handy athleticism, enabling him to secure good position relative to any pace, coupled with a fearlessness in maneuvering through on the inside. Maybe itís his vibe of going into all-out attack mode down the stretch. Maybe it was his terrific drill in company April 25, evincing a beautiful stride along with the impression that his best is still to come. Maybe itís the fact that jockey Florent Geroux is riding unbelievably well at the moment, and that trainer Steve Asmussen will be inducted into the Hall of Fame in August. Letís call it a combination of all of the above.
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310932 - 05/06/16 11:10 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Vance Hanson

After agonizing over this contentious Kentucky Derby (G1) renewal the past several days (a potentially futile exercise given my comical 20-year drought of top Derby selection not winning), I've landed on Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Creator. Slow to develop but really coming around the past several months, the deep-closing gray enters in peak form and has an excellent pedigree for 1 1/4 miles being a son of Tapit and the long-winded Peruvian mare Morena. Whether he can get an adequate pace up front and a path through traffic are the main concerns, but I'll take a chance he gets both and that he has the sufficient talent to take yet another step forward in the most important race of his life. For what it's worth, Creator emerged from a final list that included Nyquist, whose pedigree for 10 furlongs I ultimately wasn't too keen on; Exaggerator, who has a terrific turn of foot but might have been overly flattered by a sloppy track in his final prep; and Outwork, an impressive physical specimen who is expected to be close to the pace throughout but might not see out the trip.
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310933 - 05/06/16 11:12 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Anthony Stabile


The preps have been run, the works are done and now it's time to get it on.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 142nd Kentucky Derby!

Kentucky Derby Odds

2016 Breakdown

PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)

1 - Trojan Nation (50/1) Aaron Gryder (0-3) Patrick Gallagher (0-1)
Notes: There is a reason a maiden hasnít won this race in over eighty years and thatís because it is arguably the toughest race in the world to win. Plus, heís picking one of the most contentious runnings to try and pull off a seemingly impossible task. The only race on his card I remotely like is his second place finish in the Wood Memorial last out but I think he just freaked over a surface a few of his rivals didnít love. Not sure Iíd bet him in a maiden race on the undercard. A complete toss out.

2 Ė Suddenbreakingnews (20/1) Luis Quinonez (Debut) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: He burst on the scene with a rousing last to first run in the Southwest but couldnít find the winnersí circle in his last two, including a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby last out. There are a ton of deep, one run closers in this group and frankly he hasnít done anything to overly impress me. If youíre on social media, however, youíll know he is a darling of many and sort of the ďwise-guyĒ horse you see every single year so heíll probably take some money. Itís a wide open year, and 15 of them can hit the board, including him, Iím just not sold he can finish first or second.

3 Ė Creator (10/1) Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: Of all the deep closers in this race, Iím most impressed with him because heís made up his ground while navigating through traffic instead of going around it. Heís never seven, eight or nine wide. Heís right in the thick of things. He knifed his was through a bulky field in the Arkansas Derby last out and outkicked horses that had the jump on him. My biggest problem with him is that five or six others figure to be launching their bids when he does. Makes for an awfully crowded stretch run. Itís awfully tough for horses like him to win this race for the most part but he might just be good enough. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.

4 - Mo Tom (20/1) Corey Lanerie (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-4)
Notes: Heís provided the soap opera on the Trail this year. After a stretch drive in the Risen Star that saw him take up in the midst of what appeared to be a winning move, many wondered not if but by how far would he win the Louisiana Derby. When his rider went inside, again, and got stopped, again, we waited to see if Lanerie would keep the mount for the Derby. They dragged it out a week or so but finally announced that he would in fact ride. What I find funny is that fact that such a deal is made over him. Heís another one run closer in a race full of them. I feel confident in saying two things: Lanerie will have him on the outside and he wonít be in the exacta. Use only in the bottom half of tris and supers.

5 - Gun Runner 10/1) Florent Geroux (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: The draw didnít really hurt any of the main contenders, save one or two, but this guy really benefitted from it. The four horses to his inside and three to his outside donít have much, if any, early speed which should allow him to get a trip similar to the last two heís had that resulted in Risen Star and Louisiana Derby scores. He hasnít run in six weeks and only has two preps this year but did win his debut and off of a three month break to start this season. Asmussen was announced as a recent inductee to the Hall of Fame this year up in Saratoga in August and he could make it his most memorable yet with a win in the race every trainer wants to win. He has it all and should be right around his morning line odds. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.

6 - My Man Sam 20/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: In his little time on the racetrack, this colt has impressed me. I loved his second place finish to up and comer Matt King Coal on a speed biased course that aided the winner two back and loved his late rally to get the place money in the Blue Grass. He gets reunited with the jock that rode him in his first three but itís worth noting that Ortiz has won one race at Churchill on the dirt while Leparoux, who was aboard last out, has won 10 riding titles. I feel that of all the ďdeep closers,Ē heís the one that could in fact lay a bit closer. At that price I hope Iím right. Using him on most of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.

7 - Oscar Nominated 50/1 Julien Leparoux (0-8) Mike Maker (0-8)
Notes: The Ramseys are putting up $200K to supplement this horse to the Triple Crown and I can think of 200K better things to do with the money. Heís never run on conventional dirt. Ever. All turf and one synthetic start, his win in the Spiral last out in which he was probably third best. His pedigree lends to added distanceÖ..on the grass. There arenít too many Iím completely tossing from everything this year but he is one of them.

8 Ė Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (0-1) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: This yearís mystery horse from Dubai, by way of Japan who just so happens to be bred in Kentucky. Heís taken the long way to get back to the Bluegrass State if you ask me. Look, people are impressed by the fact that heís beaten fields of 15 and 16, that his races are all over a distance of ground and that heís by Tapit. Thatís all well and good but keep in mind he beat a filly who had a miserable trip in his points race, the U.A.E. Derby, has had strange training regimen since arriving here, to say the least and is rumored to be a head case. Sounds like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. Besides, I saw this movie last year when the lead role went to Mubtaahij. That ending stunk. This one doesnít figure to be much better. Iím tossing him.

9 Ė Destin 15/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: Heís going to try and buck a ton of history as this will be his first start in eight weeks and heís never raced past 1 1/16 miles. He looked good winning the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby but they both came at Tampa Bay Downs, one of the quirkiest racing surfaces in the land. Horses often love it or hate it. He obviously fell into the first column. I donít think Iím saying anything groundbreaking when I say something has to be up because you donít attack this race the way he is doing so unless you have to. Combine that with Pletcherís record in this and the fact that his presence, as well as Castellanoís will lead to this horse taking some money and heís an easy toss for me.

10 Ė Whitmore 20/1 Victor Espinoza (3-7) Ron Moquett (0-1)
Notes: One of a few that has given me fits this year. I feel like he always runs a good race yet always manages to find a way to lose. It bugs me that heís won both of his sprints and heís winless in his four starts around two turns and that he always seems to be losing ground at the end of his distance races. But heís had excuses in almost all of them, namely last out when he clipped heels and almost went down a few strides out of the gate when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. With hopes of getting him in the game a bit earlier on, his connections have reached out to 2002, 2014 and 2015 Derby winner Espinoza. He won all three of those on or close to the lead and while Iím not saying heíll be forwardly placed I feel like heíll be closer early on than he has been in a long while. And that makes him a player. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.

11 Ė Exaggerator 8/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-19) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: I think part of the reason this Derby puzzle seems especially tough this year is because three of the final, major preps were run over wet tracks, including the Santa Anita Derby where this guy blew their doors off with a scintillating move approaching the far turn. Itís doubly tough to figure out how much the track played a part with him because many felt he was sitting on that kind of race BUT he had great wet track form in the past. I feel like it was a combination of both, but I donít like the fact that his connections have made it clear they plan to use the same tactics Ė take back and make one big run Ė in here. Running past seven at Santa Anita is lot different than 19 in Kentucky in this race, especially this year, as there figures to be a bigger crowd at the tail end of the bunch than anywhere else. His rider has won this in 1998, 2000 and 2008 and would love to get number four for his brother. On some of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.

12 - Tomís Ready 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-4)
Notes: He hails from a barn that has been uncanny and getting longshots to run at big prices on racingsí biggest stages. After that, I donít have a lot of good things to say, if any. Heís won just once in nine starts (it did come at Churchill) and it looks to me like he doesnít want to go a step past a mile, a theory supported by his breeding and previous races. He was second in the Louisiana Derby last out because someone had to be and his buddy Mo Tom got stopped cold along the rail. One of just a handful that is a complete toss for me.

13 Ė Nyquist 3/1 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug OíNeill (1-4)
Notes: The juvenile Eclipse champ has done nothing wrong, as heís undefeated in his seven race career. His connections all teamed up to win this in 2012 with Iíll Have Another. California based runners have won the last two runnings and three of the last four. Heís by one of the hottest sires in the land, Uncle Mo. What could possibly stop him? Well, there is always the extra furlong, which some, including me, are dubious of when it comes to his pedigree. Then there is the issue of his schedule. Iím not a big fan of just two preps, especially when one of them is seven furlongs. But, if youíre trying to win a nine furlong race, like they did last out in the Florida Derby when he was alive for a $1 million bonus. It sounds ridiculous, but I think their Derby, at the very least their Derby payday, was last time. Heís going to be the clear cut favorite, say 3-1 or 7-2 and in a year that is completely wide open there is nothing better than getting the chalk out of the number. Iím trying to beat him on top but understand if you donít.

14 Ė Mohaymen 10/1 Junior Alvarado (Debut) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-6)
Notes: I have never seen a bandwagon empty like his did in the minutes after he lost the epic, East versus West, battle of the undefeateds in the Florida Derby to Nyquist. He went from number one to number done. His rider has said he didnít feel like the ďreal MohaymenĒ as soon as he climbed aboard and his trainer has gone on the record saying heís had two bad minutes, those two, in his entire career. That was a quirky track at Gulfstream that day. It rained, dried out, rained again. Quirky to say the least. Maybe he didnít like it. Maybe it was something else. Maybe it was both. All I know is that the last time a McLaughlin runner lost a prep many thought heíd win it was last year with Frosted, who fell apart in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth. When he returned six weeks later, he rolled in the Wood Memorial. There arenít many better at picking them apart, stripping them down and building them back up than Kiaran. With all of that said, heís my pick to win Kentucky Derby 142!!!

