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#296007 - 10/31/15 02:59 AM Re: Breeders Cup Saturday [Re: FREAK]
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Katie Mikolay Gensler

Race 2: The Juvenile Dirt Sprint Stakes – DAN THE GO TO MAN (5) won convincingly to break his maiden to be one of the top contenders in this field. SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS (4) is a serious threat from start to finish and one of three Ward trainees. RICHIE THE BULL (10) could get a good trip from the outside for another score at KEE.

Picks 5-4-10

Race 3: BC Juvenile Fillies – RACHEL’S VALENTINA (9) has been a sharp sprinter that should be tough going long is she anything like her multiple graded winning dam, RACHEL ALEXANDRA. SONGBIRD (10) has back-to-back grade I wins, but will have to overcome the outside post. NICKNAME (7) won over the slop in the Frizette Stakes to be a player with the expected wet forecast.

Picks 9-10-7

Race 4: BC Turf Sprint – UNDRAFTED (3) hopes to repeat his win in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes. He’s a major player turning for home with good works in preparation for a big return. PURE SENSATION (1) has never lost at the distance with front running speed. LADY SHIPMAN (5) was a disappointing second at 3-5 odds, but right move by the connections to test against graded stakes company with her consistency as she takes on the boys.

Picks 3-1-5

Race 5: BC F&M Sprint – CAVORTING (14) needs to overcome the outside post, but she has tactical speed for a good chance to get her picture taken as she faces older classy ladies first time. ARTEMIS AGROTERA (5) is certainly well rested after a year long layoff, she makes her third BC appearance with a good series of works for a high percentage barn off the bench. DAME DOROTHY (2) has back-to-back GI wins and exits a good try after she lunged at the start.

Picks 14-5-2

Race 6: BC F&M Turf – LEGATISSIMO (3) is one of the toughest Euros to beat this weekend. She has excellent form on the grass going long with multiple Group 1’s victories. STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (11) has been a solid closer on the turf and her last two starts suggests she can handle the wet turf. HARD NOT TO LIKE (1) loved this course and should improve today plus jockey Velazquez back aboard.

Picks 3-11-1

Race 7: BC Sprint – WILD DUDE (8) exits his most impressive effort to be a major player from Cali at 10-1 odds. PRIVATE ZONE (13) has multiple wins at the distance and dangerous with powerful works in the morning. RUNHAPPY (5) was one of the top winners of the recent KEE meet to consider in this spot. Interesting note is that he has a super sharp 6f drill on Oct. 21st.

Picks 8-13-5

Race 8: BC MILE - ESOTERIQUE (9) goes for three straight wins at the same distance and she appears strongest of the Euro shippers even facing the boys. GRAND ARCH (1) seems sharp as ever with a spectacular win in a deep field last time out. The 6yo dangerous tracking the pace. TEPIN (7) dominated in the GI First Lady as she leads into the race in top form.

Picks 9-1-7

Race 9: BRODY’S CAUSE (7) won the Breeders’ Futurity when he came charging from the outside and looks like he’ll continue to move forward in today’s event. GREENPOINTCRUSADER (3) overcame a rough break to win the Champagne Stakes and high purchased ($575K) should handle the stretch out suggests his pedigree. COCKED AND LOADED (5) has sharp breezes to be a danger at long odds with his experience and a win at the distance.

Picks 7-3-5

Race 10: GOLDEN HORN (1) exits an impressive performance winning the G1 Arc, and hopes to be the first Arc winner to win a BC race. He should be forwardly placed for another solid trip depending on the turf conditions. BIG BLUE KITTEN (7) makes a big run every time to be feared late in this spot. THE PIZZA MAN (10) just missed in his latest and should be very tough with a race over the turf.

Picks 1-7-10

Race 11: AMERICAN PHAROAH (4) ready to rebound off his last performance with nine weeks rest and sharp works. He could be the controlling speed of this highly competitive field. TONALIST (1) exits his best effort to win the Jockey Gold Cup second time and tough late if he gets good trip from the rail. HONOR CODE (9) has a good chance to improve off his last start. Hopefully the deep closer can run them down late.

