Opening Round Action

1/7

CINCINNATI AT HOUSTON (4:30 pm ET)

CINCINNATI +3
HOUSTON -3

DETROIT AT NEW ORLEANS (8:00 pm ET)

DETROIT +10.5
NEW ORLEANS -10.5

1/8

ATLANTA AT NEW YORK G (1:00 pm ET)

ATLANTA +3
NEW YORK -3

PITTSBURGH AT DENVER (4:30 pm ET)

PITTSBURGH -8
DENVER +8

In looking at round 1 right now, my initial thoughts are as follows:

Cincinnati might be able to get a win in this round due to the injuries surrounding the QB spot. Whether it's Delhomme or Yates, I don't think it really matters. Two young teams, with decent defenses that have faltered a bit down the stretch. The key in this one is which QB steps it up. The weather won't be an issue with cold/snow so this also benefits the Bengals. I think the Bengals actually do better on the road so this won't be an issue. I would grab the three it's unlikely to be around on Saturday.

Detroit at New Orleans. How hard is it to buck the Saints right now? The Lions were shredded by Matt Flynn and don't tell me the game didn't matter because Detroit played their starters the whole game. If Flynn can shred them, Brees will certainly shred them. The Saints are a very dangerous team and peaking at the right time. Typically wouldn't give thought to laying double digits in the playoffs, but there's a good reason the line opened at 10.5 and I wouldn't be surprised to see it creep up a bit by game time.

Atlanta at the Giants...... Interesting match up as Atlanta can rack up the points but that's typically at home or in a dome road game. How will their finesse game do in the cold in NY? Is mid 40's even cold? On the flip side, the Giants have basically been in the playoffs since on the road at Dallas a few weeks ago and they have come back into form that was there during their 6-2 start. I think the difference in this game will be defense and the Giants are better at it. Lay the three early as I see this one moving up.


Pittsburgh at Denver..... It's been a long time since a home team division champ is a 8 point dog in the first round. Denver backed their way into the AFC West title and playoffs losing their last 3. Pittsburgh comes in with key injuries at RB and I don't think Big Ben is at 100%. When Denver played the elites they were beaten solidly. Was the NE game at home an aberration of Brady wanting to show he is still one of the best or was it that the Broncos can't hang with the big boys as of yet. Cleveland gave Pittsburgh all they could handle and the road games for the Steelers haven't been pretty. Cleveland, SF, Baltimore all come to mind. The public will be all over the Steelers, after all Denver scored a whopping 3 against KC at home, shouldn't the Steelers D do the same? With weather in the high 30's to low 40's, no break for Denver. If you play it, you got to lay it.


Offbeat subject, I look forward to crazy weather games every year. You know those games in a blizzard where you can't see, snow is everywhere and it reminds you of being a kid playing in the field or back yard. Not this year. Sure some snow flurries but that's nada. There was a brief time in the Miami/Buffalo game a few weeks ago but it was so brief it didn't count.

I looked up a 10 day forecast and mentioned them in my write ups, how sick is it to see mid 40's in NY in January. Mid 60's to 70 in Houston. Mid 40's in Denver........ bahhhhh no fun at all.........

Then again the NFL would just cancel the games anyway ala Philadelphia a few years ago...... Pffft...

Post your picks, thoughts and let's get some talk going.

Well I was right about the 3 not being available on Saturday for the Bengals, it's now Houston -4. Yates is going to start and the weather will be in the 70's for this one. This is one that has me a little leary with the line movement as you typically don't see playoff lines going from -3 to -4 but the public has supported Houston here. I am not in line with the public and will recommend Cincy +4 in another tight game between these two.

Det/NO line has stayed at 10.5 for now. Still like the Saints.

Let's see what happens and I'll take another peak for Sunday later tonight.

1-1 on Saturday. After Cinci took a 7-0 lead they gave up the quick TD drive to Houston and pretty much disappeared after that.

Dalton looked like a rookie and the defense which had been pretty good all year just wilted. Public got this one right and I was off.

Saints took care of business in the second 1/2 and dispatched of a pesky Lions team. If the Lions stay in tact they can be a scary team in the next few years.

Let's get to Sunday.......

Giants line has stayed at -3 and the weather is calling for 43 degrees. Atlanta has the better defense and Turner will get his. I just have that feeling that the Giants are going to make some noise in this one. Hopefully it's not the trash truck backing up out of the stadium but the fans going nuts. Manning has been amazing the last few weeks and momentum is a funny thing.

Still sticking with the Giants at -3 here.

Steelers in the -8 to -9 range and we are looking at 30 degrees with windchills in the 20's. That doesn't help Ben and his hand issue nor the fact their starting RB in Mendenhall is out.

Steelers on the road have been poor ATS recently and Denver hasn't been a bargain ATS at home.

This is just one of those games that smells like a grind em out type of affair. I just can't see Tebow doing much against this defense and it just may be one of those 17-3, 21-3 type Pittsburgh win. If you're of that belief you have to lay it. If not, don't play it at all. It's Pittsburgh or pass here.

Another 1-1 day ATS. Giants an easy winner and then the upset of the weekend with Denver.

When the game was over, I said New England would be a 14 point favorite and the line opened at 13 and is 14 at a bunch of spots.

Could we be looking at New England/Baltimore and New Orleans/Green Bay??

I'll post about this later in the week.

Here we go with the divisional round.

Saints/49ers

You have a Saints high powered offense vs a 49ers strong defense and on the flip side an under average 49ers offense vs an under average Saints defense.