15 Ė Outwork 15/1 John Velazquez (1-17) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: Heís a length away from being undefeated in his four starts and is already a G1 winner. Heís got speed, which only one or two others in here can brag about and sports connections that have literally won hundreds of races as a team. His pedigree, especially that Empire Maker dam, lead me to believe the distance shouldnít be an issue and a front end trip, as long as he doesnít get cooked in a duel with Danzing Candy, should make his job that much easier. If youíre looking for a knock, he beat a maiden in the slowest Wood Memorial ever run in itsí 92 year history last out and Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, has an abysmal record in the event. Still, heís in the capable hands of Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who won the 2011 Derby aboard Animal Kingdom when this horseís sire, Uncle Mo, was scratched days before the race, and he should get a dream trip. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.

16 Ė Shagaf 20/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: He won his first two starts around one turn impressively then grinded out a win in the Gotham over the maiden Laoban in his two turn debut when it appeared as if he didnít like running inside horses. He saved ground again in the Wood Memorial but didnít kick in through the stretch. Maybe it was the trip or the mud or his immaturity. This horse has talent and maybe that proverbial lightbulb just needs to go off. Itís tough to bank on that in here. Iíve thought for a while that he was a Belmont Stakes kind of horse Ė break, lay three lengths off the lead and make a sustained run Ė and maybe the best way to get him there is by running in here. New jock Rosario won this in 2013 so maybe he can wake him up. I donít think heíll be in the exacta but could be persuaded into using him on the bottom end of other exotics.

17 - Mor Spirit 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-21) Bob Baffert (4-26)
Notes: No horse has more accomplished human connections as Stevens won this in 1988, 1995 and in 1997 with Baffert trainee Silver Charm while Baffert won three others in 1998, 2002 and last year with American Pharoah. Heís already a G1 winner having taken the Los Alamitos Futurity, owns a won and a couple of seconds and runs like the distance shouldnít be a problem. All the makings of a Derby winner, right? Wrong. I have NEVER liked this horse. I hate the way he travels and think he won the phoniest G1 race ever and has beaten up on weaker foes. When he runs into horses that have a smidge of talent, like Danzing Candy and Exaggerator, he proves to be no match. Heíll take a ton of money but not a dollar of it will be mine.

18 Ė Majesto 30/1 Emisael Jaramillo (Debut) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)
Notes: Tough to like this guy with just one win from six starts to his name. And you could have clocked him with an egg timer from the quarter pole home when he broke his maiden in start five. He parlayed a perfect trip into a second place finish in the Florida Derby last out. I wouldnít be sold on him winning an entry level allowance contest at this point so Iím certainly not using him in here.

19 - Brodyís Cause 12/1 Luis Saez (0-3) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: I believe there are two horses for courses in here. Destin is one. He is the other. He LOVES Keeneland, having won both of his G1s, including the Blue Grass last out, there and finished third in the B.C Juvenile. Heís gotten great set ups in all three of those races as well. I donít envision that happening here. Post shouldnít hurt as heíll be part of the cavalry in the latter part of the race but I donít think heís good enough. While I rate My Man Sam a chance, heís still eligible for an entry level allowance while Cherry Winer and Laoban are the two AEs in here because they didnít have enough points to get in. Thatís who he beat last time out. I know he broke his maiden over this course but thatís not enough to sway me. He can get a minor award, I guess, but Iím going to let him beat me.

20 - Danzing Candy 15/1 Mike Smith (1-21) Clifford Sise, Jr. (Debut)
Notes: I had a really tough time deciding what to do with this guy. Then my buddy Rob Toscano pointed out that the longer the run-ups to the first turn of his two turn races have been the faster heís gone in the early going. If that pattern holds form, weíre in for a serious opening half mile or so as heíll have around 3/8ths of a mile before he hits the first bend. Combine that with his trainer saying the things that made him come to Kentucky after an abysmal effort out in the Santa Anita Derby are ďowners,Ē and his post draw and it made my decision much, much easier. I want nothing to do with him.

21 - Laoban (AE) Cornelio Velasquez (0-4) Eric Guillot. (Debut)
Notes: If he gets in heíll break from an outside post, likely next to the controlling speed. As a fellow front runner, that doesnít bode well. Oh, by the way, like Trojan Nation, heís a maiden. No thanks.

22 Ė Cherry Wine (AE) Robby Albarado (0-14) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: He needs two to scratch to get in and I know a lot of people have been waiting for him to really strut his stuff. I donít know where theyíve seen this ďstuffĒ before because Iíve never been a fan but thatís what makes this world go around. Iíll pass
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310934 - 05/06/16 11:13 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Monique Vag

This year marks the 142nd Kentucky Derby. The last time we saw back-to-back Triple Crown winners was in 1977 and 1978. With American Pharoahís Triple Crown victory still fresh in our minds, perhaps this year will prove history does repeat itself.

Hereís a horse-by-horse betting breakdown for this Saturdayís Kentucky Derby odds:

1. Trojan Nation (Jockey Ė Aaron Gryder, 50-1): Drew the dreaded rail post and for a maiden runner, this is practically a death sentence. Like many others in here, heíll be closing from far back. His pedigree states he should take well to the distance.

2. Suddenbreakingnews (Luis Quinonez, 20-1): Another closer who may appreciate the added furlongs and longer stretch. Heís a graded stakes winner who has only been worse than second once. Drawing inside isnít the worst, but the No. 2 hole has not been a favorable post with the last No. 2 horse winning in 1978.

3. Creator (Ricardo Santana Jr, 10-1): He quietly ran the third-highest Beyer speed figure last time out. Heís coming fresh off of a win in the Arkansas Derby and will likely appreciate the added furlongs to make his move late.

4. Mo Tom (Corey Lanerie, 20-1): This colt has often been left with too much work to do in the stretch, so heís certainly hoping for room to run in the Kentucky Derby. Heís had legitimate excuses in his last couple of races and seems to have the raw talent necessary but will need some racing luck.

5. Gun Runner (Florent Geroux, 10-1): Has been perfect since Geroux took over riding. Itís been over 20 years since a horse has won the Kentucky Derby exiting a win in the Louisiana Derby and if youíre one for trends, he has that going against him. Heís already raced over the Churchill surface which is always an added bonus. Heís one who will like to sit closer to the pace.

6. My Man Sam (Irad Ortiz Jr, 20-1): He has only raced in one graded stakes event, the Blue Grass, where he finished second to Brodyís Cause. In that race, he overcame a wide trip out of the far outside post. Like many others in here, heíll be hoping for a favorable pace scenario and will be attempting to close late.

7. Oscar Nominated (Julien Leparoux, 50-1): Heís never ran on the dirt before and his sire is known to produce turf runners, so we question how he will take to the dirt surface. Heíll likely be the longest price on the board Saturday and for good reason. A positive about this one is that heís coming off two straight wins.

8. Lani (Yutaka Take, 30-1): The huge wild card whoís Kentucky bred but based out of Japan. His pedigree undoubtedly indicates he wants to go a mile and a quarter. Broke poorly in his last start and rallied from last to win the UAE Derby. Heís shown a history of being highly temperamental, but the raw talent is certainly there.

9. Destin (Javier Castellano, 15-1): Heís coming off breaking the track record at Tampa Bay Downs in the G2 Derby. This colt has won two straight and is one of only three others to post a Beyer figure of 100 or more. Trainer Todd Pletcher has decided to give this one eight weeks off. Heíll certainly be fresh.

10. Whitmore (Victor Espinoza, 20-1): Heís had a couple of wide trips and was squeezed at the start of the Arkansas Derby in his last start, so he may have been forced to race from much farther back than intended. He certainly has the hot jockey in Espinoza, who is going for his third Derby victory in a row. This gelding returns to the track he broke his maiden at.

11. Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux, 8-1): This colt blew by Mor Spirit in his last start in the final turn, producing one of the most visually impressive performances out of a three year old this year. Heíll likely be positioned mid pack pending a good break and we anticipate heíll have every shot to make a good, clean run in the stretch.

12. Tomís Ready (Brian Hernandez Jr, 30-1): Raced very poorly in the Risen Star, but came back to finish second last time out in the Louisiana Derby to Gun Runner. His only win has come against other maidens, so a finish in the money would be surprising to most. Huge long shot.

13. Nyquist (Mario Gutierrez, 3-1): He has shown racing versatility with wins coming from off the pace, wire-to-wire, and off stalking trips. He also boasts an undefeated record after excelling at two and now three years old. He hasnít shown flashy victories, but heís gotten the job done every single time. Hard to fault a consistent winner.

14. Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado, 10-1): Suffered his first career defeat last time out to Nyquist. One can argue this $2.2 million purchase didnít take well to the ďgoodĒ track surface at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby. The huge questions in here are: will he handle the distance? And is he capable of a bounce-back performance following a subpar effort?

15. Outwork (John Velazquez, 15-1): One of a few in here who have shown some early speed. Heís quietly won three of four races including a victory in the Wood Memorial last time out. I question his ability to handle the distance. With others closing late, I think this one may be involved early but slowly start fading as others make their move.

16. Shagaf (Joel Rosario, 20-1): One can argue he did not take well to the sloppy track in the Wood Memorial. Heís another who looks like they will struggle getting the extra furlongs the Derby provides. His pedigree certainly supports the argument that heís better suited at shorter distances.

17. Mor Spirit (Gary Stevens, 12-1): Has been first or second in all of his career starts. Seems like most of the speed horses drew outside, which isnít necessarily the worst for their running style. I donít think heíll be on the lead, but heíll be within a couple lengths off the front early on and hoping to hang on for a piece late.

18. Majesto (Emisael Jaramilla, 30-1): It took him five starts to break his maiden, but he was runner-up in the Florida Derby in his first start against graded stakes company. Bred to handle the distance, heíll be one of many in here closing late.

