Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks 1/14 Racing

Aqueduct By Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Majestic Empire (4th race)

First Race
1. Hushhushmushmush 2. Fictionalcharacter 3. Keyaly
The trust factor is low among the likeliest contenders in Wednesday's opener, starting with HUSHHUSHMUSHMUSH, a seven-time beaten favorite on turf and both dirt tracks at Aqueduct recently; he has never been in this cheap. The only other dropdown to $25,000 is FICTIONALCHARACTER, who has no early speed but got within a neck of the choice with a late run Nov. 20; loses Jose Ortiz to the top one, though. KEYALY needs no introduction as he makes 60th start; has beaten several of these and is third back from a layoff.

Second Race
1. Readyheartandsoul 2. Super Nicky 3. Road to Rockport
READYHEARTANDSOUL lays over these based on his maiden win first time back from a break Dec. 5, but has to be approached with some trepidation, since the next logical spot would've been a preliminary allowance against statebreds, and he has yet to establish the ability to put good races back to back; must catch SUPER NICKY. The latter added blinkers and wired maidens in the mud when returned from a layoff in early fall, and that remains his only start for a tag; likely pace player with AMERICAN PROGRESS and DOMER, who is in light off a claim. ROAD TO ROCKPORT was much closer after a half-mile than indicated by the running line Dec. 3, and has since changed hands; improving.

Third Race
1. Frogman Mel 2. Face the Race 3. Sideways Vision
FROGMAN MEL was caught wide throughout from post 9 in his initial try for $12,500, and may be able to save a bit more ground from a better position this time; six of his seven opponents are New York-breds including FACE THE RACE, who was three lengths back of the choice as the 3-2 favorite first time on the inner track. SIDEWAYS VISION gets 10 pounds from the main contenders, while taking a 50% price drop; got brave on the lead under speed-favoring conditions last March 15.

Fourth Race
1. Majestic Empire 2. Strum 3. Spring Blossom
MAJESTIC EMPIRE had one sprint try at Belmont in early fall, and returns with blinkers on with the likelihood of getting better early position from the rail with a short run to the first turn; her dam is a half-sister to three graded stakes-winning routers. STRUM puts the hood back on after closing out 2014 with three races in the slop or on rain-softened turf; figures close with uncoupled stablemate SPRING BLOSSOM, and also FULL OF SUGAR, both of which will appreciate not facing Grade 2-placed House Rules as they did last January.

Fifth Race
1. Abilio 2. Pretension 3. Becker's Galaxy
The fact that in-and-outer ABILIO is reunited with the circuit's leading rider suggets it could be prudent to draw a line through the no-show performance in the slop five weeks ago; win against open $25,000 claimers three back was his fastest race in a year. PRETENSION will probably make a run for the early lead, as he seeks to win off a turf-to-dirt switch for the third time; tough read after troubled trip off a reclaim in the fall. BECKER'S GALAXY was in the money 16 straight before wide trip in 2014 finale at Finger Lakes when perhaps still feeling effects of hard-fought win with new Beyer top; figures close with SOUTHBEACHSANDY, who has had a freshening after a busy 20-start season.

Sixth Race
1. Non Finisce Mai 2. Marc the Sky 3. Zippa Tequila
NON FINISCE MAI was squeezed back at the start, passed five rivals around the turn and sustained the rally to edge MARC THE SKY for the runner-up spot in a promising debut for both fillies on the main track behind 3-5 Sonora; they look like the right two to get through any multi-race exotic plays with, but any improvement from ZIPPA TEQUILA second time out can put that filly in the hunt. IT'S A CURSE is out of Madame Rouge, whose only previous runner won eight races and $140K; judging from Dec. 21 workout ranked 2/98, she may show some early speed.

Seventh Race
1. Piscesbymoonlight 2. Solly's Mischief 3. Maximus Mike
PISCESBYMOONLIGHT had a scheduled start cancelled Jan. 8, so the gelding has had six additional days of rest in the aftermath of an enervating stretch battle that resulted in his best Beyer since a maiden win in October 2011; logical choice dropping down and moving to a better post. SOLLY'S MISCHIEF has been in the money six in a row on fast, good and muddy surfaces since last spring; boosted a notch first off the claim despite sitting out 30-day jail time, which is taken as a positive sign. MAXIMUS MIKE walloped $12,500 N2L rivals off a seven-week layoff, improving to two wins from three starts in two-turn dirt races.