Picks 4-1-9
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#296008 - 10/31/15 03:00 AM Re: Breeders Cup Saturday [Re: FREAK]
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Tom Leach

Race 2/Juvenile Dirt Sprint

(2) Whence is the pick off a much-improved race last time. He showed the ability to rate and then exploded down the stretch and it was a performance too impressive to ignore at 6-1. (4) Sheik of Sheikhs is definitely the one to beat so play both on top in exactas. Exacta part-wheel 2,4 with 2,4,8,10,5

Race 3/BC Juvenile Fillies

(2) Tap to It should improve on the stretchout and with a much better post than the favorite, she's the pick for an upset. Exacta boxes 2-10, 2-1, 2-7, 2-9

Race 4/BC Turf Sprint

(3) Undrafted has looked sensational in training this week and the soft turf will make this race play longer, which will help this colt immensely. Beware of his stablemate (7) Green Mask at a price. Exacta boxes 3-7, 3-2, 3-8, 3-10

Race 5/BC Filly & Mare Sprint

(14) Cavorting has the perfect draw in a race loaded with speed and I think she explodes in the stretch like she did in her 7-furlong race at Saratoga. If she doesn't win, I think (11) Judy the Beauty does. Exacta boxes 14-11, 14-7, 14-2, 14-5

Race 6/BC Filly & Mare Turf

(3) Legatissimo comes off back-to-back grade 1's and she shows strong Racing Post ratings. (6) Queen's Jewel is a price horse that bears watching. Exacta boxes 3-6, 3-9, 3-12, 3-8

Race 7/BC Sprint

(5) Runhappy is in peak form and only a bad break gets him beat. If that happens, watch out for fellow three-year olds (4) Limousine Liberal and (7) Holy Boss. Exacta box of 5-4-7-11

Race 8/BC Mile

(5) Impassable showed huge improvement last time and now goes second-off-the-layoff. Also, he has three wins at a mile. (3) Make Believe and (7) Tepin are strong contenders, too, and I'll also include (6) Tourist in a four-horse box. Exacta box of 5-3-7-6

Race 9/BC Juvenile

(7) Brody's Cause roared down the stretch in his prep win on this Keeneland track and he could even improve in his second try around two turns. (9) Exaggerator and (1) Conquest Big E are others who bear watching off big efforts over this track. Exacta boxes 7-9, 7-1, 7-4, 7-5

Race 10/ BC Turf

(9) Found finished within one length of the favorite back in September and that was on soft ground, so the turf condition could put them close together again. Exacta part-wheels 9,1, over 9,1,10,7,6,5

Race 11/ BC Classic

(9) Honor Code's trainer says his horse has never trained better and Shug McGaughey excels at pointing to spots in the Breeders Cup. I'll bet Honor Code runs down (4) American Pharoah in the final strides. Exacta boxes 9-4, 9-3, 9-2, 9-1

All Stakes Pick 4: 5,3,7,6 with 7,9,1 with 9,1 with 9,4
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#296009 - 10/31/15 03:02 AM Re: Breeders Cup Saturday [Re: FREAK]
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Ellis Starr

Race #11
Breeders' Cup Classic

#6 Effinex - Fair odds 7/2
#1 Tonalist - Fair odds 4/1
#5 Gleneagles - Fair odds 6/1
#9 Honor Code - Fair odds 5/1

Possible bets: Effinex to win and place (or win/place/show) at 7/2 odds or higher. Tonalist to win at odds of 4/1 or more. For a smaller amount, Gleneagles to win or win/place at 6/1 or more.

Possible exacta box: Box 1,5,6,9 (Cost $12 at the $1 minimum level)
Plus Exacta Box 4,5 and exacta box 4,6 (Combining American Pharoah with Effinex and Gleneagles)

One more possible exacta: 1,5,6,9 over ALL (Cost $32 at the $1 level)
These exactas may be worth the risk if American Pharoah does not finish 1st or 2nd.

Why I am not picking American Pharoah to win the Classic:
There is no doubt that American Pharoah is a special horse, with an extraordinary will to win and the ability to do just that, time and again. He has performed consistently all year, with Equibase Speed Figures of 108, 107, 111, 111, 112, 112 and 110 (even in defeat). Most horses would have tailed off at some point during the year, particularly after what can be the grueling Triple Crown season, with the Derby, Preakness and Belmont run in a five week period at three different tracks. American Pharoah is undoubtedly the best of his crop, and one of the best three-year-olds to come along in a very long time. However, he has never faced older horses as he is doing in the Classic and although a number of three-year-olds have won the Classic, the best of those have at least faced if not beaten older foes before their Classic try. Additionally, the best older horses in the classic have run faster than American Pharoah, with Tonalist (123, 123 and 122 recently), Honor Code (126 and 122 in victory this spring and summer) and Effinex (122 and 122 in his best efforts) all 10 or more points superior to American Pharoah. Even Smooth Roller (115) has run faster. Not only has American Pharoah not exceeded a 112 figure this year, neither too has Keen Ice or Frosted, nor have the latter pair faced older horses until now. For those reasons I don't consider those three year olds as win contenders in this year's Classic.