19. Brodyís Cause (Luis Saez, 12-1): Consistency is an issue with this horse. He ran excellent in the Blue Grass but also could not have looked worse two starts back in the Tampa Bay Derby. He doesnít need the cleanest of breaks, because heíll be closing from far, far, far back. With his best effort, heís definitely capable.

20. Danzing Candy (Mike Smith, 15-1): Finally, a horse who will attempt to wire the field like he did in the San Felipe two starts back. He has working to his advantage that few others in here are even interested in being closer to the pace, let alone on the lead. Having Mike Smith aboard is always a positive, but there are obvious distance concerns surrounding this one. Heíll be left with not much choice but to go to the front and hope to linger for a piece.

Also Eligible: Laoban (50/1), Cherry Wine (30/1)

Picks: 1. Nyquist. 2. Destin. 3. Mohaymen. 4. Exaggerator. 5. Lani
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310935 - 05/06/16 11:20 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Wizard

Pace Scenario With DANZING CANDY breaking from post 20, Mike Smith should have no trouble getting to the front with an alert break. He is simply quicker early than any other horse in the Derby field. The horses breaking from posts 1-2-3-4, TROJAN NATION, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and MO TOM have no early speed and figure to drop well back of the leaders early on. GUN RUNNER, DESTIN, NYQUIST, MOHAYMEN, OUTWORK, TOM'S READY, SHAGAF , EXAGGERATOR and MOR SPIRIT will spread out behind the pacesetter, some taking up the chase, but all within the top 10 positions entering the backstretch. MY MAN SAM, OSCAR NOMINATED, LANI, WHITMORE, MAJESTO and BRODY'S CALL are the others who are expected to do their running from the back of the pack.

The fractions set by DANZING CANDY will be honest with several horses making middle moves, which will result in the pace heating up around the far turn. I cannot recall a Kentucky Derby in recent memory that has so many deep closers who look very similar on paper and ability. A good trip or a bad one will spell the difference in the outcome of many of these runners. Obviously NYQUIST has the best credentials, but if he does not get the distance and the right set up as the 3-1 morning-line favorite, you can expect big prices and generous payoffs if he does not win.

M/L Jockey Trainer 1st Selection # 6 MY MAN SAM 20-1 ORTIZ, JR. I BROWN C

Along with Outwork and Shagaf, My Man Sam is the third horse in the Kentucky Derby field that has the least racing experience with just 4 starts. His inexperience should not be held against this steadily improving 3-year-old conditioned by top horseman Chad Brown.

Draw a line through his debut when a troubled fifth sprinting on the Aqueduct inner dirt track in December. 6 furlongs is far too short for him. It was evident My Man Sam wanted distance when he exploded to an 8 length maiden win stretching out to 2 turns for the first time in his 3-year-old debut. On March 6, My Man Sam was bet down to the 7-5 favorite, despite facing stakes winner Matt King Coal, who was the lone front runner in the field, but who was also returning from a layoff. As expected Matt King Coal took command right from the start and held on gamely, with My Man Sam cutting into his lead with every stride. Time had run out for him to overhaul the front runner on a track which played kind to speed.

My Man Sam had shown enough ability to search for the right Grade 1 stake to try to accumulate enough points to earn a start in the Kentucky Derby. Rather than keeping him in New York for the Wood Memorial where Chad Brown had the favorite with Shagaf, Brown shipped his charge to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes. Little did the connections know until entries were drawn that a full field of 14 horses would break from the gate, with My Man Sam drawing post 14.

When I handicapped the race, there was really no hesitation on my part to make him my top selection, even knowing that his post was going to be very difficult for him to overcome. If My Man Sam had shown an affinity to race on or near the lead or even rate in mid pack, the outside draw would have certainly resulted in a very wide trip and certain defeat. The fact that he is a deep closer, gave jockey Julian Leparoux no choice but to take My Man Sam back to the rear of the field and ease his way to the inside. From that vantage point, racing a dozen lengths off the leaders, he could bide his time as the race developed in front of him and then ask My Man Sam to begin his rally on the far turn. This colt prefers to race outside of horses, so the danger from falling so far back and having to pass 13 horses, was likely to force Leparoux to take the overland route. My Man Sam, under a full head of stream, was fanned out towards the middle of the track turning for home. He had to find another gear once straightened out for the stretch run. Once he did, My Man Sam was picking up horses one-by-one. In the end, he had too much ground to make up and too little time to run down winner Brody's Cause who got the jump on him. In the end, it was post 14 that was the main culprit for his defeat. The fact that My Man Sam could even run second with so much ground loss, proved to everyone watching his performance that he was more than worthy of consideration as one of the major contenders in the Run for the Roses.

The question going forward is can My Man Sam continue to improve making only his fifth career start after having run nearly once a month since December. That is quite a bit of racing over a relatively short period of time. Like many others in the field, My Man Sam has no early speed and will drop well back off the early leaders into the clubhouse turn. He is not quite as slow in the early going as several others in the Derby field who I would label deep stone cold closers. I can see at least 5 other horses who could be lagging farther behind him.

My Man Sam is more a grinder than a horse with cat-like acceleration. My concern is that he will have to sustain too long a run, which could take the punch out of him in the late stages of the race. In his favor is that Irad Ortiz will be back aboard. Ortiz is one of racing's bright young jockeys, who has a keen sense of timing. Ortiz will have to utilize every ounce of his talent to time his move just perfectly and avoid trouble in the midst of his late run. It is certain that Chad Brown will have My Man Sam as good as hands can make him. If everything falls just in place and the stars are aligned for his connections on Saturday, My Man Sam can win the Kentucky Derby at a generous price.

My Man Sam drew post 6 which is ideal for him, unlike post 14 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Like many others in this field, he will have to work out a trip, but I have complete faith in Irad Ortiz Jr. that he will get My Man Sam to settle and avoid trouble and too wide a trip. I picked My Man Sam to win the Blue Grass without Irad aboard. Now one of my favorite riders is back in the saddle. At 20-1 on the morning-line, My Man Sam now becomes my top pick. Since I can see either of my top 4 selections winning, this year's Kentucky Derby becomes a 'price play' for the Wizard. At those generous odds which I expect My Man Sam to be, I'll take my shot for a generous payoff and hold my breath for a trouble free journey.

2nd Selection #19 BRODY'S CAUSE 12-1 SAEZ L ROMANS D

The son of Giant's Causeway is the only horse entered in the Derby field who can say he is 'Kentucky's' hometown boy. There are many in the field who have been bred in the 'Blue Grass' state. Not only was Brody's Cause born here, but his trainer Dale Roman has been a fixture on the Churchill Downs backstretch since taking out his trainer's license in 1984. Born in Louisville and a son of a former trainer, Roman's saddled his first winner at Turfway Park in Florence Kentucky three year later. Romans has saddled many Grade 1 stakes winners since, including three Breeders' cup victories, winning the 2005 Dubai World Cup with Roses In May and the 2011 Preakness with Shackleford. Other notable horses trained by Roman's are Kitten's Joy, Paddy's O'Prado, Little Mike and who could forget Keen Ice who he predicted would upset American Pharoah in last year's Travers Stakes at 16-1 odds and he did just that. The highlight of Dale Roman's career came in 2012 when he was the recipient of the Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer. But all these accomplishments would pale in comparison to winning the one race which has eluded him, the Kentucky Derby. Since 2006, Romans has started six horses in the Derby. The closest he has come are a pair of third place finishes with Paddy O'Prado in 2010 and Dullahan in 2012. This year Dale Romans, along with successful owner Albaugh Family Stable (owner of Paddy O'Prado) arrive at the big dance with Brody's Cause, who completes the Kentucky connection.

Brody's Cause began his career on turf at Ellis Park located in Henderson Kentucky. He was defeated by 25 lengths that day and has never seen the grass again... except for eating it. Brody's Cause made a huge turnaround when placed on dirt for the first time 41 days later at a 1 turn mile at Churchill Downs to upset a strong maiden field at 33-1. He proved that win was no fluke by stepping up sharply in class into the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October to score again, this time at 11-1. In both races, Brody's Cause picked off rivals one by one from the back of the pack.

Brody's Cause had earned the chance to conclude his 2-year-old campaign with a victory and Eclipse Award as the top 2-yearold in the country in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. Churchill Down leading rider Corey Lanerie, who had been aboard for the first time in the Breeders' Futurity victory, was once again content to let Brody's Cause lag far off the early leaders. He made up ground at every call to finish third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. If the race had been run at 1 1/8 miles, a 1/16th of a mile longer, Brody's Cause would probably have won. Dale Roman's and anyone who observed Brody's Call strong finish, knew that Roman's had a quality 2-year-old, soon to be 3, on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Brody's Cause first race back from his Breeders Cup loss would be the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. He would be returning from a 4 1/2-month layoff and racing outside of Kentucky for the first time. Bet down to the favorite at 2-1 for the first time in his career, Brody's Cause was bumped soon after the start. He took up his usual position at the back of the pack. At the half mile pole, he was 12 lengths back of the leader. He never picked up a hoof, finishing 12 lengths back at the wire, beating only 2 horses, in what was beyond a disappointing performance. What had possibly gone wrong for Brody's Cause to finish a well beaten seventh?
Whether it was not handling the quirky Tampa Bay surface, Florida heat and humidity, the lengthy layoff or simply an 'off day', no one knew for certain. Even Romans and his longtime companion Tammy Fox, a former jockey and for several years Romans main exercise rider and integral part of his successful stable, had no answers to Brody's Cause not showing up that afternoon at Tampa.

It was time to put that race behind them and seek redemption four weeks later back in the friendly confines of the state of Kentucky at Keeneland race-course. Brody's Cause would have to show big improvement and at the very least hit the board, to provide his connections with the confidence he was worthy of a start in the Kentucky Derby. They only had to wait 1:50 1/5 seconds to have their answer. Brody's Cause was back to himself with a decisive 1 3/4 length victory against 13 rivals. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, Brody's Cause rallied from far back to split horses in mid-stretch and win with plenty left in the tank. Luis Saez, who was aboard for the first time, asked Brody's Call to begin making his move midway on the far turn. Knifing his way between horses and then easing outside and splitting rivals again in mid-stretch to take the lead, Saez still had enough left to fend off the late run of My Man Sam and Cherry Wine. Brody's Call's victory, which was a huge rebound from his Tampa debacle, should not be underestimated. What's so impressive is that he could sustain such a long rally, while navigating his way through traffic, and still prevail.