Eighth Race
1. Huge Asset 2. Giantinthemoonlite 3. Adams Note
HUGE ASSET exhibited a pattern of steady improvement from late summer through the end of the year, posting six consecutive exacta finishes moving up the ladder at Monmouth and Parx; he has clearly found a home on dirt. GIANTINTHEMOONLITE is certainly bred for the trip, behind a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning router Giant Moon and several other nice horses including Piscesbymoonlight (see 7th race); beaten five times sprinting in this condition at short odds, so perhaps two turns is the answer. ADAMS NOTE has had a month off since running well twice in 10 days early at the meet; any moisture in the track a potential plus based on Dec. 6 race, when taken back off a clear early lead.

Ninth Race
1. Big Lute 2. Shot to Win 3. Private Irving A
BIG LUTE is a "double fig" with two starts in the fall that tower over his opponents; having established that, he isn't particularly trustworthy two months after giving up a lead at 1-5, and it's worrisome he missed several months after being pulled up last June. SHOT TO WIN is third back from a layoff and likely to contest the early issue; last win came with the same slight turnback from 6 1/2 furlongs. PRIVATE IRVING A got through the N2L condition on the seventh try, and followed last out with a good second in the slop to Artemus Paperboy, who is now in the midst of a four-race win streak.

Spot Plays

Aqueduct (3rd) Mr.na, 4-1
(4th) Vincent Chase, 4-1

Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream - Race #7 - Post: 3:34pm

#12 CANDY MAN CAN (ML=8/1)
#1 COLLINITO (ML=9/2)
#5 COLONEL JORDAN (ML=5/1)


CANDY MAN CAN - This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed figure at the distance and surface. Last race was at Gulfstream in a race with a class number of 90. Dropping drastically in class rating this time puts him in a solid position right here. COLLINITO - Coming off a sixth place finish at Gulfstream, some may pass this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has decent odds today. COLONEL JORDAN - A racer coming back this soon after a sharp outing is a good sign. Strong return on investment for this rider and trainer tandem.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 WALL STREET KITTEN (ML=4/1), #4 ACTIUM (ML=6/1), #3 SUN STORY (ML=8/1),

WALL STREET KITTEN - Has lost as the favorite twice in a row. A repeat is probably in store. ACTIUM - Finished second in his most recent effort with a run-of-the-mill fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group. Have to be concerned about the recent trend and awesome speed figure in the Dec 23rd race. It was this gelding's best at that distance and this one should bounce today. SUN STORY - Looked good on December 23rd, finishing fifth, but no works since is a bit troublesome. Tough to bet on any mount to turn things around if there is no value to taking the chance.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #12 CANDY MAN CAN to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,12] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,5,12] with [1,5,12] with [1,3,5,7,12] with [1,3,5,7,12] Total Cost: $36

Fast Sheet

Race 8 Tampa Bay Downs

3 VONA
8 MIDNIGHT SERENADE

Fast Sheet

Race 3 Aqueduct

5 SIDEWAYS VISION
1 MR. LIT
8 FACE THE RACE

Gulfstream by Ron Nicoletti

RACE 1:
1 STEEL SKY
4 YOLO KITTEN
5 STRIKE T ONE

RACE 2:
3 CENTELLA
7 BULLHEADED LADY
8 ROLL IT GAL

RACE 3:
3 CHARLIE’S PICNIC
5 GOLDEN STORY
9 DETERRENT

RACE 4:
11 SUMMLIKEALADY
5 EXCLUSIVE SYMPHONY
6 I BEAT YOU

RACE 5:
3 ADAPTOR
11 HE’S A MIRACLE
6 ISA TUCKER

RACE 6:
7 LEMON UP
4 GO ROMEO GO
3 OFF THE PAGE

RACE 7:
7 SUWANNEE SON
8 WALL STREET KITTEN
5 ACTIUM

RACE 8:
5 GENERAL A ROD
3 THREE ALARM
4 COZZETTI

RACE 9:
2 GLASGOW GAILES
10 TASK FORCE GLORY
9 ESCONDIDO

RACE 10:
1 LEVERAGED LOAN
4 ALL KEYED UP
9 LONESOME STREET

BEST BET:
RACE 1 – 1 STEEL SKY

LONGSHOT:

RACE 7 - 10 EXPECTED MEETING