Main contenders:
Effinex will be my top choice to win this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, and not just because I'm known as a contrarian. He has run very well at the distance of one mile and on quarter, winning the Suburban Handicap in July with a 122 figure that he also earned in March. Effinex won the Excelsior Stakes at the distance with a 122 figure in April so achieving that kind of effort is well within his reach, if I can make the case his last two efforts, both sub-par, are not evidence of his current form. Two back in Woodward Stakes, Effinex was nervous behind the gate and perhaps left his best effort back there as well, then earlier this month when beaten by Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Effinex may have had a legitimate excuse as the race was run on a sloppy track. Getting a jockey change to a Hall-of-Fame rider in Mike Smith, Effinex should be racing in fourth or fifth in the early stages, perhaps closer to the pace than Tonalist and definitely closer than Honor Code, so he may have first run on the pacesetters over the other closers, and if he can repeat either his Suburban or Excelsior efforts, he has a legitimate shot to post the upset.

Tonalist gets the ground saving rail for the Classic, as well as John Velazquez, who has been in the saddle for his last four races. The best of those four was earlier this month when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup by nearly five lengths, earning a 123 figure for the second race in a row and a 120 or better figure for the fourth time this year in five races. There is a bit of concern that the sloppy track aided Tonalist and that since he was beaten by Honor Code in both the Metropolitan Handicap and Whitney, Honor Code may be better, but one difference in this year's Classic is there may not be the hot early pace benefiting Honor Code as it did in those races, while Tonalist may be in a better early position and able to capitalize and get the lead in the stretch before Honor Code gets into high gear, resulting in Tonalist winning the Classic.

About the rest: Gleneagles is a three year old the same as American Pharoah, Frosted and Keen Ice but he's run faster than any of them in terms of speed figures. Winning three important Group 1 races in a row this spring, Gleneagles earned the equivalent of 125, 121 and 125 Equibase figures. His connections thought long and hard about running him two weeks ago on soft ground in England but did so anyway, Gleneagles earning the worst finish (sixth) of his career. Although he has never run on dirt and never raced further than a mile, being a son of Galileo there is little doubt about one of those issues, his ability to run a mile and one-quarter, and in my mind not much doubt about dirt as his dam's sire is Storm Cat, one of the best sires of dirt runners in the past quarter century.

Honor Code prepped for the Classic in the one-turn mile Kelso Stakes earlier this month, closing for third and setting him up nicely for a big effort. He too has never raced 10 furlongs but with a career best 126 figure earned winning the Whitney in August, Honor Code has the ability to compete here. That is, provided he gets some pace to run at as he has been last or next-to-last in the early stages in his last six races.
Smooth Roller earned a 115 figure winning his most recent race, the Awesome Again Stakes, but with only four races to date and not having an official timed workout in two weeks I am taking a stand against him. Hard Aces earned a 102 figure winning the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June which also appears too low to be competitive if repeated in this race.
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#296010 - 10/31/15 03:03 AM Re: Breeders Cup Saturday [Re: FREAK]
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Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 171153
Loc: Time to play the Game
Kim Nelson

Race 2

#2 Whence was such an impressive winner here at Keeneland in his last start. He drew off from the rest of the field and looked like a pro doing it. #2 Banree also a recent winner over the Keeneland main track. She is taking on the boys but do note she broke her maiden here at Keeneland against colts. #5 Dan the Go to Man actually beat Whence here early in the meet over a muddy course. He too poses a threat. #3 Noholdingback Bear was an impressive first out winner and expect him to be running at the wire.

Top Pick #2 with #3, #5, #6 and #7

Race 3

#10 Songbird is hard to look past. She has done nothing wrong in 3 starts winning all three by a combined 16 ¼ lengths. Her early speed should help overcome her outside post and she keeps Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the saddle. #9 Rachel’s Valentina, the darling daughter of Rachel Alexandra, is undefeated in 2 starts. She was a clear winner of the Grade 1 Spinaway last out. This is her first time around 2 turns but this very talented filly should love the distance. #8 Dothraki Queen is the hometown favorite from the McPeek barn. She finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Alcibiades but caught a tough trip that day over a sloppy track. She appears to have much more in the tank and like that she has a race over the track. #7 Nickname exits a win in the Grade 1 Frizette over a sloppy track. She was quite impressive drawing clear in that one and deserves a look here.