Brody's Call enters the Kentucky Derby with renewed confidence and must be considered a major player. Dale Romans is a master at pointing a horse to a major race and winning at generous odds. Brody's Cause will have to take another step forward to win the Derby, but what I expect to see on Saturday is a career best performance stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. However, like many others in this field who are deep closer's, it will come down to a trouble free trip and a well-timed ride. If both happen, Brody's Cause is on a short list of those likeliest to succeed closing from far back.

When posts were drawn, Brody's Call drew 19. With the pacesetter breaking in post 20, it comes down to what type of trip jockey Luis Saez can work out. He will have to take back as was expected, but now Saez must try not to lose too much ground as he attempts to move closer inside to avoid a very wide journey. If Brody's Call had drawn a better post, he would have been my top selection. The most difficult thing for me in races like the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses, when I like a horse that I planned on putting on top who does not get any number of post positions which I was looking for, is having to call a late audible. In this case, I must call the audible.

3rd Selection #13 NYQUIST 3-1 GUTIERREZ M O'NEILL D

Nyquist brings an unblemished record, 7 starts with 7 wins and $3.2 million in earnings, into the Kentucky Derby as the betting favorite. He has won at 5 different distances at 4 different races tracks. Nyquist has won on the lead, stalking up close and even closing from well back of the leaders, as he did in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, after being bumped hard at the start. That victory resulted in his fifth straight victory, earning him an Eclipse Award and the role as the future book favorite for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Can history repeat itself for the trio of owner Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O'Neil and jockey Mario Gutierrez? All three orchestrated the 15-1 upset victory by I'll Have Another in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

Unlike I'll Have Another, whose final Derby prep came in the Santa Anita Derby, Nyquist shipped across country to contest the Florida Derby as his final tune up. The decision was based on the $1-million-dollar bonus his owner would receive as a result of being sold at a 2-year-old sale in Florida.

Nyquist would face off with Mohaymen, who was also undefeated in 5 starts. Mohaymen held a big 'home court' edge. He had spent the winter in south Florida and had 2 stakes wins to his credit at Gulfstream Park as a 3-year-old. Mohaymen had also proven himself at the Florida Derby distance, winning the Remson at Aqueduct in his final start at 2. For these reasons, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5 with Nyquist at 6-5. The odds of the other 8 runners ranged from the third choice going off at 15-1 to the longest price in the field at 180-1. This unusual betting variance in the Florida Derby tells an interesting tale. The obvious is that handicappers and the betting public clearly felt it was a 2 horse race, which it clearly looked like on paper. What the odds also told you was that the opposition was simply overmatched on all handicapping principles. Some were considered so outclassed, that you wondered if they could even win an entry-level Allowance race. One horse was still a maiden. 6 others had only a maiden win to their credit. Fellowship, who was making his 11th start, had won 2 races, a win in his debut at 4 1/2 furlongs and a win around 2-turns last October. To put it mildly, other than Mohaymen and Nyquist, this was one bad Florida Derby field!

As soon as the gate opened for the Florida Derby, you knew right away that Gutierrez was going to be aggressive and ride Nyquist like he was the best horse in the race. The tactics were simple, 'catch me if you can'. It was no free pass for Nyquist on the front end, except that the 2 horses who put pressure on him were the 124-1 maiden and a 136-1 recent maiden claiming winner for a $50,000 tag. Fighting those 2 rivals off to await the challenge of Mohaymen would set the stage for a stretch battle which never materialized. Sometimes there are outcomes which are simply 'head scratchers'. We all knew where Nyquist was positioned turning for home. Now our sights were set squarely on Mohaymen to await his attack. Just as quickly as he began to make his move while racing wide turning for home, it only took a few more strides to realize that Mohaymen would come up empty. He flattened out to finish a well beaten fourth, an inexplicable 8 1/4 lengths back of the Nyquist. Nyquist showed up to the dance. Mohaymen declined the invitation when it was time to respond.

What did the outcome of the Florida Derby tell us? It told us Nyquist is a very good horse and even a deserving favorite, who will be over bet because of his credentials. He defeated an awful field in a race where something had to be amiss with the favorite to have run so poorly. The main track had plenty of moisture and was labeled 'good' from the rains which fell on and off throughout the day. The track had been sealed and then the seal was removed for the Florida Derby after 3 previous stakes races which were run on grass. From the last dirt race run at 4:34 PM, to the start of the Florida Derby which went off at 6:57 PM, a span of 2 hours and 23 minutes, a lot changed with the dirt surface, which had a hand in the final outcome. It was a quirky track that that some horses handled and others did not.

When I look closely at Nyquist's lifetime past performances, I see a horse who faced a west coast based horse named Swipe in 4 of his 5 starts as a 2-year-old. Swipe ran second each time. Swipe returned in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in his 3year-old debut April 16 as the co-favorite and was awful. Nyquist was impressive winning the BC Juvenile, but he did have a relatively trouble free trip. In the San Vincente, which was his first start at 3, he beat a quality horse in Exaggerator as the 1-5 favorite breaking from the rail against only 4 rivals.

For all Nyquist's conquests and the fact that he is battled hardened and the will to win, I still cannot pick him as my top selection. Many people will point out that his pedigree is not suited to 1 1/4 miles. I put little credence in that statement because he does have enough stamina influence on his dam side, and speed and middle distance from his sire Uncle Mo. The Kentucky Derby is such a unique race in that 20 horses will all be running 1 1/4 miles for the first time in their career and may never see that distance again. Nyquist is a very good horse and in the end could develop into a great horse. Nevertheless, as the clear cut betting favorite and a horse who certainly has all the credentials to win the Kentucky Derby, I have enough reasons not to choose him as my top selection. He will be included in many of my exacta and trifecta wagers.

Nyquist draws a very good post in 13, but as the morning-line favorite at 3-1, I cannot pick him to win. It's as simple as that for me.

4th Selection #14 MOHAYMEN 10-1 ALVARADO J MCLAUGHLIN K

Mohaymen took his unblemished record of 5 wins in 5 starts into the Florida Derby. 3 of those victories came as a 2-year-old, including a win in the Remsen at Aqueduct to conclude his juvenile campaign. With Mohaymen on the sidelines, Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion Nyquist was voted 2-year-old horse of the year. A legitimate argument could be made over which horse was the best juvenile colt. If you believed that Mohaymen was the better of the two, the debate would be settled at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby where these two undefeated 3-year-olds would face off in what looked on paper to be a 2 horse race.

In the Florida Derby, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5, with Nyquist at 6-5. The rest of the field was 15-1 and higher. What was billed as a "match race" ended up nothing of the sort. Nyquist proved much the best with a decisive win. Mohaymen could not have been any more disappointing, finishing a well beaten fourth, 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner. The result of the Florida Derby will now have a huge impact on the odds on these two runners when they meet up for part two of their encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If Mohaymen had won the Florida Derby, he would no doubt be the 'clear cut' betting favorite in the Run for the Roses at around 7-2. Nyquist would be in the vicinity of 8-1. A switch in roles and closing odds between these two now changes, with favorite Nyquist going off in the vicinity of 4-1.

Handicappers and the betting public have short memories. Many times too much emphasis is placed on a winning or losing effort. In Mohaymen's case losing by such a lengthy margin and even being out finished by two long shots, who on paper had no right at all to finish in front of him, makes you have to come up with some very sound reasons to draw a line threw his race. After thinking about it long and hard, I am doing just that.

First and foremost, Mohaymen ran well enough in his 5 previous starts to distinguish himself as a top class 3-year-old, especially when compared to many on the Derby trail who are nothing more than good horses with much to prove. In the Florida Derby Mohaymen was asked to run over a very 'quirky' wet track for the first time in his career. He never seemed comfortable over the footing. Mohaymen raced wide throughout on the part of the track which appeared more tiring than the inside paths. He was unable to get any traction to sustain a move he began making approaching the stretch, but then flattened out from the 3/16th pole to the wire. It was also a hot and humid day with a big crowd. Perhaps something was amiss that would only be discovered after he was walked back to the barn and cooled out.

Finding legitimate excuses to discount a race is only one piece of the puzzle. The main piece is what has developed in the days following the race as a horse like Mohaymen prepares for his date with destiny. You look for clues like insightful comments by the connections and, most importantly, how the horse trains leading up to the race. When Mohaymen ran in the Florida Derby, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin was in a rare bad slump. One week earlier, he had fired blanks with all his starters at Meydan, in the Dubai World Cup races. His prized runner, Frosted, from whom he expected big things, came up totally empty. We all have our bad runs and good runs. It's a fact of life and racing is no exception. McLaughlin is a super horseman and time heals all ills. He has been at Churchill supervising the training of Mohaymen since he arrived in mid-April. He wants no stone unturned in his preparation. You want to see your Derby horse work well over the surface. Mohaymen has done just that, working brilliantly under the Twin Spires. McLaughlin has been 'fine tuning' a little bit with the shoeing, adding glue on shoes which seems to improve a lot of horses.

I expect a vastly improved performance by Mohaymen in the Kentucky Derby. He is bred on both his sire and dam side to adapt well to 1 1/4 miles. His best asset is his tactical speed, which will allow jockey 'Junior' Alvarado to settle him in perfect striking position early on and get first run on both the mid pack runners and the deep closer's. Mohaymen has been the favorite in all 6 starts at odds as low as 2-5, but never higher than 9-5, which was in his career debut. In the Kentucky Derby you will be generously rewarded at a price you would never dream of getting before the Florida Derby and possibly never again if Mohaymen redeems himself on Saturday.

Mohaymen drew post 14 which is ideal for his stalking running style. 'Junior' Alvarado should be able to work out a good trip without much ground loss. Now it's up to Mohaymen to show that his last race was an aberration and he is up to the task winning at 1 1/4 miles.