On the offense side the Saints are about 166 yards a game better. On the defensive side the 49ers are about 53 yards better.

Let's face it the 49ers are going to try to grind the clock on long drives. They have a nice home field advantage which saw them go 7-1 at home. The loss came in their first home game vs Dallas 24-27 back in September as a 3 pt underdog. They haven't lost since and beat playoffs teams Pittsburgh and the NY Giants. One of their other 3 losses came on the road at Baltimore.

With all that said, can they beat the Saints? Absolutely.

The Saints come in on a 9 game win streak with their last loss surprisingly at St Louis on October 30th. In those 9 wins they have outscored their opponents by 154 points or on average by 17 points. Put into context in 2 of the 9 games they won by 3 and 5 and it shows you how they have just blitzed their opponents.

They beat playoff teams Atlanta twice, Detroit, and the NY Giants and Houston, while losing to Green Bay as another playoff team.

The kink in the armor for the Saints is the pass defense. In the past several games, Detroit passed for 380, Atlanta 434, Tennessee 314, Detroit 379, NY Giants 392. But this is misleading as teams were forced to pass as the Saints took charge of the games.

The Saints historically haven't been a great road team and as mentioned earlier SF has a nice home field advantage.

Let's face it though Brees vs Smith. A high powered offense that is relentless and offensively challenged 49ers team. But the intangible comes into play as the Saints have played 12 games this year in a dome setting. They are 4-3 ATS outdoors and did you know that there are only 2 other teams in NFL history that scored 40 points or more in 4 straight games. They both didn't cover game 5.

Add the fact that since 1980 Divisonal Home Dogs are 3-0 SU and ATS.

The Freak says take the 3.5 and buy it up to 4 -120 as insurance.

Broncos vs Patriots

Tebow vs Brady Part II

You certainly remember Denver was up 16-7 vs NE at home until the turnovers and a big 2nd qtr by NE put them in front 27-16 at the break.

You do remember the 2 play OT game vs Pittsburgh last week. Yes the KO counted as 1.

You do remember that NE hasn't won a playoff game since 2008.

Denver has a -12 turnover ratio and NE is +17 on the year.

Denver on average scored 20 pts while giving up 24. NE scored 32 while giving up 21.

Short prep week for Denver, a nice relaxing in their beds week for NE.

This is going one of two ways. A severe ass beating by the Patriots or a game that is tight into the 4th quarter.

The NFL wants ratings, they want to sell more Tebow jerseys and have the Tebow magic show up. I believe they are going to get just that. Not calling for the outright upset but I think the weatherman is going to help Denver and they can run on the Pats defense. Question is with it being as cold as it's supposed to be (24 with windchill) how effective is Brady going to be.


Take Denver + 13.5 in Priiiiiiiiiime Time

The SF/NO game was fun to watch, probably the craziest last 4 minutes of an NFL game in a super long time, regular season or playoffs. What I think will become an instant classic. I stated that the pass D was the problem for NO, when Smith has a game like he did today that proved to be the difference.

As for the DEN/NE game, CBS and the NFL didn't get what they wanted. If you read my write up I said it was either going to be a severe ass beating by the Pats or a tight game into the 4th. The severe ass beating took place right from the start and you just knew it was over after that first NE drive.

The weather wasn't a factor for Brady he shredded that DEN D or lack thereof.

Whether you like Tebow or not, you got to give the guy his props. Hopefully Elway and company can groom him into a passing QB. He has the running skills, reminds me a lot of Mike Vick, Randall Cunningham and Steve Young with the running ability. He'll be fine and while I hate to be wrong in the selection, they will go back 10-15 years down the road and this will be the game that changed his career.

Let's get to Sunday's games......

I am under the weather and not feeling so hot so no big write ups here.

I think the Baltimore defense shuts down Yates and wins this one going away. Defense, cold weather and the first home playoff game for Baltimore is more than enough to handle the 7.5

The NYG/GB will be another cold weather affair. I keep having visions of the NYG win at GB when they went on to beat the Pats in the Super Bowl. This team just has that same feel and they are hot and peaking at the right time.

I'll take the NYG +7.5 and I may be crazy but I think they will win this SU as well.

Hopefully I break the 1-1 run with a 2-0 ending.

Another one of those 1-1 days losing by the hook with Baltimore. I woke up and it was 17-3 in the first qtr. Baltimore did absolutely nothing after that and their defense didn't get the job done.

How many people wish they kicked the FG instead of going for it on 4th and inches at the goal line. In any event the game shouldn't have been that close and next week can be ugly.....

The NYG got the job done and as I thought they won SU. This team is going to the Super Bowl and won't be denied.

Looks like a repeat of SB 28......

But that's just a thought for now, I'll have my official selections soon.

Almost forgot to post who I like for today.

I would play a 7 point teaser with Baltimore +14 and the Giants +9

My only side play would be NYG -2

Off to watch the games, sorry I forgot to post earlier.

2-0 for the day.

And I was right about the Giants going to the Super Bowl and a rematch with NE from a few SB ago.

Opening line for the SB is NE -3.5 with the O/U at 55

Early betting shows 59% on NE and 55% on the over.

No need for me to wait to make my prediction on who wins......

Take the NY GIANTS +3.5 and the ML to win SU.

Nice way to end the season even if I didn't have any money on a single game all year. It totally sucks to be unemployed for 2 years, have no $ and be good at picking games.

Maybe someone will back me in college hoops.

Hope you tailed me in the playoffs and during the year. It was nice to go out on top even if not making a single penny doing it.

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