Top Pick #10 with #2,#7,#8 and #9

Race 4

#1 Pure Sensation is 3 for 3 at this distance on the grass and 2 for 2 this year. Winner last out with Grade 3 company. If he breaks sharp, he could be very tough in here. #3 Undrafted seldom misses a check while keeping the toughest company going. Draws a good post and will be closing strong and expect him to be in the mix. #5 Lady Shipman is the early favorite bringing several triple digit Beyer figures. She has had a tremendous year with 7 wins in 9 starts and is 7 for 8 at this distance.

Top Pick #1 with #2, #3 and #5

Race 5

#4 La Verdad is 6 for 6 this year and making her 3rd start of this form cycle. In her last she won easily which looks to be a prep for this one. Like her for the win here. #14 Cavorting has won her last 3 starts and has a tremendous closing stride. The outside post could be tough but this talented filly is likely to overcome and find her spot on the board. #11 Judy the Beauty missed as the favorite last out but was coming off a brief freshener. She also got caught on the inside rail in that one and had trouble getting running room. She a brilliant filly and can’t leave her out. #6 Super Majesty is a lightly raced filly but has shown signs of real talent and look for a big effort from her.

Top Pick #4 with #6, #11 and #14

Race 6

#5 Photo Call is making her 3rd start of this form cycle winning her 2 previous. She appears to be getting better with age and like her to bring a career best effort here. #3 Legatissimo is a multiple Grade 1 winner and is your 8-5 morning line favorite. She is experienced at this distance and has a 50%-win percentage. #11 Stephanie’s Kitten exits a win in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl over a soft turf. This is a hard knocking mare that has won over $3 million. Always a threat. #12 Secret Gesture is a regular check getter while keeping Graded Stakes company.

Top Pick #5 with #3, #11 and #12

Race 7

#5 Runhappy has run away with his last 4 races including his upset of the Grade 1 Kings Bishop. If he gets out of the gates first, he looks to be a winner at every pole. #13 Private Zone is a brilliant sprinter with over $2 million in earnings. Outside post not so great but he has a ton of class. #4 Limousine Liberal is a lightly raced gelding but has shown signs of raw talent and expect a big effort.

Top Pick #5 with #4, #13 and #14

Race 8

#7 Tepin was so impressive in her last in the Grade 1 First Lady over a soft Keeneland turf. She looks to be hitting her best stride and looks capable of beating the boys here. #3 Make Believe exits a sharp Grade 1 win in France. The Andre Fabre charge is 3 for 4 at the distance and has 2 Grade 1 wins in only 6 starts. #1 Grand Arch winner of the Shadwell Turf Mile Grade 1 here at Keeneland during opening weekend draws the inside post. The Arch gelding loves this turf course.

Top Pick #7 with #1, #3 and #6

Race 9

#7 Brody’s Cause won the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity here in his last start. Like how this colt worked his way through traffic and stayed focused for the win in that one. Look for a big effort again. #3 Greenpointcrusader exits a win in the Grade 1 Champagne and has since turned in a very sharp work over the Keeneland course. #13 Nyquist is a very talented colt that is undefeated in 4 career starts including 3 Graded Stakes. Post is tough but he is so talented he could overcome.

Top Pick #7 with #1, #3, #5 and #13

Race 10

#1 Golden Horn is the 4-5 morning line favorite. He won the Arc de Triomphe last out and is 7 for 8 lifetime keeping Graded Stakes company. History hasn’t been kind to Arc winners coming in to this race and will try to beat him with the American #10 The Pizza Man. He likes this distance and he is having a tremendous year with 3 wins and a 2nd including a win in the Arlington Million. #9 Found comes over with Aidan O’brien and has over a $ 1 million in earnings. #7 Big Blue Kitten consistently post triple digit Beyer numbers and seldom misses a check while keeping the toughest of company.

Top Pick #10 with #1, #7 and #9

Race 11

#9 Honor Code was so impressive in his Whitney win and the horse has been training lights out coming in to this race. He is battle savvy and can work his way to the front in this very tough field. #4 American Pharoah is the Triple Crown winner and the 6-5 morning line favorite. He draws a good post and can take advantage of his early foot. He has been training like the champ he is preparing for this. #2Keen Ice the only horse to beat American Pharoah this year has also been training so well and have to keep him in the exotics.

Top Pick #9 with #1, #2 and #4
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