5th Selection # 2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20-1 QUINONEZ L VON HEMEL D

This 3-year-old gelding is a mirror image of several deep closers in this year's Kentucky Derby field. Like those horses, Suddenbreakingnews has been a gem of consistency, winning 3 races, twice in stakes and placed 4 times in 8 career starts. His lone off the board finish was when he ran 5th as the 5-2 favorite breaking from post 14. Only once has he shown any early speed and that was in his maiden win setting a pressured moderate pace going a mile at Remington Park. It's very unusual to see a horse show speed in just 1 race, but in every other start flounder towards the back of the pack before unleashing a late rally.

Mid-west based and longtime horseman Donnie Von Hemel, as expected, took the Arkansas route with Sunddenbreakingnews. To illustrate how far back he is positioned after the first 1/2 mile, just look at the number of lengths he lags behind the leader in his last 3 starts. In the Southwest he was last of 14 runners, 12 lengths back. In the Rebel he was in 13th place, 10 lengths back and in the Arkansas Derby he raced in 9th position, also 10 lengths back of the pacesetter.

Over a 'good' track in the Southwest, Suddenbreakingnews rallied in the stretch like he was shot from a cannon to win by 2 3/4 lengths. Then came the Rebel, his only off the board finish. Last time out in the Arkansas Derby, his regular rider Luis Quinonez made the last move, swinging out widest into the stretch. He rallied to get the place money, while set up perfectly by the fast fractions, collapsing speed and a perfectly timed ride.

There is no reason to expect that Suddenbreakingnews will not be positioned towards the back of the pack entering the backstretch in the Kentucky Derby, some 15-20 lengths off the early leaders. He has the benefit of a rider who knows him well, having ridden the 3-year-old in all 8 starts. Like the other deep closers in the field, any success he will have will be directly correlated to the amount of trouble he can avoid. He should get the right pace set up to close into, so the question then becomes if he does have a trouble free trip, is he good enough to win.

Suddenbreakingnews is bred to on both his sire and dam side to have no trouble handling the Derby distance. Even though he has only raced at Oaklawn and at Remington, switching to Churchill should not be an issue. Von Homel has trained over 70 stakes winners in his career with Evansville Slew, Custer, Leave a Legacy, Explosive Girl and Bien Nicole among his notable stars. Even though Suddenbreakingnews has been successful over a dry track, I feel he may be better racing on a wet surface. I would not be shocked if he won the Derby at big odds, especially how good he has been training at Churchill Downs. It is more likely Suddenbreakingnews ceiling is an 'on the board finish' if everything falls just right for horse and rider. This is a huge bomb who must be included in some of your wagers.

6th Selection # 5 GUN RUNNER 10-1 GEROUX F ASMUSSEN S

With the lone exception of a determined fourth place finish in his lone start over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at Churchill last November, Gun Runner is undefeated in 4 starts over a dry surface. He broke his maiden going a 1-turn mile at Churchill in his career debut. The fact that Gun Runner has run well over the track is a feather in his cap.

Trainer Steve Asmussen took the Louisiana route to the Kentucky Derby with Gun Runner. The son of Candy Ride was a game winner in the Grade 2 Risen Star in his 3-year old debut off an 84-day layoff. 35 days later Gun Runner scored a decisive victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. In both those races, he was ridden by Florent Geroux, who will be back aboard for the Derby.

I have mixed feeling concerning Gun Runner's ability to win the Kentucky Derby. In his favor is his versatility. In a race which features a lot of deep closer's and several others who will be positioned well off the early leaders entering the backstretch, Gun Runner has shown he can be placed in perfect striking position early on allowing Geroux to get first run on the closer's. His will to win and his experience over the Churchill dirt surface has been documented. Gun Runner is also bred for distance. His dam won 5 of her 6 races going long. What concerns me is the quality of competition he defeated as a 2-year-old and in both starts this year.

The 3-year- olds at Fair Grounds were no better than average. In the Louisiana Derby, Gun Runner could not have fallen into a better trip and pace scenario. The fractions he stalked were at best moderate. He easily took command from a very tired pacesetter turning for home and quickly opened up a clear lead. In mid-stretch, Gun Runner drifted towards the rail racing a bit erratically and then switched to his wrong lead. In most instances I would say that he was getting leg weary, which does not bode well on the first Saturday in May when asked to run an additional 1/8th of a mile. You can also look at this erratic behavior another way. This was the first time Gun Runner had opened up such a lengthy lead on his closest pursuer in mid-stretch. He could have just been 'playing around' looking for some competition to challenge him. Gun Runner's margin of victory was 4 1/2 lengths. If rival Mo Tom would not have checked sharply in the midst of his closing rally in mid-stretch, Gun Runner would have probably still won, but it would have been a much closer finish.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has won many prestigious Grade 1 races, but the closest he has come to winning the Kentucky Derby was a third place finish with Curlin in 2007. Gun Runner's owner Verne Winchell has had 3 starters in the Kentucky Derby. Classic Go Go was his closest finisher when he ran fourth in 1981. In 1991 his Sea Cadet, known as the 'Tailless Wonder', finished eighth. Winchell's last starter was Valiant Nature who finished thirteenth in 1994. Gun Runner provides both Asmussen and Verne Winchell their best chance to win their first Kentucky Derby.

7th Selection #15 OUTWORK 15-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T

Winning a horse race is no easy task, and the degree of difficulty in winning the Kentucky Derby is multiplied many times over. Trainer Todd Pletcher enters 2 runners this year, and one cannot adequately analyze his Derby entrants without examining his overall Derby record. Pletcher has a total of 43 Kentucky Derby runners through 2015. To summarize a Washington Post article penned last year by handicapper Andy Beyer: Pletcher has had but a single winner, Super Saver, from 43 Derby starters. Fully 29 of the 43 have finished 9th or worse. It is near mind boggling that a trainer who owns high percentage stats in nearly every category of training horses has been so abysmal in the Derby, given he trains nothing but the best well-bred runners. In truth, Todd Pletcher has had significantly more "at bats" in the Derby than most trainers. Since he usually has the horse flesh, that 1/43 record must come down to both racing luck and method of preparation for this unique race. Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby by two horses, Destin and Outwork. Of particular interest this year, in the context of his overall record, is the different prep path for each of his 44th and 45th Derby starters.

Destin has the more versatile running style as he has shown the ability to stalk, attack and finish. Outwork is a bit more forwardly placed early on. In 4 career starts, the farthest back he has been from the lead is a half-length after a 1/4 mile and a head off the lead after a 1/2 mile. Twice Outwork took command right from the start.
After breaking his maiden going 4 1/2 f in his debut in April 2015, Outwork was laid up until resurfacing Feb 13 at Tampa Bay Downs stretching out to 6f. He easily won his return after fighting off a stiff challenge into the stretch. Outwork's victory set him up nicely to try to rack up some Derby qualifying points in the Tampa Bay Derby. He would face off with Destin, a strong 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher. Outwork set the pace right from the start with his stable-mate in close pursuit. These 2 would battle tooth and nail down the stretch with Destin prevailing by a length at the wire. Unlike Destin, who has trained up to the Kentucky Derby as a result of earning enough points to safely insure a start, Outwork would have to travel to New York for the Wood Memorial, needing at least a second place finish to get him into the field.

In the Wood, Outwork would be confronted by a wet track for the first time and pick up 7 Lbs. traveling 1 1/8 miles. Jockey John Velazquez, who had been aboard Outwork for all three previous starts, was back on. Velazquez wasted no time hustling the son of Uncle Mo to put pressure on the pacesetter Matt King Coal. He raced just a head back of that rival until edging clear at the top of the stretch. Outwork was able to fend off the closers late, in particular the maiden and 81-1 shot Trojan Nation, who was gaining on him in the final yards, just running out of ground to finish a head short of a monumental upset. Considering the track conditions, a new distance and racing right on on top of a fast pace, Outwork gutted out a very impressive victory, proving he is more than worthy of starting berth in the Kentucky Derby.

My main concern for Outwork is his running style. He has not yet shown that he can rate a few lengths behind a pacesetter, attack and finish. It must be assumed that his best game is racing on the lead or sitting right off of it. With the fleet footed Danzig Candy expected to establish the front end early with a good break from the gate, Velazquez has no choice but to take up a tracking position. If he uses him early not to allow Danzig Candy a free ride on the lead, both runners will be cooked at the top of the stretch. If Velazquez takes back, he will have to make a middle move, something that Outwork has never done before.

Outwork has been training beautifully since arriving at Churchill Downs. As far as size goes, he is the biggest 3-year-old in the field. There is no doubt in my mind that Outwork will handle the Derby distance just fine. If Velazquez can get him to relax early, Outwork will get first run on many of his rivals, which could prove to be a huge tactical advantage. Despite Pletcher's abysmal record in the Kentucky Derby, Outwork must be respected as win candidate for high profile owner Mike Repole.

8th Selection #11 EXAGGERATOR 8-1 DESORMEAUX K DESORMEAUX J

Exaggerator is one of more experienced and accomplished horses in the field. All four wins have come at four different race tracks and at four different distances. As a 2-year-old, his first two victories came in sprints last summer. The first was his maiden win at Del Mar. Exaggerator then shipped east and won a Grade 2 stake at Saratoga. He concluded his juvenile campaign with a stakes victory at Delta Downs, earning him 60 % or $600,000 of the $1-million-dollar purse.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux elected to take the Santa Anita route to the Kentucky Derby, mapping out a three race campaign to have Exaggerator in peak form the first Saturday in May. He returned from an eighty six day layoff in the San Vincente at 7f. Showing speed from the start, Exaggerator chased quick fractions outside of Nyquist, but was unable to make up any ground on that rival through the stretch, finishing a very determined second. 26 days later in the San Felipe, stretching back out to two turns, Exaggerator was forced out at the start, quickly finding himself last of six runners. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, riding for his brother, made a huge middle move into second with dead aim on pacesetter and eventual winner Danzig Candy midway on the far turn. Exaggerator fought hard through the stretch to cut into the pacesetter's lead, but came up short and had to settle for third.

With two sharp races off the layoff under his belt, Exaggerator was primed for a big effort in the Santa Anita Derby. It rarely rains in southern California in the spring and for the most part, dry weather can be an everyday occurrence for weeks on end. When the track comes up sloppy, it creates havoc in predicting the outcome of races, because most of the horses rarely run on sloppy tracks nor do they train over it. There was an unsettling weather pattern in southern California the week leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. That Saturday, the track was a quagmire throughout the 12 race card. The lukewarm favorite was Mor Spirit, who had run second in the his only start over a wet track at Churchill. 26-1 Uncle Lino who ran third, had one race in the slop at 5f, where he was beaten a neck. The 8-5 second choice in the betting Danzig Candy, had never run on wet track. Only one horse in the field, Exaggerator had a win and a second place finish on wet tracks, both in graded stakes. The rest of the field had no wet track experience.

Once the gate opened for the Santa Anita Derby, Danzing Candy, who was a bit fractious loading, ran off to a big lead into the first turn. Jockey Mike Smith was unable to throttle him down, resulting in a blistering pace which would take its toll on Danzing Candy in mid-stretch. The beneficiary of the pace meltdown was Exaggerator. His trainer's original plan was to stay close to the pacesetter early because Desormeaux felt that on wet tracks you are compromised if you have to close from far back. His plans were scrapped when Danzing Candy bottomed out the field early and Kent Desormeaux wisely elected to settle Exaggerator and make one late run. The last move was the winning move, as Exaggerator just inhaled the front runner at the top of the stretch with a perfectly timed rally, and drew off to an easy 6 1/4 length win. He could not have gotten a better pace set up, ride and trip over a wet surface he simply glides over.

Exaggerator's best trait is his versatility. He has proven he can win from on the lead, stalking or closing from off the pace. In the Kentucky Derby, he figures to be rating in mid pack before making his customary middle move. Unlike in the Santa Anita Derby when everything possible fell his way, this scenario is not likely to occur in a twenty horse field going 1 1/4 miles.

Exaggerator gets his stamina from his sire Curlin, but his dam line is slanted more towards sprint and middle distances. He has faced Nyquist three times and has lost all three. It is difficult for me to envision him turning the tables on that rival at the Derby distance, especially on a fast track. Exaggerator is a horse I will only use underneath in my exacta and trifecta wagers.

9th Selection # 3 CREATOR 10-1 SANTANA, JR. R ASMUSSEN S

It took Creator six starts before he broke his maiden. It was not for lack of quality or being entered in difficult spots that prevented this well bred son of top sire Tapit from winning.

For starters, Creator has no early speed, which compromises his chances. He falls victim to the pace scenario and having his rider navigate him through traffic, especially in large field sizes which Creator has faced in most of his starts. Even his past performance trouble lines will point this out with such notations as 'wide', 'shuffled back', 'bumped', 'waited' and 'thru traffic'. In the Kentucky Derby with 20 starters, it is likely another trouble line comment will be added to this list.

When Creator finally put it together in one of few races where the only comment from the chart caller was 'wide', he sustained a powerful and very impressive run through the stretch as if shot from a cannon to win by 7 1/4 lengths on February 27 making his first start at Oaklawn Park. In a bold move by newly inducted Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Creator was entered in the Rebel Stakes. Once again Creator fell back into another zip code early on. He put in his customary late run, finishing third. The only way Creator and his high profile owners WinStar Farm would be represented in the Kentucky Derby with Creator was a victory and at minimum as second place finish 4 weeks later in the Arkansas Derby. Under a picture perfect ride by Oaklawn Park's leading rider Santana, Creator rallied through traffic from the back of the pack to split horses late, springing an 11-1 upset victory and earning him a date with destiny.

Like several others in the Derby field, Creator will find himself many lengths off the early leaders passing the Twin Spires for the first time. And like his fellow one-run deep closers, Creator will put in his customary late rally. Everything must fall into place for him to loom a danger in the latter stages of the race.
Creator is a talented 3-year-old whose human connections must be respected as much as his equine ability. Nevertheless, Creator is not the type of horse I could select on top, because he is would be more a 'wish and a prayer' selection that the seas will part and he will plow on through to victory. It is more likely that Creator stands a much better chance to pick up the pieces in deep stretch and land a sliver of the pie.

10th Selection # 4 MO TOM 20-1 LANERIE C AMOSS T

If there is one horse on Saturday who will have a legion of racing fans rooting for him based on the horrific trips he experienced on the road to the Kentucky Derby, it is Mo Tom.

As a 2-year-old Mo Tom showed steady improvement in all 4 starts, each in Kentucky at 3 different tracks. His last 2 starts in 2015 resulted in a stakes victory at Churchill Downs stretching out to a mile. Mo Tom concluded his juvenile campaign with a third place finish over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at 2 turns under the Twin Spires.
High percentage winning trainer Tom Amoss elected to take the Louisiana road to the Derby at the Fair Grounds with their 3 race series consisting first of the La Comte, which Mo Tom passed with flying colors. Despite hitting the gate at the break, he recovered to sustain a strong closing run to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths.

No one could envision what would occur in Mo Tom's next 2 starts. In the Risen Star, as his jockey Corey Lanerie was making a bold move along the rail in mid-stretch to loom a danger to blow on by the leaders, the hole quickly closed up, forcing Mo Tom to check sharply. He lost all momentum but showed enough fight to recover and make another run in the closing yards. But the door had already closed on his likely victory.

Mo Tom would seek redemption 5 weeks later in the Louisiana Derby. As you would have expected with anyone who had observed his bad fortune during the stretch run of the Risen Star, the son of Uncle Mo was bet down to the 2-1 favorite. And once again, backers of Mo Tom would have to suffer through a second stretch debacle costing him another possible victory. This time the pain would last even longer. Once again Mo Tom was gathering a full head of steam, picking up horses one-byone from the back of the pack. Nearly at the same spot in mid-stretch as in the Risen Star, Mo Tom and Lanerie were forced to check sharply, only this time his traffic troubles would last for 1/16th of mile. He never even had a chance to fully recover and get himself back into stride to start a second run at the leaders. Mo Tom had to settle for fourth money, with his connections muttering in disgust 'what could have been'.
With the dust having cleared in the ensuing weeks and the connections of Mo Tom forgiving his rider for those 2 troubled trips, they are all hoping for a turn of fortunes in the Kentucky Derby. As one of the many deep closers in the field, it will be up to the Racing Gods to determine the fate of horses like Mo Tom.

If everything falls in place for Mo Tom and Lanerie, it now becomes an issue if he is good enough to win the Derby stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. I feel that a victory is probably not in the cards, even if there is not a straw in Mo Tom's path, which is unlikely. He is a one-run closer that is not very athletic and nimble enough to escape trouble very easily as we have observed and has distance limitations beyond 1 1/8 miles. It is my opinion that the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby featured the lesser quality 3 year olds. Mo Tom is not likely to win, but if everything falls his way, he could possibly hit the board.

11th Selection #10 WHITMORE 20-1 ESPINOZA V MOQUETT R

Whitmore is one of 5 horses in the Derby field who has won over the Churchill Downs main track. In his debut last November, the 3-year-old gelding broke slowly and then rushed up to chase fast fractions. He easily took command at the top of the stretch, drawing clear to a 7 1/4 length win at 15-1.

In his first 2 starts as a juvenile, Whitmore did not wear blinkers. Blinkers were added for his third start on Jan 16 cutting back to a sprint. The result was a decisive victory. What is interesting is in his next 3 starts back at 2 turns, Whitmore has not shown any early speed, quickly finding himself far back of the leaders. Was this by design, or simply a lack of interest by Whitmore in the early proceedings?

Since his trainer Ron Moquett is based in the midwest, it was logical that Whitmore's road to the Derby would go through Oaklawn Park. He would rally from far back to get second money in both the Southwest and Rebel, each run at 1 1/16 miles. In the Arkansas Derby, stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile, Whitmore and his rider Irad Ortiz were once again content to lag far off the early leaders after racing in tight between horses and checking soon after the start. The fractions set by the pacesetter were quick, resulting in a well spread out field of 12. Ortiz was able to get Whitmore to relax a couple paths off the rail on the backstretch. Approaching the far turn, Ortiz pushed on the gas and Whitmore responded instantly to begin his customary late run. Turning for home Whitmore was fanned out very wide while full of run. In mid-stretch, he ran out of gas and was unable to keep pace with winner Creator, who blew on by. Nearing the wire, Whitmore could not hold off Suddenbreakingnews, who had made the last move to get the place.

Whitmore clearly has talent, but he also can be his own worst enemy. He has developed traits which usually raise their ugly heads in a 20 horse field he will encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If you look at his trouble lines to the far right of his Past Performances, you will see notations in all 6 of his starts such as 'Broke slow, veered out in stretch', 'Pinched start', 'Middle moved', 'Steadied', 'Bobbled', 'Nothing left'. Whitmore will need everything to fall his way in the Derby and not a straw in his path when he begins his late run from the back of the pack. Even if this happens, he does not give me the impression of being able to sustain his run at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Whitmore's ceiling is an 'on the board' finish and nothing more.

12th Selection #17 MOR SPIRIT 12-1 STEVENS G BAFFERT B

When you see any horse entered in the Kentucky Derby trained by Bob Baffert, it would be folly to dismiss his chances. Since 1996, Baffert Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a mind-boggling 4 times. He won back-to-back Derbies with Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998. 4 years later Baffert scored with War Emblem. Last year American Pharoah became the first American Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 and the twelve in history. In contrast to a Derby trainer like Todd Pletcher (1/43 with 29 runners finishing ninth or worse). Even in defeat, Baffert-trained Derby runners have hit the board 5 times. In the last 20 years', Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby entrants have either won or hit the board 9 times or 45 % of the time. Simply amazing.

Mor Spirit will be Bob Baffert's lone runner in this year's Kentucky Derby. In 7 starts, he has won 3 races including 2 stakes and 4 second place finishes. 5 of those races came at his home base at Santa Anita with 1 win at Los Alamitos. The only time he left southern California, Mor Spirit shipped to Kentucky where he ran a very good second in a Grade 2 stake as a 2-yearold at Churchill Downs.

There is no denying that Mor Spirit has quality and is very consistent. At times he is a bit head strong early in his races, as he demonstrated when second to Danzig Candy in the San Felipe. This characteristic was on display even in his workout April 26, when he blasted away under regular rider Gary Stevens to set fast fractions, with his first 3 furlongs run in 33.93 while racing in company. However, even when Mor Spirit has settled nicely in his races, when he begins his rally, he is one-paced. This was illustrated in all 3 of his victories and last time out in the Santa Anita Derby, when he finished 6 1/4 lengths behind Exagerrator over a sloppy track.
The key to his success in the Kentucky Derby will come down to Stevens being able to get him to relax early and time his move perfectly to avoid any trouble along the way. This could be a lot to ask in a 20 horse field stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. If it was any other trainer than Bob Baffert calling the shots, I would consider Mor Spirit as one of several in this field who can hit the board but not win. With Gary Stevens riding, Baffert's tremendous record in the Kentucky Derby and a horse who will get first run on the deep closer's, Mor Spirit has to be respected.

13th Selection # 9 DESTIN 15-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T

Trainer Todd Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby with two lightly raced and well-bred colts who both appear on the improve. Destin and Outwork faced off against one another on March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby, where Destin prevailed over his barn-mate by one length. His determined victory would serve as his final Derby prep. Destin has been trained up to the Derby off a 56-day layoff after having run 4 straight races about a month apart. The break was well deserved, especially for a 3year-old who has made forward moves in his last 3 starts with the addition of blinkers.

Destin is a grey son of the very good distance producing sire Giant's Causeway, out of a dam who won 4 route races totaling $847,000 in earnings, including a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. He is a full brother to $1-million-dollar earner Creative Cause, winner of 4 distance races, including the Norfolk and Best Pal as a 2-year-old and the San Felipe as a 3-year old. Creative Cause also placed in the Santa Anita Derby, skipped the Kentucky Derby and then went on to run third in the Preakness. Despite having not run further than 1 1/16 miles, Destin clearly has the pedigree to perform well at 1 1/4 miles. He has very good tactical speed to position himself in good striking position entering the backstretch, which minimizes the chances of his rider navigating through traffic and get first run on the deep closers. The danger is if the pace is quick and he is too close to it. The ability to get Destin to relax the first mile is imperative, so he has enough punch in the stretch.

Several of his rivals exit final prep races in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. All five races were run at 1 1/8 miles. Only the Florida Derby was run 36 days out from the Kentucky Derby. The other four were 28 days out. Destin must overcome his longer layoff and the added distance over a new racing surface toting more weight than he has ever carried before. In Destin's favor is that the route to the Kentucky Derby through Tampa Bay Downs has been fruitful in recent years. Todd Pletcher has started a lot of horses in the 'Run for the Roses'. Super Saver is Pletcher's only Kentucky Derby winner, who had his final prep race in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing third. Street Sense parlayed a win in the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby with a victory in the Kentucky Derby. Musket Man ran third at huge odds in the 2009 Kentucky Derby after winning the Tampa Bay Derby. The reason for such success is that the racing surface at Tampa is deep and tiring, which provides horses plenty of 'bottom' and stamina when they ship to other tracks which are harder and quicker racing surfaces. Trainers and owners love to race there during the winter months, not for the paltry purses they offer, but for their next stop, where Tampa shippers more than make up for lost income.

This year's Kentucky Derby has more contenders than pretenders. Several Derby starters do their best running from far off the pace, which requires a perfectly timed ride and a traffic free trip to have any chance of winning. Destin is clearly on the contender side of the ledger. His tactical speed and top rider Javier Castellano aboard, will help Destin get first run on the closers and a better chance to avoid trouble. Despite the positives, there comes some negatives, such as his layoff and Todd Pletcher's dismal record with his Kentucky Derby starters.

14th Selection #18 MAJESTO 30-1 JARAMILLO E DELGADO G

This $300,000 yearling purchase was cut out to be a quality runner and bred to relish a distance of ground the day he was conceived. He is a half-brother to Overanalyze, winner of the 2012 Remsen as a 2-year-old and the Arkansas Derby at 3.

It took 5 starts for Majesto to finally break his maiden, but that confidence boost victory helped propel him to a career best performance in the Florida Derby. Even though Majesto was no threat to Nyquist, he sustained a strong rally to get the place money at 21-1. He did benefit by getting a beautiful ground saving trip by top rider Castellano, while racing on the best part of the track.

Majesto loses Castellano in the Derby and it's unlikely he will get the same dream inside trip. Nevertheless, I would not dismiss his chances to nibble at a piece of the purse at huge odds. Majesto has yet to reach his ceiling and clearly the 'light bulb' went off in his maiden win. He is a not a dead stone closer as many in the field are, yet he won't race close to the early leaders entering the backstretch. Majesto is the type of horse who can just clunk along when others are tiring. You know he will handle the Derby distance well. If you watched his gallop out past the wire in the Florida Derby, you could see that there was plenty left in the tank.

15th Selection #20 DANZING CANDY 15-1 SMITH M SISE, JR. C

If you want to predict who the pacesetter will be in this year's Kentucky Derby, you need to look no further than Danzing Candy. With the exception of his debut last November at Del Mar when he broke awkwardly, quickly finding himself last of twelve runners and seventh after the first call, in 4 subsequent starts Danzing Candy has not been headed after the first quarter mile. In each race, the distances got longer, which only made it easier for Danzing Candy to open up bigger margins between himself and the rest of the field after a half mile had been run. In 3 of those races, including the San Felipe, Danzing Candy would go wire-to-wire.
His toughest test to date came last time out in the Santa Anita Derby where his stamina would be tested for the first time at 1 1/8 miles, as well as his ability to handle a sloppy track, conditions he had neither raced on nor in all likelihood trained over.

Danzing Candy's fate in the Santa Anita Derby was sealed after running four furlongs in a blistering :45 1/5. Mike Smith was not able to control his runaway speed with six furlongs in 1:10 flat. At that point Exaggerator just swooped on by a very tired horse. Smith did not abuse Danzing Candy as he steadily dropped back through the stretch.
Danzing Candy will not have to run over sloppy conditions in the Kentucky Derby which is a good thing. The bad news is that he will probably have to go faster than par for the first 6 furlongs of the race, which has been run in 1:11 (2003-2015). He will likely face intense pressure on the far turn, resulting in his inability to withstand the onslaught of horses closing from behind. Danzing Candy does not have the breeding, nor does he give me the impression that he is suited to 1 1/4 miles the first Saturday in May.

16th Selection #16 SHAGAF 20-1 ROSARIO J BROWN C

Shagaf makes his fifth career start in the Kentucky Derby after being soundly defeated April 9 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The Wood would be the fourth straight time that he would be sent off as the post time favorite following 3 impressive victories, twice in New York and his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park.

It was not surprising that Shagaf's connections would begin his career going a mile. From all this year's Kentucky Derby entrants, Shagaf is one the best bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance. His dam Muhaaware is a half-sister to Eldaafer, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon at 1 1/2 miles. The previous year, Eldaafer won the Brooklyn BC Handicap at the same distance at Belmont Park. There are several other long-winded and quality performers throughout the family. Ironically, Eldaafar's sire was A. P. Indy, the same sire as Shagaf's father Benardini, both who won prestigious Grade 1 stakes going a distance of ground.

Shagaf could not have been more impressive winning his first start by 6 lengths. He shipped to Gulfstream for his 3-year-old debut at the same 2-turn mile. Similar to his debut win, Shagaf stalked early and drew clear at the top of the stretch, on his way to a decisive victory. Trainer Chad Brown shipped him back north for the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and stretched Shagaf out to 2-turns for the first time on the inner dirt track. He had to work harder to get the win, but did so with a perfect ride and trip.

His final Derby prep would come 35 days later in the Wood Memorial. Shagaf would be facing some new shooters, but more importantly a sealed sloppy track for the first time while stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile and picking up 7 Lbs. After racing up close to the leaders in the early stages of each of his prior 3 starts, Shagaf and jockey Irad Ortiz, who had ridden him each time, found themselves towards the rear of the field, 11 lengths back into the clubhouse turn. Shagaf made up ground to loom dangerously for a brief moment at the top of the stretch, but flattened out when it counted.

One might say that the muddy surface, which he clearly did not like, compromised his chances. But Shagaf is bred well to handle wet tracks and he got quick fractions to close into. I feel that the Wood Memorial probably exposed him as a 3-year-old who does not yet possess the quality of several others in the Kentucky Derby field. Top rider Irad Ortiz probably feels the same way. Ortiz has elected to jump off Shagaf in favor of another Chad Brown entrant My Man Sam in the Kentucky Derby, who he had ridden in his first 3 starts. Ortiz chose instead to ride Shagaf in the Wood, rather than My Man Same the same day at Keeneland in the Blue Grass. This is a jockey switch, which means something. Joel Rosario, who had been sidelined because of an injury and but resumed riding 1 week ago, will have the mount aboard Shagaf in the Derby.

Expect Shagaf to return to stalking tactics with a clean break. Rosario will go after front running Danzig Candy on the far turn, but will have to work hard to try to go by. This middle move is likely to take its toll on Shagaf in the stretch.

17th Selection # 1 TROJAN NATION 50-1 GRYDER A GALLAGHER P

Obviously the connections of this 3-year-old son of Street Cry knew something more than I did and everyone else looking over his past performances when he arrived at Aqueduct from Santa Anita for the Wood Memorial. If I am grasping at straws, you could say that his bullet 5f workout, the best of 59, just 6 days before the Wood, was a tip off to them that a huge form reversal was upcoming. He had never worked that fast in the past. Even so, there was absolutely no way you could consider Trojan Nation a contender, even in an 8 horse field. He was winless in 5 starts and had never even run second. In 3 races Trojan Nation had run third, finishing 1 3/4, 3 3/4 and 9 lengths back of the winner, all in Maiden Special Weight races.

Would anyone who owned a horse with his resume go to the expense of flying him across country? I really doubt it, but trainer Patrick Gallagher and Trojan Nation's owners had the courage to do it. For their confidence in this colt, they fell a head short of one of the greatest upsets 'on the road to the Kentucky Derby'. One more jump and Trojan Nation would have lit up the board to the tune of 81-1 or a mutual payoff of $165.00 for every $2.00 wagered. Even though he did not win, Trojan Nation earned enough qualifying points to earn a spot in the Derby field.

How could this monumental turnaround in fortunes occur? 3 factors obviously came into play and each are intertwined. This was the first time Trojan Nation had raced over a wet track listed as 'muddy'. He obviously handled the footing very well. He was allowed to drop back into another zip code by his New York based rider Aaron Gryder. As a result of the fast pace, Trojan Nation settled in last place, 17 lengths back of the leaders while taken to the rail to save valuable ground. With the ensuing speed duel developing around the far turn, and horses making middle moves forcing some to suffer wide trips, Gryder was content to let each horse do the dirty work and just ride the fence hoping to pick off tired horses in the stretch. The tactics nearly worked out, but unfortunately the last horse standing was the winner Outwork, who amazingly held on as well as he did setting a pressured fast pace from start to finish of the 1 1/8-mile race. Trojan Nation even experienced some trouble when in tight and brushed inside the 1/8th pole.

Going forward into the Kentucky Derby, what can we expect from Trojan Nation back on a dry surface? A wet track can truly be an equalizer as some horses handle the going fine and others clearly prefer dry footing. It is very difficult for me to endorse a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. Like many others in the Derby, Trojan Nation is a deep closer who will need all the breaks to fall his way. I'm still not convinced, off a single huge effort, that Trojan Nation has developed into a horse who is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby, or even hitting the board.

18th Selection # 8 LANI 30-1 TAKE Y MATSUNAGA M

It is difficult to properly assess the quality of competition Lani faced and defeated in Japan and last time out when he was victorious in the U A E Derby at Meydon on the Dubai World Cup undercard. Equally difficult and just as important are the effects of all the frequent flyer miles he has accumulated traveling from Japan to Dubai and then to the US in less than 2 months.

Lani is a monster of a colt in terms of size, so I am presuming the travel is not an issue. The 3-year-old grey is one of the bestbred runners in the field. Lani was sired by Tapit, the top stallion in the US, out of a dam who won $3.5 million. He is a halfbrother to Amour Biller, winner of $1.5 million in Japan and victor of 5 stakes races, all going a distance of ground.

Lani concluded his juvenile campaign with 2 straight wins in Japan for top Japanese trainer Mikio Matsunaga, who I would favorably compare to Chad Brown in the US. Both are young horsemen on the brink of stardom. Even in those 2 victories, as well as in each of his 3 prior starts, Lani showed a lack of interest early, as if he was just enjoying goofing around a bit until set down by his rider. Once again in the U A E Derby, Lani broke awkwardly and took his time to settle into his stride which on camera is not very fluid, but powerful, hitting the ground very hard. He quickly made a huge brush to go from last to second while racing well out on the track. In the stretch, Lani dropped back a bit as if beaten, but he found another gear, grinding down the leaders and out finishing the betting favorite Polar River in the shadow of the wire.

Bad habits raise their ugly head in a twenty horse Kentucky Derby field amidst the massive Churchill Downs crowd. Lani has raced in field sizes up to 16 horses twice, so that is not the concern. The issues are his lethargic behavior in the early part of his races and the traffic he is likely to encounter when he does make his move. Even though Lani's rider Take has experience in the US, the Derby is a whole different ball game. I have watched Lani move over the Churchill dirt surface in morning works and long distance gallops since arriving and do not like what I am seeing. Lani pounds the ground too hard and he just doesn't seem very comfortable over it. There are too many obstacles Lani must overcome for me to consider him a contender.

_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310941 - 05/07/16 02:12 AM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Wizard Continued

19th Selection # 7 OSCAR NOMINATED 50-1 LEPAROUX J MAKER M

Owner Ken Ramsey, who has helped carry the torch for enthusiasm and sportsmanship in the current climate of the game, struck some gold when he claimed Oscar Nominated for $75,000 last October at Belmont. Ramsey could not pass up a grass bred distance horse sired by his very own mainstay and prolific sire Kitten's Joy, who was an outstanding race horse in his own right, but has been the anchor for his breeding business and a yearly annuity.

Once Oscar Nominated was dropped in for the tag, Ramsey did not hesitate to lay down the cash. His astute purchase is reaping him huge dividends. If the colt can pull off a monster upset victory in the Kentucky Derby, Oscar Nominated would go down as the greatest claim since Stymie, who was purchased for $1500 by the legendary trainer Hirsch Jacobs in 1943. Stymie went on to win 35 races for Jacob's, including 20 stakes victories, many graded and nearly $1 million in earnings.

In 4 starts for Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker, Oscar Nominated has run second twice, beaten a head and a neck, and then won his last 2 races, capped off by the neck victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on April 2. The obstacle that Oscar Nominated will have to overcome, and it cannot be minimized in any way, is that in 7 starts, 6 have been run on turf and last time out over Polytrack.

5 years ago Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby with a similar profile. He had never run on dirt prior to the Derby. That year, I ended up making Animal Kingdom my top selection when he upset the field at 25-1 in a very similar wide open affair. There is a significant difference this year. I had discovered through reliable sources, and later confirmed, that Animal Kingdom had worked very well on dirt training in preparation for his career debut. Even though he had run several races before making his first start on dirt, the fact that he handled it very well and hardly anyone knew it, was the main reason I decided to take a chance selecting him. In the case of Oscar Nominated, he has worked over dirt several times. If you go back to his workouts in February and March in the Past Performances, you can even see 4 listed workouts on dirt at the Fair Grounds. They are respectable, but they also don't provide you any strong indicators that dirt will be a surface he will feel at home over. This has also been confirmed in his works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.

Oscar Nominated is clearly improving and his versatile running style is his greatest asset. But the field he will be facing Saturday is a far different animal to the much weaker competition he has been meeting on his upward trajectory. Add in the surface switch to dirt for the first time and what you have is a horse that is difficult to consider a Kentucky Derby winner or for that matter hitting the board. Were he to win, Oscar Nominated, would not only win a piece of racing's version of Hollywood's Oscar, but possibly position himself right for a spot next to Stymie in Racing's Hall of Fame on Union Avenue directly across the street from Saratoga Race Course.

20th Selection #12 TOM'S READY 30-1 HERNANDEZ, JR. B STEWART D

Tom's Ready is one of the most experienced horses in the Kentucky Derby field with 9 starts. Only Fellowship has run more races with 11 and Exaggerator next in line with the same 9 career outings. He will be huge odds in the Derby and deservedly so.

Tom's Ready lone victory was his maiden win at 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs. It was the only time he raced on the lead from the start going wire-to-wire setting a moderate pace while adding blinkers for the first time. He has started 6 times since then, with 4 second place finishes.

Trainer Dallas Stewart took the Louisiana route to the Derby with Tom's Ready with starts in the Le Comte, Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. In 2 of those stakes, he rallied for second, but was no threat to Mo Tom and Gun Runner, 2 rivals he will be facing again Saturday. Tom's Ready has a multitude of trouble lines in his Past Performances, which does not bode well for him in a 20 horse field. It is highly unlikely to imagine that Tom's Ready's first win going 2 turns will come in the Derby at 1 1/4 miles. To think he will even hit the board is a stretch.

Wagering Strategy

* Win & Place bet on (6) MY MAN SAM
* Exacta box (2) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, (6) MY MAN SAM, (13) NYQUIST, (14) MOHAYMEN & (19) BRODY'S CALL = $40 for a $2 wager
* Exacta box 6-13-14-19 = $24 for a $2 wager
* Trifecta 6-13-14-19 over 2-6-13-14-19 over 2-3-4-5-6-9-10-11-13-14-15-17-18-19-20 = $104 for a $0.50 wager
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310942 - 05/07/16 02:27 AM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
Originally Posted By: FREAK
Nyquist an easy winner in a runaway.

Mohaymen finished 4th whild the possible upset horse Fellowship finished 3rd.

Nyquist will be your KY Derby favorite and well deserved.


The above was my comments that you can find on April 2nd in the Florida Derby thread.

The great thing about the Kentucky Derby is that there is a ton of money in the pools and no matter who wins including the favorite you are going to get a nice return on your investment if you win.

This year I am taking a different approach to the Derby and have come down to three horses that I feel have the best chance of winning the Derby and bringing home the money for us.

#13 Nyquist - People are concerned by the distance, I am not at all. Not overly thrilled with the odds but the horse should be the favorite as I said on April 2nd. Should be in a nice stalking position and will need to make the first move around the turn as a cavalry of closers should be in hot pursuit.

#14 Mohaymen - Lost to the top pick last out in the Florida Derby as the favorite. I am putting a line through that race as it was obvious he didn't take to the surface that day. It was an odd set of circumstances and I am not taking away anything from Nyquist's win but this horse just didn't take to the surface and finished way back. Based on works since then, this guy is sitting on a better effort and is primed to go.

#11 Exaggerator a consistent runner and you have to like the fact in the Santa Anita Derby at the first call he was 7th sixteen lengths out of first yet finished first by 6 and a quarter. Beat Mor Spirit who seems to be getting some play but will be nowhere to be found in the end.

I have a feeling that their may be a price or a horse that has been totally overlooked and would lean to Destin and Whitmore that could spoil all the fun. If you are looking for long shot plays these would be it.

Enjoy the race, don't over bet it.




_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310993 - 05/07/16 01:25 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
ATS Consultant

#11 to win
Ex, tri and super's boxes 11,13,9,20,4
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
#310994 - 05/07/16 01:25 PM Re: 2016 Kentucky Derby [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   happy
Owner



Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 151075
Loc: Time to play the Game
John Conte

13-9-16-14
_________________________
Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

Top
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >



Activities offered by links to other sites may be deemed an illegal activity in certain jurisdictions. Viewers are specifically warned that they should inquire into the legality of participating in any games and/or activities offered by such other sites. The owner of this website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any of these games and/or activities offered by the third party site. As a condition of viewing this website viewers agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from the viewers participation in any of the games and/or activities offered by the third party site.

2000-2017 FREAKS Sports and Information Forum. All Rights Reserved.